In recent seasons, the veteran-laden Tigers have frequently headed into the summer as trade deadline buyers, but with a 45-55 record this year and J.D. Martinez already out the door, 2017 looks like a different story. One star who could be on the move is Justin Verlander, who joins a starting pitching market that also includes Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. The Tigers have a variety of other players potentially available, including Ian Kinsler, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila, and they’ve reportedly discussed package deals, so if the Tigers trade Verlander, it could be along with one or more of his teammates.
That’s not to say a Verlander trade would be easy. It’s impossible to discuss the righty’s potential market without noting his contract — he’s making $28MM per season through 2019, plus a $22MM vesting option for 2020. That option contains no buyout and only vests if Verlander finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2019, but the $66MM or so remaining on Verlander’s contract is still a significant obstacle. At last check, the Tigers did not appear willing to take on a significant portion of Verlander’s deal, though they reportedly would pay the remainder of his 2017 salary. His full no-trade clause could present another potential problem.
And then there’s Verlander’s performance — he finished second in AL Cy Young balloting just last season but has taken a big step backwards this year, with a 4.50 ERA and 8.7 K/9 over 124 innings, plus a 4.1 BB/9 that’s almost twice as high as it was in 2016. At 34, that’s a serious concern, particularly when considered alongside his hefty contract. That means the Tigers might not get much if they trade him. Also, his star status in Detroit might not ordinarily be an impediment, but it might be in this case, since, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently pointed out, fans might react poorly to a Verlander deal for a limited return.
With all that in mind, here are a few potential landing spots for Verlander.
Cubs: Even after acquiring Jose Quintana, the Cubs are known to have interest in starting pitching, and Verlander would give them another veteran arm to help them manage the possible losses of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency next winter. They’ve reportedly scouted Verlander and have discussed him with the Tigers, and they’re one of only a handful of teams who clearly could afford him. They’re also reportedly interested in acquiring a catcher, so perhaps there could be a deal involving both Verlander and Avila, particularly since Avila makes a mere $2MM and has been productive this season. The intensity of the Cubs’ interest in Verlander is unclear, and as with all teams, his contract will be an obstacle.
Astros: Houston has been connected to Verlander, along with Wilson, although the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech characterized the Astros’ level of involvement in Verlander trade talks as “minimal.” The team’s recent return to health, with Collin McHugh returning from injury and Dallas Keuchel set to come back this week, might make the Astros more likely to pursue top-end starters rather than innings eaters, since they currently have enough reliable arms to fill out their rotation. Their interest in Verlander, then, might depend on whether they still see him as an ace-type pitcher. Verlander’s contract would of course be a factor as well, although the Astros do appear to have the payroll flexibility to add him, particularly if the Tigers are willing to pay what’s left of his 2017 salary.
Yankees: The Yankees have been connected to a variety of rotation possibilities and could potentially afford Verlander, although their luxury-tax bill is a concern. They haven’t recently been connected to Verlander in particular, though, and based on published reports, seem to have greater interest in Gray. They also have a clear need for another A’s veteran, Yonder Alonso, which might give them further incentive to continue talking with Oakland. Verlander could, however, represent an interesting alternative to Gray whose acquisition likely wouldn’t cost the Yankees top prospects.
Dodgers: L.A. has repeatedly been connected to Darvish, while there haven’t been many indications they’re seriously interested in Verlander. Still, they have an injured ace (Clayton Kershaw), and their seemingly wide-open wallet would give them a big advantage if they decided they had serious interest.
Nationals: The Nats haven’t been strongly connected to Verlander, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently indicated that they aren’t in on Gray or Darvish. Injuries to Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross have left them with some rotation questions, however, and they generally aren’t shy about adding big-name players. They’ve also been connected to Wilson.
Brewers: Milwaukee has reportedly shown interest in Verlander, along with other rotation options. The Brewers have also been connected to Wilson and Kinsler, again raising the possibility the Tigers could strike some sort of package deal. And the Brewers under owner Mark Attanasio have never been shy about adding big-name pitching as they’ve prepared for past stretch runs, adding CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke in past seasons in which they contended. All that written, it seems especially unlikely that they would consummate a deal for Verlander. His age and salary could potentially pose big problems for a generally budget-conscious organization (although one with few long-term commitments at the moment). And the Brewers’ 2017 run at the NL Central title, while impressive, has if anything been a pleasant surprise from a team that seemed to be rebuilding. They recently fell into second place, behind the Cubs, and their fade might make them less likely to make a big move.
Rockies: Acquiring Verlander would be a break from the Rockies’ M.O., but they’ve shown interest in rotation upgrades and have limited payroll obligations beyond 2017, so Verlander could theoretically be a fit. They have enough interesting young arms to fill out their rotation, but could potentially benefit from a veteran anchor. Of course, it’s not clear that Verlander is the right veteran anchor for them, given his contract, fly-ball tendencies and sketchy 2017 performance thus far. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would accept a deal that would place him in Coors Field, a stadium that could potentially hurt his future earning power.
Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have already swung one big trade with the Tigers, and there have at least been whispers about the possibility they could look to improve their rotation. Most current rumors about the Snakes focus on other areas, however, and all five of their current starters have performed capably this year.
Red Sox: Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to headline-grabbing trades, and he was general manager of the Tigers when Detroit drafted Verlander in 2004. With Eduardo Rodriguez’s recent return to health, though, the Red Sox five healthy starting pitchers who each could potentially pitch well for the remainder of the season, and most rumors about the team since their acquisition of infielder Eduardo Nunez have pertained to relievers, not starters.
Mariners: The M’s have been connected to Gray, and the odds that Jerry Dipoto will find a way to insert them into a significant trade can never fully be discounted. They are, however, below .500 at this point and already have big salaries for Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz on the books for 2018.
Royals: Kansas City has been on the lookout for starting pitching, although the Royals have mostly been connected to lower-tier options like Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia (plus Trevor Cahill, who they already acquired). It would seem extremely unlikely that they’d take on Verlander’s contract, given their uncertain future as an organization and the fact that their 2017 payroll is already the highest they’ve ever had.
Indians: The back of the Indians’ rotation has struggled, although Danny Salazar’s recent return to health helps them in that regard, and trading for a pitcher with Verlander’s salary would be out of character for them.
Braves: The Braves look like longshots at best to acquire Verlander at the deadline, since they aren’t contending, and they recently traded a veteran arm in Garcia. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would be willing to accept a trade to a below-.500 team. If the Braves do acquire someone of Verlander’s ilk, that might be more likely to happen in the offseason. They’ve been connected to a variety of controllable veteran starters, however, and have enough money coming off the books next year that they could theoretically afford him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Since the big contract he’s not the same pitcher anymore.
except last year when he should have won the CY… and his basically all of July this year….
Last year in the AL there was no clear winner for the Cy Young award. Between Verlander, Porcello,and Kluber there was no player you could point to as the definite winner. Even just coming down to Verlander versus Porcello, every argument could be matched by a different one. Watch: Verlander had a better ERA, WHIP and more K’s… but Porcello had a better ERA +, less walks, and less home runs allowed. Frankly Porcello won because he was the least worst option which is part of the point of a voting system based on point valued ranking.
So please, stop the complaining. It’s officially ancient since both are having lousy seasons.
What does walks and hr allowed have to do with porcelain winning? Verlander walked more and allowed more hr and still had a better era. Meaning he let less gus score. That’s wayyy more significant than rick porcellos walk bs.
Rick sucks. Dombrowski didn’t even wanna give rick that big contract so he traded him to boston..he knew rick wasn’t worth 20 million a year and he isnt.
Rick is an a little above average and never should have won a Cy young. That is laughabLe
The funny thing is they have mirrored each other in terms of WAR he last two years Rick and Justin lol.
A single piece of data does not explain everything. You’re touting ERA but: 1) That’s a single stat, basing an entire argument on that is just silly. 2) Their ERAs were, I believe, 0.06 points apart making the ERA argument alone weak. 3) As I said, Porcello had a higher ERA+ which takes into account park factors and league factors suggesting Porcello did better under his conditions than Verlander did.
Now, that’s just on ERA, which is part of my overall point. There was no clear winner last year in the AL. Thus the reason for a voting system based on ranking. If you’re really think this award is injustice then I’d suggest you go through the history of baseball. You’ll find far more contentious points than the Porcello/Verlander argument of 2016. This one doesn’t even break the top 1,000.
ERA+ is a hypothetical stat. Shouldn’t count towards an end of the year award when all baseball is stopped. JV should have won it, not Rick.
Since the big contract? JV has had a big contract for quite some time now hoss
A lot of miles on the odometer. Even the HOFers wear down eventually.
Yeah Nolan Ryan was a shell of himself after 27 years.
Nolan is the exception, not the rule.
Al Avila, you better not f-this up. You have a chance to shed a lot of JVs salary for the next 2+ years. Don’t get greedy like my fellow Tiger fans and think you can an elite prospect for him unless you’re picking up a serious portion of that bloated deal.
Thank you for being realistic. As much as I’ve loved watching Verlander over the years, he’s not worth a Verdugo or a Kyle Tucker. I’d love to see Avila pick up more than half of Verlander’s contract, package him with Wilson and pick up 2-3 prospects for them.
Covering half of his contract? You’d certainly get at least 1 top 100 player return. What are you smoking?
What’s the point of shedding payroll? They aren’t gonna spend it
And they won’t be dropping ticket prices next year.
Because for years the Tigers have overspent their market so to speak and now that Mr I isn’t around anymore to blindly throw bad contracts at players, this is the opportunity they have needed to press reset as much as they can. Deal JV. Deal Kinsler. Deal Alex Avila. Deal jwilson. Hope that j-up opts out. Etc. you get the drift. 200 million payroll for a Detroit baseball team is absurd.
Uh, ok. There is no salary cap buddy. Do you know what tigers revenue is?
You just wanna dump.a good player to get rid of his salary?
And how exactly does that help the tigers win?
Diehard tigers fan that wants to trade a good player to dump salary and then is left with crap on the roster???
Again, how does dumping salary help the tigers win?
It simply doesnt, unless you’re going to go out and spend it in free agency
If you think the Tigers have a chance to win in the next 5 years you’re delusional. They have the 25th ranked farm system and their most valuable trade asset at the ML level outside of Fulmer is a left handed relief pitcher. Why pay JV when the organization has no chance of winning certainly in the next 2+ years of his deal. And if money isn’t a concern like you think it is because I guess the Tigers print money, then why are the Tigers shedding payroll to begin with. For the hell of it? And please don’t call me buddy.
Why get rid of a good player for nothing?
Doesn’t matter if they don’t have a chance at winning. You dont give things with value away with nothing to back it up.
Btw, the tigers have 42 million coming off books after this year. That’s plenty.
Maybe they need a new owner if all they wanna do is dump salary, get nothing back for a good player, and are terrible.
You simply don’t give a good player away for salary dunp. It’s foolish
Shed payroll and let verhagen pitch….that’s the plan?
Hahaha. You’re an idiot
Why not cover part of verlanders contract and get some good prospects back?
There..issue is now solved and tigers have a better future
Use your head
Part of JVs value or lack thereof is his age, the season he’s having overall and his bloated contract. You act like the guy has a Chris sale contract with #s to match. He doesn’t. To question me being a die hard because I want to see this roster imploded is insulting. This team has a shaky rotation after Fulmer, a Jekyll and Hyde bullpen and boring everyday lineup of guys who play spotty D and are terrible baserunners. That’s what I’ve seen this team become. Do you watch this tigers team play?
Why the insults. Are you a 12 year old. I haven’t insulted you just disagreed with you and gave you my reasoning why.
Uh, of tigers cover half of his contract they’ll get good young players in return and can rebuild faster.
Giving him away ain’t happening. If it was, cubs, astros, or dodgers would already have traded for him if all it took was to cover his contract.
The tigers arent just trying to dump salary.
Read my post earlier on this thread “buddy”
Btw, if you’ve watched tigers you’d know verlander is still very good.
And the Tigers have no choice but to eat some of his deal or A) they won’t deal him or B) if they do, they’re not getting anything if significance in return
Still very good? Ehhhh. Why? Oh because his velocity is at it highest in years. Let’s ignore his walk rate is over 4 lol. his command and secondary pitches have been abysmal this year. Numbers don’t lie.
It would have to be quite a bit of the contract.
Tigers aren’t getting anything for avila or kinsler. Nothing thay good anyways.
Justin wilson should bring back something good. Verlander would if tigers would eat salary on his contract.
Btw, if they cover half.of his contract, they only have to cover it for 2 years. Then they’ll have cheaper guys for 4-6 years. Covering half would mean the team that gets him only pays 14m per year for 2 years. Good luck getting something better on free agent market.
It’s a net win and offers you a shot at rebuilding faster.
But, yeah, just give him away…..
Just foolish.
2.77 era over last 4 starts.
Also, he knows hes playing on a non contending team. Why kill himself? I mean, his financial incentive Is gone. Only reason to pitch great is to win, and he knows he has no shot this year in detroit. In fact, all the tigers players had this in their heads since winter.
When did I ever say give him away. I said trade him. They aren’t winning the next 2+ seasons.
4 game sample size. Nuff said. If it was just that easy he’d already be a cub or dodger etc. you doin like most of these douche Tiger fans who didn’t show up til 2006 and just expect mgmt to fire up a blank check book. News flash, it ain’t happening anymore. Their owner died.
Yeah. Trade him. How do you suppose they do this? If you don’t cover a nice chunk of his contract yoI’ll get some crappy a A ball player that won’t see the major roster in 20 lifetimes
Here’s a number for you. Out of 150 MLB starters he is tied for 21st ,in quality starts, ahead of Grienke who is making $34MM That is not horrible performance or a bloated contract. It falls within the standard deviation of elite pitchers over their careers. Nobody performs at Cy Young level every month of every year. He had three terrible starts that skewed his averages. If you don’t get a really good return, keep him until you do. Why pay a bunch of money for a great pitcher to not pitch for you?
Agreed. Eat the contract and restock your farm. You are essentially buying prospects through trades rather buying veterans on the market.
If any rumor is true about rumors linking Wilson with a kinsler or JV then we know this team only wants to shed payroll. I’d like some nice prospects in return but this organization hasn’t produced a stud position player since Granderson. And no one in Detroit trusts Al Avila to make the correct moves to start the rebuild.
Exactly. You’re buying prospects that you’ll have control over for more years than you’re covering verlanders contract.
If the tigers owner is that stupid and cheap, then they need a new one.
At the end of the day why spend the payroll you save on more overpriced old vets. That’s what got the tigers into this mess to begin with. They are the AL version of the Phillies from a few years back minus the WS title
Linking wilson and kinsler would not kill Wilson’s trade value. Kinsler is still good and only has 1 more cheap option year on his deal. Lumping in verlander would be stupid and avila should be fired, unless they get something good back.
They’re owner just died this off season. Do u even know that?
Exactly what I’m saying. Best would be to trade verlander and cover a chunk of his salary. That will allow you to get some good prospects back. Basically in this case you’re buying young players
Avila should be fired anyways he botched the JD trade. He coulda gotten that same deal on July 31 yet felt the need to do it on July 21. And don’t get me started abt the free agents he signed 2 off seasons ago. J-Up, Zimmermann, Lowe and Pelfrey. Only thing of substance he did was get Wilson off the NYY.
Mike wasn’t really running day-to-day stuff anyways. His family was, and that’s who is running it now. Let’s just say, if they make a bad move here, I doubt they will have support of detroit fans in the new red wings arena.
My entire point is they need to start over. Ain’t nobody worth a damn on this roster outside of Fulmer.
Hockey and MLB are apples and oranges. Example 1A: tv deals
Mahtook. Castellanos. Shane greene. Betting upton opts out.
And yes Mr I wasn’t running the day to day but who do you think green lighter the MASSIVE contract they gave J-Up? It was still HIS money. Now it’s how kids money and the days of out of control payrolls are gone for the near future.
I’m just saying most tiger fans are wings fans..if they see tugers just dumping payroll that won’t sit well with fan base
What about mahtook nick and Greene? Those guys are role players lol. Those are your 2-4 best players so to speak?? Cmon man
Well, yes, at this pointo they won’t be spending big because you’re throwing good money at bad money. After they get a young nucleus intac, if they need a key free agent to win the world series I’d bet they’d go get one
They don’t care as long as the Wings win. And that could be awhile because they’re a train wreck too
Most rebuilds take longer than a few years. Especially when the Tigers literally have no position player ready for the bigs. christin Stewart is the best and he’s at Erie right now
You don’t think those fans care if the tigers win or not? JudgING by how upset you are that the tigers aren’t winning this season, I’d bet tigers fans are as disgusted as you
Guys go from AA to MLB all the time and can do well
Name me a tiger who has done that. I’ll wait. And I don’t watch the wings. That’s a stupid comment to make. Wings fans root for hockey and yes I’m sure there’s a good number of them that are Tigers fans. When the Tigers stunk for so long while the wings were good there was no red wing fan backlash. Are you from Michigan at all or just assume you know everything in the area related to sports because some of your comments frighten me
Uh, people are a lot smarter these days
Why wouldn’t the Brewers be interest in Kinsler along with Wilson? Or the Dodgers have interest in a Verlander and Wilson package? Were the Yankees wrong in getting Robertson with Frasier and Kahnle? Sometimes, one stop shopping can be attractive to another team.
Hey eat’em and trader:
Your dating period is over. It’s time to get married and share your bed stories in person.
There is no way the Tigers would ever trade Verlander to a division rival, ever.
I sincerely doubt any other team in the division can afford him.
He should be a Yankee come July 31. I think 2 years at around 28 million each isnt a bad investment for the Yanks. Although he’s struggling this year, i think he’ll be good for them and not to mention, shouldnt cost too much prospect wise.
I hope Braves pass and just sign a free agent. He needs to go to a contender and win a ring he’s done well enough he deserves it
If the Braves and Tigers work out something that brings BOTH Verlander and Fulmer to Atlanta then I can live with it.
What about a similar tradeto what Atlanta did with Bourn/Swish/Johnson?
Verlander for Kemp and Markakis
In the end Atlanta only takes on 9 more million. I know it probably sounds stupid and most will push for more.
You can’t rebuild with Kemp and Markakis. Verlander is still the face of the franchise, and sells tickets.
True, but but Markakis comes off the books before Verlander. In essence Atlanta took on more payroll to take Bourn and Swisher to rid themselves of CHRIS Johnson’s extra year on the payroll.
I feel the same for the Phillies. Use the payroll room to secure young A+ talent and bring a seasoned, experienced pro to a staff desperate for leadership.
Not going anywhere. Nobody wants him enough.. And they shouldn’t.
If Detroit wants to unload a significant amount of his salary, Philly would be interested if they include a real prospect as well. Odubel for cash Verlander and low level but significant prospect .
Don’t you think Philly got burned bad enoug giving out enormous contracts to finished Bucholz and Hellickson? You really think they will try for a trifecta anve far more to Verlander? The city of brotherly love will riot in the streets and burn management at the stake when verlander further implodes while raking in 56m the next 2 seasons.. it would be sheer madness to take him on after those last 2 failures.
I disagree. I think most fans would understand spending money on V so long as we get top notch talent too. V is still a very good pitcher and brings leadership to a young staff. One thing Philly has right now is payroll space.
How about price ,boegarts ,and jacky Bradley jr for kindler,verlander and Cabrera to Red Sox blow the whole thing up
That’s insane on every level and I’m a die hard Tiger fan. I want what your smoking homey. Or you’re just trolling big time.
Kindler plays soccer for South Africa.
Yeah but his UZR, wRC & BA all suck!
Can’t see the Red Sox. I think Verlander and Eck have a good relationship, so that immediately rules that option out. Surprised that wasn’t considered in the description above.
It’s clear Tigers need to shed some payroll. They’ll pay Fielder & K-Rod 8 mil next yr not to play for them.
Now lets consider they’ll pay Sanchez & Kinsler not to play for them also, another 10mil.
So, 18mil for players not on the roster. Then take Upton & Zimmerman, another 45mil. You’ve got close to 70mil for a bad starting pitcher and an aging of.
If you can’t afford to bring in FA’s then you’ll need to bring up prospects. However, their farm system stinks.
So what can you do? You sale, try to recoup some building blocks and spend some of what you save on cheaper FA’s to float until the farm rebuilds.
Tigers fans think too highly of themselves if they believe there’s another championship in the next 3-4yrs. Sit down and let the Indians dominate for a few yrs, then try to contend with the Whitesox in 4yrs.
That’s just not true. They don’t owe KRod anything after this year. Pelfrey, Lowe, Sanchez, Avila and JD Martinez also all come off after this year. It’s around $42 MM coming off if they do nothing.
Verlander: stay with the Tigers. Face of the franchise. Sign him and give him a chance for a comeback in ’18.
If the Yankees were smart they would build a good enough package but one that includes a bad contract such as Ellsbury. Give a few prospects do money too. The Yankees can afford to pay a portion of his contract if it meant getting verlander and Wilson. Even if it means taking on all of verlanders contract.
Yeah, sounds great for the Yankees…… but why would the Tigers jettison salary in trading Verlander to take on more bad money in another player?
Also….. kind of surprised how many people want Verlander on the team they’re a fan of. Why? Has no one noticed Verlanders complete loss of control this season, walking over 4 batters per 9 innings? They must have missed that 4.50 ERA too. A 4.50 ERA and a pathetic 1.44 WHIP…… and he gets paid $28M a year…… and he’s going to be 35 next year……. no thanks.
They understand the danger in using averages for a small sample size of 21 starts. They see 12 quality starts for a tied for 22nd ranking out of 150 MLB starters. They also see the advantage of an average of 95 mph fastball. They see other elite pitchers like Price, Grienke and Scherzer on longer term contracts through age 36 at $31 MM to $42MM per. They see a CYoung runner up as recently as last year on the rebound after an inconsistent start. They know elite pitchers don’t pitch at elite levels every month of every year. They understand what standard deviation for elite pitchers is.
RSox send Pomerantz and Barnes plus a prospect for Verlander and Wilson.
We need a R Hander to go with Porcello, their only RH starter with more than a handful of ML starts.
We need a L Handed reliever.
No cash attached.
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My guess is DD knows they don’t have what’s needed to go head to head with Astros or Dodgers–I think they go with the cards on the table–Nunez will allow them to DL Bogaerts for his hand and Travis will be brought up so Moreland can DL for his Big Toe.
Sox might be on the outside “playoffs”looking in. Nunez..hahaha
Why would you trade a solid 28 year old SP in Pomeranz who costs 1/6 of what Verlander does, for a 34 year old pitcher on the back end of his career, who is owed a ton of money, and is AWFUL this year and has lost all sense of pitch control in 2017 walking nearly 4.5 batters per 9 innings. Pomeranz has 20 starts this year and a almost a full run lower ERA. Are you trying to get the Red Sox out of 1st in their division and out of the playoffs? Because this is how you get out of 1st in your division and out of the playoffs. Yu Darvish to Boston would make more sense…… and not for Pomeranz either. Idea is to strengthen your team in a trade, not trade a contributing member of your team for hopefully another player who will out-contribute the player you gave up.
If your trade was actually proposed the Tigers would be fools not to take it. They dump a huge contract and get a better, younger major league SP in return in addition to swapping equivalent quality relievers…… AND they get a prospect.. Again, they’d be dumb not to do this. They need to rebuild, but this trade would actually make them better now, and with the prospect, better in the future too – hypothetically – pending on who the prospect is and whether or not they pan out.
Pomerantz & Barnes isn’t enough for Verlander & Wilson. Tigers would be fools to take that package.
Price for Verlander. Makes a lot of sense for both teams.
How? Price has a 2something ERA in July….. his second month of pitching this year. I’d call it “ace-like.” Verlander on the other hand has a 4.5+ ERA, walking over 4 guys per 9 innings, and is owed almost as much money per year as Price. Red Sox doing this IMO make the team worse, not better. Kind of the opposite thing teams contending want to do. Also, the Tigers want to dump Verlander’s salary…… why would they take on MORE salary in Price? Verlander is owed what, $56 million over the 2018 and 2019 seasons……. Price is owed $150+ million for the next 5 seasons. This trade makes NO SENSE for both teams. I think you mistyped that.
Price now has elbow problem. He’s been scratched from his start tonite. This is the 2nd time this season. Detroit doesn’t need that.
So long story short; it’s the Cubs or nobody. Did Al Avila know at the beginning of the shop Verlander project that his age and contract would be issues? Of course, he did. Is it likely that Avila had a plan in place to mitigate these issues? Of course, he does. Was it his idea to openly, protractedly shop the franchise icon and then be okay with keeping him on the team with the understanding that every team in baseball thought Verlander was washed up and over paid? Of course, that would not be good for Avila or Verlander. This all leads to one conclusion- Verlander will be traded even if Detroit as to eat tons of dollars
I hope and pray the Cubs don’t try and get him. Rumor has it though they are the most interested in him, only thing really holding up a deal is their reluctance to take on all of the $56 million owed to him over the next two seasons and Detroit’s unwillingness to throw any cash in the deal.
Also, when you actually look at Verlander’s career numbers it baffles me how he’s got such star power and name recognition. While he does certainly have some stellar years on his resume and a Cy Young to go with one of those said years and 3 other top 3 finishes in Cy Young voting……. he’s got a career 3.52 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. Those are essentially identical to Jose Quintana’s career numbers yet no one really gave Quintana as much love as they do Verlander. It must be the Ks…… no, not really. Verlander for his career strikes out only 1 more guy per 9 innings than Quintana and they both walk the same amount of batters. Difference being Quintana 6 years younger…….. and has years of cheap team control under his belt.
Why am I making this comparison? To illustrate how little the Cubs better be offering for Verlander if they in fact do get him. They gave up two HIGHLY touted prospects to get Quintana, who has 3 years of team control and is much younger than Verlander and puts up similar numbers as Verlander. Verlander is owed a ridiculous amount of money albeit for only 2 seasons, but is on the back end of his career and is having a very mediocre, almost Lackey-like season in 2017. If they are offering up only the likes of, say, Candelario headlining the deal (yeah… he’s their #1 prospect, but let’s be real….. the Cubs system is depleted….. Candelario is a utility player at best IMO) and a dude like Chesny Young and maybe Pierce Johnson……. by all means, chew the $56 million even if you don’t like the taste. Who knows, maybe for the rest of 2017 Verlander pitches like the Verlander who came in 2nd in Cy Young voting last year the rest of the way…… and maybe one of the next 2 seasons (preferably both). A move to the NL can only help his numbers you’d think. In addition to a deal with those names I mentioned I’d also ship out John Lackey. He’s not owed much money the rest of this year, he sucks, and he’d give the Tigers a body to put in the rotation to finish out the year. If THAT is the deal, 2-3 middling prospects and John Lackey for Verlander, then I’d do it. If it’s more, and one of their higher touted pitching prospects are included in the deal….. NO. A Verlander who pitched like last year would be great though…… Lester, Verlander (2016), Quintana, Arrieta, and Hendricks for the rotation…… yes please.
But….. I doubt the Tigers would accept so little for Verlander unless their main objective is to just dump salary….. which I don’t think it is. I think they expect to land as many good prospects for Verlander as the Sox did for Quintana and then some. They want teams to pay for the name that WAS Verlander….. not the Verlander that currently IS. I hope the Cubs aren’t that stupid team to appease this logic of paying for what a pitcher has done in the past and ignore what that player is currently doing. That’s how GMs and Execs get fired….. and rightfully so.
Good commentary. The play with Verlander is a package that includes Justin Wilson and Avila. The Cubs will need a closer and a 3 or 4 starter in 2018. Wilson can fill closer role through 2019 as well as help this year. The back-up catcher is what it is, right? For the Cubs this Verlander thing should be straightforward. He’s a 2 WAR SP – currently the market bears $10M per 1 WAR. That’s $20M per year in salary for Verlander and a couple second tier prospects back to Tigers BUT the Tigers have to offer Wilson to the Cubs for a fair exchange of prospects or additional dollars to help reduce the Tigers “dead” money on Verlander.
Could playing with Max again be a factor in waiving his NTC?
As a Nats fan, I don’t mind Avila, Wilson, JV, and K. Upton for some prospects.
Unless the Tigers get back Robles or Fedde to start they are going to want more than “some prospects” and the only way the Tigers are getting Robles or Fedde is if the Nats take on his entire salary, and we all know with the Lerner’s that taking on money mid-season is out of the question. That’s why there’s been virtually no mention of Verlander to the Nats.
Nats won’t trade Fedde/Robles for an over 30 pitcher in the back end of his career when there’s already 3 pitchers (Stras, Scherzer & Gio) that are pitching better than Verlander anyways.
And as we all know the Nats don’t take on money midseason. This is about as far away from a match as you can possibly get.
“the only way the Tigers are getting Robles or Fedde” I think you meant to say, not getting. I do agree with you. Don’t think Nationals make a trade involving so many players.
You’re clueless in baseball.
Throws David prices July stats bUT fails to mention verlander has a 2.7u era over 4 starts?
Biased much?
Scrubby loser
Verlander WAS a great pitcher but that contract is atrocious for another team to absorb ! I’m not saying he didn’t earn just hard for another team to honor that many years and the amount
Well in this go big or go home scenario how about this-
A fantasy trade with some logic (albeit maybe crazy logic).
Detroit sends Verlander,Upton, Wilson and Fulmer + the rest of JVs salary for this yr.
Atlanta sends back- Julio, Kemp, Kakes, Dansby, Wisler or Blair (their Pick) as ML ready pieces + Allard,Fried, Muller and Demeritte as the Minor league pieces. We’re not including the 2.75 mil from SD and LAD as a small measure to offset future salary.
Moving forward the difference for next yr would be 12.2 mil ish with the swap of contracts and there shouldn’t be another Bartolo situation on the books. So that’s about even for 2018 would be a bit higher for 2019
Det receives salary relief from JV and Jup and gets back 2 pro bats with less contract obligation, plus a solid SP with a minimal price tag for the next 3yrs and another backend guy with cheap control in Wisler or Blair. They all might do a little better in those bigger ballparks in the AL Central. Demeritte could be ready to take over for Kinsler middle of next season.
JV might consider waiving his NTC to come to Atlanta for several reasons-
We’re further along in the process and closer to competing.
Kate would have similar opportunities to LA for work with all of the modeling and movie production companies here in Atlanta.
JV’s salary would go further here against anywhere in CA due to lower taxes and MUCH lower cost of living.
With the Battery at STP we could offer them one of those high floor condos to stay in until they have time to buy where they want.
Just like in Cali, Justin could pretty much play golf yr round here.
We might have to add a sweetner, but hey this could be done. Next yrs rotation could be Fulmer, Folty, JV, Newk, Sims/Dickey pretty solid.
Simply shedding Verlander’s k would be a huge win for the Tigers. The Tigers aren’t going to restock their farm system if/when they trade their veterans. There simply isn’t much surplus value they can trade, most of the k’s are anchors for declining players. These aren’t players in their prime on ridiculously underpaid k’s like the White Sox. Shedding any payroll is a huge win.
If this is the case then I can see the Dodgers perhaps taking Verlander and most (if not all) of his contract along with Wilson, minimizing the need give up as much for either of them. Not that I’d really want to see the Dodgers do this, but it as trade alignments go, it looks right.
You’re an idiot. Shed payroll for what?
What’s that gonna do?
Because at the end of the day it’s a business. Shedding any sort of payroll is profit for the Illitch family who is probably looking to recoup some of the past several years nonsense salaries they have been paying. And no trader ryan I don’t want to be insulted. Other people can have differing opinions than you with out name calling. You act as if the Tigers can deal away a couple of guys and be in contention again in a cpl years. Any idea of how decrepit the Tigers minor league system is outside of Faedo Manning and Burroughs (all SP). Ain’t happenin.
Please don’t feed the troll.
The guy acts like he’s a Tigers insider and doesn’t know jack sh*t.
Shedding salary is not a profit if revenue falls through the floor because the owners field a Triple A team for 8 yearslike the Astros did. It is not a profit if the upcoming tv deal sucks because ratings tank. You are right it is a business. Profit = Revenue-Expenses
Tigers are going through at tough time, trying to unload those bigs salaries. It won’t be easy,they need to bite the bullet and move on over the winter. I don’t see anyone paying full price for Verlander, they may have missed their window with Verlander. Last winter would have been a perfect time to trade him.
Meloni and whoever that other douche bag is on the morning show WEEI are reporting that the Red Sox Will pursue Verlander, because Price is going to miss the rest of the season or longer, personally I don’t think Boston has the pieces to pick up Verlander unless it is a 100% salary dump, as a Red Sox fan I would love to have JV there it just doesn’t make sense though when the offense has been so anemic all season we need a bat
Tigers will have to cover part of the salary to get good.prospects back. This has been said a million times. Salary dump is useless.
I think too many of you guys (and some journalists) are lazily jumping the gun on an aging player’s decline without giving it a second thought. Just because he’s 34 doesn’t mean he’s going to play like he’s 38. If Verlander continues his performance from the second half (or performs like he did just last year), I don’t think it would be surprising to see him finish the year with a 3.30 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP. That holds value. And yes, he’s making 28 million, but if you can get that type of performance with the innings Verlander gives you??
That’s exactly why a lot of teams like the Cubs and Dodgers are even inquiring in the first place.
Another interesting fact:
JV’s first half ERA from 2016: 4.07; his second half ERA of 2016: 1.96
One bad half (or in JV’s case, 3 bad starts) does not define a season guys.