MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
As you may have heard, the White Sox are entering a rebuilding phase. For 25-year-old Avisail Garcia, that may be a good thing. Otherwise, he might already have been pushed out of his current spot atop the South Siders’ depth chart in right field.
Before this winter, the Chicago front office’s last significant selling move came at the 2013 trade deadline, when the team landed Garcia and three other prospects in the swap that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. The hope at the time was that Garcia would step right into the MLB lineup and make himself a fixture.
Despite his evident tools, Garcia has thus far fallen well shy of hopes. There has been no shortage of opportunity — he has taken over 1,500 trips to the plate in the majors — but the results just haven’t been there.
In the aggregate, Garcia has slashed a modest .258/.310/.385 while striking out at a 23.8% clip and walking just 6.2% of the time. Though he carries a solid 14.4% HR/FB rate, Garcia has put the ball on the ground quite a bit, carrying a 53.2% goundball rate. Despite the power potential, and a healthy .320 career BABIP, Garcia just hasn’t reached base enough or hit for enough power to rate as even an average corner outfielder.
Adding to the concern is the fact that Garcia has never shown polish in the other aspects of his game. Over his career, he has rated as a well-below-average baserunner and fielder. In the aggregate, Garcia has posted -1.4 fWAR and 0.1 rWAR for his career — anemic tallies considering the amount of time he has received.
If there’s a ray of hope, perhaps it can be found in the improvements Garcia did make in 2016. He drew positive metrics for both his glovework and baserunning for the first time; if that can be maintained, it would significantly boost his floor. Of course, the offensive work — .245/.307/.385 — hardly gave added cause for optimism. But Garcia has long been valued most for the upside in his bat, and he has yet even to reach his 26th birthday.
As noted, that background likely wouldn’t be sufficient for Garcia to enter the season with a regular job were it not for the fact that the White Sox already committed to a rebuild. With little in the way of roster pressure, he ought to receive a fair bit of rope to establish himself.
But there could well come a point where the White Sox decide to cut bait, particularly if they feel other, yet younger players are more deserving of an opportunity. Garcia’s contractual upside is limited, after all, and not just because he’s owed $3MM this year. Much like former top prospect Jurickson Profar, another younger player who isn’t fully established in the bigs, Garcia will enter the 2017 season with just two more years of club control remaining thereafter.
It’s not altogether clear whether Garcia has much of a future with the White Sox, whether or not he can pull himself out of his malaise. Perhaps the best-case scenario for Chicago is one in which Garcia plays well enough to turn himself into a solid trade candidate, freeing the organization to move him either this summer or next winter. For Garcia, though, there’s still plenty of opportunity both to build off of a nice platform arb salary and to develop a case for a free-agent payday after the 2019 campaign, which he’ll play at just 28 years of age.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Well start the man whitesox
Tigers have gotten the better of this deal so far. But Garcia could still be a late bloomer. 25 is still pretty young.
Just keep him away from the wives and start the man
Sleeps well with other’s (wives)
Grow up women will do what they won’t and men are weak when brain 2 get turned on !
thebare is really Gabby Johnson.
Ask Trump
Theres no use to keep bringing it up as a rumor. Cmon now
That rumor is just a rumor, can people stop bring that up now?
They did get their starting SS, but the Red Sox don’t miss Iglesias at all and won the World Series that year, thanks in part to Peavy’s work solidifying the back end of the rotation.
Yep Red Sox got exactly what they wanted (even if he sucked in post-season. I really can’t remember).
I’m pretty sure he sucked but I guess it doesn’t really matter anymore
He did suck, the first game in Detroit he walked the bases loaded either in the first inning or second, but overall he was good for the Red Sox if nothing else as and innings eater, I was sad to see Iggy go, One hell of a defensive player
(ALCS that is)
CWS hopes he keeps hitting well enough to trade in July and get a prospect back.
I want to know how Peter O’Brien’s spring is going so far.
3-8 with a walk, all his hits are homers lol 4 runs scored and 6 RBI. Defensively though, I doubt he’s drawing rave reviews.
rats. well, i’m pulling for him to get that defense conundrum fixed
He effectively hit a ball out of Maryvale (one bounce through a chain link-ish fence), which is nice. I’ve been there a few times, and walked right past where that fence is situated. Not a short distance.
yeah, I heard once that he doesn’t get rave reviews at catcher or the outfield
Garcia should have been demoted or waived last year. He’s easily the worst “starting” RF in baseball.
Easily the worst starting RF in baseball is a huge stretch. You must not realize the Athletics are starting Matt Joyce in said position.
Joyce is only a platoon player.
Joyce is also considerably better than Avi
It was a make or break year for Garcia last season too. Pitch recognition/ability to control the zone is abysmal. At this point, I think it is pretty clear what Garcia is. The only reason he is still employed by the White Sox (maybe any big league team) is b/c they blew it up and are trying to lose as many games possibly this season. Garcia aids the Sox in this quest more than any RF in the league could.
Nah, gotta disagree. The real reason he’s still there that upper management hates to admit when they’re wrong about a player. Excessive loyalty to marginal (or bad) players is a common theme with sports franchises owned by Jerry Reinsdorf. In Avi’s case, they’re overly impressed that he’s a big guy who can run. They overlook the terrible at-bats, lack of power, injury proneness, and below average fielding.
Overall, their scouting for outfield talent has been poor over the years. One wonders how K.W. kept his job as GM so long with such a poor track record of drafting position players. I hope Jerry’s son is more of a hard ass than his dad is, or things will never change for the Sox and Bulls.
Michael Reinsdorf has nothing to do with the White Sox and likely never will. When Jerry retires it is believed he will sell the White Sox and let Michael continue to run the Bulls.
So far, the GarPax front office duo with the Bulls isn’t providing any better results than the Williams/Hahn pairing with the White Sox, although I have more faith in Rick Hahn as GM than any of the other three executives in the Reinsdorfs’ employ.
Williams has continue to fail time and time again. If he wasn’t changing Reinsdorfs diapers he wouldn’t be there. Garcia is another rotten acquisition by him and his regime. Can’t wait til he’s gone. He’s an arrogant bonehead.
Hey Sox, bring back Dayan Vicied.
As Lasorda says (Garcia) he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat
Are you certain he wasn’t referring to the RF on the North Side of Chicago last season? lol
Heyward is still an instant out so far in spring training. His batting stance still looks awkward and broken. Don’t be surprised if Maddon benched him early on during the season when he’s flirting with the Mendoza line.
Pale Hoser fans are so sadly predictable. They’d rather take pokes at the Cubs’ success than take a hard look at their own perennially dysfunctional team and organization.
Grow up.
If the shoe fits…..
As a 61-year old lifelong fan of both Chicago baseball teams I’m happy taking “pokes” at both teams regardless of their success. I’m also not above praising them when it is warranted.
Over my lifetime, both teams have sucked more often than not, so I have had plenty of practice with my “polking”. lol
He was heralded as a real up-and-coming steal of the deal when the Pale Hosers traded for him. The Tigers were evidently glad to get rid of him for many reasons, on and off the field.
Garcia’s ship has Avi-sailed.
Meh. At that time, Tigers were in the hunt and Peralta was gone due to the biogenesis scandal and was on an expiring contract. Avi was good but they needed Iglesias more than Avi. The rumor about him sleeping w prince fielders wife while juicy, isnt true. He got along fine in Detroit.
He has been a disappointment. Injuries have hurt him and set his development back. He is young enough to be given another year to fulfill his potential.