MLBTR Chat Transcript: 1/28/16
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat.
Rockies, Rays Nearing Trade
The Rockies and Rays are nearing an unspecified trade, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
It’s not entirely clear at present what could be involved. Recent reports have suggested the clubs could match up on a deal, potentially including outfielder Corey Dickerson on the Colorado side and reliever Jake McGee on the Tampa Bay side. But others have cast doubt on such a scenario, and it isn’t hard to imagine other ways the sides could come together.
Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Ivan Nova
We’ll track the day’s arbitration agreements in this post:
- The Yankees have reached agreement on a $4.1MM salary with righty Ivan Nova, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. Nova had asked for $4.6MM, with the team countering at $3.8MM, after projecting at $4.4MM. He’ll also have some incentives in the agreement. The 29-year-old, who was coming back from Tommy John surgery last year, worked to a disappointing 5.07 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 94 innings. He has had solid results at times in the past, though, and did at least show that his velocity was all the way back in 2015. Nova will be a free agent after the season.
Astros Sign Doug Fister
The Astros have announced the signing of righty Doug Fister to a one-year deal. The PSI Sports Management client will receive a $7MM guarantee in the contract, which includes incentives that can boost its total value to $12MM, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
Heading into the winter, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a one-year pact in the $10MM range for the towering right-hander. While he falls shy of that, in terms of guarantee, Dierkes rightly pegged Houston as the landing spot.
It’s easy to see the appeal for an Astros club that has plenty of rotation options, but still carried some uncertainty. Fister will presumably slot in toward the back of a staff fronted by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. It’s not exactly clear how things will line up otherwise, but the depth looks solid. Youngster Lance McCullers Jr. showed so much promise last year that it’s hard not to imagine him in the rotation. Scott Feldman is still facing some injury uncertainty after he was shut down late last year, though he says he’s healthy. And Mike Fiers had good results upon joining Houston, including a no-hitter, though he also could feature as a high-end swingman.
Fister, who’ll soon turn 32, is a classic bounceback candidate. After several strong years in Detroit, he put up a stellar 2.41 ERA over 164 frames in 2014, his first season with the Nationals. But things took a turn south last year, as he dealt with injury issues and lost his rotation spot after he was tagged for a 4.60 ERA and .302/.341/.471 batting line in 15 starts.
Though he showed better form working out of the pen, there are some concerns that extend beyond the results. Fister has never been reliant on velocity, but his average sinker lost 1.7 ticks in dropping all the way to 86.1 mph in 2015. Typically a reliable groundball producer, Fister induced grounders on just 44.6% of the balls put in play against him.
Fister also allowed home runs at a much higher rate than usual in his final season in D.C. And while he’s never been a strikeout pitcher, his 5.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 represented the worst K:BB ratio he’s logged since his debut season. Advanced metrics have always lagged results for the veteran, but they were especially down on him last year. He ended up with a 4.55 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA to accompany the 4.19 ERA that he tallied over his 103 total frames.
Of course, Fister battled through a forearm strain to open the year, which could go a long way towards explaining his struggles. If he can build up in camp at full strength, it isn’t hard to imagine that he might return to being a quality rotation piece — even if it would be a bit optimistic to expect a repeat of that 2014 effort. While he hasn’t always put up huge innings tallies, Fister has generally been rather durable over his career, and the Astros will surely hope he can fill up some frames with average-or-better run prevention numbers in 2016.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Who’ll Sign Dexter Fowler?
It’s been a largely quiet offseason so far for outfielder Dexter Fowler, and that’s surprising in some ways. On the other hand, the market moved first for pitchers, and we’ve seen a steady stream of outfield signings since we hit 2016. With players in front of him such as Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon, not to mention more direct competition in the former of Denard Span and the still-unsigned Austin Jackson, Fowler has simply had to wait.
While pre-winter predictions may no longer really apply, and the qualifying offer seems an increasing burden, that doesn’t mean that Fowler isn’t in demand. After all, he’s yet to turn 30, is capable of playing up the middle, and has consistently produced at the plate. Since the start of 2013, Fowler owns a 112 OPS+, and he swatted a career-best 17 long balls last year.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams and I talked through his market in last week’s podcast, and our own Tim Dierkes looked at every team in the league in relation to Fowler in his newsletter yesterday. (You can find information for subscribing to that free weekly feature right here.)
There are some good options still, though it’s hard to peg a clear favorite. Tim wrote that he sees the most plausible landing spots — for a variety of reasons, and under different scenarios — as the White Sox, Brewers, Giants, Indians, Orioles, Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Cardinals, Padres, and Phillies. From my perspective, a reunion with the Cubs still seems plausible, though as Tim noted that might only make sense in the event of a trade.
Which of those teams do you think seems most likely? Or, could a dark horse emerge?
Which Team Is Most Likely To Sign Dexter Fowler?
-
Cubs 27% (4,299)
-
White Sox 23% (3,608)
-
Orioles 9% (1,480)
-
Cardinals 9% (1,448)
-
Other 8% (1,311)
-
Indians 6% (935)
-
Giants 4% (657)
-
Rangers 4% (599)
-
Padres 3% (481)
-
Athletics 3% (466)
-
Phillies 2% (370)
-
Brewers 2% (283)
Total votes: 15,937
Central Notes: Molina, Walden, Rosenthal, Mesoraco, Reds, Plouffe
The Cardinals will increasingly need to consider a long-term replacement for Yadier Molina, to say nothing of preparing for a season in which he’ll be looking to return from two thumb surgeries, as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Frederickson spoke with two potential future options behind the dish, Michael Ohlman and Carson Kelly. He adds that St. Louis GM John Mozeliak is still looking to add another veteran option to the mix this spring for depth purposes. While the Cards remain confident that Yadi will be ready to go for 2016, he’s still sporting protection for his thumb at present. Of course, the club still seems committed to relying on Molina — along with new backup Brayan Pena — for the bulk of its backstop duties this year.
Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:
- MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch provides some notable Cardinals pen updates in a reader mailbag post. Reliever Jordan Walden is expected to go through a normal spring ramp-up, though she says there’s still uncertainty in his shoulder. The organization does not appear to have any immediate interest in extension talks with closer Trevor Rosenthal, Langosch adds, though there’s little urgency since he only just reached arbitration.
- Reds backstop Devin Mesoraco says that he’s feeling well and looking forward to a return after undergoing hip surgery last summer, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. “I’m good. I’m anxious to get back out on the field here,” Mesoraco said. “It’s been a long haul with rehabbing and working out. Everything is feeling the way that it should, the way that we planned.”
- There’s no shortage of left field options for the Reds as camp approaches, Sheldon writes, listing Yorman Rodriguez, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Jake Cave, and Kyle Waldrop. “Those are the guys,” said GM Dick Williams. “Some of those guys can play multiple positions. There are guys that can play multiple outfield spots. [Juan] Duran will be in camp, and [Tyler] Holt. [Jesse] Winker, Waldrop and some of the younger guys, too.”
- The Twins never had serious conversations with third baseman Trevor Plouffe about a long-term deal while negotiating his arb salary this year, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Of course, there’s plenty of time to chat this spring if there’s interest, but it’s not clear that Minnesota would or should pursue a lengthy pact with the 29-year-old, who remains under team control for one more year via arbitration.
- Meanwhile, the Twins are not interested in southpaw reliever Eric O’Flaherty, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports on Twitter. O’Flaherty was said to be showcasing for scouts yesterday, but it seems that Minnesota won’t be one of the clubs taking a closer look.
Latest On Korean First Baseman Dae-Ho Lee
Korean first baseman Dae-ho Lee, who has spent the past two seasons playing for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, is weighing offers from three Major League teams, according to a Korean media report from Michael Min (hat tip: Han Lee of Global Sporting Integration, on Twitter). Recently, Jee-ho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency wrote that Lee was planning to return home this weekend after training with his former team, the Korea Basbeall Organization’s Lotte Giants, in Arizona. However, Yoo now reports that Lee will postpone his trip to meet with an MLB club. It’s not clear whether the team with which Lee is meeting this weekend is a new entrant into the bidding or if he’s continuing negotiations with a club to which he has already spoken. Notably, Yoo also says that the Hawks would like to re-sign Lee and are slated to begin their own Spring Training next week, perhaps creating an urgency to make a decision.
A right-handed hitter, the 33-year-old Lee is an accomplished player in both NPB and in the KBO. He’s OPSed well over .800 across the past four seasons in Japan, including a very strong .282/.368/.524 batting line with 31 homers and 30 doubles this past season in Japan. A former KBO MVP, Lee has a lifetime batting line of .303/.387/.514 and a career-high 44 home runs, coming back in 2010 (although that was at age 28, and he’s traditionally been more of a 25- to 30-homer bat).
Lee, who is listed at 6’4″ and 286 pounds, is limited to first base and designated hitter from a defensive standpoint, but there are many clubs that could look to add someone of that skill set with his type of upside — especially if the current asking price is one year, as the Japanese report above indicates. The Astros don’t have a definitive answer at first base to begin the season, for instance, and Lee could present competition for Jon Singleton and serve as a stopgap to top prospect A.J. Reed. The Cardinals could consider him a potential platoon partner for Brandon Moss and/or Matt Adams, while the Mariners could look at him in a similar light and hope to pair him with Adam Lind. All of those fits, of course, are speculative.
Back in December, Lee’s reported goals were to sign with a winning club that offered the opportunity for regular playing time. It might be difficult to come by a contending team with a notable hole at first base or DH at this point (although Houston does fit that bill to some extent). Lee met with multiple clubs at last month’s Winter Meetings in Nashville, though little has been reported in terms of the teams to which he has actually spoken. The Pirates were said at one point to have some interest in Lee, though Pittsburgh does have Mike Morse and the since-acquired Jason Rogers as potential in-house options as right-handed-hitting first basemen.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1-27-16
Here are today’s minor league signings from around baseball…
- The Cubs and left-handed reliever Nick Greenwood have agreed to a minor league contract, MLBTR has learned. The 28-year-old Greenwood was originally drafted by the Padres in 2009 but traded to the Cardinals in the three-team Jake Westbrook/Corey Kluber/Ryan Ludwick trade back in 2010. Greenwood made a brief appearance in the Majors last season but was more heavily relied upon in 2014, when he pitched 36 innings with a 4.75 ERA and a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio for St. Louis. The Rhode Island product has been used as both a starter and a reliever throughout his minor league career, though he’ll return to working primarily as a reliever in 2016 after starting for much of the 2015 campaign. Greenwood has a lifetime 4.99 ERA at the Triple-A level, where he’s averaged 4.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 313 2/3 innings of work. Greenwood’s deal doesn’t contain an invite to big league Spring Training, so he’ll hope to earn his way back to the Majors by replicating his 2014 performance from Triple-A.
- The Astros announced yesterday that they’ve signed left-hander Edwar Cabrera and infielder Danny Worth to minor league deals. The 28-year-old Cabrera briefly saw Major League time with the Rockies in 2012 but has otherwise spent his career in the minors, where he owns a 4.21 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 77 innings at the Triple-A level and a 3.15 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 277 innings at Double-A. As for Worth, the 30-year-old has considerably more big league experience, having tallied 292 plate appearances with the Tigers from 2010-14. He’s a career .230/.293/.295 hitter in the Majors but can play all over the infield and owns a .256/.335/.374 batting line in parts of eight seasons at Triple-A. Both Worth and Cabrera were invited to Major League Spring Training.
- The Rangers announced today that they’ve re-signed right-hander Nick Tepesch to a minor league deal and invited him to Spring Training. The 27-year-old missed the 2015 season and underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in August, but the press release announcing the move indicates that he’s throwing off a mound and will be ready for Spring Training. Tepesch appeared in 42 games — 39 of them starts — for the Rangers from 2013-14, logging a 4.56 ERA with 5.4 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 219 innings of work. Presumably, he’ll serve as rotation depth.
Central Notes: Fowler, Mesoraco, Tomlin, Twins, Cardinals
The White Sox and Cubs continue to monitor the market for free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler, writes Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com/CBS Chicago. Both clubs are checking in on Fowler’s market on a daily basis, Levine adds. Levine spoke to one executive from another team that called the Cubs the likeliest landing spot for Fowler, though based on the anonymous quote, that appears to be purely speculative as opposed to any form of definitive knowledge. The report notes that Fowler could settle for a one- or two-year deal (possibly with a player option, in keeping with the offseason’s opt-out trend), although that, too, appears to be fairly speculative in nature. While Levine and the unnamed exec feel that Fowler should have accepted the qualifying offer, it’s easy to make such claims with the benefit of hindsight, and I’d contest that no such claims can be made until the parameters of Fowler’s eventual deal are known. Even if Fowler comes in at a number lesser than the value of the qualifying offer, the upside in testing the market (tens of millions of dollars) significantly outweighed a possible difference of a few million dollars, in my eyes.
More from the game’s Central divisions…
- Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that his surgically repaired hip is 100 percent, and he’ll be ready to go when pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. Mesoraco suffered a hip impingement in the first month of a four-year contract extension and was limited to 23 contests last year before undergoing surgery in June. However, the 2014 All-Star says he’s been hitting for “a couple of months” and has also progressed to catching drills, including blocking/receiving pitches, throwing across the diamond. Mesoraco says in terms of work behind the plate he is doing “just about everything with no pain.”
- Right-hander Josh Tomlin, who signed a two-year deal with the Indians yesterday (including a club option for a third season), spoke to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian about the decision to sign the contract. “I didn’t really look towards the free-agent part,” said Tomlin, who would’ve hit the open market next winter had he not signed the deal. “I’ve been a Cleveland Indian since 2006. When they approached my agent about that contract, it was something that excited me and it got me looking forward to the season and I appreciated it. It’s something we talked about and we were able to reach an agreement that I was happy with, that they were happy with. I wasn’t really looking toward the future and seeing, ‘OK, these guys are getting this much money. I could potentially have that kind of money.’ That never entered into my head. It was, ‘Cleveland Indians wanted to give me a shot and I’m all about it.'” GM Mike Chernoff tells Bastian that the plan for 2016 is for Tomlin to pitch in the rotation. Assuming that Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer all remain healthy, that would seem to leave right-hander Cody Anderson, who was solid in his big league debut this past season, without a spot in the starting five. Then again, virtually no team makes it through a season with only five starters, so Anderson and others should have chances to start throughout the year.
- There were no real discussions of a long-term pact between the Twins and Trevor Plouffe‘s representatives at CAA before the two sides agreed to a $7.25MM salary for the 2016 season, per 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). As it stands, Plouffe will be eligible for free agency following the 2017 campaign. He was an oft-speculated trade candidate earlier this winter due to the emergence of Miguel Sano and the signing of Korean slugger Byung-ho Park, who will push Sano away from the DH spot. Minnesota plans to use Sano in right field for the time being, though Plouffe’s future with the club and Sano’s positioning on the diamond figure to remain connected, as Sano has spent the bulk of his minor league career at third base.
- Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press spoke to Twins GM Terry Ryan about the steps that the club is taking to make Park’s transition from Korea to the United States as smooth as possible. Minnesota has hired a translator of Park’s choosing and has also been in contact with several Pirates officials about the transition process for Jung Ho Kang in 2015 in an effort to make the process as seamless as possible for their new DH. Ryan notes that the fact that both Kang and Park are represented by Octagon’s Alan Nero also helps, as Nero adds another person familiar with the adjustment process to the fold.
- The Cardinals aren’t exactly certain of when Yadier Molina will be healthy enough to make his 2016 debut, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which creates opportunities for internal options like Michael Ohlman and Carson Kelly to make the roster as a backup to offseason signee Brayan Pena. Non-roster invites such as veteran Eric Fryer also could find themselves with a greater opportunity to see some Major League time due to the uncertainty. However, even though Ohlman has only been with the Cardinals organization for a little less than a year, he outlined Molina’s importance to the roster when speaking to Frederickson. “He controls the clubhouse,” said Ohlman. “It’s his team.” Molina underwent thumb surgery back in October and had to undergo a second operation in December after the first one did not fully correct the ligament issue.
Francisco Cervelli Open To Extension With Pirates
Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli is open to a long-term contract with the club, reports Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. While the notion of a player being open to locking in millions of guaranteed dollars isn’t always headline news, Cervelli’s willingness to sign long-term is more notable, as he’s one season away from hitting free agency, where he’d join Matt Wieters as one of the top catchers on the open market.
Sawchik reports that Cervelli’s asking price is roughly three years and $39MM — a sum that would’ve seemed considerably more lofty a year ago, prior to Cervelli’s breakout 2015 campaign. Last season marked the first time in his career that Cervelli remained healthy for a whole season and served as a team’s everyday backstop, and the results were excellent. Cervelli’s age-29 season yielded a .295/.370/.401 batting line with a career-high seven home runs. The numbers are particularly impressive when juxtaposed with the mere .238/.302/.376 batting line that Major League catchers averaged in 2015 and with his standout receiving skills. While Cervelli struggled to some extent in limiting the running game (22 percent caught-stealing rate), Cervelli trailed only Yasmani Grandal in terms of pitch-framing value, per Baseball Prospectus. Meanwhile, StatCorner.com ranked him as the game’s top pitch-framer.
The $39MM figure (which would begin in 2017, as Cervelli is already signed at $3.5MM in 2016) would be significant for the Pirates, who have long dealt with payroll constraints, but we’ve seen the catching market place a premium on defense in recent years, as evidenced by Russell Martin‘s $82MM contract with the Blue Jays and, conversely, by the fact that Wilin Rosario opted for a deal in the Korea Baseball Organization upon hitting the open market, despite carrying a significantly more powerful bat than the average catcher.
As Sawchik notes, the team is faced with a decision regarding Cervelli. Pittsburgh has two of the game’s top-rated catching prospects in the form of Reese McGuire (the No. 4 catching prospect in baseball, per Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com) and Elias Diaz (No. 6 on that same list). Baseball America rated the duo as the Pirates’ No. 6 (McGuire) and No. 10 (Diaz) prospects back in November, and both are nearing Major League readiness. McGuire figures to open the season at the Double-A level, and Diaz received a taste of the Majors last September after slashing .271/.330/.382 as a 24-year-old at the Triple-A level.
The Pirates could conceivably let Cervelli walk after the season — perhaps making him a qualifying offer with a strong enough performance — and then hand the reins over to one of the promising up-and-comers. On the other hand, prospects are no sure thing, and Cervelli looked every bit the part of a high quality starting catcher last season. Were he extended, the club could also utilize Diaz and/or McGuire as highly appealing trade chips in order to address other deficiencies throughout the roster as they arise. Either catcher could also serve as Cervelli’s backup, though the club did just ink fellow defensive standout Chris Stewart to a two-year deal with a third-year option.
Payroll considerations figure to heavily impact the Pirates’ ultimate course of action. While the club will shed a fair bit of payroll next offseason when Mark Melancon reaches free agency, the team will likely need to add to its bullpen to replace Melancon, and beyond that, ace Gerrit Cole will reach arbitration eligibility following the 2016 season. The three years of a theoretical Cervelli extension would coincide with Cole’s three arbitration seasons and with two of the same seasons for right fielder Gregory Polanco, further complicating matters for Pittsburgh. The Pirates will also need to make a call on newcomer Jon Niese‘s $10MM and $11MM club options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons. And looking even further down the road, the future of franchise face Andrew McCutchen has to be considered, although McCutchen is controlled through 2018 as it as, at which point he’ll be 32, so that issue isn’t as immediate a concern for the Bucs.