The first month of the 2016 MLB season is in the books, and we’ve got movement in our 2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings. These rankings apply to players projected to reach free agency after this season, and the players are ranked based on earning power. In the middle of April, the Rangers unsurprisingly extended Adrian Beltre, so he’s off the list. To see the full list of 2016-17 MLB Free Agents, click here.
1. Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg was dominant in the season’s first month, carrying over his success from last year. By measure of wins above replacement, only Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard have been better. With a full season of good health, agent Scott Boras could look to push a seven-year deal for Strasburg past $240MM. An opt-out clause or two will surely figure in as well. Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July.
2. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes jumps up a spot after a huge April. In addition to seven home runs, he even managed to draw a few extra walks. A less streaky campaign than 2015, perhaps ending with around 35 home runs again, could net Cespedes the six-year deal that eluded him last winter. To take a shot at it, he’ll have to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his current contract with the Mets.
3. Jose Bautista. Bautista continues to do his thing, hitting for power and drawing lots of walks. Last week, Jon Heyman tweeted that he believes Bautista will take less than his five-year, $150MM asking price but not less than $100MM. Something a bit north of $100MM on a four-year deal does seem plausible for Bautista, who told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last month that he is willing to negotiate in-season with the Blue Jays.
4. Josh Reddick. Nothing out of the ordinary from Reddick in April. As a solid player who doesn’t turn 30 until February, Reddick could be a sneaky candidate for a five-year deal this winter. He told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that he’s not aware of any substantive extension talks with the A’s. In that column, Morosi had some interesting speculation about whether the Cubs could trade for Reddick this summer.
5. Carlos Gomez. Gomez is hitting .245/.303/.364 since June of last year, and I’ve dropped him three spots since our last rankings. The Astros’ center fielder is currently battling rib cage soreness and is trying to avoid the DL. For the Astros, Gomez just hasn’t looked like the player he was with the Brewers. Even if he performs to projections from here on out, which is a total unknown, Gomez could be limited to a four-year deal in the range of Alex Gordon‘s $72MM. He carries further downside risk if this becomes a lost season.
6. Kenley Jansen. Business as usual for Jansen, who has allowed one run in his first ten appearances. If the save opportunities continue coming as they did in April, perhaps the Dodgers’ closer can top his career high of 44 saves. It would be interesting to see a reliever earn the second-largest pitching contract of the offseason. Jansen could make that happen with a precedent-shattering five-year deal.
7. Edwin Encarnacion. Like last year, it was a rough April for Encarnacion. The Blue Jays’ designated hitter has shown many times he’s capable of going on a tear. Still, my confidence in a four-year deal for Encarnacion is wavering a bit. He’ll turn 34 in January.
8. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman’s 30-game suspension for a domestic violence incident ends a week from today, and he’ll presumably jump right into the Yankees’ closer role. He’s been working out at the Yankees’ minor league complex, taking some time last week to become a U.S. citizen. I expect Jansen to do better than Chapman in free agency, but Chapman should still land a huge contract if he stays incident-free until free agency.
9. Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli makes his first appearance in our top ten. The Pirates’ backstop has stepped it up a notch after a stellar 2015, and ranks fifth in the NL with a .438 on-base percentage. As it stands now I could see a four-year deal worth $60MM, and I think he could have a shot at five years if his offensive success continues. Quite the transformation for Cervelli, who will turn 31 shortly before the 2017 season.
10. Dexter Fowler. Like Cespedes, Fowler could find the contract that eluded him after another year back with his old team. So far in 2016, Fowler has been the best player in baseball. The Cubs’ center fielder boasts an MLB-best .470 OBP. Though he’s never approached four wins above replacement, Fowler already has two in the books after one month. If he stays healthy and productive, Fowler should be able to get a four-year deal in free agency.
Neil Walker and Michael Saunders are both pushing for a spot in our top ten after stellar starts to their seasons. Walker has already crushed nine home runs, and could reach 30 this year. Saunders is healthy and hitting after a lost 2015. Typically weaker against left-handed pitching, Saunders smacked three home runs off southpaws in April, including two off Drew Smyly. Colby Rasmus, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado, and Rich Hill are a few others off to hot starts in 2016. Andrew Cashner drops out of our top ten after a lackluster April.
I like Strasburg, but 7/240 is 34+M/yr. That’s sounds insane to me for someone with his injury history and a short string of truly being what he was supposed to me. I don’t think i’d pay any pitcher that much money, but Strasburg also wouldn’t be my first choice.
bro you and i have same thoughts. I also like Strasburg and first choice either.
I agree with both of u.
Yep yep yep
He will get it or close if he has an ace-like healthy season. He has youth on his side which will be huge for him.
I’m not saying Cervelli doesn’t deserve 4/60, but a team would be foolish to make that kind of a commitment to a player who’s only had one healthy season out of 8.
Most of Cervelli’s injuries have been freak accidents. Collision at the plate during spring training that broke his hand, hit in the head by a pitch causing a concussion, foul ball off his shin, foul tip into his ribs while he was behind the plate. The main reason he hasn’t been injured with the Pirates is he’s just been luckier.
I hope after this season the Dodgers let Crawford walk. I’d actually keep Ethier around for spot starts along with Kike and SVS but I’d give most of the playing time next year to Thompson. Hope they don’t go out and spend on a big bat in free agency. They gotta lock up Jansen and would be rad if they put McCarthy in the pen, Wood in the pen and signed strausburg. I know that’s probably not gonna happen that would be a great staff if Ryu can stay healthy and Maeda stays consistent. Slide Kazmir to the fifth spot. Kershaw, Strausburg, Maeda, Ryu and Kazmir would make a sick 1-5. Think I need to make that happen on PS4 since it’ll never happen in real life haha
I don’t think they sign Strausburg (at least at 7/$240), but that’d be a disgusting rotation. Maeda has impressed me. I think he’ll probably regress a bit, but solid signing for years to come.
If the Cubs can scrape up enough leftover cash for Strasburg, that would be spectacular. Assuming he’s healthy enough.
so you want to pay what will end up being at least 180 million to Stras the off-season before you need to extend Arrieta? That’s one expensive rotation right there loaded with salary, age, and injury concerns
Let Arrieta walk. He will be 32 when contract begins.
Highly doubt Theo lets him leave. Casual Cubs fans would erupt with anger and would be calling for managements head if they let him walk after they handed out Heyward a contract that wasn’t needed for that team
Yes, because the way that the Theo regime has acted surely shows that they put the casual fan before intelligent baseball decisions.
Theo doesn’t have to let him leave. Arrieta has all the choice in the matter.
Cubs can afford both. They’ve been saving for the past few year and have got to be on of the higher revenue teams out there.
If this were 2019 the Cubs would probably have real interest, so I’d expect any addition to their staff to be a young, controllable arm via trade.
The Cubs should focus on extending Arrieta. if they wanted another pitcher they should just trade for one. I think Strasburg ends up with the dodgers or yankees.
Why should they focus on extending a guy that wants a contract that will run through his age 38 season?
Arrieta is on an historic run, They need to keep him long term. they really don’t have a pitcher in the farm on his level yet. But they could always trade for another ace like sonny gray.
What does Jake Arrieta being on a “historical run” right now have to do with signing him to a foolishly long extension? Why do they need to keep him long term? You think he’ gonna be anywhere close to this good when he’s 38? No team has a pitcher in the farm on his level, so that’s a moot point. And finally, they do not need to trade for another ace, like sonny gray, because they have jake for this year and next year and have lester and can figure it out in 2 years when they need to.
I really don’t understand this idea that the cubs need to rush out and get some “third ace” for their staff
I don’t think they need another ace like gray , Im just saying it would be nice to see but it won’t happen. I mean if they wanted another pitcher, could look at tyson ross or one of the pitchers on the indians not named kluber.
I am a Cubs fan and struggle with the potential dead money @ ages 38-39 (years 6-7 after his 2nd arb year). I am hoping the Cubs-Arietta-Boras will agree to a ‘6’ or a ‘7’, where (1) is actually his last arb year. Still risky with Lester aging out at the same time, but I don’t want the Cubs being reckless with the money we do have (a la Boston).
Re Strasbourg, I don’t like his injury history at ‘any’ $20 mm price tag …
Tough call, but classic reason why young controllable starting pitching is so valuable …
Next 2-3 years is where the Cubs will start to see how well they can develop pitching. Doesn’t look like anything special coming up, but I still have my fingers crossed … (This is why theo/Jed get paid the big bucks)
Would
Age is just a number and Arrieta is a latebloomer. If I were a Cubs fan, I would be ecstatic if they were able to get him til then. If nothing else, hed be a solid veteran presence at the end of the rotation
The thing is the Cubs can’t “just extend” Arrieta. Baseball players are people, not baseball cards, and as people they have this funny thing called FREE WILL. Arrieta doesn’t have to take an extension if he doesn’t want to and there is no reason for him to forego free agency while being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Even if he likes it in Chicago it makes all the sense in the world to at least test the free agent market and see what other teams are offering. And I think his agent Scott Boras knows this.
MLBTR really needs to examine a bit what kind of contracts they are advocating …
$18M AAV for Gomez??? Really??? Cleary a player in a severe decline and at 30 he’s not getting any younger/better.
Nice job in the Heyward hype … while the season is still young, his performance is even below what I expected based on his mediocre career line. ZERO home runs? Wow, I guess you must be looking at some way advanced defensive metrics to justify that contract, huh?
Reddick as your no. 4 prospective FA? Talk about mediocre.
I’m not advocating anything. Players will sign for whatever the market will bear, we’re just trying to predict it for fun with the info we currently have.
I feel like I framed the Gomez situation in a neutral way, if you read the whole thing.
Doesn’t matter to me whether players justify their contracts.
Nice reply Tim, love the write up and the work you all do over there. Any chance of the mailbag coming back?
Yes, fangraphs defensive and bsr war are very, very, super secret advanced stats.
Other than Tim being a Cub fan, why would he care if Heyward justifies his contract? It’s not as if Epstein came to MLBTR, read an article on Heyward’s case for 200 million, and then pulled the trigger. I’m not in complete agreement with these figures either (have a hard time seeing 60 million for Cervelli, 100 for Bautista, or 240 for Strasburg), but your criticism was pretty bizarre- all these are are estimates of earning power
I don’t know of any Cubs fans complaining about the return on heyward … He’s doing just what we need/want him to do… He was hitting .250 until July last year as well, no worries
Not that there’s any way he keeps up at this rate, but Mat Latos should be mentioned in the “free agents to be who are off to hot starts,” especially considering the thin pitching market next off season.
What about James Shields? He can opt out after this season and could possibly be the 2nd best SP available.
The fact that Jordan Zimmermann had Tommy John surgery seemed to have reduced his earning power. I wonder how much impact having Tommy John surgery will have on strasburg’s earnings?
I actually think it didnt. He still got a substantial payday. He left the market very early and before the big guns like Greinke and Price signed. He would have been able to command more if he waited to sign
Gomez got burned by Scott Boras. He was on pace to become a FA after the 2013 season, when he would have commanded a lot more than the 4 year $28 million he got after the 2012 season. But Boras wanted to maximize the deal he got for Ellsbury who was hitting FA the same time as Gomez would have, so he sacrificed Gomez a year early to get the big publicity deal for Ellsbury.
As it looks now Gomez could be headed back to Milwaukee (where he stated he’d like to eventually return) in 2017 on a minor league deal or minimal short term contract.
I’m pretty sure there is a zero percent chance he signs a minor league deal. Worst case scenario he signs a 1 year deal for 5-10 million like Desmond did
Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox plan to sign all of them.
Just kidding.
At first glance it’s hard to keep my beverage from going into my nasal cavity when Cervelli is in the top 10… but he’s not the same guy he was on the Yankees bench. He’s turned into a pretty dang good catcher and that’s definitely a premium position. He is turning 31 which for a catcher is like turning 38. I’d personally be really hesitant to commit to four years at that price considering he’s right in catchers-start-to-fall-apart time.
Don’t forget Cervelli, does not have the mileage that most starting ML catchers have at 31. He started out as a back-up, and he has missed several games due to what some people would call “freak” injuries.
I’m aware that I’m probably in the minority here, but I believe Cervelli will successfully play out his next contract, even at 4 or 5 years.
In terms of mileage, Cervelli at 31, I would equate his playing time to most catchers at their age 27-28 seasons. Which would easily give him another solid 4-5 years without hardly any decline.
Personally, I hope the Braves swoop in and sign Cervelli, until either Morales or Herbert are possibly ready to take over the reigns…
Cervelli has been a huge part of Pittsburghs’ pitchers success, and he does NOT get nearly enough credit for his ability to call a game behind the dish!!
With Atlanta having young guns like Wisler, Blair, Foltynewicz, Sims, Barker, Newcomb, Jenkins, Ellis, Gant, Hursh, Kinman, Roby. and Cabrera all either already at the show or coming up in the next season or two, a catcher like Cervelli would do absolute wonders for these young pitchers and he would help their growth tremendously!!
Also, by the way, Atlanta’s depth of young pitchers is absolutely absurd!!
This list does not even include two of the most under rated SP prospects in baseball, Max Povse and Mike Soroka. Then add-in Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Ricardo Sanchez, Rob Whalen, Zach Bird, AJ Minter, Josh Graham, Matt Withrow, Carlos Salazar, Ryan Clark, Chase Mullins-Johnson, Wes Parsons, Anthony Guardado, and a man who hasn’t allowed an earned run in over 11 IP from the pen in Evan Phillips…Just ridiculousness!!