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As they continued to build back from a full roster teardown, the Phillies finished the 2017 season with a 66-96 record, good for last in the NL East. But their rebuilding process has begun to bear fruit. Thanks in part to contributions from some exciting young rookies, Philadelphia finished the season strong by posting a winning record in September (15-13). The team is now free of the veteran encumbrances that trailed its last competitive window, so it’ll face some questions on how to allocate financial resources.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Odubel Herrera, OF: $26.4MM through 2021 ($11.5MM club option for 2022, $2.5MM buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
- Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
- Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.007) – $1.4MM
- Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM
Free Agents
[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart; Philadelphia Phillies Payroll Overview]
The Phillies already announced in late September that Pete Mackanin will not return as manager in 2018, but will instead assume a role in the front office. Part of the organization’s focus this offseason will be to find a replacement manager who can get the most out of a very young group of players as they develop at the major-league level. Based on their record after the All-Star break (37-38), it seems as though the worst could finally be behind the Phillies after five consecutive losing seasons. Whoever GM Matt Klentak hires as Mackanin’s replacement will likely be managing the next contending team in Philadelphia.
In addition to steps forward for players like Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Aaron Nola, the Phillies also saw impressive contributions from many players promoted during the 2017 season. Rhys Hoskins, Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams all showed well in their first taste of major-league action, with Hoskins in particular looking like a star. Stud shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford saw some playing time in September as well; it’s widely expected that he and fellow infield top prospect Scott Kingery will make major contributions at some point in 2018. Put simply, a major-league club that saw a lot of success from young players this year will see even more reinforcements next season. It’s also worth wondering whether the Phillies will make a push to extend some of these young players. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already mentioned Nola as an extension candidate. Beyond him, Altherr, Hoskins and Williams have all shown enough talent to be worth a look.
As the youth movement reaches its peak in Philadelphia, the payroll has reached its valley. The only contract on the books for the Phillies in 2018 is that of Herrera, who stands to make just $3.35MM. They owe $3.5MM more in the form of buyouts and debts to former players, for a total of less than $6MM guaranteed dollars. Beyond that, only five of their players are even eligible for arbitration, and most of them are either potential trade fodder or non-tender candidates. Given that the Phillies have averaged over $144MM in payroll over the past seven seasons, a big decisions facing the Phillies this winter is how they ought to allocate their dollars. It’s worth mentioning that they’ve got the payroll space and prospect depth to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, should the organization decide he’s a good fit. It will be interesting to see whether they give out any long-term contracts to free agents this season, or opt to make shorter commitments now and wait until next season when the market is flush with high-end talent. They’ll be one of the few teams who’ll be able to afford the services of 2018 free agent juggernauts like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon, any of whom might be worth waiting to negotiate with.
It’s possible that one or both of Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez will open the 2018 season in a different uniform. Galvis stands to make around $7.4MM in arbitration this offseason. Rather than pay that hefty figure for a shortstop with a .287 career OBP, the Phillies would probably prefer to see what they have in top prospect J.P. Crawford. While Hernandez is still under control for three more seasons, the Phillies will likely try to get a look at Kingery at some point in 2018. This could make Hernandez a potential trade asset as well, if the right offer comes along. With such a minuscule payroll, however, they certainly won’t face any pressure to move either player.
With a high-upside youngster tabbed for each position on the diamond, the Phillies are most likely to concentrate their financial resources on pitching. Their starters as a group finished in the bottom third of baseball in ERA last season, and their young staff could benefit from having a seasoned veteran in the rotation. They have the money to spend on a top-of-the market starter like Jake Arrieta, if the front office wants to be aggressive, or any other open-market hurler that holds appeal. Another option would be to make a big push for the coveted Shohei Otani. Indeed there are 29 other teams that will be doing the same, but the potential to join an organization with such a bright future could be a draw for the Japanese phenom. The Phillies will probably want to add a couple of veteran arms to their bullpen as well. Adam Morgan had an incredible second half and cemented himself as a clear fixture behind Hector Neris, but overall the relief corps is in need of support.
Philadelphia had some success last year in taking on bad contracts, eating the salaries of those players and then flipping them for prospects. They acquired left-hander McKenzie Mills for Howie Kendrick, and got infielder Jose Gomez along with right-handers J.D. Hammer and Alejandro Requena in a trade that sent Pat Neshek to the Rockies. Mills, Gomez and Hammer all currently rank within the Phillies’ top 30 prospects (via MLB Pipeline), with Gomez leading the way at #16 in the organization. In essence, the Phillies used their financial muscle to “buy” some upside prospects. It’s a sound strategy. If any of these prospects pan out, it will be as though the Phillies used their extra payroll space last year to save money in the future; more cost-controlled players on the major league club means fewer dollars spent on free agents. It’s easy to imagine the club employing the same strategy during the coming season.
Following five losing seasons and a complete teardown of the major-league roster, the Phillies’ farm is stacked. Even after promoting three top-100 overall prospects last season in Hoskins, Crawford and Alfaro, their system still has four more in Mickey Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, Adam Haseley and Kingery. They also own the #3 overall pick in 2018’s June amateur draft. This abundance of talent in the minors will give the Phillies a wealth of options when they decide to make a playoff push, including the ability to use some of these youngsters as trade chips to fill holes on the roster with established major league talent.
As it stands right now, the Phillies will open the 2018 season with Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. Behind Nola, however, likely follows a messy group of struggling youngsters. Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson and Nick Pivetta all endured major ups and downs last season. Even if they don’t manage to add an elite starter like Arrieta through free agency, they’ll probably opt to sign at least one or two mid-tier options. Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner all come to mind as pitchers who could probably be had on short-term contracts.
With veteran Andres Blanco set to depart in free agency, the Phillies will need a backup infielder to open the season. Blanco himself could be brought back at a cheap price, but he performed below replacement level last year. Outside of Kingery, Philadelphia’s farm system doesn’t really have any major league-ready middle infield options. Stephen Drew, Erick Aybar, Danny Espinosa and Eric Sogard are some examples of cheap veterans they could use to fill in around the infield. On the other hand, they might simply opt to make a low-profile minor league signing instead. They could even test their luck with the Rule 5 Draft; they had great success in identifying Herrera in 2014 and could try to strike gold again.
Third baseman Maikel Franco had a tremendously disappointing 2017 campaign, and it might be time to start looking for other long-term options at the hot corner. Mike Moustakas represents the top option on this year’s free agent market. Todd Frazier is another third baseman they could look into. However, since the Phillies would be considered long shots to contend in 2018, they might be better off giving the 25-year old another chance next season, and explore the free agent market next year if he doesn’t bounce back. At that time, superstars Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson will become available for bidding.
The Phillies will be an interesting team to watch this offseason. They have the financial resources to sign big-name free agents and take on a large contract in a trade, but it’s just as easy to imagine them making only small, short term signings while they continue to evaluate high-upside youngsters at the MLB level. Either way, expect the Phillies to improve on their 2017 record next season. With the wealth of young talent in the organization, the club should be on the rise for several years to come.
Keep finding players to flip at the deadline. Worked out great with Howie and Neshek
It worked out terribly. The Phillies took on $68 million in salary last season and netted no prospects who are in their top 15. The best prospect among them is Rule 5 eligible, but the Phillies won’t have room on their 40 man for him. The Dodgers are getting 4 years of Justin Turner for $64 million.
Neshek got them a really high upside SS and 2 other prospects. Thats a lot for a rental reliever. What else did they take on besides howie, buckholtz and neshek that adds up to 68 million?
Saunders, Gomez, and Benoit. Gomez is a C level prospect who the Phillies are unlikely to add to the 40-man roster in November. He’s an okay return if all the Phillies did was spend $6.5 million for a rental reliever. They had 6 rental players, 7 if you count Andres Blanco. So you need to count all of them when looking at the return.
No, I can assure you that the return for Neshek was not even worth half of six and 1/2 million dollars.
MacPhail/Klentak should have been fired, not Mackanin.
I couldn’t stand Mackanin.
1. Whether a guy makes their top 15 is relative to the talent in their farm. One organizations top 5 guy might not make another organization’s top 20.
2. You are overlooking the fact that the team had to fill roster spots, so, considering this franchise has money to spend, it makes more sense to take a shot on a free agent who you may flip for value than add some 4-A lifer.
3. Sure, if you compare every deal to a deal like Turner’s everything everyone does sucks. 29 other teams didn’t sign Turner by the way.
4. That spent money will have no bearing on their ability to spend money moving forward because the deals were all one-year.
None of the players were in the top 15 in any of the organizations they were traded from. They aren’t good prospects.
The Braves, Reds, and Padres had roster spots to fill and did so cheaply. And the Padres got more in trades for the players they traded. The Braves got the Reds to pay over 90% of Phillips’ contract.
The Phillies got no one to pay any part of a contract. Your view appears to be that it doesn’t matter how much they overpaid these players it because they have the money. I’d rather use that money to pay players that’ll help them win. The players they acquired were older, injury prone, and not any good. If they were trying to find players they could flip, they should’ve gotten better players than Clay Buchholz. They totaled 3.4 WAR between all of them.
Actually one of the other 29 teams did sign Turner, but Turner was one of the few players who got a contract around $68 million. Encarnacion got less. You think it didn’t matter that the Phillies spent $13 million on Buchholz and the Padres spent $1.75 million on Chacin, even though there was no reasonable expectation that Buchholz was better than Chacin.
But they could’ve actually spent that on players who’ll help them win in the future. None of these players will give them more in 2018 and 2019 than any free agent would have.
When I said “29 other teams didn’t sign Turner” I meant that to infer that 29 teams that aren’t the Dodgers didn’t sign him. I realize I could have made that clearer.
Yes, a better player is better to have on the field. That’s not particularly novel. But those better players demand multiyear deals, the Phils weren’t in a position it their rebuild to want to sign multiyear contracts when they have prospects at basically ever position they wanted to give sufficient playing time to in order to view their worth.
Should they have signed Chacin instead of Bucholz? Sure. I’m sure most people would have preferred that at the time too but, hindsight is 20/20. If anyone expected Chacin to accrue nearly 3.0 WAR last year he obviously would have received more than a one year deal, and if many people thought Turner was going to become all-star caliber then he necessarily would have received a much richer contract. It’s very easy to know with hindsight what would have been best.
“None of these players will give them more in 2018 and 2019 than any free agent would have.” is extreme hyperbole. Any player who was a free agent last year who retires this year and would have been retained the entire year would have netted less value for 2018 than the prospects sent back in any of the trades they made.
Propsect lists and prospects are a crapshoot. The Phillies got burned on former universally #1 ranked prospect Dom Brown and have said explicitly that they favor amassing many guys with potential than getting say one guy who people view much higher. That’s just a philosophy, its fine to disagree with it but my point is it’s intentional.
You dismiss Gomez out of hand and of course law of averages suggest, like nearly all prospects, he’ll never make it. But, they signed Neshek and paid him roughly 4.2 million and in exchange got Gomez who hit .310 between Sally and High A ball, JD Hammer who between Sally and High A had a 1.87 ERA with a .884 WHIP and another dude who seems like just a guy so far. With their stats, if Hammer and Gomez were suddenly free agents the total salary they’d command would be much higher than 4.2 million because they’ve now proven something at a certain level. The Phils essentially bought them for less than market value would dictate.
The Phillies had no expectation towards competing in 2017, 2018 and realistically would likely only begin to sniff .500 at earliest 2019. Why sign a player to a 2 or 3 year deal over that period who wouldn’t be around when they’re competing?
The Phillies spent $68 million on these players. Actually it was $71 million if you include Andres Blanco. They could’ve spent $15 million on better players like the Padres did and netted just as much in trades. I can’t grasp why it isn’t much worse to spend $71 million when you could’ve done the same thing for a quarter of that.
You say why sign a player to a 2 or 3 year deal? Because there’s a chance they’ll contend in 2018 or 2019. Instead of spending $30 million on Hellickson and Buchholz you likely could’ve found a starting pitcher that you could get for 2-3 years. Instead of spending $18 million on Gomez, Neshak, and Benoit you could’ve spent the same money and signed or traded for someone to a 3 year deal.
When the Braves got a veteran they had the Reds pay $12 of the $13 million. The Phillies had no other teams pay anything.
You seem to be making my argument for me. Why spend $71 million on a season where you aren’t contending? Why not spend it when you are?
If I take your Dom Brown reasoning a step further we can assume that all prospects are a crap shoot and it doesn’t matter if you trade for someone’s top 3 prospects or 3 players who aren’t in their top 30. Of course it does. While a #1 prospect doesn’t always succeed, a #17 prospect succeeds even less.
The players they got for Neshak didn’t cost them the $6.5 million Neshak got. All the players, including non-prospects like Clevinger, cost $71 million. Gomez is very unlikely to be added to the 40 man because they have no room. So they might lose him anyway.
The Phillies spent a huge sum of money and netted very little. Other non-contenders spent a fraction and netted as much.
Baloney!!!
At least one more year before they start looking at all those high dollar players. Maybe a couple of mid range veterans that are good in the dugout as well.
Good years coming.
They should wait another year before investing too many dollars. It doesn’t make sense to spend money simply for the sake of spending it when the players available to spend it on aren’t worth what it will do to future payroll. The only big free agent I’d look at might be Arrietta…if they can get him on their terms. Of course he and Boras are going to shoot for the moon…7 years and big dollars, which he’s not going to get. He’ll probably end up getting 5 years somewhere, in the $25M range. What if the Phillies offer him bigger money—say $30-$35M—but for 3 years. Would that entice him? It would give the Phillies a guy at the top with Nola for a few years, and not impact their payroll for the long-term.
It’s unlikely they’ll give 7 years to a pitcher. Arrieta is 32 next year and MacPhail is loathe to sign a pitcher that old that long. I think MacPhail would go 3 years, 4 at the most. I could see them offering 3 years/$95 million but if Arrieta is offerred 5 or 6 years elsewhere even offering $10 million more a year might not get it done.
A younger starter like Tyler Chatwood makes more sense for their philosophy. Chatwood will be 28 next year. It’s unfortunate he isn’t nearly the quality Arrieta is but his age fits more what they want. And Chatwood will probably get no more than 3-4 years.
Arrieta is garbage.
BTW, did the Dodgers sign Yu Darvish?
It’s unfathomable how much money Phillies have on the books 2018!
Will they spend almost half a billion like the Yanks did on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira , and AJ Burnett did in ’09!
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
Clayton Kershaw
Dec 2018
Good things come to those who wait.
Very excited for 2018- I don’t believe that much needs to be done this offseason. As I have stated before, I would be behind a trade of Freddy and a trade of Rupp and I wouldn’t mind signing Cobb as a rotation stabilizer and committing to moving Pivetta and Vinny to the pen. Overall, Nola, Eickhoff, Cobb, maybe a 1-year vet and one of Thompson/Lively/etc. would be awesome with Vinny, Pivetta, Morgan, Garcia, Arano, Neris and maybe a veteran signing.
I figure Cobb doesn’t carry too much risk: Figure a 3 year deal around $45-$50 million could get it done, and he could give us a few years of high 3, low-4 ERA ball behind Nola and Eickhoff and hopefully some combination of Sixto, Ranger, JoJo or Frankie (a few years down the line)
I think thats on the low end for Cobb. Maybe not duration but probably monetarily.
In regard to next offseason, I wouldn’t want to overpay for Machado or Harper, seeing as how their productions doesn’t seem sustainable over a long period of time. If anything, give Kershaw a 5 year $150 million deal
I mean, I know he could blow his arm out, but imagine that rotaion: Kershaw, Nola, Sixto Sanchez, Franklin Kilyone (assuming they both work out as we hope) and Jerad Eickhoff
I know its a pipe dream, but hey, Philly has the money.
If Kershaw turns in 30 Kershaw-level starts next year, he will be worth far, far more than that in free agency. Bear in mind he’ll still be ~2 years younger than Greinke was when he hit the open market.
*If Kershaw hits the open market…
Greinke hit a perfect storm in his FA. He was coming off his best season, and had two powerhouses—the Dodgers and Giants—competing for his services, and the DBacks fresh off signing a new TV deal. Plus he doesn’t have the back injury history that Kershaw does. Will Kershaw get a bigger contract? Hard to say. He’ll probably get a higher AAV…$36-$38M, but might not get 6-8 years. Might crack $200M but not a lock.
You don’t really see the Dodgers letting Kershaw go do you? They’ve recently proven they have an ability to retain their own free agents, so unless he really wants to leave, it’s really tough to see. Of course I’m a Dodgers fan who would cringe watching him in another uniform.
I don’t really see him leaving, not that I know what’s going on in his own mind. I was just addressing the idea that something like 5/150 would get Kershaw on the open market. Things may well look very different this time next year, but assuming a continuation of his trajectory, that is extremely light (from the Dodgers or the Phillies or any other team).
So you wouldn’t pay two guys who are superstars and available in their mid 20’s big dollars, but you’d open the vault for a 30 year old pitcher with a history of back problems? Who wouldn’t love Kershaw? Yeah, he’s one his way to the HOF, and one of the best pitchers of all-time, but even if they had the opportunity to sign him, they’d be paying huge dollars for the most risky time of his career.
” I wouldn’t want to overpay for Machado or Harper”
That’s worth at least three hundred down votes.
I’m not convinced Kershaw will ever have another healthy season again.
Hey might not, but then again 20-25 starts of Kershaw, if he’s able to pitch in October after taking some time off during the year, is still better than 30-35 starts from 99% of other pitchers in the game.
Matt Klentak seems to be thinking that the Phillies won’t be able to attract top free agents if they win 66 games again in 2018. That’s why he fired Mackanin now rather than a year from now. Bryce Harper isn’t going to a 66 win team with an unknown as manager. They’ll likely try to get at least one high priced long term player in hopes they’ll win at least close to half their games and they’re a place top talent wants to be.
If Stanton were to agree to waive his NTC, he’d be one of those pieces. The Phillies are probably the only team that’d be willing to take on his entire contract and they also have low priced players with big league experience to offer in return.
Harper isn’t a free agent until next offseason
he does appear to know this.
In fact, my entire thesis is that they’ll need to win more to get Harper next off-season.
They will have a manager by the time Harper is a free agent, and is 66 wins your prediction for next year???
Yankees-pretty much set or Phillies-what ifs…hmm not a very tough choice for Harper…
Hence why the Phillies need to make themselves a bit less of what ifs next year.
They need to and we need better leadership in Washington…
“Bryce Harper isn’t going to a 66 win team with an unknown as manager.”
Harper is signing with the team that offers the most money. It doesn’t matter if it’s the Phillies, the Yankees, the Twins, or the Long Island Ducks…he and Boras will go where the money is. Wins and loses, and who the manager is, will not matter at all.
“If Stanton were to agree to waive his NTC, he’d be one of those pieces.”
Why would you want him? Yes, he had a terrific season, and has tremendous talent. However, he’s owed big time money, and in 7 years he has played 130 or more games just three times. Why give up big prospects and take on that contract? Yes, it’d be fun to watch him at CBP…but not so much when his contract hinders them, and he’s sitting on the DL.
There’s such a distance to where the Yankees are and the Phillies it’s crazy. No one really knows whether winning or the money will really matter to Bryce the most,but yes money will play. Next year the Yankees should be playing for the AL east division again with their young players even more seasoned and hungry…even if they lose this year remember the 2015 Cubs everyone.
Um, do you recall how the Yankees were viewed just eight months ago? They were universally projected to finish 4th or 5th in the AL East and nobody would have expected them to sniff the playoffs but young talent progressed faster than expected and look at them now. It’s no guarantee but the Phillies have a very comparable deep core of young talent which showed up the last month or two. Add another year of playing time and a couple veteran additions and they could easily be strong enough to appeal to a guy like Harper or Machado in terms of long-term potential for success.
With so little money on the books, but not much available playing time outside of on the mound, and a couple of bench bats, I’d be inclined to mimic the same approach of recent years of relatively low-cost veterans to try to flip at the deadline, add a starter in the cost range of Cobb or Chatwood (only because of the age and demands in years of the top available starters), and find a strong arm for the 8th inning so 7-8-9 can be Morgan-FA-Neris.
“inclined to mimic…. relatively low-cost veterans to try to flip at the deadline”
So you like the idea of repeating failure? Is this John Middleton’s account?
So who were the free agents last offseason who received multi-year deals that you wish the Phillies would have signed to the deals that the players received. Maybe the best deal based on 2017 performance that would have fit well is Charlie Morton…can you imagine how you would have reacted if they re-signed him after last year?
And who would you want them to sign this year? You want to give pitchers on the wrong side of 30 contracts of 3+ or 4+ years at like 16+m per? And in terms of position players, who is available that you’d rather give a lengthy deal to and take playing time away from one of the prospects? If Harper/Machado were available this year I’d say go for it, otherwise, do you really want to go get Hosmer over Hoskins? Give JD Martinez a king’s ransom? If you’re done with Franco, would you rather get Moustakas right now or go for Machado next year?
Maybe it’s just me but I’d rather roll with Franco if the alternative is giving Moustakas and his 1.8 WAR six years-110mil. Or take Hosmer at six years-120mil over Hoskins. And I would rather go with Herrera, Williams Altherr than give 30 year old JD five-120 when he’s played in over 123 games in a year just once.
It’s always where the most money is. Players union hates when it’s not.
Harper – like Greinke – will sign with anyone who pays him what he’s looking for.
Can Harper get more endorsements playing in the North East than for the Twins? Sure, but if the Twins would pay him enough to cover what he and Boras think he could make and give him the highest amount by a lot than Harper would be a Twin.
Greinke figured in the tax rate difference playing in Arizona vs other offers he had.
Interviewer to Harper: “You could be the first $400 million player”
Harper: “Don’t sell me short.”
1) I thought Alfaro played with the Phils in ’16, and,
2) I thought the Phils were high on Valentin, not as a starter, but as a middle infield bench piece.
Valentin has had a lot of issues. Injuries, suspensions etc. I definitely believe he has the talent to be a very solid utility guy at the very least, but it might not be for the Phillies. I think his roster spot is in danger this offseason.
I do agree on his roster spot being in jeopardy. I was just wondering, since the writer said there were no major league ready middle infield options, besides Kingery, and he almost made the team this year out of spring training. It was reported elsewhere before that the reason he didn’t make it was because he did so well and the Phils wanted to make sure he got ABs.
The Phillies look a bit light in position players on the 40-man and there’s a real possibility that several players on it including Hernandez and Galvis could be gone. Valentin likely remains on the 40-man unless they get someone better.
Which is why I brought up his name, while wondering why the writer didn’t.
Alfaro played in 6 games in 2016 (17 PAs), so technically yes, but not enough to make an impression one way or the other.
So how many plate appearances do you have to have before you get your “first taste of major-league action?”
The roster itself looks on the upswing. Pitching, pitching and pitching. It is key to make Mark Appel transition to the bullpen. His arm could bode well as a set up guy or closer. His days of starting simply are no longer viable. The young line of pitchers will bring addtional fruit in 2019 as some of these young arms will mature into MLB starters.Galvis is a good glove and decent bat. But at $7.5 million projection over Crawford? I’m not sold. Hernandez vs Kingery? If indeed the team can garner a decent young starter for Galvis/CeHe, they must jump on it.
Appel, Therrien, Tirado, and Curtis appear to be the most likely players to be waived to clear 40-man spots for pitchers. I doubt Appel figures into the team’s plans for 2018.
Appel had never been good throughout his major league career. In fact, the season Appel was drafted, Luhnow had him promoted to AA and invited him to throw a BP session at Minute Maid despite an ERA over 9. Bo Porter wasn’t happy about this, as he didnt earn it, but that was the straw that broke the camel’s back leading to Porter being fired.
I think Appel rides the wire like Richie Shaffer did last offseason. He’s promising enough that a team wants to take a shot at least until something better comes along.
I think Valentin gets claimed and if claimed by the right team, could go on to have a little bit of a breakout. Kansas City, San Diego and Baltimore strike me as solid landing spots. There’s a reason for the 40 man roster limit, too limit teams from hoarding talent, and Valentin seems likely to be a casualty. I hope he makes a nice career for himself.
Curtis could go either way. If the Phillies really wanted to keep him, they’d DFA him now. Once teams go through the roster purge, they have plenty of 40 man spots to just claim guys willy nilly for the purpose of acquiring depth. Curtis might clear now, but give it 3 weeks and as an optionable lefty, no chance.
Jensen will clear because of TJ Surgery and Tirado because of 7 walks per 9 innings.
Other candidates, Tommy Joseph (although I think they’ll at least be able to get “Future Considerations” for him considering he has an option remaining.
Also Cam Perkins gets DFA’d too in my opinion.
They are slated to lose Kim and Blanco (not counting 60-day guys) through FA and seem likely to trade at least Rupp and one of Galvis/Cesar leaving them with seven openings.
I could possibly see Elinery Garcia and/or Mark Leiter
I think they keep Florimon and Drew Anderson. Everyone else should be relatively easy calls at least in terms of being a roster casualty.
I think we should trade Galvis this offseason, go into 2018
2B- Cesar SS Crawford 3B Franco BNINF- Florimon and Kingery at AAA.
If Franco can prove that his low BABIP was the reason forvthe low average in 2017, and Kingery knocks the door down, then trade Cesar.
If Franco stinks and Kingery breaks out, then dump Franco and move Scotty to third.
If both Kingery and Franci stink then deal with Franco until the offseason and then non-tender him and pursue a replacement. No need to prematurely trade a known commodity when the replacement, while promising, is unproven.
The only transition for Appel is to the Long Island Ducks.
Sign Derek Holland for the #1 ace pitcher. He comes cheap and is a work horse
If Jesse Chavez can get $5m as a starter after posting a 4.43 ERA as a reliever, Holland should be able to get $1m as a lefty starter to soak up innings from either Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Detroit or Kansas City
I have Sean O’Sullivan in the #1 slot after Nola goes on the 60 day DL (unless Nola’s dealt for stud prospects this winter).
Next year the Phillies have to get the #1 pick.
2019 Phillies:
Harper
Machado
Kershaw
N.L. East Title
#1 pick in June MLB Draft
I wonder how much it woud take to get MIchael Fulmer also willing to take on Jordan Zimmerman?
Still too much to make taking on nearly $75,000,000 in dead money worth it.
Agree. 25 per for three more years? Plausible if Zimm could still be assured of 180+ innings, but not sure he’s any sort of bounce-back candidate with that declining K rate (5.79/9 in 2017)
Fulmer is worthless.
Torn up shoulder.
sign darvish at any cost to lure otani
Had been thinking, does signing Darvish, Tanaka, and Otani for the rotation and Moustakas for third make the Phils a contender in 2018? Keeping in mind, CHernandez and MFranco could be traded for upgrades elsewhere,
Doing so would likely push the Phillies to a mid 80’s winner, but not good enough to win the division or a World Series. And then those contracts would likely deter them from next year’s mega class.
And I’m not sold on any of the players you mention. Darvish and Tanaka both have fragile elbows (Darvish already had TJ, and Tanaka’s been bordering on needing it for years), and Otani is completely unproven. Not every Japanese player comes over is a star. Many are great in Japan, and middling players here. I’d give him a shot if I got the chance—especially since the rules make him cheap—but I wouldn’t dish out $50M-$60M per year (and likely 5 years or close to $300M) just to take that chance.
They really wouldn’t. Let’s say Darvish, Tanaka, and Moustakas make $76.6 million a year combined. That’s probably a bit high but it makes sense to see what it’d be if we went high. That’d add $75 million to the payroll because they’d be replacing 3 players making about $1.6 million. That’d give the Phillies a payroll of $100 million in 2018 and $113 million in 2019, about $65 million below their 2014 payroll.
With $65 million available you should be able to spend in any market. You can’t buy everyone but if you sign Darvish, Tanaka, and Moustakas, you aren’t signing Machado and you’re only signing one starting pitcher at most.
Otani is not signing with the Phillies. Hell the Twins are more of a proven winner but he’s not going there either…
How could you possibly know this? Every single team is going to be in on him.
Location-Location-Location
*Strongest chance of Winning*
NO
Only 29 MLB teams are after Otani.
The “42” Phillies have shown zero interest and if they did it would only be due to what has always been non-existent media pressure. Everyone in the industry – which includes the corporate media – knows the Phillies have zero interest in Japanese players.
Not the Jays for sure…
Without destroying the competition in terms of money offered, this talk of Harper coming to Philadelphia is a little overblown. I don’t want to overpay for a player who has probably already secured a $400+ million contract over ten years. How much additional money will he require to play for a team that isn’t the Yankees or Dodgers, and possibly not even playing .500 ball yet.
After all the letdowns in DC, Harper on a team that is slower to contend than expected, might create a less than desirable environment. I don’t want to take that chance… Machado seems like a much better fit should Franco not significantly improve upon his 2017 numbers.
No, Harper + Machado + Kershaw is a better fit.
Harper hasn’t already “secured” a $400M/10 year deal, but he’s likely getting something in that neighborhood. I don’t get the whole…”Well, if it’s not the Dodgers or Yankees he’s going to take lots of money to sign” thing. Harper will sign with whomever gives him the most money; if that’s the Phillies so be it. If it’s the Yankees or Dodgers that’s fine too. If it’s the Milwaukee Brewers, that’s where Harper will go. As with most professional athletes he likely doesn’t have his sights set on a particular location…just the buckets of cash a team can offer.
In some ways I do agree that Machado is a better fit, but I have some reservations. First off he’s not going to come cheaper—at least not much to make a significant difference to a team that will sign him. And then there’s the fact that he’s already had knee or leg troubles, and plays a much more demanding position than Harper. If a team is going to spend big, big money on a long-term deal you’d probably rather spend that money in the outfield, rather than at 3B or SS…return on investment is likely to be higher. But the Phillies should definitely make a run at both and see what happens.
Trust the Process
Harper is a Mercenary. He’ll go where the cash is
They’re all “mercenaries”.
This is professional baseball, not the WBC.