FEB. 21: Chicago would trade Robertson and possibly eat some of his salary if the Nationals were to give up catcher Pedro Severino, according to Phil Rogers of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both MLB.com and Baseball America rank the 23-year-old Severino as one of the Nats’ top 10 prospects. As written below, Washington isn’t eager to deal more young talent; unsurprisingly, then, it would rather move Derek Norris than Severino, per Rogers.
FEB. 12: The White Sox and Nationals seemed to be closing in on a trade that would’ve sent David Robertson to Washington last week, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Jose L. Ortiz report. According to a Nats official, however, “the two sides have hit a stalemate and no trade is imminent.” The Sox, for their part, continue to feel “optimistic” that a trade will be finalized.
It isn’t known what caused this holdup in talks, though earlier this week, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported that Nationals ownership didn’t want to absorb the $25MM owed to Robertson over the next two seasons, nor did the front office want to give up quality minor leaguers. The Nats already surrendered several top prospects to the White Sox earlier this offseason as part of the trade that brought Adam Eaton to Washington; the Nats tried to include Robertson along with Eaton as part of that trade package but were unsuccessful.
On the surface, one could argue that the White Sox could be asking for too much in demanding that the Nationals (or other suitors for Robertson) pay a big price in both prospects and in taking on the closer’s entire contract. That said, Chicago has already scored a massive influx of young talent in the Eaton trade and in dealing Chris Sale to the Red Sox — Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Michael Kopech are all ranked within the top 32 on Baseball America’s 2017 listing of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Between these deals and the asking price for Jose Quintana, White Sox GM Rick Hahn has clearly put a premium on his top trade chips as part of his effort to bring a “critical mass” of talent into Chicago’s organization.
Unless Robertson gets injured or has a dip in form, the Sox can also bide their time and wait until the trade deadline to find a suitable return for the closer. Given the Nationals’ uncertainty at the back of their bullpen, Washington may not have that luxury. As Nightengale and Ortiz point out, however, the Nats could make do with Blake Treinen or Shawn Kelley as closer for now and then pursue another ninth-inning option later in the season, as they did in acquiring Mark Melancon from the Pirates at last summer’s deadline.
a1544
What do they expect to get for a declining reliever. This is getting ridiculous
biasisrelitive
exactly I think he’s basically being paid what his value is there is not that much serplus.
WhyNotQuestionmark
Serpluses are swell.
SuperSinker
So eat a bunch of the money and get a return. Voila, surplus value created.
bencole
I’m a Cubs fan, so I hate the Sox, but I understand where they’re coming from. They just don’t need to move him, and won’t unless they get something they value. When you all say it’s ridiculous, I just don’t understand it. Are you Nats fans? Even if there’s no surplus value, which I agree there’s not much, the Sox aren’t motivated to deal him just to deal him. The Sox are looking to gain surplus value for him or wait until they do. That’s what I would do to. They simply don’t need the Nats as a trade partner, and the Nats really need the Sox right now. If I’m the Sox I’d take this all the way to the trade deadline the last year if his deal if I had to. I’m not moving him unless it makes me better in the future.
jimmyb
Ask mark melancon. Clearly even remotely dependable relievers have extreme value.
chesteraarthur
Mark Melancon was much better than drob last year and isn’t showing the same negative trend as drob.
Priggs89
Is 1 year a “trend”? His 2015 numbers (outside of ERA) were pretty solid… He had a 2.52 FIP, which was lower than the previous 2 years, and he had his lowest career WHIP at .932 and K/BB at 6.62.
chesteraarthur
his ks have been declining (yes a trend). His bb has spiked back up after 2015 saw him reduce them significantly. I guess that is more regression to the mean with his bb% than it is a trend.
Priggs89
Except for the fact that outside of last year, which was admittedly a down year, his K’s haven’t really been on the decline… His K/9 from 2011-2015 have been 13.5, 12.0, 10.4, 13.4, and 12.2. Pretty much exactly in line with what should be expected from him…
And his BB spiked SIGNIFICANTLY higher last year, not just a “regression to the mean,” unless you mean pre-2012 is his “mean.” Last time he had a number that high was in 2011. After 2011, he has been down to 2.8, 2.4, 3.2 and 1.8 per 9. He has consistently been 4+ SO/W guy since 2012 until last year when he dropped back down to 2.34.
Aaron Sapoznik
Mark Melancon and David Robertson are one month apart in age and also have similar career numbers, especially factoring in the leagues in which they have pitched. Robertson has pitched exclusively in the A.L. while Melancon has mostly toiled in the N.L. When Melancon did pitch briefly in the A.L. he was very pedestrian with the Yankees at the onset of his career and sucked as a Red Sox in 2012. Just saying….
chesteraarthur
last 3 years his ks have declined. Those 3 years are the most relevant, especially for a 31 year old reliever. Yes, that is a trend.
Why are you using pre 2012 for his k trend but designating it as some sort of outlying condition for his walks?
regression to the mean as in his bbs are trending more towards his true talent bb. yes, they went a little more in the one direction like they had the previous year in the opposite.
slimjones92
chesteraarthur I think you should re-read Priggs89’s last comment.
jdgoat
AL and NL doesn’t matter for relievers. They don’t face pitchers unlike the starters
Priggs89
I went back pre-2012 for his K trend because that was the last (and only) other time his K’s have been in that 13.5 range. If you want to say that he’s on a downward trend because of one year out of the last 4 where his K’s jumped up to an unsustainable level, go for it. I understand the last 3 years are more relevant, but if you look at the 2 before that, you’ll get a better picture of where his K’s should realistically be. 2015 was his best season in a while by most measurements. If you don’t see that and want to pick apart the couple things that were slightly down, that’s on you. Go ahead and use his ERA next time. That should help.
In regards to walks, I stopped at 2012 because clearly something changed after the 2011 season. In his first 4 years, his BB/9 were 4.5, 4.7, 4.8, and 4.7. The 4 years after that he dropped to 2.8, 2.4, 3.2, and 1.8. Unless you think he reverted back to his mean from 5 years ago, last year was clearly an outlier. He’s pretty obviously no longer that 4+ BB/9 pitcher.
I already know you don’t like Robertson from other threads, so there’s likely no convincing you that he isn’t a horrible pitcher all of a sudden. People, like you, can either assume the worst and believe he’s bad and getting worse, or they can believe that he pitched through injury pretty much all last year that helped lead to his down year, which wasn’t part of a trend because 2015 was a better year than his previous couple years.
If the Nats have the same beliefs as you, then they should wait until later in the year to make a move. That way they can see what they have and see if Robertson bounces back before pulling the trigger on a deal. But in that case, they run the risk of Robertson bouncing back to form AND having other contenders interested. If that happens, the prospect price will be higher than it is now, and the Sox won’t be eating very much money. If they believe that last year was a down year affected by injury and that he’ll bounce back to normal form, they’ll likely be better off making a deal now. Right now, Robertson’s price (prospect-wise) is likely the lowest it will be all year, assuming he doesn’t decline (and if he does, they wouldn’t want him anyways), and they can likely get the Sox to eat a significant amount of the salary with a good prospect going the other way.
And no, I don’t think the Nats would even consider guys like Robles or Fedde. They didn’t even want to move Robles in the Eaton deal. He’s going to stick around for when Harper leaves IMO. As I’ve said before, Soto is the guy I’d be after if I was Hahn. Eat whatever amount of the contract you have to in order to get that done, and I’d be happy, even without extra pieces coming back.
NellieFox
The do face the DH though
pullhitter445
What’s ridiculous about it? If he’s declining why do you want him so bad that your upset it hasn’t happened yet? Robertson was injured last year and a team needing a quality back end option will benefit surrendering a couple of prospects with the white sox paying some of roberstons contract to offset the players coming to the white sox.
pd14athletics
Have you seen what relievers got paid this offseason? The 3rd highest reliever contract handed out this offseason blew away the previous highest reliever contract. Robertson’s contract looks mighty appealing, to a lot of teams. Now I understand teams being hesitant to take it all on plus deal premium talent, but Hahn has done well in hauling prospects for Sale and Eaton so I don’t see why he should let up now. I can easily see Quintana and Robertson bringing back more at the deadline versus now, and he’d be selling low on Abreu with the 1B/DH FA market where it is. I think Hahn has had a great offseason. I also think the White Sox got the greater future player in the Sale deal in Moncada over Benintendi
chesteraarthur
the 3rd best reliever, melancon, was better significantly better than drob is.
SuperSinker
I can just as easily see Quintana/Robertson’s values being lower 5 months from now. Pitchers are volatile, even previously dependable ones.
And I for one would have preferred Benintendi all things being equal.
blovy8
Good point. By July, he could be a setup guy for Nate Jones.
pd14athletics
Melancon significantly better? Not seeing that. Certainly not seeing the extra 2 years and 37 million better. Because that contract difference definitely is significant.
pd14athletics
Sure that is true, but that logic can be applied up and down a roster and down into the minors. Any pitchers arm can go out at any point, most teams don’t just go out and deal their arms for that reason. White Sox didn’t deal Sale because they were scared he’d get hurt or wouldn’t perform this year, they dealt him because they got an awesome package in return.
I’m not surprised you’d prefer Benintendi, he is the top overall. I’d be quite happy to have either of them on my team. But I do think Moncada will be better.
chesteraarthur
If you aren’t seeing how Melancon was significantly better than Robertson last year, that’s on you.
slimjones92
Wow, what an impressive argument…
Tyler 20
Compelling points you posted to prove your arguement
chopper2hopper
He’s a troll. Ignore this dude
pd14athletics
Just checking in on Robertson compared to Melancon… you really nailed that one.
bradthebluefish
Great analysis! Totally agree. Benintendi might be better than Moncada, we’ll see, but the big difference is Moncada doesn’t have to come up this year. Benintendi was essentially a start-now player (though he has options). With the White Sox rebuilding, no need to start the service clock. Best to have the #2 prospect of the year stay in the minors.
justinept
This article makes it seem that Bats neither want to give up a quality prospect nor Py the entirety of his deal. If that’s the case, then why should the Sox trade him?
hojostache
They shouldn’t. WAS is most likely not willing to take on money, as they are still handcuffed bc of their TV deal. There is a reason why they have backloaded so many recent contracts. If they don’t take on $, then they will need to give up prospects, and they don’t seem too keep on that option either. They most likely are going with an internal option or maybe a re-tread if/when someone gets cut loose before opening day.
ray_derek
Or they could just keep him and let him close. It’s not like they have to trade him…
CaliWhiteSoxFan
Hahn has his foot on the gas pedal, I just hope he knows when to let up a bit because D-Rob isn’t what he used to be. Pay half or most of the salary, get some solid guys in return, and keep it moving.
floyd30
Robertson will have a much better year with that knee cleared out. Washington should make a move on this.
pplama
Ventura also misused him and he was throwing to the 2 worst C’s in baseball with a bottom 5 defense behind him.
chesteraarthur
Re bad defense: His era was actually better than his fip
pplama
Because he didn’t have the bottom 2 inches of the strike zone.
FIP is BB’s, K’s, and HR’s.
There’s plenty of evidence of how bad the Sox D was last year.
SuperSinker
FIP strips away defence, but I do grant your point of how terrible receivers can affect outcomes.
jakem59
Their catchers were indeed awful pitch framers but the White Sox defense wasn’t that bad. 16th in overall defensive value.
pplama
Interesting how depending on which team you are a fan of you can read the rumors as the other team’s FO being unreasonable.
Obviously Albies and Fedde are off the table. However, If the Sox eat around $10mil, Soto and Watson or Kieboom and Severino seems like a fair deal.
floyd30
I’d agree with that. Sox need to eat some contract to make the return better.
pplama
Sorry, brain cramp. Robles, not Albies.
chesteraarthur
So you’re a sox fan
justinept
Sounds like the Nats want to give up nothing AND have the Sox send money. If this was a salary dump, I get it. But the Sox don’t need to dump salary.
Frank Richard
I get that the top prospects the Nats have left should be off the table, but DRob is still a serviceable closer and if the White Sox are willing to eat more money on his deal then a decent prospect should be the asking price. There has been a premium put on closers so the market value is high.
blovy8
They would have been better off just paying 7 for Holland and kept their prospects than dealing a guy AND paying more.
pullhitter445
Nationals have some quality position players with good bats. Here’s to hoping the white sox get two and send money along with Robertson to the Nats
hojostache
Absolutely agree about Holland may have nixed them even at the same/more money, which has happened to WAS already during this off-season.
Aaron Sapoznik
“Ken Rosenthal reported that Nationals ownership didn’t want to absorb the $25MM owed to Robertson over the next two seasons, nor did the front office want to give up quality minor leaguers.”
Is this the same ownership that was in the bidding for each of the 3 premium free agent closers earlier this offseason, the same relievers whose new contracts make David Robertson’s deal look almost look like a bargain? Robertson may not be in their class but guess who’s the most experienced closer that remains available at this late stage of the offseason.
That said, it seems only fair that the more salary the Nats ownership is willing to take on, the less assets their front office should have to part with. Conversely, the more dollars the White Sox are willing to absorb, the better the return in prospects (RHP Erick Fedde, SS Carter Kieboom and/or RHP Austin Voth?) or controllable rostered players (OF Michael Taylor and/or C Pedro Severino?) for their organization.
chesteraarthur
If he’s not in the same class as them, why are you using them as a comparison to value robertson’s contract? The top notch relievers are the ones who show the least volatility. I’m sure teams have caught on to this. That’s why chapman and jansen got paid as well as they did.
Robertson’s contract is pretty much market value for his current skill level. If he can get his control back and keep up his k and gb% next season, perhaps he can bring more at the deadline, but as it stands right now, he’s shown some concerning decline. Melancon was better than drob and he is getting paid 15.5/yr. for 4 Drob will be getting 12.5/yr for 2. That gives a pretty decent idea of what the value of Drob would be on the open market.
pplama
3 choices- A smaller haul for Robertson. A huge haul for Colome. Internal options at least until the deadline.
Zero chance the Sox to take a AAAA longshot prospect. Don’t need a salary dump. They get what they want for him now, or hope he’s worth more at some point over the next 1 1/2 years. If he isn’t, the Sox missed out on a lottery ticket. Big deal.
Nats aren’t in a position to lowball.
chesteraarthur
except there is a real chance that one of their two in house options are better or equal to robertson….
pplama
Then the Sox wait. Simple.
SuperSinker
And showcasing Nate Jones is definitely in their best interest. Plus clearing the lane for Burdi to start getting familiarized with high leverage situations has to be a priority too.
chesteraarthur
That’s only one half of what you said…”Nats aren’t in a position to lowball.”
Aaron Sapoznik
What’s the Nationals window for being strong World Series contenders?
Perhaps two years with Bryce Harper heading for free agency?
Do the Nats want to take the risk of auditioning young pitchers with little or no MLB closing experience in that time frame?
Clearly, they were keen on signing one of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon this offseason to answer those questions. Robertson looks like their best option currently and would cost a fraction of those salaries, even more with the White Sox chipping in some cash. Decisions,decisions….
Aaron Sapoznik
Alex Colome doesn’t appear to be available as a closer option at this point in time. He was reportedly being discussed earlier this offseason but the Rays position seems to have changed since those talks, with subsequent moves that indicate they plan on being a “contender” in a relatively weak A.L. East where only the Red Sox made significant upgrades.
Colome would cost significantly more in assets than Robertson because of his age (28), contract control (4 years, 3 as an arb eligible) and pure stuff. However, he also has some risk since he’s only closed for one season (2016) in his MLB career and not on a team that was contending. Robertson may not have closed with a “contending” White Sox club in his two years but he did a formidable job as the Yankee closer having to fill Mariano Rivera’s big shoes in 2014 and was also an effective setup man for “Mo” in the Bronx prior to that.
Grebek7
Deals got no legs anymore. Nats GM already had it nice y hard. He will only make a deal with Hahn now; in which Nats feel they win deal indefinitely. Especially if Sox aren’t eating a lot of Robbie’s $ /Go find us 2 more top 100 prospects Rick. Melky may be 1St to go
stymeedone
They must leave DRob in the closer role, or he won’t have any value at the deadline. Then they can worry about Jones.
Aaron Sapoznik
My comment stated that “Robertson may not be in their class but guess who’s the most experienced closer that remains available at this late stage of the offseason.”
Clearly he is not a dominating closer like Chapman and Jansen. His production and age would be more in line, hence comparable, to Melancon.
blovy8
There’s a certain level of player Rizzo can replace. They are not going to create worse depth someplace else for an average closer at that cost. There were rumblings that Gonzalez’s contact would have had to be moved if they spent on Jansen, thus creating a rotation issue. This is mostly about money, I would think. Robertson blows his share of saves, who says he’s better than a guy they already have? It would make more sense to get just a good reliever instead of a bunch of ok or talented but clearly flawed guys to compete for the middle spots. He could still be that, but the cost is too high for them, and the trade would probably have to be around some player the Sox like more than the Nats.
justinept
If they don’t want to pay him. And they don’t want to give up anything to acquire him, then this simply sounds like the Nats aren’t interested. And that’s fine if they aren’t. But when people suggest the Sox are being unreasonable, it just doesn’t add up given this information. You can’t really expect the Sox to just give the Nats Robertson for free while paying the majority of his contract.
Aaron Sapoznik
Can’t help but wonder if the outrighting of catcher Kevan Johnson to AAA by the White Sox on February 10th was related to an “imminent” trade being discussed for David Robertson in the last week or so.
It takes about 10 days for an outright to become official after the original DFA is asked in order to clear a spot off of a clubs 40-man reserve roster. This would have coincided with the reported trade talks with the Nationals concerning Robertson.
Before Smith was designated, the White Sox had a full contingent of players on their roster. If a potential trade involved two controllable MLB pieces from the Nationals, say OF Michael Taylor and C Pedro Severino, then the White Sox would have needed to clear one additional spot off their roster in order to facilitate the deal for Robertson.
Aaron Sapoznik
Btw-Don’t misconstrue my comment as an endorsement of the White Sox acquiring Taylor and Severino for Robertson in lieu of a prospect package. It was simply meant as a plausible reason for the club to DFA Kevan Smith two weeks before pitchers and catchers were reporting to spring training.
The Smith DFA would have occurred around February 1st with his outright finally being made official by the White Sox on the 10th of this month after he cleared waivers. This would have coincided with the reported trade talks involving Robertson and the National, a deal which may have been on the verge of becoming a reality back then before the alleged “stalemate”. When a player is designated for assignment his spot on the 40-man roster immediately becomes available before the club has a choice to make with his eventual outcome, be it a trade, release, waiver claim, outright or even reinstatement back to the list.
Clearly, the White Sox had no pressing need to DFA Smith on February 1st unless another move was imminent, be it acquiring a MLB player via a trade, a waiver claim or as a free agent. As of this post, Smith’s spot has yet to be filled by another acquisition. Just saying…
bearup
It is a shame. A deal between the two seems to make good sense. Not sure what the stalemate is, but hope they get it resolved for fans of both teams.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Papelbon is still available.
babyk79
I feel like DRob is Papelbon 2.0 for the Nats, formerly great closer who got paid a nice 4 year contract and who is now merely serviceable, honestly if you wind back the clock the Nats should have spent the money back when Andrew Miller was a FA and reaped the benefits of not having to trade for Papelbon one year, melancon the next, and then what Robertson this year, just buy a closer already
66TheNumberOfTheBest
I”m not sure why the Nationals didn’t just pay Melancon. Especially when they bid big on Jansen.
Bird in the hand, Rizzo.
blovy8
Nats offers seem to always be complicated by deferrals, and a fear of spending MASN money that may never come, Angelos could outlive Ted Lerner.
SuperSinker
I imagine they were aggressive on Melancon. Melancon is being very well compensated in a very attractive city/situation.
Connorsoxfan
I’m just waiting for all these deferrals to catch up to the Nats when they’re paying $20 million for guys not on their roster. Or they resign these guys and claim they should take less because of the deferred money they receive during the extension years.
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
I was actually just thinking about all the deferrals kicking in… If they don’t resolve the TV money situation, they could find themselves in a bind in a few years.
blovy8
2019 – that’s when they have to pay Scherzer and Strasburg 80 million before considering the other 23 active guys.
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
In a word, WOW!!! Thank you for the info.
Priggs89
So just to recap:
Washington wants Robertson but doesn’t want to pay his entire contract and doesn’t want to give up any quality prospects.
Chicago wants to trade Robertson but doesn’t want eat any money and wants top prospects.
So in the end, if a deal is done, Chicago will end up eating money and getting a decent prospect in return.
justinept
Who said the Sox were unwilling to toss money into the deal? The writer of the article uses that as a surface argument without any supporting info. Rosenthal’s report says only that the Nats neither want to give up anything of value nor pay the totality of the contract. It says nothing of what the White Sox are asking for in return or much money they’re willing to eat.
Priggs89
Logic says that. These are the “starting points” for each side. As I said, they’ll eventually meet in the middle if a deal is made. Everything else is just posturing by the front offices.
pplama
“Outside Pitch” suggested Voth and Kieboom. I think that’s a little steep.
chesteraarthur
How much money was CHW eating?
pplama
Nothing. They seem to think if the Sox ate salary, it would net them Fedde and Kieboom.
Again, I disagree and would hope Hahn isn’t asking for that much.
Thus my Soto/Watson suggestion.
Upside talent but far enough away that there’s risk for the Sox and the Nats have time to restock.
chesteraarthur
Yeah that’s not happening. I think your suggestion is far more inline with what is actually being discussed by these teams at this point. They’ve gone far enough into these talks (one would assume) where the Fedde types are knowingly not gonna happen.
blovy8
Too much unless it’s Spencer Kieboom and they’re taking on almost all of it
Weighed
Fedde and Robles for Robertson.
chesteraarthur
Is joke, yes?
Connorsoxfan
In your dreams! You could probably get one if the Sox payed all of Robertson, and maybe not Robles even then.
pooshemuptony
Robertson had 37 saves for a very bad team while pitching with a knee injury which has been repaired. It seems that Washington wants to have it both ways…have the White Sox pay some of the remaining money and not surrender any more of their better prospects. That is not how it works. There is absolutely no urgency for the White Sox to make this trade now. Consequently, they might be better off waiting until the July 31 trade deadline when there could be a bigger market for his services because contenders always try to add pitching.
blovy8
Depends on whether the Sox like one of the Nats players more than.they do. Again. It’s hard to believe they can really go back to the well on this one. The Nats can wait another month to see how things look, doesn’t seem like the guy is going anywhere.
pooshemuptony
True, but Washington has high hopes and the pressure is on them to make a move more than it is for the White Sox to do so. The White Sox hold all the cards because they already have enough arms to have a decent bullpen even without Robertson who has become a very valuable surplus piece. The key factor is how much money Washington wants the White Sox to cough up to help cover the final two years of Robertson’s contract. I’m not suggesting that they’re equal in ability, but over the past three seasons Robertson had more saves than Aroldis Chapman who recently signed a contract which dwarfs Robertson’s. I say wait until Washington (or some other team) becomes antsy enough to make a deal.
chesteraarthur
The pressure is not on them. Kelly and Treinen are both very good relievers. And using saves to quantify the quality of a reliever is misguided.
pooshemuptony
You are correct that saves are an inadequate way to measure a closer’s effectiveness, but I also clearly stated that I was not suggesting that Robertson and Chapman are equal in ability. Blown saves and WHIP possibly are a couple of better ways to accurately assess a closer’s real value.
What I actually wrote about the pressure to make a move is that it is on Washington more than it is on the White Sox.
1) Washington has made the postseason three times in the last five seasons and has yet to advance beyond the Division Series.
2) They also have a total of almost $440 million invested in Scherzer, Strasburg and Gonzalez.
3) Treinen and Kelley may be very good relievers, but I have heard and/or read many ex-relievers say that getting the last three outs of a game are the most difficult…that pitching in the ninth inning is not just another inning of relief work. The fact that they tried to acquire Robertson as part of the Eaton deal and now are making a second attempt to trade for him suggests that they are feeling the pressure to make this or some other trade. Perhaps it is because they are not quite ready to hand over the ninth inning to someone who has never before been a full-time closer.
stymeedone
The closer’s job is to get saves. You say using saves to quantify is misguided. WOW. Someone missing the forest because of the trees.
MB923
That’s because they Are misguided. A starting pitcher’s job is to pitch effective and help get his team the W, but a vast majority of people know W-L are extremely overrated, as are Saves. If you use Saves to judge relievers, then you might as well use W-L to judge SP. Using either one of those 2 misguides stats is foolish.
Tyler 20
I understand that saves aren’t a tell all for closers. But the comparison of using saves to value relievers and using win loss for starters simply isn’t accurate. A closers job IS to get the last three out and secure the save. A starting pitchers job is to pitch as much of the game effectively keeping his team in it for the chance of a W. That is affected by his team producing runs etc. bunch of stuff he doesn’t control. However closers don’t have nearly the outside factors in their decisions. Judging a closer on saves vs blown saves is somewhat reasonable. – starter on wins vs losses, is not
MB923
Fair enough. I’m not saying he can’t close, but it doesn’t mean he’d be better at the job than players who have fewer saves than him (nor does it mean all players with more saves than him would be better at the job).
I just think the entire Save stat is a joke and is very misleading. A pitcher in one game can face the 7-8-9 hitters with a 3 run lead, give up 2 runs in the inning, and still get a save. Where as a pitcher faces 3-4-5 in a 1 run game, gives up 1 run ,and gets a Blown Save
This will never happen, but a pitcher can basically have an 18 ERA for the year and have a save % of 100. Whereas another pitcher can have a 9 ERA (or technically 0.00 ERA if the run is unearned) and have a save % of 0. That may sound silly but it is accurate nevertheless which is why I think saves are extremely overrated.
I think WPA is much much better to use for relievers than Saves. Robertson wasn’t even first on his own team. Nate Jones led the White Sox in WPA at 2.11 which ranked 17th in all of baseball. Robertson ranked 34th with a 1.48.
chopper2hopper
You are extremely misguided if you feel the Nats don’t have the pressure. They’re the ones who failed to sign one of the big name closers, they’re the ones who are competing for a 2017 WS, they’re the ones with the manager who historically requires a proven veteran closer (going as far to say at the winter meetings he’s not comfortable with your boys kelly and treinen closing- look it up), and they’re the ones pursuing said “declining” closer with multiple years of control at market value cuz there’s nobody else available.
All you do is provide critical comments towards sox fans. Get over yourself. YOU are the one with a lack of insight and understanding into the situation. But yes, keep pointing to your declining k rate crutch, because that’s the determining factor Rizzo will make (see Papelbon, Jonathan)
sss847
would love a leak on some of the nats prospects discussed in a Robertson deal to see which front office is being unreasonable. this trade should’ve been done 2 months ago.
jleve618
If he preforms anywhere near steady, the fact plenty of teams in contention will want him at the deadline will drive the price higher than that which being balked at now. Sorry if it’s an obvious observation, just my first thought.
SuperSinker
And if he doesn’t perform well? Non elite relievers are highly volatile.
stymeedone
If you look at his track record, you shouldn’t be worried.
brandons-3
I’ve never understood why money was such a big hold up in situations like this. Yes, ideally you don’t want to spend heavily on a rebuilding club so clearing those higher salaries is preferable. Logically, if you’re making a good trade (which Chicago has done on two occasions this winter) the prospect package in return will be of a higher quality than if Washington (or any team and player) took on the salary. I say this because if they don’t trade him they’ll just be paying him anyways, that money won’t be redistributed to guys over the life of the deal who will make this club a contender, so why not eat the money and get the best package you can get for the player?
Just John
That has been my exact thought this entire time. You’re likely improving draft position to boot.
TrumpisMyGawd
You gotta wonder if Hahn is now asking for a king’s ransom because he suspects he got fleeced on the earlier deal . Giolito is how you pronounce Mark Appel in italian. Best hope for the Sox is that Dunne actually makes it as a mop-up man.
Steven P.
Giolito is three years younger than Appel and still has plenty of development time left
Lopez was a major piece to that deal as well
Dunning was a 1st round pick in 2016 and could move quickly through the minors
Tough to judge this deal for a few seasons
stymeedone
The off season is virtually over. All teams, not just Washington, have spent their budgets. It most likely has little to do with D-Rob’s value, and more to do with staying within budget.
metseventually 2
They’ll overpay for Robertson, then the Mets will steal Nate Jones come the deadline 😀
jd396
Eaton for Robertson
mike156
You kind of wonder whether Washington thinks it got its pocket picked in the Adam Eaton deal and wants a reasonable price in this one. We don’t really know what went on in that negotiation–maybe Robertson was more part of the discussion than acknowledged, and was left out when they couldn’t resolved valuations and dollars.
whosyourmomma
Prediction- Deal gets done this week. Nats get D-rob for Taylor & Severino. If Sox eat some money (which I don’t see happening) prospect return will be greater.
Possibility- Nats try to play hardball and nothing gets done leaving them w/o a closer they need & want.
Steven P.
Taylor and Severino is not getting a deal done for Robertson
Sox are looking for a legitimate prospect in return, especially if they have to eat any money on his deal
Aaron Sapoznik
A prospect package would seem to be the White Sox best option for David Robertson but acquiring controllable MLB assets like OF Michael Taylor and C Pedro Severino could have filled an immediate need on Chicago’s 25-man active roster come opening day. It may also be a plausible explanation as to why C Kevan Smith was designated for assignment around February 1st, coinciding with a “reported” imminent deal being in the works before the alleged “stalemate”. Smith’s spot on the White Sox 40-man roster would have been needed to finalize a deal for two MLB assets like Taylor and Severino.
Steven P.
Where are you getting that Michael Taylor has enough value to headline this trade?
in 76 games in 2016 he was slightly below replacement level
Severino is a decent second piece, low ceiling, likely backup catcher or depth option. Defense first player, little power.
If the price were that low a deal would be done already
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
Um… “We don’t want to pay him and we don’t want to trade anything significant for him” rarely gets a deal done…
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Given the value that teams now attach to closers, the real value is in creating them.
A guy can’t be a closer until a team gives him the ball in the 9th.
SupremeZeus
It appears the ball is in the Nats court. We know the Nats aren’t satisfied w/ the bullpen as currently constructed, as they have been publicly chasing multiple closer deals all winter. We also know the Nats already tried to include Robertson in the Eaton trade. Leverage on this particular trade sits w/ The White Sox as they haven’t budged since the Eaton/Robertson trade attempt by the Nats and have rebuffed further offers since. I expect the Nats will pull the trigger once they come to the realization that spring training is upon us, Rick Hahn isn’t budging and the price of poker in the proven closer market has gone up. Robertson will be a Nat sometime before spring training games begin.
dckusmirek
I like Drob, but I haven’t seen any comments on all those balls that left the yard last season.
soxx44
Robertson pitched hurt last year. He has since had surgery on his knee. Despite the injury he had over 30 saves last year and has 110 the past 3 years. His salary of 25 mill over 2 years is chump change compared to what Washington offered Melancon and Jansen to be their closer. Dusty Baker would love to have this guy especially with the Nationals playoff window dwindling due to Harper’s pending free agency, Werth aging and Strasburg’s inconsistent health..
A package of Stevenson, Soto and Watson should get it done. None of these players are on the 40 man roster for Washington. so the Sox would lower their 40 man roster from 39 to 38 with this deal.
cwsOverhaul
IF a deal gets done, likely headliner is Soto OR Stevenson, but not both. Even though Nats want the peace of mind of having an experienced closer, they would and should roll dice on current in-house solutions if Hahn overplays his hand now. This is bad poker. Rizzo knows WS will risk DRob being a bad sunk cost if 1 prospect that hurts to give isn’t included…..Hahn knows coming off his worst season, no one will offer more before season unless a really good team’s closer gets hurt in ST without viable back-up plan.
NellieFox
I believe the Sox absolutely have to pick up a massive chunk of Robertson’s contract so it would allow the Nats to sign Harper next year. but why would they pick up his contract and not get any top prospect in return?
Steven P.
Why should the Sox have to pick up a massive chunk of the contract?
The Nationals aggressively bid for Melancon and Jansen, significantly more tna Robertson will end up costing.
The Sox have the leverage and can hold onto Robertson until the deadline. The Nationals are trying to win the world series in the next two seasons and do not have a proven closer. Kelley and Treinen are quality relievers, but the pen is somewhat thin beyond them. If they can’t get the job done a mid season acquisition could be extremely costly
Priggs89
I don’t think that’s really an issue… Let’s say the White Sox eat massive chunk and pick up like $10mil of the $13mil Robertson is owed next year. Do you really think that difference of $10mil over 1 year will be the difference maker between resigning Harper or not? I don’t… It’s only one year, not multiple years. If that’s the difference between resigning Harper or not, I’m pretty sure they can easily find $10mil in the budget or find some sort of a workaround. And yes, I know it’s not easy to “find” $10mil in a budget, but for a player of that caliber, you make it work.
That being said, I don’t think that small amount of money (relatively speaking) will be the difference maker in a Harper deal.
grimmy_17
Robertson and 14 million for Robles
Aaron Sapoznik
David Robertson for the Nats top rated prospect, OF Victor Robles is not happening regardless of how many dollars the White Sox are willing to eat.
You can be rest assured that Robles was discussed as the centerpiece in the original Chris Sale trade negotiations with Washington before the Red Sox upped their own offer for the ace southpaw pitcher. GM Rick Hahn likely also wanted Robles as the featured player in the subsequent Adam Eaton trade but instead had to “settle” for a package of three well regarded RHP’s, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning.
Face it, the one area of depth that the White Sox already possessed system wide was their pitching. Hahn was able to secure one of the premier MLB positional prospects from the Red Sox when he acquired Yoan Moncada as a centerpiece in the Sale trade. He was probably as determined as ever to do the same in negotiations with Washington, but the Nats balked, at least in the Eaton discussions. They would never relinquish Robles in a straight up swap for Robertson.
Aaron Sapoznik
There has been plenty of commentary regarding these new reports surrounding the latest David Robertson trade to the Nationals. I have left as many comments as anyone but have developed a working theory on just what has transpired over the course of the past two weeks. It involves “detective” work based on the speculative links provided in this article along with reports seen elsewhere. It also involves controllable MLB ready players and prospects in the Nationals system that would make sense as trade components to both organizations as well the recent DFA of White Sox catcher Kevan Smith to open up a spot on their 40-man roster.
As much as I would like to see the White Sox acquire prospects from the likes of Erick Fedde, Carter Kieboom and/or Austin Voth a trade involving both Michael Taylor and Pedro Severino would make a boat load of sense for both organizations.
From the Nationals perspective, the deal would cost them two players who would have very limited roles on their 2017 active roster at best. Taylor would be nothing more than a platoon option in the OF or a spare part with the acquisition of Adam Eaton to man CF full time. Severino is third on their catching depth chart and likely insurance at AAA in 2017. This trade would also allow the Nats to hang on to their remaining prospects, a system which was severely depleted with the recent trade for Eaton from the White Sox.
From Chicago’s point of view, both Taylor and Severino would have an opportunity to fill more immediate needs on their 25-active roster which is now in flux due to their recent decision to undergo a full rebuild. Since each are still young enough and possess years of cheap team control, they would also have an opportunity to become future core pieces with the White Sox rebuild.
Taylor could become the immediate right-handed hitting candidate to platoon with left-handed hitting starting CF Charlie Tilson. He is 4 years younger and more “toolsy” than the likely current candidate, Peter Bourgos who was recently signed by the White Sox to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Because of his age and available minor league options, the White Sox would also have an opportunity to keep Taylor down at AAA Charlotte to begin the 2017 season while utilizing Bourjos early in the year as a potential “flip” candidate to a contender as the summer trade deadline approaches. Taylor could then get more regular playing time at AAA while also working with some of the White Sox more MLB ready prospects who might be also be in line for a promotion later in the summer. Keep in mind that Taylor was also a top-50 MLB prospect as recently as 2015 before he lost his rookie status on the Nats active roster the past two seasons.
Severino would also have an opportunity to make the White Sox active roster come opening day. He is a far better defensive player than the current likely platoon of young left-handed hitting Omar Narvaez and veteran Geovany Soto, yet another player the White Sox signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring camp. As in the case of Taylor, the White Sox would also have some cause to start Severino at AAA Charlotte to open the season. There, he could work with a potentially elite young starting rotation that would include former National prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, pitchers Severino is already very familiar with, as well as home grown talents such as SP Carson Fulmer and closer in waiting, Zack Burdi. Each one of these players would be prime candidates for a mid-season promotion as the White Sox try to peddle veteran by the July 31st trade deadline. Severino could replace another “flip” candidate in Soto while any of the starting pitching prospects might assume the roster spot of veteran trade pieces like Jose Quintana, Derek Holland, Miguel Gonzales and perhaps even James Shields if the latter can regain some likeness of his former self. Burdi would also be a likely bullpen call-up later this summer after gaining more extended time at AAA, potentially even being thrust into the closer role himself depending on how Nate Jones fares as Robertson’s replacement. Jone himself might be a strong trade candidate this summer as a cheap and controllable closer or setup man to a postseason contender.
In regards to the “stalemate” that has seemingly occurred with the Robertson trade talks, it may very well have to do with how much money the White Sox might be willing to eat in the deal. This could have a bearing on a trade with just Taylor and Severino but more likely would involve other prospects potentially heading to Chicago. At face value, Taylor and Severino might not be enough of a return package for the White Sox to agree on the trade. The haggling that could be causing the stalemate might also have to do with the level of additional prospect(s) the White Sox may also be demanding, in addition to any financial element.
Finally, the DFA of Kevan Smith is what originally had me speculating on a possible trade between the clubs that may involve MLB pieces rather than mere prospects. The White Sox had no reason to DFA Smith on or around February 1st unless another roster move was imminent. That also happens to be the time period in which the White Sox and Nats were reportedly close to finalizing their trade until an impasse occurred. Typically, when a player is designated for assignment, a corresponding move is made concurrent to that event. However, the DFA itself does not have to be made public. First word of the White Sox action action regarding Smith didn’t become known until the White Sox “officially” outrighted him on February 10th. This was well after the period had expired in which the White Sox could have either traded Smith himself, released him, had another team claim him off of waivers or even reinstated him back onto the 40-man reserve list. That period typically lasts 10 days until the designating team is then able to outright an eligible player, which the White Sox finally did with Smith on the February 10th.
Steven P.
Stop suggesting Taylor as a major piece coming back to the Sox for Robertson.
Taylor has done absolutely nothing since getting called up to the majors and has been slightly below replacement level
Sox want quality prospects, not mediocre, at best, talent
alexgordonbeckham
Amen. No Taylor for the love of God.
stymeedone
Your speculation on the Kevan Smith DFA has little substance. Teams can make trades, and then make the transactions necessary to get the roster back to 40. There is absolutely no reason for a team to DFA a player because they MAY make a trade. I don’t pretend to know why Smith was designated, but if it was because Hahn was making room for a trade that didn’t happen, he should be fired immediately. You don’t risk losing one of your top 40 players when you don’t have to.
Aaron Sapoznik
Not if the trade was imminent, as the Robertson deal seemed to be per reports. It’s rare that a player would be designated for assignment, especially this late in the offseason, without a corresponding move happening. There was no need to DFA Smith, especially being a catcher in an organization thin at the position, just two weeks from the date that pitchers and catchers are expecting to report for spring training.
Imo, the trade must have been on the verge of occurring before hitting a snag. Another catcher, Pedro Severino, likely would have been a part of the return package coming to the White Sox. If something wasn’t brewing and likely to happen, the White Sox took an awful risk in exposing Smith to the waiver wire. He was one of only 3 catchers on their 40-man roster which includes Omar Narvaez who has the most MLB experience, a grand total of 34 games. Smith was the other “veteran” with 7 big league appearances to his credit.
In the meantime, it’s been about two weeks and still no corresponding roster move. If Smith was designated to make room for another waiver claim or free agent signing like Matt Wieters, that should have occurred already. Perhaps the Robertson trade will still happen.
Aaron Sapoznik
I’m of the opinion that the Robertson deal to the Nationals was all but a done deal at the time of the Kevan Smith DFA. I believe a handshake agreement was in place between White Sox GM Rick Hahn and his counterpart in Washington, Mike Rizzo until a snag occurred at the ownership level that prevented the trade from becoming official last week.
In a subsequent article on this very site that featured an interview with Hahn, he was asked, “Were there some deals this winter that were one dropped signal or one email to spam from happening?” His reply was, “…yes, we did have two deals—with different clubs, involving different players—die at the ownership approval stage when the other clubs decided in the end that the deal did not work for them.” I believe one of those two deals involved Robertson and the Nationals.
Btw-To assert that a clubs 40-man roster also contains an organization’s “top 40 players” is ill-informed. Most organizational prospects are not on their team’s reserve roster. They are not required to be until they actually make their MLB debuts. You can take 10 prospects from virtually any organizations list of elite talent and make a case that they are more valuable assets than the bottom 10 players on a typical 40-man roster.
In addition, it would require a far greater indiscretion than a DFA of Kevan Smith for Rick Hahn to lose his job as GM for an owner like Jerry Reinsdorf. His loyalty to his front office personnel, be them White Sox or Bulls, knows no bounds. A decade of mediocrity with either franchise is not enough to warrant dismissal of any GM with the “Chairman of the Board” in Chicago, let alone an ill-advised DFA. lol
alexgordonbeckham
They wouldn’t have to make room for Severino (plus others that could go on 40) until after an official deal. Stop blowing up every Nats thread with this logic. The timing was perfect to sneak a catcher through waivers. Better to do it now than after teams have catching injuries.
bts76
I wonder if the Nats signing of Weiters, loosens their grip on the young catcher. Win Now ?
cwsOverhaul
Unless Severino is a 2nd piece of a deal (future backup C) where Sox agree to split the money, hope this latest report is off. His profile suggests he is the modern day Ron Karkovice. If he’s the main prospect of 2, wouldn’t pay a dime of Robertson’s salary. That said, assume Hahn would rather risk holding on to him than do a salary dump.
Just John
Totally agree. An experience MLB closer for a catcher with a 6-year minors career OBP of .296, yyyyuck.
chesteraarthur
Oh look, David Robertson isn’t worth what WS fans thought he was. It’s almost like his contract is roughly market value or something.
stymeedone
Did I miss him actually being traded? If not, I guess none of us, not even you, know how he is valued, yet.
chopper2hopper
Just ignore this Chester A Arthur dude. All he does is rip sox fans up and down these boards. He’s got some pent up hostility amd feels the need to let loose on sox fans on a message board, cuz that’s the kind of loser he is.
blovy8
Yeah, it’s a bit unfair, because there aren’t freely available, experienced, average closers who are only slightly overpaid. I think the impetus for Hahn to get these players moved is not only to get the most he can in value, but to suppress the 2017 record so they get a better draft pick. They also save money which can be used by the club in other ways to hopefully develop their system.
cwsOverhaul
Seems to be a general bitterness on boards and in baseball for WSox that Hahn had the audacity to do his job ever since getting what is perceived as more than he should have for Eaton. Lot of people waiting for him to be “put back in his place” by taking less than a decent return in his next deals. As in any business, no deal is better than a bad deal if they have to be patient with certain players…..at risk of injury or underperformance.
chesteraarthur
I actually like the ws. And I have been lobbying for Hahn to get control of the front office for a couple of years. (He was pretty clearly a KW puppet in his early time). But WS fans have gotten uber annoying at over rating their players.
David Robertson is a meh reliever signed to a market rate contract. Look at what the frame work of the deal that got shot down by management was. A very bleh prospect for drob (and possibly some money). That’s not the type of return that is constantly bandied about here.
Telling people that they are over rating their players and the return they will get has nothing to do with disliking a team. It has to do with unreasonable fans who flood every post that *might* have anything to do with their players. No one is mad or out to get the ws. They wont be relevant for 3+ years. It’s just incredibly annoying to see constant drivel from people who don’t understand value.
chopper2hopper
If this is the case, belittling the team and its fans’ thoughts on trade targets is obviously your prerogative. Certainly every team in every sport has a population of irrational fans. The large bulk of what I’m reading certainly does not constitute as irrational in regards to Robertson. The facts are:
1) The sox are looking to trade vets for younger players and will not sacrifice value in doing so.
2) The Nats covet David Robertson, evidenced by the multiple reports by reputable outlets- including the fact that Rizzo wanted him in the Eaton deal.
3) you, me, or anybody else on the forum has no idea who is *specifically* being discussed.
This is less fact as it is debatable, but if you’re prepared to write off David Robertson as “meh” so be it. But dumping on the guy’s value as a high leverage arm in a game that has greatly gravitated towards seems incredibly shortsighted. I’ve yet to read anything comparing him to kenley/chapman, but there’s certainly some middle ground between that and “meh” and certainly hope the compensation is more than the #9 prospect on the Nats. Call me irrational, we shall see.
Aaron Sapoznik
Well said!
cwsOverhaul
Not as annoying as a delusional/self-important poster who lives on the site thinking they know more about ‘value’ or baseball in general. Just among the WS fans with a sober approach that the better prospect they want (Soto or Stevenson), the more of DRob contract they’ll have to eat to make it happen for helping the rebuild effort. That is not overrating his value. Bully for you that you thought Hahn needed more control than KW like most fans from the start. Doubt anyone cared or needed that validation.
LaffitesLanding
Robertson is owed $25 million for the next two years. He is a durable reliever but probably one who will have a 3.40 type ERA over this time period. That’s why probably worth around 12-16 million. That means he is being paid at least $9 million more than he’s worth
If the Nationals give up a player with six years of control even if he’s a backup catcher, that is at least $10-$16 million of worth of value. Let’s call Severino, by himself, $10 million of excess value on the low side. That means if the Nationals were to include Severino, they should except the White Sox will eat ALL of Robertson’s contract. Maybe the Nationals pay $6 million. That’s without adding another prospect.
cwsOverhaul
A light hitting C isn’t worth much in a rebuild effort. Waste of a trade chip. Not contending Robertson is a lights out closer by any stretch, but the market return will be much better later if he is just decent. Worth rolling dice to keep since Nats only somewhat serious suitor at present. Easy to be stingy when 0-0.
chesteraarthur
unless robertson is bad, again and loses all value. This idea that value can only increase towards the trade deadline just shows people don’t understand baseball.
jleve618
Feel better now? Of course it could go down. He could also be lights out and that combined with demand will make it skyrocket. If he tows the line, it probably goes up a little. I’d bet on the last option, but it’s just a guess. Time will tell. Unless he is traded, then we’ll probably be arguing he stunk it up and was an overpay or was lights out and an underpay, haha.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
It can decrease, but if this is how the market is currently valuing him, it can’t decrease that much. Better to hold off and hope for the best; if you lose, you’re really not that much worse. Plus, one of the reasons to trade Robertson for the Sox is for them to lose more games and try to get the #1 pick. If he sucks, then he’s helping them lose anyway.
Tigersin2020
They will make the trade. They’re all in because they know Harper is gone soon.
Aaron Sapoznik
Per Jayson Stark tweet:
Matt Wieters is the 11th Scott Boras client on the Nationals! Almost half the roster – but about two-thirds of the payroll (over $110M)
Seems to me the best way to expedite the stalemated trade talks between the White Sox and “Team Boras” would be for David Robertson to drop his current representation of Lapa/Leventhal and switch to the Boras Corporation. lol
Rob66
Nats could have signed low cost relievers such as Rodney, Feliz, Romo, Uehara or even Drew Storen and let them battle it out. All have closing experience and surely at least one would be servicable this year. And don’t overlook that they signed Joe Nathan to a minor league contract..
John Murray
You’re either going for it, or you aren’t. With just a couple of years of Bryce Harper left, you can’t wait until next year. Robertson at least has the personality to close…go get him.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
They want him, they just want him for practically nothing. They would like the Sox to pay down on his deal and get an MLB-roster player or throwaway prospects. Robertson is no Miller or Chapman, but 13 of the 24 runs he gave up were in just 3 outings. He’s awful a few times a year; other than that, he’s pretty good. It’s different than being below average most outings. He’s worth more than just Derek Norris.
chesteraarthur
Yeah, personality is what’s important. Not like skill is what matters in MLB or nuffins
Priggs89
Yah, because Robertson doesn’t have an MLB-level skill set. I mean, he only put up FIP’s of 2.68 or lower in the 5 years prior to last year.
We get it. You’re writing him off and think last year represents his true talent level and value.
bosox90
I know three-team trades rarely happen in the MLB, but what about something like Norris to the Rays/Angels, whatever return the Nationals get heads to Chicago along with another Nats prospect or two for Robertson?
Chicago gets a nice little package for D-Rob, Nats get D-Rob and shed Norris, Rays/Angels get a catcher they desperately need (Rays not as desperate, but could move Norris to 1B/DH when Ramos comes back).
blovy8
More like Ramos to DH mostly this year. They can work him into catching really gradually. It makes some sense, but again, if the Rays are ok with a trade like this, why wouldn’t they have just given the Padres a non-prospect for him a few months ago?
blovy8
If his hip is ok, I’d rather they just let Koda Glover have first crack at the job, keep Kelley as setup, Treinen for messy middle inning jams and as alternate closer. Solis probably as the multi-inning lefty/spot starter, Perez and Romero as LH, and let the invites and AAA guys like Worley, Nathan, Cole, Gott, Albers, Turner, etc. duke it out for the fourth RH reliever. No matter how Robertson’s $$$ is cut down, anything they add is money they can’t use next year and probably have to prune this year for some unstated budget level that’s about 160 million.. I suspect they’ll be working hard to make room even for the 5 million they just added.to get them to that level. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this pretty much eliminate all those pitchers who would get a few million if they made the club now. It could be that this deal is really dead, and Rizzo might just make a dump deal for Norris to get him in a better situation for a bag of balls.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Great line about them wanting to get rid of Norris instead. I don’t think the Nationals understand that a trade should make sense for both teams. Norris will be a free agent in 2019, just when the Sox might start to contend, so how, exactly, would trading for him help? If this is the best the Nats will offer, Sox should just hold Robertson for a few months and hope he’s fully recovered from his surgery.
SupremeZeus
It is pretty clear the White Sox will hold on to Robertson if they don’t receive a satisfactory offer. Reports have indicated, the Nats have swung and missed on a Robertson deal at least twice. It is Feb. 22, ST games start Saturday and Robertson is putting on a White Sox uniform this morning. If Rizzo wants Robertson he will have to blink, all evidence says Rick Hahn will not. I predict Robertson will be a National before next Monday.
Aaron Sapoznik
I would agree with your projection, or at least with the likelihood of a David Robertson trade occurring at some point during spring training if not by “next Monday”.
The odds of a trade have increased with the Nats free agent signing of Matt Wieters giving them even more of a surplus at catcher than before. The White Sox covet Pedro Severino and the Wieters acquisition can only help in their endeavor to acquire him.
In addition, Robertson seems to be the one available White Sox veteran who would actually welcome a trade to a contender, unlike others like Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu who have publicly stated their desire to remain as leaders on a rebuilding White Sox club. Rick Hahn would like nothing better than to accommodate his wish and it’s no secret that Nationals manager Dusty Baker wants a veteran closer to complete the Nationals offseason. This long anticipated but stalemated trade just makes too much sense not to happen.
Aaron Sapoznik
Valid point, although 2019 is also a timeline in which White Sox top rated catching prospect Zack Collins might be ready for prime time duty. Theoretically, Derek Norris could hold down the fort until Collins is ready to assume the mantle of the White Sox regular starting catcher.
That being said, I still believe the White Sox priority would be to acquire younger and more controllable assets for David Robertson. Washington appears reluctant to part with any more of their more elite prospects that still remain in their system after forfeiting 3 of them to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton deal last December. GM Rick Hahn may have to settle for a couple of pieces already on the Nats 40-man roster rather than higher ranked talents who are still at the lower levels of their minor league system. Nationals catcher Pedro Severino would qualify as one of those pieces.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I wouldn’t mind Severino, especially since the jury’s still out on whether Collins sticks at C. As for Norris, he’s better than what the Sox had last year, which means I wouldn’t really want him on the Sox helping them win games. Let them tank for a couple years. I know it won’t be like flipping a switch and suddenly all the prospects learn how to play MLB-level ball, but for 2018, at least, they’ll be awful. Might as well be as bad as possible.