Brewers Designate Sam Freeman
The Brewers have designated lefty Sam Freeman, per a club announcement. His roster spot was needed for righty Junior Guerra, who’ll come up for at least one start.
Freeman, 28, gave Milwaukee some innings but not much else. Over 7 2/3 frames, he allowed 11 earned runs on 13 hits. Worse, Freeman walked more batters (nine) than he retired via strikeout (eight).
Of course, he’s done more in the past. Over the last four seasons, in fact, Freeman provided 108 2/3 frames of 3.23 ERA ball. He ought to have a shot at re-establishing himself elsewhere, though that’ll likely require a trip to Triple-A. The southpaw still sits at 94 mph with his fastball and his sky-high walk rate may just be a sample blip, as his zone percentage is right at his career mean.
Pending Free Agents That Dug An Early Hole In April
Last night, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at a number of free agents that bolstered their stock with a huge April performance (with the help of some Fangraphs leaderboards that he made for free-agent position players and pitchers). While Mark elected to look at some second- and third-tier free agents that are currently ascending the free agent power rankings, it’s also worth taking a look at the inverse; that is, players that may have had fairly strong free agent cases but have put themselves behind the eight ball. There are, of course, a number of pending free agents that struggled in the season’s first month, but rather than focusing on players that were candidates for shorter, smaller-scale deals in the first place, it seems worthwhile to identify some potentially significant earners that have gotten off on the wrong foot. It should be noted, of course, that a poor month or two isn’t a nail in the coffin to a player’s free agent hopes. Ian Kennedy, for instance, had a 7.15 ERA on June 1 last season and still pulled in $70MM and an opt-out clause this winter. However, there were others that struggled — most notably, perhaps, being Ian Desmond — and never fully recovered.
For the purposes of this post, I’m highlighting players that entered the season with legitimate cases for earning a deal of three years or more on the open market this coming offseason but have a long ways to go to now make that a reality…
Matt Wieters: I was among the crowd that was surprised to see Wieters accept Baltimore’s qualifying offer last November. Despite the fact that he was eased back into catching and hadn’t shown that he could consistently catch on consecutive days, Wieters slashed .267/.319/.422 — a batting line that was precisely league average in the eyes of both OPS+ and wRC+. A catcher that can put up league-average numbers at the plate is a hugely valuable commodity, and Wieters was still reasonably young and had a notable pedigree. Now, however, he’s batting .214/.290/.304 through his first 16 contests, and he’s caught on back-to-back days just once. Nineteen strikeouts in 62 plate appearances doesn’t help his cause whatsoever.
Carlos Gomez: Some will scoff at this notion, but if Gomez had come out the gates blazing and finished with numbers that closely resembled his 2013-14 production, he’d have had a case for a $200MM contract. Jacoby Ellsbury‘s seven-year, $153MM contract would have been looked at as a floor for agent Scott Boras, if it was even on his radar at all. Players that can deliver elite center field defense, 20+ homer power and all-around batting lines that are 25 to 30 percent above the league average are of the utmost rarity, and Gomez would’ve been entering his age-31 season. That’s a year older than Ellsbury was when he signed, but Gomez has had more offensive success, and Shin-Soo Choo can speak to the fact that it’s possible to take home seven years entering an age-31 season. Gomez, though, is hitting just .213/.241/.275 with 24 strikeouts and two walks in 83 PAs. The enormous ceiling still has him rated fifth on Tim Dierkes’ free-agent power rankings, but another month like April and Gomez will continue his slide down the list.
Edwin Encarnacion: At .240/.287/.380, Encarnacion’s bat hasn’t been completely nonexistent, but it certainly hasn’t lived up to his standards. I’d be less concerned about his production than any hitter on this list, as he’s curbed a brief strikeout binge to some extent while being plagued by a BABIP south of .180 over his past 12 games and also struggled through a poor April last season before coming to life in May. Encarnacion missed most of Spring Training as well, which could further explain the early rust. Nonetheless, he can’t undo the poor month of production he endured, and he’ll need to offset that lack of pop and those Ks with some heightened productions in the season’s warmer months. He’s currently seventh on Tim’s power rankings.
Erick Aybar: Aybar’s earning power was never going to match that of Wieters or Gomez, but with a strong season and a paper-thin crop of shortstops on the horizon, he had an easy case for a multi-year deal if he could get back to his 2014 form. However, Aybar is hitting just .163/.180/.198, and his glove at shortstop has been so poor that the Braves are already giving him some time at second base. Aybar has cost the Braves three runs at shortstop according to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, and his results at the plate are among the worst in baseball. That’s a terrible way to start any contract year, but it’s especially troubling for a player that will turn 33 next January.
Austin Jackson: We’re coming up on three years now since Jackson enjoyed an above-average offensive season, and with half of his games coming at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field this season, it’ll be difficult to make the claim that his home park played any role in his woes. Defensive metrics are down on his glove in center field as well. If his numbers since 2014 are indicative of Jackson’s true skills now, he’s a player that can handle center but perhaps not excel there with a bat that’s 10 to 15 percent below the league average. A .229/.273/.337 start through his first 90 plate appearances doesn’t do much to help his cause.
Doug Fister: Fister looked to be poised for a significant multi-year deal at the time of his trade to the Nationals, and while his first season carried some red flags, a one-year deal worth $7MM was still an implausible outcome heading into the 2015 season. Fister, though, lost his hold on a rotation spot thanks in large part to the fact that he struggled to scrape 87 mph for much of last season. The diminished velocity led to the second-worst strikeout rate of his career, and his control took a step backward as well. This season, Fister’s velocity is again in the mid-80s, and the collective result of his work is a 4.60 ERA with a 16-to-12 K/BB ratio in 29 1/3 innings. There’s some hope for the 32-year-old, though, as his sinker’s velocity has indeed steadily crept upward, topping out at an average of 88.2 mph in his most recent start (6.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K). Fister was a fine pitcher when he last averaged 88-89 mph, and if he can maintain the most recent gains or even see a bit more of an increase, the rest of the season could look much brighter than his ominous April.
Drew Storen: A trade to the homer-friendly Rogers Centre is never particularly good for a pitcher, but Storen’s struggles to begin the 2016 campaign go beyond his early proneness to the long ball. Storen has surrendered three homers with the Jays after yielding just four in 2015 and two in 2014, and his home park isn’t the only issue. Storen’s fastball velocity is hovering around 92 mph this season — a noted step down from his previous levels of 93-94.5 mph. A look at his velocity charts shows that this isn’t simply a case where he’s yet to build up to a midseason peak, either; he’s never started out a season with velocity this low, and his swinging-strike rate is at its lowest point since a difficult 2013 season. All of these data points are small samples, and that’s doubly true with a reliever, so it should be stressed that we’re looking at eight innings worth of work here. However, the decreases in velocity and swings/misses are notable even if Storen’s 30 percent homer-to-flyball ratio is all but certain to regress.
Andrew Cashner: While there’s more to like about Cashner’s start than the starts of Fister and Storen — he’s averaging eight strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.91 FIP — Cashner’s 4.94 ERA leaves plenty to be desired. The results have never really lined up with the raw stuff and pedigree that Cashner brings to the table, sometimes due to underperformance and other times due to injury. Teams are more willing to look past ERA than ever before, but Cashner’s walk rate is up after a notable increase in 2015, and his early ground-ball rate hasn’t measured up to his previously strong marks.
There’s plenty of early-season noise every season, and many of these slow starts will prove to be just that. However, it’s also worth monitoring each of the listed players over the next month or two, as it becomes increasingly difficult to climb out of these holes as the season wears on. Desmond, Alexei Ramirez and two of the players on this very list (Wieters and Fister) all provide testament to that.
Thanks to MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk for creating the free agent leaderboards and of course to Fangraphs for providing the indispensable means to do so.
Josh Ravin Receives 80-Game PED Suspension
Dodgers righty Josh Ravin has received an 80-game PED suspension, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). That is the penalty for a first-time offender under MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Agreement.
Ravin, 28, was on the 60-day DL after breaking his non-pitching arm in a car accident during the offseason, so he wasn’t expected back for some time. Now, he’ll be unavailable until late July, at the earliest.
Last year was Ravin’s first at the major league level. He allowed seven earned runs on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings of relief, but did impress with a 12:4 K:BB ratio and showed an upper-90s fastball. Ravin spent most of 2015 at Triple-A, where he worked to a 3.86 ERA in 28 frames with 12.2 K/9 against 5.1 BB/9.
Padres Designate Michael Kirkman
The Padres have designated lefty Michael Kirkman for assignment, per a club announcement. His spot on the active roster will go to outfielder Alex Dickerson.
Kirkman, 29, made just one appearance on the year, surrendering six hits and four earned runs in 1 1/3 innings. Long a member of the Rangers organization, Kirkman spent most of last year at the Triple-A level with the Brewers before receiving his release in August. He carried an impressive 2.81 ERA on just 19 hits over 32 innings at Colorado Springs, but his 9.6 K/9 was accompanied by a troubling 7.9 BB/9.
Mariners Outright Joe Wieland
The Mariners announced on Monday that they have outrighted the contract of righty Joe Wieland off the 40-man roster. Wieland, who passed through waivers, remains at the Triple-A level, while Seattle’s 40-man roster now sits at 39 players.
Seattle acquired Wieland from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league infielder Erick Mejia this offseason. Wieland was originally a fourth-round selection of the Rangers back in the 2008 draft but was dealt to the Padres in the 2011 Mike Adams trade and was then flipped to the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp blockbuster of the 2014-15 offseason. Wieland looked to be a potential rotation option in San Diego back in 2012 when he posted a 4.55 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in five starts (27 2/3 innings) as a 22-year-old, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that season and missed the entire 2013 campaign. A stress reaction and eventual arthroscopic surgery on his elbow cost Wieland much of the 2014 campaign, making the 2015 season the first in which he was fully healthy in two years.
Last year, Wieland worked to a 4.59 ERA in 113 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with the Dodgers organization and also tossed 8 2/3 innings at the Major League level, though he surrendered eight runs in that brief big league stint. The 2016 season has been a disaster for the now 26-year-old Wieland, however, as he’s allowed an unthinkable 25 earned runs on 36 hits and eight walks with 10 strikeouts in just 13 innings at the Triple-A level. Perhaps even more amazing is the fact that Wieland actually looked sharp through his first two outings of the year, surrendering a total of three runs with a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio in nine innings. He’s made a trio of starts since that time, though, and failed to escape the second inning while allowing at least five runs in each of the three.
Braves Designate Drew Stubbs, Option Jace Peterson
The Braves has designated outfielder Drew Stubbs for assignment, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (Twitter link). That DFA comes as part of a flurry of roster moves; the Braves have selected the contracts of veterans Reid Brignac, Chase d’Arnaud and Matt Tuiasosopo (David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported the Tuiasosopo news earlier today) and also recalled right-hander Mike Foltynewicz from Triple-A Gwinnett. Infielder Jace Peterson and right-hander John Gant have been optioned to Gwinnett as well. Atlanta has since announced the moves (also via Twitter).
Stubbs, 31, batted .237/.310/.316 with a homer and four steals in 20 games/42 plate appearances for the Braves prior to being jettisoned from the 40-man roster. He picked up his fair share of at-bats with Ender Inciarte on the disabled list while serving as part of a timeshare in center field with rookie Mallex Smith. However, with Inciarte set to return from the disabled list in the near future, his presence on the roster was perhaps deemed superfluous for Atlanta.
Peterson, 25, saw regular at-bats with the Braves for much of last season but cooled considerably down the stretch and has posted a woeful .182/.260/.205 batting line in 50 plate appearances this season. The infielder will hope to get back on track and return to the form that allowed him to bat .284/.363/.389 through his first 65 games last season. That production, though, was bolstered by a .339 batting average on balls in play, and the fact that his strikeout rate climbed in the second half of the 2015 campaign as well as early in the 2016 season (26 percent this year) suggests that returning to those heights could be a difficult task.
Brignac, d’Arnaud (the older brother of Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud) and Tuiasosopo all come with their fair share of MLB experience, though none of the bunch has enjoyed prolong success a the big league level. Given the high volume of roster turnover we’ve seen from the Braves across the past seven months of regular-season play, it seems highly plausible that none of the three will be a long-term addition to the big league roster. Foltynewicz, however, should have a chance to stick in the rotation now that fellow right-hander Bud Norris has seemingly been dropped from the rotation.
Tim Lincecum’s Showcase Set For Friday
MAY 2: The Athletics will also be in attendance, tweets John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link) report that the Rockies and Mets, respectively, will not be in attendance. Puma notes that the Mets are already comfortable with their pitching depth, and as Saunders notes, it’s highly unlikely that the Rockies would be able to convince Lincecum to attempt to revitalize his career at Coors Field.
MAY 1: Tim Lincecum will hold a long-awaited throwing showcase for scouts on Friday in Scottsdale, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). As many as 20 teams are expected to attend, including representatives from the Orioles, Padres and the Giants, Lincecum’s former team.
As of February, a return to the Giants was still Lincecum’s preference, as the right-hander told at least one person while visiting his old teammates during Spring Training, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic reports. The Giants have long said that they would be interested in a reunion with Lincecum if “the Freak” was willing to take on a bullpen role, and Pavlovic reports that this relief-only stance hasn’t necessarily changed even though the club’s rotation has had some early struggles.
Lincecum, for his part, wants to return as a starter and has been working out all winter in order to rebuild his durability and velocity following hip surgery that shortened his 2015 season. He reportedly wanted to be in top form before officially throwing for scouts, which is why the showcase (rumored to be imminent for four months) is only taking place this week. There is no small amount of mystery surrounding Lincecum’s condition as scouts have been kept away from his workouts, though recent reports have him throwing 70 pitches on an every-five-days basis and throwing in the 90 mph range off of flat ground.
If Lincecum looks good in his showcase, he would likely be able to find a starting job with one of the many interested teams, though it might be on a minor league contract given his health history. San Diego and Baltimore have both been connected to Lincecum all offseason, with both clubs perhaps in more need of starting pitching depth now due to injuries and ineffectiveness within their current rotations. The Orioles just added some veteran depth earlier this week by signing Wandy Rodriguez to a minors deal.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/2/16
Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Reds have signed former Rockies first-rounder Kyle Parker to a minor league deal, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Parker, 26, logged 112 plate appearances with the Rox last season but batted just .179/.223/.311 with three homers. The first baseman/outfielder does have solid .285/.332/.442 line in parts of two minor league seasons, and he’ll give the Reds some additional depth at what is currently a somewhat uncertain position.
- Fleet-footed minor league veteran Antoan Richardson has signed a minors pact with the Dodgers, also according to Eddy. The 32-year-old Bahamian-born outfielder has seen brief stints with the Braves and Yankees in the Majors. As Eddy notes, Richardson is the active minor league leader in on-base percentage (.394) and stolen base success rate (85 percent). Richardson is a lifetime .275/.394/.344 hitter in the minors with 15 homers and 328 steals (in 386 attempts).
- Eddy also reports that catcher Luke Carlin has signed a minor league deal with the Indians, but Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer clarifies that it’s a coaching gig (Twitter link). Carlin spent the 2010-14 seasons in the Cleveland organization and saw a bit of time in the Majors in 2010 and 2012. Carlin has 156 Major League plate appearances and has batted .179/.263/.286 in that time. He’s a career .239/.357/.350 hitter at the minor league level, where he’s prevented 31 percent of stolen base attempts and drawn consistently solid pitch-framing marks from Baseball Prospectus.
- The Braves will select the contract of infielder/outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo from Triple-A Gwinnett, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). Tuiasosopo, 29, is a well-traveled veteran that last saw the Majors in 2013 with Detroit. He’s a lifetime .207/.290/.356 hitter in 401 Major League plate appearances that has posted a considerably better .246/.352/.413 line in nearly 3,000 minor league plate appearances.
J.J. Hardy Out Four To Eight Weeks With Fractured Foot
2:08pm: CSN Mid-Atlantic’s Rich Dubroff (Twitter link) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun each have a slightly more optimistic take on Hardy’s timeline, as both cite sources in reportingt hat Hardy will miss four to six weeks, as opposed to six to eight weeks. Connolly tweets that he’s been told both four to six weeks and six to eight weeks.
1:32pm: Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy has suffered a small fracture in his foot and is heading to the disabled list, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com first reported (Twitter link). MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko adds more context, calling the injury a hairline fracture and reporting that Hardy is expected to miss six to eight weeks of action. Hardy suffered the injury in yesterday’s game after he fouled a ball off of his left foot.
Per Kubatko, the Orioles are expected to recall Ryan Flaherty from Triple-A Norfolk to take Hardy’s spot on the roster, and veteran infielder Paul Janish could also be an option once he returns from paternity leave (he’ll leave the Triple-A club Wednesday for the birth of his child). Janish isn’t currently on the 40-man roster and would thus require an additional 40-man move to be made. It’s also worth noting that Manny Machado could slide over to shortstop in Hardy’s absence, as he did for a bit in 2015 when he played seven games. Machado was originally drafted as a shortstop but moved over to third base due to Hardy’s presence when he was initially promoted to the Major Leagues.
Losing Hardy for up to two months is a notable blow to the Orioles, as the 33-year-old’s bat had bounced back somewhat early in the season, resulting in a .244/.291/.410 (90 wRC+) batting line in 86 plate appearances. While that production isn’t up to par for a league-average hitter, it’s a notable step up from the .246/.306/.372 (83 wRC+) batting line of the average big league shortstop and is more than serviceable when considering Hardy’s elite defensive contributions. While the Orioles should be able to maintain a quality infield defense with some combination of Machado, Flaherty and Janish comprising the left side of the infield, it’s likely that the net outcome of that trio — both on offense and defense — will fall shy of the would-be combination of Machado and Hardy on an everyday basis.
2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
The first month of the 2016 MLB season is in the books, and we’ve got movement in our 2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings. These rankings apply to players projected to reach free agency after this season, and the players are ranked based on earning power. In the middle of April, the Rangers unsurprisingly extended Adrian Beltre, so he’s off the list. To see the full list of 2016-17 MLB Free Agents, click here.
1. Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg was dominant in the season’s first month, carrying over his success from last year. By measure of wins above replacement, only Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard have been better. With a full season of good health, agent Scott Boras could look to push a seven-year deal for Strasburg past $240MM. An opt-out clause or two will surely figure in as well. Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July.
2. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes jumps up a spot after a huge April. In addition to seven home runs, he even managed to draw a few extra walks. A less streaky campaign than 2015, perhaps ending with around 35 home runs again, could net Cespedes the six-year deal that eluded him last winter. To take a shot at it, he’ll have to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his current contract with the Mets.
3. Jose Bautista. Bautista continues to do his thing, hitting for power and drawing lots of walks. Last week, Jon Heyman tweeted that he believes Bautista will take less than his five-year, $150MM asking price but not less than $100MM. Something a bit north of $100MM on a four-year deal does seem plausible for Bautista, who told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last month that he is willing to negotiate in-season with the Blue Jays.
4. Josh Reddick. Nothing out of the ordinary from Reddick in April. As a solid player who doesn’t turn 30 until February, Reddick could be a sneaky candidate for a five-year deal this winter. He told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that he’s not aware of any substantive extension talks with the A’s. In that column, Morosi had some interesting speculation about whether the Cubs could trade for Reddick this summer.
5. Carlos Gomez. Gomez is hitting .245/.303/.364 since June of last year, and I’ve dropped him three spots since our last rankings. The Astros’ center fielder is currently battling rib cage soreness and is trying to avoid the DL. For the Astros, Gomez just hasn’t looked like the player he was with the Brewers. Even if he performs to projections from here on out, which is a total unknown, Gomez could be limited to a four-year deal in the range of Alex Gordon‘s $72MM. He carries further downside risk if this becomes a lost season.
6. Kenley Jansen. Business as usual for Jansen, who has allowed one run in his first ten appearances. If the save opportunities continue coming as they did in April, perhaps the Dodgers’ closer can top his career high of 44 saves. It would be interesting to see a reliever earn the second-largest pitching contract of the offseason. Jansen could make that happen with a precedent-shattering five-year deal.
7. Edwin Encarnacion. Like last year, it was a rough April for Encarnacion. The Blue Jays’ designated hitter has shown many times he’s capable of going on a tear. Still, my confidence in a four-year deal for Encarnacion is wavering a bit. He’ll turn 34 in January.
8. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman’s 30-game suspension for a domestic violence incident ends a week from today, and he’ll presumably jump right into the Yankees’ closer role. He’s been working out at the Yankees’ minor league complex, taking some time last week to become a U.S. citizen. I expect Jansen to do better than Chapman in free agency, but Chapman should still land a huge contract if he stays incident-free until free agency.
9. Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli makes his first appearance in our top ten. The Pirates’ backstop has stepped it up a notch after a stellar 2015, and ranks fifth in the NL with a .438 on-base percentage. As it stands now I could see a four-year deal worth $60MM, and I think he could have a shot at five years if his offensive success continues. Quite the transformation for Cervelli, who will turn 31 shortly before the 2017 season.
10. Dexter Fowler. Like Cespedes, Fowler could find the contract that eluded him after another year back with his old team. So far in 2016, Fowler has been the best player in baseball. The Cubs’ center fielder boasts an MLB-best .470 OBP. Though he’s never approached four wins above replacement, Fowler already has two in the books after one month. If he stays healthy and productive, Fowler should be able to get a four-year deal in free agency.
Neil Walker and Michael Saunders are both pushing for a spot in our top ten after stellar starts to their seasons. Walker has already crushed nine home runs, and could reach 30 this year. Saunders is healthy and hitting after a lost 2015. Typically weaker against left-handed pitching, Saunders smacked three home runs off southpaws in April, including two off Drew Smyly. Colby Rasmus, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado, and Rich Hill are a few others off to hot starts in 2016. Andrew Cashner drops out of our top ten after a lackluster April.