Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.
Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.
More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…
- Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
- Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.
I like to see the Rox come outta nowhere and get a Hosmer to play 1B
Signing Hosmer would pretty much eliminate the possibility of resigning Blackmon and Arenado in the next couple years
LoMo, Duda or even Lind on a 1 year deal to pair with Valakia would make more sense.
What about Todd Frazier at 1st base? I feel like he’s the kind of hitter that would do well in Colorado, but not so much elsewhere.
There are a lot of 1b out there and 1-2 of them are going to be left standing when the music stops playing. I see LoMo and Reynolds off hand as the 2 most likely right now to over price themselves and end up turning down an offer or 2 higher than they could have gotten, then end up sighing later on this winter for less, or get stuck with a 1y deal and end up with all the high powered guys next year.
Both those guys need to understand they aren’t that much better than napoli, Duda, Moreland.. Even Hosmer is only a scratch better than the pile.
He would cost $15 million annually
They could have Tommy Joseph for a 28 year old A ball player.
And who might that be? Joseph isn’t worth much but more than a has been A player
“A Hosmer”? How many “Hosmer’s” is there?
“Is there”?
Are there??
A lot actually, over the last three years Mitch Moreland has better numbers, look up the stats
Touché
Not a huge Hosmer fan but I kinda like that idea. Not a big power guy but Colorado would maximize it. I imagine McMahon wouldn’t.
Hosmer is the most overrated player in MLB, if the Rockies sign him might as well say goodbye to a winning record
Maybe I would’ve given him that title at some point last season. But everyone and their mother has crapped on Hosmer this off-season making him fairly rated or even underrated at this point.
Will anyone really be willing to pay Blackman $$ besides Colorado? His splits show a different player outside of Coors, still solid, but definitely not a big contract player
Remember Matt holiday, I mean away from that ballpark they are either an average or above average hitter unless they play in a hitter friendly division.
Maybe Holliday comes back to finish his career at Coors.
Selling beer in the stands?
I have significant doubts it would ever happen due to their miserly owners, but Blackmon would fit great at Citifield
Yep, significant doubts the team would be sold by then.
Cubs would be all over Blackman . Leadoff center fielder. Of course Harper is top choice. If lose out on him they would love Blackman
Blackmon should ask for a contract bigger than Heyward’s. I mean he can play great defense AND hit. He’s got a solid case.
Blackmon is not a great defender. (-5 drs -0.6 uzr )
Blackmon isn’t a great defender at all but the bat more than makes up for it. I suppose the biggest question with him is how much of his “ability” is Coors Field and how much isn’t? Is he Larry Walker or is he Brad Hawpe or Vinny Castilla or Dante Bichette.
I know there are some questions about his splits, but the guy hit well on the road in 2016 and slashed .391/.466/.773 at home last season. Even park-adjusting, that’s insane offensive production, so I’m sure a few teams will buy him as a truly elite hitter. I actually think his age will be his biggest problem. With his defense decling into his mid-30’s (he’ll be entering his age 32/33 season in 2019), teams may be wary that he’ll be a corner outfielder pretty early on
Blackmon is a good defender, anyone who plays center field in Coors field is rated bad, that’s just because it’s so big
Idk, Statcast didn’t exactly like Blackmon last season either, and I doubt that’s a park thing. I was sympathetic to that idea wrt UZR and DRS, but Statcast measures distance travelled and hangtime of batted ball and had him at one out below average for all outfielders, not just center fielders.
he hit well on the road in 2016, but for his career he’s a.350 hitter @ Coors, just over .260 away. 2016 looks more like an anomaly to me
where’s the idea that the Cubs should be going after outfielders coming from they need to keep their pitching staff in good condition they have enough outfielders obviously those plans would be upgrades but not big enough to Warrant the price
yes
Blackmon looks like the second coming of Ted Williams@ Coors nearly hitting .400, looks average on the road at .270 for ’17. Don’t tell that to Rockies fans tho, they’ll tell you it’s an anomaly. Sure, an “anomaly” that for his career he’s hit .340+ at Coors but only .260 away.
They want to dump salary with Yelich and Realmuto, they don’t want to dump salary with Yelich and Realmuto. This is getting as old as Stanton and Machado.
Trading Yelich and Realmuto was never going to be about dumping salary. After moving Stanton, Gordon, and Ozuna, the Marlins should already be at or below their target payroll. Yelich and Realmuto would only be used to get top prospects.
Hil said publicly that trading Yelich was contingent on Prado, Tazawa and/or Zeigler being part of the deal. Now a reporter is saying that is not the case. The entire goal of the organization by their own words is lowering payroll.
Most teams are not going to be willing to pay the prospect cost for Yelich alone, but would be willing pay for Prado/Zeigler/and or Tazawa’s salary to lower the prospect cost.
That may have been before the Stanton trade? They’ve obviously reduced their payroll significantly now and don’t really have any incentive to cut more other than to help their farm system at this point.
It’s hard to tell if Miami is just being coy or if they really haven’t sat down to plan out the rebuild. Keeping both players will only delay the total rebuild that is the only solution. As their roster is currently constructed, they won’t be competitive for several years. What would be the point of keeping Realmuto and Yelich unless they’re confident they can really hijack someone at the deadline?
“they won’t be competitive for several years”
The Marlins farm was empty before they unloaded Stanton and Ozuna and now it’s still empty after those “trades”.
If by “‘several years” you meant “eight to ten” then I agree with you.
I’m sure they are not keeping Yelich and Realmuto for long, but at least for now they have the luxury of waiting for the best offer. There are still a few months left in the offseason, btw.
No so, the White Sox waited a long time and are still in their rebuild, the Marlins are not in a rush now that the budget is manageable. They will get a haul for Yellich, Realmuto, and Bour. whether it’s this winter or later on. I would think Realmuto is the first to go, he is the best catcher available.
the pairing of Yelich or JT with either Zeigler or Prado is what would be considered a salary dump..
I think Colorado’s strategy is to maximize the effectiveness of their young staff by minimizing their amount of innings. They may want to depend on their bullpen to a greater extent.
I would think they could attach Ziegler to Realmuto. Ziegler only has 1 year left on his deal, and has been effective in the past.
Prado is a feasible add on if Marlins pick up 1/2 his remaining two year’s salary ($14M) Ziegler if Marlins pay $3M of his $9M.
It’s a better plan to hold Ziegler til the trade deadline and flip to a contender then. Realmuto should bring back a farm boosting haul, would be foolish to mess with that when they’re already at an ok payroll level.
I would like to see the Braves get Yelich For right field and Prado for 3rd base and send Markakis and some prospects. This could have them competitive next year
Nobody wants Markakis
Agreed that’s why I think Braves want to trade him
Then why would any other club want him ? Especially one that’s seeking to get younger and cheaper. Wishful thinking from Braves fans.
why would they take markakis after dumping Prado? yYou’re going to have to do better than some unnamed prospects
I’ve seen some speculation from ATL fans of Allard, Ian Anderson, Pache for Yelich/Prado (ATL taking on remainder of Prado’s deal).
– Pache most likely will be in the next top 100 but will be blocked by Acuna, Inciarte, Yelich; while giving up Allard/Anderson would hurt, getting Yelich would allow ATL to spend on either elite SP or an elite 3B (Machado?)
I think saying Pache will “most likely” be in the next top 100 is a little bit of a stretch. He might sneak in, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he doesn’t.
Right. I think that when a GM is on the phone with AA, and Alex even mentions the name Markakis, the line goes dead immediately.
Adding Markakis would only drive up the prospect price going back to Miami. It would be very doubtful that the Marlins would take him back.
Remember there is absolutely NO reason that you couldn’t deal Markakis to another team. Perhaps trading him to Baltimore for Darren O’Day? Surely there’d be some scenario that the Braves could deal him away (after all AA just got rid of Kemp).
I think that the biggest question may be how much more in payroll is Liberty Media willing to take on for 2018? Perhaps more than we expect in an effort to make fans somewhat forget the major setbacks caused by Coppy.
Marlins aren’t looking to dilute package by including Prado. Teams will have to pay premium processing to land CY or JT
prospects….not processing. stupid autocorrect
The Marlins have said they are looking to include a combination of Prado, Zeigler, and/or Tazawa in any trade for Yelich.
Source of your info, please, It didn’t come from the Marlins.
Interview with Hill on MLB Network Radio with Jim Duquette.
I didn’t see the interview so I can’t say either way, but you would think that if Mike Hill himself was indeed on MLBN and truly said this, that it would have been quoted/tweeted by any/all of the sources reporting on Marlins. What insider like Heyman/Olney or any of the local guys like Frisaro or Clarkson would sacrifice their integrity by tweeting that a “team source” says they’re not trying to include others when the team president had just been on a national network and said otherwise himself.
You believe an executive negotiating in public. That’s your first mistake.
I don’t see it happening, but Abreu makes a lot of sense if they want to win this year and still have money to extend Nolan.
I agree. If you add in Avi, the Sox could get another nice package of prospects. Rockies get their 1b and OF, the Sox strengthen their farm depth even further.
Doubt the sox would package both avi and abreu together, if they’re even traded at all
Send back Rodgers+ or Pint/McMahon and I’d happily package them.
except that even those two combined wouldn’t bring that back package
they don’t want Avi they have better outfielders
Excellent article by Fangraphs regarding the Rockies moves. I read a similar article from Jamey Newberg, & liked his insights on all the moving pieces that it takes to win in baseball. The following is a excerpt from the Newberg Report:
“A whole lot of different things have to come together to win.
If it were only drafting at the top after years of sustained terribleness, the Nationals would at least have a playoff series win by now, let alone a World Series title.
If it were all about having limitless money to throw at free agents — and to cover up mistakes — the Yankees would have more titles than one in the last 17 seasons.
If it were a function of having the guts and the knack for making big trades that work, Dave Dombrowski would have more than one championship in his 29 years running the Expos (zero), Marlins (one), Tigers (zero), and Red Sox (zero).
You’ve got to check off lots of boxes. Timing comes into play, in the front office — where opportunities with trading partners and with free agent players have to line up — and in the batter’s box and on the bases and in the field. Players have to execute at the right moments. Players in the other uniform may execute a little better, at the critical moments.”
You don’t need a specific statistical category to see Jameson Taillon’s potential, it’s obvious he has the kind repertoire to be a successful MLB pitcher. I think some people are underrating very serious cancer situation he was dealing with. As a young player, that’s another layer of difficulty to overcome.
What?! Taillon had cancer?? I knew Bettis had cancer
Rockies offense will likely fix itself. They will get more production from the catcher position and right field as those positions were non factors on offense last year. Story can’t do any worse and neither can Desmond. Adding a guy to play a bit at first base or in the outfield should be a necessary move but even if that doesn’t happen the Rockies offense should be better than last year, backed by a rotation with more experience and a bullpen that appears to be much better than last year.
WAR is cumulative stat so is worthless in determining reliever worth. Chapman put up a 1.4 WAR with the Cubs, but no one would argue that they could have won it without him. It would be easier to argue that he was worth 8-10 or more wins compared to what they were getting from other relievers late in games. I stopped reading Cameron long ago because of his insistence that the only way to measure player performance is WAR.
“Chapman put up a 1.4 WAR with the Cubs, but no one would argue that they could have won it without him.”
Hi there!
I’ve been posting on the stupidity of that trade by TEEO-the Genius since it went down. Chapman lost Game Seven of the World Series – actually their dementia addled manager Joe Maddon did by taking Hendricks out – and the Cubs lineup got the win back.
That’s how you win the trophy, with your bats and great defense. If you can’t hit you can’t win. That’s why Wrigley Field was emptying out after the third inning of Game 5when the Dodgers jumped out to a sizable lead because the Cubs couldn’t hit in 2017. Cubs fans knew they could not come back and win.
You are clueless about baseball.
LOVE LOVE LOVE Yellich in that outfield, ballpark and City ! Do they have enough to get him?
Sorry, should have mentioned that I’m speaking of Denver….. lol
Not so, the White Sox waited a long time and are still in their rebuild, the Marlins are not in a rush now that the budget is manageable. They will get a haul for Yellich, Realmuto, and Bour. whether it’s this winter or later on. I would think Realmuto is the first to go, he is the best catcher available.
Braves need to use that top farm and get jt and yelich. Prado could be useful until Riley is ready and take on the contracts of tawaza and Ziegler as both expire after this year. Anderson,gohara,pache,Cruz, wentz,fried, plus something else.
As a rookie gohara shut down the nats
Anderson if I’m not mistaken allowed no homeruns all year. Definitely could be a future ace.
I’d like to hear what a marlins fan thinks?
Anderson, Gohara, Fried and Wentz will make a very good rotation in a few years. I would add Rio Ruiz or Camargo to that list to get it done.
Don’t forget to add in Allard
If you want both, you have to start with either Acuna or Albies and then add Riley.
yeah that package would be about light for just yellowish but for both it would likely be a Acuna or bust
Tommy Joseph would hit 30 hr’s in Colorado and could be acquired for a sack of balls.