All of our top 50 free agents from the 2017-18 offseason have signed, concluding a free agent freeze the likes of which we’ve never seen in MLBTR’s 12-year history. With Masahiro Tanaka choosing not to opt out and the Indians picking up their option on Michael Brantley, here are the grisly numbers on the 48 free agents from our list.
- Predicted total dollars: $1,650,000,000. Actual total dollars: $1,275,000,000. These 48 free agents received 77.3% of what was predicted for them.
- 37.5% of players received fewer years than expected, 54.2% received exactly as many years as expected, and 8.3% received more years than expected. Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, Logan Morrison, and Addison Reed received at least two fewer years than expected.
- 64.6% of players received fewer total dollars than expected, 6.3% received exactly as many dollars as expected, and 29.2% received more dollars than expected. Tyler Chatwood, Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain exceeded their projections by $10MM or more. 14 players fell at least $10MM short of projections, led by Moustakas ($78.5MM short), Lynn ($44MM short), and J.D. Martinez ($40MM short).
- These seven players had to settle for one-year deals in the $3-6.5MM range despite projections of at least $12MM: Moustakas, Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Neil Walker, and Jon Jay.
For a laugh, check out the image I had made up on March 14th, 2017 of my top projected free agents. Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto wisely chose not to opt out after questionable seasons, Lucroy signed for peanuts, and top pitchers Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta fell short of expectations. At least we had J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer at #6-7.
The 2018-19 free agent market will be different. I do think there is an unfortunate new reality for most good-but-not-great veteran free agents. Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon, 32 in July, recognized the downside risk and accepted an extension worth five years and $94MM in new money. But this class still looks legendary because of the talent at the top.
1. Bryce Harper. Before his 2012 Rookie of the Year season, Baseball America called Harper “the most hyped position player prospect in baseball history.” Seemingly groomed for MLB stardom from birth, Harper graduated high school early and fast-tracked himself to make his debut with the Nationals at age 19. He’s only missed the All-Star team once in his career, and won the NL MVP in 2015. Harper stands alongside Mike Trout and Joey Votto as one of the best hitters in baseball, combining power and patience from the left side of the plate. Due to his early debut and avoidance of contract extensions, Harper stands to reach free agency as a 26-year-old.
Aside from the sky-high price tag, only Harper’s injury history could give teams pause. Harper has gone on the disabled list three times in his career, missing anywhere from 35-65 days with each injury. He suffered knee and thumb injuries in 2013 and ’14, respectively, that resulted from his all-out style of play. Both ultimately required surgery. Harper rebounded to play in 300 games from 2015-16, but suffered a bone bruise in his left knee last August that kept him out for a month and a half. Harper is healthy and raking early in 2018, and something close to 150 games played should quiet injury concerns.
Though he understandably refuses to discuss his free agency with reporters this year, MLB fans expect an epic experience with the Winter Meetings taking place in Harper’s hometown Las Vegas. 18 years after opinionated agent Scott Boras brokered Alex Rodriguez’s precedent-shattering 10-year, $252MM free agent contract with the Rangers, he’ll attempt to raise the bar with Harper. Harper figures to easily surpass the current record contract, Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM deal from November 2014. Aside from beating that total by more than $100MM, Boras will also aim to destroy the current average annual value record, the $34.4MM Zack Greinke is earning. A half billion dollars could be in play. Harper could land anywhere from $400-500MM over 10-14 years. Opt-out clauses will likely be scattered throughout, allowing Harper the opportunity to later break his own record.
2. Manny Machado. About three months after Harper debuted in 2012, Machado reached the Majors as the Orioles’ third baseman. Just a few months older than Harper, Machado was also a first-round prodigy. Machado’s bat took longer to blossom, with a power surge in his fourth season. Machado is well-known for his defense on the left side of the infield. He came up as a shortstop, but began his big league career at third base to accommodate J.J. Hardy. Machado became an elite defender at the hot corner, winning three Gold Gloves. His ascent was interrupted when he tore the medial patellar ligament in his left knee in September 2013, pushing his 2014 debut into May. Several months later, Machado sprained a ligament in the other knee, also necessitating surgery. The knee injuries are behind him, as Machado averaged 158 games from 2015-17. He played a couple months of shortstop in the summer of 2016 when Hardy got hurt, and convinced the Orioles to shift him back to his natural position for the 2018 season. In addition to establishing himself as an above-average defensive shortstop, Machado must shake off mediocre offensive output from 2017, when he posted a .310 OBP.
Machado endured trade rumors throughout the offseason, and could be dealt this summer if the Orioles fall out of contention. Though he’ll fall short of Harper’s contract, some teams may consider Machado a more balanced player with lower health risk. Since he doesn’t turn 26 until July, Machado is also set up for a monster contract that could top $300MM.
3. Clayton Kershaw. Already an all-time great at age 30, Kershaw has been slowed only by his balky back. He lost 74 days to a back injury in 2016 and another 39 last summer. Kershaw otherwise remains at the top of his game. He’s got three Cy Young awards (and an MVP) under his belt and even finished fifth in the Cy voting in 2016 (149 innings) and second last year (175 innings). By measure of Wins Above Replacement, Kershaw ranks fourth in baseball among pitchers from 2016-17 despite pitching about 100 innings fewer than the three hurlers ranked ahead of him. Logically, barring an in-season extension with the Dodgers, Kershaw will opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM left on his contract and explore free agency for the first time. For teams formulating an offer, the primary forecasting question will be more about Kershaw’s health than his abilities. How much time will the future Hall of Famer miss within the next seven or eight seasons? Will he require back surgery at some point? If Kershaw makes it through this season mostly unscathed, he’ll be primed to sign the largest contract ever for a starting pitcher, topping David Price’s seven-year, $217MM pact and Greinke’s $34.4MM average annual value.
4. Josh Donaldson. The Cubs drafted Donaldson 48th overall in 2007 as compensation for the loss of free agent Juan Pierre. Donaldson had switched from third base to catcher during college, and Baseball America said he projected “as a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers a season.” He was soon shipped to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade, and before the ’08 season BA noted that “some scouts question if he’ll hit enough to be a big league regular.” Donaldson got a big league look in 2010, but he was still buried on the Athletics’ catching depth chart in 2011 at age 25. His opportunity finally came in 2012 with a preseason injury to A’s third baseman Scott Sizemore. Donaldson bounced up and down that year but started to emerge in the season’s final two months. Finally, in 2013 at age 27, Donaldson established himself as one of the best third basemen in baseball. He combined strong defense with increasing power to become a perennial MVP candidate. The A’s traded him to Toronto in the 2014-15 offseason, and Donaldson won the MVP in his first season with his new team. Last year marked his first appearance on the DL, as he lost more than a month to a calf injury. Currently, he’s on the DL for right shoulder inflammation. As a late bloomer, Donaldson will play his first season on his next contract as a 33-year-old. In discussing his free agency with my MLBTR colleagues, I was the low man on his contract, not fully convinced a player with this profile can secure a four-year deal. At the least, he’s a candidate for an AAV in the $25MM range.
5. Craig Kimbrel. A third round pick of the Braves in 2008, Kimbrel emerged as the best closer in baseball beginning in 2011. Kimbrel racked up 185 saves for the Braves from 2011-14, inking an extension along the way that bought out his first two free agent years. The Padres acquired him in 2015 in a rare April trade, capping off their ill-fated push for contention under A.J. Preller. Seven months later Preller turned around and dealt Kimbrel to the Red Sox. Kimbrel made his fifth All-Star game in his first season with Boston, though his walk rate spiked up to a dangerous level. He more than corrected that problem in a dominant 2017, finishing sixth in the Cy Young voting. Another vintage Kimbrel season may result in the largest reliever contract in baseball history. Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal is the record, while Wade Davis set the high water mark for AAV at $17.3MM in December winter. Kimbrel will likely be striving for a five-year deal, though he’ll pitch most of 2019 at age 31 (as opposed to Chapman and Kenley Jansen beginning their recent free agent deals at age 29).
6. Patrick Corbin. Corbin, a 28-year-old lefty, was a second-round pick of the Angels in 2009. Near the trade deadline in 2010, he became the third piece headed to the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade. Corbin bounced up and down with Arizona in 2012 and won the team’s fifth starter job out of camp in 2013. At age 23, Corbin authored an excellent All-Star campaign over 208 1/3 innings. In line to start Opening Day 2014, Corbin instead wound up getting Tommy John surgery in March that year. About 15 months later, he was back on a Major League mound and acquitted himself well in 16 starts. Corbin had a surprisingly rough 2016, losing his rotation job in mid-August after seeing his walk and home run rates spike. He bounced back with a healthy 3.0 WAR season in 2017 and is off to a nice start this year. Since that 2016 bottoming out, Corbin has increased his slider usage to the current 46.8%, throwing the pitch more often than any starter other than Chris Archer. Corbin has youth on his side and will compete with Dallas Keuchel to be considered the best free agent starting pitcher, Non-Kershaw Division. At nearly 19 months younger than Keuchel, age is on Corbin’s side. After the 2015-16 free agent starting pitcher bonanza, in which seven pitchers signed for at least five years (excluding Kenta Maeda), only one starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, has reached five years in the past two offseasons. That will likely be Corbin’s goal.
7. Dallas Keuchel. Compared to Corbin, Keuchel has age working against him, but the Astros lefty also has a Cy Young Award on his shelf from 2015. Keuchel is a ground-ball machine when he’s on, including a 66.8% rate last year that was tops among starters with at least 140 innings. Neck injuries caused Keuchel to miss more than two months in 2017, and a healthy season would increase his chances at a strong multi-year deal in free agency. Keuchel’s profile as a soft-tossing southpaw who relies heavily on ground-balls could be spun either way — it’s not as exciting as a power arm with a more strikeout-oriented approach, but it could also be seen as a skill set that will age better than his peers who rely more on premium velocity.
8. Brian Dozier. The Twins drafted Dozier in the eighth round in 2009. In his first Baseball America profile in 2011, they wrote, “His biggest weakness is his lack of power, as he doesn’t project to hit more than 5-10 homers annually.” BA didn’t rate any of Dozier’s tools as above-average at the time, so he was even more of an underdog than Donaldson. Dozier became the Twins’ Minor League Player of the Year that season, and was upgraded to a future Jamey Carroll type. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire championed Dozier as more than a utility man, however, and indeed he took over for Carroll as the team’s starting shortstop in May 2012. The 25-year-old rookie was demoted in August but bounced back to win the Twins’ starting second base job out of camp in 2013. Dozier never looked back, hitting 17 home runs in his final 108 games that year. The second baseman continued ramping up his power output over the years, peaking with 42 bombs in 2016. By WAR, he was the 11th-best position player in baseball from 2016-17, exceeding the output of players like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Dozier will play most of 2019 at 32, so like Donaldson, his age will work against him in free agency. Alex Gordon’s four-year, $72MM deal could be a target.
9. A.J. Pollock. Pollock, 30, was taken 17th overall by the Diamondbacks as part of their productive 2009 draft. He made his Major League debut in 2012 upon an injury to Chris Young. A spring 2013 injury to Adam Eaton opened up a door for Pollock, who logged most of the team’s innings in center field that year. Eaton was traded that winter, further cementing Pollock’s position until a Johnny Cueto pitch broke his hand in late May, costing him three months. Health was not a problem in Pollock’s incredible 2015 season, a .315/.367/.498 effort worth 6.8 WAR and MVP votes. In 2016, an elbow injury derailed Pollock’s ascent to stardom. The elbow fracture required surgery, as did a similar injury suffered by Pollock when he was in the minors in 2010. Pollock appeared in just 12 games in 2016, and then lost 50 days in 2017 with a groin injury. A healthy contract year is crucial as Pollock looks to achieve the five-year, $80MM center fielder standard set by Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain.
10. Elvis Andrus. Though Andrus is in his ninth season with the Rangers, he still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday. Signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Braves, the Rangers acquired Andrus in the legendary Mark Teixeira trade near the July 2007 deadline. Andrus became the Rangers’ starting shortstop as a 20-year-old in 2009, with Michael Young moving to third base to accommodate the rookie. Renowned for his defense, speed, and makeup, Andrus settled in as a 2-3 WAR shortstop. In April 2013, the Rangers signed Andrus to what GM Jon Daniels called “an unusual deal,” a record extension worth $120MM over eight years. The contract allows Andrus to opt out after the 2018 or ’19 seasons. He’s guaranteed $58MM over the next four years, so opting out this winter isn’t a slam dunk. After serving as an iron man for nine seasons, Andrus will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken elbow that will not require surgery. It’s the first DL trip of his career. Further complicating Andrus’ value is his newfound power. Though Andrus jumped up to a career-high 20 home runs last year, that plateau isn’t as special when 116 other players also accomplished it. The result was a 110 wRC+, which contributed to a career-best 4.3 WAR. Andrus’ safest move might be to avoid free agency, and instead convince the Rangers to guarantee his club/vesting option for 2023.
In addition to these ten players, another eight have a good shot at exceeding a $40MM free agent contract: Garrett Richards, Yasmani Grandal, Daniel Murphy, Cody Allen, Andrew McCutchen, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz, and Andrew Miller. Others may very well join that mix as the season progresses. I’ll update these power rankings monthly, and I’m sure they’ll look very different by the time free agency actually begins.
Man, I get that Corbin is young and that’s huge in free agency. But more than Kuechel? I don’t know if I can see that happening.
I think Steve and Jeff agree with you.
Wouldn’t have exactly written good for a laugh on the past predictions Tim. it’s impossible to know how the market will shape out and really.. Who knew the entire FA market would collapse last winter?
I don’t think the entire market collapsed. Guys who signed early got paid, and some, like Santana, got more than predicted.
Well, Keuchel has had some injury concerns, and Corbin seems like he’s reaching some new level this season. But the track record with Keuchel is pretty strong
Corbin’s career ERA+: 105
Keuchel’s: 108.
Keuchel is very over-rated by sports writers and fans, because he won a Cy Young in 2015. But when it comes to stats (which is what GMs use to hand out contracts) he actually compares pretty unfavorably to Arrieta (who won the Cy Young the same year, and pitched more innings, to a better ERA+, since).
So, unless he really turns it on this year, he’s getting less than $100M.
Corbins’ been steadily mediocre, but in a very hitter friendly park. So AL East teams will be interested…so will Arizona, Colorado, and the two Texas teams. If he proves he has upside by delivering his best season this year (he’s on his way, so far), Corbin should beat Keuchel’s deal in total value, if not AAV.
2019 Braves: Harper or Machado or BUST!
No Machado. I could see Harper, but it all depends if he wants to play for Atlanta. He’d hit some monster HR’s to RF though. But, I hope I don’t have to eat crow and begin to cheer for him.
Why not machado? I know he prefers shortstop, but Riley is not the answer at 3rd.
Because people think forming a team with unproven players leads to championships. Why Harper when we have Pache? Why Machado when we have Riley?
How about they have the money, time to spend it instead of spending like a small market team.
They’ve been tanking, you realize that right? Like the Cubs and Astros did, and like many other teams are currently doing. It is part of the strategy, to acquire as much minor league talent as possible and let that talent find it’s way up to the majors. The Cubs weren’t suddenly a small market team when they were tanking, it was a strategy.
Except the Cubs spend when they need to and are ready to. The Braves have the money to invest in top tier talent. Going the cheap route to fill in holes, will not win you squat.
The Astros are an extreme outlier of course but to expect the Braves to suddenly turn the corner like the Astros is just hopeful thinking. There is honestly no excuse not to go for it unless they openly admit, they don’t care about putting the best team on the field.
And they have said that. They litteraly said we are doing what the Astros and cubs did, losing on purpose, taking on bad contracts and trading anyone worthwhile for prospects. This is the published strategy. It’s the same thing the white Sox are doing.
4 years ago Kris Bryant was as proven as Pache and Riley are today.
He was also a much better prospect?
so was Jorge Soler
chesteraarthur with the troll on full blast today
The number of down votes you are getting for your comment are truly disturbing. I want to think my fellow Braves fans are smarter than this. I think your comment has wisdom in it.
I would prefer Machado to Harper because I think Atlanta has many more chances at producing a good outfield than even producing even one all-star caliber 3B. Maybe Riley will become that but he is the only chance the Braves have at it for third base and pinning that much hope on ONE prospect is absolutely stupid. In the outfield the Braves have much more talent. But even in that case to say we don’t need to go after Harper because we have Pache is absolutely insane!!!
I don’t think Atlanta goes after either. The Braves haven’t gone after top tier FA in a long time. This really COULD be to much past experience talking but I just can’t think myself into believing it until I see it.
Before the jankees got Stanton he had every intention of going there. He probably still could go there. Get rid of Ellsbury. Make judge your dh and Stanton and Harper could play the corner spots. Billy McKinley can play center. Unless they got a better option. Sanchez Torres and Mckinnley up the middle C,SS and CF is pretty damn good. Personally I’d rather have Contreras, Baez/Russell and Almora up the middle contreas is already after 2 seasons. The best catcher in the NL and top 3 in all of baseball.
$300-500 million… Such an enormous risk… I just don’t see it happening. They have Acuna, Pache coming, Inciarte signed cheaply. I think if they spend any huge $ it will either be for an ace or to start extending their young players.
Sorry, but we’re not getting either. My guess will be Donaldson (if we’re lucky enough that he’ll take a 4 year or less deal), and Grandal for position players, Miller and Gio (assuming we trade Teheran) for pitchers.
Early predictions
Harper-Cubs
Machado-Phillies
Kershaw-Rangers
Donaldson-Blue Jays
Kimbrel-Red Sox
Corbin-Dodgers
Keuchel-Yankees
Dozier-Mets
Pollack-Nationals
Andrus-Rangers (does not opt out)
Donaldson is going to be displaced by Vlad Jr. I doubt they sign him to a big deal to be a DH.
I’m not sure the Jays see Vlad Jr. as a third baseman long term. That said, it’s unlikely that Donaldson would remain at third for the duration of a long-term contract. The Jays already seem to have indicated (after that game in Texas) that some first base may be in his future.
Time will tell. While teams would love to improve themselves, at what price? Not many will be willing to plunge for both years and AAV. When one signs, that likely will eliminate that team from another high value and teams have to look at their own projected roster. If Boston expects to resign Betts for example, that like takes them out of any every day player like Harper. With Price likely not opting out, their ability to resign Sale will dictate their offers to starting pitching. A mis-read can impact even a large market club at these dollars. You don’t think so? Look at the perfect storm of the Mets. Burned by a couple of signings and/or injuries, the Madoff scandal and add in their cost and interest on their share of CitiField. That was 2009 or so. A long time.
I like that simplyamazin’ put his name on the line and made predictions. Is he right? No. Could I do better? No.
This is 8 to 9 months out and the season has barely begun. Creating a Perfect March Madness bracket is more likely.
I feel sorry for the fans of the two Florida teams. Perhaps MLB should require half of them to go there.
Dodgers would not lose Kershaw and replace him with Corbin. Or at least miss out on Harper/Dozier. They didnt reset the tax to get worse after 2018
Agree on Harper and possibly Keuchel. Phillies won’t get Machado. Sox won’t go 5 years on Kimbrel. They may meet his per-year $$ request but would probably offer 3 years. Dozier and Kershaw will be Dodgers next season.
Agree 100% with this. I see them resigning Kershaw rather easily, with Dozier being their #1 target in free agency next year.
maybe maybe not, I think it will depend on jensen – if he really is in a decline it could give the FO cold feet about extending kershaw – as good as he has been when he has had the nagging back ind is going on to the other side of 30 – there is always the option though that he rides the last 2 years of his contract out considering that unless he feels that he can get a lengthy contract then there is no point as he is unlikely to be making significantly more than the 30mm and some change he will make in the last 2 years.
Dozier to the Mets make sense, but upper management will want to save money and go with in house options like Guillorme, Rivera, Cecchini…
Oh goodness Keuchel without a beard? I also wonder if he’d want to sign with the one team he excels against. On the other hand, there wouldn’t be too many options for the Yankees when it comes to FA starters. Sabathia might retire after this season, leaving an open rotation spot unless Chance Adams/Justus Sheffield is ready or Cessa decides to be good (which he probably won’t).
I don’t see the cubs getting Harper. Too much money, they’ll have trouble staying under the luxury tax.
As a cub fan I like the Harper to cubs prediction
Don’t see Kershaw leaving the Dodgers even if it means playing for his hometown team.. Dodgers will do whatever it takes to make sure he retires in LA.
Alright, I think this guys nuts but his predictions aren’t completely without merit. He might have hit the target a couple of times, albeit in the fashion of shooting at a tree with a shot gun 20 paces away.
Harper–>Cubs: Been suggested more than a few times by the media.
Dodgers–> Don’t sign Kershaw. It’s difficult to see this. He was part of the group that was sent to represent the Dodgers– with Ohtani. He is the icon of Dodgers culture..BUT..there is SOME president. The Dodgers fo isn’t stupid. When Grienke was offered that insane contract by Arizona the Dodgers didn’t offer more. Kershaw is beginning to show the the cracks of long use. Though I think Kershaw can get a strong offer there really is a limit.
Precedent. Not president.
Our President has no precedent.
Harper-Nationals
Machado-Nationals
Corbin-Nationals
Throw in Soto and Robles WS++
The Cubs have no spots for Harper. And they need that half billion for Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez Schwarber and Russell.
1) Harper
2) Machado
P H I L L I E S
They’re not getting Machado. He wants to stay at shortstop, and even then. The Phillies have Franco, and I could even see them move Kingrey to third so they can keep Cesar Hernandez.
It’s an ongoing theme with this guy. Predicting the Phillies sign everyone then trash them on just about everything else,media,owners,fans.
Yea, they could sign Machado to a 7 year deal, and he’ll comment saying how bad that contract will be since he’ll be over 30 by the time the contract is almost over.
“They’re not getting Machado. He wants to stay at shortstop”
What was I thinking? Crawford is a four digit OPS machine.
Silly me.
And Machado is a 4-digit OPS machine? I don’t understand your argument. They have an overloaded infield right now, which is why Kingery is not getting regular playing time, and Crawford has been given a whopping 34 career games to prove himself.
Kershaw is going to leave the Dodgers and sign with the Royals. He will then lead them to win 2 more World Series. I can dream can’t I?
kershaw to marlins
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Any shot at Kimbrel becoming the games first $100M Closer?
If someone offers him 5 years, quite possibly. I don’t know why anyone would make that offer, though. Every time I see a closer being wooed with a huge contract, I get visions of Jonathan Papelbon.
Sox will probably go 3 or maybe 4 with an AAV of $18m. He seems to like Boston and needs to win to be considered amongst the career best. Game has certainly changed. What would Goose have done 1 inning at a time? Really think Kimbrel. Hard to compare Goose, Fingers and Suter in today’s game. Too bad because imagine how valuable a closer that goes multiple innings would be? Imagine a team with that extra every day player or two in the NL. Mastercard type priceless. All these GMs would be trying to find the next one.
What will the Jays do?
“Any shot at Kimbrel becoming the games first $100M Closer?”
Ruben Amaro is a coach.
Machado to the Yankees! Telling yaaah..
Didi
Machado
Judge
Stanton
Sanchez
God have mercy!!
I really don’t think they should go after Machado. They could easily stay under the luxury tax if they don’t sign Machado, and use Torreys, have Andujar take over at third, and put Dury in a super-utility role.
If the Yankees are bent on spending those kinds of dollars next offseason they ought to do it on Clayton Kershaw. A good southpaw usually fares well in Yankee Stadium and Kershaw is the best there is.
thats a smart thought, but please no!
As a sox fan….pleeeeeese
Yanks have the talent not to go Machado
Who do the Yankees have that is better then Machado?
and Kershaw and Harper. trout in 21. q in 19, Boston’s ace in 2020. payroll ~ 400M. meanwhile, reins’s sox, my team, screwed year in year out with a 50M payroll.
Wild bet–the Yankees don’t sign any of the position players They kick the tires, maybe even make a bid or two, but Hal finds he likes being below the luxury tax, and if he’s going over, it’s going to be for pitching.
That would be the smart play. If they aren’t content with the offense they have put together already they never will be.
With the amount of MLB-ready Young prospects? Doesn’t sound that unrealistic.
And to the Indians? Nada.
Correct. Stars are made in Cleveland, and then they go elsewhere. The only FAs CLE might retain next winter will be Chisenhall and Tomlin who won’t likely be pursued by any other team and be willing to sign short term, low AAV contracts.
I see Harper to Philly and Machado to Atlanta
Sigh..I wish. The Braves fan that I am can dream of that. But I doubt the Braves put so much of their resources into that.
The phillies don’t need Harper, they already have too many outfielders on the roster and in the farm, I believe they do get Machado if Franco doesn’t have a turn around year. Then they trade Hernandez and prospects for pitching and bullpen. Then they move Kingery to second. Crawford to third , Machado to short.
Is there a chance Harper gets the $700-800 million contract that was projected to be a possibility a year or so ago?
I doubt even for Harper any team would go that high. I do think 500 million is possible.
“Is there a chance Harper gets the $700-800 million”
If the players had gone on strike yeah. The caps they agreed to buried any idea of Harper seeing $600 million.
Yanks, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs are all out on Harper unless John Middleton refuses to pay Harper what he’s due. At that point all those teams can stretch out the money over 15 years and get in the game and the Phillies come away with nothing while Middleton smirks and buys another mega-mansion or three and a new movie studio for the guy in my avatar.
No chance of $700M+ I never even heard any numbers that high. Everyone likes to talk about how much money he’s going to get, but realistically his ceiling is well below $500M, probably in the $420-$450M range. Anything higher is just too much risk to tie up in one player. His age/projections will likely get him an AAV of $38M-$42M, it’ll just depend on the length.
12 @ 38 hits your upper projection more or less (456 MM) and 10 @ 42 hits the lower number in your range exactly (420 MM). I could see these two getting combined, and Harper clearing 500 with a 12-year, 42 MM AAV deal (that’s 504 MM). That would pretty much be the highest I could see any team going.
No David Price?
Highly doubt he’ll opt out, even if he has a decent season.
That’s a lot of money to walk away from, especially after his lost season.
It’s not lost yet, but after being out 90% of 2017, and underperforming in 2016, he’d be crazy to opt out, even more now that he’ll be out a good 2-3 weeks.
Yeah, I was referring to 2017
What do you mean he will be out a good 2-3 weeks? He’s starting tonight on pretty much regular rest…
I thought he was gonna be out longer. My mistake.
And yet oddly everyone believes Kershaw will walk away from even more.
Kershaw is taking that money. It’s `$33M a year for 2 years. He’s not going to get an AAV higher that with his injuries.
The odds of him opting out are approaching zero
Has time run out on Nelson Cruz, who turns 38 years old in July after the 2017 American League RBI leader averaged 41+ home runs a year over the past four seasons?
Since the start of the 2014 season the Seattle slugger has posted a .286/.358/.549/.907 line with an OPS+ of 147 in 625 games. Over that period Cruz has posted 18,.5 bWAR and 17.0 fWAR, the latter ranking 10th among all American League hitters.
If the Cruz market is as weak as MLB Trade Rumors suggests, the Mariners would be wise to re-sign their clubhouse leader.
I think it’s the age and lack of defensive value that will hold back his value. Teams are definitely getting more cautious about aging curves and with three-man benches having a player with no defensive utility might be harder.
I guess Tim implied that Cruz isn’t a $40MM free agent, but otherwise I don’t think you should read anything into the omission of Cruz.
Look at the deal David Ortiz got at the same general age: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/red-sox-oritz-agree-to-one-year-extension.html
He’ll surely get a big salary if he has a strong season, but it’s hard to see a deal going past two years, especially in a market environment that isn’t valuing pure sluggers as much as it has traditionally.
Seattle has to look at when White will be ready to take over at 1st then are they going to move Vogelbach or Healy into the DH/1st bm role. I think Cruz gets 2 more years here but if he wants to play longer will be someplace else. If White isn’t ready they use Vogelbach as the DH and Healy at 1st.
They can also put Cano in at DH then give him a day off or vice versa. When White is ready one of the two Healy or Vogelbach become trade bait. Vogelbach will have to improve a lot at 1st to keep him or his bat will have to be way better than Healy’s.
Will be interesting to see how fast White moves through the system I think Healy was brought in so they didn’t have to rush him. I also hope they don’t move him to OF we seem to be set there unless a serious injury.
CF A.J. Pollock can move up this list significantly if he can manage to stay healthy for the entire year. He put a 7.2 WAR season in 2015 in his only full MLB campaign to date and is on an early pace to possibly repeat that in 2018. He is an excellent all-around player who can hit for average, power, steal bases and play above average defense at a premium position.
Rays will sign Machado and Harper……..ya, you didn’t think Trump would be president either…….
Hahahahhaha awesome!
Well….when you put it that way, I guess it’s a done deal!
Seattle signs Kershaw and Oprah is our next President.
Brave fan { since 1959 } I just can’t see Atlanta giving a free agent a huge payday after they paid Freeman big money. I see the Braves adding more nominal players, probably pitching.
I could see them signing a veteran guy like Gio Gonzalez or Dallas Keuclel to a deal similar to Arrieta’s.
My (useless and slightly biased) predictions:
Harper – Cubs
Machado – Tigers
Kershaw – Dodgers
Donaldson – White Sox
Kimbrel – Angels
Corbin – Nationals
Keuchel – Astros
Pollock – Nationals
Andrus – Rangers
With all the talent they need to lock up, how are the Cubs going to afford Harper? Just look at the obvious…they sign Harper to a mega deal, what do they give Bryant? They’re pretty much going to have to match or come pretty close to matching Harper’s deal to keep Bryant. And that says nothing of the other young players who helped them win a championship. Unless they’re going to set themselves up to continually blow passed the luxury tax, signing Harper makes little sense. Or they don’t expect to keep Bryant, then the idea of Harper and Bryant playing together is null.
Agreed, and Rizzo won’t be too far off from what those others cost either. Unless, they can somehow unload Heyward’s contract, I don’t see the Cubs signing Harper.
Not to worry. Bryce Harper will have at least two contract opt-outs with his first coming about the time Kris Bryant is eligible for free agency. By then, MLB will have granted Las Vegas a new expansion franchise and both native sons will return and actually be a bigger attraction than Wayne Newton ever was. lol
MLB can’t afford expansion with the Florida franchises and three to four small market teams that claim to barely get by.
Expansion of two teams is guaranteed once the A’s and Rays stadium issues are resolved. MLB needs 32 teams to balance out their leagues and schedule while also helping fix the postseason format that needs to do away with the one and done wild card game. Expansion to two new markets will also be a windfall for the owners with the enormous entry fee paid and also guarantee more jobs for the MLBPA. It will happen sooner rather than later.
I think there will be expansion but I doubt Las Vegas, just because of the gambling issue. Probably a good market for a team though.
With all the problems MLB has with the youth market,poor ratings,the baby boomers aging,financial imbalance,no true commercial stars,it would be irresponsible to add anymore teams.
Las Vegas is a sure bet to receive an expansion franchise with Pete Rose a long-shot to become their first manager!
How would MLB expand anywhere with some of the problems I listed..plus there’s more.
Not sure how Machado is not on the Yankees. They will open the vault for him. And if he doesn’t sign with them, they’ll target Harper next (he’d be first if they hadn’t traded for Stanton).
Yankees aren’t moving Didi so they can overpay Machado. They will focus on pitching with Andrew Miller at the top of the list.
i can see them going for Machado but have a sneaky idea they will really go for the southpaw from LA
unless middleton saves 35-40 for the Halos
Tigers are a few years off from signing marquee free agents.
Kimbrel to the angels would be awesome along with Corbin.
Corbin is 6? I don’t understand how he’s even in the top 10…
Bryce Harper isn’t worth 400-500mil. He has only gotten close to playing a full season once in his career and is a sub .300 hitter. I get that he’s still young AF, but honestly if someone gives him that contract I may stop being a fan of baseball and take up cricket or football.
They need to put a cap on baseball like other sports a hard cap before free agents and there agents like. Boras destroy the game
Agreed. Baseball was always supposed to be the game in which you could pay less than $10 to get a cheap seat. Now the cheap seats fluctuate with who’s coming to town. Example: first week of August Toronto visits Seattle, the cheapest seat is $30. Ridiculous. If baseball wants smaller crowds then they’ll get it after they dole out the first half billion dollar contract and ticket prices reach nfl level.
They price the tickets whatever people are willing to pay.
If that was true, you’d never see empty seats. And Marlins tickets would be free.
It is true. Ticket prices for baseball have risen with the inflation of contracts and cost of new ballparks. All things that hurt fans. Florida has a new stadium that frankly was a horrible investment because I doubt the Marlins will be a team in 20 years or they’ll be asking for a new stadium for some dumb reason. They had to put a nightclub in the ballpark to get people to come because Miami isn’t a baseball city. They should give their tickets away for free.
Miami is barely a Sports City.
I used to think the angels were hoping to get machado, but if he only wants to play short they’ll pass. Early predictions: Harper stays with nationals (i can dream a team with trout harper and ohtani plz) and machado goes to white sox (not sold on anderson on defense) machados a tough one to guess though… And finally, i think kershaw is a dodger for life
also it’ll be really interesting to see if they jays even try to resign donaldson or if they’ll realize they don’t wanna invest in him and maybe trade him at the deadline… Problem with him is that if his injuries continue and he’s a 1B/DH type, so is vladdy Jr in all likelihood so i’m not sure that’s the investment to make
How is sale not on the list isn’t he a free agent at the end if then sorry thought I saw it on here before
Sale has one more year, in addition to 2018 in the form of: 2019 $13.5 million club option which maxes to $16M, if he wins the Cy Young award in 2018.
Cody Allen is the 2nd best reliever that’s up for free agency. Indians would be smart to do what they could to keep their closer.
I just don’t see the mechanics of the market actually running Harper or anyone else to $400-500m at this point. I don’t think there’s enough realistic destinations out there with that kind of money to spend to drive the bidding up to that level.
I remember not long ago asking idly if a team like the Yankees might forego the Harpers and Machados to pursue a pitcher like Kershaw in free agency– and was shouted down by everyone who said “KEEP DREAMING, KERSHAW WILL BE RE-SIGNED TO A LONG-TERM DEAL!”
Now it seems like everyone is accepting the fact that he may test the open market.
I don’t see Andrus opting out. All big, contending teams have a shortstop under contract that they don’t really need to replace. The only teams I see that might be interested in him and could pay him more are the Blue Jays and Orioles, and even those are a stretch.
I wrote a paper in college on how salary distribution percentage to a team’s top 4 highest paid players on the 25-man roster can have a significant impact on a team’s performance. The argument at the time was that spending X-amount on one superstar could be better served amongst 2-3+ mid/upper tier guys who are not deserving of a superstar contract.
A good example of this was the Josh Hamilton sweepstakes in the 2012 offseason going into 2013 when he signed with the Angels. Hamilton signed a 5 year, $125mil contract that year and was the best FA available. That same offseason, the Red Sox signed Shane Victorino (3 years, $39mil), Koji Uehara (1 year, $4.25mil), David Ross (2 years, $6.2mil), Stephen Drew (1 year, $9.5mil), Mike Napoli (3 years, $39mil), Jonny Gomes (2 years, $10mil), and Ryan Dempster (2 years, $26.5mil).
Doing the math out, that’s 7 players for $134.45mil in total commitments as opposed to $125mil for one player. The Red Sox were tied with the Cardinals for the best record in baseball that year and would win the World Series (over the Cardinals) while the Angels went on to be 78-84 and miss the playoffs.
Whoever signs Harper, Kershaw, Machado, etc. is getting a top 2-10 MLB talent not named Mike Trout, yes… but that team will also not be able to address other needs the same way the Red Sox were able to back in 2013.
yeah but theres distribution issues there. A team that can go get Harper for 10/300 can’t go sign the best 10 FA next year at 30M/each. Its not the same thing. You lose quality in the player (in theory).
That’s the point. You lose the superstar quality in the player but replace it with several solid-quality players. The point is to add depth, which brings up the question of importance, depth or quality? In my opinion, over a 162-game schedule plus the playoffs, depth is more important. There are already a plethora of injuries this season and from the example that I mentioned, Hamilton was hurt a few times as well. Sure some of the players the Sox signed became injured (i.e. Dempster) but when you invest $125mil on one player and he’s not in the lineup, the ROI for each game he misses is 0 where as if 1, 2, 3, or even 4 of the players the Red Sox signed gets injured the Red Sox are still receiving a level of production from their investment.
and that Sox team only worked because they already had 3ish star level players + Lester/Buchholz in their rotation.
If the Marlins tried to do that, it would fail since their best player right now is probably Derek Dietrich
Simple… Harper & Machado to the flush Phillies. Trade the spare infield/outfield parts for pitching. They’ve got the money and the prospects. Why not? Go ahead, down vote me as if it matters.
C – Alfaro
1B – Santana
2B – Hernandez
SS – Machado
3B – Kingery
RF – Harper
CF – Herrera/Quinn/Moniak
LF – Hoskins
I just don’t think Harper’s estimate is anywhere near realistic. When MLBTR gets its estimates of new contracts from what the agents’ asking prices are, it’s no wonder when actual offers fall short.
Good thing we don’t do that. Asking prices don’t even exist right now.
Should be an interesting offseason for the Twins. They have Mauers contract coming off the books and Dozier hitting FA. If all it takes is 4/72 for Dozier I would do that in a heartbeat (the comp to Gordon’s deal above) that could go to 80m and people wouldn’t cringe in the twin cities. But the real reason I’m writing this is the fact that the Twins have ZERO guaranteed dollars on payroll past 2019 with a large young controlled nucleus here already or coming. Will they go against tradition and make a splash in this class? Time will tell. As a big fan I would be happy if they just resign Dozier. He’s become the team leader and 4 more years is not a lot. Dream scenario would be convincing him to play 3rd. Sano to 1st. Polanco to 2nd. Nick Gordon comes up to play SS. Then all focus would be pitching.. should be an interesting year and offseason in MN.
I really hope the cardinals can sign Manny Machado. I think it could happen and it would be a huge upgrade at third base over Gyorko and Carpenter. I think the cardinals will at least sign one of those top 10
The average deal for the 48 free agents is over $26 million dollars. I’m not sure the word I would use to describe that would be “grisly.” Even the word “disappointing” seems to be a bit much for what amounts to life changing money for just about anyone. Sometimes I think we need to take a step back and actually consider what a “slap in the face” $5MM contract like Moustakas received would do for you. $5MM is more than the average worker will make in their entire working lifetime. Lots of people would prefer such a “grisly” payday.
I agree with Javier! I think the Cardinals will sign someone like Machado or Donaldson
Harper will re-up with the Nats. Count on it. Nats will go after Corbin, Eovaldi, Keuchel unless they could somehow leverage Kershaw away from the Dodgers. They desperately need lefty with Max hitting age 35 and Strasburg’s long injury history.
Sure y’all can count them out because Mark Lerner and not Ted, the aggressive inventor of the shopping mall, is in charge now. But you never know …