The winter isn’t over — far from it, in fact — but a few teams have gone further than others in determining their direction for the coming season. Out in San Francisco, there’s no question that the Giants are pushing in some chips in hopes of rebounding from a miserable 2017 season, while at the same time avoiding a wholesale raid on the farm or major long-term contract entanglements.
Walking that kind of tightrope is never easy. For an organization with so many major contract commitments already on the books, there was an obvious risk both in going too far and not far enough. Let’s not forget that the Giants initially set out in pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton, too, suggesting both that the team would have blown past the luxury tax line in some circumstances (and perhaps may still) and also that the ultimate series of moves was (at least in part) something of a backup plan.
Having entered the offseason with glaring holes at several positions, and the above-noted limitations on resources, here’s what the Giants front office has come up with thus far:
- acquired third baseman Evan Longoria and $14.5MM for infielder Christian Arroyo, outfielder Denard Span, and pitching prospects Stephen Woods and Matt Krook
- acquired outfielder Andrew McCutchen for righty Kyle Crick, outfield prospect Bryan Reynolds, and $500K in international pool space
- signed outfielder Austin Jackson (two years, $6MM)
- signed catcher Nick Hundley (one year, $2.5MM)
- traded away lefty Matt Moore for pitching prospects Sam Wolff and Israel Cruz
- added infield depth through claims and minor-league signings, including Engelb Vielma, Josh Rutledge, Chase d’Arnaud, and catcher Hector Sanchez
In the aggregate, the organization has parted with some youthful assets and MLB pitching depth while reallocating those resources (including Moore’s $9MM salary) to other areas of need. And the team is still flying just beneath the luxury tax line, with the inclusion of Span in the Longoria swap helping to manage the accounting.
The results surely aren’t bombproof. Longoria and McCutchen, the two main additions, are no longer the superstars they once were. Meanwhile, the San Francisco pitching staff will need to rely on some unproven youngsters. Even having bypassed several internal options to make Jackson the anticipated fourth outfielder, the team still needs to acquire a center fielder (or choose one from within) to take regular time or platoon with Jackson.
There’s an optimistic view here, too. While Longo and Cutch aren’t likely to carry the club, they don’t need to do that to justify their additions. Both are still in their early thirties and it would hardly be surprising to find there are still a few more high-quality seasons left, given their undeniable talent levels. The pitching reductions may feel somewhat riskier than they really are, as the Giants do have quite a few arms on the rise. And it seems reasonable to expect that the front office already has a pretty good idea of what its options are in center. The team could still land a bigger asset if the opportunity is right; or, it can stay beneath the luxury tax line while relying on cheaper options. Retaining that flexibility while still making notable gains in roster quality was surely a chief aim.
Of course, the offseason is still not over. But many if not most or all of the team’s significant moves are in the books; at a minimum, we can see how they’ve set the stage for completing things in the next few weeks. So, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership for a mid-term offseason grade (link for app users):
Grade the Giants' Offseason Efforts To Date
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B 51% (8,015)
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C 23% (3,578)
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A 18% (2,777)
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D 5% (854)
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F 4% (572)
Total votes: 15,796
Well said, Jeff. Thanks for that optimistic summary. But their pitching still terrifies me. I understand the objective of staying below the luxury tax, but it’s tough to be cheap AND bring a team back from the dead.
I think it’s tough to be cheap and have the 2nd highest payroll.
Honestly the pitching doesn’t scare me at all, the top 3 in the rotation are as good as anyone but the top 2 underperformed due to injury and the bullpen underperformed a lot in part of its to 2 being injured, those rebounds are a lot more realistic than a pence or span or Moore or Sandoval rebound 2 of which are gone now. Also improving the defense will change the pitching and even if both cutch and Jackson perform at league average it will be a vast improvement. Do I pick them to take the division? Probably not but they will be a lot more fun to watch regardless.
Pence’s numbers were hampered by his early season injury and trying to play with it, then not rehabbing enough to get his bat back (say in minors). He was Pence-like in batting line the last 2-3 months of the season, so I’m not worried about his bat, but rather worried that he’ll play injured or out of playing shape again.
Yeah, not taking the division, Dodgers are too far ahead, but the Wild Card is definitely reasonable.
But starting pitching should be pretty good in 2018 with Cueto rebound. Bumgarner already back to norms, but Cueto had blister issues that affected his pitching. As long as trainers helped him maintain caullus on his throwing hand so that blisters don’t form again, he should be closer to normal than to 2018. Meanwhile, Samardzija has been an OK 3rd starter, and Stratton has elite spin rates on some of his pitches, so I’m very encouraged that he’ll take next step and be a mid-rotation starter who can eat innings. 5th starter not as important, it wasn’t important 2008-2012, and won’t be in 2018 if the top 4 produces as expected.
Giants finished bottom of NL West…..things should improve but these acquisitions are not championship pieces….unless they catch lightning in a bottle.
… which has always been their strategy in WS years.
Yep. Heard the exact same thing in 2010, 2012 and 2014 too… Your personal opinion of what “championship pieces” are, may not be the same as someone else’s.
Teams are more than the sum of their parts.
Get real. No one said the giants would be at the bottom 3 of the division any one of those years
His point is that nobody said the Giants had championship pieces in those years too. And few did, besides myself.
As I’ve been saying before the Giants won any championships: Giants, Team of the 2010 Decade!
Hoping guys revert back to their 2013 selves isn’t a sound strategy for building a team in 2018. The Giants could improve, it’s not impossible, but you don’t have to squint very hard to see them being really really bad again.
Steve and I have been discussing just how good this team would have been in 2013, especially compared with rosters from the rest of the league. The AJax signing was another good one from that perspective, ha.
If they were shooting for a solid 2013 team I don’t think they would have traded away a solid CF (in 2013) in Denard Span and a 2013 Cy Young candidate in Matt Moore..
If they were REALLY shooting for the best 2013 money can buy, they would have acquired Jacoby Ellsbury instantly.
Five years is an eternity in this landscape.
That said, good on the Gs. Even though they’ll likely be damned by half-measures, they’ve brought in some guys that will be enjoyable to root for.
I am all for teams going for it and trying to build around two franchise players and go for a last run or two. I will take that over a Pirates/Marlins dump and rebuild anyday.
Why would they want to revert to 2013? They finished 76-86.
I think that this year’s roster is actually better than the 2016 Giants team on paper. If Bumgarner and Cueto ( and maybe even Melancon) return to their 2016 form and players like Posey, Cutch, and Longoria play how they did last year (although likely with fewer HRs in SF) the Giants could be a very competitive team like the one we saw through (especially the first half) of 2016 in which the Giants had the best record in baseball at the All-Star Break; Evans didn’t acquire these guys for their 2013 form.
These are “if’s” and I don’t expect the Giants to outperform the Dodgers but I’m not so sure that the Dbacks, Rockies, Cardinals, or Brewers are really that far ahead of this 2018 Giants team.
Everyone seems to think the Giants acquired Longo and Cutch for their 2013 former glories. They did not. They had two black holes offensively and defensively (negative WAR!) and they both are projected to add about 3 WAR instead, so their additions swung the team up 8-10 WAR, depending on which WAR system you prefer to use.
Surprised nobody has mentioned, but if you won’t believe Giants fans, perhaps you’ll believe sabermetrics. The Fangraphs Depth Charts had the Giants in the WC2 position after the Cutch trade, and they are still there now, behind Dodgers, Cubs, Nats, and Cards and 1 win ahead of Mets for the WC2. D-backs would probably jump ahead if they sign JDM, but the Red Sox seems to be the expected landing, though they did grab Greinke under the radar, so we’ll see.
And the Giants projections has baked into it that Bumgarner, Cueto, Melancon, and Smith do not return to their prior goodness, because of their bad 2017 seasonal numbers. If they do perform as before, that would add 2-6 wins to that total, and make them more competitive for WC1 spot against Cards..
2013? Try 2016. Bumgarner (146 ERA+), Cueto (144 ERA+) Shark (105 ERA+) Derek Law (190 ERA+), Will Smith (139 ERA+), is what we saw from a few pitchers in that year. For the hitters, Belt (135 OPS+), Posey (115 OPS+ in ’16 and 129 OPS+ in ’17), Crawford (108 OPS+) even Hunter Pence (118 OPS+) had had very good to decent years. Add Longoria (127 OPS+) in 2016 and McCuthen (121 OPS+) in 2017. No need to revert back to 2013, when their more recent selves is good enough to win.
Effectively added 15 wins to their lineup by spending 15m (+the loss of arroyo, crick, and Reynolds). Regardless of if the team is post season bound or not, it’s hard to argue with the creativity of the Giants offseason.
Creativity? lmao. They just went after all the big names. Even Austin Jackson, while cheap, was a mistake.
They navigated Under their self imposed salary cap and stayed out of any burdensome long term financial commitments. It has nothing to do with the players being big names.
Cot’s has them at $192M which doesn’t include Austin Jackson. Considering minor league call ups throughout the year cost $2-3 M and the fact they still need pitching upgrades, it’s highly unlikely they stay under $197 M. These moves also leave them little flexibility if they want trade for sonething at the deadline.
You’re right Fred. They have no clue what they’re doing. They haven’t thought of the concerns you brought up. Of course, everything they’ve done you expected.
Stratton was excellent last year. He’s the FOURTH starter. So I guess a fifth starter is now the focus of all the doubters.
The Giants have been EXTREMELY creative. Below the cap and prepared to blow by the cap NEXT year (research the tax parameters please), they gave up very little in the way of prospects, and they even convinced teams to kick in some cash. After all that, people like Fred are still gonna find some fault in their strategy.
When they make the next trade (see Baggerly comment) and acquire a young centerfielder that plays great defense, I’m sure the Freds will complain about the cfs strikeout rate
To me, it’s not creative to just sign or trade for big names. I guess we agree to disagree here.
I don’t know why they have a self imposed cap. Their payroll will exceed the $197 M luxury tax. They’re at the line now and still have holes. Might as well go well over the line to get actual upgrades like Darvish.
Research the tax, Fred
Everyone has holes
They need to bring back Timmy.
They need to shore up that bullpen now. There are some good options out there, but I’d look for the most versatile bullpen piece avaialable – preferably someone with some experience to balance that pen.
Agreed.. The bullpen is an obvious weakness for them.. Since they are running low on available tax space maybe a creative trade with a team like the Yankees with a very deep bullpen and needs elsewhere could provide the answer.. Someone like Chasen Shreve who has shown the ability to be very solid and probably wouldn’t cost much to acquire.. He isn’t a sexy name but a move to the pitcher friendly parks of the NL West and out of the AL East might be exactly what he needs to reach his ceiling.. Nate Jones from the White Sox makes sense as well but at $4m he might cost more than the Giants are willing to spend..
Only deal the Yanks would make with SF is to dump Ellsbury. The Giants have nothing repeat nothing the Yanks need or want!
At that point it would just be easier to get a better reliever who was more expensive.
Acquiring David Hernandez wouldn’t be a bad start.
Re-acquire, you mean.
They had to at least put a team on the field that would get people coming to the stadium. They have lots of future commitments/bad contracts. Only two players Bum/Posey would really bring back high end prospects, so they were in a tough spot regarding a rebuild. Might as well give it another shot.
“They had to at least put a team on the field that would get people coming to the stadium.”
That is 100% what the Giants moves are about. They have no illusions of competing against the Dodgers.
exactly it didn’t make sense for them to rebuild when so many other teams are doing that might as well try to compete and who knows one Goldschmidt injury and you could sneak into the wild card
I still think the Rox are better than the Giants so even if the snakes regress, I doubt the giants have a WC chance. Too many other solid clubs in the NL like the cards, brewers, Phillies could even be a surprise WC contender this year. The Mets could even contend if they stay healthy. There’s too many “what if’s” in the NL right now and I think the giants are one of the least likely to actually happen
The Rockies will not be better than SF this year. Like always, they have no starting pitchers that can eat up innings to keep bullpen fresh. Rox have improved their bullpen but they will be exhausted by August
Honestly, even if Longoria and McCutchen are declining, they are still improvements over what they have. If Belt and Crawford bounce back, they should at least be competitive.
In a changing game that seems to be ruled by younger players, the Giants just keep getting older.
This thought that guys at 30-33 are too old is garbage.. yes we’d like younger guys but just because a guy is 30-33 doesn’t mean they can’t play and play well that’s just stupid to me.. I’m willing to bet that Clutch and Longo both have very good years .. Also I believe people are really hung up on last year with that team.. they lost Mad Bum to injury and Belt to a concussion.. they were not even close to full strength all year with guys going in and out of the lineup with injuries.. I think they will be better .. I see them winning enough to get a wildcard easy.
And cueto’s blister, Parker breaking his collarbone, melancon needing surgery, Smith’s Tommy John, spans shoulder etc. Etc. Everyone had a crap health year
Slater out for 3 months, Gorkys not getting injured… too many unfortunate occurrences
Before the Austin Jackson signing I had wondered if something based around Samardzija and Pillar would work, as the main pieces
I think that Jason Vargas would be the perfect guy for the Giants to add to the rotation. He would come fairly cheap and could replace Moore, leaving the younger guys to fight for the #5 spot.
I like what the Giants have done.
Will it work? Probably not, but the same will be true of 28 other teams, too.
This is their best path to contention in the foreseeable future and they are exploiting a new market inefficiency, namely the “no one wants old guys anymore” thing.
I feel they bought mediocre on some assets. If they do well this year and still don’t make the play-offs they can sell and add more next Winter to make one last push or sell off the pieces for a prospect profit and start the rebuild. If they do well, it would make all of this pay off and if they do poorly they can finally start the rebuild while still running out fun to watch players.
I wouldn’t pencil them in for anything and one year off the rebuild isn’t going to kill them as they don’t have too many assets they could unload. Keep getting draft picks and having a good team out there. It won’t speed up the rebuild but would make for a better property
Nothing mentioned about their terrible bullpen that didn’t improve or losing 1 starter. They were bad last year because of more things than just lacking power hitters. 2 positions filled and weaker farm system.
Moore was the worst starter in baseball last year, not exactly a huge lose. Cueto is the key to the starters. Longoria will provide better production than Arroya the next few years at 3b. I’ve always liked Crick since I saw him be dominant in A-ball, but he was terribly inconsistent. The lineup is younger than the 2010 team. They get a solid B. Otani or Stanton would have been an A
This farm system talk is stupid too.. they always talk about the giants having a bad farm system that’s been forever they still find ways to trade prospects that everyone thinks a bad..
Because the farm system is bad. Longora has a very large contract that no one else wanted. McCutchen is declining and had 14 million left. Any team in baseball could have had the prospects to make those trades
What’s your source for knowing that nobody else wanted Longoria? Or are you just pulling that out of your a$$?
Because of the farm system being so bad they couldn’t secure players that were not salary dumps. Arroyo was their #1 prospect. Now they must wait on the waiver wire to pick up bullpen pieces and cross their fingers.
Arroyo was not their #1 prospect. Baseball America released their top 100 prospects list yesterday and Arroyo wasn’t even on it. Who was? Heliot Ramos, the Giants real #1 prospect.
Arroyo had to many at bats to be eligible to be on the top 100.
“Arroyo had to many at bats to be eligible to be on the top 100.”
Arroyo had 125 ABs in 2017. So how come Dansby Swanson could have 129 ABs in 2016 and be on the 2017 Top 100 list?
So it sounds like BS.
In addition, only one Giant was on the 2017 top 100 list, Tyler Beede at #89. Arroyo was not on the 2017 top 100 list.
Andrew Suarez and Beede, Plus Stratton performed well. Blach as your lefty swingman and Will Smith coming back. Melancon needs to perform better, and he can.
Props to SF for being hugely active in what has been a ridiculously slow offseason. Really wish they would have landed Stanton so he wouldn’t be mashing at Fenway…
Big name acquisitions in Longoria and Cutch, just curious how much production they’ll get out of them, not the same players they both were 5 years ago… At least the giants fans have something to look forward to with all they changes.
Surprised at the results of the poll. This is an easy A for me.
Given the restrictions that they went into the offseason with (preexisting, massive, longterm commitments to an aging core, a lousy farm system, and a directive to stay under the luxury cap), I don’t see how they could have plausibly done better.
Despite last year’s 98 losses, this was nearly a .500 team on paper before all the moves. And then they got two pretty good players in Longoria and Cutch (replacing two utter black holes at 3B and LF), and got a solid player to help fill the other black hole (CF). And they did this without giving away any major prospects.
It’s not a plan without risk. They’re still old (older, in fact), the bullpen is still probably lousy, and the back of the rotation could be quite bad.
But they’re fringe contenders now, which I think is the best-case scenario given where they started. 2020 and 2021 will be ugly, but that was already true.
I gave them a D.
I think they might have panicked with the Longoria trade and taking on that much. Todd Frazier or Eduardo Nunez made sense.
I also think the andrew mccutchen trade was an overpay for 1 year. I think they should have gone after carlos gomez who posted 2 WAR and had a 110 WRC+ last year instead.
Austin Jackson was a steal.
Adding Frazier or Nunez would have pushed the Giants over their intended salary cap. Trading for Longoria did not.
While I don’t agree with the idea that the Giants will be a legitimate playoff contender, without a doubt in my mind they’ve improved for 2018 so I gave them an A for that reason.
However I think that they’d have been better served in the long run to rebuild than go this route.
I think the moves they made help the long term goal of not tearing down while still hopefully being able to get younger in the future
B+ this team is in a tough spot no doubt about that but I think they did their best to improve the roster and at least have a fighting chance at a wild card. I like them to sign Dyson for Center and Holland as another relief arm then I would be able to give them an A
I also give them a grade in the A-/B+ range.
I think the Jackson signing makes it pretty clear that the Giants believe Steven Duggar will be ready sooner rather than later. I could see Jackson starting the season in CF, switching to a platoon with the LH-hitting Duggar at some point, and then move Jackson into a bench role if Duggar sticks.
The goal isn’t to catch the Dodgers: it’s all about earning a WC spot, then anything can happen.
Jackson would be a fringe player to make a contending team out of ST-Grade C/C- Bullpen needing so much help=Grade-D(very generous) Cutch/Longoria trades=Grade-B(maybe Cutch can be flipped when they’re out of it at the trade deadline) In denial about the playoffs=Grade F-
Lincecum to shore up the pen. And by that I mean pitch the 5-8 innings of blown games.
with that high of a payroll, who are they overpaying, the whole team?
I concur with fellow fans here – Giants didn’t really have a choice with tons of immovable contracts on their roster coming off bad or injury-plagued seasons. They still had a solid core that they didn’t want to trade (which would alienate fans) that deserved one more shot after bringing three world championships to SF.
If the goal was to stay under the tax, keep those draft picks, and build a winning team again, they did that in spades. Heck, if the team tanks they can still trade off pieces for prospects, and some of them might build more value by having normal seasons.
I know I’m an overly optimistic fan here and they will probably be a .500 club, but at least these moves give me hope and excitement for the upcoming season.
I can’t wait for the 2018 season quite honestly! The Giants are more than capable of securing a wild card spot as currently built!
Oh and bring back Brian Wilson too, ya know to just bring drama.
Evans has giving the Giants a chance to compete for a playoff spot, and he has kept almost all his trading chips, so if they are close he can pull off a trade to make a run for it. If the Giants have another sorry season, no harm, Evans hasn’t given up any known future studs, stayed under the luxury tax for next year, and can think of trading away veterans for the future.
I’m not sure the complaints about the bullpen are entirely warranted. The improved outfield defense-McCutchen in right/Jackson and platoon partner in center should allow starters to pitch deeper into games. The bullpen, already taxed With the losses of Melancon for most of the year and Smith for all of the year, had to mop up the messes that starters got into due to poor run prevention. Getting Melancon and Smith back, coupled with improved defense, will result in a solid bullpen. They might not be a top bullpen but they will be more than adequate.
As bad as he was last year, I do believe they will regret trading Moore away. Also thought Dyson would be a better fit in CF instead of Jackson.
They will certainly regret it if they don’t find some more pitching this offseason. I get that you want to stay under the luxury tax and all, but jeez wake up and buy a pitcher!
I think they did a pretty good job without gutting their farm and bringing in a couple of solid veterans to their lineup, plus trading away a terrible starter to the Rangers. I also have a lot of respect for Bochy as a manager getting a lot out of his players. If Bum and Cueto have good seasons, they may not beat the Dodgers, but could contend for a wild card.
Last season on the radio, Javier Lopez, part of the Core 4 (Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, Casilla) said the current bullpen is unfairly compared to the Core 4. He said the 4 struggled before they became great. He’s right. Romo came up through the system successfully but the others didn’t find their niche right away.
He said the current bullpen is on a similar path. Consider that Smith and Melancon were non-factors last year due to injury. And the others have had ups and downs. Dyson has been excellent and horrible and excellent again. Moronta and Fernandez have high expectations on them. It’s likely many of you “experts” don’t even recognize those names. There are new coaches and maybe they can help turn Osich into the pitcher management expects him to become.
EVERY team has question marks. And every team has players, relievers, that struggled for years and then found their own way. Duensing, Morrow, and others are the Affeldt (former starter) Casilla, Lopez of today.
Its almost so impossible to address every possible weakness especially when you think you have strengths. The bullpen, if healthy (eg smith, melancon) could very easily be stellar
This is about the only thing mlbtr will do that I see not having any value. Why are we grading the moves before a single game has been played? They could win 90 games or 60 nobody knows yet. This is like your kid coming home from picture day in early August and saying well I got an A this semester.
“Why are we grading the moves before a single game has been played?”
We’re just killing time until Jake Arrieta signs a minor league deal.
The entire point of this site is speculation. It’s in the title.
I understand that some people don’t find the polls interesting, but I actually think they’re only worth doing when the games haven’t been played. Obviously, we don’t know if the moves will have the impact they hope in the standings. That doesn’t mean they can’t be assessed and opined on.
I love the polls!!! Keep them coming
What’s the point of grading off-season moves once the games are being played? It’s about how good you think the moves were, not seeing the results. Once the games are being played there no point in grades. The standings make grades unnecessary.
Giants did a great job with what they had to work with. They were awful this season and added pieces that immediately make them better without giving up major prospects or draft picks. In no way are they WS favorites, but at least they’ll be competitive.
They are under the luxury tax so they’ll have more international money to spend next season. Also second pick in the draft.
Not sure why anyone would say they had a bad off season. They weren’t going to add Trout or Sale lol
This would have been an unstoppable team in 2012
Yeah, the 2018 Giants would have won the 2012 World Series over the… 2012 Giants?
Positioned to be able to try to spin deals to unload: Dyson, McCutchen, and Pence at the trade deadline in exchange for younger, cheaper players/prospects.,
Who’s to say that the Giants won’t be in contention..?? The Dodgers will probably win the NL West/Kershaw will choke in the postseason, and the Rockies, DBacks, Cards, etc, are not a sure bet.
I voted B for the offseason so far. I don’t care that they had a horrible season last year- it was not predicated to be that way and it only happened due to injuries IMO. The additions of cutch and Longoria will help regardless If they aren’t superstars anymore. I think Longoria will have a great bounce back year and of the pitching staff stays healthy they will contend for the Post season.
The current incarnation of the Giants reminds me of the Angels teams from the early 80s. They had more than their share of players north of 30, but they were always in the hunt for the AL West title. It was like watching an all star team – Carew, DeCinces, Sutton, Grich, Downing, Boone, Baylor, Fred Lynn, Ken Forsch, Geoff Zahn, etc. That front office had a knack for acquiring veterans who still had a lot in the tank. Giants could have a great year in 2018, but all those “ifs” need to break the right way.
Giants definitely deserve a solid B.
They’ve improved the team while staying under the luxury tax. What were they really going to do? Go way over and have a 50% penatly? They didn’t have attractive enough contracts to go into rebuild mode.
Things keeping them from an A…they haven’t really addressed the rotation which needs another arm, they don’t have really any thing left to spend without dumping more salary, couldn’t get Ozuna.
If they get Dyson, gamble on a veteran bounce back starter at minimum and find a way to trade for a 2-3 year controllable starter who will eat innings and not be terrible (ie. Chad Bettis), I’d actually give them an A.
They should really be drumming up their international prospect signing to supplement how terrible that farm is. They’re going to have a lot of room for fresh blood around 2021.
I understand the Giants wanting to load up and make one last run at a World Series. But it’s going to bite them in the long-run. They should have learned from the Phillies mistake of having a roster full of aging veterans with a horrific minor-league system. It leads to years of rebuilding. As a Braves fan even I can relate to seeing an old team fall apart and the minor league guys not being good enough to get the job done as what happened to them in the mid 2000s.
The Giants are much younger then those Phillies teams. And there farm system isn’t horrific.
According to Baseball America the Giants farm system ranked 24th going into the 2017 season. That number is bound to be lower when they do their 2018 list due to the guys they’ve traded to get Longoria and McCutchen, including arguably their best position prospect.
Also, according to B/R, the Giants batters average age was 29.5 in 2017. That was 5th oldest in 2017. Their pitchers average age was 28.9. That was 8th oldest in 2017. Those numbers have not improved for 2018.
And, it’s closer to the Phillies numbers than you think. Here’s the numbers for the 2013 Phillies. Batters age was 30.0. That was 4th oldest. Pitchers age was 28.7. That was 11th oldest.
Like I said, I understand them wanting to load up for one last run while they still have all these guys, but it’s going to bite them in the long run. That doesn’t make me a hater or anything. It’s just me acknowledging reality.
The farm may not drop in ranking, and might even improve. Drafting in the #2 spot will give them at least a couple promising prospects. Tyler Beede was the only prospect on the 2017 top 100 list, not Arroyo. Heliot Ramos supplanted Arroyo as their top position prospect, and Shaw has come on as well. All of which the Giants were able to hold on to.
And actually the age difference is not a close as you thin., The difference in batting age between the 2013 Phils and 2017 Giants in 1.1 years. That may sound close, but the difference between the youngest and oldest teams in batting age in 2013 was only 3.8 years, and in 2017 the difference was 4.0 years, making 1.1 years significantly different.
Pitching age was very close with a difference of 0.2. But the departure of Moore, means being replaced by one of Blach, Stratton, Beede, or Suarez. The 32 year old Kontos is gone as well. At least a few of those mentioned will be in the pen, meaning the pitching age will undoubtedly decrease.
You and all the others saying the Giants should go into a rebuild are saying the Giants should just punt on guys like Bumgarner, Posey Crawford, Belt, Cueto, and Melancon. They aren’t getting true value for them in a fire sale.
I posted the numbers. Where are you getting 1.1 at? The difference between 29.5 and 30.0 is only 0.5. The Giants pitching in 2017 was actually older than the 2013 Phillies pitching.
The part of this I disagree with is that they were already in that spot. They already had a terrible farm system and a ton of longterm commitments to aging veterans. Does shipping out a couple of B-level prospects and adding Longoria’s contract really exacerbate the situation that much? I don’t think so. Certainly I think it’s a worthwhile gamble.
Hard data suggests the prime is 26-29 seasons with a standard bell curve decline on both ends.
How can you be in decline before you have even reached your peak?
Do you understand what a bell curve looks like? It just means peak value is centered around those age ranges. The mean of those other ages are less.
I’m not sure this data is valid anymore though. The decline part of the curve has definitely moved towards a younger age than it used to.
Fangraphs crunched their numbers and found that the decline doesn’t start til 34.
Hey Giants fans plenty of teams dealt with players down years and key injuries. The Cards for one and they didn’t lose 98 GAMES..so what makes your chances better then St Louis,Colorado,Arizona,Mets,or for that matter the Padres?
The Giants had only 1 position player and starter that didn’t go on the DL. A turn around is easy to envision.
The Rockies,Cardinals,and the Brewers were better and have improved. Not to mention their younger and have stronger farms to add better players at the deadline if needed. Don’t sleep on Arizona or the Mets…
It’s debatable whether or not that the Rockies have improved. They did spend a lot of money on their bullpen, but the moves were more lateral than any real improvement.
I can almost guarantee the D’backs won’t be as good let alone better. In 2017 they were remarkably healthy and many players had the best years of their careers. Plus Greinke will be 34. This is basically the same team that lost 93 games in 2016. They won’t lose 93 again, but they won’t win 93 again either.
Why do people think that what team they saw most recently defines who that team is going forward? If that was the case there would be no worst to firsts, and we all know that isn’t true.
I give them a solid B. This team will start the season with a vastly improved lineup over last seasons that Las Vegas odds makers, and all the baseball prognosticators had finishing right around 85-87 wins. Freak accidents, deaths in the family and injuries coupled up for a perfect storm of under-achievement. The thing that keeps popping up is how old this team is, BS. The bullpen is going to be competitive to dominant if Smith and Melancon are healthy. If not, it’s rough. But show me another Bullpen that can sustain loosing their closer and best 8th inning lefty specialist and not struggle. Giants started last year with Moore and Cain as the 4-5 starters! Stratton and Blach are clear improvements here. What kills me is so many of you whining about how old the team is, then in the next breath saying we need some veteran pitching to fill out the starting rotation. Stratton and Blach have proved they can handle themselves. Beede is close enough to be the 6th man after a bit more AAA seasoning. I love the Ajax signing because he was brought on to be a major league 4th outfielder who mashes LHP. If Dyson is signed then we delay Duggar in CF. Let’s see what Duggar can do.
I’d give them a solid B for the semester so far, definitely a more competitive team this year potentially vying with the D’Backs and the Rockies for a wildcard spot.
My own Dodgers front office earns a D+, and that’s grading on a generous curve.
Thank you for being a level headed dodger fan and not posting the same useless thing everyone else posts like “they’ll still suck” or “they’re old” or “they would have won the World Series in 2013”. Respect.
Likewise.
So, can I go crazy now? 😉
Giants and rays seem to be on the same track. Rays are wanting to do a Astros 1.0 and finish last for several years in a row grabbing top 10 prospects. The Giants should clean out what’s left of their farm system and grab Archer and Colome. Fits perfectly with the Giants Win now philosophy.
Personally I see the same thing I saw going into last season. An aging roster that is likely to be sellers at the deadline which has no hope of youth to save it. I still think this is a .500 at best team. If they signed a real CF it might save things somewhat I guess.
The rotation doesn’t’ look great, the bullpen isn’t great and I don’t see that as an above average lineup. The defense is still suspect in the OF.
At least they are trying to improve so that is a good thing but I think they could have improved more just by signing a few guys instead of trading for guys in clear decline. I gave them a D.
Actually, Giants roster has gotten younger.
How exactly has the Giants roster gotten younger by adding 3 potential 30-plus year old players to their starting lineup, that is if Austin Jackson gets the majority of the starting nods in CF.
I’d be shocked if the Giants don’t have the oldest average starting lineup in baseball come opening day.
C – Buster Posey – 31
1B – Brandon Belt – 29 (Turns 30 on April 20th)
2B – Joe Panik – 27
3B – Evan Longoria – 32
SS – Brandon Crawford – 31
LF – Andrew McCutchen – 31
CF – Austin Jackson – 31
RF – Hunter Pence – 34 (Turns 35 on April 13th)
If everyone stays healthy that is an extremely solid lineup from top to bottom. I just don’t recall ever seeing a starting lineup like that where 7 of the 8 everyday regulars will be 30 plus years old.
I guess they’ve gotten younger since they won’t have Mike Morse (35 – 24 games), Aaron Hill (35 – 34 games), Justin Ruggiano (35 – 19 games), Drew Stubbs (32 – 10 games) on their roster anymore. Not exactly guys that had much impact one way or the other on the 2017 team.
BTW, just so you know that I’m not honestly trying to be a hater, the Giants, if everyone stays healthy, could be very good in 2018 and be in the playoffs. But that’s a major if since with age comes an increased chance at injury.
Slater is going to platooning in left, 25. I have no doubt Duggar will platooning in center, 24. Stratton and Suarez are both younger then Cain and Moore. They will be adding two guys to the Bullpen that are around 23. Sure, age slows down recovery time. But 31 is not exactly the age where should be making funeral plans. Most free agents of any value don’t hit the market until they are 31. Fangraphs crunched the numbers and found that the average age of decline starts at 34. Last year, the Astro’s opening day roster was older then the Giants.
Doesn’t’ mean it isn’t an aging roster. Not sure what you are trying to say. Most of the team is on the wrong side of their prime at this point. And to all the people saying last year was just injuries at play, they went 30-42 in the 2nd half of 2016 as well. This team got old before our eyes late in 2016, it continued into 2017 and I don’t see much that is going to change in 2018.
They are 46 games under .500 over their past 234 games now. This reminds me so much of the Phillies a few years back, just kept signing aging guys trying to keep their window open and suddenly found themselves terrible for 4+ seasons.
The Bullpen totally collapsed after the All Star break in 2016, prior to that the Giants had the best record in all of baseball. They went out and got two solid arms in Smith and Melancon, Smith went down in Spring training with TJ, and Melancon tried to pitch through injury and sucked immensely because of it. They are both expected to be 100%. Can’t wait for the season to start!
2017 they had a lot of fluke injuries. And they got of the guys who were showing signs of aging.
KOut of 30 MLB teams this off-season the Giants have been involved in nearly every big move .. With 15 teams below 150mm 7 teams below 100mm complaining of what I still can not figure out when taking 60% of the pie. There are still 150 free agents scratching there head with 3 weeks to go. These writers and analysts taking every chance they can to take a stab at the only team actively trying to get back to where they have been 3 times this decade. I’ve never read so many articles complain about a team trying to get better. Oh they traded for a gold glove 3rd basemen and gave up some prospects why would anyone do that oh they traded for a former MVP why would they do that oh they signed a veteran 4th outfielder why would they do that. Really rediculous this team who performed so poorly last year would even try to improve don’t they understand it would be better for baseball if the Giants would stop trying like the majority teams and stop making the truly bad teams look bad for not trying. 22 teams under 150mm, 150 free agents, you call yourself baseball writers and analysts and the rest of you call yourself baseball fans. At least our team who has won 3 World SERIES this decade and have openly admitted how ashamed they are for there poor performance and clearly they are trying to make amends by putting a product out there we can be proud of.
Right on mbbslam, it seems like the Giants could sign Othani and Kershaw and someone would say something negative about it. For those spoiled fans who’ve had the opportunity to root for a team with three World Series wins, just go back 20 to 30 years and know the frustrations of following a losing team in a horrible ballpark while patiently waiting for something, anything to bring us a winning team. This decade the Giants front office is always in the hunt and they’ve won when nobody though they would. Whatever way we go this year I can say that MY team made some great moves and have a good chance of being in the playoffs. That’s good enough for me.