Twelve rookies have drawn attention as potential impact players in 2017, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes in his latest notes column. Several baseball people give their input on the players, ranging from Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi to “rookie” (though a longtime veteran of Cuban baseball) Astros first baseman Yulieski Gurriel. Here’s some hot stove news from Cafardo…
- The Royals have interest in veteran right-hander Doug Fister. Kansas City is known to be looking for rotation help since the tragic death of Yordano Ventura. Fister (who celebrates his 33rd birthday today) posted a 4.64 ERA, 5.74 K/9 and 1.85 K/BB rate in 180 1/3 innings with the Astros last season. The Padres, Marlins, Pirates and Mariners have all been linked to Fister at various times this winter, though several of those clubs have made other additions to their rotation and may no longer have interest.
- The Royals have several notable players hitting free agency next winter, and “the feeling is the Royals will re-sign at least one of their key hitters, likely Eric Hosmer,” Cafardo writes. Hosmer is a somewhat surprising name to potentially be staying put given that he is represented by Scott Boras, who would usually put a price tag on his client that would be out of reach for the mid-market Royals. Then again, Cafardo also notes that while Kansas City has the pieces to be a contender this season, “if they’re out of the hunt at the trade deadline…look for a major fire sale.” To tie those two items together, the Royals could free up money to re-sign Hosmer if they dealt some other pricey contracts. (One would think Hosmer would also want to be assured that the Royals’ deadline deals were made with an eye towards reloading for 2018 or 2019.) K.C. already locked up one long-term piece by signing Danny Duffy to a five-year extension last month.
- Jason Hammel would also be a fit in Kansas City but Fister would seem to have a much lower price tag at this point, as “Hammel believes he should receive at least a three-year deal.” Given the lack of clarity in Hammel’s market this winter, it would be quite surprising to see a team make that long a commitment to the right-hander, who is entering his age-34 season.
- The Mariners were linked to Hammel earlier this winter, and Cafardo reports that Seattle offered Hammel a one-year deal with a $10MM option for 2018. This offer came “very early” in the free agency process and no longer appears to be on the table. The M’s have since acquired Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly, so they no longer seem like candidates for Hammel’s services.
- Shane Victorino recently underwent minor surgery to remove a cyst under his arm, which has put the veteran outfielder’s plans to pursue a comeback attempt via a minor league contract “on hold.” Cafardo reported three weeks ago that a team had offered Victorino a contract but he hadn’t yet informed his agent whether or not to accept.
Very glad we didn’t end up getting Hammel
What team are you talking about?
Did you read the article?
Didn’t answer the question
Hosmer should be the LAST guy the Royals keep to build around. Mediocre first basemen are a dime a dozen and Hosmer is gonna want big money. He had a negative fWAR last year! Build around Moustakas and/or Cain who at least give you above average defense at premium positions whether or not they hit. Let Hosmer and Escobar walk.
I don’t think the royals keep both Hosmer and Moustakas. be shocked if Hosmer is playing with st.louis in 2018
Yeah I just don’t get the hype that hosmer has gotten during his career. At best, he’s been a 3 win player, at worst he’s been replacement level, but if you ask a lot of traditional fans, he’s a superstar. The guy is just overrated, and a jerk to boot
As a Royals fan and having attended many royals games at Kauffman and on the road, I seen Hosmer a lot and even had a few interactions with him. I totally agree Hoz is vastly overrated. He is at best an average hitter and shows a little flash on defense but isn’t all that great. The Royals can easily replace his defense and more easily replace and improve on his offense (or lack thereof). I do think it would be a hit to the team clubhouse-wise and he is a fan favorite. I have no idea why you think he’s a jerk because that’s NEVER been an issue I’ve ever seen with him. Hoz gets a lot of negative reactions because he’s such a positive guy and comes off as flashy.
I’m mainly referring to the time when he blew up at eno Sarris of fangraphs (a person I very much respect) for interviewing him about walk rates and other less traditional stats. I’m being too harsh, I guess, judging him on a single interaction
Hosmer was justified in blowing off Fangraphs less traditional stats. They had the Royals rated as sub .500 in both 2014 and 2015 when they went to the WS. After going to game 7 in 2014, fangraphs stated KC’s war did not support success in 2015 and predicted a 74 win season. Even Bill James has stated that war fails to explain the “lineup effect” that certain hitters have both positive and negative; as well as the “staff effect” that certain pitchers have both + &-. The latest fangraghs war predictions have the LAD’s winning more games than the Cubs. Someone should inform Sarris that there is more to a winning team than walk rates.
I don’t think sarris ever claimed that walk rates and other less traditional stats are the end-all indicator of success. Projection systems aren’t perfect and just because you don’t agree with them and they were wrong for one team doesn’t discount the fact that they are correct a lot more often than they are incorrect. For every 2014/15 royals there are 100 projections that are correct to within 5%
And a thousand that are way off. If you make the same projections just using traditional stats there would be 100 within 5%. Even run differencial is over rated because the good teams often run up the score against the worst teams bad pitchers.
“I disagree with these projections and therefore they’re wrong”
-jmi1950
Team Projections that fangraphs got wrong by >5% last season:
Rangers
Rays
Phillies
The only team that hey projected to be out of contention and ended up in contention and vice versa was the rangers
If that is meant to be a quote from me you couldn’t be further from what I said. The point is no matter what stats you use projections are just that. You do not know Eric Hosmer but you felt you could call him a jerk because he blew off a stat geek who you respect. You do not know me but you felt it was alright to misquote me. It is now clear that the problem is with you.
“blew off a stat geek” – “the problem is you”
Gotcha…
You do know those “stat geeks” make up the majority of people running/making decisions for mlb teams now, right?
When someone cusses out someone else for trying to do their job I think it’s pretty fair to consider it a jerk move. If eno sarris cussed out a waiter at a restaurant for asking for his order I’d think he’s a jerk too.
Besides the Phillies, Rangers, & Rays Fangraphs had the Angels 2d in the west and the Orioles last in the East. That’s at least 5 out of 30 teams that they missed by more than 10%. So your statement that they get 100 right for every one they get wrong is way off. As for stat geeks running teams Bill James the original stat advisor (he has been with the Red Sox for many yrs.) has never claimed he runs the team and would never go down on the field and demean a player. Especially one on back to back AL Champs & WS winner that the advanced stats predicted would have no chance to finish above .500. What James continues to work on is a way to explain why sometimes the stats do not predict the result. James said as much to Brian Kenny on a live show and Kenny — who believes stats explain all — was left speechless.
I honestly have no idea where you’re getting the projection that KC was going to win 74 games in 2015, they pegged them for an 81-81 finish, which is still off, but not by 20 games like you say they were. Also, I believe that you’re looking at the 2017 projection, because I looked pretty hard at the projected records for every team in 2016 and the phillies rays and rangers were the only ones to vary more than 8 wins (which is 5% of 162)
That’s the problem with fangraphs. Like hedge fund mangers they dress up their numbers to look better. They first predicted 74, then later 78. I don’t doubt they now show it at 81. The point is they have no role in confronting players about why the player is not very good if you use a single advanced stat, especially after you have demeaned his entire team as not WS worthy AFTER they won the WS. We all know that players aren’t truthful when they say “I don’t read that s–t” Fangraphs compresses everything towards the middle so that they are less “off”. Look at their current site. Most wins 95 least wins 66. It is hard to miss by more than 8 wins when you compress everyone near to .500. Fangraphs is just one tool. As Bill James said: it’s not what the stats explain but what they don’t explain that separates the winners from the losers.
By the way to be within 5% that is 4 games up or down. For example the LAD ‘s must finish with between 99 and 91 wins an 8 game range around their 95 game prediction for it to be within 5%. You don’t get to see which direction you missed before setting your 8 game range.
Signing Cain would be best, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t priced out. Agreed that Hosmer would be the worst one to extend.
Agreed. Rols1026 must be a Royals fan. Esky and Hoz can be improved upon without much effort. Resign moose and/or Cain. They have real value
Not a Royals fan just a fan of baseball in general. I just think Kansas City is at a fascinating point in their history right now with so many impending free agents.
Correct analysis
Relax about Hosmer being the major target to re-sign. It’s Cafardo, after all. He’s usually blowing hot air, like Nightengale with the Quintana rumors.
All these rumors have a basis in fact. The problem is reporters like Cafardo & Nightengale are often being “played” by both agents and team reps so as to affect the market.
I believe you just contradicted yourself. Teams that play reporters aren’t promoting facts, just agendas. And some reporters, like the ones we mentioned, play us to get clicks. Look at all the traffic over the baseless Quintana rumors that Nightingale planted.
The point is all Nightengale can report is what he is told. Let’s face it most of what appears on these pages doesn’t come to pass. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t discussed. It also doesn’t mean that some source isn’t using a reporter to promote an agenda. Usually it is a little of both because you can not promote an agenda unless there is some factual basis. Most people believe that one of these days Quintana will be traded so all rumors about him have some basis in fact.
LoCain is easily my favorite player on the team, but I think he’s going to get more money than he’s worth when he’s looking for a new contract. And definitely more than Glass wants to spend. He’s injury prone, and he’s already lost a step, which is why they’ve talked about having him spend time in RF this year to keep him healthier. As big a fan of him as I am, I’d be afraid of what the last couple years of a 5 year deal would look like with him in the field, where they’ll already have an aging Gordo as well. But yeah, Hosmer isn’t worth the money Boras is going to milk out of some dumb team.
I agree about Hosmer. He is great defensively, but he is overrated when it comes to his bad. He hit .221 after the all-star break last year. A great player doesn’t do that….especially one that is wanting 8-10 year contract at $20M per year. I would rather keep Moose, and Moose would cost half the price of Hosmer.
He has negative defensive value. Yost even admits it….he scoops and that’s it. He’s like 3.2 WAR for his career and 3 of that came in 2014. He’s James Loney at best. Unless he does something the Royals could replace him with almost anyone and have same value.
I’d rather trade both, because they have dozier coming up who looks decent and retool and spend in the insane free agent class coming up
The Nick Cafardo link is a great read. At the end of the piece he also posted a chart/graph of the longest consecutive winning and losing seasons in MLB history
The “Go-Go” White Sox had the 4th longest run in MLB history from 1951-1967. Unfortunately, it was in an era when each league champ were the only playoff qualifiers, directly heading to the World Series at the conclusion of the regular season. The White Sox run also happened to overlap the longest winning season streak in MLB history, the 39-year run by the Yankees from 1926-1964. The White Sox only made the postseason once during their streak, winning the A.L. pennant in 1959 before losing to the Dodgers in the World Series. Meanwhile, the Yankees won 19 World Series titles in their 39-year run.
Damn Yankees! lol
Can you take me high enough?
Fister is a smart pick up. Ground ball pitcher in a big park, and can also eat up a lot of innings out of the pen, if put there. Plus price is right for small market KC.
Robert Gsellman will make a bigger impact than Lucas Giolito.
Robert Gsellman will almost certainly have a bigger impact with the Mets in 2017 than Lucas Giolito will have with a rebuilding White Sox team.
Gsellman is already penciled into the Mets rotation as their 5th starter and would move up the rankings with any continuing health issues to those ahead of him. Giolito is not listed in the White Sox likely opening day rotation and will most certainly begin the season at AAA Charlotte, at least until one of their veteran starters is traded.
I wondering if Boras has lost his touch. Many of the ‘household’ names he represents are signing later and later into the offseason. If I’m Wieters (which I get that I’m not), I’d be furious at how poorly Boras has misread his market. This seems to have happened every offseason for the past 3-4 years. It seems that front offices have figured out that his tactics are just that and are going more and more off of advanced analytics.
Boras plays a different game than most of the other agents. He likes to shoot for the moon. For the top tier he very often succeeds, and that’s why he’s hired. Sometimes that approach, when the product is flawed/older, really fizzes out when the ask is way beyond the real demand.. Stephen Drew was a good example after 2013, as was Johnny Damon after the 2009 season. Wieters could be the next.
The chasm between Hosmer as the perceived superstar, and his actual displayed baseball skill is as wide as any player I’ve ever seen in the modern stat era.
Yeah, downvote the obvious truth….like a downvote means crap.
“Mid-market Royals” Lol. If Royals are mid-market, what is a small market?
Green Bay Packers?