In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that while there’s a pretty good chance of an Andrew McCutchen trade this summer, the Pirates aren’t by any means planning a full tear-down of the roster. As such, Rosenthal notes that right-hander Gerrit Cole isn’t likely to be traded, considering he’s controllable for two more years beyond the current campaign. Trading McCutchen, whose bat has come to life over the past few weeks, wouldn’t be done as a means of waving a white flag on the 2017 campaign. Rather, the team could look to replace him in the lineup with a more affordable and/or controllable trade acquisition, as the Bucs did last year when replacing Melancon and Francisco Liriano with Felipe Rivero and Ivan Nova. McCutchen has a club option for the 2018 season that is valued at $14.5MM, and he’ll be a free agent thereafter.
A couple more highlights…
- The Padres are seeking a “Will Smith” type of return for lefty setup man Brad Hand, one rival executive tell Rosenthal. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants last season in exchange for right-hander Phil Bickford, who at the time was 14 months removed from being a first-round pick, and catcher Andrew Susac — a former top prospect with MLB experience already under his belt. The Padres, of course, needn’t look to mirror that exact structure, but it seems fair to believe that GM A.J. Preller and his staff are hopeful of acquiring one near-MLB-ready asset and another highly touted young prospect in any deal for Hand, who is controllable through 2019. A pair of recent rough outings have made Hand’s numbers look a bit more mortal, but he’s still sporting a strong 2.84 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate through 38 innings.
- Rosenthal also writes that fans shouldn’t expect to see the Cubs trade any of their young MLB-level hitters this summer. He suggests that Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora and even the less-experienced Ian Happ are all unlikely to be moved, though Chicago certainly has a number of upper-level prospects that would entice rival teams to part with talent that could help turn around the season for the reigning World Series champions. Rosenthal also spoke with right-hander Jake Arrieta at length in an interesting interview about his struggles this season. While the former Cy Young winner conceded that his workload in 2015-16 may be having more of an effect on him than he’d like to admit. As Rosenthal notes, virtually every member of the Cubs’ rotation that pitched into the World Series has had some level of struggle this season, and the same is largely true of the Indians.
At the time of the Smith trade, I thought it was an overpay. Then I saw how good he was and how pricey relievers got, and now I think it was just the right amount. Sure it’s a pity he got hurt this year, but who could’ve foreseen that?
Yeah, getting a return like that for Hand would be great, especially if they could get another good pitching prospect to add to the farm.
Heath Bell-Benoit-Arrow and now Hand history of Padre relievers doing anything after traded or leaving is weak
Kimbrel
Luke Gregerson, Brad Brach, Brad Boxberger before injury, Nick Vincent, Huston Street had a great year for the angels before injuries caught up with his age, craig kimbrel. For every one that flamed out you can find one that didnt.
But whatever helps you sleep at night.
Frieri was also good with LAA after being traded for Amarista.
There was also Scott Linebrink and Akinori Otsuka, though I think Linebrink flamed out while he was still on the team.
Cla Meredith was better than both Linebrink and Otsuka. He had a couple good years with Baltimore after SD dealt him for Oscar Salazar I believe. I want to say in 2010.
Neither is anything that came in return from those trades either honestly.
Heath Bell left as a free-agent
Benoit did okay for Seattle and Toronto last year and the pitcher the Padres got in return from Seattle for him is still in AA.
The arrow was terrible in MIA but is doing well again with Arizona while the player the Padres received from MIA is recovering from TJ still.
Gregerson was flipped for Seth Smith who was then flipped for Maurer. Uh, yeah don’t think Gregerson is weak.
Adams was flipped for Weiland and Erlin, Adams pitched well for Texas during their pennant run years.
Frieri for Amarista was pretty even.
Street for Jose Rondon is still pending.
Kimbrel for Margot, Asuaje, Allen and Guerra looks like it will eventually favor SD even though Boston is reaping the benefits of it right now.
A month ago when he was pitching like an ace, maybe you trade Cole. No reason to sell low. If he rebounds, deal him. 3 playoff runs worth of control has more value than 2.
Unless they suspect Marte won’t be the same player without PED’s, the Pirates MUST trade Cutch.
Thankfully, he’s found his swing again and might actually fetch some value.
If anyone, the Pirates should trade Nova.
They do a great job of resurrecting pitchers, but they do a sloppy job of selling high.
Don’t make the same mistake that they did with Liriano.
Oh my, no. If anything, I’d add two more years to his deal. Nova is, by far, the most sustainable of Searage’s reclamation projects. And he left big money on the table to stay here.
Liriano was a very different situation. He rarely threw strikes. They looked like strikes, so batters swung for a while. Then they catch on and stop swinging. When he’s forced to put it over the plate, they pounce. And then it’s time for him to change leagues. The extensive scouting and video is starting to catch up with him. 30 years ago, he’d still be dominant.
Taillon and Nova are building blocks. Cole is a Boras client. He gone.
Wouldn’t say nova is a building block as he’s on the wrong side of 30, but I agree that you have to keep him. Even when he starts to regress, he will still be a capable 3-4 starter.
Source for Nova leaving money on the table?
An article on Dejan Kovajevic’s site. He didn’t even take offers from other teams. His mom told him that Pittsburgh was now his home.
Go back and check this site’s and other’s expected contract for him vs. what he accepted and you’ll see it in the math. He took far less than JA Happ got and Nova’s free agency was in a much weaker pitching market.
And just to answer above, he’s only 30. He should have 3-5 more good years as a SP. But yeah, even if he does regress…he’s making less than Jon Niese did for the Bucs last year. $8.7 million per vs. $9 million for Niese. Hard to dislike that contract from the team’s point of view.
Re Happ, it sounded like he really wanted to go back to Toronto and it was reported in the articles that he never went back to the Pirates with what he was offered by the Jays so they never had an opportunity to really try to match or beat the offer made by the Pirates. That said, no one could have even guessed that Happ would have done what he did last year based on his prior history. He never had a year like that, ever. Considering his age too, it looked like the Jays overpaid for the guy.. Hindsight says they stole a pitcher.
Nothing wrong with a 30+ building block. Just ask my Mets… 6 young pitchers as building blocks and none can stay healthy. Guys like Nova are durable which they probably want to build around
Nova is durable? Did you completely miss his 5 year run on the Yankees? Lack of durability was his hallmark.
Jake Arrieta=Flash in the pan
Even if you are right, it was one heck of a flash!
He certainly extinguished the Pirates best chance to win.
98 wins to get one game against a dude with an 0.49 ERA a year after getting Bumgarner.
And Schwarber hits one to the moon before it hits the river and now he can’t hit a beach ball.
Oh well, that’s baseball.
Schwarber has been hitting better of late and has 12 bombs. If baseball was easy they would call it soccer. Adjustments pitchers have made them now schwarber needs too .
“Genius” Joe Maddon finally has Kyle Schwarber hitting where he should have been to begin the season, in the #5 spot of the batting order for tonight’s game against the Padres. Now if he could just get the rest of his lineup straight instead of pulling the names out of a hat like he seems to have been doing most of the season.
Having Schwarber as a leadoff hitter was a big mistake. He should have been a featured member of a powerful Cubs 3-4-5 this season with Anthony Rizzo hitting #3 and Kris Bryant in the cleanup spot.
Switch-hitting veteran Ben Zobrist is a prototypical MLB #2 hitter but Maddon has had him batting cleanup this year more often than not. When Zobrist returns from the disabled list he needs to be in the #2 role when he starts. Rookie teammate Ian Happ, who also swings from both sides of the plate, would be fine as a #2 when Zobrist is rested twice a week.
CF Jon Jay should have been the Cubs primary leadoff hitter this season to replace Dexter Fowler. Rookie platoon partner Albert Almora, with excellent splits versus left-handed pitching, would have been just fine in the same role when he started against southpaws.
Finally, no more hitting the pitcher #8 on a regular basis.
Agreed
Thanks, “coach.” Lol.
I’m sure Maddon is jotting down your your “expert” analysis, as we speak.
It doesn’t matter where you hit someone in the lineup. If they’re in a slump, they’re in a slump.
I say this as someone who payed baseball for 15 years of my life. It’s a confidence issue. Sometimes hitting confidence is high, and sometimes it’s low. In rare instances, it will get REALLY low, like Schwarber’s.
My guess is he’s having some sort of unknown off-the-field personal issue
The Cubs are also coming off playing a LONG season, where they just won a World Series Championship under who? Oh yea, Joe Maddon. Lol.
He also has no choice but to mix and match lineups. They have too much talent to have a set lineup and leave guys not playing for weeks on end.
Also, it’s intelligent to tailor your lineup to the team you’re playing. That’s where analytics come into play.
And Jon Jay is not an everyday player, and he also hits much better off the bench.
LaRussa used to hit the pitcher 8 and it worked great. Again, minor details that makes no difference in the bigger picture. Some nights it will be a good move, other nights it might not. Depends on any number of “x” variables.
Anyone that blames Maddon is just looking for a a scapegoat. Plain and simple.
Jake Arrieta= 2 road World Series wins and a ring
1-Cub fans are praying Arrieta has the same opportunity this postseason.
2-Arrieta may need to duplicate those numbers in the playoffs in order to regain some lost free agent value from his mediocre 2017 regular season performance to date.
Javier Baez for Chris Archer? Beckham and Baez up the middle could be a very nice young combo for the Rays for many years to come.
Not happening. Archer is going to demand much more than that.
The Rays would need four Javier Baezs for that to work
The Cubs are unlikely to deal Javier Baez unless they get a player back who is capable of backing up starting SS Addison Russell for an extended period of time in case the latter gets injured or suspended in relation to his pending domestic violence issue.
Ben Zobrist began his MLB career with the Rays as a SS but he didn’t become a full time starter in the big leagues until he moved off the position exclusively. The versatile 36-year old can play the position in a pinch but hasn’t started a game there since his last season with the Rays in 2014.
Agreed. Baez isn’t going anywhere. What most fans don’t seem to understand is that this season is more of an experimental season for the Cubs.
They need to evaluate all the talent they have and see who they should keep and who’s expendable. Of course, the front office is never going to tell you that, and I don’t blame them.
I realize fans want to win a World Series every year, but baseball is arguably the hardest sport for this to happen in. They will come back strong next year. Mark my words, but this year is an evaluation year.
More like Baez Canderlario and Cease
Done.
Cubs are not trading Cease
I believe pitchers are more apt to experience a down year after a lengthy post season experience; which makes it extremely difficult to repeat championships with the same staff. All the games are high leverage innings and it seems to tax their bodies to the max. Arrieta is a beast and even he wasn’t immune to the effect. As the article accurately states, Cleveland starters have had their share of trouble as well.
It will be challenging for the Cubs to acquire a preferred quality and controllable starting pitcher such as Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Chris Archer unless they part with at least one of their young MLB position players. They can’t afford to deal any of the few regarded pitching prospects in their system and simply offering top OF prospect Eloy Jimenez and/or 3B Jeimer Candelario might not get the job done.
The Cubs can certainly try acquiring a shorter term starter or rental with their positional prospects but it would behoove them to trade for a more controllable arm with both Jake Arrieta and John Lackey as pending FA’s following this season.
Eloy is definitely good enough to headline a package for one of the cost controlled TOR starters. The secondary prospects might be a little more difficult to come up with if they don’t want to move any pitching prospects. That being said, giving up a top pitching prospect will sting a LOT less if/when they get someone with a ton of cheap team control left. Add to that their most recent draft class that was pretty much all pitching, and I don’t think they’ll be missing whoever they give up.
Toronto won’t be sellers.
Top Of the Rotation, not Toronto lol.
The Cubs top pitching prospect and the only one capable of returning a young controllable top of the rotation starter along with Jimenez is Dylan Cease. The Cubs are not trading his power arm in any potential deal I can fathom.
The Cubs won’t be “missing” Cease simply because he is going nowhere.
Would it work if the Cubs were constantly retooling? Say Arrieta turns it around a bit and a team is willing to pay a decent haul for a rental and then the Cubs also make a deal for an Archer, Gray or Cole to replace him while also using prospect depth to get another rental or maybe a possibly near-MLB ready piece from said Arrieta deal.
What does Arrieta fetch in July?
What does Davis fetch in July?
Don’t worry. Nobody else likes those questions, either.
However, that’s how they could retool.
Or, roll with an 8 or so percent chance in October, if they get there. And get draft picks only for Wade and Jake.
Cubs want to be contenders for a long time. So good question . If arrieta got you 2 future young starting pitchers and wade Davis got you one it would be something to look at. Throw off this year and come back strong next year and years to come . Resign Davis for next year like Yankees did with chapman .
Carl Edwards is their future closer, not Davis
I guess my major question here is with market potentially flooded with starters why would a team part with MiLB talent for Arrieta if he continues to struggle? Davis makes sense to substantial package. But then again we’re operating under the assumption the Cubs will sell. That’s extremely hard to see.
The market is “flooded”?
Since two AL teams are selling, and about nobody wants anyone from the 6 selling NL teams.
Eh. Edwards is more of a great setup guy. A closer needs to have at least some sort of intimidation factor. Edwards just doesn’t have that. When you look at Wade Davis, he’s intimidating — even though he doesn’t really throw that hard, his stuff is off the charts, and he has that “look.” Same with Chapman. Those are closers. There’s a psychology to it, as well.
Why would you trade either of them? Arrieta has had his struggles. Davis has only allowed 2 runs and one was some judy hitter with a very lucky stab at the ball homerun with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. He’s 15/15 in saves and has 2 wins too.
You don’t trade them you try to rr-signs them. Davis for 2 years. Arrieta is not getting 7 years from anyone. Unless he wins 20.game in the 2nd half. No pitcher should ever get 7 years. At most they should get 5 years with options from both sides. That includes incentives.
You NEVER trade a guy like Arrieta in the middle of a playoff push! EVER! The Cubs want to repeat and Arrieta gives them the best chance of doing that.
Never is a long time.
It depends on the return.
Archer and his 3.8 ERA after his bad year last year? Archer is not an ace. Cole with his 4.54 ERA means he is not getting traded as the Bucs will not sell low and doubt they would trade him to the Cubs? Sonny Gray is not pitching well after stinking last year so why would the Vuns trade for him? Quintana? He is no ace either and the Sox are not trading him to Cubs but for a big overpay.
The Cubs will be lucky if the adverse impact on their pitchers is limited to this one year. Just ask the Mets…
The Mets are a poor example of standard injuries.
Said this exact thing about Hand in an article 3 weeks ago and nobody seemed to agree.
“It’s not one deal. Miller, Chapman, Wil Smith, all of those lefty relievers got back top 100 prospects in deals at last year’s deadline. While Cecil and Dunn got handsomely paid in the offseason. Miller is only being compared because of the control he had when he was dealt, knowing that you don’t only get one year of him increases what will come back in return, because if Washington doesn’t make it to the World Series they get to regroup in the offseason and try again next year with Brad Hand in the fold again on a super cheap contract to boot.
Shoot even if you want to compare the Wil Smith deal to a potential Hand deal, SF gave up Phil Bickford who was the games 50th rated prospect at the time Andrew Susac so seeing Brad Hand bring back more than that wouldn’t be unrealistic.”
The best comp for a Wil Smith trade would be, Brad Hand to WSH for Fedde #51 prospect compared to Bickford who was #50 last year and Severino who would be the comp to Susac in the trade.
I see the logic, but disagree about the players. I am not sure that the rankings really capture the character flaws in Bickford. He was drafted 10th overall and did not sign. He has been suspended for 50 games. Frankly, he’s nearly 22 and hasn’t pitched, but a half season in A+ or above. There is just more risk associated with a player like this than prospects in the high minors. Bickford isn’t even on the top 100 this year. His prospect status last year was built on a very small track record.
Next 7 or so games determines what the pirates do. 7 division games against the brewers and cards. If they win both series they will be with in spitting distance of 500 and also the division lead. If they get beat up hard going something like 2 and 5 in those games then they’ll be open to Cole, Cutch, Harrison, cervelli, etc… and anyone else who can bring in young projectable talent.
if they come out a head just another sign to hang on to what you got.. by some miracle they make the play offs Marte cannot play in them so they’d need someone like cutch.
Right now, could just be because i’m made at his play lately but I’d consider shopping Polanco over Cutch… Polanco is giving me tabata flash backs lol (some sarcasm there its not that crazy but some similarities)
Polanco’s improvement is limited by his being a bit of a dummy. Mostly.
Still, if he ever figures it out, he’d be a top 20 player. Can’t give up on a guy like that just yet.
I honestly don’t know where they get then idea that trading McCutchen isn’t waving the white flag on the 2017 season. Like, trading Melancon indeed was waving the white flag in 2016 and for the A’s, trading Cespedes in 2014. There are certain players you just don’t trade if your goal is to win NOW.
Wow u come up with that all on your own?
You didnt link melancon or use his last name even though you hadnt used him earlier in the article
I’d bet the Brewers would deal Susac and Bickford for Hand right now.
Sure the brewers would lol. Neither has half the value they had. Bickfords suspended and susac isnt hitting in triple A.
Luis Ortiz and Mauricio Dubron are what the brewers could give up to mimic a will smith type deal.
Not buying the bit about Jake being tired. Joe did lots of resting down the stretch and including the postseason, he had 220 total innings last year. About a normal regular season total for a pitcher that made all his starts.
I am not buying that either. Its just an excuse
Why would even consider trading Contreras? Schwarber for the right pieces thats fine. But he can bring in more than a relief pitcher. Schwarber and a prospect for archer and a reliever. Shame that it would take a player like Schwarber to sell tix for the rays.