The 91-37 Dodgers are miles above the competition in the National League and have some of the game’s top players, including Rookie of the Year-to-be Cody Bellinger and 2016 ROY Corey Seager, but the MVP seems unlikely to come from their roster this season. While Bellinger, Seager, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and the injured Clayton Kershaw are among many Dodgers who have had brilliant 2017s, a slew of MVP-caliber performers from other teams may overshadow LA’s best when voting comes at season’s end. Those Dodgers (primarily Seager), two Nationals (right fielder Bryce Harper and ace Max Scherzer) and Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant are among the most notable exclusions in this particular ranking and their absences will understandably cause some disagreements.
In Harper’s case, he may well have been on track to earn his second MVP this year before he went on the shelf two weeks ago with a “significant” bone bruise – one that will keep him out for a while longer, it seems. Bryant, the reigning MVP, is having another tremendous campaign, but the abundance of great individual seasons occurring in the NL this year works against him here. He’s certainly one of many legitimate candidates, and it’s currently difficult to find a single player who clearly stands above the rest or even put together a short list of those who deserve the award the most. But here goes…
5.) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: The rebuilding Reds are toward the bottom of the standings, so Votto isn’t going to win an award that many believe should only go to players on teams relevant to the playoff race. However, if MVP is synonymous with “best,” the hitting scholar should draw voters’ attention. The 2010 NL MVP continues to dazzle seven seasons later as a 33-year-old, with a .311/.446/.588 line and 33 homers (the second-most of a potential Hall of Fame career) in 570 plate appearances. No one in baseball has gotten on base at a better clip than Votto or matched his ridiculous K/BB ratio. It’s very rare to find a hitter capable of amassing 39 more unintentional walks than strikeouts (109 to 70), let alone one who does it while increasing his power output (Votto’s .278 ISO is 50 points better than his lifetime number), yet the face of the Reds has somehow pulled it off this season. Votto took five trips to the plate Sunday and drew a walk in each of them. Remarkable.
4.) Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: On a Washington team that has dealt with injuries to some major contributors this year, including Harper and Scherzer, Rendon has gotten by unscathed. The 27-year-old has appeared in 120 of the Nationals’ 128 games and posted a .299/.401/.543 batting line with 22 homers and 68 unintentional walks against 71 strikeouts in 491 PAs. Rendon has combined his offensive excellence with adeptness at the hot corner, having recorded the National League’s ninth-most defensive runs saved (nine) and the league’s second-ranked Ultimate Zone Rating (12.0), en route to the NL’s highest fWAR (5.8). He’s about as good as it gets, then, but still manages to fly under the radar as part of a club with more star power. Consequently, an MVP could be tough to come by for the relatively unheralded Rendon.
3.) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies: Across 547 trips to the plate this season, Arenado has hit .309/.364/.589 with 29 homers. A .953 OPS over that type of sample size always warrants praise, though it carries less weight coming from someone who plays half his games at Coors Field. But Arenado isn’t just some Colorado-inflated wonder, as his .877 OPS away from his home park this season shows. The 26-year-old is also one of the premier defensive players in baseball – he’s first in the NL in DRS (19) – and perhaps the primary reason why the Rockies are headed toward their first playoff berth since 2009. While there’s a case to be made that teammate Charlie Blackmon has outperformed Arenado this year and should be on this list either instead of his fellow Rockie or with him, the center fielder has done the vast majority of his damage at Coors Field (1.275 OPS at home, .799 on the road). Extra credit goes to Arenado as a result.
2.) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt is a Votto-esque producer who’s actually on a playoff contender, which could give voters the best of both worlds. The 29-year-old has put together a marvelous stretch since his first full season in 2013 and earned five All-Star nods, yet he still seems underrated. An MVP award would give Goldschmidt some much-deserved time in the spotlight, and the numbers he has put up this year make him one of the leading possibilities. With 30 homers and 17 steals, Goldschmidt’s headed for his second 30/20 season in the past three years, and he blends his power and speed with the ability to hit for average (.315) and get on base (.425). He’s also a quality defender (11 DRS, 3.1 UZR), albeit not at a premium position. While Goldschmidt’s above-average work in the field is less valuable than, say, Arenado’s, it further demonstrates that his game is loaded with strengths. What do you give the player whose game is near flawless and who’s the principal component of what looks like an October-bound team? The MVP, perhaps.
1.) Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins: The main factor working against Stanton’s MVP candidacy is that he plays for a team that probably won’t qualify for the postseason. And yet the Marlins have come from nowhere in recent weeks to climb to three games above .500 and make the NL wild-card race a bit more interesting. They can thank Stanton for that. After taking a backseat to the Yankees’ Aaron Judge over the season’s first half, Stanton has reclaimed his spot as the game’s foremost power hitter, owing in part to an in-season adjustment to his stance.
With 24 home runs across 181 second-half PAs, Stanton has averaged a long ball every seven-plus trips to the plate since the All-Star break, and his overall total (50) paces everyone else in NL by at least 16 (!). The 27-year-old has a very real chance of registering the majors’ first 60-homer season since Barry Bonds smashed a record 73 with the Giants in 2001. And like Bonds, his former hitting coach with the Marlins, Stanton’s not just an all-or-nothing type. Thanks partially to a career-best strikeout rate (23.5 percent, down 6.3 percent from last season), Stanton has posted a personal-high .296 batting average and gotten on base 38.9 percent of the time. He ranks first in the NL in OPS (1.059), wRC+ (167) and ISO (.374), unsurprisingly, and entered Sunday tied for second in fWAR (5.4). Injuries prevented Stanton from reaching his full potential in recent years, but he’s now healthy and showing that he’s an MVP-level player. Baseball’s a lot better off for it.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
If Freeman could stay healthy for an entire year… maybe next year if the braves are contenders. As of right now either get Goldy his MVP or Giancarlo should get it.
Nolan deserves the Mvp he’s the best all around player offensive and defensively .. But Stanton knows how to hit them dingers boiiiii just imagine if he played at coors or suntrust he’d have like 70 home runs
Wouldn’t bank on the braves contending next year. 2019 will probably be Freeman’s best shot at the MVP. Hopefully he’s not one of those guys that had his best years on a subpar team.
How many voters are “old school” versus “new school” types? If more are old school, Stanton wins since he has the most home runs. If more are new school, who’s the leader in WAR? That’s all anybody cares about anyway, so just award it based on WAR leaders. Save the hassle and suspense.
Basing it off WAR would be awful. That would mean Andrelton Simmons would finish 2nd in the AL
Simmons deserves to be up there. Not necessarily win, but to be in the conversation. He’s an above average hitter and the best defender in baseball. Him and trout have dragged the Angels dead carcass into the postseason picture
Simmons is top 10 in voting but not near the top. If altuve wasn’t having an utter worldy season that would mean simmons wins mvp basing it only on WAR
Which is why basing it just off WAR would be stupid.
I thought it was “other” worldly?
Simmons is in the AL
Yeah, that post is an other disaster.
Agreed… tell Fangraphs and Baseball Reference it needs to be REVISED then so it makes sense. Then when this and other sites spout off WAR, we’ll actually take it seriously.
Or take the 3 minutes of time it takes to understand it
Which one? Neither agrees on how to calculate WAR, but we always cite it and use it as a reference.
That’s why there’s bwar and fwar. They aren’t the same thing.
“tell Fangraphs and Baseball Reference it needs to be REVISED then so it makes sense”
So, dumb it down? Either you’ve tried to understand them and failed – that’s on you, or you haven’t tried to understand them and just want to whinge – that’s also on you.
Both sites spend an incredible amount of time tinkering with formulas to try and refine them. This is consistent with what EVERY team in baseball also does – it’s widely known that analytical departments across the game have their own proprietary formulas.
Unless you’re going to turn around and say that every team in Baseball is barking up the wrong tree, you probably should be more reserved in your judgement.
Use the tools – don’t moan about the shelf having different brands on it.
They know perfectly fine how to calculate it, they just use different systems for defence specifically. You sound like you just don’t understand WAR and hate it because of it. I suggest you take the time to understand it, furthermore neither of BR or FG use WAR as a sole measuring tool, in fact they both use many different tools. When the writers at FG & BR reference WAR they are usually using it as a way to translate performance into $$ not as a tool to determine player quality.
I don’t think the old school crowd would pick Stanton barring the outside chance the Marlins make the postseason. I think it’s dumb cuz you be just as valuable to a losing team but it’s not like I have a vote
Ask Andre Dawson.
Ol school is bout winning, what player meant the most to his team, except for Hawk, who earned it w/woeful Cubs that yr, it’s not bout who lead lge in bombs…..ask Gibby….’88 Dodgers. It’s not a beauty pageant ! What individual player helped his team win….the most….?
Terry Pendleton….that yr….he meant the most too his tm….was driving force on very good winning tm. Not gaudy #s, but an MVP trophy earned by day-in-day-out production. A winner wins.
Can’t go wrong with Stanton. He’d definitely be my choice.
If Stanton hits 60, he has to win it. I wouldn’t have put Votto at 5th. There’s still too many voters that believe that if your team isn’t a winner, the stats have to be head and shoulders above all others, like Trout’s,. Votto’s aren’t.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown and people still complained and said it should be Mike Trout since he led Cabrera in “WAR”, so unless Stanton is leading in the unable-to-calculate-and-disagreed-upon-statistic WAR, he’s not going to win it. Until Fangraphs and Baseball Reference can agree on how to calculate the stat, hopefully it doesn’t continue to dominate who should be “MVP”.
Agreed, is probably take stanton votto and then goldy
Votto’s numbers are pretty ridiculous, I’m not sure what you’re talking about.
#2 in bWAR (position players)
#3 in offensive War (b-r)
#9 in AVG
#1 in OBP (#2 is 20 pts behind)
#6 in SLG
#2 in OPS
#6 in Runs
#3 in HR
#1 in BB (24 ahead of #2)
#2 in OPS+
#1 in Offensive Win %
#1 in RE24
#6 in WPA
#2 in WPA/LI
#1 in REW
How the hell is that not top 5? IMO Stanton is the only one higher.
#1 Stanton
#2 Votto
#3 Goldy
#4 Arenado
#5 Harper
#6 Rendon
# 7 Scherzer
Bryant not being on this list isnt controversial at all. Why should he be on it? Harper cant be here either cuz of missing too many games.
This should be the year Goldschmidt finally gets it. Stantons homers may unfortunately sway some voters though.
Bryant is having almost the exact same season as last year. It’s just that there’s so many others having great seasons as well.
On a different note, what do you mean stantons homers will “unfortunately sway voters”? He’s been the best hitter in baseball this year.
Jose Altuve has been the clear cut best “hitter” in baseball this year. However, the importance of the HR shouldn’t be overlooked. Stanton’s been an absolute beast post AS game. A potentially 60+ Hr season combined with a strong average and OBP is going to be tough to not vote for.
Yes, he’s having “almost the exact same season” based on his triple slash line, but he has been significantly worse when it matters most. He had a .754 OPS in High Leverage situations last year, and this year it’s all the way down to .471. Also, people can say what they want about RBI’s being a “meaningless stat,” but he has been straight up bad at driving runners in this year, and it’s not because he has been lacking in opportunities. He definitely doesn’t belong in the top 5 this year.
“Also, people can say what they want about RBI’s being a “meaningless stat,” but…”
Your argument became invalid at this point and you lost all scholars on browsing this forum.
Yeah but it’s not the Most Valuable Hitter award…
I’m a huge Cubs fan. Bryant ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY CAN Not HIT WITH RUNNERS ON BASE!!! Rizzo is the guy from that team. Look at the RBI difference!! Contreras when healthy.
And if Maddon takes Javy Baez (el Mago) off short of favor of Addi, he’s a numb skull
What about Blackmon?
He’s a total product of the park, hitting around .390 at home with 13/14 triples there, a major component of his high SLG. I guess he deserves some consideration, but I’d take any of the five guys in the article over him easily.
I’ll cast my vote for Wilmer Flores
Finally, someone who really understands baseball.
Haha thank you
Goldy, hands down.
Probably the MOST underrated player of his generation. Thoughts?
He and Votto qualify for that title. If Votto played in a big market, people would see how remarkable he is. He took 31 pitches in his first three ABs (3 walks), which doomed the starting pitcher to a short outing. His approach at the plate alters the game.
Yes, and all 5 of Votto’s walks were on a 3-2 count too.
True that players on small market teams can easily be overlooked, and Votto definitely qualifies on that score. Still, by far the best hitter on a weak team is going to draw a lot of walks if he isn’t swing crazy so I wouldn’t get overly excited by his OBP.
What’s with the WAR hate in this section? I think people know it’s an imperfect stat, just like any other single number. But, at the same time, it is pretty good, especially if you look at all three metrics. The voters that look at WAR are probably the same kind of people who would want to do a lot of statistical analysis before making their decision
What is WAR though? When the two “dominating” websites (Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) disagree on how it’s even calculated, don’t you think we should figure that out before using it as the be-all-end-all of statistics? It ruins players’ careers nowadays just because they have a negative WAR, but who knows how to calculate it exactly?
Nobody ever says it’s the be all, end all, except for people that want to live 50 years in the past, while they complain about advanced metrics.
As long as you can understand and *calculate* those advanced metrics, that’s different. Again, what is WAR? Nobody can agree on how it’s calculated. I just want to know exactly what it is and how to calculate it. This generation is obsessed in knowing exactly what’s in their food, but when it comes to calculating the dominating metric to measure a baseball player’s value, nobody cares.
Again…its simply 1 stat that does a good job of telling you about a player’s total production, but it isn’t the only stat, and it’s definitely not the only stat that matters. It’s 1 part of the spectrum. You just hate anything that isn’t traditional slash line, so you have to go on tangents about 1 stat that nobody else was talking about here, before you started talking about it, as if it’s totally useless, instead of looking at everything that encompasses what a player is doing. You just want to sound contrarian to advanced metrics, so you site the same thing all the other 70 year olds complain about.
You just keep assuming he’s old school without him actually saying that. He wants to know how to generate the stat, he asked twice. If you can’t answer him, just say so.
He’s pretty clearly old – school because he did the “that’s the problem with this generation” thing.
He’s right that it’s a long formula. No, I can’t calculate it myself, and no, it shouldn’t be looked at as some sort of save-all statistic. Using WAR only to measure value is silly, as would be using any singular statistic to measure value.
That said, it’s an attempt to approximate a player’s worth that’s more encompassing than any other singular stat. The main reason for the differences in calculation are that the sites use different defensive metrics. No one knows how to measure defense perfectly, but fielding percentage really sucks as a stat. As for the comment about it ruining people’s careers, it works both ways. Someone like Carlos Gonzalez or Matt Kemp is I’m sure viewed more negatively now than they would’ve been ten years, but advanced metrics made Jason Heyward a very rich man for instance. (That the contract flopped for the team does nothing to refute my original argument that player valuation has changed).
thekzonenews.wordpress.com/2017/01/16/dissecting-w…
I wrote this a while ago explaining the WAR metric calculation on fangraphs. Them, and I believe bbr both show their calculations publicly. I agree that people should what goes into the calculation, but I disagree that there can’t be multiple variations, as long as people understand that none of them is the end all be all, which I think people do understand
Dang, my shameless self promotion didn’t work out. Well played MLBTR, well played
Each publication has an explanation of how they calculate WAR. There are differences and they specify what they are. If he wants to insinuate that they magically come up with a number for each player, with zero basis behind it, that’s clearly an attempt to put down the evolution of statistics in the game, and claim they’re totally useless. He also made mention of “this generation.”
Google. He/She has no interest in understanding the calculations, however. You’ll figure that out eventually.
You’re contradicting yourself – you said above “who’s the leader in WAR? That’s all anybody cares about anyway,”, then you’re saying here ” but when it comes to calculating the dominating metric to measure a baseball player’s value, nobody cares.”.
The fact that people care about this stuff is the reason why FG and BR calculations are so popular, and why every team has an analytics department.
If you’re going to try and stimulate debate, at least get your story straight.
m.wikihow.com/Calculate-Baseball-WAR
It’s just math, not magic. And it’s based on a lot of the “traditional” stats in an attempt to roll them into a single number. Yes, it’s clunky, but it’s not useless, either.
You need to stop spouting about the 2 sites, they use different defensive systems and it changes it a lot. You act like these voters exclusively look at WAR, fill out a ballet solely based on that and use no other information to weigh their decision.
WAR is just a stat, it’s one of many tools used to weigh a players value, with so much of the Statcast data becoming public, they are using that raw data to better adjust stats and how we calculate them. If you don’t understand WAR you better buckle up cause the stats are going to just get way more complicated when Statcast data starts rolling into it.
The WAR stats are somewhat similar to the many models used to forecast the weather. The weather models produce very different forecasts but in the end the model outputs can be compared to the reality they are trying to predict. This is how the models are refined over time and why weather forecasting has improved. The problem with the WAR stats is they can’t really be compared to some kind of ground truth. They are based on different assumptions about the fundamentally irresolvable question about makes a player valuable. Inherently these models can’t get any better, just different. So the problem with WAR isn’t old vs new school, it’s about understanding or not the value and limits of statistical models.
Which players have had their careers ruined because of having a negative WAR?
WAR values defense way too much. Even bill james the sabermetric father said the defense in war can be flawed
Btw. I don’t know how to generate the stat.
Sorry, posted under wrong reply
If Goldy didn’t win in 2013 on a non-playoff team after having vastly superior numbers to eventual winner Andrew McCutchen, then Stanton shouldn’t win the award this season unless Miami makes the postseason. The DBacks were contenders until September that year and that fact was ignored by voters. Either Goldy or Arenado should be the MVP this season assuming both teams make the playoffs
wrong. Goldy’s stats PALE in comparison to stanton, which other than avg leads goldy by FAR
Games – Goldy up by 4, runs – Stanton up by 6, hits – goldy up by 6, doubles – goldy up by 2, triples – goldy has 3 Stanton has 0, home runs – Stanton up by 19, Stanton has 5 more rbis, goldy has 18 more walks, Stanton has 9 more strike outs, goldy has 15 MORE stolen bases, goldy has a better average and obp, Stanton has a better slugging.
So no he doesn’t lead in most other categories… Goldy does, 9 to 5…
You didn’t hear my point. Goldy’s Stats were superior to McCutchen’s when he won the award in 2013, only because the Pirates made the playoffs and Arizona didn’t. If they hold the teams success against Goldy in 2013, then they should hold it against Stanton this season. Miami won’t make the playoffs
I’d put Marcel Ozuna on this list too. Guy is having a monster year.
IDEA FOR THIS APP!!( if it’s even possible)
Would it ever be possible to receive notifications if our comment has been commented on??
I have an option box under my comment window stating “Notify me of followup comments via e-mail.”
Goldy’s game is much more complete than Stanton’s even with his cartoonish Home Run totals. Stanton has had a great, even historic, July and August but in his career he has often been a Hot/Cold-type of player. On the other hand, Goldschmidt is so consistent he ends up being seen as really boring in comparison. But it’s a 162-game season, I’ll put my money on the steady excellence of Goldy to end up as NL MVP in the wake of Stanton’s hot streak cooling down. One potentially major flaw in my reasoning… Stanton gets to feast on NL East pitching the rest of the way (sans some Nationals).
And Goldy gets to feast on NL West pitching the rest of the way (sans some Dodgers)…
I’m going to once again cast a vote or whatever for Rendon, and before Sun Devil jumps down my throat, this isn’t simply choosing the WAR leader. His strikeout – walk profile is elite, he’s got a .246 ISO and is going to end up with 25-30 homers, and he has a long history of being viewed as an elite defender, so I’m inclined to buy the positive defensive metrics, and, for those who care, Washington’s really good.
He won’t win, and there’s a good chance Stanton or Arenado do catch him in terms of overall production by the end of the year, but I do like that he was at least mentioned here
Freeman would have had a great shot at a MVP if he didn’t get hit in the hand. That injury has slowed him down too much and ruined his chances this year.
They really need to decide if it’s a “MOST VALUABLE player” award or the best player award.
It does seem odd to say “well, sure he’s the best player, but his teammates suck so we can’t give it to him, let’s give it to a lesser player on a better team, BUT not TOO GOOD of a team, because then he’s not as valuable.”
It’s just gotta be best player. Nowhere in the description does it say he has to be on a winning team. We know that 1, 2, or even 3 good players can’t drag a team into the postseason
In my eyes……an MVP is probably “The Guy Who Picked His Team Up And CARRIED Them On His Back”.
Wins and Losses don’t measure everything. “Making the playoffs” doesn’t either. If some year, we have 8 teams who win 95 games or more……3 of them “won’t make the playoffs”.
Is that a Good Measure of how good the team is? Nope
Stanton isn’t just hitting HR’s. He’s NOT “On A Hot Streak”……..
He CHANGED HIS STANCE!!!
He’s batting .295 as well!!! He’s using “The Whole Field” now. Today he shot a double down the RF line, then a single down the LF line, then hit #50 to CF (a bullet that probably didn’t go 50 ft off the ground, but went 425 ft….Wow!!!)
Stanton has carried the Marlins “Into The Playoff Hunt”. His Home/Road Splits are almost IDENTICAL…..and he plays in a HUGE Home Park.
The whole notion of an MVP award not going to someone on a non-contending team doesn’t work anymore. If that was the case Betts would have won the award last year over Trout
Umm Charlie Blackmon. And it’s not even close. Makes no sense why he isn’t being mentioned.
The Coors effect…
1.275 OPS at home – .799 OPS on the road. It makes a lot of sense why he isn’t being mentioned.
Home / Road splits are not-so-great. Home cooking is great, but his road numbers take him out of the mix.
Home: .392 /.469 / .806 / 1.275
Away: .288 / .332 / .467 / .799
Domingo Santana
.272 / .366 / .469 / .834…………..
When Blackmon goes on the road, he becomes Domingo Santana….Yikes!
Domingo has had a good year.
True…….But definitely NOT an MVP year.
Good Player with a lot of upside.
Guys. Let’s keep it simple. Most VALUABLE Player. Means who has been the most valuable to your team. Who has helped his team win the most games? He can do that by hitting or pitching.usually hitters bat 4-5 times a game and play 9 innings in the field. And their defense, hitting, hitting for power, base running, arm, etc all count. So who is the most valuable in terms of doing the MOST day in and day out to win ballgames. Bam. Discussion over.
5 tool guys have the edge (Ex.. Trout)
So, who’s your pick lol?
I think we’re overlooking Corey Seager
Let me break it down
1.) While the literal meaning of MVP differs from voter to voter, I look at it as “who brought the most value to both their respective organizations and to the National League as a whole.
2.) In the National League, the Dodgers have a commanding hold on first in the NL (13 games ahead of the second place Nationals).
3.) Corey Seager has had the best season of any player on the Dodgers with an 892 OPS, plus a decent glove at shortstop and the ability to hit for both power and average.
IMO Seager brought the most value to both his organization and to the National League.
Blackmon has produced consistently from day one. He’d get my vote.
Great Player………Horrible road splits.
He’s a product of playing home games at Coors. Don’t disagree until you look at the splits………On the road, you can’t tell the difference between him and Domingo Santana…..Yikes!
I think it is Blackmon as well. His splits aren’t as bad as one may think. Between Blackmon, Votto, Stanton, and Goldschmidt, Blackmon has the highest road batting average, most runs scored, and is only 3 road HR behind Goldy and Votto and only one less extra base hit. And unlike any of the other candidates, Blackmon hits leadoff, so he doesn’t get near the men on base the rest get, and he still will plate 100 RBIs.
Rockies wouldn’t be even in the playoff race without Blackmon.