We are now within 24 hours of the trade deadline. Many players have already been moved and most teams have figured out their deadline stances — though, as ever, late-breaking developments can still force a change of plans.
As we enter the home stretch, we thought it’d be interesting to take one final snapshot of the major trade candidates left on the market. As always, the list is compiled with a view to assessing both trade likelihood and trade value (in all its facets). (Note: “LR” = “last ranked.”)
*Note: this post was published at 6:47pm CST on July 30th.
1. Sonny Gray (Athletics) & Yu Darvish (Rangers), SP (LR: 1, 55): These are the top two starters on the market. The controllable Gray looks especially likely to find a new home prior to Monday’s non-waiver deadline, while the Rangers are reportedly telling teams they’re now planning to move Darvish as well. Darvish was shelled in his last outing, but one start is hardly going to torpedo his value. His fastball velocity is strong as ever, and he’s still averaging nearly 10 K’s per nine innings.
3. Addison Reed, RH Reliever, Mets (LR: 2): There’s no better rental asset on the relief market than Reed, who has been a bullpen juggernaut since joining the Mets in 2015 (2.11 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 in 141 innings). He’s still owed about $2.75MM this season.
4. Justin Wilson, LH Reliever, Tigers (LR: 3): With the Nationals, Cubs, Indians, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Brewers, Rockies and Red Sox all prominently linked to Wilson in the past few days alone, it seems impossible to imagine that the Tigers won’t be able to secure a big return for soon-to-be 30-year-old Wilson, whose career year is coming at the perfect time for the Tigers. Detroit’s reportedly looking for an Aroldis Chapman-esque return, though Wilson doesn’t have that track record or historically great velocity.
5. Brandon Kintzler, RH Reliever, Twins (LR: NR): Minnesota’s trade-deadline about-face leaves the team shopping a few assets. None is more clearly a trade chip than Kintzler, a pending free agent who has performed admirably in a late-inning role over the past two years. The sinkerballer is not getting quite as many grounders this year (53.9%) as last (61.9%), and doesn’t get very many swings and misses, but has posted a 2.78 ERA and logged 28 saves this year.
6. Joe Smith, RH Reliever, Blue Jays (LR: NR): Smith made it back from the DL just in time to display that he’s healthy for interested teams. With an affordable $3MM salary and a career-best average of 13 strikeouts per nine innings, he should go to a contender in need of setup help.
7. Alex Avila (Tigers) & Jonathan Lucroy (Rangers), C (LR: 12, 42): There are more catchers available than there are teams looking for help. Avila has been the most productive backstop in the AL this year on a rate basis — we all saw that coming, right? — while Lucroy’s production has tanked. But both figure to be available, and Lucroy was an elite option as recently as last season, so some teams could hope a change of scenery and a new environment proves to be revitalizing. Both are free agents at season’s end.
9. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Athletics (LR: 6): Alonso’s bat has gone cold over the past month, and the number of teams looking for help at first base/DH is even more limited now that the Rays have added Lucas Duda. The Yankees reportedly still have some interest, but they also already picked up Todd Frazier, moving Chase Headley across the diamond.
10. Jed Lowrie, INF, Athletics (LR: 8): It’s been quiet on the Lowrie front, which is surprising since he’s a versatile and affordable player that has slashed .265/.339/.436 while calling spacious O.Co Coliseum home (112 wRC+). He’s also got a cheap club option for the 2018 season. It still seems reasonable to expect that he’ll end up on a contender in need of some bench help.
11. Brad Hand, LH Reliever, Padres (LR: 3): There are increasing indications that the Padres will not drop their high asking price, though Hand’s value is very arguably approaching its apex. There could be some posturing on the Padres’ behalf, but they’ll be able to market him to a wider audience this offseason if they do indeed hang onto him.
12. Zach Britton (LH Reliever) & Brad Brach (RH Reliever), Orioles (LR: 18): It’d be a leap of faith for a team to part with elite prospect to take on Britton when he’s missed most of the season with a forearm injury and hasn’t pitched on consecutive days since being activated. A healthy Britton is one of the best relievers on the planet, but teams won’t know if that’s who they’re getting. Brach, meanwhile, is as steady as ever and is one of the top right-handed options on the market. He seems likelier to move than his teammate, though we’ve yet to hear much chatter.
Click to continue reading the list …
14. Lance Lynn (Cardinals) (LR: 51): Talk of the Cards moving Lynn has steadily increased over the past week, and he’ll be one of the more appealing rentals in a market that doesn’t offer many intriguing options. Lynn is earning $7.5MM this season, so his salary isn’t excessive. But, he’s also already allowed five more homers (21) than he ever has in any full season and has skated by with the game’s second-lowest BABIP (.225). He’s also in his first season back from Tommy John, so interested teams have reason to be wary. And then there’s the fact that the Cards remain in contention; even if they do feel comfortable with internal alternatives, sacrificing pitching depth at this point isn’t exactly a move typical of a contender.
15. Jay Bruce & Curtis Granderson, OF, Mets (LR: 13): Both are firmly available in trades, but it’s a buyer’s market for corner outfield help, and there aren’t that many teams on the lookout for this type of player. It’s possible that the Mets only find a taker for one of the two, particularly given their salaries. Still, each of these productive lefty hitters could provide a real boost to a contender, so they warrant serious deadline consideration.
17. Marco Estrada & Francisco Liriano, SP, Blue Jays (LR: 22): The Jays are fading and these two veterans just aren’t performing. But each comes with his share of upside and would be fairly easy to move (so long as Toronto eats a decent bit of salary) as rental assets. Teams destined for the postseason likely won’t view these pitchers as likely playoff rotation pieces, but more marginal contenders could roll the dice on the talented hurlers.
19. Jim Johnson, RH Reliever, Braves (LR: 31): There has been persistent chatter about Johnson as a possible trade piece, though perhaps no clear indication that Atlanta will be intrigued enough at an offer to move on. He’d be a useful and affordable ($4.5MM) piece for the Braves next year, though that also increases his trade value. Johnson only carries a 4.22 ERA on the year, but has racked up 10.8 K/9 on a career-high 10.0% swinging-strike rate while continuing to induce grounders on half or more of the balls put in play against him.
20. Drew Storen, RH Reliever, Reds (LR: 28): Unless virtually no interest develops, there’s not much of a reason for the Reds to hang onto Storen, who is affordable and having a productive rebound year in the Cincinnati bullpen. While his velocity is down, he could provide a useful middle-relief option for a variety of clubs.
21. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (LR: 36): Reports of late have suggested the Mets anticipate dealing Cabrera, who has drawn interest from teams looking to add an infield option to the mix. Though he isn’t hitting as much as last year and no longer seems to be an everyday choice at short, Cabrera is a switch-hitter who can play anywhere in the infield.
22. Carlos Gomez, OF, Rangers (LR: 47): If Darvish is to be dealt, it only stands to reason that Gomez would also be available. He’s carrying only a league-average-ish .245/.326/.453 batting line on the year and is earning at fairly hefty clip ($11.5MM for the season), and outfield demand is light, so there’s not a ton of value here. But Gomez can still play center while adding value on the bases, so he’s an interesting potential target.
23. Ervin Santana (Twins) & Justin Verlander (Tigers), SP (LR: NR, 25): It’s still tough to get a read on the starting pitching market, but these two are perhaps the most interesting and most available arms after those already mentioned above. Given that it’s less than apparent that either will be moved, though, they land toward the back of the list. While Santana is a late entrant onto the market, he has been evaluated as a trade candidate for quite some time and is surely a known quantity. The Twins will value his affordable remaining year of control, and everyone is aware that the peripherals don’t support his 3.37 ERA, but Santana is a solid workhorse who now seems to be a fairly plausible chip. And Verlander has come on strong of late, bolstering his appeal but perhaps also Detroit’s resolve not to sell low. It’s seen as unlikely that he will be dealt, but teams have scouted him heavily and the Tigers are clearly ready to make a swap if the offer is right. With Jeff Samardzija indicating he isn’t too interested in waiving his no-trade protection, perhaps the top alternative to this duo is the more-affordable but less-accomplished Jhoulys Chacin.
25. Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit & David Hernandez, RH Relievers, Angels (LR: 48): Yep, we’re cheating a bit here with a trio to finish the list. But it’s tough to differentiate between these cheap rental arms, with indications only just emerging that the Halos are willing to listen. Norris has had a few rough outings of late, but he still has racked up nearly a dozen strikeouts per nine innings. Petit is in the midst of the best season of his career and is capable of multi-inning appearances. And Hernandez not only has a 2.29 ERA with the peripherals to match (9.4 /9, 2.0 BB/9, 47.8% groundball rate), but has thus far avoided his usual Achilles heel by keeping the ball in the park all year long.
Disabled List
Nate Jones & Avisail Garcia (White Sox), J.J. Hardy (Orioles), Mark Melancon (Giants), Kyle Barraclough (Marlins), Chris Coghlan (Blue Jays), Hector Santiago (Twins), Zack Cozart & Scott Feldman (Reds), Martin Prado & Edinson Volquez (Marlins), Cameron Maybin (Angels), Johnny Cueto (Giants), Tyson Ross (Rangers), Daniel Nava (Phillies), T.J. Rivera (Mets)
Also Considered
Angels: J.C. Ramirez, Jesse Chavez, Ricky Nolasco, Yunel Escobar
Athletics: Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, Santiago Casilla, John Axford (DFA limbo), Khris Davis
Blue Jays: J.A. Happ, Steve Pearce, Roberto Osuna, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Aaron Loup, Josh Donaldson
Braves: Arodys Vizcaino, Julio Teheran, R.A. Dickey, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Brandon Phillips, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Adams
Cardinals: Trevor Rosenthal, Seung-hwan Oh, Michael Wacha, Jedd Gyorko
Giants: Jeff Samardzija, Hunter Strickland, George Kontos, Nick Hundley, Hunter Pence, Matt Cain, Denard Span, Joe Panik
Marlins: A.J. Ellis, Brad Ziegler, Dan Straily, Adam Conley, Junichi Tazawa, Tom Koehler, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton
Mets: Neil Walker, Jerry Blevins, Rene Rivera, Fernando Salas, Josh Edgin (DFA limbo), Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores
Orioles: Seth Smith, Welington Castillo, Manny Machado, Wade Miley, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day
Padres: Jose Torres, Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates, Yangervis Solarte
Phillies: Joaquin Benoit, Freddy Galvis, Hector Neris, Vince Velasquez, Cesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph, Hyun Soo Kim
Pirates: Juan Nicasio, Tony Watson, Josh Harrison, Ivan Nova, Wade LeBlanc, David Freese, Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole
Rangers: Mike Napoli, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, Jeremy Jeffress, Keone Kela, Andrew Cashner
Reds: Tony Cingrani, Raisel Iglesias, Billy Hamilton, Blake Wood, Scooter Gennett
Tigers: Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Iglesias, Alex Wilson, Victor Martinez, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene, Michael Fulmer
Twins: Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Ehire Adrianza, Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle, Ryan Pressly
White Sox: Jose Abreu, Miguel Gonzalez, James Shields, Mike Pelfrey, Derek Holland
why has no one done anything yet
Sonny
There have been 18 trades involving established Major Leaguers since Quintana was dealt to the Cubs, plus several more minor swaps and one prospect-for-prospect type of deal (O’Neill for Gonzales). That’s an average of more than one per day — it’s been a fairly active couple of weeks.
We’re talking big name action Steve
Tillman? Theirs go to be a lot from Teams that have guys that to move haven’t made a Trade yet like Cardinals,Blue Jays,Angels so on tonight so they can make some tomorrow to. Prices need to come down.
Tillman has been one of the worst starters in the American League after missing the beginning of the season due to injury, and the Orioles just acquired a starter (Hellickson) simply because they feel they need someone to give them innings.
Tillman doesn’t really have any trade value, and it doesn’t seem especially likely that the O’s move anyone who can reasonably be expected to occupy a spot in the rotation.
joe smith over hand??
Also ranking likelihood here, and it’s likelier that Smith — a pending free agent with a cheap $3MM salary — is moved than it is that Hand is dealt.
this is true
must be a list of most likely to be traded
It says in the intro that it’s based on likelihood and value.
Ok Steve Adams you know everything! good gawd
Mariners need either Lance Lynn or Ervin Santana.
Mariners won’t trade for Ervin Santana. Dipoto won’t have anyone on his team that liked playing for Scioscia.
Should be a wild day tomorrow
Needs to be moved to midnight tomorrow so more time for Trades to happen and all GM’s should have been Cooperstown today to talk Trades down like Winter Meetings and NHL does at Draft. Tonight hope a like 100 so MLB Network breaking in to talk about all of them.
Curious being a Dodger fan how do you feel about Virdugo+ Darvish? As a Yankee fan if it takes a couple top prospects to get Gray I’m fine with it. Some of these fans need to understand theirs no room in the next few seasons for some of these prospects.
*Verdugo
Depends on how much the + is. I dont even think they would trade him 1 for 1 for a rental. Verdugo is major league ready and will be up very soon if he is still with the club. Walker Buehler is also near mlb ready too which some people don’t realize. Gleyber Torres was years away. 3 of the dodgers big 4 will be here soon which is why they probably wont trade them
Yea that’s the difference between the Dodgers farm and the Yankees. The Dodgers also have Calhoun and if their lineup wasn’t so lefty heavy Verdugo could very well already be up. I don’t get some of these Yankee fans posting on here about him,when he really won’t be ready to play in the bigs next year..coming off that injury and 3rd would be difficult anyway. Then after next year theirs Machdo and signing him is a no brainer,
Dodgers will trade for darvish. But honestly it will be for verdugo or buehler. If we get both, it’s because we threw other players in the deal.
I doubt you will get either. I know you won’t get both.
Sheesh if there was ever a time for the Pirates to trade Cutch. Guess they will hope he finishes strong then pick up his option and shop him over the winter.
Nobody is looking to buy an OF.
Gyorko would be a decent pickup for the Pirates, especially if Kang is done in the mlb.
So, the Phillies might flip Kim? I guess.
Yangervis Solarte is off the DL. Today he went 0-3 with a walk while playing 3b.
Asdrubal back to Cleveland would be a good fit.
Who do the Cubs get off this list?
Nifty
Hard to believe we’re already one year removed from what was likely one of the best trade hauls in MLB “trade deadline” history with the Yankees this time last year. And if not the very best, it’s certainly near the top. In fact, here is an idea for you MLBTR. It could be a good story for you to pen on Tuesday once the dust settles, who has had the best deadline ever as a seller for as long as you’ve been covering this type of thing. Since this is your business, would be good to read. My money is on the Yankees 2016 based on the extremely high upside talent along with quantity, but I await your research!
Recognizing that it came a month before the deadline, the Indians’ return for Bartolo Colon was three players who’ve amassed nearly 100 career WAR.
“Jim Johnson would be a useful piece for the braves next year”.
Yeah what more useful than a blown save every time you touch the mound.
My picks on these (and if I can find this tomorrow I’ll bump this and laugh at myself when I get proven wrong, but if you find it first, go ahead and do that.
Gray: Stays with A’s. Unlike Darvish he is not a rental and is really cheap, so Beane will stick to his asking price, which I’ve been saying for the past 3 days nobody is going to match. And if nobody matches which I don’t think so Beane can shop him again at the winter meetings (when teams will still have 2 years of control) or even at the deadline next year when teams will still have a year and a half of control.
Darvish: Dodgers. The Dodgers have to go for it. Yah, they are 1,000 games up in the division, but for them its about the playoffs. And this acquisition will allow Kershaw to only start once in a playoff series. Either them or the Rangers (lowering the asking price to get something for him instead of potentially nothing) will blink by 4 PM Monday.
Reed: Red Sox
Kintzler: Stays with Twins. Not enough time to do something, too valuable for scraps, plus they are still somewhat in the Wildcard race.
Justin Wilson: Yankees. Royals in 2015 showed how valuable a bullpen is when you have mediocre starting pitching. With them out of the running for Gray, not a serious threat for Darvish, and with Angelos unwilling to trade Britton to the Yankees, they’ll go hard after Wilson.
Joe Smith: Brewers. Cheap option that won’t cost the Brewers a ton.
Avila: Cubs & LuCroy Rockies. I called LuCroy to the Rockies before this proposed annouincement
Hand: Padres, Brach: Orioles, Britton: Astros. If the Astros fail to acquire Darvish or Gray they’ll make a play for Britton.
Lance Lynn & Trevor Rosenthal: Nationals. Both are free agents so I think the Nats can keep their big prospects they have high hopes for (Fedde, Robles & Soto), which will help the team immediately in their quest to win their first playoff series. Lynn is consistent, will go out every 5 days, and give you a quality start, while Rosenthal, while not great, has been pitching better lately, and has plenty of playoff experience which is a bonus.
Alonso, Lowrie, Storen, Johnson, Hernandez, Norris, Gomez. All stay with current teams.
Santana: Stays with Twins. See Kintzler. They are still on the fringe of the playoffs. Could definitely see him moved in the offseason though.
Verlander: Stays with the Tigers. With the Tigers wanting teams to take on his salary AND give up a top prospect, this almost seems like a slam dunk. I still like the idea Michael Kay brought up last week, the Yankees & Tigers swapping Ellsbury for Verlander with maybe someone like Cessa, Schreve, or someone else going to Detroit as well, but I don’t think Detroit is too keen with that. With Samardjiza unwillingly to waive his NTC and Johnny Cueto potentially opting out, there’s not many others bad contract for bad contract players Detroit to swap with.
Asdrubal Cabrera: Indians. Tribe could use a backup middle infielder to fill in for Kipnis while he’s out, and a nice switch hit bat off the bench when and if Kipnis returns.
Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson & Jose Bautista: Stay with the Mets & Jays respectfully for now, but all 3 look like logical August candidates to be moved, and I’d expect all to be moved by August 31.
Francisco Liriano: Royals. Could help the Royals as a starter or a reliever
Marco Estrada: Stays with the Jays. He had minimal value anyways as it was, and since June he has stunk up the joint on the mound which has likely torpedo’d what little value he had left. Potentially an August trade candidate if he pitches reasonably well in his next 2 or 3 starts as he should clear waivers.. I’d say Happ is more likely to be traded than Estrada, as that extra year Happ has that Estrada or Liriano don’t could be a deciding factor. if I was Ross Atkins I’d be pushing Happ hard, along with 1b Justin Smoak. Sure, Smoak may have finally found it after what seems like forever bouncing around the majors, but it could be just as likely this year was a fluke, and since he’s already 30, the odds aren’t likely he’s found something that he couldn’t find in his first 8 years. So I’d sell while he’s at the extreme peak. Sure, the Jays really don’t have anyone currently on the major league roster that can play first (Morales or Ref could play, but both are sub optimal options there) but the team isn’t going anywhere this year anyways, so why not see if they can get back something reasonable, and spend the final 2 months seeing if there’s anyone at Buffalo (AAA team) that can play first. That’s what selling teams do, and the Jays should definitely be a seller.
Trevor Rosenthal is not a FA until after ’18
There are a few other names that could be added to the White Sox list of potential trade candidates.
Recently acquired veteran reliever Tyler Clippard who was a “cash throw-in” from the recent trade with the Yankees is on an expiring contract and could be flipped by the non-waiver trade deadline or through the August waiver trade period.
Reliever Jake Petricka, who just came off of the disabled list, is another possibility with 2 more years of arbitration eligible control beyond this season, the same amount that Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu possess who are also on this list of trade candidates. Garcia was having a breakout season before hitting the DL a couple of days ago and is extremely unlikely to be dealt. Abreu will also likely remain with the White Sox through at least next season as a leader and mentor for some of the latino prospects who will begin to emerge on the White Sox active roster. He’s already filling that role with fellow Cuban countryman Yoan Moncada. Petricka, Garcia and Abreu won’t be eligible for free agency until 2020.
Another player who just came off of the DL is supremely versatile switch-hitter Leury Garcia, yet another White Sox “Garcia” who is in the midst of a career year. He possesses 3 more years of arbitration control and won’t be eligible for FA until 2021. He could be a very valuable addition to a contender in need of a player who can play all 3 OF positions as well as SS, 2B and 3B. He has elite speed and would also provide a team with a solid pinch-running option off the bench.
Could someone please give me a brief synopsis of “Trade Deadline Players and the Actual Salary Assumed by the Acquiring Club for Dummies?” For example, if Jay Bruce has a $13 million dollar salary with the Mets for 2017 and is then traded to, say, my beloved BoSox, how much of that $13 million salary count towards Boston’s 2017 salary, especially in light of their efforts to avoid going over the Luxury Tax Threshold three years in a row which I understand comes with astronomical Luxury tax consequences. If Boston can remain under the Threshold this year (and avoid going over 3 straight years) they can then be set-up to spend like drunken sailors on leave for 2018. And considering that Mr. Henry just decided to “eat” some huge contracts for Pablo and Allan Craig, while continuing to give Castillo multi millions to play AAA with absolutely no shot of being called up to the big league squad, I hope there’s no one out there accusing that man of being cheap! Just wondering how much of a contract for a player traded for at the deadline counts towards the cap?
It’s more complicated for multi-year deals, b/c you take an average annual value over the life of the contract, but I believe in the case of an option year (as in Bruce’s case for 2017) you just look at that year. So, Boston would (in this hypothetical) be charged (in real life and for lux tax purposes) a pro-rated portion of Bruce’s $13MM salary.
$13MM / 183 days in the season x days remaining (62 from Aug 1 through Oct 1) = ~$4.4MM
Verlander has been so badly disrespected on here it’s ridiculous.
Not disrespected, just realistic. The Tigers would have to eat some of his contract to get rid of him for no return and even more of his contract if they expect an actual prospect return.
How’s that? The indications are he won’t likely be traded, because nobody is interested in paying a big price in prospects and absorbing the salary. This list mostly reflects our read of the market, not like my and Steve’s personal assessment of the players’ abilities.
Honestly, it was something of a reach to keep him in the top 25 due to the most recent reporting, which suggests it’s quite unlikely he’ll be moved.
This seems like a clear and/or proposition, not and/and. The Tigers could get a strong prospect return on Verlander if they were willing to pay down most of his contract. Or, they could take it as a pure salary dump and expect maybe a warm body or two. What they can’t expect is to get is both ends of the bargain. We’re always hearing about how large contracts make players untradeable, but the reality is, unless they are useless, they are only as untradable as the team owning the contract wants them to be.
This is true.