Barring a “miracle,” Justin Verlander will remain with the Tigers through this Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline, sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the chief sticking point is Verlander’s contract, which pays him $28MM a season through 2019. Potential trade partners “want no part” of that contract, Heyman writes.
I wrote about the complexities of a potential Verlander deal earlier this week, noting Verlander’s contract, age (34) and underwhelming 2017 performance (4.50 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 124 innings). The Cubs have been the team most frequently connected to Verlander, and they could conceivably afford him, but his contract remains an issue. To facilitate a deal, the Tigers likely would either have to take on a significant portion of the contract, settle for a very modest talent return, or both. In addition, Verlander has a full no-trade clause. Heyman suggests Verlander could clear waivers, making an August trade a possibility, but he’s more likely to be dealt next winter.
Honestly, as a Tigers fan, I hope he doesn’t get traded. He is a legend in Detroit. Very few players play their entire career with one team. I really hope he can be one of them. I want to watch this HOF pitcher battle for 3000 innings and 3000 k’s. That is definitely worth the price of a ticket for me.
Not a hall of famer to me. Great pitcher but not elite.
He’s not a HOF yet, but he definitely has the inside track.
Please tell me how he isn’t elite……
Lol
Pfff…ok pal.
Ha!!!!
Um…duh? Trading Verlander has always been an extreme long-shot. No one is going to pay that contract and give up prospects. Even if the Tigers ate half the money—doubt they would—teams still are reluctant to give up blue-chip talent for a 34 year old. Why would any team give the Tigers the prospects they’d desire to pay down the contract when they could probably get Sonny Gray? Makes no sense. The only teams that could make it work would be a team with a deep farm system (the Yankees or Braves come to mind), and acquire him for one of their lesser ranked prospects (8-10ish) if the Tigers eat half the money. But otherwise no way does it make sense for either side.
Personally, I think you’re over-exaggerating. Verlander is a better pitcher than Grey. If the Tigers eat half the money (which I haven’t heard a single report saying they would eat that much), he would get a better return than Grey would. With Grey, you’re generally looking at two top organizational prospects, so in the case you just stated, the return would be very significant for Verlander.
But, as I think we both agree, Tigers won’t eat that much money, and probably won’t trade him without a pretty significant return, so he is unlikely to be traded.
I agree that Verlander is a better pitcher and better bet in October, than Gray, and if things were equal he’d be worth more on the trade market. However, two things dramatically impact his value. 1) The contract…even if the Tigers eat half, teams are still looking at paying more than double what Gray will cost (considering he’s arbitration eligible for the next two years) 2) His age. Verlander is getting up there in years, and that tends to scare teams more than the inconsistency that Gray has shown.
If you were GM of a team and you had the option to trade 1 semi decent prospect for Verlander, and pay him more than $30M over the next 2.5 years, or trade 2 semi decent prospects (A’s aren’t getting a huge overpayment for Gray) for Gray, pay him about $20-$25M over the next 2.5 years, and have the first right to negotiate with 30 year old potential free agent?
In any case I don’t believe the Tigers will pay anywhere near that much money, so the cost to take Verlander would skyrocket toward, and likely passed, $50M.
I agree with everything you said. I thought Gray would at least be getting around 10-12 million in arbitration by now. Considering he’s only being paid 3.5M this year, that makes him worth more than Verlander at 14M.
The age part is hard, and all things equal, I’d rather have the younger player. However, with Verlander, he hasn’t really had a steady decline at all. 2016 was one of his best years, and 2017 we’ve seen an increase in velocity and more movement on his offspeed pitches (which is why, in my opinion his BB/9 took a hit this year). It’s just weird that so many people dismiss him because he’s getting old.
One more factor is that he has great mechanics and such a repeatable delivery. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me to still see him pitching when he’s 37, much like a lackey or hill.
I’d have to disagree. Baseball is a “what have you done for me recently” sport. Verlander’s peripherals have trended downward over the last few seasons (excluding 2016) which should be expected with age but Gray’s performance and age make him much more valuable than Verlander right now. That is without mentioning that Gray is controllable for much less money even if the Tigers did pay half of his contract. In essence, Gray is going to command a much better haul because he is essentially more desirable than Verlander in every way.
Why would you exclude 2016? You realize he had core muscle surgery right before the start of the 2014 season and was still recovering during the first half of 2015. If anything those two years should be exclouded.
Exactly. You can’t exlude 2016. And in the second half of 2015 he looked CY young caliber as well (after he was finally healthy).
“Over-exaggerating”: when exaggerating is not enough
Exactly. Exaggerating is expected and acceptable on the internet. Over-exaggerating is when you crossed the line.
lol
Best for all concerned. Verlander is a legend in Detroit and probably should stay for his final two guaranteed years and perhaps a third when he will be 37 with an unlikely vesting option of $22MM for 2020. He’s a sure bet HOF pitcher whose albatross of a contract would give the Tigers little in any prospect currency as they look to rebuild in the coming offseason.
Come the 2019/2020 offseason more will be known about JV’s ability and desire to continue his career. If he request a trade during a Detroit rebuild then the Tigers can always accommodate his wishes.
Verlander’s been very good, but he’s still got a ways to go before he’s a “sure bet” for the HOF. There are many pitchers with better numbers that aren’t in the HOF (Schilling and Mussina immediately come to mind).
Not sure he is a sure bet for the HOF. He needs to notch a couple of really good years to be as good as Mussina and Schilling. And they’re still waiting to be inducted. King Felix is in the same boat.
agreed. He’s not a sure fire HOF yet, but he has the inside track. The MVP really helps his case.
Having an MVP does not mean anything as far as getting into the Hall of Fame.
I couldn’t disagree more. I would argue the award definitely does mean something for getting into the hall. What makes you say it doesn’t?
The baseball writer’s association are the voters, and emotion/memory bias absolutely has influence on their decision.
If a contending team suffers a significant injury to the rotation he’ll still be available. Adding that much money is more of an offseason move anyway. The Tigers get more realistic in their asking price bc no team is giving up top prospects & taking on the contract. They need to take him off the market if that’s their asking price so everyone can stop having to hear all the talk daily.
Yeah he will easily clear waivers in August
“…so everyone can stop having to hear all the talk daily.”
Comes to a site specifically for baseball rumors, tires of hearing baseball rumors.
IMHO it may be time for Verlander to pull a Dennis Eckersley/ John Smoltz and try his hand at closing.
funny… people said the same thing in 2015, the year before he finished 2nd in the AL for CY Young
For all those saying Verlander is a sure HOF’er, recent HOF voting shows almost no one a sure HOF’er. Still, one of the more elite pitchers in recent history HOF or not. He still IMO needs to finish his next couple of seasons in Detroit strong to improve his chances.
But $56M over two years? No surprise why there is little market for him. Even if he were pitching a lot better Tigers would have to eat some of that to move him. I don’t see him getting traded from Detroit unless they change their tune on eating some of that contract.
Very next report on Verlander will be that he’s been traded. That’s how these go every year-One minute, so and so isn’t being traded, then the next is the team has changed their direction and will be trading so and so, and it typically will flip flop a few times before said player is traded. Example is Texas and Darvish-That changed how many times this week alone?! Definitely a fun time of the year for sure if you’re a baseball fan.
So I guess Justin’s not Verlanding anywhere but Detroit…and even that is a stretch.
*crickets*
Good. It’s obvious Verlander is under appreciated outside of Detroit. It’s surprising since he bumped the A’s out of the playoffs three times and the Yankees three times. But oh well. There will be playoff teams regretting not having him.
The 2 year $28MM contract is actually a little light considering King Felix is on a 2 year $27 MM deal, Grienke over $34 MM for 4 more years, Price over $31 MM for 5 more years and Scherzer an average of $37 MM per for the next 4 years. But I can surely see why only a few teams can afford him and the teams that can are reluctant to trade top prospects for him and pay the salary.
Keep him until after the 2018 season at least. He has value to the Tigers keeping baseball interesting in Detroit until the team is retooled. Don’t do a complete tear down.
game 5 in Oakland was insane. One of the most clutch pitching performances I have seen.
And I doubt they do a complete fire sale or tear down. A lot of the current Tigers just don’t have enough outside value to do that.
Agree on the outside value. I know I am alone in this but I don’t believe a rebound is not totally out of the question if Upton, Verlander and JWilson stay. It might be better to wait a year or year and a half to sell. I would be fine if Avila were the only one traded at the deadline.
The Tigers’ roster isn’t that bad, its just that they have been missing depth since 2014. A rebound wouldn’t be completely out of the question if the AL is in a similar position next year.
I still hope they trade wilson because I think they can get a everyday player out of him, which could help a rebound regardless. Plus relievers are so volatile from year to year.
I get it. It’s just after years of bullpen suffering I would like to see what a pen built around JWilson, Greene and Jimenez could do for a staff of Verlander, Fulmer, Zimmerman, Norris and Boyd.
I think you could get just as much for JWilson next year as this year with more closing experience. I believe in him but it is a risk.
And yet, nobody seems to arguing that he would not clear waivers. If he was still pitching at ace levels this would not even be a question.
I am not arguing because I think Scherzer would clear waivers and he is pitching at an elite level.
Scherzer’s contract is bizarre and hugely expensive after next year. If the Nationals were paying his insane deferred money he’d be claimed in a flash. We should all know legitimate aces are pulling down around $30m per these days.
@BlueSkyLA
Max will be a 34 year old pitcher next year making 35M for the next 3 years. No way he gets claimed. That doesn’t mean he isn’t good, just like Verlander (probably) not getting claimed doesn’t mean Verlander isn’t good.
Kind of what I said, but Scherzer’s contract is even worse than what you say, from either a waiver claim or trading standpoint. They are paying him $30m a year for seven years, but only half that much for the seven years of the contract and the balance over the seven years after. It is so massively backloaded that he can’t be claimed off waivers and it also makes a pretty significant poison pill for any potential trade. Had he been paid $30M a year, straight up, somebody would claim him off waivers, because that’s what aces get paid now, if not more.
No comparison to Verlander, who is being paid ace money for journeyman work. The reasons why neither would be claimed off waivers are completely different.
He had another great start today. Looks like his adjusments have been paying off since the second half:
3.26 ERA and 10.2k/9, and those numbers are not including today’s 6 innings, 6ks, 0ER performance today.
Your view of Verlander really contrasts with my own. You see a journeyman on the last leg of his career; I see an above average pitcher who could very well pitch until he’s 37 or 38.
Games that happened four years ago don’t impact games that will happen in the future. Verlander is not the same pitcher he was when the Tigers were in the World Series
who said he was?
The Tigers front office was delusional to begin with, thinking they could get a team to take that contract and get top prospects in return. Avila has no idea what the hell hes doing.
Please, if you have a link, please show us exactly where he said that?
All reports I’ve heard said that the Tigers would be willing to eat money on the deal to get better prospects.
Delusional is a silly word to use when A: Avila never actually said that, and B: there have been so many varying reports about a Verlander trade.
If you could buy a player ranked in the top 50 in MLB what would you have to pay?
Yoan Moncada was paid roughly 80M (40 to Yoan, 40 to tax). So I would assume most prospects are worth less than that because he’s #1 right now.
Compete spitball here, but…. 25-40M for your average top 50 prospect?
It will be interesting to see what stats a pitcher needs to obtain to get into the HOF in the 2020’s. If Verlander pitches another 3-4 years he might reach 62 WAR. Combine that with a possible 10 wins per season he could come close to 220 wins. 1 Cy Young and a MVP. Comparisons WAR and wins wise would put him in the John Smoltz. Smoltz also accumulated 150+ saves and, so far, a better ERA while pitching throughout the steroid era.