MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
Relative to expectations, few major leaguers are coming off poorer seasons than Diamondbacks right-hander Shelby Miller, whose first year in Arizona couldn’t have gone much worse. Miller had been a quality starter with the Cardinals and Braves over the three prior seasons, but the Diamondbacks’ decision to send a haul to Atlanta for him in December 2015 was universally panned from the get-go.
Clearly regarding Miller as an ace, the D-backs’ front office parted with two well-regarded prospects, shortstop Dansby Swanson (the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft) and righty Aaron Blair, as well as highly valuable center fielder Ender Inciarte to land him. That choice ultimately helped cost Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson their jobs this past offseason, which came on the heels of dreadful performances from Miller and the 69-win team the executives helped build.
In a year that included a stint on the disabled list, a midsummer demotion to Triple-A and nearly another trade, Miller posted career worsts in ERA (6.15), K/9 (6.24), BB/9 (3.74) and swinging-strike percentage (7.0) across 101 innings. On Atlanta’s end, Blair endured an even worse 70 frames in his first taste of big league action, but Swanson impressed in his 145-plate appearance debut and figures to serve as their long-term answer at short. The defensively adept Inciarte, meanwhile, played well enough to land a lucrative contract extension.
While the trade is never going to turn into a positive for the Arizona organization, it’s possible Miller will revert to being a valuable contributor. He’s still only 26, after all, and not far removed from the aforementioned 2013-15 stretch that saw him register a terrific 3.27 ERA over 561 2/3 innings, albeit with so-so strikeout and walk rates (7.48 and 3.25 per nine) and a below-average ground-ball percentage (42.3). He’ll also have help from behind the plate, with new GM Mike Hazen having ditched a poor pitch-framing catcher (Welington Castillo) in favor of a good one (Jeff Mathis) during the offseason. Moreover, Hazen added ex-major league hurlers Dan Haren and Burke Badenhop (a former MLBTR contributor) to the front office, and those two will attempt to aid Miller and the team’s other pitchers in their new roles.
Miller revealed last month that attempting to live up to the trade hindered him last season, and he told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that he’s trying to “almost go back to being a Little Leaguer and have fun.” It’s only spring, granted, but it appears that approach is working. In his most recent outing on Thursday, Miller hit 99 mph on the radar gun and shut down the Cubs over three innings of one-hit ball, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
Diamondbacks pitching coach Mike Butcher then raved about Miller to Piecoro on Sunday, saying (via Twitter): “Mentally, he’s in a great place. He’s where he needs to be. He just looks really, really good right now. And he’s confident. He’s on a mission, man.”
Whether Miller’s encouraging spring carries over into the regular season will obviously affect his earning power for years to come. Thanks to his minor league demotion last season, Miller didn’t accrue a year of big league service time, meaning he could be under Arizona’s control through the 2019 campaign. Miller will earn $4.7MM this year after the Diamondbacks defeated him in arbitration during the offseason, and he’ll be a prime non-tender candidate next winter if he fails to rebound in 2017. On the other hand, flashing something resembling the form he showed prior to 2016 would net Miller a raise in arbitration or even a contract extension. It’s fair to say, then, that Miller’s in for a make-or-break year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Send Dansby back.
Lmao why would we send Dansby back to you ?
LOL
Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller is still an overpay.
This poor guy could win a Cy Young award and that trade still is horrifically one-sided.
I don’t think Miller will ever be the pitcher he could be in az
Moving him to a pitching friendly environment and he will blossom
You realize that dansby hasn’t proven a thing right? He could totally flop this year for atl meanwhile miller could turn things around by putting up good numbers. The trade last year is hardly a finished product. Give it time
Dansby has proven almost everything except playing 162 games, what in tarnation are you talking about? He’s incredible and showed it last year at the highest level.
you realize Dansby and Blair don’t even have to, right? Inciarte carries as much (more after out performing Miller last year on $/WAR) value as Miller.
No matter what Miller accomplishes, the cloud of that trade will be hanging over his head forever. Nobody deserves that. Miller should be permitted to kick Dave Stewart in the bollocks once a year in perpetuity.
Once a day at least.
Missing Dansby so much here in the desert. I truly hope Miller turns it around but he’ll never have the impact that Swanson and Inciarte will have in ATL. Horrible trade from the start.
I laugh every time I hear this trade mentioned.
It’s not as bad as the rays passing up on joe Ross and trea turner
That’s actually a pretty interesting alternative. I’d *probably* take dansby/blair/ender (at time of trade) over Turner/Ross, but Shleby Miller is also more valuable that Souza Jr. Couldn’t fault anyone for either choice though.
Nope, nothing is as bad as the Miller trade.
I can still see this trade being mutually beneficial, or even (very unlikely, I know) shifting in favor of the D-Backs. If Miller reverts back to being a 2nd starter in that rotation AT WORST, and Swanson becomes a pretty good player it’s a good trade. Inciarte is replaceable and Blair could be a bust, so I’m not writing this off as a huge blunder, not yet
The problem is (and was at the time this happened) he’s not a 2nd starter, at least not for a good team. He could be a 2 on that team but that doesn’t make him anywhere close to as valuable as the package they gave up.
And yes, ender is replaceable, but that’s gonna cost assets which they don’t have to give up now that they have him for cf.
Lol “Ender is replaceable” as if 3-5 WAR players are easy to find, NOPE~wrong you lose.
Hmmm, it’s like you don’t even know what the word replaceable means…
You know there was a player who is similarly valuable traded THIS offseason, right?
Well he couldn’t play the race card since Inciarte isn’t black, so he channeled his thoughts somewhere else for once.
Sounds like wishful thinking. It was a TERRIBLE trade. Deal with it.
It will never ever ever go to AZ’s favor. He could have an ERA of 1.00 and they still will lose. Miller and Teheran for that package might have been more palatable.
Lol poor dback fans go Bravos
It’ll never be an equal trade, but I’m hoping Miller can bounce back out in the desert. I’m most annoyed that it kickstarted ATL’s rebuild. They are still a distant 3rd for the division, but they could hang around .500 if Dickey and Colon are able to offer them productive innings.
At least Shelby looks good in the white and turquoise right?
Totally