It’s been previously reported on multiple occasions that the Blue Jays and right-hander Marco Estrada had mutual interest in a reunion, and that interest came to fruition on Wednesday. The 34-year-old Estrada, who was slated to hit free agency at season’s end, will instead forgo that opportunity in order to return to the Jays on a one-year, $13MM extension, the team announced. Estrada is represented by TWC Sports.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Estrada, who stormed out of the gates with a 3.15 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 through his first 11 starts before falling into a prolonged slump. Estrada would go on to yield 43 earned runs over his next 40 2/3 innings (nine starts) before once again largely righting the ship. In his past 11 outings, Estrada has turned in 3.74 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9.
On the whole, Estrada’s ERA hasn’t fully recovered from the brutal stretch of starts spanning June to mid-July. He’s sitting on a 4.84 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.48 HR/9 and a 29.7 percent ground-ball rate. That grounder rate is the lowest of his career — a dangerous pairing with his lofty HR/9 rate. However, Estrada’s 31 starts are already a career-high, and he seems likely to top his previous career-high of 181 innings in 2017 as well. That’s no small feat for a player that was slowed tremendously in 2016 by a herniated disk in his back.
Estrada will slot back into the starting five behind Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ next season, as the Jays hope for better health from their rotation (specifically, Sanchez and Happ). There’s no clear in-house option for the fifth slot in the rotation, as righty Joe Biagini has struggled in his first chance as a big league starter. Prospect Ryan Borucki posted quality numbers across three minor league levels, and veteran Brett Anderson has looked sharp in four starts as he auditions for a 2018 job. If none of those options entice president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, the Jays will have myriad options from which to choose on the offseason free-agent market and trade market.
It’s been a disappointing overall year for the Jays, who opened the season with just one win in their first 10 games and never fully recovered. However, despite their poor performance, the Blue Jays never seemed intent to listen to trade offers for anyone controlled beyond the 2017 season. While Josh Donaldson and J.A. Happ drew plenty of trade speculation, the Blue Jays indicated that their intent is to field a contending team in 2018. Their lone trades involved Francisco Liriano (whose contract they ate, along with that of Nori Aoki, in order to effectively purchase young outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Astros) and setup man Joe Smith — both impending free agents.
Estrada, like Liriano and Smith, was set to be a free agent following the season and was a speculative August trade candidate. However, the Jays were only three games out of the AL Wild Card race when Estrada was claimed off revocable trade waivers, and they ultimately pulled the righty back after the claiming team (reportedly the Yankees) was more interested in blocking other contending clubs from getting their hands on Estrada.
Certainly, the team may alter its contention-oriented trajectory in 2018 if it stumbles out of the gates and finds itself similarly out of the postseason picture come July. At that point, there’d be plenty of sense in aggressively shopping Donaldson, Happ and Estrada as well, assuming each is healthy and performing reasonably well. For the time being, however, the Estrada extension serves as further proof that Toronto won’t be looking to market Donaldson this offseason and will instead try to supplement its core with an eye toward returning to the postseason for the third time in four years.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were nearing the deal and then that an agreement had been reached, as well as the terms of the contract (all links via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Oh ya
Oh no. Wait for it. As usual I am calling it and probably correctly – a few good starts then a waist of money. Hope it’s a cheap extension. More mediocrity for the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays professional scouting is awful. Someone please fire Adkins now….
As usual? You’re one of the most clueless people on here
100% you are correct about him being clueless
Fyi, I am mostly correct about my scouting calls on these pages. If you are a regular reader of the MLBTR for the Jays since last year, you would know I have made lots of scouting calls in advance of proof and most of them are 100% accurate And I will be accurate on this call of Estrada too, time will bare this out, there will be a significant decline in his performance in 2018, even more than we saw this year. #Scoutseyes.
What kind of scouting did you do to make these calls?
Hey, Thanks for asking. I was a Bird Dog Scout for MLB scouting bureau and a Bird Dog Scout for the Minnesota Twins. I spent many years in amateur sport, as a Olympic trainee in swimming for a decade, a school team for ball and then a manager and GM of a AAA high school age elite amateur team that MLB drafts from. I have a player that I recommended drafted by the Jays and by the Yankees.
But it is not about me, it more about the gift. Many scouting types have it. It is operates intuitively rather than logically or by reason[the mind]. Many intuitively gifted scouting types have the ability to look at player and know down the road how good they can be by their gut. Any scout can hold a radar gun or stopwatch and read b*seballreference.com. I operate out of intuition first, science second. I suggest googling or reading about intuitive decision-making and how it works if you would like to learn more.
Now you’re just trolling.
Huh? Name calling isn’t necessary [or deserved]. My baseball resume stands as stated.
“GM of a AAA high school age elite amateur team…” LOL a GM…
The dumbest people are also the loudest
‘But it’s not about me, it’s about the gift’
And he’s humble too!!!
As I heard a guy say, “Of all my attributes, what I’m proudest of is my humility.”
I don’t want to brag, but a lot of people tell me I’m the most humble person they have ever met.
And that’s probably an understatement!
amen.
Words are wind.
Give us all a break Big Jimmie & quit pretending to be something that you are NOT! We can all be anything we want while we hide behind a computer screen. As I have said in other posts, I will be finalizing my purchase of a MLB team any day now & I will contact you to be my director of scouting at the major league level. See how this works Jimmie?
You watch way too much TV there, Big Jimmie. It seems that we all have watched movies similar to what you just described. The only people that you are fooling are the kids that are impressionable on here.
out baseball resume???? Jimmie??
Just like how you’re correct about Morales being a great player?
My first words written on these pages about the Morales signing was “a good signing”. Regardless of the money he has produced this year.
He’s produced…. -0.7 fWAR if that’s what you mean. Yet somehow you think that was a good signing and this wasn’t? Someone needs a massive reality check lol
No reality check needed. A good GM will take .his current 249 BA, 27 Hr 80Rbi -.4 war any day of the week. Good club house guy, can fill in well at first base. And the season isn’t over yet.
No “good GM” would take a guy who has no business owning, much less occasionally wearing a glove. He’s a one-tool player at this point in his career.
Outside of good power, there’s not much else.
Learn to spell…….waste not waist
A waist??? Hahahahahahaha
Glad someone got the joke. Ever seen Morales. He has a waist. lol. Ahhh to explain the joke. Sigh.
“…time will bare this out…”
That was a joke as well? The “naked truth” perhaps?
No one got the joke cause there wasn’t one.
Proof that “Haste makes … waist.”
Your misspelling was NOT a joke genius. You are just in over your head.
I think you meant a waste of time….
man you’re the worst. you ruin the comment section of every blue Jays thread.
Oh ya One of those rare September extensions. I hope something gets done and it’s fair deal for for player and team.
Wow, what the Hell is he thinking? Estrada needs a new agent…
He’s got his money already and probably wasn’t going to get a big payday. He’s probably happy being in an environment and clubhouse that he’s comfortable in.
Not an excuse. Even if that is the case it stands to reason that he would get more money from the Jays if he’s a free agent and there are 29 other teams driving up his price. Taking an extension this close to free agency is just plain stupid unless the team overpays.
Ya I guess it is kind of odd timing. I’m not going to complain though.
Free agency is stressful for a lot of players, and Estrada watched several of his teammates (Bautista, Encarnacion and Saunders) languish in free agency.
Estrada has said on numerous occasions in the past that he wants to stay in Toronto. He’s coming off a so-so year and probably looking at a one-year deal anyhow. The Jays offered him a year.
The whole “let other teams drive up your price” thing is a fine theory and is often true, but it doesn’t always work, as Encarnacion can attest to. And the free-agent market was terrible for mid-tier starters last winter.
No matter how bad the market is for mid tier starters, there’s no way he gets less money by being able to field offers from all 30 teams than if he limits the market to just one. Worst case scenario, no one offers more than whatever he is now getting from the Jays so he just takes their offer. It’s possible the Jays offered him more money than he could have realistically hoped to get in free agency but foregoing free agency when you are already basically there is not a smart move.
I think you might have it confused. At the end of the day the agent works for the player. If the player ultimately decides he wants to forgo free agency then it’s all mute. Estrada probably cares less about the potential money. He’s stated he values being comfortable by his actions. He reupped in an environment he loves on a team where he knows he’s going to take the ball everyday 5 days, seems pretty smart to me. His financial terms are his prerogative who are you or I to judge that?
The thing you fail to realize is that taking an extension is not the only way he can stay in Toronto. He can still sign with them in free agency and he will probably get more money from them this way too. Why would you sign with the Blue Jays for less money when you could sign with the Blue Jays for more money?
Because that’s his choice. Why is it so HARD for you to understand? Jeez, you keep going back and forth with people thinking you know what’s best for someone you don’t even know, or have any idea what he’s about.
If Estrada took your advice and went to Free Agency, he’d find out that Free Agency isn’t kind to 34 year old pitchers who had semi-recent back problems and currently have an ERA close to 5. Not to mention the fact that the market was unkind to mid tier starters last year.
Estrada could very easily wind up in a situation where only a couple a teams are interested and none of them are devoted to signing him. At the end of it all, the Blue Jays would probably sign him back at a crazy discount since no one else has the optimism that they do in his talents.
Don’t believe me? Take a look back at what MLBTR thought last years Free Agents were going to make in Free Agency. Most of them got less.
Just Sayin
Or, while you’re testing the market, we sign somebody else without the back issues and a better ground ball rate for the same money. Cash aside, there are a whole host of reasons why a Mexican American father would want to jump at the chance to stay in Toronto right now.
Key word is “probably.” You are trolling at this point by pushing it so hard.
Offer to Bautista dwarfed what he ended up staying for. Don’t troll by saying he was further from free agency because everyone knows that, it’s not an exact parallel case.
Jason Hammel was let out of his contract off a good year expecting to sign for more and signed a crappier deal, and don’t troll by saying he got more total guarantee because it was a much worse deal by AAV and everyone knows this.
He can’t automatically sign with them in FA if he turns down the offer. They might allocate their spending money elsewhere, see last year with Morales/Encarnacion. They may have stressed this to him. He might have turned down 1/$12m from a team he wants to play for and ended up settling for 1/$10m for a team he didn’t want to play for, or something worse than that even, and had to move to a different country in the process.
Unless he decides that the $13MM the Jays offered isn’t his best offer, waits to see what other teams will give him more, then realizes he’s Plan C for other teams and ends up sitting on the market while the Jays turn elsewhere.
It happens to free agents every year, and it’s Estrada’s prerogative to avoid having to deal with the stress of that situation.
It’s not like Estrada isn’t aware that he could potentially have made more on the open market, but he’s also keenly aware of that the fact that he could’ve made less or a similar amount and had to uproot his family and move his life to another country by signing with a team in the U.S. He has the same agent as Troy Tulowitzki, Tim Hudson and plenty of other established big leaguers. All of this has been clearly laid out for him.
If you think it’s a bad deal, you’re entitled to that opinion. But you’re also not really acknowledging that free agency can A.) backfire and B.) be an enormously stressful process for some guys — a process with which they simply don’t want to deal for several months.
There’s 29 other teams in free agency but not all of them plan on getting a mid/back of the rotation pitcher, plus the much more competition for Estrada in free agency as well. What if other teams like or want Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Doug Fister, Andrew Cashner and others more and he ends up without a market and has to settle for 1 year and 8-9 million?
WC Ryan: Wise people say the best way to get out of a hole is to stop digging yourself deeper.
Why is it so HARD for you to understand that there are good choices and bad choices? Foregoing free agency when you are already basically there falls into the latter category.
Yeah, worst case scenario is other teams don’t drive up his price and he just goes back to the Jays. It’s not trolling to have a different opinion than you.
Yeah. Wise people also know that I was aware from the start that Christian Bethancourt cleared waivers
$13m is a lot of money considering the circumstances, but there is really no such thing as a bad 1-year deal from the team’s perspective. Estrada better not hope for a Seth Smith situation tho.
I wonder if that’s how EE thought last year, and then Toronto signed Morales and he was no longer an option. If Estrada is happy in Toronto, why give the team an opportunity to find a different fit?
The Jays would feel pressured to up the ante if he has other teams bidding on him is the reason why he would do that.
Just like they felt pressured to up the ante with Encarnacion…you know, when they immediately signed a replacement when he didn’t accept their early offer.
Yeah, cuz it’s going to be the exact same outcome every time a player doesn’t take an extension, right?
“Christian Bethancourt”? non sequitur….
Between WCRyan and Jimmertee, those multiple, repetitive posts are NOT getting Rave Reviews here.
If only the Jays or Padres would sign Peter O’Brien — then we’d have some real fireworks !
Like your multiple repetitive posts about Bethancourt clearing waivers?
Please clarify how Stroman could have much better health then he’s had this year. He’ll top 200 innings and 32 GS, it appears.
I was intending to refer to them all as a collective unit, but you’re right that it doesn’t read that way. Fixed, thanks.
This guy has a 4.84 ERA and has a date against Yankees and Red Sox, final 2 starts of the season.
Take the extension and play where you’re comfortable. One or two bad starts, and that ERA jumps past 5, and then he’s lucky to get a ML contract, Take the extension — and play one more year where he loves playing. Anything near the salary he’s making this year, is a win for him.
Also, who’s to say the Jays offer’s still up if FA waters yield nothing for him? (Strong possibility, if ERA>5. Nobody wants him, especially anywhere near the $14MM he’s making this year, and value I suspect he’s making close to in this extension. This is a Win-Win- deal all around, and the one time, I wouldn’t blame a player for accepting an extension, weeks before the regular season ends.
Good for Estrada and the Jays to want to continue their relationship, coming to terms this late in the season.
If the Jays felt the same way you do about Estrada they wouldn’t have offered him this extension in the first place. They clearly don’t, however. So they aren’t going to take the contract off the table based on two bad starts against teams they know have strong offenses. Taking an extension when you are a month from free agency is ALWAYS a win for the team and a loss for the player unless it’s a huge overpay like the Giants and Tim Lincecum 4 years ago.
You just contradicted yourself. You can’t say ALWAYS and then immediately provide an example of when it didn’t happen.
You are so concerned with the Dollars. 15 mill now and not have to linger in free agency until possibly right before training camp to pass on say 2 mill is probably worth it for aot of players. He is where he wants to be and will have no headaches in the off season. That’s worth the extra dollars that he may not get in FA.
“Taking an extension when you are a month from free agency is ALWAYS a win for the team and a loss for the player unless it’s a huge overpay like the Giants and Tim Lincecum 4 years ago.”
Once again you have ignored solid advice to put the shovel down.
You don’t appear to understand how markets work. As noted by others above, the player and the team both accept the risks and benefits of re-signing early.
Your assertion cited above rules out the possibility that the player’s agent had already run the numbers on what the player could expect as a FA and that he and the player decided either A) that they wouldn’t do better as a FA or B) that while the player could do better as a FA the risk that the team would move on was not one he was willing to take for the amount of potential gain or C) that the amount of the potential gain as a FA wasn’t worth leaving a city and organization he is already comfortable with.
That’s the part your analysis consistently misses. The Jays are gonna need someone chucking the baseball for them every fifth day or so. If this player tries his luck in FA the team will do so as well. Your argument assumes the Jays will do nothing while the player tests the market. That’s just not realistic.
The Jays will field a team next year, with or without this particular player. If the Jays discover that they can sign Cashner or Harvey (if he’s non-tendered) or someone similarly situated for the same or less money or that they can trade for someone equal or better they may well go for it. Not because they no longer like this player but because they want the security of knowing who’s gonna be in their rotation next year right now. The Jays are paying market rate or close to it in return for knowing now.
Your failure to acknowledge this point is, as others have noted, intellectually dishonest. Cheers.
He doesn’t have to wait out a huge overpay. He could just spend the week gauging interest from other teams and if they aren’t interested, re-up with the Blue Jays before they have gone ahead and signed others to fill his place. He doesn’t have to overplay his hand and wait MONTHS for a bigger contract like EE or Joey Bats.
Yes. Cheers indeed.
“He could just spend the week gauging interest from other teams and if they aren’t interested, re-up with the Blue Jays before they have gone ahead and signed others to fill his place.”
And the Jays could just spend the week gauging the demands of other FAs and other teams and make a few offers. First one in gets the deal.
Come on. You are assuming that there will be a gap between when the player elects FA and when the team replaces him. Don’t assume that as it is in no way guaranteed.
You are also assuming that the Jays would have kept their offer open while the player tested the FA market. Don’t assume that either. It isn’t clear that the Jays offer would have remained open nor would it have been in their interests to keep it open. They would have been operating with a handicap, possibly having the player decide to resign, possibly not, possibly having to allocate funds for his salary and possibly not, possibly having a 3-5th starter signed, possibly not, in return for nothing. Major League organizations don’t operate that way.
MLB organizations aren’t petty. They won’t say “Well you didn’t take our offer before gauging offers from others so we’re taking a million off.” If they think he’s worth it (and they evidently do) they’ll keep it open.
The Jays signing someone else to take Estrada’s place in the first week is not guaranteed either, and probably just as likely as someone else offering him more money.
It isn’t a matter of being petty. Right now both player and team had an idea of what their options were and both decided that this extension worked for them. Once the player elects FA that equation changes for the team. An offer is either accepted or rejected; “I’d like to think about it for a week” isn’t an acceptable response unless the team specifically agrees to give the player that week.
“If they think he’s worth it (and they evidently do) . . .”
With you so far, the Jays do think he is worth it.
” . . . They’ll keep it open.”
That doesn’t follow. If Cashner’s agent calls the Jays and offers the player for $10M next year you expect them to say ‘no’ because they’re still waiting for Stroman to make up his mind? Why in the world would the Jays do that? They would be voluntarily handicapping themselves for no good reason.
Yeah, IF Cashner’s agent does that. He’s not necessarily going to do that and Estrada isn’t necessarily not going to get a better offer from someone else in free agency where he has the right to negotiate with all 30 teams.
After seeing the dollar figure and what Estrada has done this year, he is probably not worth much more than when he is getting. But it is inadvisable to forego free agency when you are already more or less there unless your team offers well over market value (see the Giants and Tim Lincecum).
Cheers.
Nice Westie! You are finally using your intelligence without being over critical. Outstanding!
Um, Ryan, your last two sentences contradict each other.
You are saying that it is inadvisable for a player to resign with his original team even when he likes the city and organization and is being offered ~market salary. Whatever else would he be holding out for other than the small possibility that another team would offer him more than he’s worth?
If that’s what you’d advise I hope you charge for said advice based on the quantum meruit principle.
He’d be holding out for more money from the Blue Jays. And it’s very realistic for him to get that if he has 29 other teams driving up his price. Free agents shoot for overpays and not market value in free agency.
Such a short comment yet so much wrong there.
” . . . It’s very realistic for him to get that if he has 29 other teams driving up his price.”
But he doesn’t have that. Twenty nine other teams will only be bidding for his services in theory, in reality only a few at most will be players. If this player is holding out based on his hope or expectation that the A’s, Rays, Twins, Marlins, Braves, etc. are gonna drive up his price he’s gonna be disappointed. You could probably look around and figure out who the handful, at best, of teams making him an offer will be and where he would slot salary-wise.
“Free agents shoot for overpays and not market value in free agency.”
Like to see how you justify this bold statement. Free agents try to demonstrate that their services haven’t been properly priced yet.
The occasional overpays are included in the overall numbers one would use when estimating what the player could expect as a FA. If you are “shooting” for something that isn’t included in your market analysis either your analysis was defective or your expectations are unrealistic.
“He’d be holding out for more money from the Blue Jays.”
And the Jays may have already decided that their previous offer represents the maximum that he is worth to them. Holding out for more money from the Jays may well have resulted in him ending up with less money from someone else. Caveat emptor.
Ian Desmond turned down $107MM over seven years from the Nationals in the spring of 2014, settling for a two-year, $17.5MM deal to take him through 2015 and free agency (And “have all 30 teams bid for his services”) But a down year in 2015 forced him to settle for a one-year $8MM deal with Rangers. After solid season in Texas, Desmond was rewarded with a five-year, $70MM contract with the Rockies that redeemed that initial decision — but the choice cost him more than $10MM , covering eight years of his career. If his club option for 2022 gets picked up, that nets him another $13MM , which puts him in the ballpark of the Nats original offer, he turned down, but spread over nine years, not seven, with the difference in AAV meaning he’ll have made $3MM LESS per year from his original decision to REJECTING THAT EXTENSION to buy out his final 2 years of arbitration, and test free agency.
Am I faulting Desmond? No. Hindsight’s 20/20 and I probably would’ve done the same thing, But rejecting guaranteed money from extensions to test FA isn’t fool proof and you’re not guaranteed to make more– even if you test FA. In the case of Desmond, he even got $17.5MM for his 2 years leading to FA– further reducing risk – theoretically- and only needed to crack $89.5MM to make more than Nats extension offer ($107MM-17.5M 2 Arb years)
Source: This fascinating read espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=13725
Rejecting Extensions to test FA isn’t always rewarding, and Estrada has the most to lose. You seem so sure the Jays offer would stand– after rejecting it — and after two very likely Brutal outings, against two of the best teams in baseball to finish off the season.
This is the same team by the way—that was quick to move after EE rejected their four year $80MM earlier in free agency last year. Was the offer still there? No. They quickly signed Morales, after EE rejected their offer and had to take $20MM LESS in guaranteed money (If he has 3 great seasons for Cleveland, the Indians are likely to pick up his option and he’ll end up making the same kind of money, he WOULDVE made with TOR guaranteed) Let me ask you, who means more to the Jays franchise. EE or Estrada? Out of all these players Estrada has the most to lose. You know contracts are rewarded based on season performances, right? And I honestly believe, if Estrada ends the season with an ERA over 5 (31GS sample size, no less) he’d be lucky to get a major league contract—and your advice would cost him the $13MM he got from this extension—millions of dollars at the very minimum.
Not an apt comparison. Desmond was two years from free agency at the time. Estrada was a month away. Plenty of things can (and did) happen to change how the Nats viewed Desmond in the span of two years. Nothing Estrada does in the next month will have that kind of an effect.
No, I don’t think two bad starts against teams with great offenses (which, we don’t even know how Estrada will fare in those starts yet) will change how any team views a given starter.
“Nothing Estrada does in the next month will have that kind of an effect”
He pitches agianst the YANKEES and RED SOX to close the season!! His stats are most likely, going to be even more terrible to end the year– the same stats– that will get him paid.
Contract negotiation is all about leverage. He has a 4.84 ERA in 31GS, which simply put–is terrible. I doubt the Yanks and Red Sox help his case much to close the season.
If he had the auducity to reject what I think is a generous offer, from the Jays, I think they’ll move on, similar to what they did with EE last year- or nerf the offer if they feel his market depreciated with an even more Bloated ERA than his current 4.84 mark.
I can only imagine what 2 hypothetical terrible outings, against these teams would do to his market, had he rejected the extension.
If he bombs his final 2 outings agianst Yanks+ Red Sox, two brutal opponents fighting for their division title with 10 games to go, I can honestly could see his ERA approaching or exceeding 6.00 in 33GS Sample size which shouldn’t get you $13MM, much less $1MM for a 34 year old starter.
Two bad starts (starts he has certainly had in the past along with good ones) would not have hurt his earning potential. You just don’t understand and that’s ok.
You’re right Ryan. I don’t understand.
Can you please explain to me,
If Estrada fails agianst his remaining starts agianst Yanks and Red Sox (we dont know the future) his 2017 ERA is >5 in 33 Games Started. Other than your premise 30 nonexistent teams bidding on 34 y.o starter starter with hypothetical ERA in the 5-6 range, can you please explain what other teams would see in Estrada, to exceed $13MM?
I’m not saying they would. I’m saying that they might and if they do then it might put pressure on the Jays to up their ante and if they don’t then Estrada doesn’t lose much if anything.
Teams look at the big picture, not two random starts. Clayton Kershaw has had at least two bad starts this year. The Jays already have a good idea of what they have in Marco Estrada, who has been with the team for three years now, Regardless of your, my, or anyone’s opinion of Estrada, they clearly like him. That’s not going to change based on two bad starts.
Two bad starts aren’t going to change a teams mind about pursuing him. He’s been good since the end of July anyways though, so expecting him to get blown out in back to back starts isn’t really realistic anyways
Wow. Figured it would be more in the 9-10 range.
It looks like market value to me for his healthy past performance. Unfortunately it doesn’t take into account the unhealthy aspects. As I correctly called in spring training this past year, that Estrada was going to take a step back in performance from last year, next year will be even worse, there will be a major step back again. His back isn’t what it was despite media and the Jays claiming he is fine. He loses the ability to fully control his core went he delivers his pitches. This is a core or back issue. It comes and goes and it is a sign of injury or aging.
If you respond to my comment, please be polite. time will bare out what I am seeing and saying. Just wait for it.
Because of what I see coming, my price for Estrada would have been in the 3-5 mill range. Perhaps other teams would give him more, but they don’t [correctly] see what I see an aging 5th starter with injury issues. #scoutseyes
Mr. Scout may be right, but the signing makes a lot of sense for all parties. It is the player’s choice above all, and no one else trods in his spikes.
We shall see if scouts’ eyes lead to the Jays’ version of Little Big Horn.
Don’t get me wrong, I am happy to have Estrada back on board with the Jays, except they are paying him like a healthy #3 when he is a borderline healthy #5. In order to minimize the rebuild time and maximize winning, I suggest that the Jays still need to sign an elite #1 starter, a [healthy] #3, a rightfielder, a shortstop to replace Tulo who moves to 3rd, cut barney, sign a solid left-handed hitting catcher, trade Donaldson now to maximize return, trade Travis, move Sanchez to the pen, and sign a lead off guy. In this context, we can see what is needed. Are the Jays mgmt willing to do what it takes?
And while were at it, the following list of current Jays can be cut/let go and the spot upgraded: Montero, Maile, Lopez, Refsynder, Bautista[sadly], Campos, Rowley, Valdez. I like the idea at looking more at Andersen, Saunders and Koehler -the latter two for non-starting roles.
Your solution is to grow money on trees? Innovative
Lmao yes!
The Blue Jays are in last place and consist mostly of players in their early to mid 30’s who have declined. Their system has few intriguing prospects but they’re all in A ball. None of them will likely sniff the big leagues in 2018, let alone be a big contributor. Yet the Jays decide to re-sign one of those mid-30s guys.
From 2013 through 2015 the Phillies kept adding aging veterans to patch things on the hope that their terrible finishes were a mirage. It never worked. It’s not likely to work for the Blue Jays either.
I have to agree. Many times an organization signs declining veterans as a bridge to prospects who need another year in the minors, but for TOR at this stages those are bridges to nowhere. Hopefully they’ll snag some quality prospects next year when they inevitably have to sell off many of their ML assets.
Right on. What I have been saying for a while. So why are the Jay’s doing this? Mark Shapiro is a smart guy. They are doing this intentionally for money. They hope to keep the seats filled while they build a farm system. Admirable goal, but nonsense. It doesn’t work. It will create years of mediocrity while the waiting for the “farm system to build thing” happens. Yet they say “we are going to compete.” Don’t buy-in to that Kool-aid. There is no compete for 2018. I suggest that we don’t buy tickets and force them to blow it up now. Let’s speed this rebuild up. Solaris601 has it correct, “bridges to nowhere”.
So by not buying tickets, you think it will encourage the management to blow up the team? Here’s what happens then. Rogers decides they need to compete on the cheap, because they aren’t making money like they did before. Our homegrown stars will be sold off prior to their expensive arbitration years. We will end up signing second and third tier free agents. We end up in 3rd, 4th, or 5th each year, and out of the wild card by August 1st. Sound familiar? Be a fan. Watch the games. Go a to a couple games a year. Buy a jersey. Be supportive. Negativity breeds losing.
Sounds nice but what is really going on behind the scenes has nothing to do with your argument. When the Jays are doing well, Rogers cell phone service sales goes way up and complaints go way down. Rogers is the richest owner in all of MLB and can afford a $500 mill player budget if it wants. They will not skimp on players if the stars are sold off or ticket sales falter. Won’t happen. Zero chance of that. In fact they will spend more. Rumor[fact] has it that Shapiro/Adkins were “asked” by the Rogers Board to sign Bautista at any price [rightfully] beleiving his add was good for the Rogers business.
The current malaise comes from the lack of commitment and poor scouting at the major league level from the Jays Mgmt team. They wrongfully assessed this team as competative and they wrongfully scouted most of the pieces they put in place to fill vacancies on the team.
I beleive that by not buying tickets, it will signal to the Board and Mgmt team that more drastic action is needed, not the opposite of skimping and operating on the cheap. Operating on the cheap for the Jays is not a part of the current Rogers Board culture.
Seriously — Have you presented the Jays with your credentials? Why waste your scout’s eye on futilely trying to illuminate us, the stubborn fans, when you can actually HELP your favorite team, instead of dissing them constantly on forums like this? The Jays don’t make decisions based on what we say here. If what you say is true, they need help.
If you have the talent and the passion you say you have, why do you squander it sticking around on fan-oriented sites?
I would love to work in professional basbeall and especially for the Jays, but I don’t think it is in the cards at the moment anyways. I did try once to apply to all major league teams but it is a very norrow door of opportunities.
Guys like Alex Anthopoulos started in their teens as interns and worked for 25+ years before they could get where they are today. It helps to know someone which I do not. Having said that, the last time I applied, I did get a invite and job offer from the Atlanta Braves, but when I asked the question about compensation, I was told it was an intern type position and that I couldn’t likely afford to drive a nice car and live in a safe neighborhood. [no joke], that actually was said.
At the time I was also looking at business alternative jobs that paid 2.5 times what the baseball jobs were paying so I did the business route and was very successful.
Your question/comment is a good one. Perhaps I’ll try again someday. I am currently the President and CEO of a small company in Middle to Northern Ontario who happens to have a God given scouting gift with a huge passion for the Jays to be successful.
Obviously your special talents are so wasted here.
You could volunteer if you really believe in the cause.
Think of using the time you spend here in doing research for your Jays, instead of trying to educate us recalcitrants.
Yeah, right, mister Scout! We can all work for a MLB organization. We are all superstars on here in our own words. I tried to buy a team but was out bid.
You don’t know how right you are Lester about good ole Jimmie!
Yes I do. Thanks.
Lester, you’re my favourite
You are more than welcome Mister Lester! Way to go brother!
Or, we MLBTR readers could start a GoFundMe effort to pay for you to join the Jays FO.
We’d sure miss you here, but it’s a classic win-win-win situation — win for your scout’s eye, win for Jays FO talent, and win for us, knowing that we’ve done a Good Thing …..
I’d ante $10 to start it off. Altruism at its best !
Lol. Classic.
You’re a good sport, Jimmie.
Jimmie is not a good sport, X.. He thinks he has everyone on here fooled by his outrageuos claims about being a scout because of his reasoning.
The Blue Jays needs to sign Derek Holland he would make the whole starting rotation awesome. The can get him cheap enough and for a long contract to
Oh yeah! Gotta keep that winning core together. Glad they didn’t trade anyone, I mean who needs prospects anyways?
They used Francisco Liriano and Nori Aoki to effectively buy a Major League-ready corner outfielder (Teoscar Hernandez) from the Astros.
Hernandez is a very good acquisition by the Jays. I say more of those types of deals. I hope he does well. I see him ulitmately as a 4th outfielder with a very good bat. He needs a little more time to get used to major league pitching and learn good agressive running on the basepaths.
Atkins and Shapiro have both stated multiple times that they intend to contend and use veterans while they build up the farm system. They did well the first year and not so well this year. They have way more position players nearing the majors than they do pitchers so they signed Estrada to help bridge that gap. I think Jays management is targeting 2019 as a big year because at that point you will have Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Anthony Alford, Urena, and others hitting the majors. You may see Teoscar Hernanadez and Alford and Urena get majors time in 2018 to supplement the regulars. Assuming Sanchez can start, I expect that they will have Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, Estrada and quite possibly, Ryan Borucki, who is the only Jays pitching prospect ready for the majors. He was extremely effective over 3 levels of ball and some say he reminds them of Jimmy Key. In 2019 you will see other prospect pitchers probably hitting the majors as 2018 is important for the pitchers to make strides. They have a young prospect named Pearson who has dominated in A ball, hitting 100mph, and is doing his best Sydergard impersonation down there. At some point next year, you could have an outfield of Pomponi, Hernandez, and Alford, which would be fun to watch as all three bring top end speed and athleticism. And, we haven’t even discussed the catchers in the Jays farm system which may be the best collection in all of baseball.
Agreed the future looks somewhat bright but with good Mgmt decisions they can win now too and it can be done with the right decisions, not the mostly bone-head ones we have seen over the last few years. . FYI, Alford looks like a keeper, better than Moseby for a reference. Bichette not so much-he is going to be just average. Pompey might never play again as a starter in the major although he can run and steal bags. There are lots of holes and lots of mediocrity if they are going to stick to this strategy. It won’t be 2019 before they are good again, more like 2021. That is why I am calling out for change.
Big Jimmie? Call the front office & I am confident that they will listen to whatever change you are calling for. You don’t have a clue & I guess that pretending makes you feel good about yourself so have fun because not many people are buying into your scouts eye contact or anything else that you claim to be true about yourself. When I purchase my MLB team, I WILL hire you to head up my scouting department. It will be a g day now, Jimmie!
Idk, this seems kinda optimistic. Pearson has major reliever risk, scouts have long since soured on McGuire and Pentecost (if those are the other catchers you’re referring to, I know Jansen looks ok). Their system is good, no doubt, and Guerrero and Bichette give them potential superstars, but I’d have given serious consideration to a retool. Morales’ contract is underwater, their major – league depth is terrible, and they’ve got a lot of holes around the diamond. I personally would’ve moved Donaldson, let Estrada depart and started looking forward to 2019, but we’ll see…
You can decide to compete while you’re rebuilding but if you don’t have the talent on your team you won’t compete. They have two regulars that are above 2 fWAR, one of whom had never been above 0.7 in a season before. Stroman, Sanchez, if healthy, and Osuna are good players but Happ and Estrada are in their mid-30’s and that’s a time pitchers fall off a cliff. Roy Halladay had an 8,9 WAR at age 34 and 0.9 at age 35.
While Guerrero and Bichette are top prospects both of them spent the majority of the year in low A. At their ages they’ll probably start next season at high A and, if they play well, they’ll finish at AA. If everything goes right they could see the majors in 2019 but these guys are very young. There are going to be hiccups. J.P. Crawford was the youngest player in the International League in 2016 but didn’t play well and spent over a year there before starting to dominate.
Even if they hit the majors in 2019 it might take them a while to become good players. Not everyone lights the league on fire when they come up. Mike Trout didn’t and he’s the best there is.
The problem for the Jays is that while there’s some top talent in their system there isn’t enough of it to make up for all their Major League holes. If they try to compete the next couple of years they’re likely to extend their time at the bottom.
When he signed the previous 2 year commitment he was pretty upset days later, telling the press he was misinformed by his agent and felt pressured, didn’t realize he could have gotten a larger deal on the open market. This feels like a repeat.
I don’t know if he could have found more than 13/yr on the open market.
Where did he say this? I read everything I can find on the Jays and have never seen a hint of this. Actually have read just the opposite -that comfort was more important than dollars.
FYI, Info was released and clarified tonight that Estrada has a hiernated disk in his back and the Jays signed him and paid the 13 mill anyway. Perhaps this is why my scouting eye is seeing problems. He has trouble getting over the top and through his delivery. Over the past number of starts it has gone well, but earlier this year not so much. The Jays are really rolling the dice here. He wouldn’t have passed a medical with many other clubs. Perhaps that is why he took the deal. The Jays still need to sign an Elite #1 starter and a healthy #3 if they are to compete in 2018.
“Don’t get me wrong, I am happy to have Estrada back on board with the Jays, ”
Which is it?
Your scout eye Jimmie? More like your brown eye. Wow! We are all scouts, experts, GMs, & anything else that we pretend to be behind our computer screens. We can be anything that we want when. no one knows us. Move out of your Mamie’s house big Jimmie & live a real life. Me, Jimmie? I am looking to buy a MLB team & will call you to become my director of scouting! See what I mean?
If youre so talented why have you been religated to commenting here and not working in the MLB? you probably thought the original Lind for Estrada was bad. I loved it and love this deal
Outstanding, Richard! Jimmie doesn’t have a clue.