We know that the Cardinals are interested in exploring an extension with righty Carlos Martinez, though there’s no news of progress (or even earnest engagement) to this point. But new contracts are often sorted out during the spring, and the sides will need to discuss money one way or another since Martinez is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility.
Only 100 days past his 25th birthday, Martinez is young enough to believe he has plenty of good years ahead of him. He’s also among the game’s hardest-throwing starters. Though his average fastball velocity took a slight step back in 2015, it bounced back to a robust 96.5 mph in his most recent campaign. And the results have followed, as Martinez posted a combined 3.02 ERA over the last two seasons. That combination of age, the liveliness of his arm, and results make the Octagon client an appealing candidate for an investment for a St. Louis club that has faced a few questions in its still-talented rotation of late.
Of course, the arbitration process provides an important starting point for weighing Martinez’s value. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project him to earn $5.3MM in his first season of eligibility, a rather lofty sum for a first-year-eligible starting pitcher. (Dallas Keuchel set a new record last year with a $7.25MM deal, blowing away the long-standing $4.35MM record held by Dontrelle Willis and David Price.) If Martinez continues his current trajectory, he could follow Price in landing some truly significant arb salaries, though unlike the talented lefty, he won’t be able to build off of a Super Two campaign.
For Martinez to max out his earning capacity, though, he’ll need to extend his outings. He topped 180 innings for the first time in 2016, ending up with 195 1/3 frames on the ledger. Durability will be a key consideration for the Cards. Though there haven’t been any significant health concerns to date, Martinez’s combination of youth and propensity for relying on hard pitches gave him a somewhat elevated Tommy John risk profile in the study completed earlier this year by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum (see here for an explanation; here for individual player results).
All told, there’s plenty of reason for confidence in Martinez’s outlook. Increased confidence and usage rates in his changeup — the only one of his four pitches that didn’t score as a top-level offering in 2016 — has allowed him to make strides against lefties, who battered him in 2014. Though he still surrendered a .256/.342/.387 batting line to opposing southpaws in 2016, that’s enough to make him a high-quality starter when combined with his dominating work against right-handed batters (who hit just .204/.270/.269).
Though he lost over one strikeout per nine as against his prior season’s results in 2016, and his swinging-strike rate dwindled a bit to 9.4%, Martinez posted a career-best 56.4% groundball rate. He also worked in the zone more than he had in the preceding two years, though his walk rate has remained relatively consistent. Martinez continues to be tough to take deep — he has allowed 0.6 dingers per nine for his career — and has given up hard contact on less than three of ten balls put in play against him in every one of his seasons in the majors.
So, assuming that St. Louis is prepared to do what’s reasonably necessary to make a deal, what kind of contract might we be looking at? It has been quite some time since we saw a reasonably comparable pitcher in the 3+ service class strike a long-term deal. Johnny Cueto got $27MM over four guaranteed seasons while giving up one option year, but that was way back in 2011, and his platform wasn’t as impressive. Before that, Ervin Santana earned $30MM in a similarly situated deal.
Those numbers seem well shy of what Martinez can command in a market where top-end starters have earned increasingly significant sums. Indeed, the Cards recently reached an arb-only deal with fellow righty Lance Lynn, who took a similarly compelling case into his first year of arbitration eligibility ($5.5MM projection), that priced his arb years at $22MM. For Martinez to give up any free-agent seasons, particularly by way of option, St. Louis will need to up the ante.
Expanding the search a bit, there are some other contracts worth considering. Corey Kluber landed $38.5MM over five years, with two options attached, on the cusp of his age-29 season. He was coming off of a Cy Young campaign, and would have qualified for Super Two status after the season in which he signed his deal (which came in early April of 2015). The contract valued Kluber’s bought-out free-agent years at $13MM and between $13MM and $17MM (depending upon escalators). Before that, Chris Sale took down a $32.5MM guarantee on an identical structure. Sale was just 23 years old at the time, and already pitching like an ace; his contract could well represent the tail end of an old model rather than a truly relevant mark going forward. Looking at 4+ service deals, and excepting ace-level performers (Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez), Matt Harrison owns the high bar in recent contracts at five years and $55MM (plus an option). He was 27 years of age at the time that deal was struck.
In Martinez’s case, a five-year arrangement (including the 2017 season) would put him under contract for two would-be free-agent years and take him through at least his age-29 campaign, with options perhaps extending the Cards’ control into his early thirties. Taking Lynn’s $22MM and adding another $25MM or so to cover two free agent years — with Martinez’s age roughly balancing off Kluber’s advantage in quality in pricing those seasons — would put the total guaranteed value to roughly the midpoint between Kluber’s and Harrison’s contract. Arguing for a guarantee that reaches or exceeds Kluber’s could represent a sticking point in and of itself. On the other hand, the Cards have perhaps been more willing to spend big in extensions than have the budget-minded Indians, while Kluber’s meteoric rise at a relatively advanced age made him a unique case. Plus, Martinez can reasonably argue that his age-28 and 29 seasons can be expected to earn him much greater sums than even the numbers just noted; relatively youthful free-agent starters such as Jordan Zimmermann have commanded over $20MM annually.
That’s all just a spitball range, of course, and it’s certainly plausible to imagine any number of creative scenarios, including escalators, opt-outs, and options that could play a significant role in determining the final value. Regardless, it’s somewhat uncharted territory; the sides figure to have plenty to talk about over the coming months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yes please I want an extended contract for this guy
Might wanna mention that Price had the 4.35 mm record (if that’s true I’m not actually sure) as that seems to have been left out
I meant to. And now have. He actually matched Willis. Of course, that number probably isn’t relevant anymore. Was long outdated, and Keuchel’s contract shattered that weird mold. Plus, of course, Price was a Super Two.
Good luck. I want the Astros to extend Altuve.
He’s under cheap club control until 2020. Even with Boras, Altuve probably won’t leave. But I’d consider a restructure and a pay raise.
If Brett Cecil can get 34mil. Carlos Martinez is worth 120 mil lol. The cards would probably give him around 4/65-70. No reason to give him more than 4 years.
Plenty of reason to go more than 4. Getting his arb years at a known price provides some cost certainty but discounted FA years can lead to major surplus value and having them as options limits risk.
Sale and Eaton don’t bring back those returns without the contracts they are on.
There is no reason to give him that much over 4 years when arbitration will keep him in the neighborhood of 3/$25-30mm range. A 4 year deal would be more in the $40mm range or else there is very little incentive for the Cardinals to offer it.
That’s potentially double what he would earn in arbitration -?Cards would be giving the money away
Martinez, reyes, and weaver with mike leake to eat innings at the back end of the rotation isnt a bad future at all. Even as a Pirates fan, I wish to see wainwright regain his dominant form because he is a joy to watch when he’s on. St louis should be competitive for years to come, as usual.
If you talk to certain Cards fans they act like the franchise is devoid of talent and should blow it up.
Those are not certain Cards fans. They are called cub fans.
If you talk to others, they say that Matheny is unable to use a roster with effectiveness.
Another talented punk db. Not on par with Yordano (he’s in a sub-class all by himself) or Bumgarner or Harper, but still someone who thinks he is above everyone else. Such a difference between guys like them and guys like Altuve, Trout, Bryant or Mookie.
How is Carlos a punk? Lmao he’s far from, he hasn’t had any on field problems, he does so much for the STL and DR communities. Learn facts before you speak.
On field behavior that anybody over the age of 5 is aware of. If you watched more than ESPN you’d know that.
Best of luck with the rest of your life though.
Carlos is one of the best, if not THE best, team mate on the Cardinals. Great competitor, best cheerleader on the bench, does tremendous amount of charity, class act and loves by fans and fellow players
You’re way off base here. Why is he a punk? Because he celebrates his teammates hitting HR’s? I’ve never seen or heard of him being disrespectful in any way.
maybe because he had a Twitter wall full of porn?
you are very uneducated. I’ve watched his entire career and your statement could not possibly be further from the truth.
So what the criteria for being a punk, being entertaining to watch, was Ricky Henderson a punk then orange you were old enough to watch Ty Cobb who could be classified as a punk in his day, stop telling ppl to get off your lawn and accept whay the world wants
lol he’s better then yordano
i have enjoyed all your articles since last offseason though this is my first reply^^
can you please write about some potential trades about rockies’ crowded outfield situations pls?
I would imagine it would be something like 4/28 with 2 14 mil options tacked on with 1 mil buyouts.
Not much incentive for Martinez in that scenario.
It’s insurance against injury for a player who has not banked a lot of money yet and, per the article, has an elevated risk of TJS.
No way he accepts 4/28………that’s like 2012 pricing.
Besides…….He’s going to make $24 Million in the next 3 years anyway via arbitration (if he continues to pitch well)..
This would be s total cardinal move to sign him to a big extension. While St. Louis is often mocked for not doing many big free agent signings, we do spend when you come up as a cardinal and do well. Matt carpenter, waino, yadi, Albert pujols, are all examples of guys that have been extended before free agency. Yes pujols was extended and had a big contract years before he left for the angels. The biggest reason we didn’t offer pujols more to stay is so we had the funds to extend yadi and waino. As cards fan that is what I see my team doing better than most, paying our own good contracts and keeping our players here. Yadi for instance is seeking an extension and that will all but ensure he remains a cardinal for life. Drafted by us, retired with us. Very rare these days. As good as the Cubs are, good luck keeping that young core together for long period of time. Doubt any currrnt Cubs star gets drafted and retires a Cub. We’ll see.
Why would the Cubs have problems keeping Bryant forever? They’ll give him a key to the city if he wants.
Not just Bryant… Key will be how Theo and crew do drafting at back end of drafts now. Chances for finding super stars are rare. But expect Bryant to want to get paid since he is a Boras client and the Cubs played service time game with him in 2015.
Most pressing question for Cubs is how to maintain pitching.. Position players they are set.. When pitching falters is when its tricky… See Cards 2016 season…
Why does it matter if a player retires with the team? Ideally you don’t want them to, unless they retire right at the end of their peak, otherwise you are just paying a premium for decline years. See Albtert Pujols for an example.
Because if he continues his career path he’ll get 400 million plus at free agency, no way they keep him, arrietta, Russell rizzo and the rest all together. Good luck with that. Cardinals had an aging core and have been reloading, but how many other teams keep a core together long enough to be aging? It’s great as a fan to have “your guys” instead of every other year bring ing guys in from other teams in order to compete.
cards wont reload anymore, they lost Lunhow. look at how much worse the farm has gotten.
epstein can draft well. look at what he did in boston. he can also find undervalued guys.
hes not going to extend arrieta because arrieta will be in his decline years for most of that time.
Yadi has been a valuable member of the Cardinals for his whole career, but if they do give him an extension, let’s hope it doesn’t “break the bank”……his production was solid in 2016, but there’s a cliff coming soon. I’d hate for the Cards to give him 4/70 right now…..and regret it in 2018. If he wants to be a Cardinal for his entire career…….he needs to give a serious hometown discount.
If the Cards extend Molina, they should be sure that the NL has the DH. His defense has declined steadily.
Wainofan: that needless extension of Wong was also a “Cardinal move”. That hasn’t worked out too well, has it.
wong is getting 2.5, 4, 6.5, and 10M the next 4 years. the amount is negligible and hes a 2 WAR player. that solid surplus.
paying him 23M for 6-8 WAR over the next 4 years is pretty good actually.
you dont usually want guys their whole career. you want their age 24-31 years then let someone else pay them 5x as much in FA to decline.
also, since lunhow left, STL hasnt drafted squat compared to the 2000s. chicago has a better front office, better (and younger) core, and more fans. try not to sound too butthurt.
It’s no surprise that alcediner is not a Cards Fan…..and a fan of another NL Team……..but from what I have seen before…..he is typically a “facts guy”…..so his comments here surprise me a bit.
Carlos is not a Punk. He is a bit of a head case, but his actions on the field, and from the dugout……. resemble another talented & “exuberant” SP………….Jose Fernandez (R.I.P.)……………Carlos and a friend of mine are buddies. He used to play for the Cards as well, and he tells me that Carlos is a great teammate, and does a ton for the community (as stated above).
There’s an injury risk here, however…..and that will somewhat dampen how big of a contract he gets. When he’s “On”…….he’s lights out. Considering that he has 3 years of arbitration left, the buyout of those 3 years will be around 28-30 million…………I think Mo tops out at 4/46 with a team option……..and a final total somewhere around 5/65.
He must of thought of the other douche bag Carlos…lol Carlos Gomez and Ventura can suck a fat D. But Martinez is worth an extension.
There is a ton of emotion out their on the bump, very JF like, I like the amount on for are years but I feel like with all the hype team friendly contracts get in the news FA year cost has to go up, especially with the players able to do that percentage sell of their future earnings, they can like sell 5% of FE for a couple million and the ln the buyer cuts it into shares, Franco of the Phillies did it. Anyway, it’ll be interesting since we haven’t seen a big extension for a pitcher for a while but I bet the market affects the value of FA years, Ian Kennedy got 70 million lol
Absolutely he should be extended
Extension makes total sense for Cards and Martinez. Even with buying out 2 FA years (what the cards want), Martinez still can re-enter FA as a 29 year old. Martinez gets both ‘immediate’ life changing $ (what he wants) oppty for 2nd big payday when he will still be highly marketable (what he wants)..
I have always thought that Martinez as high end 2 or 3 starter was the key to /- for the cardinals
Martinez is an ace.. He’s going to make 30 mil from arbitration anyway. Those 2 bought out years could be potentially worth 30 mil a piece if he was able to hit the market. Not to mention having to pitch almost twice as long healthy before hitting your free agent payday. If Martinez hits the market at 27 in three years he’s going to get crazy money and he knows it, why prolong it 2 years to make a few mil more
Hmmm… $30mm from arbitration? You do realize that Arrietta is only going to get ~$17mm right? And that price gets paid $30mm (but only after he gave 5 years in a row averaging 220 innings/yr)
Hope the cards give him $30mm (you will make every non-cards fans day)
I think you guys are a little off with how much he would get. I think he is expecting to get 30 mil from arbitration and then sign mega contract. I’d say if injury was the big concern of his he would be doing anything not to prolong his free agent pay day. Accept the arbitration 30 mil security and cross his fingers he makes it 3 years to that 300 million dollar deal. I don’t think he wants to make 40 mil as opposed to 30 mil if it’s going to prevent him from making that big contract longer. I’d say if they work something out it would be 4/55 or more $.
yeah, except 30m in arbitration isn’t a secure thing if a pitcher gets hurt, thus the reason he would ink an extension to actually secure that money.
I could be suggesting something that’s a bit too light. So hard to know, b/c the comps are lacking and there’s a huge element of the willingness and valuations on both sides. There’s nothing that requires a deal, so both have to be willing.
But you have to price in risk — that’s why Lynn took the 22 mil. I’d say that 30 is on the high side for his arb years, since he’ll be starting with about 5.5 and only has two more years to earn. If he’s able to secure successive $5MM raises, sure, he’s at 30, but that assumes he’s healthy, keeps building his innings, and doesn’t drop in performance.
I could see him deciding that 40 is too light to sacrifice the upside, and holding out for more. $55MM over four years seems like a bit too much risk and not enough upside on the Cards’ side …. I’d guess they’d be looking to secure two free agent years for that kind of guarantee.
Your article is fantastic (ref the type of dialogue it inspired)…. I think you are spot on in terms of a 5 year deal or there is little/no value to a deal for the cardinals.
The low/high slant of the $ boils down to how badly ‘Martinez’ wants to secure his 1st tier of life changing $. Injury’s happen (Tyson Ross, Vu Darvich, Matt Harvey, Steven Strasbourg, Wilson Ramos (catcher).. etc)
Martinez has yet to bear the burden (physics load/strain) of multiple 200 inning seasons (I am including the post season in the ‘wear and tear’ risk factors).
There are many examples (on both ends) of ‘extension’ proving to be brilliant for the club and for the player. The (injury risk) argument for pitchers is even stronger for pitchers than for position players.
If Martinez was your son, and the cardinals offered a 5 yr (3 arb 2 FA) years at 5/55 or 5/60 (throw on a couple of club option years at $28mm), knowing his mechanics and injury history make him a high TJ risk factor… are you going to tell him ‘no?’
Everyone talks about every player from the ‘everything is perfect’ scenario. If it was ‘you’, and had seen so many teammates go down because of injury, and you had the opportunity to secure $55 – $60mm (and ‘real’ option $ at even $25-$28mm), what would you do?