The new collective bargaining agreement will significantly damage Japanese superstar Shohei Otani’s earning power if the 22-year-old immigrates to the majors before he turns 25, but that might not prevent him from coming to the big leagues prior to 2019. Hideki Kuriyama, Otani’s manager with the Nippon-Ham Fighters, said Thursday that he expects the right-handed ace/left-handed hitter to head to the majors next offseason (Twitter link via Jim Allen of Kyodo News). Otani will have to take a minor league deal if he signs with a major league team before he turns 25. That means he’d need to accrue six years of service time before becoming a major league free agent and having a real chance to cash in via the open market. As of last weekend, the Fighters were planning on posting Otani a year from now.
A couple more notes from around baseball:
- The Red Sox and Brewers set the wheels in motion for Tuesday’s Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg trade at the general managers meetings in early November, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe in a highly detailed piece that’s worth a full read. Milwaukee GM David Stearns told Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski that the Brewers would want Shaw and more in return. “’I said, ‘Well, it would be something we’d be interested in talking about,'” Dombrowski recalled. Talks went dormant as the two sides awaited a new CBA, which Major League Baseball and the players’ union reached Nov. 30. Then, less than a week later at the winter meetings, the Red Sox agreed to send Shaw and two minor leaguers – shortstop Mauricio Dubon and right-hander Josh Pennington – to the Brewers for Thornburg.
- The rebuilding Phillies might have another lean year or two ahead, but GM Matt Klentak expects their ever-growing core of young talent and the franchise’s spending ability to form a lethal mix soon. “One of the advantages that we have as a big market club is that we’ve been able to take advantage of the past couple of years to trade some key assets to get younger,” Klentak told Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice. “Another huge advantage we have is that we have a very dedicated ownership that we know will spend when the time is right.” That time might be two winters away, when free agency could feature such superstars as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw and Josh Donaldson.
Why wouldn’t Otani just wait? The difference in earnings is extreme
Well now he’ll really get to pick whatever team he wants as I expect every team will offer him the same minor league deal.
This isn’t exactly the case, unfortunately..
If the suggested information above is correct, and Otani is in fact posted during the next International signing period, then the teams that blew passed their limits for 2015 and 2016 can only offer him up to $300,000..
I could be wrong, but that is how I understood the rules for the new CBA, in terms of teams that had already received penalties…Also, beginning the next Int’l signing period, teams are just simply not allowed to past their spending limits.
Also, do not forget their will be different tiers of budgets for smaller and larger market teams…So, technically, a smaller market team could sign him for their whole limit, which would ultimately be more than any large market team could offer
He will. He can make more in Japan during that time and still get the 200-300M contract
There’s no chance in hell that he’ll make anywhere near $200 million, even if the Dodgers are in a bidding war with the Yankees over the guy.
People said the same about Tanaka making 100M+
I think he could easily get $200mm if he continues to pitch & hit at a very high level. The Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, & Giants all need pitching badly. He could be the best arm available, so it will be a big bidding war.
The only reasons I can think of (probably more) as to why he wouldn’t wait would be he wants to play in the MLB as soon as possible, which would also mean as long as possible. I would say maybe he’s worried about getting injured before he turns 25, but I imagine he’d make more in Japan than he would if he came over at the end of the season, so that doesn’t seem likely.
If the dollars are equal why would he pick a bad team ….you would think the cubs, the west coast teams and the yankees would be favorites ,,,,,
So you start by saying why would he pick a bad team and then you suggest the yankees would be favorites?
because the Yankees are an iconic franchise ..known all over the world…
Seeing as the redsox will probably finish first and compete for a World Series next year and the yankees will probably finish 4th I’m assuming the Red Sox would be higher on his list if your you’re right and he is going to sign with a team based on win potential.
Lol
Yankees are also bigger internationally, so more chance of more money made from promos and stuff
plus they a fellow japanese pitcher in tanaka
Who will be a free agent and could be pitching for any team by then.
LOL is right!
Red Sox are worried about going over the cap. Yankees are not.
He’d be on a cheap contract for years, cap concerns will be irrelevant.
Otani should sign a minor league deal for one year but demand the team that signs him to non-tender him. That way the team potentially gets the chance at a superstar rental, and he gets the chance to enter free agency
Indeed, a gimmicky contract like that would be ideal but who knows if it is legal.
what team is dumb enough to pay the 20 million dollar posting fee just to enable him to gouge them for even more money?
keep in mind that Otani’s production at this point is all theoretical, so that would be a 25 million dollar 1 year rental for a complete unknown….
unfortunately Dave Stewart’s no longer a GM, so i don’t think the odds of that happening are very high….
Well considering that some guys are making over 30 million per season, a team paying 20 million for one season doesn’t seem out of the ordinary
name one player who made 20 million a year without ever having so much as played in college
i can save you a lot of time and just tell you you can’t, because it’s that out of the ordinary
An infield of Alfaro, Franco, Machado, Crawford and Kingery long term is pretty appealig
Cashman better go all in on Machado. Forget Harper, Machado or bust for Yanks.
With cozens, randolph and Williams in the outfield. No complaints here to the sound of that. Add Hoskins to the bench.
Y’all are counting chickens way before they hatch.
Seriously. It’s like they think every prospect works out. Why even pretend all those guys will make it, it’s a statistical fact that they won’t.
Thinking hes making sure he goes to the team he wants
Teams that exceeded their Int’L budgets are still penalized under the new CBA, and can only sign players for up to $300,000.
The teams that exceeded their budget during the 2015 period are still penalized during the next International signing period, and the teams that just exceeded their budgets are still penalized for the next two signing periods…
Also, now, major market teams and smaller market teams are going to be tiered, with the smaller market teams receiving a larger spending limit.
So, it isn’t as simple as Otani going to whichever team he wants, because he will be able to get larger paydays from other teams. Especially, if a small market team, that wants to give him their whole budget, trades for the maximum extra amount of bonus slots, and then offers him that deal…
Idk exactly what it would come out to, but it would definitely be substantially more than $300,000 which, during the next period, several teams will be maxed out at for a single player…
If he’s passing up 200-300m that he’d get if he waits til he’s 25, do you really think he’s gonna care about 300k v. 5-6 mil or whatever the max is?
He’ll go to a big market club. He can make way more money advertising that way.
Pennington is the one think could really come back to bite Boston. he was a Vandy commit if remember correctly, only tore his UCL senior year of HS and Boston managed to grab him nway down in the draft, wait for him to have the surgery, then come back late in 2015. I saw a cpl of his games at Ft Myers and this guy was tough.. Upper 90’s FB and threw a fit 1 game when got removed after 2ip in a rehab game there, just had a big fit in the dugout. Shows me a gamer.
Honestly the only way I can see him coming over asap is if he’s out to prove himself in the MLB big time. Maybe this guy cares so much about being great at the sport he puts in the work to be as good as he is already. Passion I think its called.
Perhaps money in excess isn’t his desire? I feel like non-americans tend to strive for accomplishment over gross pay.
And to be the best in baseball, you gotta play in the best league
If he stays in Japan I’d totally understand though, that’s what I would do.
That statement about non-Americans is extremely false Im just fantasizing.
I dunno, I think you’re right. Pretty much every comment about it is about how he could make more money.
It nice that the phillies will be a team with a star player right now it’s Franco who will last but he has to much stuff of him right now everyone should be happy soon he is not going to be the dependable guy
As a Phillies fan of 40 years, I”ll do what I’ve done with the disgrace called the 76ers… I’ll dedicate my time paying attention to you, and spending my hard earned cash,, when you dedicate your time into winning ! 2 more years of this dribble ? PLEASE ! You have the cash to improve NOW.
I’d love for all sports to put a clause in agreements that prevent the same teams from drafting in the top of drafts for consecutive years. You draft in the top 5 one year, you cannot draft in the top 10for 3 years consecutive or more.
Who do you expect us to just go out and buy???
Oh, and there’s a name for “fans” like you: FAIR WEATHER. Keep your hard earned money. Go root for someone else if you can’t understand the need to develop from within. Dope.
He’ll come over because if he has another huge year in Japan, he’ll have a boat load of endorsement deals the second he signs. Salaries in Japan aren’t crazy like over here. He’ll make 2.7 mil next season as the hands down best player in the league. So his overall earning total is much greater over here when the endorsement side is factored in.
Also, as he’s not going to be signing a ridiculous contract, he’ll be able to negotiate how he’s used (which he cares an awful lot about). He wants to play both ways, so either corner outfield in the NL or DH in the AL. This guy likes the spotlight and wants to be a star in MLB. Gonna be fun…
I’m sure he has endorsement deals in Japan now, if he’s this good. I doubt many companies will be hurried to sign a player most fans have never heard of, to an American endorsement deal. Does anyone know if he even speaks English?
Agreed, his endorsement earnings power would be way higher in Japan where he’s already a star (and a native son). I doubt American companies are going to be rushing out to sign some relatively unknown foreigner to endorsement deals. I imagine even MLB-established Japanese stars like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui were still making more money in Japan on the endorsement side than they were over here.
He’s that good and yes the deals he has in Japan won’t be going anywhere (if anything he’s likely to have more there once he moves here), but he’ll pick up a lot over here once he makes the move. Nike, for instance, would love to have a big, recognizable Asian star to market themselves on the most populated continent. He has incredible earning power even without the giant MLB contract he deserves.
He’d be insane to come over in 12 months when waiting 36 months will bring him tens of millions more.
Could a team sign him for the minor-league deal under the new CBA, with a tacit understanding of an “extension” to follow? What in the new CBA would prevent that tactic?
*him being Otani
I think he could, but not sure it would make sense for either the team that signs him or the player. He can sign for as much as a 10 mil bonus and start on a minor league/league minimum contract, which will increase steadily with arbitration. However, he’d be set to hit free agency right after turning 29 (or likely right in his prime), so it would have to be a pretty good extension to push his free agency back, which would mean the signing team (who will get him for 6 years anyway) would need to pony up a huge amount of unnecessary cash.
Is Otani the guy who can hit really well for a pitcher? If so then no way he signs with an AL team. He’ll just get an NL team to match the deal (if he can).
I don’t understand this statement. There are so many ways to plug his bat into the lineup that it really doesn’t matter if he is in the AL or NL. Am I missing something here?
Shaw the next Will Middlebrooks disaster
Something that could tip the scales of Otani playing in MLB next season is for his agent to lineup sponsorship deals that are financially tied to whichever team he were to play. This is almost a work around financially to make it feasible for Otani to play in MLB sooner rather than later. If Otani played for a the Yankees or Dodgers, he is going to get sponsors that would offer him a lot more money than say if he were to play for Milwaukee or San Diego. I understand players make these side deals regardless, but it could potentially provoke a bidding war between sponsors rather than MLB teams, as well get into the good graces of whichever MLB would land Otani.
Otani would be crazy to come over on a minor league FA. He’d get a lot less money, but also be under team control for at least 6 years. The team could also start him in the minors for the 1st 2 weeks of the year to “transition ” him to the US & gain another year of control. I think that is more important than money bc he could incorporate a no-trade clause, or opt outs into his contract if he waited 2 years.
Ohtani is gonna get paid. I could easily see 200m. I mean I’d take him for 200 rather than Bryce for 400. Dude will hit like matsui and pitch like syndergaard. Sign him and then machado in a few years.
I don’t see them throwing money at a 33 yr old Donaldson or a 31 yr old Kershaw.
If, big IF, Machado and Harper reach FA they’d be 26 so YES barring injuries/falloff. Getting Both would be an amazing haul.
You move Franco over to 1B and play Machado at 3rd. Hopefully by them Crawford is established.
I would much rather they draft their pitching or trade for it than overpaying for it in FA. You can buy bats.