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Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

By Kyle Downing | December 30, 2017 at 12:31pm CDT

In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Taking Inventory 2017 Brad Ziegler Christian Yelich Dan Straily Derek Dietrich J.T. Realmuto Junichi Tazawa Justin Bour Kyle Barraclough Martin Prado Starlin Castro Wei-Yin Chen

National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon
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View Comments (64)
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64 Comments

  1. Houston We Have A Solution

    7 years ago

    Besides Yelich Bour and Realmuto the inventory is like wal mart or target christmas stuff after christmas.

    Reply
    • slider32

      7 years ago

      That’s four more guys, they already got rid of 3 top guys. That’s a total of seven players. The Marlins should get some great talent for both Yellich and Realmuto.

      Reply
    • Mjm117

      7 years ago

      Walmart and Target got some good stuff tho.

      Reply
  2. O Conchobhair

    7 years ago

    Should be renamed Tanking Inventory for this one lol

    Reply
  3. seamaholic 2

    7 years ago

    Bour would look really nice on the Rockies, with that right-center jet stream at Coors. Him straight up for McMahon would be a win-win.

    2
    Reply
    • wrigleywannabe

      7 years ago

      No way the Marlins do that straight up.

      1
      Reply
      • sandman12

        7 years ago

        Yes, they might. McMahon could be a power-hitting 2B. Marlins have Garrett Cooper to play first.

        Reply
    • hooligan

      7 years ago

      That would be an overpay for a defensively limited and platoon limited player imo. A $10M pillow deal for Duda or a cheaper re-signing of Reynolds and letting McMahon earn his big league spot makes a whole lot of sense to me.

      Reply
      • sandman12

        7 years ago

        Bour is baseball’s biggest sleeper. A late bloomer, he’s done nothing but improve. His OPS last season was 7th among all ML first baseman, about even with Jose Abreu and ahead of Rizzo, Hosmer and the like. He’s rock solid defensively. He’s a vastly better hitter than Yelich or Realmuto. He’s one guy that won’t be traded this off season.

        1
        Reply
    • marlins17

      7 years ago

      It would take more than that. He’ll cost two top 10 prospects and a third lower level guy or older guy like Jordan Patterson that Rox dont have a spot for.

      Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        7 years ago

        Wait, are we talking about the same, first base only, poor defending, platoon likely, under three win, 30 year old? Sheesh. I thought the idea of a top 100 guy like McMahon for him was too generous! Guess Cubs and Yankees fans aren’t the only ones with fantastical valuations of the home team!

        Reply
        • tbonenats

          7 years ago

          lol. exactly. I like Bour but when Alonso is getting 2/13 or whatever it was you know that it isn’t worth trading a guy like Bour. He provides way more value to Marlins than they could net in a trade.

          Reply
        • pohsib_54

          7 years ago

          Which is why they should trade him and anyone else that would actually help them win now and won’t be a part of their future. Tanking is the only way out of mediocrity for a team like the marlins.

          Reply
        • tbonenats

          7 years ago

          they have already pretty much locked up the worst record next year, so they have already talked. selling low on guys or trading players of a position that has lots of FA alternatives which dilutes the return in a trade makes little sense imo. Bour is the type of guy they should offer an extension to.

          Reply
  4. OHHenry992

    7 years ago

    The only one I see being moved really is Straily the others will probably cost too much prospects.

    Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      Straily to BALT for Hunter Harvey or SD for Chris Paddack (my hopes).

      1
      Reply
      • marlins17

        7 years ago

        Wouldnt be upset about either. Give us back Paddack!

        Reply
    • slider32

      7 years ago

      I disagree, teams are trading players for prospects now rather than overpaying for free agents.

      Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      Yelich to Atlanta for two/three of their top tier pitching prospects. Gohara, Anderson and Fried would get it done..

      Reply
      • Backatitagain

        7 years ago

        Based on the Miami priorities, this is a trade idea that might work for both teams:
        Miami Marlins get Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, Nick Markakis and Tyler Flowers (8 WAR and $32 Million cost over four years). Miami could elect Scott Kazmir in exchange for Blair or Wisler if desired.
        Braves get JT Realmuto, Christian Yellich, Martin Prado, and Wei-Yen Chen ( 30 WAR & 152 Million cost over four years).

        Marlins reduce their budget and free up $125 Million dollars in first three years. MOve two non-tradeable contracts.
        Braves add projected 22 WAR at a cost of $5.47MM/WAR. This is an excessive cost compared to 2017 but preserves the farm system.

        This idea focuses on the Miami top priority to save $125 million from payroll commitments and does not attempt to equalize the talent but the value instead. There is no other way Miami can move the Chen contract other than to move proven talent, Chen and Prado together are owed around $90-$106 million with little expected contribution from these mid-30 veterans.

        Reply
  5. neworleanstaints

    7 years ago

    Gordon was really significant as a player, just on the payroll

    Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      I watched every game and never saw better defensive play at 2B. Great personality and crowd favorite + great teammate. His salary was commensurate with his play.

      Reply
  6. 24TheKid

    7 years ago

    Mariners should trade for Straily and Ziegler.

    Reply
  7. tycobb016

    7 years ago

    Rebuild or salary dump? Ozuna brought a little back but the other two were dumps. In order to qualify as a rebuild they would need to trade Yelich and Realmuto and get back top shelf prospects. That would be a rebuild. Straily too.

    Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      Au contraire. My gut says Ozuna brought back nothing.

      Reply
  8. nats3256

    7 years ago

    I would love to see Realmuto wearing a curly W uni. Who in the right mind would take Chen for a salary dump. I don’t know if Miami would have to prospects to go with him for somebody to take that monster of a contract.

    Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      Could happen! Gotta be Soto however. He and Kieboom.

      1
      Reply
      • tbonenats

        7 years ago

        I bet that is what Marlins would want. Doubt Nats offer Soto tho…so I don’t see Realmuto heading to Nats.

        Reply
    • chri

      7 years ago

      Lol my Mets suck but I remember how pissed Mets Nation was when the Nationals signed Weiters last year.

      Reply
  9. j_johnson42

    7 years ago

    Marlins should’ve never traded for straily in the first place. Luis Castillo is gonna be an ace for Cincinnati, I can’t believe the Marlins would get rid of him. When I found out Miami traded Castillo and other prospects for a below average pitcher, I was beyond pissed-Marlins fan

    2
    Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      A dark day for sure. Even darker for me was Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney. Paddack was off to an incredible start.

      2
      Reply
    • fanontheropes

      7 years ago

      Just think, the guy responsible for that stupid trade, to go with countless others, was kept around by Jeter. then people wonder why most fans don’t have faith in the direction new ownership chose to go.

      Reply
    • Chris Sale Amateur Tailor

      7 years ago

      I disagree I think that was a good trade for the Marlins at the time Casteel was a big? Obviously it’s worked out well for the reds but Australia has been a solid player for the Marlins and could probably bring back a similar Prospect to Castillo right now

      Reply
  10. Tavares

    7 years ago

    Is Kyle ahead of all of us? “The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018”.
    Yeah, I know it’s a typo, I was just messing around 🙂

    But I was checking Ziegler stats, and he isn’t a strikeout pitcher, he has 6.0 K/9 (career stats) and he had a worst year with the D-Backs in 2015 (4.8 K/9 althought with a better ERA: 1.85)

    Reply
    • j_johnson42

      7 years ago

      Yeah I think he just had bad luck in 2017. He’ll be back in 2018 I can see him having a bounce back year. I’ve always loved Ziegler

      Reply
  11. chri

    7 years ago

    Anybody else think that Jeter and Co. are making the right move to rebuild?

    3
    Reply
    • Sideline Redwine

      7 years ago

      Nope. If you get rid of your studs, you have to at least get good prospects in return. They are giving these guys away (partially because they have told teams they “need” to dump salary).

      Reply
      • chri

        7 years ago

        They got good prospects for Ozuna and with Stanton, it was either prospects or salary relief. They chose the latter.

        1
        Reply
    • fanontheropes

      7 years ago

      They can explain it until they’re blue in the face and it makes some sense due to payroll. As long as Mike Hill is still around making trades and signings, Miami will never be a consistent winner. Hill has had enough time to prove his worth, instead he’s done nothing but prove how inept he is at his job. He gets taken to the cleaners in every deal he makes. Jeter’s first move should have been to can Hill when he canned Samson.

      Reply
    • marlins17

      7 years ago

      Yes i do. As a marlins fan, i want to see Yelich, Realmuto, Bour, Strailey and Barraclough all traded. But i expect 3-4 top 100 prospects and another 3-4 top 250 prospects plus some lower heralded young guys. 2021-2022 will be fun

      1
      Reply
    • matthew102402

      7 years ago

      They are making the right move to rebuild. It’s how they’re doing it is what makes everyone sick to their stomach.

      1
      Reply
    • Chris Sale Amateur Tailor

      7 years ago

      they absolutely made the right move to rebuild they’ve just done a terrible job at it. people that think that that team is close to contending are way off they needed to top-flite pictures and there is no way they were going to get them

      Reply
  12. claude raymond

    7 years ago

    Pardon me regarding this reach from a Giants fan. Feel free to comment without laughing too hard:

    Belt, Strickland, Osich, beede, Shaw, Joan Gregorio, Aramis Garcia, Reynolds for

    Yelich, straily, barraclough, bour.

    Reply
    • sandman12

      7 years ago

      Well, to begin with, Belt makes more money than the four Marlins combined – and he’s not as good as Justin Bour. The evaluation only gets worse from there.

      Reply
      • claude raymond

        7 years ago

        Okay, BUT all those top prospects?

        Reply
        • claude raymond

          7 years ago

          Prospects:
          Top pitcher
          Top catcher to replace realmuto after they trade him
          Another almost top pitcher
          Top power hitter Shaw
          Top outfielder not named Ramos

          Are you aware of the prospects? Remember, I follow the Giants system like you probably follow the Marlins system

          Reply
        • Mjm117

          7 years ago

          Marlins are looking to trade Yelich and J.T. to bring back Elite prospects. They’re not giving them away to dump salary like Gordon, Stanton, and Ozuna. Belt alone makes no sense because Bour is better and cheaper. And worse, correct me if I’m wrong, none of Giants prospects are even in any top 100 list. But even if I’m wrong, other teams can easily surpass your proposal. Your trade offer would be ideal for the Giants but make absolutely no sense for the Fish. IMO

          2
          Reply
        • marlins17

          7 years ago

          I follow everyones prospects and they just dont have the upside of most everyone elses top prospects. Not worth making a deal with the Giants. I like Shaw, Ramos and intrigued by Beede but dont trust him. We need some nearly sure thing prospects.

          1
          Reply
        • southi

          7 years ago

          No offense claude raymond, but those prospects just aren’t that great. There are several teams that have the prospects to make much better deals for Marlins players if they are willing.

          Reply
        • tbonenats

          7 years ago

          Just because prospects are a teams/organizations top prospects doesn’t mean they are considered to be good or true “top prospects” – Giants are in a phase of rebuilding their farm system so their best prospects aren’t true top prospects

          Reply
        • Chris Sale Amateur Tailor

          7 years ago

          those are not top prospects it would take more than those prospects to just get yellowish because those prospects are not as good as the Adam Eaton deal

          Reply
    • claude raymond

      7 years ago

      I appreciate the responses. I was curious what marlins fans felt.

      Many giants that were instrumental to 3 titles were not in the top 100. Panik, Belt, Crawford, Duffy, Wilson, Romo, etc. I’m not saying that the current 100 don’t belong there. I’m only saying that probably 100 more could. Those guys that rank them have not likely personally seen these 100. They haven’t scouted, timed, graded, etc. No eye test.

      Based on track record, maybe the Giants value of these players should mean something.

      My list had THEIR top prospects at SP, C, and many #2prospects.

      I do agree that Bour is, or at least should be untouchable, but the Marlins r unpredictable, IMO.

      I agree, my proposed trade is pie in the sky. But not crazy

      Reply
      • Chris Sale Amateur Tailor

        7 years ago

        I think you very much underestimate how much value yelish has

        Reply
        • claude raymond

          7 years ago

          Who’s yelish play for?

          Reply
        • claude raymond

          7 years ago

          Is yelish yellowish?

          Reply
    • claude raymond

      7 years ago

      Btw, my estimate of YELICH’s value really doesn’t mean much. As February nears, the Marlins asking price will diminish until a deal is done. You people that don’t value the Giants prospects are not the Marlins. The giants already traded Arroyo and minimal others for Longoria. They convinced TBay to kick in some money.

      Don’t make the mistake to think that Arroyo was that high on the giants prospect list just because he was in the top 100. The players I listed originally ARE desired by other teams. Top 100 doesn’t mean that much to teams that have a TON of scouts and evaluators. They know a little more than what you posters do and more than the list makers do.

      The 2014 Giants won the title with a 25 man roster consisting of 15 home grown players. An infield of gold glove finalists was on that team-1st, 2nd, SS, 3b. So if you all think teams have as little regard for the Giants prospects as you do you’re likely mistaken.

      Arroyo? He couldn’t bat his weight in the bigs. Top 100 though

      Reply
      • Mjm117

        7 years ago

        There are a lot people outside the Marlins org that don’t value the Giants prospects just the same or less.

        Nobody is saying they’re going to suck, other teams can offer BETTER. Plain and simple.

        Why would the Marlins asking price diminish in Feb for Yelich? Yelich has 5 years of control. Unless Yelich regresses Or gets injured, Marlins asking price shouldn’t diminish.

        Reply
        • claude raymond

          7 years ago

          It will if they’re having trouble trading. Why do you think the market is so slow? Buyers are waiting for teams to lower their asking prices.

          Btw, my mention of Arroyo was clearly intended to prove that the Rays DIDNT get a better offer. There are MUCH BETTER prospects out there AND TBay even kicked in cash so SF could still make deals.

          You missed my points. Plain and simple.

          Reply
        • Mjm117

          7 years ago

          Dude bc aside from the Giants there was minimal interest in Longo’s decline play and his onerous contract.

          Marlins have no reason to lower their prices. Leverage is ALL on their side.

          I get your point, just feel it’s highly unlikely.
          Plain and simple.

          Reply
  13. pasha2k

    7 years ago

    I think Jeter is helping his old team to the slap in the face to all the other teams that want Stanton. Personally I hope Stanton has a Horrible yr just like I’m sure the others too. Doesn’t anyone think it’s odd Judge is like a giant compared to his family?

    Reply
    • mickeym

      7 years ago

      Judge is adopted.

      Reply
      • pasha2k

        7 years ago

        Thank you for saying that!!!

        Reply
  14. 0428April

    7 years ago

    I would love to manage the Marlins if I got to do it my way. I would fill the roster with speed and bunt every guy. The opposing pitcher would be soooo pissed. Their outfielders would be so bored. MLB would try to step in and say I was ruining the game and I’d tell them our plan is to win 50 games the most awkward way possible. I would do the smallest ball possible as they are going to have the least amount of power in the majors anyway.

    Reply
  15. tim815

    7 years ago

    Though I’m about alone here, a good way to judge how “serious” the Marlins (or any team, for that matter) is about upgrading, check their third day choices.

    From Rounds 11-25 or so, plenty of rather good professional talent remains. Good talent, but not necessarily MLB level quality.

    Some teams seek out quality college juniors, and offer them what’s needed to get them to sign. ($40-$65 K, perhaps).

    Other teams lean more toward signing seniors, or high school players not heading to college. Or, perhaps, juniors with less leverage.

    If a team values getting the best talent they can in the “two or three waiver wire purchase value” types, they will upgrade their talent pipeline, and some of those third day picks will end up on their 40 Man roster, eventually.

    Or, they can “cheap out” and blame it on something else.

    Reply

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