Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler will reject the team’s one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer, writes FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (he also previously tweeted the news). Fowler has been widely expected to do just that despite the problems he faced after rejecting a QO from Chicago last winter, as he even said himself recently on ESPN’s Sportscenter that he would be a free agent again this offseason.
Fowler, 31 in March, had a career year at the plate, hitting .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases — providing well-rounded value in every facet of his offensive game. As the switch-hitter himself told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last month, though, it was questions about his glove that led to skepticism over Fowler’s value and ultimately prompted him to linger on the free agent market. As Fowler explained in that interview, he altered his positioning in center field, believing himself to be playing too shallow (the Cubs agreed), and the results manifested in both his Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved marks. Both metrics graded him as one run above average, which isn’t a ringing endorsement but is a significant step forward for a player who had delivered negative ratings in each of the five previous years.
Of course, if Fowler is an average or even slightly below average center fielder, he could probably perform well in either corner outfield slot, and there are undoubtedly teams that would like to see him in either left field or right field (and atop their lineup) in 2017. His reported near-deal with the Orioles last February, for instance, would’ve sent Fowler to right field, and the market will surely present similar opportunities this winter as well. Fowler, though, has considerably less competition on the free agent market for outfielders this time around and is also coming off a better all-around season in terms of offense, defense and baserunning (he rated as MLB’s eighth-best baserunner in 2016, per Fangraphs’ BsR metric).
While the Cubs would probably love to have Fowler back on a short-term deal once again — they could sort the subsequent outfield logjam via offseason trades and platoons in 2017 — the market should present a considerably better offer for Fowler this time around. On paper, he makes sense for any number of teams, including the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners, Rangers and Athletics, among others. While not all of those teams will have interest in Fowler at the price he could command, interest should still be great enough that he’ll land the payday that eluded him last winter. MLBTR rated him sixth on our top 50 free agent list and pegged him for a four-year, $64MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
All these guys rejecting the QO.. as expected. Might do better only writing articles about someone who accepts it. Might be easier.
The rejection of the QO’s brings up more discussion, such as which teams these players will sign with, if or when they will sign, what teams will be giving up, whether or not certain teams should give up a pick for these guys, and debates over whether or not it’s a good system. The acceptance of QO’s becomes a big story but falls flat because there are far more rejections of the QO that create a more complicated situation. Draws more readers.
I’d argue that both rejecting and those accepting QO’s make a complicated (and interesting) situation. As the sample size of players given QO’s keeps going up (and the dollar amount continuing to rise each season) we are learning more about they QO system and how it impacts the offseason for both players and for teams. It is obvious that it drives down the average cost of free agents who have a QO attached. It also benefits teams that issue QO’s and have them rejected, BUT it takes time for that draft pick to be evaluated and possibly reach the majors. The QO system is NOT going to give quick rewards to the issuing team (now if QO draft picks were tradeable…oh my that would be interesting). The QO system is however by almost all accounts not perfect. Both teams and players have to really put a lot of thought into the player and the market or they can get burned by making the ‘wrong’ choice.
Cardinals will prob take him
Check Cards history on spending. I doubt they will pay that for Fowler. Other teams will out bid them if they bid at all.
The majority of Cardinal Nation doesn’t put much stock in our General Managers moves, trades, and free agent acquisitions. More of his moves have failed than have succeeded!! He talks a good talk, but rarely can come up with anything but his so called low hanging fruit. Years of low hanging fruit sooner or later takes over the whole barrel.
The majority isn’t very smart. They’ve missed the playoffs 1 out of the last 6 seasons. Tell your gas station buddies they don’t know what they’re talking about.
Idk what majority your thinking of… Mo is a very disciplined GM.. Doesn’t panic or do silly stuff. Show me any GM that has a 100% success rate on draft and FA signings.
Cards don’t need Fowler. not with QO and the years needed contract wise.
Don’t be so sure. Personally, I hope they find a CF by trade, but I certainly wouldn’t mind Fowler
Not a chance. 31 years old, loss of draft pick and a below average CF. Plenty of reasons to pass.
Actually, he was above average this year.
Even so, in one year, he isn’t worth what it will cost.
Nah.
The Cubs should bring back Fowler and package Almora/Soler/Candelario for a high-upside pitching prospect. This team has some huge rotational holes to fill following next season, and they really should start thinking about that now!
Gaaaaaah.
The Cubs aren’t looking for a high-upside pitching prospect.
They snagged Hendricks in a hastily-cobbled-together trade involving Ryan Dempster. Arrieta came in a swap for Scott Feldman.
The goal seems to be to find a boring guy with MLB experience, relatively few walks or HRs, and the ability to come over for Jorge Soler, Jeimer Candelarion, and a pitcher like Jake Stinnett. They’ll wait until they find someone who won’t demand Jimenez/Happ/Cease/Clifton, and quietly make the trade.
The Cubs will have a fifth starter for three years. The other team will have three legitimate players. Cubs fans will be pissed. Other teams fans will say, “for that, you could have had (insert their version of the same guy)’, and he’ll put up good numbers for the Cubs for three years.
Then, Dylan Cease, Jose Paulino, Clifton, Oscar De La Cruz, and others will be the next men up.
They can get a 5th starter for Soler alone, the goal with adding Almora and Candelario would be to get a #3 starter with strong #2 upside and possibility of filling some bullpen depth.
The goal isn’t to get “a fifth starter”. After all, they axed Hammel, who was better than that.
They want a guy with three years of control that is better than average on walks. But, other than that, kinda boring.
Soler plus Candelario and Stinnett for that, and they’re swell for 2017.
His positioning only improves his defense in a ballpark with smaller dimensions. He only gets to balls that are easy to get to. He would still be a below average CFer in most stadiums. The Cubs knew how to utilize him in Wrigley and it worked. Don’t let the defensive numbers fool you, though. He’s the same player.
He plays 81 games on the road, 2 at sf 3 at la and 4 at Cleveland in playoffs. Solid player who will get his deserved payday. Class act who helped Cubs run away with division and win the World Series .
He is definitely a solid player. But he’s the same player he was last off-season. Great OBP is his selling point.
Someone will give Fowler four years. I doubt it’s the Cubs.
They’ll add the 32nd pick (or so) in the draft. And add a quality player that is willing to outwork his rivals.
And, in four years, he’ll be a nice player to add to the MLB roster, or a nice piece to trade. MLB Drafting is about not missing your easy chances.
Will be back with the Cubs in no time, on a not so rich contact, as he has burnt bridges already, and no other team will want to fall victim of his “screw over” again…. Fool
I guess I missed the commentary where Fowler is a bad egg.
Someone will give him four years. And he’ll probably go somewhere that does. I will miss him. Best CF the Cubs have had for multiple years in 50 seasons.
They had Kenny lofton for 3 months. He was their last true leadoff hitter. They were very stupid to not keep him.
Why I included the ‘multiple years’ comment.
The only burned bridges during last offseason were likely on the Orioles end for their handling of their deals, but don’t let that stop you from calling him a fool for returning to the World Series favorite (who happened to have won if you missed it.) He didn’t get the deal he wanted or even was expected to get, so he returned to where he felt most comfortable instead of moving his family for a below average deal.
I’d love it if he signed a 2 year deal with the cubs and 35mil or 4 years and an opt out after 2 years. They would just need to convince heyward not to opt out in 2018. I think he goes elsewhere.. Almora Jr will shine. I’m thinking Fowler goes back to the Rockies. Blackmon cab move to right. Or Blackmon is traded for someone.
Why would you not want Heyward to opt out after the year he just had? He was horrendous. No chance he is giving up that contract unless he seriously turns it around.
I see the Rockies having no interest in Fowler. Even if they were inclined to trade Blackmon they still have Tapia who has his feet wet. Signing an older cf in which he’s sure to regress defensively doesn’t make sense for that expansive OF. Don’t get me wrong Fowler is a great player but the Rockies contending for a playoff spot is not contingent upon there offense. Their needs revolve around building around there three starters and reconstruction of their pen. Every trading one of Gonzalaez or Blackmon they are still pretty well set in the OF with Dahl Tapia and Blackmon or CarGo. Now they might want to add a RH compliment that can play all three of spots but Fowler doesn’t strike as a need or want.
I LOVE the metrics arguments. They relieve a person of the need to use their eyes and brains. So Dexter is a blow average fielder because the METRICS say so…. I am damned glad that the metrics were nowhere to be found when he dove in centerfield to make key catches all season and in the World Series. Oh, and when he was not in center field, guess what happened? His team lost…and in large part because he was not there to stop balls from falling in and the opposition from scoring runs. So you can rely on your metrics. But even the father of Sabermetrics, Bill James (cue the heavenly music) is clear that metrics are a GUIDE to begin the analysis and cannot be relied upon as you still need to use your eyes, common sense and your gut.
Sorry–below average.
He made diving catches on balls that good center fielders get to easily. Flashy plays are not what makes someone food on defense. He’s a slightly below average CF.
The Cubs didn’t lose any of the games he didn’t play in because he wasn’t on defense. Maybe you could say they lost some because he wasn’t at the top of their line up (I believe they started scuffling around the time he got injured, and whether or not those events are related is a different story) but every player who played CF this year in his place is a much better defender than him, except maybe Chris Coghlan (who I don’t like as a player so take that how you wish.)
But the metrics were there to be found, they recorded all of it.
he is definitely below average. almora is the best centerfielder on the team and heyward second. I’m talking defensively just to make it clear folks.
Fowler is so overrated.
He’s very underrated.
How? A dozen teams would want him.
He’s rated exactly where he should be.
Best of luck Dex, deserve your pay day
The Cubs were a better hitting team with Fowler leading off by far. He’s extremely disciplined at the plate, has respectable power and speed. They could easily afford to bring him back, but they’d have to trade a few of their young outfielders like Almora and possibly Soler.