The Orioles are known to be on the hunt for multiple starting pitchers this offseason — possibly as many as three — and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the team has “definite” interest in righty Andrew Cashner and southpaw Jason Vargas. GM Dan Duquette has suggested in recent weeks that he’d prefer to add at least one lefty to his rotation, and Vargas would accomplish that goal.
Neither Cashner nor Vargas are among the top tier of free-agent starters, though it’s long seemed unlikely that the O’s would play at the top of the market. Given the team’s sizable needs in the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, the Orioles will most likely have to add multiple arms from the second and third tiers of free-agent starters to fill out the starting five. Starting pitching, of course, is hardly Baltimore’s only need. The O’s could also very well take a look at some depth options in both the infield and the outfield, as they currently project to rely heavily upon a host of young and/or unproven assets (e.g. Tim Beckham at shortstop, Trey Mancini and Austin Hays in the outfield corners).
Baltimore currently has nearly $62MM committed to just four players in 2018: first baseman Chris Davis, center fielder Adam Jones, DH Mark Trumbo and setup man Darren O’Day. The payroll is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to balloon by another $55.1MM following a sizable slate of arbitration raises to another seven players, highlighted by Manny Machado and Zach Britton. In all, the O’s look to be on the hook for just under $127MM in 2018 before so much as spending a single penny this winter.
Assuming the payroll won’t expand too far beyond the $164MM mark at which the Orioles entered the 2017 season, that’d leave Baltimore with roughly $35-40MM to spend on new salary for the 2018 campaign. That’s not an insignificant amount of funds, to be sure, but that money will go quickly if the O’s truly intend to add three new starters and deepen their pool of position players.
Neither Cashner nor Vargas figures to break the bank, so to speak. We pegged Cashner for a two-year, $20MM contract on last week’s top 50 free-agent list and projected a one-year, $10MM pact for Vargas on the heels of a poor finish to the 2017 season. Generally speaking, it’d be a surprise to see either command more than a $12MM annual commitment in free agency, and the O’s could certainly backload any multi-year deals issued to free agents in an effort to defer some of the dollars to 2019, when some combination of Machado, Britton and Jones will all likely be off the books.
Of course, the fact that so many key Orioles contributors are just one year from the open market will play into the offseason calculus as well. The Orioles have to be cognizant of the fact that if the season goes south early on in the 2018 campaign, they’ll be faced with the unpleasant notion of having to listen to offers on longtime stars like Machado, Britton and Jones.
With that possibility looming, the team may not wish to commit to lengthy multi-year deals in free agency this winter. Speaking from a purely speculative standpoint, shorter-term deals that would allow the club to pivot in the event of a poor start to the year could be more desirable than locking in a mid-rotation arm like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb on a three- or four-year pact that could prove more difficult to move.
Cashner, 31, gave the Rangers 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball but did so with one of baseball’s worst strikeout rates (4.6 K/9) and a lackluster walk rate (3.5 BB/9). Fielding-independent ERA alternatives like FIP (4.61), xFIP (5.30) and SIERA (5.52) were all considerably more bearish on his 2017 output.
The 35-year-old Vargas turned in an All-Star first half in 2017, though the 2.22 ERA he carried through the end of June was buoyed by an unsustainable 86 percent strand rate. Vargas’ control slipped in the season’s final three months (3.9 BB/9), and his BABIP and strand rate regressed (substantially so in the case of the latter), leading to a bloated 6.66 ERA in the final three months of the 2017 campaign.
Bargain Bin….
Jk.
More like B-Type starters
I don’t understand the Orioles, are they strapped for cash? I don’t follow them at all so I don’t really know what their situation is but I feel as though they may be able to solve some of their problems by spending the extra money for a reliable starter. Not that Cashner or Vargas aren’t reliable but with Lynn and Cobb available, I’d take their smaller gambles over Cashner and Vargas’ larger ones.
You could also follow the O’s and have as good an idea as you do. Nobody has an idea. Their M.O. is to wait until the end off the offseason and sign the scraps of FA’s that others don’t want (like Ubaldo).
I think what’s behind it is that Angelos is gun-shy and thinks every FA is overpriced, and by the end of things, Duquette has worn him down enough just to let him spend money on the “bargains” who got left out of the dance.
Don’t forget, the Orioles basically outbid themselves, significantly, on Chis Davis when they were trying to play “hardball”.
Except when it comes to bats. Angelos will spend a ton on a big bat even if its a horrible contract like Davis. But when it comes to pitching he won’t allow Duke to sign any decent pitching. Angelos even makes Duke trade away all of the O’s IFA pool. Not one international free agent signed for several years now. Most teams build their farm with IFA players.
I hate it for Orioles fans, man. You better hope more IFA are successful, to change this stubborn philosophy.
What makes it especially frustrating, this isn’t your traditional “cheap” team. They aren’t cheap.
It doesnt help that the AL East is not particularly pitcher friendly including their home park. Its just not a particularly situation there right now and the O’s are not willing to overpay, so they end up with a pretty lackluster rotation.
THen they need to start signing ground ball pitchers
Who throws a lot of sinkers?
Small park? Ok, cool. Let’s force the opposition to hit the ball on the ground
Gotcha, I figured a similar situation was happening but didn’t know if I was just too uneducated on the matter. I feel bad for O’s fans, because like xabial said its not necessarily cheap its more just a lack of putting money in the right places. If they got a rotation stabilizer like Lynn or Cobb they’d probably improve quite a bit. In fact they could probably add both one of Lynn/Cobb + Cashner/Vargas, which I’d think would help out a decent amount. Maybe I’m off but its worth thought.
Yep, that place is a launching pad, but these are good mid level pitchers. My question is why will they go to the O’s if they can pitch in a pitchers friendly park and make the same money.
I am an Orioles fan and everything you all are discussing frustrates us all a lot. I think there are a couple of reasons that Angelos and the Orioles do things the way they do. First of all, Angelos will only shell out money for “Orioles” kind of guys. For example, Davis, trumbo, Hardy, O’day and Wieters (who they wasted way too much time on) all seemed like “Orioles” guys, they fit that image. Other guys who don’t fit that image don’t stay. See Nelson Cruz, Jason Hammel, Wei Yin Chen.
I think at the end of the day the Angelos doesn’t care about whether or not the Orioles are good. In a city like Baltimore, the Orioles will always be profitable. Angelos wants to make as much money as he can. Guys like trumbo and Davis who hit home runs are supposed to bring in the money. Pitchers frequently get hurt, don’t pan out, and just struggle in a hitters park like Camden Yards. And after our horrible swing and miss on ubaldo, it will only be more difficult for duquette to open the bank for another pitcher.
That leads into the IFA issue. The Orioles simply don’t spend money to scout players in other countries. We have signed a couple of people out of the KBO but that’s about it. But with no scouting, it doesn’t make sense to waste more money picking up IFAs you know nothing about. So to the Orioles it seems better to just trade all that away.
I don’t agree with any of these strategies. But as long as angelos is the owner, the Orioles will always be playing to be a profitable team, not a good team.
Lynn or Cobb would mean a loss of a pick. The O’s are looking more and more like a team that will need to rebuild, so keeping their picks would seem wise. Vargas wouldn’t cost them a pick, nor would Cashner or Chatwood.
If that’s the case I don’t understand why Buc stays there, he is just too loyal I quess!
Its hard to make sense of what drives the O’s decisions when they deal with free agents.
Peter Angelos is the 88 year old managing partner who became rich from law suites against asbestos companies and other manufacturing companies.
Its my understanding that the O’s are also owned by several celebrities.
When the group first bought the team, they paid (overpaid) free agents only for them to immediately go on strike. The O’s were then “barred” from the negotiations with the union.
The O’s were heavy investors of free agents in the 1990s then sometime in the mid 2000s, they changed their operating style to one that has no obvious vision to what type of team to build toward.
As an O’s fan, I agree completely with your assessment.
Buck has a contract that he won’t be let out of. He hasn’t had the option to leave since he signed on the dotted line.
The problem is when they wait for bargains and then overpay for the bargains. Davis and Ubaldo are prime examples.
I love how Angelos outbid himself and way overpaid Davis
I and multiple real oriole fans have stated this dozens of times here…
Angelos got bit HARD on the Albert bell deal nearly 20y ago and just nearly always won’t spend the $$ any longer.. Sure he made a somewhat competitive offer for Tex a dozen years ago and coughed up the money for a friend of his in Davis, but those *2* are and have been exceptions.
For his wallet style? He’s got the perfect GM in Dan Duquette that is and has been known forever at digging out bargains and castoffs since the 90’s… From “the bellview basher” Brian Daubach, to troy O’leary decades ago..
Working with a low-non budget allowed? Vargas has the most upside. He’s on more than not and has superb control. I think he could be a decent 4 SP in the AL East. Cashner is a reliever waiting to happen
He didn’t get bit very hard at all financially on the Bell deal. He played well for a couple of years and then insurance picked up a huge portion of the money when he could no longer play.
Orioles put their dollars into the wrong players. And throwing dollars at players like Cashner and/or Vargas isn’t going to put them over the top, either.
Cashner’s K/9 dropped significantly last season, though his BB/9 dropped as well. Vargas is a FB pitcher and his HR/9 increased significantly last season. Neither player are perfect fits and they would still have trouble getting past the Yankees and Red Sox. But neither player would cost them picks and they could probably be moved more easily if Baltimore were to change course and rebuild, as both players are unlikely to land long-term deals.
If only Angelos would wise up and green light a rebuild
Angelos is 87. All we can hope for is that at some point the team is taken over by an owner that is in full possession of his faculties.
Angelos IS the problem!
They can score plenty of runs, only one of the 9 in the starting lineup failed to hit 20 HRs. A couple of league average SPs could do a lot. And even though the AL East is still tough, it’s not the AL East of the early 2000’s. They could compete next year with adding a couple SPs. And I agree the money may not have been spent in the right places, but anyone who says Angelos isn’t willing to spend money when we are looking at another season of $160+mm payroll isn’t paying attention. If they could move Davis to let Mancini man first, that would be great, but it’s not going to happen. Yankees won’t be big spenders this offseason, Red Sox have several holes to fill, Blue Jays could be a train wreck again and Rays are the Rays. Wouldn’t take much to be competitive with a couple competent SPs.
They would be the 3rd team at best in the AL East
Gee, wonder who you think would be ranked 1st in that group…
Lol
Lets be honest. The Yankees don’t have the best starting rotation
They don’t have the best product on the field, but they could be top 3
Rays are small market but they have a lot of talent and a surplus of quality pitching
Os are not small market and have a lot of talent. They just don’t know how to pick pitchers, draft, or invest in the international market
Bosox just keep spending money, and they have a couples holes but the most complete team in the al east
The jays? Got some good pitching not a lot of it but they got it… not much more can be said.
How much Canadian Whiskey did you drink tonight ??? The Blue Jays are the worst team in the A.L East by a MILE…They are bottom feeders and have a long way to go before they contend for anything.
Lowtalker: you’ve pretty much hit it in the head. A couple things go right for any of these 5 teams and they win the division. A couple moves, a couple lucky breaks, a couple DL stints. On just a straight measure of current talent, these 5 are on a surprisingly even playing field.
Jays? Nooo
Scot you must have a reading problem
I said they have a few good pitchers and the rest sucks
Rvm the jays are done
The Os need pitching, they need a quality farm
The bosox have the most complete team bc they kept spending they still have some holes
Yankees can spend but have been retracting and have a ton of holes
The rays have lots of pitching and some good bats.. question is can they get together
So, before you two say anything else please rethink your thoughts throw
I don’t like repeating myself a 2nd time
Yanks pitching was the second in baseball last year behind the Indians and then they added at the deadline. They pitched better in the playoffs than the other teams overall.
The O’s are in the same position this winter that the Royals were in last year, do they add or rebuild the team. Buc can work some magic next year if everything breaks right, but the smart move for them would be to break this team down and build the way other teams have done. If not they will be in trouble for years to come.
Second in the AL. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks gave up fewer earned runs.
The Yankees pitching was great, though. Their rotation was better than many gave them credit for and they’ll have the dough to tighten up even further.
Lowtalk: So as I said, all are in pretty much the same spot. All have holes and a couple things go right or wrong for any of them and any team can win. I stand by my statement. These thoughts have been thought THROUGH.
Actually the O’s don’t score as many runs as you would think. They overall BA and OB% is miserable since there are too many power guys who don’t hit for avg. with guaranteed contracts they are screwed for many years ahead. (IE Davis). Angelos needs to sell but unfortunately the team will pass down to his son and the misery will continue. Team needs to be completely rebuilt especially after they don’t sign Machado. Fans will disappear again too.
The only Oriole signed beyond 2019 is Davis so how are they screwed for years. 2019 only adds O’day and Trumbo to that list. To say they are financially strapped for years is just not accurate. $23 million a year just isn’t what it used to be and becomes less every year. One $23 million contract does not eliminate abilities to sign people with a $160 million+ payroll.
I agree. I do not think the O’s are a smartly run organization. They will do the wrong thing and they will be in trouble for years to come.
Why try to sign a GOOD free agent pitcher when you can bid against yourself for Cashner or Vargas? The Orioles are a joke!
God those are horrible options. I might be ok with Vargas but only cause he’s more of a ground ball pitcher. He’d have to slot as #5 starter though. Chatwood would be a better choice in my opinion if they aren’t willing to compete for the services of Cobb or Lynn. I personally feel you can catch lightning in a bottle with Cobb, given that this will be his second year away from TJ surgery. If you are going to bargain shop, at least look for potential. There’s no potential with Vargas or Cashner. Look at what the Astros and Reds have done with guys like Morton, Peacock and Straily. Why can’t the O’s target some of those types?
Jason Vargas has a 40% ground ball rate. Andrew cashners is a lot higher without even checking. Wade Miley’s ground ball rate is around 50%. Vargas isn’t a grounball pitcher and it takes one google search to verify. What is a Morton steadily or peacock type? Guys who haven’t done anything in their career yet? Morton changed the way he pitched completely. He was never a strikeout pitcher. Peacock had been a swing man who broke out this year.
The Orioles certainly have pitching problems. However, they also have periods when the offense heads south. I think this streakiness is caused by too many HR hitters who have low OBPs. Too many one run HRs.
Yeah, this it more or less the perfect description, right down to the lack of OBP guys in the lineup and ALL the solo shots. There have been quite a few games when the offense does not show up. Yeah, 8 guys with 20 or more homers, but, it is very deceiving. Many of the home runs seem to come in the later inning, when the mop up guy is out there. (observation based, not looking into any metrics) The O’s hit homers, but unfortunately, not when it is always needed. An opposing team with an above average pitcher going usually makes the Oriole batters look lost.
I can’t wait to see – Jimenez and/or Miley named comeback players of the year for some other team. I watch almost every Os game on tv and hear time-and-time again how some of the pitchers on the opponent teams have worked with a pitching guru or totally rebuilt their delivery or changed arm angles, etc. to somehow start winning again. Yet, the Os make no changes to their pitchers who have obvious delivery flaws. They just always looked stunned each game as the starters don’t make it past the 2nd inning.
HA! I cannot see that happening, (OK, I don’t want to see it happen)
the orioles are a mess, they need more than just quality pitching next year to compete, you can’t thrive as an offense if all you do is hit home runs
They can have Skaggs for Trumbo
That would be an easy yes for Baltimore. Angels wouldn’t do that
I honestly kind of like these two for the Orioles. Obviously they need better pitchers if they want to compete for the world series but this could be enough to build a playoff contender. Combined Jimenez and Tillman were -4 WAR alone, this is not accounting for the bullpen mess those two created (overuse and shuttling). Brach and Givens combined for about 2.5 ERA first half and 3.6 2nd half. Cashner and Vargas were about 8 WAR combined, leave some room for regression and this could be 10 game swing, with the potential for a more effective relief corps.
These are orioles kind of moves