The recent string of subtractions by the Rays — Jake Odorizzi, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza have all been moved in the past five days — has fans of other clubs hoping for a full rebuild and, thus, trades of Chris Archer, Alex Colome and/or Kevin Kiermaier. However, Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander and senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom both strongly suggested that such moves are unlikely tonight in separate interviews. (Neander spoke with with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, while Bloom’s chat with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM can be heard on Twitter.)
Tonight’s trade of Souza was a tough one for Rays faithful to absorb, given the amount of payroll that previous moves involving Evan Longoria, Odorizzi and Dickerson had already saved and given Souza’s modest $3.55MM salary. However, Bloom suggested that the trade of Souza had far less to do with cutting payroll than it did with the fact that the D-backs aggressively pursued Souza as a fallback after losing J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox. (Tampa Bay received MLB-ready left-hander Anthony Banda, second base prospect Nick Solak and a pair of players to be named later who, according to ESPN’s Keith Law, are “more than just throw-ins,” though their identities are not yet known.)
“We feel this move, just the way the Diamondbacks came after Steven, that it was something that we couldn’t walk past,” said Bloom before going on to suggest that the Rays may now add some pieces. “And knowing that it does take a chunk out of our lineup, we still feel good about the talent we have on hand. … We want to spend the rest of the spring looking for ways we can support this group, knowing that we’re going to be young, we’re going to be interesting and we want to give this group as much of a chance as possible to succeed.”
Neander had similar sentiments, calling the Souza trade a “pure baseball decision” based on a package “we felt we couldn’t pass up.” Bloom, in his interview, repeatedly speaks about supporting the group of core pieces already on the roster (e.g. Archer, Kiermaier) as well as the emerging wave of talent that is on the cusp of the Majors. (While Bloom doesn’t specify names, the Rays could very well see right-hander Brent Honeywell join a largely homegrown rotation this season and also have position players such as Willy Adames and Jake Bauers on the cusp of the Majors.) To that end, he flatly denied any plans of moving further core pieces.
“As far as Archer and Colome, that’s not our plan,” said Bloom when asked by Bowden about that pair specifically. “…We recognize, again, that we’re in a little bit of a transition phase as we focus on building up that young core, but we don’t want to ignore that we have a pretty dynamic group.” Neander’s message was the same.
“I would say extremely unlikely,” said the GM when asked about further tearing down the club (via Topkin). “Our focus at this point is we’d like to add a little bit. We’re not looking to pull this thing back.”
Neander went on to state that there’s “work to do” when it comes to finding a replacement from Souza, which seems likely to come from outside the organization. As Topkin points out, the Rays currently project to have an all-left-handed-hitting outfield of Denard Span, Kiermaier and Mallex Smith. Generally speaking, the team has a fairly obvious need for right-handed offense after trading Longoria and Souza and, thus far, adding only C.J. Cron as a right-handed bat this offseason.
As always, there are multiple avenues for the Rays to explore when determining how to address that need. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with options, though Carlos Gomez remains available and is still capable of holding down a regular role in the outfield. A roll of the dice on a veteran like Jose Bautista may not excite many fans, though it’d come at a minimal cost given his recent struggles. The trade market would present further options, with Milwaukee’s Domingo Santana standing out as a particularly logical name to pursue given Milwaukee’s outfield surplus and desire for controllable starters. (To be clear, all of those names are merely speculative to this point.)
More broadly, while neither Neander nor Bloom proclaimed themselves definitive contenders for the division, both expressed a belief that the Rays, with some (presumably modestly priced) additions around the periphery of the roster can be a largely competitive unit in 2018. Bloom acknowledged that the Rays aren’t yet among the “upper-echelon” teams in the American League but voiced a desire to get there and optimism about being able to do so with a number of the young pieces that’re already in the organization.
“With respect to the quality of our pitching and the quality of our defense, we’re going to be competitive,” Neander added.
will they win a single game this year?
Who will notice??
I’ll notice.
Thanks for speaking up. Getting tired of the constant Rays fan bashing. Owner won’t or can’t spend…we take the heat.
Rays fans…I feel your pain. (Pirate fan here).
Being a White Sox fan I’m just grateful they didn’t move there.
Why the heck not tear it down all the way let Archer pitch for a purpose. Brewers are gonna get him. Who’s left Colome & Archer? DFA ing Dickerson made no sense other than to wave the white flag for 2018 & dump salary like Miami
They could always wait till trade deadline you tend to get more a la Quintana last year.
Yeah waiting until the deadline could give the Rays better options. However, both KK and Archer have team friendly long term deals. The Rays have great minor league depth so maybe in a couple years they’ll be competitive and still have KK and Archer as their veterans.
The Rays value Archer and KK way too high. They won’t get what they ask for.. On top of that, they will most likely get the same value now as next off season so what’s the point?
Well, they do play the Marlins six times.
And both fan bases can stop by Arby’s together after the game.
“We respect the quality of our pitching and quality of our defense, we’re going to be competitive”…….LOL
We have the most frustrating front office I swear.
But at least they produce positive results. I’d hate to be a Pirates fan.
Actually, you’d fit in well with most Pirate “fans”. They hate every single thing about it, too.
But, what metrics are you using?
When was the last time TB won 98 games? Made the playoffs in 3 straight years? Made a trade as good as Melancon for Rivero (Trea Turner not included for obvious reasons)?
Saying that Pirate fans have it better than Rays fans is damning with faint praise. 🙂
Love the name! However, I cannot say the same about your post. If we are looking at the recent past, when is the last time the Pirates won a pennant? The Rays did in 2008. The Pirates made the playoffs three straight years. The Rays made it 4 out of 5 years: 2008 to 2013 – doing so with a lower annual attendance (and TV deal) and payroll. In 2008 and 2010 we won 97 and 96 games respectively and we did so in the AL East. Do you think Chris Archer is a good pitcher? We got him in a trade with the Cubs for Matt Garza. I think Rivero has the potential to be a great closer, and the Pirates have made some very good moves and some very bad ones (Tabata extension sticks out most to me), but so have the Rays, and so have pretty much every other team.
Its hard to be a fan of either team, and I think Neal Huntington is a great GM. However, given the budgets of the two teams, and the history of the Rays making things happen out of nothing, I think it’s easier (just barely) to be a fan of/trust in the Rays than the Pirates, but that is debatable. What is not, however, is overlooking the previous successes of the Rays as you did in your post.
I wasn’t overlooking the Rays so much as pointing out the lack of daylight between the two (three actually, the Pirates, Rays and A’s all follow the same formula) after he overlooked the Pirates.
I think what Silverman did there was brilliant. I think what Huntingdon did here is amazing.
But I don’t have all that much pity for fans of either team who want to ignore reality and wish they were run like the Yanks or Cubs. Just not how it is.
Being a fan of one of these teams means accepting the David vs. Goliath nature of small market vs. large market baseball.
I can watch the Penguins or Steelers if I want to see a level playing field…one where Pittsburgh teams can thrive because of good managment while NY teams stagnate and their wealth can’t buy their way out of it.
The grand problem is what the ridiculous financial system in baseball forces a good portion of GMs to do in order to try and build a team. The league is supposedly so overwhelmed with profit as a whole but there’s still a significant portion of the league that simply can’t afford to have so much as one FA signing fail without screwing the franchise over.
As an owner/GM you can’t blame baseball’s economic system because your team does not generate enough revenues to pay marquee free agents. The Rays generate significantly less revenue than the Dodgers, but Stuart Sternberg also paid significantly less for his franchise than Mark Walters did. If Sternberg put the Rays up for sale today, as is, he’d probably get $750M…if Steinbrenner put the Yankees up for sale he’d probably get $4B. Now the person that buys the Rays for $750M should not be able to spend the same amount on payroll as the person who spends $4B on the Yankees. That would just be idiotic.
Teams generate more revenue because they have fans who will pay that price for the product. Some teams have a bigger revenue base and others do not.
Football is an entirely different system, and while it does have some advantages it’s not entirely perfect. There’s much more parity and sustainability in baseball than in football. And the argument about football teams sharing revenues is fair, but it also impacts their franchise values, so there isn’t going to be any team that sells for 4 times what another team will sell for.
It’s just business, and for the most part it works in baseball.
In others words, for the right names Archer could be a Yankee
No chance Rays trade archer in the division. Let alone to the Yankees unless they pay even more of a premium.
For Frazier and Torres they would.
Frazier has fallen off as an “elite” prospect. It would take more than those two.
What are you talking about? Have you seen the trades this year? Rays would be crazy to say no to Torres let alone Frazier as well.
There’s no way they trade Archer for Frazier and Torres. Archer is unlike any of the guys they already trade, he has 10 times more value.
What difference does it make whether they trade hi in-division or not? It’s not like they are actually trying to win the division. If the prospects are the ones they want, they will trade him in division.
You would not trade an ace with 5 years of control inside the division. That would be like the brewers trading Yelich to the cards because they liked the package. I would hope the rays assume they will be competitive again in the next 2-4 years. Adding to the Yankees would hurt them later on.
Angelos? Is that you?
Then again, you don’t get rid of your four best offensive players with small returns…yet somehow keep Span and Miller. This FO is irrational at best, flatly stupid at worst.
I’m sorry,
I understand and support rebuilding but what this front office has done this offseason is just insane. They give up Boxberger and Odorizzi for low level prospects, DFA their 2018 all-star, gave up Whitley on waivers, like what gives.
At least they received a good prospect in Solak for Souza, and Arroyo for Longo, but there’s no excuse for those other moves. You could argue Whitley, but he was actally pretty solid and was coming off injury.
Exactly. You claim you expect to be competitive but yet you trade guys for penny on the dollar. A team looking doesn’t DFA Dickerson, trade their face and Odorizzi for literally nothing. I understand waiting on Archer but why hold Kevin or Colome?
Meander on over to Fangraphs and see how awful the Rays were the 2nd half of the season. Longo, Morrison, Souza and Dickerson were good for less than 3 WAR between all 4 of them. Who says the kids won’t be better.
You make a good point, however, the thing with Dickerson is that he’s slated to earn under $6,000,000 next year a season following an all-star nod, which followed multiple seasons of above average offensive production. Furthermore, he is under team control for two more seasons. At $6m, Dickerson would need to be worth just 0.75 wins above replacement to be “worth it.” Even if you want to cut that standard theory in half for the Rays and their low budget (say $4m/WAR) then Dickerson would only need to be worth just 1.5, which he has done in every season in which he has played over 100 games.
I agree with you that the return was certainly worth the deals of Longo and Souza, however, while Lomo didn’t maintain his blistering .900 OPS production of May and June, he was still exceptionally serviceable.
” At $6m, Dickerson would need to be worth just 0.75 wins above replacement to be “worth it.””
Can we please stop with the idea that 1 WAR is equal to $8M or $9M; it’s just silly. It’s the same argument that was somehow created a while back that a “Quality Start” was 6 innings and 3 earned runs (a 4.50 ERA, btw). The QS was likely an agent-created stat used specifically to drive up salaries of mediocre pitchers, which in turn created an entire new market for starters and relievers. Nowadays people seem to think it’s okay to pay $20M+ for a guy who pitches 5 innings.
Now, back to the WAR is worth $8M or $9M. How could that be possible? Look at team payrolls and their combined WAR, and what their payroll WOULD be if that was true…
Rays: 31.8WAR, payroll SHOULD be $254.4M, when it really is only $70M. Instead of saying that Dickerson would be worth his $6M salary even if he produced .75WAR is wrong. The Rays payroll at $70M makes WAR worth $2.2M/year, not $8. If Dickerson repeats his 2.7 war performance from last year he’s worth, to the Rays, just shy of $6M, meaning he negatively impacts the team from a financial standpoint.
Other teams that I looked at (randomly)
Dodgers: WAR: 50.4, Projected Payroll: $403.2/M Actual: $241 $4.78M/WAR
Mariners: WAR: 34.5, Projected Payroll: $276/M Actual $154M $4.46M/WAR
A’s: WAR 30, Projected Payroll: $240M, Actual: $81M,
$2.7M/WAR
Phillies: WAR: 31.4, Projected Payroll: $251.2, Actual: 100,
$3.18M/WAR
Brewers: WAR 33.6, Projected Payroll: $268.8M/ Actual $63M, $1.9M/WAR
No team is basing their payroll budges on what WAR is worth, and certainly not at $8M/$9M per 1 WAR. Costs would skyrocket. And while it’s not a perfect calculation, 1 WIN corresponds to about 2.5 WAR, so if we’re basing WAR on wins, and then wins on payroll, WAR should be worth about 3.4M per 1 WAR, not $8M.
this was nicely done. i like WAR and all but this does put it into perspective.
.75 WAR is not “worth” $6MM – especially not to a team like the Rays. No team can afford to pay $8MM/WAR for all their players.
That said, Dickerson is a decent hitter – 113 OPS+ in TBR. But the fact that they have not yet been able to find a taker for him indicates that perhaps he’s not viewed as favorably around MLB as his statistics would indicate he should be – and his defensive metrics are not positive.
The fact that they haven’t been able to move him makes one wonder if it was just the money.
Yes, it is very possible that the Rays can upgrade at each position that they traded away from AND at less payroll, but extremely few are paying attention to that fact. Many fans seem to forget that at this point no one knows what is likely to be the return for Dickerson, nor who the two PTBNL will be. People seem to just be knocking the recent moves because Tampa doesn’t act like a big market club and guys like Longoria, Odorrizzi and Dickerson have name recognition.
But they wont play the kids. They will keep them in the minors too long, then get rid of them when they earn crazy arb salaries like $3.5 million. If they brought Adames, Bauers, Honeywell et al up now I would accept it, but they wont. Opening day will peob have Span and Miller in lineup, and that is a joke.
They won’t be terrible. Their pitching and defense look good. Can they hit? I can see them being better than the Orioles and outside chance the Blue Jay’s.
Trade Archer to the Brewers with Santana included in the deal, maybe even Phillips as well as a replacement if they decide to deal their cf for a haul as well.
I would say Archer is probably the most valuable player on the market at this point, and would require a kings ransom.
Four years of Domingo Santana certainly brings value. He’s a plus bat with 30 home run power, surprising speed and great plate discipline, however acquiring Chris Archer is acquiring four years of a cost controlled ace. While the BL #’s may not have looked it, the peripherals certainly do.
I would imagine that a more realistic package (or at least in my opinion, not fact) would look like this
Domingo Santana, a can’t miss prospect in Brett Phillips, a high upside lotto pick like Caden Lemons and a kicker who is either a lottery ticket who’s far away (like Demi) or a low risk blocked major leaguer like Aguilar.
Archer is NOT an Ace… Lol
And nobody wants Santana.
It’s that pesky K%, dontcha know.
Ooh for a math teacher you’re a little light on the Brewers side of that equation…
I can buy the narrative on this trade but they sold low on guys over the weekend.
feel like the DBacks gave up a TON for Souza, no? What’s goin on here? I think the Rays’ return for Odorizzi was surprisingly weak but this Souza deal more than compensates for it.
I don’t think it compensates, but I’m fine with the Souza trade. This offseason was more about poking fans in their eyes with a sharp stick than it was about saving money or building for the future.
Guys I’m here every single day several times a day and i have no idea where Dickerson was moved to. Can somebody help me out?
Nowhere. The dfa’d him
Had the same reaction. Double-checked and he’s still technically with the Rays organization, pending the outcome of his DFA (10-day limbo period from 2/17). In theory, TB could add him back to its roster (there’s now room on its 40-man roster), but practical as that may seem (particularly after subtracting Souza’s $3.55M salary), it appears unlikely given TB’s decision-making process.
Looking at TB’s depth chart and 40-man roster, its OF picture seems unfinished at this point. After Kiermaier in CF, Span slots in as part of a platoon in LF. The same could hold true for Mallex Smith in RF, unless TB gives him an everyday corner OF role. Even then, TB would still need a platoon partner for Span and otherwise has limited MLB OF depth. This assumes TB keeps Jake Bauers (another LHB) in the Minors for a while to delay his arbitration clock.
They tendered contracts to Brad Miller AND Hechavarria that total around 10 million. That makes zero sense. That’s basically what they saved trading Odorizzi & Dickerson. Odorizzi & Dickerson are far better than Miller & Hechavarria. A rebuild is fine and now needed, but this offseason is just a tear down plain & simple. Future value is very much a secondary concern for them obviously.
They are doing the worst thing a rebuilding team can do…. moving all the middle prospects for question marks, and keeping the top players for eventual walks, injuries or drop offs.
They don’t plan to compete and Archer/colome are at peak value. Why keep them and risk something like TJ (Archer is a workhorse) or collapse (Collome has been great, but there are plenty of closers who only had two good years).
They will be terrible, miss out on a wealth of prospects and do this again in five years.
As much as I hate to say it as a Twins fan. The white sox did it right. Surprisingly shipped off young guys, then bam fire sale, but they gutted the team and made out with one of the best farms in baseball. Nats would have never given Giolito for Eaton at this point.
I agree the white Sox managed to maximize value on a bunch of their guys, a great farm is one that produces MLB quality players. They got solid prospects, but until those prospects destroy the minors and have any form of success in the majors, the sox have a hype farm. Trade and free agent markets fluctuate and change daily, and the sox have held on to a few guys they should of tried to move. They are walking a good line between putting a semi competent team on the field and building future value.
Agreed. I pointed out a clear win with Giolito. Unless he hits TJ, or Eaton continues to turn into more of a D. Span 2.0 we won’t know. They are just a better example of giving up a good part of your future for a possible franchise player.
Again I hope all the sox prospect bust. Not get hurt though. I am not that cruel. Just humiliating performance.
No rush. I’m a patient fan. It’s usually in years like this that the Rays surprise people with an 80-win season. Establishment of a permanent home is more important than winning right now.
I don’t really believe him. It keeps the price up, having in-demand pieces that “they don’t really want to trade.” But they can’t honestly believe they’ll be full contenders within the next few years.
MLB should go back to the original 16 teams and create a AAAA minor league with the rest. There just isn’t enough MLB talent to go around. The “Golden Age” of MLB was 1947 until the very early ‘70’s. When batters who hit.240 are considered stars, against mediocre pitchers, the game has a real problem.
I am not sure Florida can support one, let alone two, major league teams.
Sure Florida has far more than enough population and finances to support two major league teams, but the problem isn’t Florida itself. There are multiple issues through the years including the location (and conditions) of the ballparks themselves, the perception of poor management of the teams, and the transient nature of a good portion of Florida’s population (having moved there from other places without necessarily an attachment to the local major league team). There is also a huge amount of competition for any dollar spent on entertainment (in other words so many other things to spend your leisure money on).
Personally I think that Tampa has for years been one of the better run franchises, but it would have been much better served if instead of being in the AL East it was in a “South” division with Miami, Atlanta, Houston and Texas.
I think MLB should look at realignment to make shorter travel time and more geographical rivalries. It would good for player’s and the local fan base.
Am I the only one surprised that Archer isn’t playing the Yelich/Realmuto card and screaming for a trade? I think that speaks to character and would make me want to acquire him even more.
Archer probably still thinks the rays will be competing for a title and his 19L’s a couple years back was a good thing.
Rays are trading Archer and Robertson to the Brewers for Hader,Woodruff,Santana and Hiura per my source
I would be ok with that trade.
I would be shocked if your source was close to correct. I could see Santana and Woodruff as part of an offer but doubt that Hader would be part of any deal. Also doubt Hiura. Brewers should sign FA starter or trade with KC. If not, we’ll have to depend on winning games by a score of 12-11.
Looks to me like they are saving money for a stadium in Ybor, while also knowing they weren’t really going to compete with what Boston and New York have going on at the moment. This was the opportune time to save a buck and wait it out until those teams fall apart some.
How about a roll of the dice and sign Joey Bats for RF as part of a platoon for say…..3mil….to prove the Souza trade was not about saving $$$ as they claim.
AJ and the Padres make this happen: Archer and Kiermaier from the Rays for Renfroe, Jankowski, Gale, Lloyd, Naylor and Almanizar
That’s not even close. Not even close.
Agreed, Not even remotely close
anybody know what Cardinals offer was for Archer (couple months ago)?
Dickerson will be in a starting lineup on a mlb team. Good hitter. Wish the best for him.
Will players who start their career with the Rays think about not signing extensions with them anymore since the Rays will win in the long run. Archer at this moment should not have signed an early extension as he could have been a free agent sooner. Now Archer career is in the hands of the Rays.
I still like the Rays as a team.
The Rays always have good prospects which make it to the mlb.
The business part of baseball is where the Rays are good at from what it seems. Keep one player towards upwards of 3 serviceable years then trade them off for multiple players.
Not much left to tear down, and that includes the fans’ faith in this FO.
Start cheating for the Brewers
Once again the Rays are showing the right way to try to build up and become a contender in a couple of years, They did it before and made it to the World Series..
Small market teams cannot take shots with Ellsbury, Big Panda, Price and Hanley contracts and survive. Both Florida teams are doing it the right way!!!!