The Padres’ signing of Eric Hosmer “is the most inexplicable move of the offseason,” Keith Law of ESPN opines (Insider required). Despite only bidding against the Royals for Hosmer, the Padres significantly overpaid for Hosmer in handing him an eight-year, $144MM guarantee, writes Law, who doesn’t expect the player to justify the cost. Hosmer has endured an inconsistent career, hasn’t lived up to the considerable hype he had as a prospect, and isn’t enough of an impact player to help turn around the Padres’ fortunes, Law contends. Further, adding Hosmer and bumping Wil Myers from first back to the outfield is unlikely to benefit the latter, who “will probably become an adequate-not-good player” in the grass, as opposed to the “good-not-great player” he was at first base, Law offers. While Law is bullish on the Padres’ overall direction, he regards this signing as a “baffling misstep” by their front office.
More from the majors’ West divisions:
- The Rockies have continued to keep in touch with Scott Boras in regards to free agent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, general manager Jeff Bridich told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sunday (Twitter link). Ian Desmond, Gerardo Parra and David Dahl rank as the Rockies’ most prominent corner outfielders at the moment, but all three come with question marks. Desmond was subpar last year, Parra is out several weeks after undergoing hand surgery (and hasn’t been particularly good as a Rockie) and Dahl didn’t play in the majors at all in 2017 on account of a rib cage injury. Meanwhile, Gonzalez posted the worst season of his career – which helps explain why he’s still available – though he went on a tear in September (.377/.484/.766 in 93 plate appearances) to end on a high note.
- Injuries tore through the Mariners’ rotation last season, and their starting depth is already being put to the test early this year. Right-hander Erasmo Ramirez has been shut down for two weeks with a minor lat strain, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times was among those to report (Twitter links). It’s only a precautionary measure by the Mariners, according to Divish, though it obviously makes for a less-than-ideal start to the year for their staff. The Mariners haven’t done anything to upgrade their rotation since last season concluded, but GM Jerry Dipoto has insisted he’s content with the group. If healthy, Ramirez will slot in fourth in the quintet in front of either Marco Gonzales or Ariel Miranda and behind James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Mike Leake. Ramirez made 19 starts with the Mariners and Rays last year and pitched to a 4.74 ERA/4.71 FIP across that 100 2/3-inning span.
- Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin was featured in trade rumors over the winter, but no deal has materialized to this point. Corbin’s “glad” to still be with the team, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. One reason the D-backs didn’t pull the trigger on a trade is because they were concerned about finding an adequate replacement, Piecoro notes. Corbin was a key part of their staff last year, when he totaled 3.0 fWAR and recorded a 4.03 ERA in 189 2/3 innings.
- The friendship relievers Mark Melancon and Tony Watson forged during their time together in Pittsburgh from 2013-16 helped the Giants land Watson, Kerry Crowley of the Mercury News writes. Melancon explained Saturday that he had been trying to recruit Watson since last fall, saying: “I think I did, I’ve been pitching at him for the entire offseason and even prior to that. When he was in LA, I was like, ‘We need you over here now.’ So since September of last year I think.” Now that he’s teammates again with Watson, Melancon “couldn’t be more ecstatic.”
I wonder if the Rockies have any interest in having corey dickerson back in the fold?
Reason why Rays won’t win. They don’t want to have a payroll. The cubs needed a little fa help. Two years later after jon lester and ws win. All teams close to the close of a rebuild need to spend money
Terrible move by the Padres. A team that doesn’t spend money and somewhat rebuilding makes no sense. Padres, Tampa, Miami, and a few other teams should be contracted. Such a waste for MLB.
Somewhat rebuilding? They have been time to start getting pieces in place
Sure it was a little pricy, but they were weak at first base in the farm
Of course they don’t have much at 1B in the minors. They had committed to Myers, and had no need to prioritize the position. That was still the case when they signed Hosmer.
Myers was an outfielder
The only one moving up in the minor with a future in baseball better fits as a dh
Is SD the only team that doesn’t just stick a bat-first position player that doesn’t work out at every other position?
And Buster Posey was a SS. Myers has played only 54 games in the OF since joining the Padres in 2015, none at all last season. He wasn’t exactly a defensive whiz when he played the OF either. For his career he has a -16 DRS, and a -4.7 UZR/150.
They will trade Myers now
Myers’ contract is heavily backloaded (4.5m in 2018, 5.5m in 2019, 22.5m/season 2020-2022, then $20m team option in 2023 with $1m buyout).
As he is still yet to be a breakout star, it might be tough to move him unless the padres provide salary help in some way, or take on a bad contract from another team.
LOL what? Posey was a SS? Posey never played a single inning at SS in the minors. Myers was drafted as an OF and came up in the minors as an OF. You’re comparing 2 completely different situations.
wrong, myers was drafted as a catcher and moved to the outfield because his bat was further advanced
Yes because he was playing center. If you’re going to lay down facts, lay down all the facts
Myers was drafted as a catcher and played his first 2 seasons as a pro at catcher.
You got that backwards. Myers was moved to 1B because they had no one in the minors that could fill the position and they had a glut of really good OF prospects coming. Margot, Renfroe, Dickerson, Jankowski and Cordero were expected to be the future for the Pads in the OF. Pirela was a nice surprise in the OF too. The short term and long term need was at 1B, not OF.
Posey played 65 games at SS at Florida State. Just because someone has played a position doesn’t mean they are any good at it, which was my point.
“Myers was moved to 1B because they had no one in the minors that could fill the position and they had a glut of really good OF prospects coming.”
In other words, he was the first choice to play 1B, because he was the worst defender, as his defensive metrics show.
Padres still paying 10 million to WSox for sp shields contract, this is their last year of paying
Not going to argue with you about defensive metrics for 1B because they are just not relevant. None of them include throws to 1B, just balls hit and full time 1B take 1000 or more throws than balls hit in their direction. Hosmer is the very best at catching that ball.
Myers was a league average defender in LF and RF. He was horrendous in CF. If you are going to spout stats, at least talk about the relevant ones. CF is not relevant since Myers will be playing LF.
Myers isn’t going anywhere. There’s no team out there that will pay him 22.5/year right now. He came off a below average season. If he rebuilds his value and puts up a year like he did in ‘16 then maybe they can move him. He has very little trade value right now.
His overall OF stats are more relevant than his LF stats. The sample is far too small. What he did in 35 2/3 innings isn’t indicative of anything. Yeah, he was horrible in CF which is different, but he was horrible in RF as well, and he played 1,328 1/3 innings there, If you’re going to take exception to quoted stats, maybe have that exception be relevant.
Buster Posey.’s given name is Gerald. If you’re going to lay down facts, lay down all the facts.
A little pricey? No it was a significant overpay.
Weak at first base? I am not even sure this is an upgrade at 1b. Wil Meyers was a good first baseman and good is the best you will get from Hosmer
Padres don’t spend money? They spent over $80M on the draft and international free agency in 2016 alone. In the past 2 years they have committed over $80M to Myers and now over $140M to Hosmer, both team records in financial commitments at the time.
You’re really dense to put the Padres in the same boat as the Marlins and Rays. This is a questionable move, yes. The ownership is trying. They tried a few years back with their splash in free agency which didn’t work. They regrouped and now have a top farm system. Perhaps they are now trying to hasten the rebuilding process. Whatever the case, they are drawing a good fan base and have an exceptional stadium. In a few years when they have a robust line-up and pitching rotation you will be eating your words. This coming from a lifelong Padre fan who knows mostly heartache with no hope of competing year after year. Current ownership has given the fan base a reason to have hope. They have a plan that they have been following. I’m hoping the Hosmer signing works out but if it doesn’t the team still has a promising future if they stay the course.
Without accounting for inflation, if he puts up 18 WAR over 8 years, the money is market rate.
He put up 14 WAR over the first 7 years of his career. Very well could be an overpay, but not as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be.
“…could be an overpay, but not as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be.”
But that’s the gamble their making. Why make that big a gamble on what could be an overpay for a position that was not one of need? And at the same time forcing a move with a negative impact defensively by putting Myers in the OF. People are commenting negatively,because of the seemingly unnecessary need to gamble on a contract that big.
EVERY.SINGLE.CONTRACT.IS.A.GAMBLE.
not minor league contracts and minimum deals.
“EVERY.SINGLE.CONTRACT.IS.A.GAMBLE.”
No need to shout. I agree, but your implication is all gambles are equal. They’re not. My point was that IMO this is a bigger gamble that was not warranted by the circumstances.
NO.THEY.ARE.NOT
players usually accumulate more WAR up to 28 than they do after 28. You’re conveniently forgetting that portion of the equation.
Three things: (1) Do you have an authority for that proposition; (2) this will be his age 28 season; and (3) except for the following players who, according to BBREF, most profile like Hosmer through the same age: Eddie Murray (32.3 v. 36); John Olerud (22.4 v. 35.6); Keith Hernandez (28.6 v. 31.4).
link to beyondtheboxscore.com
BB-Ref lists 141 players in the past 17 seasons that have put up more WAR from age 28-41 than from 19-27.
Even assuming only 25 players per team, the minimum number of players each year is 750. Even if all 750 of them had a full 17 year career over the last 17 years, 141 players is only 19%. That from an extremely conservative estimate. The actual number is undoubtedly smaller, so the statement that .”players usually accumulate more WAR up to 28 than they do after 28″ is correct.
According to Fangraphs there have been 3947 different position players this century that were 27 and under. There were 2957 different players that were 28 and over.
What did those players produce?
4393.1 WAR for players 27 and under.
link to fangraphs.com
5864.9 WAR for players 28 and over
link to fangraphs.com
Selection bias. The ones who were better were the ones still left later into their careers. Also the steroid era affected all of that. But, padres fans can hope!
Tad, homers don’t care about math or reasoning.
He shows you the facts from both sources and you still don’t want to accept it? LMAO. I want some of what you are smoking.
chester – stop trying to confuse people with facts.
It figures that you would want steroids influencing the data ignored.
Who’s your team ?
i bet the orioles since they weren’t included on the list
The Padres had a $70 million payroll before adding Hosmer and a cap of $125-130 million according to the owners. After 2018 they wont be paying $11 million a year for Shields and the $19.83 million for Headley and Galvis is off the books. After 2019 $12.5 million for Gyorko and Olivera come off the books too. The Padres have money to spend.
I just can’t wrap my head around why law hates the hosmer signing so much. I’m not the biggest fan of the guy, but he’s just now entering the prime of his career. Yeah it’s a gamble to sign him to hit like 2017 but if he does that’s a solid price for years to come.
Because he’s not good. He’s a below average first base bat with an average glove.
I cannot wait for you to eat your words either
so how long are you prepared to wait?
until the ceral gets soggy
Thats funny.
I just can’t agree with that. He’s still young. His last 3 years he’s probably averaging over a .290 BA with 22-25 homers and an ~.820 ops? Again not great but the contract dollars aren’t real high. 21 million a year (his average up to his opt out) isn’t crazy high. Plus, again, with his age it’s likely we may just now see him hitting like he will the next 4 years. If you can get 25 homers and a .300 BA out of him he’s worth the 21 mil easy.
It’s not “crazy high”, but it’s also a position that isn’t hard to fill, one they don’t really NEED to fill, and one that you can fill without an 8 (or 5) year commitment.
An ops of 820 would have ranked as the 19th best first basemen last year. You don’t need to pay 20m a year for that.
Over the last 3 years Hosmer is 12th in fWAR and 12th in OPS among first basemen.
Below average? That’s just objectively untrue.
4.0 WAR is 2 WAR better than average starting position player and he is just entering his prime now. 4 Gold Gloves means he is pretty good in the eyes of people who watch lots of games. You don’t actually watch the games do you? You just come on the boards to argue about things you don’t understand. guess everyone needs an outlet.
Why do all you SDP homers ignore the fact that he only put up 4 WAR once in his career? Sheesh. That’s similar to someone claiming Ed Brinkman was a 4 WAR player after his 1969 season.
That’s pretty much what people said about Jason Heyward, isn’t it?
Hosmer is better guess that goes without saying
Because Keith Law is a hot-headed, failed scout trying to become the Stephen A. Smith of baseball.
Because Law is an idiot who by his own admission doesn’t actually watch much baseball.
Dont forget Tapia for Rockies. Blackmon hits like a corner outfielder to make it easier on whoever wins that other corner spot
Prolly not. Dahl and Tapia are both promising and if they do something it will be at 1B
I cannot wait for them to eat their words
Giants seriously overpaid for Melancon, but they got Watson for a steal so, they are about even.
Even if both revert to their PIT numbers it’s still a massive overpay. SF missed their chance to unload Melancon on WSH.
Melancons problem is he doesn’t strike guys out as a closer and that doesn’t age well
You got it backwards. Control ages well. Velocity doesn’t.
I never mentioned control. Melancon got hit hard this year because the league is catching up to him. Him not overpowering guys is a big reason behind it
Melancon got hit because he was injured and both his velocity and his command was off.
How many injuries and poor performances will it take for the Mariners to upgrade the rotation?
One. I would be shocked if they seriously felt they could run with Moore or Miranda.
Really?
Sure. Having confidence in Ramirez and Gonzales as your back end is one thing, but Gonzales and Miranda or Moore? Both got hit hard last season and if they use one, they lose emergency depth. They would need to replace the depth, or replace an active starter. Of course it should be the active starter.
That said, I don’t think it changes anything regarding free agent options. I think *if* Ramirez’s situation proves to be more serious, we’ll see a trade. Maybe someone like Ivan Nova would be feasible.
Perfect, another Jerry Dipoto innings eater that most likely won’t eat innings.
Just throwing out an idea. I have no idea who would top his list.
Leake is eating innings. He was very good in Seattle.
People like to jump on the hosmer is overrated bandwagon. But since so many people say that, I think he gets underrated, if that makes sense. He’s a good hitter. He’ll give you some avg, give you some OBP, some slug, HR, RBI etc. he’s not a superstar, but he’s an above average bat who is a smart, competitive player. Overpaid? Yes. Good player to have on a rebuilding but close Padres team? Absolutely
Padres are not close. All of their top guys have yet to play in AAA and a majority have not even reached AA.
Except for Margot, Hedges, Renfroe & Lamet at the MLB level;
Cordero at the AAA level;
and, Quantril, Luchessi, Lauer, Naylor, Urias, and Tatis at the AA level.
Other than that your correct.
That still doesn’t make them close. Having a good farm system and actually being close to winning is 2 different things. They easily have the best farm in the division so when the Giants decline, Dbacks and Rockies lose their key guys in free agency the Padres could come in and compete for a wild card. So thats about 2020.
giants have declined and will continue to. dbacks and rockies lose a lot of guys next year. they are closer to contention than you think
What makes them close is being better at almost every position and in the starting rotation and pen than they were in 2017 when they won 71 games. Over half of the season ending 25 man roster had 1 year or less of major league experience when 2017 started not including the 3 Rule 5 guys. Those kids will get better. They added a 4 win 1B in Hosmer and moved Myers to LF which makes LF better. Galvis is a 4 win improvement. Headley is an improvement at 3B. Spangenberg is better at 2B than Asuaje and than he was at 3B. Urias is better than both of them and he will be called up this season.
Ok, Kenley. I get your bitterness. Your Dodgers just blew a WS game seven at home. That has to be tough, but you should be more concerned about the Dodgers trying to win the division again than trying to justify how long it will be before you have to worry about the Padres.
Pads will be knocking on the door in 2019.
The Padres had 13 guys with one year or less of service time on the 25 man in 2017. The first of our prospects got here last season. More quality prospects are coming in 2018. 8 more in 2019 including 5 starting ptichers. Then we have Baez, Gore, Morejon, Espinoza, Arias, Potts, and several others coming in 2020 and 2021. You really are not well versed in baseball are you?
Hahahaha hold on a second. Your saying the Padres have 8 quality guys who will all become productive big leaugers by 2019 and then 5 more guys and apparently even more after that. You are absolutely delousional. Just pure comedy. Better watch out for those 20 future Padres
Read what I said. Quality prospects, not quality major leaguers. The Padres don’t need 8 quality major leaguers being added to the team a year to be good soon, they already are a .500 team with the addition of Hosmer and the players on the 40 man. With the incredible depth of quality prospects we will have 4-5 a year that are average or better major league players or members of the pen coming for the next 3-4 seasons. I guess comedy is better than the idiocy and lack of knowledge we have seen from you on this thread.
Yeah man your just delousional. Padres are not a .500 team with Hosmer. Your literally saying 4-5 prospects a year will be average or better MLB players. You have no idea how ridiculous that sounds. Its sad because i actually think they can compete in 2020 if things go right for them which is good considering how things have gone for them. You obviously have no idea how many of the top prospects in general bust or don’t amount to the hype
We get it. You don’t understand what is going on and you can’t read very well, but you like to read what you type.
See my complete take on this. The Padres added 10 wins this offseason not including the improvements in their pen and rotation.
Hosmer – 2
Myers in LF – 2
Galvis – 4
Headley – 1
Spangenberg – 1
That doesn’t include improvements from any of the starters with 1 year or less of major league experience like Margot, Renfroe or Hedges.
They won 71 last season. 71 plus 10 is 81. If you don’t know, 81 is .500 ball.
The pen is better. Mitchell projected to be about the same as Chacin. Anyone is better than Weaver and Wood and that guy is probably a combination of Tyson Ross and 3 or 4 other starters. Lamet will be better and so will Perdomo.
.500 team.
Galvis a 4 WAR player? You should go on a comedy tour. Your entire arguments are based on hope and biased projections. No facts. The Padres have no rotation depth and no top of the rotation starters. Their lineup is still the weakest in the division. I will say the bullpen can be decent but they dont have nearly enough to be a .500 team. But its ok you have 20 prospects coming in the next 4 years.
You are obviously drunk so I will cut you some slack. Reading at this comprehension level has to be difficult when you are on your 2nd or 3rd 18 pack of Ice for the day.
I said that Galvis is 4 wins better than the shortstops that the Padres fielded last season. Galvis had 2 WAR last season. He is projected to do a little better than that this season, a 2.2 WAR. The SS the Padres had last season collectively produced a -2.5 WAR. The difference between 2 WAR and -2.5 WAR is 4.5 wins. I rounded down to be conservative in saying Galvis is a 4 win improvement over those SS from last year. Hopefully that is simple enough.
The projections are not mine. They are Fangraphs, BB-Ref, and BP. If you don’t think all those brilliant guys at those publications are all wrong, take it up with them. I will use the Fangraphs projections here instead of the consensus of all the sources to make it easy for you. You will only have to follow one link.
link to fangraphs.com.
The Padres rotation right now is Richard. Lamet. Perdomo, Mitchell, and either Ross, Rea, Strahm, or Erlin. Richard was here last year and other than a small improvement in his ERA that is projected because of the improved defense this coming season, we know what we should expect from him. Lamet and Perdomo are both projected to improve marginally. After watching him pitch in all of his starts, I think Lamet can improve to much better than the 3.92 ERA they are projecting. He was un-hittable at times in his rookie season last year. Mitchell is projected to give us about the same as Chacin, about a 3.80 ERA. If Ross is healthy, we know what he can do. They are projecting him to put up just under a 5 ERA. They have Erlin and Rea at between 4.80 and 4.94 ERA. and Strahm at a 5.16 ERA. We filled that 5th slot with Weaver, Wood, Cosart Lyles, and Diaz last season who put up a cumulative 7.13 ERA in the 182 innings they pitched. A 5 ERA from some combination of Ross, Erlin, Rea and Strahm is a 2.00 ERA improvement over what we saw pitch for us in the 5 slot last season. That is 8 guys competing for 5 jobs and we have not even talked about the prospects like Lockett, Quantrill, Nix, Lauer, Lucchessi, and Kennedy that will all get shots starting at some point this season. The rotation will be better and deeper than last year.
The bullpen has a top 10 closer and 14 guys competing for 7 other spots. That is after we lost Torres to stupidity. Hand, Yates, Maton, Makita, Stammen, Baumann, at least one of the guys who doesn’t take the 5th spot in the rotation, and 8 other competing for that last slot in the pen. The pen is very good and very deep.
We already established that the position players are a 10 win improvement over what the Padres fielded last season without any improvements from Hedges, Margot, or Renfroe or anyone on the bench. The starting rotation is better and deeper. An already very good pen has been improved with the addition of Makita and is very deep. What part of that have you not understood?
Freddy Galvis Bwar has topped out at 1.3. And no Lamanet, Perdomo or whoever they go with to fill out their rotation wont dramatically improve their ERA. Richard is terrible. Perdomo and Mitchell wont just magically improve their era by a lot. ElWhen the Padres finish below .500 again dont go into shock. This team has been pathetic for years now and until they actually prove it on the field your projections are a bunch of garbage
They are still a last place team, sorry bro. Even fangraphs (that same site you linked to supposedly prove your point) has the Padres projected at 73-89 for next season, which actually makes sense.
Their Pythagorean Record last year was 59-103, which tells me they were extremely “lucky” to actually get 71 wins last year and avoid being the worst team in baseball, as usual. Barring some astronomical improvements from just about everyone on the roster, I don’t see the Padres contending anytime soon.
Go ahead and downvote as many times as you like. It won’t change the truth.
Padres have over 15 quality guys on their farm, yes.
Not going to buy he’s underrated. I don’t think it’s a terrible signing, eventually you have to make a big splash and get a guy in who can move you and the young guys forward. 144 million reasons why he isn’t underrated but he doesn’t have to be for the deal to work out.
Seattle is not going to be good.
Hosmer signing makes Zero sense especially for 8 years. They are not going to compete for the next 8 years. Way to waste 150 mil
Not going to compete for 8 years? They have a Top 3 farm system and they have 5-6 legit prospects in AA many of which will arrive in 2018 (Quantrill, Lucchesi, Lauer, Nix, etc.) Then the next wave in 2019 (Tatis Jr, Urias, Gore, Baez, etc.)
Padres should be around .500 in 2018 and then competing for playoff spot in starting in 2019-20 and beyond for at least a 5 year window.
Closer to .500 in 2018 now but they should be looking st a wild card in 2019 maybe or may not get it
5 to 6 players in double A , which means they will be in the majors in 3 years…another 2 years until the rookies mature and hosmer is already on the back side of his contract. Wouldn’t it be nice to have his 20 million available to them to get a free agent in the prime not having an over priced and an older hosmer
All of those guys in AA will get a shot at the majors in 2018 and at least 4 will stick on the 25 man by 2019 if not sooner. Urias, Tatis, Reyes, Quantrill, Nix, Lauer, Lucchesi, Wingenter, Weir, Weick, and McGrath. When it comes to money, they only have $90 million on the books including Hosmer and a cap of $130 million according the owners. That is a lot of money to make additions.
Ok Carnac
On a Production-to-Dollars scale, Hosmer has been worth merely 79 Million the last seven seasons
Questioning his ability to be worth almost 150 million over the next 8 years hardly seems that out of line – esp when on a club that isn’t poised to compete yet
14 WAR is worth $79 million? Fangraphs just said 1 WAR was worth $9 million.
Do you believe one win is still worth 9 million? Andrew cashner just posted a 4 win season and got 8 mil guaranteed a year. That number has to be influenced by relievers because it definitely isn’t the valuation model teams are using this offseason. Frazier is a 3 win player making 9 a year. I could go on. One win isn’t worth 9 million from every position that doesn’t work.
What did you use to make up the 14?
And even if you wanted to use the 9m you claim Fangraphs said a WAR is worth (even tho they used 8per last year) …well, Hosmer has been worth merely 9.9 WAR over his career according to them
9.9 WAR x 9m = 89.1
9.9 WAR x 8m = 79.2
So, yeah, again – good luck getting nearly 150 million out of him…
I can’t help but feel the Mariners need at least one more starter. Don’t think they can contend with Astros and Angels, but this is Cruz’s last year. They need to assemble a full roster in case they get lucky, then start the lengthy rebuild after this year
The only thing they really have to stress is starting pitching. Lot of youth and players in their prime and under control on the Mariners now.
They’ve stripped the little they had in the system though. Only real trade chip is Kyle Lewis. It’ll have to be Cobb or Lynn if they want to add to the rotation.
8 years. 8. Years. We talkin’ bout Hosmer. Hosmer.
Its really 5 years, made to look like 8 so Boras isn’t embarrassed too much.
I dont know damn near everybody praised the big 2015 free agent splash and it didnt work out. Ive gpt my fingers crossed everybody hates this one and it ends up working out..
What? That splash was largely lambasted.
Padres will be fine with Hosmer. They will for sure get the best outta of him in the first 5 years of his career after that he can be traded to be a DH in the AL
after that, he will opt out. even he should be worth more than 13mm then.
“While Law is bullish on the Padres’ overall direction, he regards this signing as a “baffling misstep” by their front office.”
While he is correct on what he states, I think it is even worse for what it will mean for the future of other players.
Already there are guys out there (*coughJDcough*) demanding way more than they deserve based off what some other non-deserving guys have gotten sometime in the past; with them generally pointing to deals everyone knew right away were pretty questionable as their reason for demanding something equally questionable now.
For the Padres to come along and add yet another extremely questionable signing on top of the heap for no real logical reason… especially at a time in which the other owners seem to be coming to their senses, amazingly…
Use some Padres logic? A large part of the Padres 2018 team has under 2 years of service time. 5-10 prospects should get a chance in 2018 but the bigger waves of talent comes after. Thus, when all the talent signs (back loaded) extensions or hit free agency while Padres are winning, Hosmer will be opted out or making only 13m a season and will be a bargain? Money they are now paying to Shields, Kemp, Oliveras will be paid and they will have even more space to spend? Padres have multiple prospects that grade as everyday or better at every position except 1b. Sigining Hosmer to lead them all will make sense one day.
Surprised about the Hosmer signing. Padres added David Cameron to front office and he didn’t have any enthusiasm for Hosmer. I like him.
How much would Cargo get on a 1 year deal?
10 mil?
I would like to see the Cubs take a flyer on him. Throw Hayward in center with Almora as backup to all 3
4-7 mil i’d say
He needs a 1 year. Who will sign him to more after last year?
“The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job…which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions.”
That’s what Keith Law spouted in 2012 about Dayton Moore trading Wil Myers for Wade Davis & James Shields, the “good but not great” Wil Myers. I think that shows Keith Law is full of hyperbole and doesn’t always know what he’s talking about.
However, while I think he’s right and the Padres did overpay but it’s fair to say that Petco is to hitters what Coors is to pitchers, so I can see why there could be an overpay. I think Hosmer’s swing and power for doubles fits well in SD but I know he’s not going to turn the padres into a playoff team by himself.
Just with Santana and the Phillies, some clubs are investing money in veteran bats to help bring along young hitters. The Phillies are doing that to help develop Hoskins, Williams, etc. and I think the padres are doing the same but they have to really like what they think Hosmer will bring.
Also, look at their division, the Dodgers are the class of it but the other three teams, there’s no guarantees there. The Rockies and D’Backs had great years but they have enough questions if certain guys will repeat their 2017 performances and valuable pieces of their rosters close to or hitting free agency. And the Giants well, 2018 can’t be worse than 2017 but the Giants are getting 2018 McCutchen and Longoria, not the 2010 versions. There’s a legitimate chance the padres could finish top 2 in the west if things work in their favor.
While it will handicap the Padres long term in making investments in players, I think with the winter the MLB has had, I find it refreshing that a team is making a daring move (whether it’s wise is a different matter but it makes the potential NL West matchups more entertaining). With the implications of collusion and a number of teams (including the team I root for, the Phillies), tearing down their rosters and filling spots in their rosters with AAAA guys and spot starters, essentially competing for the #1 pick rather than a playoff spot. Even if the Padres wind up in the cellar, part of me is still happy to see those mid-tier teams try to jump up and play with the big boys. (Although if I was a Padres fan I’d be more conflicted)
Preller was just extended to 2022. He has no fears for his job. Law does. subscriptions to Insider are down 80% from their peak in 2009 and they are falling fast. If Law doesn’t say controversial garbage in vain attempt to attract readers he will be losing his job soon.
The same can be said about ESPN in general.
After seeing how the contract is laid out, I don’t think the signing is as bad as I originally thought it was. It was smart for them to frontload it, and it really gives Hosmer an incentive to opt out after the first 5 years.
On this we agree. I have never been a fan of Insider and never subscribed, even after they promoted it early on with a couple of free articles, because I never saw the value there. It seem that most folks are coming around to that POV.
Petco isn’t like that anymore
Wonder how Hosmer will do facing 4 of the top 9 pitching staffs in the NL league the NL West,… LA ,D-Backs, Giants and Rockies 76 times as opposed to the 3 of the bottom 7 in the AL, the Central ….Twins, White Sox and Tigers, along with the top rated Indians, the same amount of times?
giants are not tops rockies are not tops dbacks are not tops. doyuers ok.
DBacks and Rox are easily top 9 in NL. Probably top 5.
Top 9 yes, but not top 5. According to the betting odds.D’backs are 6th in the NL to win the WS, Rockies are 9th.
If it wasn’t for this site, would anyone actually read Law? No one I know reads his babbling. There are actual intelligent writers out there.
As a padres fan I can handle hosmer at an aav of 18. Still didnt think we need him
Padres “core” wont hit arb eligibility until 2022 2023 which is when hosmers deal turns from 5 years 105 mill to 3 years 39 mill….if he opts out even better.
Myers to LF means pirela and the rest are dealt for what you can get.
Or the padres attach prospects and players to deal myers.
Maybe myers cordero and a pitcher like nix to the Orioles in an effort to clear salary.
Who do we have that would be worth a haul like that and why would the O’s want a RHB? The O’s are in desperate need of starting pitching. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have Myers on the O’s, but we really have no one the Padres need. They need top of the rotation starting pitching.
I don’t often comment on here and I certainly don’t pay to read an idiot like Keith Law, but this signing and all the naysayers have prompted me to break my silence.
#1 – Hosmer is better than what the Padres had at 1B, 2 or more wins better, and he is better than anything the Padres have in their minor league system. His rings and leadership don’t hurt the youngest team in baseball either.
#2 – Moving Myers to LF improves LF by a couple of wins over the guys that played there last year..
#3 – The team has now gotten better at 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF over what they had on opening day 2017. 2017 was a 71 win team and they got 10 wins better with the upgrades at those positions. Hedges, Margot and Renfroe should improve too.
#4 – I seem to remember the Astros and Cubs being right where the Padres were in 2017 back in 2014 before they each made a couple of signings and a couple of trades and then had breakout seasons in 2015. The Padres are a premier starting pitcher away from contending.
#5 – Headley and Galvis are on one year deals so they are not blocking the Padres two best position player prospects. If Tatis is not ready to take over at SS or 3B as many think is his home next season, Spangenberg LHB and Villanueva RHB is a good platoon at 3B and Urias has proven in AA that he can handle SS.
#6 – There are no top pitching prospects that would be blocked by adding a top starter now. The only pitching prospects with a shot at being top of the rotation starters, Baez, Gore, Morejon and Espinoza are 3 years away. In 2019 Quantrill, Nix, Lauer, Lucchesi and possibly Allen and Diaz will be ready, but by the odds only one will make it as a starter.
#7 – The pitching staff has a good core locked in through 2022. Perdomo is a very talented starter and people need to remember that he was a rule 5 in 2016 and is 2 years removed from Low A ball. By all rights 2018 should be his rookie season and he already has 2 seasons in the majors under his belt. Look for a big improvement from him.. Lamet started 2016 in A+ ball and has a half season in the majors under his belt. When he was on he was electric, downright un-hittable. A little time to built up endurance and he is a TOR starter. Those two a fantastic foundation that is here now. Mitchell, Strahm, Rea, Erlin, and Lockett are talented, but if they are blocked by a better pitcher picked up in FA or in a trade or both that is not a huge loss. Any of them can be sent to the pen and 4 of the 5 can go to El Paso for a year.
#8 – Last but not least this signing and the prospects that are ready in 2018 have made at least 6 talented players with MLB experience trade bait. Jankowski, Dickerson, Asuaje, Cordoba, Pirela, and Szczur. These expendable guys can be packaged with prospects to bring in better pitching for this season and beyond.
This is a good team, a .500 team with no additions, and with a couple of starters they are a Wild Card team. Make it happen Preller.
You are Pads Fans. The 2018 Padres are not the 2015 Cubs or Astros. Who do they have coming up to play the role Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa played? And which of the Padres pitchers are going to make the strides Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel made in 2015? Today is another year to see what they have in young guys like PIrela and Villanueva and to oversee the development of their prospects like Tatis and Gore.
Well said
ESPN should fire Keith Law. First class dope! Pads need lefty bat and a real 1B player. Myers was failed experiment. He will be gone before the big $ kicks in….hopefully. He has a low IQ and not worth $20m. They should trade him! Hosmer is bi-lingual and good in the clubhouse. Read Chris Young comments… I am good with it.
I don’t like this signing for the Padres. It’s not that I think Hosmer isn’t good. I actually like him as a player. And I don’t mind the $18M AAV either I think that’s market value. I hate the length though. And I think those resources could have been better served elsewhere.
Defensively Myers is better at 1B than the OF. Admittedly it’s not ideal that, unlike Hosmer, he throws righty. But I still don’t see a huge advantage to making room at 1B for Hosmer by moving Myers to a position he’s not particularly good at, especially when SD has some good young promising players in the OF. It makes more sense to me if the Padres are going to trade Myers, but I don’t think there’s a big market for 1B/OFs.
I don’t like when opt-out comes either. Him opting out after 3 years could work in SD’s favor. After 5 years he is more likely to opt in if he shows signs of a decline. I could be wrong, and we won’t know for several years, but I think SD may eventually regret this.
I have to be honest-
Hosmer wasn’t close to worth the contract he got, however, Preller structured the contract about as well as you could in terms of an 8 year contract. It is significantly front loaded, and has an opt-out after 5 (after his age 32 season I believe). Seeing as how he makes less than $15m a year after the opt-out, he’s more likely to opt-out and if he doesn’t the Padres aren’t stuck with $20-$30m on the books each year like the Yanks are with Ellisbury, Miami with Chen etc.
You make a good point about the front-loading, but I’m not sure using Ellsbury, or Chen was the best examples.
I have to be honest as well. The front loading makes the contract worse. So its not an $18m AAV it becomes $21m AAV. Terrible structure
Contract would be better for the Padres without the opt-out. Or if it were just straight up 5/$105m
What does Borass do with all his unemployed clients? Easy for him to say sit and wait but cargo gonna have to take a huge pay cut
I Really like that all you Nostradumasses can predict the Padres future,if the Padres are investing in the team all we here backlash on them overpaying players like if it were your guys money, and as soon as any other team not named the Padres it would be a great move,none of you dumasses even follow the Padres yet always have a negative opinion, I my self a Tru Padres Fan see the big picture of what Preller and I’m 100% on board with them,they are following in the footsteps of the Royals, Cubs ,Astros,but of course since it’s the Padres they don’t know what they are doing, You people are the same people that will be on the Wagon as soon as they start Winning ..
Well said!!
Have you been following the whole Hosmer situation? Many people fans, media or experts questioned giving Hosmer a huge contract long before the Padres were even a rumored suitor. Reguardless of where he went in free agency there would have been lots of criticism of the move. The Padres are not unique. No one is targeting them. Padres fans clearly can’t handle any scrutiny based off being offended by the anti Hosmer comments.
@Ray1904
Boy are all Padres fans as sensitive and angry as you?
Its a terrible signing. Sorry pal. Deal with it
It’s actually really easy to predict the future when the same thing happens every single year. Padres own the cellar, bro.
Why is it a bad signing, none of you guys even give a reason for it ,when you don’t even know nothing about the team that signed him,from what I hear Royals fans are heartbroken over losing Hosmer and sports analyst have nothing but good things to say about him, yet it’s a bad signing, wow….
Because they are paying Hosmer like 2017 is the norm for him when it’s not and because 1st base was not a need for them. Now they will basically have to trade two of Myers, Renfroe, Pirela, Dickerson and Jankowski.
Trade Fred Janko that’s good one! Value through the roof. Dickerson lol
Lol brain dead lol
So you prefer team leaders Pirela,Dickerson, Jankowski,Renfroe,Believe it or not that’s a Really big part of a Championship team, and hopefully you guys know who our team leader was Cuz I sure didn’t …
So you prefer team leaders Pirela,Dickerson, Jankowski,Renfroe,Believe it or not that’s a Really big part of a Championship team, and hopefully you guys know who our team leader was Cuz I sure didn’t …oh by the way..Red Sox about to sign and over pay for J D Martinez, so go write on how great of a signing that was for them…..hahah
PING…testing one, two, three.