2:40pm: Hellickson tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that he was leaning toward declining the qualifying offer but changed his mind after multiple teams expressed reluctance to part with a draft pick when speaking to Boras (Twitter link).
1:11pm: Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson has accepted the one-year qualifying offer and will return to the Phillies for the 2017 season a $17.2MM salary, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). Hellickson, a client of the Boras Corporation, will become the fourth player to ever accept a QO, joining outfielder Colby Rasmus, left-hander Brett Anderson and catcher Matt Wieters — each of whom accepted a $15.8MM qualifying offer last winter.
[Related: Updated Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]
The news on Hellickson comes as somewhat of a surprise, given the dismal market for starting pitching. The 29-year-old Hellickson (30 next April) looked to be one of a select few arms that could be expected to deliver a quality season’s worth of innings in 2017 and, as such, was one of the few rotation options projected to receive a multi-year deal in free agency. However, Hellickson and his representatives have had the past week to survey the free-agent market while weighing the decision to accept Philadelphia’s offer, and clearly his camp wasn’t comfortable enough with his potential earning power to forgo a one-year deal at $17.2MM. That sum actually exceeds Hellickson’s career earnings to date, so his reluctance to pass on it is understandable from that point of view. He’ll now look to repeat was a strong 2016 season in the Phillies’ rotation and enter the open market next winter in advance of his age-31 season. If he’s able to do so, he could find himself in position for an even more lucrative deal, as he’d be coming off a two-year platform of quality work as opposed to the rebound campaign he enjoyed with the Phils this past year.
Acquired from the D-backs last winter in what amounted to be a salary dump, Hellickson tossed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball for the Phillies this year, averaging 7.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate. That represented a continuation of a strong second half in 2015, giving Hellickson a 3.74 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over his past 240 1/3 innings at the big league level. If he’s able to continue on at that pace in 2017, he should have no issues finding a sizable multi-year deal next winter, and there’s reason to believe that he could do so without needing to burden himself with a qualifying offer. The collective bargaining agreement is being renegotiated as we speak, and the flawed QO system is one of the main subjects of the newest wave of collective bargaining talks. Some reports have suggested that the new CBA will prevent players from being eligible for a QO in consecutive years, while other speculation has centered around eliminating the QO system altogether.
The long-term financial outcome for Hellickson remains to be seen, but his short-term prospects are set in stone at this point. After accepting the QO, he cannot be traded until June 15 of next season without his consent, so he’ll return to a Phillies rotation that’ll also include Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff. Philadelphia has a number of young arms that can compete for the final spot in that rotation, including right-handers Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher and Ben Lively. That group should give manager Pete Mackanin a solid starting mix in 2017, so the challenge for GM Matt Klentak, president Andy MacPhail and the rest of the Phillies’ front office will be to improve a lineup that was one of the worst, if not the worst in all of baseball last season. The Phils have already added one veteran bat to the mix in the form of Howie Kendrick, and they’ll presumably look to add some more respectable pieces to help round out a lineup that will be centered around Odubel Herrera and a hopefully improved Maikel Franco in 2017.
The Phillies will not receive the compensatory draft pick they likely expected to acquire when issuing Hellickson the QO in the first place, although having a capable arm back in their rotation on a one-year deal isn’t a disastrous outcome, even if it comes at somewhat of an overpay. Philadelphia, after all, has virtually no money committed to its long-term books, as Hellickson will join Kendrick ($10MM), recently acquired right-hander Pat Neshek ($6.5MM) and injured lefty Matt Harrison ($13.25MM plus a $2MM buyout of his 2018 option) as the only guaranteed contracts on next year’s roster. That, plus a modest projection of $12.8MM to four arbitration-eligible players (which could dip if Cody Asche and/or Jeanmar Gomez is non-tendered) brings them to a current Opening Day payroll projection of just $77.7MM (including pre-arb players). For a team that has previously spent as much as $177.7MM on its Opening Day payroll, the addition of Hellickson at $17.2MM is hardly a financial burden.
Taking a step back, the removal of Hellickson from the free-agent market takes an already terrible crop of starters and thins it even further. Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Jason Hammel are the top three starters available this winter, and teams in need of other arms will be left with few options. Those teams could turn to bounce-back candidates like Andrew Cashner, Edinson Volquez, Jake Peavy, Jorge De La Rosa and Doug Fister or look to get creative by signing someone such as Travis Wood and converting him back into a starter or pursuing international arms like Korea’s Kwang-hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang and Woo-chan Cha.
Otherwise, the trade market will be the most obvious method for teams to add to their respective rotations, though the lack of viable alternatives that are available through other means should place an abnormally high premium on rotation help. That was always going to be the case anyway; Hellickson’s subtraction from the free-agent class doesn’t create a shortage of pitching, but it certainly creates even more scarcity and should force one more team to get creative in seeking a starter, as he’ll now be returning to a team that didn’t otherwise seem like a plausible fit for him on a multi-year deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
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dumb
Dumb, which?
Offering it? Or accepting it?
If he does well this season, both sides win on the gamble.
Even if he stinks this year I’d hardly call it a gamble. $17 million for one year of baseball is a lot of money. Especially when it exceeds his career earnings to this point. Doesn’t matter what he makes after that.
Somewhat surprised by this because of the lack of SP on the FA market, but not surprised since I’m sure most teams that showed interest didn’t think he was worth the contract and losing a draft pick. Welcome back Jeremy!
That’s a nice raise for a guy who had an okay season but nothing special.
Huge overpay for a team going nowhere in 2017. Only hope is he can be as good as he was in 16 which probably is a reach and then deal him in July when they are 15 games out.
Or, if he has another good season, give him another QO and he bolts.
There is a chance, with the new CBA, there won’t be qualifying offers next year.
WHOA!!!! lol ok wasn’t expecting that! So that thins an already thin pitching free agent market
Will be one of the richer Opening day starters this year. Hey he gets big money on a no name team, so now he can sit back and live the high life under very little stress- even if he sucks because no one will notice- as this team is going nowhere next season. Smart move Boras
Too much money to leave on the table. Smart move on his part.
Any chance Philly offered the QO thinking he wouldn’t accept? Just to cause someone to use a draft pick?
Of course that was their thinking. They got burned though. Not surprised that he accepted. He was probably getting offered 2/30 or 3/40 type of deals and 1/17 made more sense.
I think 3/40 would have been better than one year and 17.2 mil, for a guy like him.
If he had 3/40 on table he would have taken it..
Not a bad decision on his part on QO.
If he had 3/40 on table he would have taken it..
Not a bad decision on his part on QO.o.
My guess is that the market probably valued him somewhere around 3/$42, but then would want to take $10-$15 million off of that for the QO. That means he was probably getting offers around 3/$27 and decided that the 1/$17.2mm was a better deal.
They absolutely offered it thinking and hoping he wouldn’t accept. They don’t have a lot of use for a 3/4 starter for 1 year/17mil, coming off his best year in ages, while they rebuild.
Definite one year over pay but worth the risk.
If he repeats the season he had in 2016 he’s more attractive at this year’s deadline than he was at last year’s deadline. Phillies could eat a ton of money and flip him for similar value to that pick.
Ha, the Faillies are so dumb. of course he was going to take the 17 million. He got a 10 million dollar raise.. that is life changing money and even if he is bad next year he will still get a nice contract because he won’t have a QO attached to his name. He is looking at what guys who don’t have QO attached and even the crap is getting good money.
They overplayed a little bit for a good pitcher
Of course he is
it was a no lose for the Phils. worst case scenario; he sucks on a sucky team and then he’s gone. Best case; he has a continuation of last season, and becomes a decent trade chip. No such thing as a bad 1 year deal, especially when they have plenty of room in their budget. No idea why so many people are freaking out over this.
It’s not bad because of the salary it’s bad because of the loss of a draft pick. Not only do they not receive a pick, they lose the bonus pool money that comes with it.
Obviously they would have preferred that he not accept, but there was no downside to offering the QO
But if they don’t offer him a QO, they can’t get the pick or bonus pool money. They aren’t really losing a draft pick or pool money, they’re missing out on a chance to acquire another pick and more money by him accepting, but again, there’s really nothing they could do to prevent that.
This. The Phillies have enough money to make this risk. As you stated, worst case, he sucks and he’s gone in a year. Best Case 1, he plays well and they trade him. Best Case 2, he plays well and they hit him with another QO (if they can’t trade him again) and maybe they get a pick. Teams like the Royals, Rays, A’s can’t take this risk because they can’t afford the committment, but the Phillies can.
Top two FA starters this year going into a much stronger FA market next year. I’m not trying to discredit his talent or ability, but this year’s performance and market were about as good as it could’ve been for Jeremy.
“Guaranteed money”? If you want to talk guaranteed money Hellickson’s floor was the QO amount. There was likely double the QO amount out there after the first phone call in “guaranteed money”.
I assume they surveyed the market and found that that wasn’t there. Mediocre players can sometimes get tied down by the QO, and, while he certainly doesn’t have to exceed $17 million AAV to reject, if he was getting offers like 2/22, he has to accept. He’s a decent pitcher, and a nice guy to have in a rotation, but he’s guy limited upside, and I think the fact that the Phillies didn’t find a real offer for him at the deadline suggests that the league isn’t really buying in yet. If he does it again next year, he’s probably looking at $70-80 million
Bartolo Colon just got $12.5MM on a one year and Dickey got eight. Jesse Chavez got $5.75MM. I find it almost impossible to believe there were not multiple 3/30 deals out there minimum.
Scott Boras has a little more insight into the market and obviously disagrees.
Scott Boras had his eyes on $17MM on a one year for a middle of the rotation guy.
I would think his best offer was probably about 3/$33MM for an $11MM AAV. If you take the QO you’re only betting that after this year you can at least find a 2/$15.8MM offer to come out in the same position. That’s less than Mike Pelfrey money got when he was two years older, after Pelfrey was a total disaster for three years with the Twins. There are numerous other examples of pitchers exceeding a 2/$15.8MM contract with even Hellickson’s historical level of production. This gives him the chance to come out ahead if he puts together another year like he had in 2016, with very little downside risk except for a major injury.
I called this when he was offered the QO. What Boras and Jeremy quickly figured out is that no team was going to prioritize giving up a pick to sign him. It doesn’t matter that he was among the top Free Agents, because he still is a mediocre starter. Teams were going to look at every other option before signing him. If they couldn’t make a trade, they would look in=house, and that may mean waiting into spring training for someone to get desperate.
Didn’t stop Ian Kennedy from taking the QO in a much more loaded free agent class last year
Maybe they move him now?
I don’t think they can until June.
Who would want him at that salary?
Large market teams that know they can just take on the contract and not give up much in return.
Unsurprising IMO. He’s a back-of-the-rotation type, and I think that draft pick compensation would have affected him greatly. All in all, though, I believe Klentak when he said that he’d be happy either way. Hellickson gives them a bit more certainty in a young rotation, can be traded if they fall out of contention, and it’s not exactly a huge risk given their payroll flexibility
The Phils are likely surprised, but they can afford the hit. So instead of a draft pick, they can flip him at the trade deadline for a prospect(s); either way, they get SOMETHING back…..
Like everyone, my surprise is that he decided to stay. Calling him a “back of rotation” guy is generous. At least in terms of what he’s shown. Now, some do improve late, so there’s a hope there.
Just confusing he’s staying, considering he’ll go from belle of the ball this year to a wall-flower praying for some attention next.
Exactly how is calling him a back of the rotation guy generous? That’s exactly what he is.
1. He can not be traded until June 15.
2. Scott Boras is his agent, so I think Boras knows what the market is like.
3. There may be no QO next year. Even if there is a QO in the new CBA if he is traded there will be no QO.
$91,000 per inning if he pitches 189 innings again next season. That’s a nice chunk of change
Guys; not worth 1.7 million let alone 17 million. He’s a 5th or 5th starter at best, that gets you 17 million ? Financial structure is a** backwards
A 5th starter is worth plenty more than 1.7 million. 180 league average innings is worth money – that’s 3/4 starter territory. Even with regression, 1.7 mil is chump change.
how many #5’s pitched 189 innings, under 4 ERA and won 12 games for a lousy team? He did a good job for PHIL. SOMEONE has to pitch those innings.
In a world where Ian Kennedy gets 80M, Mike Leake gets 85M, Samardzija gets 90M, Hellickson for 1/17M isn’t that bad especially for a team that can gamble on a repeat season. They don’t owe much money to anyone. I’d rather have the draft pick, but who cares if he accepts. If he declines, the next highest pitcher in terms of MLB innings is Adam Morgan
That samardzija contract will bite the giants in the ace. I guarantee he will not finish that contract with the giants. I said this last year when he got overpaid by 50mil. He’s at best a #4.
$17.2. No-Brainer.
It’s all good. It was a win/win situation for the Phillies. If he declined, ok. They get a draft pick. If he accepted, ok. They have the veteran SP they needed to get anyway. The amount he’s going to get paid next season makes absolutely no difference to them. They’ve got money to burn. Heck, Matt Harrison will probably never throw a pitch for them, and they owe him another $15.25 MM. And guess what: they’re fine with that. Including him in the Hamels deal allowed them to get a better package of prospects. Sometimes, a rebuilding team has to do things like this to get back to where they want to be. I think, in the end, the Phillies will find themselves in a pretty good spot. I believe it says something about an organization when a free agent starting pitcher has an opportunity to make a mint with several contending teams, yet chooses to stay with the club he’s on. He said all along that he likes being a Phillie. Looks like he meant it.
I get taking the 17.2 mil after your first good season, but he probably should have looked for a multi year deal because he will most likely have regression.
Only issue here is this keeps another young arm in AAA to start season but otherwise need one veteran starter on that staff.
The Phillies have said all along that they will have a veteran starter to head the rotation. If not Hellickson, it would’ve been someone else like Fister. They saw last year that you can never have enough pitching.
I like this a lot because hopefully we get something out of him at the deadline this year. We need a veteran in the rotation this year the young arms can’t do it all alone. It is unfortunate a young arm stays down but maybe we could send a young arm or two in trades. I’m okay with this.
I think it was a good move, 17.2 mill is not chump change and if he has another decent year he will still be in line for a multi year deal. If he has a bad year, at least he got his 17.2 mill and won’t have another QO hanging over his head.
I think this was a no brainer. If he repeats next year, he’ll get a multiyear offer. Probably less aav, but still good enough. If he doesn’t repeat, then he doesn’t get QO (if it still exists). No QO over his head, someone will give him a contract anyway (barring injury or seriously disastrous results) and slots him as a 5th man in the rotation to chew up innings. Good move on his part to accept.
$ is a non-factor for this team. Now has two chips at deadline with Kendrick and Hellickson. Need to overpay again for another vet. Easier way to stockpile prospects.
Over/under 70% he’s traded at the deadline?
Strange gamble by Helli. He was easily one of the 3 best SP available this year and now he’s heading into next years extremely crowded free agent class. I like the gamble though, he must be confident in his stuff and having another solid year. Gotta like that in a player.
Smart move. Grab the big money while he can. He’s not that good.
Good number three / four starter , but 17 million is an overpay !
phils have lots of money and nothing to spend on it, so that part of it is of no real consequence.
Ok so I guess the Phillies will trade him and some cash at this summer’s deadline. Having a veteran starter around to soak up innings for the first half of the season isn’t the worst outcome for them, even if they have to pay a premium for it.
anyone saying he should’ve hit the market is wrong. 17 million is more than any aav he would’ve gotten. and 17 million is a ton of money. collect it while you can and pitch for your next contract
Another example why the QO system is flawed. He’s a solid pitcher–but with a career ERA+of 101.. he had three consecutive rough years from 2013-2015. By no stretch of the imagination is the the type of guy who is irreplaceable that he needs to have this albatross around his neck. For first tier players, I can see the argument. Not for this level of performance,
This was a good sign for the phillies, Hellickson had a solid season last year, was their most consistent starter. But I was hoping the angels would take a chance on him.
If he regresses, a lot more millions will be left on the table. I think he would have found a taker esp in this pitching market.