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Meaningful baseball in 2017 came to an end Wednesday for the Angels, whose loss to the White Sox eliminated them from American League wild-card contention. On one hand, given the multitude of injuries to their pitching staff and Mike Trout’s absence from late May through mid-July, it’s commendable that the Angels hung in the race until the final week of the season. On the other, Trout is now another year closer to free agency and, by no real fault of his own, still hasn’t won a playoff game in his remarkable career.
With only three years remaining on Trout’s contract, time could be running out for the Angels to capitalize on having the best player on the planet on their roster. General manager Billy Eppler will have to augment the talent around Trout during the upcoming offseason, then, in hopes of snapping a three-year playoff drought in 2018 and contending for a title with the perennial MVP candidate in the fold. These areas figure to garner Eppler’s attention over the next few months…
1.) Get an answer from Justin Upton:
The Angels stunningly acquired the left fielder from the Tigers on Aug. 31, knowing full well it could either be a long-term marriage or a one-month stand. Upton will enter the offseason with four years and $88.5MM left on his contract, but he’ll have a chance to opt out of the deal after the World Series.
As a .274/.361/.544 hitter with 35 home runs in 624 plate appearances – including a .247/.356/.551, seven-HR showing in 104 PAs as an Angel – the 30-year-old looks like a strong candidate to vacate his pact and revisit free agency. Perhaps the Angels could prevent that from happening by tacking a couple more big-money years on the arrangement. Otherwise, losing Upton would leave the team scrambling for a capable complement to Trout.
If that’s not Upton in 2018, the best option in free agency will be one of his ex-Tigers teammates, Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez who has absolutely terrorized opposing pitchers since his 2014 breakout and is amid a career offensive season. Others in the class of impending free agent corner outfielders aren’t nearly as appealing as Upton or Martinez, but one of those lesser players (or a trade acquisition) could patrol left for the Angels in 2018 if they don’t reel in either of the big fish. Regardless, improving an offense that ranks 23rd in FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric and 24th in runs is the Angels’ No. 1 priority heading into the offseason.
“The obvious talking point this winter is going to be our offense,” manager Mike Scioscia said Wednesday (via Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times).
At .228/.306/.337, the Angels have posted a major league-worst line against left-handed pitching this year, making a star-caliber righty-swinger like Upton or Martinez that much more of a fit for the club going forward.
2.) The infield: Andrelton Simmons and …?
The Angels are set at shortstop with Simmons, but their infield is otherwise rife with questions. Third baseman Yunel Escobar is an impending free agent and probably won’t be back, according to Moura, while second baseman Brandon Phillips’ deal is also up. Over at first base, the Angels rank 27th in fWAR (0.3) and have batted a weak .211/.290/.413, though they have gotten quality second-half production there from C.J. Cron. They’ll also have first baseman/third baseman Luis Valbuena on the books for $8MM in 2018, so even though he hasn’t performed well this year, he still seems likely to factor in next season.
While it’s possible the Angels will stick with Cron and Valbuena at first base, second and third are begging for upgrades. A wild card at either position may be the Reds’ Zack Cozart, who could improve his market over the winter if he shows a willingness to move off shortstop. In terms of conventional second basemen, Eduardo Nunez, old friend Howie Kendrick and Neil Walker, whom the Angels tried to acquire via trade a couple years ago, represent the best soon-to-be free agents, while Ian Kinsler, Dee Gordon, Jed Lowrie, Josh Harrison and Yangervis Solarte are among potential trade candidates.
Any of Nunez, Lowrie, Harrison or Solarte could also offer a solution at the hot corner, where Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier are the top free agents-to-be. Moustakas is a Los Angeles native, which might help the Angels in a potential pursuit, but he’s also a Scott Boras client who figures to pull in one of the richest contracts of the offseason.
3.) Improve the rotation:
The good news here is that No. 1 starter Garrett Richards fared well in his September return from a right biceps issue that limited him to 27 2/3 innings this year. Barring another injury, he’s primed to sit atop the Angels’ rotation in 2018. Richards isn’t the only Angels starter who has endured an injury-shortened season (two years in his case), of course, as availability has also been an issue with J.C. Ramirez, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs, Alex Meyer and Andrew Heaney. With the exception of Meyer, who’s likely to miss 2018 after undergoing surgery this month on a torn shoulder labrum, all of those hurlers (and Parker Bridwell) could be factors in the Angels’ rotation next year. Still, considering the alarming history of injuries to Richards, Skaggs and Heaney, it would behoove Eppler to seek at least one dependable starter in the offseason.
Given the thinness of the Angels’ farm system, it’s unlikely they’ll put together a trade for a big-time starter, but they could turn to free agency for someone like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb, to name a pair of second-tier options, if they don’t land any of the more high-profile hurlers (Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish or possibly Masahiro Tanaka, whom Eppler knows from his time in the Yankees’ front office). While every GM with a pulse figures to at least kick the tires on Japanese ace/slugger Shohei Otani if he immigrates to the majors in the offseason, a lack of available at-bats in Anaheim is one factor that could work against a successful Angels pursuit. The Halos are stuck with a severely declining Albert Pujols at designated hitter, so they wouldn’t be able to guarantee many ABs to Otani.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Keep Upton. Sign Moustakas. Sign Chatwood and trade for another starter.
That’s a lot of money. Boras is going to market Moose as a latter-day Mike Schmidt
There won’t be a big market for third baseman. The Angels and Giants are the only big spenders who will be looking for third baseman.
The Yankees are trying to get your attention, since their 3B is soon-to-be FA Frazier and that leaves them with Chase Headley.
Headley will shift to third and Bird will be the everyday first basemen. They only need a stop gap at third because they’ll be in pursuit of Machado next year
I believe the phillies will out slug the yankees for machado, they will have plenty of money
The Royals are almost for sure going to give him a qualifying offer. I wouldn’t give up a draft pick for an aging 3rd Baseman when your farm system looks like that, but that’s just me.
Not inclined to agree with you under the circumstances, namely that Trout is three years away from free agency, and Eppler’s just one more playoff-free season or less from increased pressure to either build a winner or finally go into a full rebuild.
I’m 100% against ever trading a transcendent, once-in-a-generation player like Trout, yet there will be a crescendo of voices arguing for such a trade if LAA doesn’t contend in 2018.
Aging third baseman? He is 29 and still in his prime.
Not a 1st round pick. A couple of later picks is nothing compared to an established big leauger. Every human on planet earth is aging
That is false.
How?
Lowrie at 2nd, Moose at Third, Dyson in LF, Cobb for the rotation, Watson and/or Neshek for the pen
A few but not spectacular pieces should get Lowrie, 5/110 should get Moose, 2/16 should get Dyson, 3/40 should get Cobb, and 2/13 should get Watson or Neshek
Boras will want longer and more money for Moose…
I think you’re underestimating the market for cobb
Lowrie and Cobb seem like good fits for the Angels. I think they’re top goal should be retaining Upton or trying to sign JD Martinez
Cobb is like Skaggs. Always injured. Would rather get Chatwood. His road era would be closer to what his era would be with the Angels.
Angels should be aggressive in FA. Moose, JD Martinez and one of Darvish/Arrieta could all be possible for them.
Except for the fact that Moreno is a tightwad who refuses to go over the luxury tax line. Even if Upton opts out the Angels will have about $92M tied up to 6 players. Add in arb raises and they’re well over $100M. Moreno might have $50-60M to fill out holes all over the roster. If Upton doesn’t opt out then Moreno will have next to nothing.
Don’t see how having one of the top payrolls in all of sports make Moreno a “tightwad”. Sure, he doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax, but he’s not alone. Only 4 (maybe 5) teams have ever paid the luxury tax, and most of the 25 that haven’t do not have payrolls anywhere close to the Angels.
Angels are 1 roughly 6 teams who have every exceeded the Luxury Tax threshold. Angels have $230 million committed to players, assuming Calhoun’s option is picked up and Upton is still an Angel, in 2020 with the Luxury Tax going up to $206 million in 2019.
I see more of the same approach to build a solid team Eppler has been doing. I just don’t see Moose fitting into those plans with the way Payroll is going to be in 2020. Cowart is an above average fielder at 3rd. I see time split between him, Valbuena.
Not sure where you get that $230M figure for Angels players. I believe they bumped over the tax once, but never significantly. The luxury tax is based on AAV of contracts, not the actual total a team is paying players per year.
It’s from baseball-reference.com. It totals all the salaries, plus the projected arbitration and pre-arb guys. They have the salaries laid out for several years. It’s an aggregate but not an AAV. But I can’t imagine the AAV being significantly lower. Hopefully it is.
Arte went over the cap once in 2004. I think about 900k or so. But he’s only 1 of 6 teams to do so, so between that and the Pujols/Hamilton contracts, I don’t get where the cheap/tightwad comments come from.
Cozart could be a good fit as well. I think that move to the Angels makes too much sense
It’s probably not smart for the Angels to blow their payroll up again by signing all these mega free agents to long-term contracts, because it’s not likely going to get them a championship at this point, and doing so will force them to delay/avoid the inevitable (trading Trout), and then when he leaves in three years their team will be atrocious.
The Angels should approach this offseason as a one last gasp attempt to develop something while they have Trout, and if it doesn’t work then deal him next winter to the highest bidder. If they sign players to big, long-term deals it’ll only hurt them in the long run.
Trading Trout is not, will never be, an option for Eppler.
Fans of every other team talk about what an inevitability it is, except that the Angels have no motivation to trade Trout, and no team will gut its farm system to make such a deal—why should they? The return on Chris Sale is nothing compared to the value of a player who has returned >55 WAR in his first 6 seasons. He’s outperforming his contract—again, no incentive to trade him.
Besides which, he has full NTC…
Trout so valuable of a player that there is no value in any proposed trades for trout. Angels won’t get the players they want and the other teams won’t kill there farm system for him. Angels have better luck resigning trout to a mega deal that would probably involve giving trout a stake in the team. As of now they need to convince uptown on staying or sign jd Martinez, trade for dee Gordon and platoon valbuena and cowart at 3rd for the year. Also pick up a BP piece and try to get otani or a top of the rotation SP.
Love to think Angels had a shot at Otani, but DH is spoken for in the seasons to come, and if he truly wants to be in the lineup 5-7 days a week, Pujols would need to go back to full-time 1B. That seems unlikely, especially since the plan has been to keep him off his feet.
As a Yankee fan, I would love to get Trout in a trade, but if I were Moreno, I would look to surround Trout with upgrades, from free agency, but I would do it with 3 year deals, so when Trout leaves so does the supporting cast. Zack Cozart or Eduardo Nunez at 3rd. Neil Walker at 2nd. Austin Jackson in LF. And Carlos Santana at 1st. These players might actually be worth their money and will not require a no trade clause, and should be attainable for 3 years or less. I might even sign Alex Avila or try to get Tyler Flowers in a trade. Moreno should not worry about luxury tax, if he truly wants to make the Playoffs.Signing Cobb might be a good fit for the rotation.
That’s a lot of holes to fill through FA’s because they don’t have too much to trade to get upgrades. If he’s interested keeping Upton is a great idea. Not sure what salaries are coming off the books but Moose may be out of reach if he wants 6 years, Chatwood is very likely along with Cobb to cost a lot too.
I would like to see the angels look for some more scrap heap relievers and hope to strike gold. Obviously they won’t get the same luck that they had this year, that would be a cheap way of building a solid bullpen.
This team is just getting out of some bad contracts. Eppler has done a good job with under the radar, defensive minded moves, I think they should continue that approach
“While every GM with a pulse figures to at least kick the tires on Japanese ace/slugger Shohei Otani…”
At least 1, likely more than 1, will defy this statement. I wonder which teams/gms would fall in this category? BAL? PHI?
I think it’s funny. The Angels have Hamilton’s contract is finally done that’s 25 million. Nolasco they will buy out his option. Same with Street. That’s another 26 million combined. Chavez won’t be back, that’s over 5 million. Norris is making over 2 million won’t be back. Penning at 2.5 million. Escobar won’t be back that’s another 8 million. Espinosa 5 million will be gone. If Upton doesn’t opt out and the only two players getting raises next season, will be Calhoun and Cron. That will still leave around 50 million for FA signings. Moustakas will be looking at around 20 million per year. Chatwood will be around 15 million per year. That would still leave around 15 million to fill other needs. Yes both Trout and Pujols will both make more money next year. In baseball it’s the average per year. So no their pay increases will not affect what their pay counts against the team payroll.
Angels should probably hope Upton opts out as fielding an entire 25 man roster will be difficult if he doesn’t.
If Upton stays the team will have 112 million committed to merely Upton, Trout, Pujols, Simmons, Valbuena and Calhoun
Based off prior spending levels, that leaves the Angels only about 40-50 million to field the other 19 roster spots, including an entire pitching staff (while Richards will already take nearly 10 million of that limited cash)
Making it worse they have next to nothing which should be counted on to help the 2018 squad in the minors.
It is just way too easy to extract surplus value out of the Corner OF bargain bin for the club to invest that 22 million (and 31 combined between the 2 corners) when they have so many other holes that need filling. Since the cant undo the ill-advised trade, I would at least be trying to do everything possible to show Upton they hope he walks
If Upton doesn’t walk then I really don’t see how they can sign one of the desirable guys for Second and Third plus fill out a Rotation, Bullpen and Bench with enough quality to be taken serious as a contender
Upton, Trout, Pujols, Simmons, Valbuena, and Calhoun would have $94.5 million committed to them. Payroll is based on Average Annual Salary.
Upton: $22.125 million
Trout: $24 million
Pujols: $24 million
Valbuena: $7.5 million
Simmons: $8.3 million
Calhoun: $8.6 million
What in the heck does AAV have to do with absolutely anything?
The Angels will not exceed roughly 160 Million in salary.
If Upton stays, they would have 112 million committed to merely Upton, Trout, Pujols, Simmons, Valbuena and Calhoun (plus a couple buyouts)
That leaves only about 50 Million to spend on the remaining 19 needed players
Assuming they keep Richards plus sign Moose and a mid-high tier SP (as so many here desire) the added cost of those 3 will likely be somewhere in the range of 35-40 Million combined – leaving the Angels only about 10-15 million to fill 16 spots.
Not gonna happen. In fact it’s actually impossible to do short of fielding 16 league minimum players
The Angels will do exactly what they did this last 2 off seasons to fill their holes; try to trade for stopgaps and otherwise bargain basement shop
Angela payroll this season was actually about $189 million.
twitter.com/JeffFletcherOCR/status/903711732027273…
That’s their near-end of season luxury tax payroll – not their opening day payroll
Art Moreno has set an Opening Day payroll which he has stuck to for years and promises to stick to again.
Well, things could change. Angels only have 3 more years guaranteed of Mike Trout (unless they sign another extension). Maybe Moreno finally realizes he’s going to need to spend some extra cash in order to have a playoff team in 2018 ……. We’ll see.
The problem is, the 165 he has spent the last two years IS him “spending some extra cash in order to have a playoff team” – the last 2 seasons WERE the splurging. Its 15 million above the top of his stated budget.
…despite that, the team didn’t make the playoffs either year. In fact, didn’t even finish above 500 either year. And the team couldn’t even fill all their many holes on the roster either year too. This despite having payrolls 20 million above their next highest in franchise history, and he may just have even exceeded the LuxTax this season (you need to add around 20 million to the salary for bonuses and benefits, they had to use so many added guys because of injury, and they brought in a couple more million in Upton and Phillips. They are likely within striking range of the threshold right now, and possibly went over – and that’s with just a 166 starting point)
So not only does he say he has a very specific salary range, and not only does he have a track record of staying within that specific range, he might not be able to really go above 160 (which is already a slightly exceeded range) without threatening the threshold even if he wanted to.
So again, no one should expect an opening day salary much above 160, and you are not going to be adding a couple big name FAs on a 160 budget if Upton sticks around; the math is basically impossible.
That’s why I started this by saying the Angels better pray Upton opts out as it is likely their only chance of filling the holes with enough talent to seriously compete. If he stays then you should probably expect 2018 to look extremely similar to 2017 and years prior – stopgaps thru trade and bargain bin signings
The Angels need to sign Derek Holland for either a bull pen piece or for the starting rotation. He comes cheap enough and can sign him to either a 2 to 4 year deal
The Angels would be wise to offer Holland an invitation to spring training and nothing more. That goes for all teams.
Yea if they want to look like idiots maybe.
It seems these days to give a pitcher big bucks is very dangerous(they seem to drop like flys). Uptown would be wise to stay. With second, third and possibly left in need of big improvement,
the Angels and Mike Scioscia and Billie Eppler should be commended for going this far.
However, they either spend like crazy or have 50 cents to spend. Hopefully, Billie gets some bucks to work with now that Hamilton is history.
Add years on to Upton contract, you can look at that as basically deferred money kinda like the way Nationals do with every contract. Bring in Gardner to play of ( with Yankees eating some money). Dyson as fourth of. Try to swing trades for Franco (Phillies) and Gennett ( Reds) then sign Chatwood and maybe a couple second tier relievers. Also see what the price is on 1bs Aguilera from the Brewers. Maybe even get Susac too
I kinda like the Angels as a trade partner for Gardner. Would be a massive upgrade over their internal options in LF, moderate salary, would cost one of their better prospects (Chris Rodriguez maybe), but he seems to be a bit superfluous in NY
Angels will have $94.5 million committed to Trout, Pujols, Simmons, Valbuena, Calhoun, and Upton (if he stays).
Trout: $24 million
Pujols $24 million
Simmons: $8.3 million
Valbuena: $7.5 million
Calhoun: $8.6 million
Upton: $22.125 million
Then you add in the roughly $25-27 million for arbitrations.
The tax threshold for teams in 2018 will be $197 million.
Repeating that multiple times does not make it any less irrelevant
– quote
“It has never been about that,” Moreno said in an exclusive interview with MLB.com, refuting multiple reports and a widespread belief that he is categorically against exceeding that mark. “It has never been with the threshold.”
The Angels enter the season with a projected Opening Day payroll of about $165 million, a club record that is roughly $20 million ahead of where they began last season. Moreno said his operating budget is supposed to sit somewhere in the $140 million to $150 million range.
“We have a budget,” Moreno said. “And every year, I’ve overspent our budget.”
– end quote
The team is not going to have an opening day payroll above roughly 160 million
Wow you are special. The Angels opening day payroll this season was around 185 million. It has been in that range for the past 6 seasons.
Angels opening day payroll:
2017 $166,375,833
2016 $164,673,333
2015 $146,341,583
2014 $154,546,500
2013 $137,271,250
2012 $151,381,000
2011 $141,755,666
So I don’t know wtf you’re talking about, but reality sure as heck ain’t it
And sure, you can ignore both the teams History and Art Morenos actual words to hold onto your fantasies if you like, but…
Angels Payroll
twitter.com/JeffFletcherOCR/status/903711732027273…
Uhm, no…
baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/l…
Again, you’re trying to use end-of year calculations after a seasons worth of replacements and such as if it is opening day payroll. It isn’t remotely the same
As Art Moreno talked about in the interview I quoted above, Payroll will once again fall within that roughly 160 Million range
To expect anything different is to ignore both Morenos actual words and his History of actions – in other words, its fantasy
I have no dispute with your math but I don’t see how that quoted interview corroborates your near-guarantee of a $160ish opening day payroll in 2018..
After Moreno declaries that his decisions are not affected by the luxury tax threshold , he gives the range where his “operating budget” is supposed to sit. Besides the fact that “operating budget” and “opening day payroll” are not interchangeable terms, he specifically states that while they have a budget “EVERY YEAR” he overspends their budget. I don’t see where Moreno gets anywhere close to saying “$160-ish will be the opening day 25-man payroll and I won’t budge from that.”
Moreno is saying the opposite:
1. the luxury tax threshold is not a factor (or not a big factor) in his payroll decisions.
2. He has not once spent within the range of his yearly budget. Overspent “every” year.
The quoted chunk is Moreno refuting a supposed aversion to spending, not confirming it.
The only—ONLY—reason to sign Moustakas is the LH bat. Especially if Upton returns, the Angels will be heavily weighted with RH bats. A bat like Moustakas’s would slot in well among Trout/Upton/Pujols.
What works against the idea is the length and cost of the deal Boras will extract to whatever team signs Moustakas. Any team will overpay. He is less than Machado and Arenado, even less than 2017 Beltre and Sano. This is also a position which is unkind to the body of the player, so a 5-6 year deal for someone already 30 is a huge bet.
Sign. Moustakas. Trade for. Dee. Gordon. Get. Speed top of. Lineup