Latest On Ian Desmond
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently wrote that Ian Desmond‘s lingering presence on the free-agent market continues to increase the possibility of a deal between Desmond and the Rays, and today, Topkin explored that topic on a much more in-depth scale.
Per Topkin, Desmond — a Sarasota, Fla. native — has indicated that he would like to play for the Rays. There are a number of other factors working in favor of a match between the two sides, Topkin notes, including the fact that Desmond shares the same agency as Rays skipper Kevin Cash and is close friends with Rays right fielder Steven Souza (from the pair’s days together with the Nationals). However, the Rays are loath to surrender the No. 13 overall pick in order to sign him, considering the importance of the draft to the cost-conscious club. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo recently tweeted the same sentiment; the Rays have some interest in Desmond but consider the draft pick forfeiture a “huge obstacle” to an earnest pursuit.
Adding Desmond to the fold would shift Brad Miller from receiving the lion’s share of playing time at shortstop into a utility role, though he was deployed in a similar capacity over the past few years in Seattle. Beyond the draft pick and Desmond’s fit on the roster, the length of the deal represents an issue as well. Desmond would likely need to be amenable to a short-term deal — either one year (perhaps with an option) or two years — in order to make a signing realistic, per Topkin. It’s not clear whether Desmond’s asking price has dropped to that point or if he’s still seeking a multi-year deal, however. Alternatively, Desmond’s camp could seek a contract similar to the three-year contract with a one-year opt-out that Yoenis Cespedes just signed with the Mets (of course, at a considerably lower annual rate than Cespedes’ $25MM mark). The contract structure, as Jeff and I discussed on the MLBTR Podcast a few weeks back, makes sense for a number of remaining free agents as a modernized version of the traditional one-year “pillow” deal.
Desmond is just one of four remaining free agents to have rejected a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer that still remains on the market. While the Nationals are the lone team that would not need to sacrifice an existing draft pick to sign Desmond (though they’d be forfeiting the right to add an additional pick should he sign elsewhere), James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that there won’t be a reunion between the two parties. Desmond and the Nats haven’t had any form of contract negotiations this offseason, and the additions of Daniel Murphy and Stephen Drew have likely solidified the team’s group of middle infielders, especially with Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo rising through the minor league ranks.
Coming off a season that saw him bat just .233/.290/.384, Desmond’s stock is undeniably weaker than many anticipated prior to the 2015 campaign, although the second half of the season did see him rebound to a more Desmond-esque .261/.331/.446 batting line. Detractors question Desmond’s glove at shortstop — he had a bout of extreme error proneness early in 2015 — and his rising strikeout rate, while those who remain high on his abilities can point to the fact that he’s batted a collective .264/.317/.443 and averaged 22 homers and 20 steals per season since 2012. Jeff recently polled MLBTR readers on whether Desmond or fellow qualifying-offer-hampered free agent Howie Kendrick would earn more, and Desmond won the voting decisively.
In addition to the Rays, some speculative landing spots for Desmonds (from my point of view) include the White Sox, Rockies, D-backs, Braves, Twins, Tigers and Indians (a move to third base or second base would be required for some of those fits), though not all of those clubs are an ideal fit, and a number of them seem reluctant to part with their top unprotected pick. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explored some of those clubs and other potential fits in an edition of the MLBTR Newsletter (for which you can sign up here).
Mets Designate Darrell Ceciliani For Assignment
The Mets announced today that they have designated outfielder Darrell Ceciliani for assignment, which will clear clear a spot on the team’s 40-man roster for the newly re-signed Yoenis Cespedes (Twitter link).
The 25-year-old Ceciliani made his big league debut with the Mets in 2015 and batted .206/.270/.279 in 75 plate appearances. While that batting clearly leaves something to be desired, Ceciliani posted huge numbers in the (admittedly hitter-friendly) Triple-A Pacific Coast League, batting .345/.398/.581 with nine homers and 16 steals in 255 trips to the plate. Ceciliani has a history of solid production in the minor leagues, and he’s capable of playing all three outfield positions as well. In last season’s highly limited sample (129 total innings between left field and center field), Ceciliani rated at +6 Defensive Runs Saved and +4.2 runs above average, per Ultimate Zone Rating. Ceciliani has bounced around Baseball America’s list of top Mets prospects dating back to 2010, though he’s slipped each season and rated as the team’s No. 31 prospect last offseason.
Dodgers Outright Brandon Beachy
The Dodgers announced today that they have outrighted Brandon Beachy off the 40-man roster. In announcing the move, the Dodgers noted that the right-hander “is still set to appear in big league camp,” so it seems that he’ll look to crack the 25-man roster once Spring Training gets underway. That’s notable, as Beachy could have rejected the outright assignment in favor of free agency (as is his right as a player with more than three years of Major League service time), though doing so would have meant forfeiting the $1.5MM he was guaranteed on the one-year contract he signed just three weeks ago.
The move is somewhat strange, as Los Angeles is effectively guaranteeing $1.5MM to a minor league signee, although if any team in the league is capable of that type of financial maneuvering, it’s the Dodgers. It’s unclear precisely how Beachy would fit into the Dodgers’ rotation picture, as it’s become rather crowded this offseason despite the departure of Zack Greinke. Clayton Kershaw will, of course, return atop the rotation, and he’ll be followed by lefties Scott Kazmir and Brett Anderson as well as right-handed newcomer Kenta Maeda. Beyond that quartet, the Dodgers have Alex Wood as an option for the fifth spot, with injured hurlers like Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy on the mend. Right-hander Mike Bolsinger, who made 21 starts with a 3.62 ERA for the Dodgers last season, remains in the picture as well.
Certainly, Beachy could compete for a bullpen spot as well, though the Dodgers have no shortage of options in that capacity, either. Kenley Jansen will anchor the back of the bullpen, and the list of right-handed relief options behind him includes Chris Hatcher, Yimi Garcia, Carlos Frias, Pedro Baez, Josh Ravin and the recently signed Joe Blanton. Lefties J.P. Howell and Luis Avilan should be locks for bullpen spots, and fellow southpaws Adam Liberatore and Ian Thomas are in the mix as well.
With the removal of Beachy, the Dodgers’ 40-man roster now stands at 39 players.
Pitching Notes: Tomlin, O’Flaherty, Masterson, Marlins, Breslow
Indians righty Josh Tomlin and club GM Mike Chernoff discussed their newly-minted extension, as Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. While noting that Tomlin has some experience in the pen, Chernoff said that “he’ll have every opportunity to be in the starting rotation” this year. For the pitcher, the agreement was not just about maximizing his career earnings. “When they approached my agent about that contract, it was something that excited me and got me looking forward to this season,” he said. “I wasn’t really looking towards the future saying, ‘OK, these guys are getting this much money. I could potentially have that kind of money.’ It never entered my head. It was, ‘The Cleveland Indians wanted to give me a shot and I’m all about it.’”
Here’s the latest on the market for arms:
- Veteran lefty Eric O’Flaherty is set to throw for scouts today in Seattle, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). He’ll be looking to prove that he’s not only healthy, but has worked out some mechanical kinks, per the report. Soon to turn 31, O’Flaherty endured a tough 2015 campaign — in particular, he showed an uncharacteristic inability to avoid the free pass — and will be looking for an opportunity to bounce back in 2016.
- Righty Justin Masterson is beginning a throwing program and could be lining up a mid-March display for teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. We’ve heard previously of interest from a handful of clubs, but it seems that the one-time Indians stalwart will be looking to show off his form at full strength before signing.
- The Marlins had interest in right-hander Bronson Arroyo before he inked with the Nationals, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and the team is leaning toward other free agent options that won’t require a guaranteed deal. While Miami will still consider a rotation piece on a MLB deal, per the report, it will only do so if it’s sure that any such player is at full health. Frisaro explains that the team is looking to maximize an approximately $75MM payroll with players that will be on the field.
- Left-hander Craig Breslow is drawing interest from teams that view him as both a rotation and pen possibility, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The 35-year-old has been looking for a chance at a late-career move back to the rotation after a successful pair of starts late last year.
Angels Acquire Jefry Marte, Designate Ronald Torreyes
The Angels have announced a trade to acquire corner infielder Jefry Marte from the Tigers in exchange for second baseman Kody Eaves. Marte had been designated for assignment to clear roster space for the signing of Justin Upton.
To create a 40-man spot, Los Angeles designated infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets. The 23-year-old had only just been claimed off waivers. He’s bounced around quite a bit of late and could be destined for another team unless he clears this time.
Marte, 24, debuted last year for Detroit, slashing .213/.284/.413 with four home runs in 90 plate appearances. Marte cracked the Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects list before the 2009 season, but his development took some time. After a middling 2014 campaign at Double-A, he put up strong results in 2015 at the Triple-A level. In 399 plate appearances there, he carried a .275/.341/.487 batting line and swatted 25 long balls.
Meanwhile, the 22-year-old Eaves reached the High-A level last year, putting up a .248/.308/.387 slash in his 575 plate appearances. He also stole 21 bases on the year. Eaves was a 16th round pick in the 2012 draft.
Quick Hits: PEDs, Computer Breach, Tanking, Extensions
Major league baseball will work with the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) in its investigation of PED allegations arising from a recent Al Jazeera report, ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn reports. Several players were implicated in that report, including Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies. “We’ve had discussions with USADA and are hopeful that together we can make progress in this investigation,” said the league’s chief legal officer, Dan Halem. As Quinn explains, it’s an unprecedented level of interaction between the league and the agency. The NFL, on the other hand, won’t be participating in the arrangement.
Here are some more notes of general interest from around the game:
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that commissioner Rob Manfred must not show any favoritism towards the Cardinals and owner Bill DeWitt in assessing whether and how to issue penalties arising from the improper accessing of the Astros‘ computer systems by former Cards scouting director Chris Correa. (For the latest information on that, read here and here.) Manfred and DeWitt enjoy a good relationship, as the commissioner himself made clear in comments to Rosenthal. But the top league official also left no room for interpretation as to his intentions, telling FOX Sports: “I think what the owners expect me to do — regardless of what my relationship [with an owner] may or may not be personally — is do the right thing by the institution. That’s what I intend to do when I have all the facts about the Houston-St. Louis thing.”
- There’s been some debate recently about the subject of “tanking,” and both Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and Buster Olney of ESPN.com weighed in on it yesterday. Cameron argues that there aren’t strong enough incentives for MLB teams to lose on purpose in pursuit of better positions for amateur talent. Olney counters that some talent evaluators in the game see a real and growing problem. Manfred’s own recent take on the matter is well worth consideration as well.
- ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden takes a crack (Insider link) at valuing some possible extensions of top young players around the game. He has Bryce Harper at just over $400MM, which is also the rough price range that MLBTR’s Steve Adams and MLBTR’s readers have previously landed at. It’s an interesting thought experiment, and is well worth a read. I would take some issue, however, with the spread between his $100MM+ valuations on players like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor and his approximately seven-year, $70MM estimates for the two Red Sox players on the list, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.
- Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper offers an interesting and sometimes sobering look at some of the very best prospects that never made it to the major leagues.
Orioles Were In On Cespedes, Made Five-Year Offer
The Orioles were a third team in on outfielder Yoenis Cespedes late last week, joining the Nationals and Mets, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. Baltimore had a five-year offer on the table, says Heyman, but it was obviously turned down.
It appears, then, that Cespedes rejected two separate five-year concepts to go back to the Mets for three years and $75, with an opt-out after the first season. But it hasn’t been reported what kind of guarantee and payout structure was involved in the O’s offer. And it’s important to bear in mind that recent reporting suggests the Nationals’ five-year deal had extensive deferrals that put a huge dent in its real value.
Aside from the historical interest, this news is chiefly relevant because of what it says about the Orioles’ willingness and capacity to keep spending. Expectations were that the club would not be involved on Cespedes — at least, not to that level — after promising $161MM (with major deferrals) to slugger Chris Davis. In all likelihood, the Cuban star would have followed Davis in topping the team’s prior record for largest guarantee.
Looking ahead, Baltimore still has good reason to pursue another outfielder and at least one additional starter. It seems that the club will have at least the possibility of deploying some rather significant resources to fill those needs. There are options on hand, of course, and it could be that Cespedes was a somewhat unique target. But the news suggests that the O’s have the means to participate in the markets for top remaining players such as Dexter Fowler, Austin Jackson, and Yovani Gallardo.
There are also some trade possibilities that could be opened up by the presence of salary space. Hypothetical trade targets like Carlos Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Jay Bruce, or even Ryan Braun could, in theory, be made to fit from a payroll perspective. Likewise, pricier arms — say, Tyson Ross or C.J. Wilson — could be considered under various scenarios. (The point here is not to say any of these particular players are being or should be pursued, but rather to provide examples of the range of conceivable options.)
Longer-term payroll developments are an interesting element of the story, too. Baltimore not only added Davis, but also took on a significant obligations this winter to backstop Matt Wieters (via the qualifying offer) and reliever Darren O’Day. The club’s estimated Opening Day spending already tops last year’s ~$118MM mark, and that’s before accounting for the still-undetermined salaries of Zach Britton and Brian Matusz, which figures to cost another $10MM and change. Needless to say, whatever the offer, adding Cespedes would have pushed the payroll well outside the team’s prior spending bounds.
As noted, it’s entirely unclear whether Baltimore will pursue other ways of re-deploying the funds that might have gone to Cespedes. Indeed, it’s not impossible to think that adding him might have required the team to shed some other salary. Regardless, the possibility of significant additional payroll space is intriguing to consider moving forward.
Angels Avoid Arbitration With Kole Calhoun
While the majority of the 156 players that filed for salary arbitration last week have agreed to terms with their teams, either on a one-year deal for 2016 or on an extension, the cases of more than 20 players remain unresolved. You can track the status of each case using MLBTR’s 2016 Arbitration Tracker, and we’ll keep track of all of today’s smaller deals to avoid arbitration in this post (all referenced projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…
- The Angels and right fielder Kole Calhoun have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $3.4MM, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Calhoun, whom Swartz projected to earn $3.6MM, had filed for a $3.9MM salary, while the team had countered with a considerably lower $2.35MM sum. His eventual salary comes in a good bit north of the $3.125MM midpoint between those two sums. The 28-year-old Calhoun qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player by the narrowest of margins this offseason, as he finished the year with two years, 130 days of service time, meaning he landed precisely on the cutoff. As such, this will mark the first seven-figure salary of his young career. However, if the quietly solid outfielder continues at his current trajectory, there will be plenty more to come. Over the past two seasons, Calhoun has batted .263/.316/.435 with 43 home runs and high-quality defense in right field, resulting in his first Gold Glove Award in 2015. With Calhoun’s case now resolved, the Halos have avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players.
Nationals Sign Bronson Arroyo To Minor League Deal
9:41pm: Sheldon tweets that Arroyo will receive a $2MM base salary if he makes the Major League roster. Arroyo’s contract is heavily incentive-laden, as one would expect, and he can earn $6MM worth of incentives (topping out at 32 starts made), bringing the maximum potential value of the contract to $8MM.
9:34pm: The Nationals announced that they have signed Bronson Arroyo to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. Yesterday, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reported that the veteran right-hander had received a minor league contract offer from the Nats but was drawing interest from four other teams, including the Reds. The soon-to-be 39-year-old is represented by Turn 2 Sports Management.
Arroyo figures to serve as a depth option for the Nationals, who currently project to have a top three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez in their rotation. Behind that strong trio is young right-hander Joe Ross, who looked impressive in his Major League debut in 2015, and right-hander Tanner Roark, who had an outstanding 2014 campaign before losing his rotation slot when the Nats made a surprising play for Scherzer last winter. Arroyo could allow the team to either give Ross some additional time at Triple-A — though he didn’t look like a pitcher who needed considerably more development time — or to keep Roark in the bullpen, if it’s decided that relief work is his best role. However, the Nats may very well elect to use Yusmeiro Petit in Roark’s previously occupied swingman role.
Suffice it to say, it is not immediately clear how Arroyo fits into the picture, but there are many options in the event that he makes the team out of Spring Training. By agreeing to terms with the Nationals, Arroyo will be reunited with Dusty Baker, who served as the Reds’ manager for six of Arroyo’s eight seasons in Cincinnati.
With the Reds, Arroyo established himself as one of baseball’s most durable workhorses, averaging 211 innings per season from 2006-13 and posting a 4.05 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 40. percent ground-ball rate. Arroyo cleared 200 innings in every season with the Reds with the exception of 2011, when he finished with 199 frames pitched on the year. However, all of the innings eventually caught up to the right-hander, who signed a two-year, $23.5MM contract with the Diamondbacks in the 2013-14 offseason but suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament just 86 innings into that deal. Arroyo underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2014 and missed the entirety of the 2015 season as he recovered. Along the way, his contract was traded to the Braves and eventually the Dodgers, though Arroyo never suited up for either club. It’s unclear what type of mileage can be expected out of his arm in 2016, though he’ll open the year more than 21 months removed from his surgery, giving him more recovery time than the traditional Tommy John patient.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported an agreement was in place (via Twitter).
Mets Re-Sign Yoenis Cespedes
While he might have originally been acquired as a rental piece at the non-waiver trade deadline, Yoenis Cespedes is staying with the Mets, who announced a three-year deal with the slugging outfielder on Tuesday evening. Cespedes will reportedly be guaranteed $75MM, though he can also opt out after the first season, at which point he’ll have earned $27.5MM on the front-loaded contract. He’ll reportedly earn $23.75MM in both 2017 and 2018 if he does not opt out, and the new deal is also said to include a full no-trade clause.
While a return to the Mets has always seemed plausible, it’s also appeared at times to be a long shot. That’s due in large part to the fact that Cespedes seemed destined to land a much greater, longer-term commitment than Sandy Alderson and co. were willing and able to make.
With Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson at the corners, and Juan Lagares and recent addition Alejandro De Aza available up the middle, there wasn’t a need, strictly speaking. But Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement opened a roster spot and some capital, and the Mets stayed in position as the winter progressed. The team’s payroll will approach the $140MM mark with Cespedes in tow, but the somewhat surprising World Series run last year and an impressive crop of young pitchers certainly justified such an advance.
It remains to be seen what New York will do in crafting an outfield alignment. A trade of Lagares makes some sense at first glance, though it isn’t clear what they’d be looking for in return, and selling low isn’t appealing either. Then there’s the fact that the gifted fielder might be of importance not only down the line, but also in 2016. Granderson could surely stand to avoid left-handed pitching, while Conforto is still somewhat unproven despite an impressive debut. And, Cespedes did not look terribly comfortable in center field last year, so some late-game shifting could be in order at times.
Any way you cut it, the signing looks to represent a major coup for the Mets, who’ll look to defend their NL East title with the man who helped lead them there in the first place. Cespedes, 30, put up a huge .287/.337/.604 slash down the stretch after coming to New York in a deadline deal that sent minor league right-handers Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa back to the Tigers. Although Cespedes dealt with some injuries and wasn’t a major force in the postseason, there’s no question of the impact he made on the Mets last year.
Looking forward, the Mets will hope that Cespedes can continue to provide top-notch overall value. Though he’s not much of an on-base threat, he’s made huge contributions with his power stroke and high-quality corner outfield defense. To be sure, Cespedes was more solid than great in the two preceding seasons his elite 2015 campaign. But with the chance to head back to the open market after the season, he’ll surely have all the incentive necessary to fuel a repeat performance, and the downside here is far less worrisome than those found in many player option scenarios. Plus, New York stands to gain a draft pick through the qualifying offer system if Cespedes triggers his opt-out clause.
The concept also makes good sense as a fall-back for the Roc Nation Sports client. It certainly carries a high-end annual salary, with the larger portion due up front, though the term does fall well shy of expectations. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had pegged his earning capacity at $140MM over six years entering the winter. It appeared he’d have a good chance of reaching it after Jason Heyward inked a monster, opt-out-laden $184MM deal with the Cubs and Justin Upton went for six years and $132.75MM to the Tigers.
While the overall guarantee pales in comparison to those contracts, Cespedes adds an enormous amount of upside through his own contract. The early opt-out provision means that he’ll have a chance to re-enter the market in just one year’s time in search of yet another big payday. The structure ultimately falls into what we’ve discussed here quite a bit in recent weeks (both in the MLBTR Newsletter and on the MLBTR Podcast), as a supercharged short-term deal that includes a significant guarantee but cabins the team’s risk and leaves plenty of earning potential for the player.
Barring a catastrophe in 2016, it’s hard to imagine that Cespedes won’t hit free agency again next year. There’s an excellent chance he’ll be the top outfielder available next winter in a much less robust market, and he won’t be so old that he won’t be able to cash in.
Cespedes was said to have interest from the White Sox on a three-year deal, though there was no mention of a first-year opt-out in those reports. The Orioles had interest in the five-year, $90MM range before ultimately agreeing to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis. The division-rival Nationals appeared to be the strongest competition in the end, but their reported five-year, $110MM offer (which contained an opt-out provision after the 2017 season) reportedly came with 10 years of heavily deferred payments, thereby reducing the present-day value of the contract to about $77MM.
Ultimately, with what’s been reported thus far, it isn’t surprising that Cespedes chose to take this offer to return to the bright lights of New York. And while there’s plenty of work yet to be done, the Mets will enter the coming season as a popular choice to challenge once again for a trip to the World Series.
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter) first said a deal was close. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) reported the financial details. Jon Heyman first said a deal was done (Twitter links). Heyman later tweeted the year-to-year breakdown of the deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.