In an offseason that’s been unlike any in big league history, it should come as no surprise that the month of March is on track for an unprecedented level of spending. While the remaining free agents at the top of the market almost certainly won’t find contracts matching the expectations they carried into the offseason, they still figure to draw some significant offers. The ongoing open-market presence of Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Mike Moustakas, Neil Walker, Carlos Gonzalez and Jonathan Lucroy, among others, should lead to a record-setting amount of money spent in the month of March.
Going back over the past decade, the largest contract given to any player in the month of March was Manny Ramirez‘s two-year, $45MM contract with the Dodgers prior to the 2009 season. That contract represents one of just two multi-year deals worth more than $10MM per season over that span. The second belongs to Kyle Lohse, who signed a three-year, $33MM deal with the Brewers back in 2012.
In fact, over the past decade, there have only been three multi-year deals hammered out in the month of March at all, and the third was a modest two-year, $4.25MM contract for Oliver Perez with the Diamondbacks. And outside of the deals for Ramirez and Lohse, the only other player to top a $10MM salary in the month of March was Ervin Santana, who signed a one-year, $14.1MM deal with the Braves in 2013 after languishing on the market for much of the offseason after initially seeking a reported six-year deal which teams universally deemed to be too rich.
The Santana situation, perhaps, could be instructive for the likes of Lynn and Cobb. Santana’s $14.1MM salary that season was a dead match for the qualifying offer he rejected from the Royals some four months prior to signing in Atlanta. While it still seems plausible that either Lynn or Cobb could land a multi-year deal in free agency — something in the Lohse neighborhood, seemingly, would hold appeal to multiple clubs — there’s perhaps also a case to be made that thsoe players would be well-served to take a salary comparable to the one they rejected on a short-term deal and look instead to cash in next winter. Santana landed his current four-year, $55MM deal with the Twins a after a solid season with the Braves despite receiving a second qualifying offer that winter. Unlike Santana, Lynn, Cobb and Arrieta will not receive a second qualifying offer, as the CBA now stipulates that a player may receive only one in his career.
Turning to position players, the Ramirez deal stands out as a notable exception. Pedro Alvarez‘s $5.75MM contract with the Orioles in 2015 constitutes the next-largest contract in recent memory, followed by Austin Jackson‘s $5MM deal with the 2016 White Sox and David Freese‘s $3MM deal with the Pirates that same season.
Generally speaking, those types of signings — veterans with notable flaws in their game or significant injuries in their recent past who’ve taken one-year deals at modest salaries — have typified signings in the month of March. I’ve not found a March in recent memory where the total spending topped the Ramirez year, but there are presently at least three free agents who could conceivably approach or exceed that total. Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn could all still draw that kind of money, and we certainly expected a big contract for Mike Moustakas at the outset of the offseason. Even if expectations are trending down, for Moustakas in particular, injuries could still shake things up. And it’s only fair to point out that the agent shared by Arrieta and Moustakas, the inimitable Scott Boras, is also the person who negotiated the only three prior multi-year March deals.
Barring some truly dramatic hold-outs into the 2018 season, we’re likely to see an unprecedented amount of free-agent spending over the next thirty days.
That Ervin Santana deal ended up being a great move for the Braves, even with losing the pick.
Yeah. Most especially so because they made the signing only because of a Spring injury, iirc.
I also believe that Santana fired his agent only a few days prior because he wasn’t getting (“adequate”) offers. The value of the deal was made because of compensation rules.
With Cobb you must give up a draft pick; I don’t see him signing anytime soon unless the price is low…
Yeah, real low. He really blew it not taking the QO
He blew it overvaluing himself and not taking the Cubs initial offer to him.
It sounds like he was ready to jump on that offer until his agent talked him out of it.
Good historical analysis, Steve, but you should have made some sort of reference to current payroll capacities. How much spending power do teams actually have left? It seems like most contenders are pretty close to “tapped out” on their offseason spending…
From the reporting we have seen this offseason, the only contenders that are probably really tapped out are the Giants and Red Sox. The Giants want to stay under and the Red Sox are close to the 2nd penalty. The Cubs, Angels.,Nat’s, Dodgers and Yankees have some money left but might want to wait to during the season. The Brewers, Twins, and other middle market teams have what they are willing to pay. The Astros and Indians don’t really have clear areas of need.
The Indians need right handed OF help !
If a team could get Lynn for anything like that Loshe deal 3 for $33M – that would be an absolute steal. Even the Red Sox, who’d pay the highest tax/surcharge would be crazy not to do it. They could turn around and trade E. Rodriguez for a couple of decent prospects to make up for the draft penalty and that gets his $2.375 million (and growing) salary off the books. Dump Holt too and you’ve gotten back 40% of Lynn’s cost, so gotten a reliable innings eating 3 win pitcher plus a couple of prospects for 6 or 7 million.
Steve, I’m not so sure the spending will occur in the next 30 days. I just get a feeling that the staredowns on contract lengths will continue.
Here is why it may happen: Your last article on “best fits” listed these clubs as the best for Arrieta: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Angels
How many of them are desperate for an upgrade that will cost (length/years) what Arrieta is seeking? Most of them are probably comfortable going into the season and seeing what they have, and if they are close, making a move at or near the deadline.
The Nats are the clear favorite in the division. If one accepts the proposition that short postseason series are, overall, crapshoots, then how much does Arrieta raise the odds that they advance in the postseason? .
The Phillies have a lot of young arms they are trying to figure out, and no one projects them to be in the hunt. Adding Arrieta may prove to be meaningless, and they may be better off waiting until the middle of the summer to see what they have as opposed to inking Arrieta to the length he wants.
Arrieta improves the odds for all of the clubs, but that assumes he doesn’t continue to decline, which I believe is the real, unspoken fear that is hurting his market.
So, unless Arrieta/Boras become more “flexible”, I’m not sure the staredown doesn’t continue for Jake and his suitors, and the same could be said for most of those guys.
Just the stupidity of the title of the article says it all, the sheep media still doesn’t get it.
Enlighten us on what we are missing here.
I think we’ve addressed the market pace and spending levels in a measured way all winter. It never made sense to overreact to the slow movement and it doesn’t make sense now to rush into any conclusions.
There are a lot of trolls here. Don’t take him seriously.
Just genuinely curious as to the actual critique.
I get having Steve’s back. But writers/editors responding to this dumb type of comment is silly on its own right. Ignore it boys.
But sometimes it’s worthwhile to call out trolls for their BS. Slap a bully on the nose, every once in a while they’ll shut up.
I concur. Don’t spend too much time on them, of course, but push/ force them to actually explain themselves. If they don’t, it’s proof they can’t. If they “do” and it’s utter BS, it’s also proof they can’t.
No actual critique from the troll, just them making trying to troll.
trolls. All they are.
Moustakas is looking at something in the Morrison/Duda range. Anything else will be an overpay.
He and Lucroy are the most amazing freefallers to me. I get their flaws, but it seems like no one wants them.
I wonder if the Royals would even do 3/15? Seriously, if Moose said he’d take that, would the Royals say yes or pass?
If only Moustakas had a high OBP… He would be almost the perfect player.
And he’d Pass. I strongly believe despite Moose’s limited market, Todd Frazier’s 2 years $17M (8.5 aav) is his floor
Theyd be stupid to pass i mean 3/15 for moose id take him and the red sox dont even need him
I agree. Moose is an overrated player. He is comparable to the guys you mention. Only difference is that he hits for a higher average, but has a lower obp.
Why didn’t you put up a picture of Scott Boras?
Personally I just think that G.M.S & owners are so tired of Scott Boris b.s. That if they don’t have to deal with him they won’t.Lol
owners colluding against scott boras. what a thought
It doesn’t have to be collusion. Everyone in the world ended up deciding to hate A-Rod’s guts for the POS he is. Everyone in the world ended up deciding to ignore him. No team would touch him for that “you never know” 1-year swan song.
Even though he would still have been a productive hitter, every team in baseball passed on Barry Bonds after the 2007 season. He would’ve easily been the best DH in baseball, but he didn’t get a single offer.
These aren’t evidence of collusion. Just everybody eventually coming to the same conclusion: They simply weren’t worth dealing with. Some were slower than others, of course, but even they eventually came to the same conclusion.
Looks like he’s still bringing home the bacon for his clients. Lofl
Scott Boris is scum and the owners know it.
Who is Scott Boris?
Yea that dirtbag doing his job. String him up!!!
if a defense attorney gets off a rapist is he just doing his job? Yes, but he’s still scum.
WOW just WOW…omfg
Now did that do any good getting that out?
Good read, Steve. I’m thinking Lynn or Cobb just may end up signing that 1 year QO deal or takes the Lohse 3-30ish.
I can’t help but think that in their and Arrieta’s case, the 1-year, “Fine, I’ll f-ing prove to all of you” deal is the best.
Sign with a team that will help their FA cause next year best and get on the field. It may not be a fair system, but they can also use it as a means of driving themselves.
Remember when we seriously debated whether or not LoMo would get the QO? Probably would have been just as much of a debate if he would accept it or not. Damn what a weird offseason.
Zach Cozart. Hindsight says, maybe Reds made the right decision.
In what? Not giving him the QO?
Yeah. The overwhelming majority, (except for a couple of shrewd Reds’ fans) thought the Reds messed up not tendering Cozart a $17.4m QO, after the 32 year old went .297/.385/.548 with 24 home runs and 63 RBI, over 122 games, with usual positive defense (+2 DRS, +3.7 UZR) and lifetime defense (+56 DRS, +45.9 UZR)
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2616&posit…
It’s kind of silly to be comparing guys signed in March over past years, because there’s never been this level of talent available in March.
silly to your pea-brain possibly. don’t read it and sure as hell don’t comment.
You are the perfect depiction of what’s wrong with society today.
You hear an opinion you don’t like so you tell the person you disagree with to shut up and call them a name.
And you’re the one talking about lack of intelligence?
Jrankin you essentially called the author silly for writing the article. That’s your opinion.
Yeah, and this guy called me a name and told me to shut up. Not constructive and not helpful.
My point is, this is a unique offseason and it’s just not in the same league of comparison with other offseasons because never have this many elite players been available in March. There is nothing to compare it to:
You are, of course, correct. Adams did allude to that in the article.
Perhaps I’m being cynical, I just don’t see the point in comparing apples and oranges!
I prefer apples.
You calling an article silly isn’t helpful either.
I prefer oranges ! It’s called opinions !
I kinda wish the braves would go after arrieta and Lucroy. Doesn’t make a lot of sense money wise to go after them, so they should stay away. But I think they would fit well as braves
At this point the players should probably just take one year deals go into next offseason and hope to get a multi year deal next year from the losers of the big free agents
I have to agree. I get that Arrieta sees this off-season as his opportunity for that one big contract, but reality seems to be getting in the way. If these guys sign one-year deals they better do it soon because if they miss spring training, there won’t be many teams willing to pay near market value.
Tony Clark was whining and blathering about how the CBA doesn’t work if all 30 teams aren’t trying to win.
Joel Sherman asked him point blank a few years ago (before the new CBA) if he was concerned about the increasing number of teams tanking and how it could affect the union and his response was that he’d never really thought about it.
How on Earth did he get this job?
Meanwhile, the NHLPA (led by Don Fehr) members are enjoying record earnings with a higher minimum salary than MLB players.
How about this: in the next CBA, instead of losing a pick, the picks get moved down a couple of rounds. Would both sides agree to that? Would it make any difference?
The purpose for losing the pick is to keep the rich from getting richer. You might as well not have any compensation at all then because it essentially still effects draft picks.
True. How about slotting how much you use by last season’s record or last three seasons’ record? And you leave the luxury tax in place. Former Brewer GM Doug Melvin suggested that the non-playoff teams should have their draft order determined in the order of their record from 8/1 on; that is, the team with the BEST record that doesn’t make the playoffs gets the first pick, etc.
I don’t think I can fully agree with Melvin’s idea. After all, the purpose of drafts being bottom-up is to alleviate performance disparity. In all likelihood, the teams who generally play best after the deadline will be there teams we had been playing better before it. Teams at the bottom should be given better talent to rise to the top.
Perhaps in conjunction with a tiering system would be better. Tiered by full season, but slotted within by 8/1-end of season. Those who make the playoffs are slotted by inverse playoff position (WS winners get last pick).
Then the worst team wont get good and the fringe teams will become better fringe teams
Lohse signed his deal with Milwaukee in March of 2013, not 2012.