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NL East Notes: Marksberry, Desmond, Mets

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Braves left-hander Matt Marksberry, who as of Tuesday was battling potentially serious health issues, awoke from a medically induced coma yesterday, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Marksberry had been suffering from intense stomach pains and wound up suffering a seizure that led to a collapsed lung while at the hospital for treatment, according to O’Brien. Marksberry’s sister tweeted that her brother “still has a long journey ahead of him” as he recovers from the frightening incident. Needless to say, we’re happy to learn that the 26-year-old appears to be on the road to recovery and continue to hold Marksberry in our thoughts as we wish him a speedy recovery.

A few more items from the NL East…

  • Neither the Nationals nor Ian Desmond are entirely ruling out a reunion this winter, reports Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, though she characterizes the possibility as unlikely. Janes spoke to a team source who said, “I don’t see it, but anything is possible.” That’s far from a ringing endorsement for Desmond, but her colleague Thomas Boswell did lay out a scenario in which it could make sense: play Desmond in center field, move Trea Turner back to shortstop and deploy Danny Espinosa as a versatile utility infielder. Janes speculates that Desmond could realistically look to pursue something along the lines of Ben Zobrist’s four-year, $56MM pact, but that may be more than the Nationals care to invest, as she adds that the team “won’t stretch their means for his services.” Also, Janes writes that the Nats are looking to become a more contact-oriented team, and strikeouts remain an issue for Desmond despite his rebound campaign in Texas.
  • John Harper of the New York Daily News opines that while retaining Yoenis Cespedes should clearly be the Mets’ top priority this offseason, a pursuit of Kenley Jansen should be a close second. Harper argues that the $17.2MM value of the qualifying offer the team may be comfortable extending to Neil Walker would be better allocated to Jansen, who can team with Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed to give skipper Terry Collins one of the league’s most imposing bullpen trios, thereby taking some pressure off of a rotation that was plagued by injuries in 2016. There’s certainly merit to the notion, and the Mets have been willing to part with a first-round pick in the past for lesser-regarded players. However, while Harper throws out a speculative number of four years and $54MM, I’ll respectfully take the over on both of those figures, as both Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are in firm position not simply to surpass Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM record for a relief pitcher but to absolutely shatter it by a substantial amount.

Borderline Club Options On Starting Pitchers

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By now, everyone who follows free agency in baseball should be keenly aware that the offseason market for free-agent starting pitching is arguably the worst in history. This winter’s top names will include a 36-year-old that was pitching in independent ball last season (Rich Hill), a former Rookie of the Year that was moved last winter in what amounted to a salary dump (Jeremy Hellickson) and a 30-year-old that opened the season in a long-relief role before a stunning transformation following a trade to the Pirates (Ivan Nova). That’s a far cry from the 2015-16 offseason, when David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake each reeled in contracts of at least five years in length and at least $80MM in total value.

The paucity of not only top-tier starting pitchers but simply reliable arms that can be plugged into the middle or back of a rotation on this year’s open market has an impact not only on teams looking for starting pitching, but teams with decisions to make regarding club options on starters that, frankly, didn’t do a lot to justify the salaries that are included in those options in 2016.

The Rangers, for instance, hold an $11MM option with a $1MM buyout over left-hander Derek Holland. For a pitcher whose ERA has come in just shy of 5.00 over the past two seasons and has averaged just 68 innings per year dating back to 2014, an $11MM salary seems steep, to say the least. Holland, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out in examining his option case, has had two shoulder injuries and a major knee injury in the past three years and has scarcely been able to take the mound at all. The Derek Holland that pitched 213 innings with a 3.42 ERA for the 2013 Rangers probably feels like a distant memory for Rangers fans.

However, it’s also worth considering that even a bounceback candidate like Doug Fister received a one-year, $7MM deal last winter, while Mike Pelfrey pulled in two years and $16MM coming off a dreadful three-year run with the Twins. The Rangers owe Holland $1MM one way or the other, by virtue of the buyout on his option, so they effectively have to determine whether he’s worth investing an additional $10MM. Given the dearth of quality options this offseason, it’s not unthinkable that even rebound candidates will command numbers not that far off from that level. Edinson Volquez and Andrew Cashner, for instance, will probably both receive fairly notable contracts despite coming off of poor seasons. And while each has a better recent track record of health, neither delivered demonstrably better bottom-line results than Holland (who is also three years younger than Volquez). The Royals are effectively deciding that Volquez isn’t worth offering another $7MM by reportedly planning to buy out his $10MM mutual option for $3MM, but that certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t find a taker at or above that $7MM rate on an open market that is devoid of talented arms. In fact, I’d wager that he will top that $7MM mark and come out ahead of the $10MM he’d have earned via that mutual option.

The same logic can be applied to the options held by the Cardinals over Jaime Garcia ($12MM with a $500K buyout) and Clay Buchholz with the Red Sox ($13.5MM with a $500K buyout). An $11.5MM net investment in Garcia, who logged a 4.67 ERA in 171 2/3 innings this year and has his own history of durability issues, might seem steep to some, but a 30-year-old left-hander with a decent track record that finished the year healthy would probably command a multi-year deal in the upcoming market. If anything, his agents may be hoping that the Cardinals elect to decline the option option, but the context of the free-agent market suggests that there’s some value in that one-year commitment, even if the team explores the option of trading him after exercising the option.

Buchholz’s option may look even more daunting, as investing $13MM more into a pitcher that lost his rotation spot and finished the year with a 4.78 ERA and lackluster peripherals absolutely feels like an overpay. But Buchholz pitched more effectively in 28 2/3 innings after returning to the rotation in September, and he’s only a season removed from a 3.26 ERA that came with outstanding peripherals. While he’s been one of the more mercurial arms in the league over the past half-decade, the type of upside he brings on a one-year commitment is greater than that of most other options on the free-agent market. As is the case with Garcia, a multi-year pact could be attainable if he were to reach the open market (remember, again, that Pelfrey found two years last winter coming off not just a poor season but a poor three years and has never matched the success of Buchholz’s best years).

None of the three players in question here enjoyed a particularly good season, but each at least finished the year healthy enough to take the ball and has enjoyed quality results in the past. Even if their current teams feel that there’s no fit on the 2017 roster for a pitcher with these levels of question marks, it still makes sense to exercise the options and explore the trade market. Even if the Rangers, for instance, include $4MM to trade Holland elsewhere in exchange for a minor leaguer or two, they’re effectively purchasing those prospects for $3MM. It’s far from a lock that these options will be exercised, of course, and it’s worth also mentioning the likes of Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel, who seem like easier calls but wilted in the final month of the season in this discussion as well. From where I stand, so long as a pitcher finished the season in a reasonable state of health, committing to a one-year deal at a not-backbreaking rate given the market alternatives and the number of rival clubs that figure to be on the hunt for rotation help is the right call.

Shane Victorino On Future In Baseball

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Longtime Phillies outfielder Shane Victorino sat down for a lengthy Q&A with Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com and covered a great number of topics, including career highlights, his favorite teammates and places to play, his memories from the Phillies’ World Series run and also his future in the game of baseball. The whole Q&A is worth a read for Phillies fans and Victorino fans alike, but it’s worth noting that Victorino wouldn’t officially close the door on a return to baseball if there’s interest. He tells Lawrence:

“Yeah, I mean I still have a love for the game. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that will ever leave you. But you know there are things you think about and decisions you have to make. Family comes into the equation. Being there for my kids, finally being away for the game this past season I saw the significance of being a dad and what that means. Understanding being a kid myself. But circumstances were different. My parents weren’t always around because they had to work to make ends meet. Where if I’m not around I’m just playing a game. So that’s the balance I’m trying to figure out. But, yes, there are things that I’ll weigh. The game of baseball, and my love for the game. It’s still there. I’d love the chance to come back and play, but that answer is not etched in stone.”

The 2016 season marked the first year since 2004 in which Victorino did not appear in the Major Leagues. The affable switch-hitter did open the season with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate after signing a minor league deal, though he appeared in just nine games, as reports early in the season indicated that the Cubs told Victorino they’d make a quick decision on him and whether he was a fit for the big league roster. The Cubs released Victorino in May, and in June it was reported by FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the 35-year-old Victorino had rejected some minor league offers.

Victorino saw quite a bit of big league time in both 2014 and 2015, though his last truly productive season in the Majors came back in 2013 when he hit .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers and 21 steals as a member of the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox — the second World Series ring he captured in his career (the other coming with the aforementioned ’08 Phillies). That blend of power and speed was typical for the “Flyin’ Hawaiian,” who from 2007-13 batted a combined .279/.344/.438 and averaged 16 homers and 35 steals per 162 games played.

It seems unlikely that Victorino would receive anything other than a minor league offer after sitting out the vast majority of the 2016 season, though perhaps he’s more amenable to attempting to break camp with a big league team than he was trying to crack a roster midway through the Major League campaign. That’s a decision for Victorino to make with his family though, and perhaps one that he may not prefer to make until surveying the offseason market and gauging the level of interest in his services.

Quick Hits: International Draft, Dodgers, Reyes, Niese

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Ben Badler of Baseball America, a highly respected observer in the international amateur arena, has written an article panning the league’s reported effort to push for an international draft in collective bargaining talks. Though Badler concurs with the need for reform, and suggests that a properly conceived draft may ultimately be a legitimate pursuit, he argues that the first step ought to be a change in how the commissioner’s office approaches the international market.

Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:

  • While things didn’t go the Dodgers’ way tonight, the team is still battling in the postseason and just wrapped up its fourth-straight NL West title. And as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, if club president Stan Kasten has his way, the club will keep taking shots at the postseason year after year — without losing the discipline it needs to be a repeat contender. “It is largely correct that the playoffs are a crapshoot,” Kasten said. “So if you think you can lock something up in just one year by going all in, that is folly. I know our chances of winning a championship are better if we win eight out of 10 division titles.”
  • The Mets are still weighing some of their harder decisions, but Jon Heyman of Fan Rag says the club has already made two rather obvious ones. New York will exercise its league-minimum option over infielder Jose Reyes. The team was able to secure that rather unusually favorable clause because the Rockies still owe Reyes a large sum for 2017 and he was in need of an opportunity after being suspended and designated for assignment owing to his shameful domestic violence episode. Meanwhile, the Mets will pay lefty Jon Niese a $500K buyout rather than picking up his option at $10MM. Niese was even worse in New York than he was with the Pirates, who sent him back to the Mets over the summer after adding him in last winter’s Neil Walker swap, but ought to draw interest as a bounceback candidate.

AL Notes: Brosius, Saunders, Brach, Rangers

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Former big leaguer Scott Brosius is joining the Mariners as an assistant coach, per a team announcement. Now fifty years old, Brosius spent eleven years in the majors with the Athletics and Yankees. It’s not clear precisely what his duties will be — his title is simply “assistant coach” — but Brosius served last year as the hitting coach at Triple-A Tacoma.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • It remains unclear whether the Blue Jays will make a qualifying offer to outfielder Michael Saunders, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. But one internal source acknowledges that this second half was “horrible,” leaving Heyman to suggest that the odds are against the club putting up $17.2MM in hopes that Saunders will seek a multi-year deal elsewhere.
  • Orioles righty Brad Brach recently underwent knee surgery, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. It seems there’s little reason for concern, though, as the brief procedure simply repaired a minor tear to his meniscus. Brach said he pitched through the injury late in the season, and it certainly didn’t tarnish an outstanding campaign. Over 79 frames, Brach recorded a 2.05 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against just 2.8 BB/9, finally putting it all together in time for his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR projects his upcoming salary at $2.9MM.
  • The Rangers face a long-term strategic question with their starting pitching even as more near-term decisions loom, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Texas has had only middling success in producing its own arms of late, though a fair number of the organization’s more promising young hurlers have been shipped to other organizations in various trade packages. Grant runs through some of the missed opportunities of late, and suggests that the club undertake an offseason effort aimed at reevaluating how it acquires, develops, and values starting pitching.

Boras On Health Of Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper

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Righty Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper — arguably the Nationals’ two most important players — are both on track to participate in a full and normal Spring Training in 2017, agent Scott Boras tells Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter links). That appears to be positive news for the Nats, who went without the former for the postseason and endured persistent whispers that the latter was dealing with shoulder problems.

In the case of Strasburg, Boras says that he’s expected to be capable of maintaining a typical offseason throwing program in advance of camp in February. The key rotation piece, who inked a $175MM extension early in the 2016 season, was diagnosed with a flexor mass strain in his right forearm. He had at least been throwing to keep open the possibility of a postseason appearance, had the Nats advanced, though that never seemed particularly likely. Needless to say, Washington’s outlook for 2017 and beyond depends quite a bit on whether it receives a healthy and effective Strasburg.

As for Harper, the superstar will begin his usual offseason strength and conditioning program, according to Boras. That’s essentially non-news, but it seemingly confirms that there’s no significant shoulder health issue that was left unaddressed during the preceding season — as a pair of reports from SI’s Tom Verducci had suggested. Or, at least, it suggests that any such issue can be resolved without resorting to any treatment or procedure that would disrupt Harper’s normal workout routine.

Still, some mystery seemingly endures. The Nats maintained all along that they were not aware of any such injury, and even reportedly posed the question directly to Harper — who said he was healthy. Boras declined comment on the subject despite having weighed in on several other notable clients’ own health matters in recent years, raising some eyebrows. Now, Morosi says on Twitter that Boras has previously confirmed an injury, citing a recent story from Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. His comments there were seemingly ambiguous: Boras noted that Harper “played with limitations at times” but also seemingly hinted that those were not necessarily related to a specific, ongoing physical ailment (let alone one that wasn’t being publicly acknowledged or addressed).

Whatever is truly going on, it appears that Harper’s health won’t be a limitation as he looks to bounce back from a disappointing 2016 season. The 24-year-old was still solid overall for the Nats, with a .243/.373/.441 batting line and 24 home runs, but he fell off badly after a torrid start and didn’t come close to his productivity in the prior year. In 2015, Harper won the NL MVP award after swatting 42 long balls and slashing a ridiculous .330/.460/.649. Whether he can return to being that kind of force could go a long way toward deciding the Nationals’ fortunes in 2017 — and shaping the course of his own future.

Latest On D-Backs’ Front Office Changes, Managerial Opening

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When the Diamondbacks re-shuffled their front office, changing Tony La Russa’s title from “chief baseball officer” to “chief baseball analyst and adviser,” they also worked out a new contract, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. That makes sense, given that La Russa’s original pact reportedly expired at the end of the season. The new arrangement’s key details — compensation and term, in particular — haven’t yet been reported. It’s clear, though, that La Russa will no longer control baseball operations decisionmaking and is destined for a role that is more advisory in nature.

Here’s more from Arizona and the rest of the western divisions:

  • New Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen provided a bit more insight into his strategic thinking with the offseason set to begin in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (via Twitter). Rival executives have yet to reach out to open a dialogue, says Hazen, who emphasized both that he’s undertaking a close look at the team’s internal situation and readying to hit the ground running. “Getting a firm understand of what is here is important to me,” he said. “But we’re not going to hesitate.”
  • The incoming GM also addressed the team’s upcoming managerial search in his chat with MLB Network Radio (Twitter links). “We are looking for an impact leader” in the dugout, he said. “The game is evolving, somebody that is looking forward to embracing that evolution.” At present, Arizona is “working through a candidate list,” but won’t rush into a hiring. “This is a critical decision and we’re going to take our time and get it right,” said Hazen.
  • Intial speculation for the open skipper gig has focused on Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, an oft-cited managerial candidate who has obvious ties with Hazen, who was hired out of Boston. But the new Arizona general manager declined to comment on his potential candidacy directly, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Hazen also offered some interesting observations on the Red Sox’ ability to maintain continuity even in the midst of change, which could certainly inform the way that he approaches his tenure with the D-Backs.
  • Hazen was a wise hire, ESPN.com’s Keith Law argues in an Insider piece. The veteran executive has extensive experience in both traditional and more contemporary approaches to the game, and earns high marks around the game for his management style.
  • Still, Law notes, the move is yet another reminder that MLB’s initiatives to improve the representation of minorities in the upper reaches of front offices have yet to gain significant traction. He argues that the league needs to find a way to get more talented minority persons into the types of lower-level positions that ultimately serve as feeders to upper-level decisionmaking roles. One way to do that, Law suggests, is to prohibit unpaid internships — which tend to be occupied by those who can afford not to do paid work for a stretch (i.e., as he puts it, “generally the same kids from privileged backgrounds and expensive private schools who seem to be receiving an undue share of the upper-level jobs in baseball”).

Central Notes: Cain, Bell, Cardinals, Schafer

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Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain says that the Grade 2 wrist strain that ended his season won’t require surgery this winter, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Cain explained that he’s already had a month of recovery under his belt and expects to have a typical offseason, as he usually doesn’t begin his primary hitting program until January anyhow. Cain moved from center field to right field late in the season after returning from a hamstring injury, but Dodd writes that the Royals’ preference is to continue to deploy him in center field, where he’s graded out as one of the game’s premier defensive players over the past few seasons. However, Dodd also notes that the Royals will consider giving Cain more time in right field next season if they believe that will help to keep him healthier.

More from the the game’s Central divisions…

  • While much has been made of Josh Bell’s bat, defense will be the primary focus for the promising young Pirates slugger this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. GM Neal Huntington spoke to Bell at season’s end about his desire for Bell to become proficient both at his natural position of right field and his more recently adopted position of first base. “That’s going to be my main focus, making sure I’m more versatile next year,” Bell told Berry. “You have a few guys in every lineup that can play all over the field. Those guys are your most valuable players. I hope to be one of those guys next year.” While Bell obviously won’t be lining up in the middle of the diamond anytime soon, there’s an obvious benefit to freely being able to move him between the corner outfield and first base without fretting much over defensive issues. As Berry points out, a crowded outfield and the presence of first baseman John Jaso on the roster as well could lead to an offseason trade but could also make for some nice depth in the 2017 season if everyone is retained.
  • A lack of bullpen depth proved to be a glaring deficiency for the Cardinals this season and must be addressed by general manager John Mozeliak over the winter, opines Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Gordon points out that with Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Alex Reyes, a returning Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia (whose option seems likely to be picked up) all in the rotation picture, the rotation looks to have good depth (though further depth could be added on minor league pacts or small deals this winter), but the ’pen took hits with the loss of Zach Duke and Seth Maness to Tommy John surgery. Potential replacements for Duke like Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales battled injuries this season, and Trevor Rosenthal’s inconsistencies and injury problems render him a question mark as well. Gordon calls for multiple arms capable of pitching high-leverage innings and makes his case that said relievers should be a focal point in the Cardinals’ mission to improve their run-prevention skills this winter.
  • Outfielder Logan Schafer, who was outrighted off the Twins’ 40-man roster earlier this week, confirmed that he’ll elect free agency to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. That was all but a foregone conclusion for a veteran of nine professional seasons that lost his roster spot. Schafer tells Berardino that the Twins “treated me well and with great respect” and says he’s open to a return, though he recognizes that they’re in for a busy offseason and he’s probably not on their list of priorities. The 30-year-old center fielder hit .238/.342/.317 in 75 PAs with the Twins after slashing .264/.340/.361 in 64 games for their Triple-A affiliate. Schafer should find the opportunity to compete for a bench spot with a big league club somewhere this winter. You can check out MLBTR’s full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents for a refresher on who’s available this offseason.

How Much Will Jose Abreu Earn In 2017?

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Three years ago, the White Sox signed Cuban slugger Jose Abreu to a franchise-record six-year, $68MM contract.  Abreu kicked off his MLB career with a monster 2014 campaign, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing fourth in the MVP voting.  His offensive production has declined steadily since then, but still remains above average.  Now, Abreu is presented with an important decision that will impact his future earnings.  Within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, Abreu and his agents must decide whether he will opt out of his existing contract and into MLB’s arbitration system — a right that is afforded to him via a clause in that six-year pact. (Note: Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig finds himself in a similar situation, albeit coming off a weaker year. His situation will be addressed separately from Abreu here at MLBTR.)

If Abreu keeps his current contract, he will earn $34MM from 2017-19.  That includes salaries of $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018, and $12MM in 2019.  Abreu’s agents must determine whether their client can do better in arbitration, without the luxury of a precedent for a situation like this.

Abreu’s baseline 2016 salary, for the purposes of arbitration, appears to be $11.66MM.  That figure is calculated by taking his $10MM signing bonus, dividing it by his six-year term, and adding it to his $10MM salary from 2016.  That’s a critical difference, as arbitration paydays are based largely off of the previous year’s salary.  However, there is some gray area in this all-important baseline figure, and the Collective Bargaining Agreement does not provide clarity.  First, does it make sense to divide the signing bonus by six years, even when Abreu is opting out of the last three?  An agent could argue for dividing the bonus by three years, setting Abreu’s 2016 salary at $13.33MM.  Second, even if the six-year term is used, the Players Union tends to calculate net present value on the signing bonus, which could put Abreu’s 2016 salary around $11.88MM.

The White Sox will surely argue against interpretations that assign Abreu a higher number for his 2016 salary.  I think they would agree that for the purposes of establishing an arbitration baseline, he earned $11.66MM this year, unless there is something in the contract that calls for the exclusion of the signing bonus in determining his 2016 salary.

Is there any argument to be made that based purely on statistical merit, and not prior salary, Abreu should earn more than $11.66MM in 2017 through arbitration?  Nope.  Abreu seems to be in the range of Giancarlo Stanton’s first three years, which earned him $6.5MM for his first arbitration year in 2014.  Even with inflation, Abreu wouldn’t get past $11.66MM.

Since Abreu “deserves” a salary well below $11.66MM through arbitration, can the White Sox argue for cutting his salary?  Using the maximum allowable cut of 20 percent, the team could theoretically argue for a $9.33MM salary for Abreu for 2017.  However, salary cuts are extremely rare in the arbitration process, so much so that MLBTR’s automated model doesn’t even consider them.  Ian Stewart’s pay cut in 2012, after an awful season, is not relevant here.  So I think the worst case scenario for Abreu if he opts into arbitration is getting a repeat of that $11.66MM salary for 2017.  That would be a win for him, since his contract would otherwise pay him $10.5MM in 2017.

Can Abreu actually score a raise for 2017, beyond the $11.66MM baseline, though?  It’s possible, especially once appearances come into play.  It would look bad for the White Sox to try to cut Abreu’s salary for 2017, but it also might not look great to the public if they suggest he does not deserve a raise.  Do you think Rick Hahn would try to explain all of the above to White Sox fans, in justifying an argument against giving Abreu a raise?  Abreu’s agent, on the other hand, can feign mock outrage to the media that the White Sox don’t think a cornerstone player such as Abreu, with a .299 average, 91 home runs, and 308 RBI in three seasons, deserves a raise.  The White Sox could consider giving Abreu $12MM or more to save face.

Abreu gains upside by opting into arbitration.  He’s still in his prime, and he plays in a hitters’ ballpark.  Abreu could put up strong baseball card numbers in the coming seasons, maybe even reversing his declining power trend.  Even just normal Abreu performance, combined with token arbitration raises each year, could earn him $40-45MM from 2017-19, instead of the $34MM his contract would have paid.

Abreu’s downside, on the other hand, is limited.  I don’t think a salary cut at any point is likely, so he could simply get repeat salaries three times and still come out with $35MM for 2017-19.  The one risk factor would be in the White Sox non-tendering him after the 2017 or ’18 season, in which case he’d become a free agent.  The White Sox would only do so if his performance truly cratered, and even then, Abreu would make back most or all of the lost earnings in free agency.

Ultimately, I do expect Abreu to opt into MLB’s arbitration system, and I believe he’ll get a salary of about $12MM for 2017.

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