As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the seventh year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2018. The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement). The Super Two cutoff is 2.123.
Angels (11)
- Martin Maldonado (5.156) – $2.8MM
- Garrett Richards (5.148) – $7.0MM
- Blake Wood (5.131) – $2.2MM
- Matt Shoemaker (3.166) – $4.4MM
- Tyler Skaggs (3.135) – $1.9MM
- Blake Parker (3.036) – $1.7MM
- Jose Alvarez (3.035) – $1.1MM
- C.J. Cron (3.097) – $2.8MM
- Cam Bedrosian (2.153) – $1.2MM
- Andrew Heaney (2.150) – $800K
- J.C. Ramirez (2.139) – $2.6MM
Astros (9)
- Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
- Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
- Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
- Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
- George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
- Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
- Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
- Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
- Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM
Athletics (8)
- Chris Hatcher (4.146) – $2.2MM
- Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
- Liam Hendriks (4.038) – $1.9MM
- Marcus Semien (3.118) – $3.2MM
- Josh Phegley (3.114) – $1.1MM
- Blake Treinen (3.065) – $2.3MM
- Jake Smolinski (3.016) – $700K
- Kendall Graveman (3.014) – $2.6MM
Blue Jays (8)
- Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
- Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
- Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
- Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
- Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
- Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
- Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
- Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
- Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM
Braves (5)
- Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
- Chase Whitley (3.099) – $1.0MM
- Sam Freeman (3.066) – $1.2MM
- Dan Winkler (3.000) – $800K
- Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM
Brewers (6)
- Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
- Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
- Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
- Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
- Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
- Corey Knebel (2.151) – $$4.1MM
Cardinals (4)
- Marcell Ozuna (4.124) – $10.9MM
- Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
- Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
- Randal Grichuk (3.033) – $2.8MM
Cubs (6)
- Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
- Justin Grimm (4.153) – $2.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
- Tommy La Stella (3.057) – $1.0MM
- Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
- Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM
Diamondbacks (13)
- Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
- Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
- A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
- Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
- Brad Boxberger (4.109) – $1.9MM
- Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
- Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
- Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
- David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
- Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
- Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
- Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
- Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM
Dodgers (8)
- Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
- Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
- Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
- Josh Fields (4.083) – $2.2MM
- Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
- Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
- Joc Pederson (3.028) – $2.0MM
- Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K
Giants (5)
- Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
- Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
- Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
- Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
- Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM
Indians (7)
- Lonnie Chisenhall (5.158) – $5.8MM
- Zach McAllister (5.077) – $2.4MM
- Cody Allen (5.076) – $10.8MM
- Dan Otero (4.124) – $1.4MM
- Danny Salazar (3.162) – $5.2MM
- Trevor Bauer (3.158) – $7.7MM
- Abraham Almonte (3.052) – $1.1MM
Mariners (7)
- David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
- Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
- Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
- Mike Zunino (3.165) – $3.2MM
- James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
- Mike Morin (3.030) – $700K
Marlins (5)
- Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
- Dan Straily (3.126) – $4.6MM
- Justin Bour (3.064) – $3.5MM
- Miguel Rojas (3.043) – $1.1MM
- J.T. Realmuto (3.038) – $4.2MM
Mets (9)
- Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
- A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (5.023) – $7.4MM
- Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
- Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
- Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
- Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
- Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
- Hansel Robles (2.129) – $1.0MM
Nationals (3)
- Anthony Rendon (4.130) – $11.5MM
- Tanner Roark (4.055) – $7.5MM
- Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM
Orioles (7)
- Zach Britton (5.158) – $12.2MM
- Brad Brach (5.063) – $5.2MM
- Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
- Jonathan Schoop (4.027) – $9.1MM
- Kevin Gausman (3.151) – $6.8MM
- Caleb Joseph (3.145) – $1.4MM
- Tim Beckham (3.134) – $3.1MM
Padres (7)
- Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
- Brad Hand (4.092) – $3.8MM
- Carter Capps (4.133) – $1.3MM
- Robbie Erlin (3.078) – $700K
- Kirby Yates (3.021) – $1.1MM
- Cory Spangenberg (3.016) – $2.0MM
- Matt Szczur (2.134) – $800K
Phillies (4)
- Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
- Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.006) – $1.4MM
- Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM
Pirates (4)
- Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
- George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
- Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
- Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM
Rangers (4)
- Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.165) – $1.1MM
- Keone Kela (3.000) – $1.2MM
- Ryan Rua (2.129) – $900K
Rays (9)
- Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
- Dan Jennings (4.171) – $2.5MM
- Corey Dickerson (4.101) – $6.4MM
- Brad Miller (4.094) – $4.4MM
- Jake Odorizzi (4.042) – $6.5MM
- Jesus Sucre (3.137) – $1.3MM
- Alex Colome (3.118) – $5.5MM
- Steven Souza (3.072) – $3.6MM
- Matt Duffy (3.059) – $900K
Red Sox (13)
- Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM
- Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM
- Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM
- Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM
- Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM
- Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM
- Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM
- Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM
- Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM
- Brandon Workman (3.115) – $900K
- Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM
- Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM
Reds (6)
- Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
- Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
- Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
- Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
- Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM
Rockies (5)
- DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
- Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
- Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
- Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
- Zach Rosscup (2.164) – $600K
Royals (3)
- Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
- Brandon Maurer (4.089) – $3.8MM
- Nate Karns (3.033) – $1.4MM
- Jorge Soler (2.143) – $1.1MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration. Otherwise, contract calls for $4MM each season from 2018-20.
Tigers (6)
- Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
- Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
- Nick Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
- Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
- James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
- Blaine Hardy (2.130) – $800K
Twins (7)
- Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
- Kyle Gibson (4.039) – $5.3MM
- Ryan Pressly (4.039) – $1.6MM
- Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
- Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
- Trevor May (3.051) – $600K
White Sox (7)
- Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
- Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
- Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
- Danny Farquhar (3.135) – $1.5MM
- Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
- Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
- Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM
Yankees (8)
- Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
- Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
- Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
- Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
- Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
- Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
- Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
- Chasen Shreve (2.167) – $900K
Betances worth 4.4M? No way. He thinks he’s worth at least 8M.
Not any more.
In today’s market, he’s worth at least $8M, but he won’t get it cuz of his ridiculous $3M salary last year
Something I’ve wondered in the past is: can’t you guys figure out what the super two cutoff will be? Like can’t you just figure out how many days of service time each player has based on how many he started the year with and how many days he accrued this year (based on time on big league rosters, minors stints and their lengths, 60-day DL time, etc.)?
Another idea I thought of a while back is a service time tracker, where every day every player’s (or every pre-arbitration and arbitration player’s) service time were updated. You could actually know every day of the season who was on pace for super-2.
Can’t you figure out the Super two cut-off?
The super 2 cutoff is the top 22 percent of those players who have between 2 years and 3 years of service time in the major leagues. It changes from year to year. 2.120 is on the low end of the spectrum.
You have to know the exact service time figures for each player to make the calculation. For a player who spent the entire season in MLB, that’s easy. Add one year to last year’s service time. But for a guy who was up and down through the season, not so easy.
I didn’t mean this to be disparaging or anything, it was an honest question. I thought a service time tracker would add a lot to the site and since all the site’s writers follow all the players and transactions quite closely, it seemed like a sensible idea…guess not.
I think it’s simply very difficult to be completely accurate with this. The timing of transactions affect service time. It’s not when a team announces a player being recalled, it’s when MLB is informed by the club.
For example, MLB headquarters is informed at 2pm on Monday a player is being recalled and he is sent back down on Tuesday. If headquarters is notified at 1pm, that’s probably one day of service time. But if they are notified at 3pm, is that one day or two, since it’s more than 24 hours?
They don’t have the time. These articles get thrown up here ASAP and updated on the fly, so I don’t see anything that in-depth and constantly updated ever being done.
Service times are available on Roster Resource, BaseballReference, and several other sites.
Welcome back Tim! Bring back your little newsletter – it was fun!
0 chance it’ll ever happen, but nontendering Freddy Galvis at 7.4M sounds pretty appealing..
Yea that made me cringe a bit
Abreu getting a $7mil raise!?
another .300/30/100 season, pretty much. If he repeats he’ll end up making like 22-23M in 2019
Puts the Sox in a real pickle.
Really shouldn’t be handing a 1B/DH on the wrong side of 30 $100mil extensions. And aren’t going to get a big haul for a 1B/DH who will cost the acquiring team $40mil over the next 2 years..
If are number are correct for next 2 years, then the total of the contact comes to 6 years, $78mm. That’s an AAV of $13mm for a 1b that hits .300, 30 HRs, and 100rbis consistently. Worth EVERY SINGLE PENNY
Yeah., But what good did that $78mil. do the team if he’s gone after ’19??
??? So every contract signed is a failure of it doesn’t produce a WS? Don’t really get that
Wow. It’s not an either/or.
But, if trading Abreu for 2 or 3 players that help them get a WS is a possibility, wouldn’t that be preferable to Abreu being “worth his contract” on the 4th worst team in baseball??
Need more than 1 guy to outplay his deal.
It’s pretty simple, actually. But I’ll break it down for you. Whoever decides to give Arrieta 6 years, $150mm+ understands that they are signing a player that is im his prime, yet are going to understand that the value and production will come in his age 32,33, and 34 seasons. They will also grossly overpay for his age 35,36, and 37 seasons. The point being, hichever team decides to give him that money will have a window of contention for 2-3 years when his prime pitching years are still there. Now, when the White Sox signed Abreu they had the same thing in mind. Except that they were his age 27-32 years, which are the ages that top production comes from a hitter. They Sox believed they had a window of contention and a cornerstone of this franchise for 6 years. They were right about the cornerstone, but not their level of contention. Add that to the 6 year, $78 mm he will receive(of arbitration numbers are correct) and Abreu is a steal. Whether or not he will get 2-3 “prospects” in a trade does not matter, because his value comes as the leader of this team. He has taken fellow Cuban Yoan Moncada under his wing in his transition to MLB, and was INSTRUMENTAL in the signing of the #1 international prospect and fellow Cuban Luis Robert for far less money than the Cardinals offered. Now, tell me how much he isn’t worth.
whoosh
Rondon at $6.2 million after being left off of the division series roster seems pretty hefty unless he is otherwise unreportedly injured.
Rondon’s projection is 1.2 million. The Tigers are just about out of patience with him. I think he’s a strong non tender candidate if they don’t come to terms before December 1.
Hector
Highly doubt they nontender him. 6M for a good-not-great relievers with great upside get more than 6M on the FA market anyways. Your friendly reminder that Mike Dunn makes 6M+ per season
“”Phillies (5)
Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
Luis Garcia (3.007) – $1.4MM
Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MMPhillies (5)””
Galvis – Trade/nontender
Cesar- Trade for PROSPECTS ….A-ball level with ceiling
Cameron Rupp- nontender
——-
No way Galvis is non tendered.
No way..Galvis and Cesar can each be traded for decent prospects, or packaged with a middling pitcher to get a better one .
A lot of these guys are non tender candidates
8M raise to Mookie Betts. Yikes. Good thing they reset their Lux Tax this year.
Rupp is cheap and puts up 1+ WAR consistently. Can he play a serviceable backup C role?
Rupp is probably better in the backup role , although the pitch-framing metrics guys hate him. Kinda hard to frame pitches when they are all over the place though. If he gets better starters to work with ,might be better …
Frankly, he and one of Alfaro/ Knapp probably should be moved. But I think Knapp has an option, and it might be Rupp/ Alfaro to start the season behind the plate.
With Khrush projected to make well in excess of 11 mil, the Cards should target him for the cleanup spot while unloading many of the glut in the OF including Piscotty (even if STL has to pick up some of the tab) so he can be closer to Pleasanton (Alameda Co.) Ca with what he’s going through and provide him as much piece of mind as he can get right now and I have to doubt he will return to form previous to this season!
STL might have to take on a couple of other contracts to get this done like Joyce & Casilla (both have 1 year remaining) to incentivize OAK into dealing along with including another middling pitching prospect.
Of course this isn’t the only offensive minded acquisition that Cardinals should pursue (a contact bat also) but it would help clear an organizational logjam, give Oakland some younger Outfield (Grichuk, maybe JA Garcia) talent, and help Piscotty get closer to home so he can be closer to his ailing mother.
Although I’m sure many will disagree…
Good call..
At least the Angels can afford to sign these players.
On another not Robbie Ray at only $4.2 million? That’s cheap for a very good pitcher.
Why would Anthony Rendon get more than Kris Bryant? Addison Russell should get a lot more too. Bryant should get at least 12-14 and Russell 8-10 mil
I recommend you read up on how the process works.
I’m guessing it’s based on ML experience and years served. Harper got like 21.5 mil he’s been in the league for 5 years. That would make the most sense. What I don’t get is rendon is half the player Bryant is regardless of ML service. He shouldn’t get more than 4mil.
Rendon was already making over 5 million per year. Do you think his salary is going to go down?
Bryant made a tick over 1 million. His slary would be juping 8 times, while Rendon would be, roughly, a two times increase.
Also, your claim Rendon is half the player Bryant is is nuts.and I prefer Bryant.
It doesn’t really have much to do with those things you mentioned.
Arbitration salaries are based on production and, in a big part, on previous salaries.
IN a nutshell, Super 2 buys the team an extra year of arbitration before FA. Bryant may go 1M/8M/12M/16M before hitting FA.
If he had hit the 3 year mark, he might go 1M/8M/16M and then hit FA and get one of those 25M per year deals.
It gives the team another year of “control”. The cost is they have to keep the player down long enough to miss the cutoff of three years.. If you want to avoid a player getting SUper 2 for a while, you have to hold them even longer.
FanGraphs has a short, but good article here
fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/