With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.
We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history. He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance. Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers. Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw. Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
- Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark. The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year. Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed. The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward. A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs. But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews. Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats. With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
- Brandon Belt, Giants: No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’ Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position. His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
- Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame. With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.
As a DBacks fan, this offseason is going to be difficult. Either they decide to tear it down and we watch Goldschmidt and others get traded, or they spend every penny they can for a shot in 2019 and severely limit their team in the years that follow
I see it the same way. Seems easier to blow it up, even though they don’t have much on the books for 2019.
I think the Dbacks have a shot next year, there rotation is so underrated I hope they get Corbin back
Agreed. They’ve been tightroping their lack of org depth situation by not trading much, but they’ll really hamstring themselves in the future if they go for it in 2019. It’s a shame they couldn’t pair a competent front office with that core of talent until it was almost too late.
Arizona foolishly overpaid for Greinke 3 years ago, and now it figures to cost them the best position player in club history.
Goldy and Ray could be fits in New York for the Yankees. Goldschmidt is an upgrade at 1B, no offense Luke Voit, and Ray can step into one of the rotation spots that could be vacated by Sabathia or Lynn/Gray.
Why when you can sign harper for just cash and he can play first. Goldy will comand a huge hall even if its only for 1 season. Id like arenado on angels. Fits there long term model, same age as trout and simmons. Trout, arenado, ohtani, simmons, upton core is pretty darn good coupled with a new coach and a few bullpen arms.
Why would Harper want to play 1st? Only way Harper would agree to that over playing RF for a different team is if the Yankees overpay by a HUGE margin
The Angels have no trade commodities to get Arenado.
Yeah they do but then the farm will be back to how it was
I think we can all agree yankee fans are the most annoying
You’re pissing in the wind there skippy.
Yankees fans always expect to sign/ trade for big name stars even after trading for Stanton and the other 20 people they traded for. So annoying being a fan of a team that can’t afford to sign/ trade for big name players.
Such as?
Mccutchen, Lynn, Happ, Britton just to name a few.
So, the Yankees are not allowed to improve in areas of need by trading expendable prospects at the deadline, but the A’s are? Pretty sure the Astros’s traded for a good portion of their rotation and closer. Boston drafted Price, Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz and Kimbrel? The Angels picked up Upton and Simmons hitchhiking one day? The Phillies found Santana and Arietta in a CrackerJack box? Or is it just ok for every other team to sign free agents and trade for talent but the Yankees are evil and other teams should avoid them at all cost?
I agree that so called Yankee fans can be very annoying but I find you Yankee haters even more annoying. I am from New York and love the Yankees and the one player above that I would like to see them persue would be Belt. I think he would do very well in New York and the Yankees have the kind of decent but not all-star caliper prospects it would take to get him.
Btw, it took a lot of work to be able to trade for those “stars”. Plus genius Cashman got them on the cheap. Best GM out there, if only George would’ve listened to him a little more they wouldn’t have had as many payroll issues.
No kidding. They had, what, three potential all-star starting outfielders, two of which are capable of hitting 50 home runs, yet they are always saying they should trade for Arenado (see above) or Machado (though they have fantastic players already at SS and 3rd), and want to add another OF (Harper). Why would you spend $300 million on a player you don’t need when you have a serious need for SP? It’s Monopoly money to them.
Thank you!
The Angels have one of the sorriest farm systems in baseball, and thus zero chance of landing Nolan Arenado.
Sizable return for Belt is funny. He is owed way to much and plays 1B. Not many teams is in need of a 1B and has money to spare. They could get maybe 1 good prospect for him but no boat load.
Belt is probably one concussion away from having to call it a career.
Belt is the perfect candidate for a quantity over quality prospects trade. I would really like to see the Yankees go after him. He would be a good table setter for their thumpers which is what they thought they were getting in Bird. Maybe something like Adams, Garcia and Sauer would get it done. Between the 3 of them they should get at least one decent MLB arm. Sauer and Garcia both could become #3 or better. It’s a bit of an overpay for Belt but he is the missing piece of their lineup and they are rich with RHP prospects with good projections.
I’d much rather take a chance on Voit next season than trade away assets for Belt. And, yes, I know Voit will most likely not be this good again.
1 good and a couple of low A guys maybe. The giants (as a )new GM should recognize) ought to realize that what they need right now is AA or A+ guys to be on the right schedule, their AAA prospects are meh OK in general but if you give suarez and rodriguez year to develop in the bigs you can be looking towards bart, gonzales, ramos hjelle, and a bunch of other interesting guys who are in A+\AA this year and moving up. Pushing for a touted AAA prospect with any trade – unless the guy is a franchise changer won’t really work on the timetable of the guys in the system and might be a little bit of a waste when you could have gotten a couple of guys as good but further down the development line..
Id like to see the Astros make a play for Goldie.
Astros should make a run at Nelson Cruz
Man, I can’t even begin to think how good that team would be with Goldie batting 3rd. Can you imagine how many runs Altuve would score in a season? It just wouldn’t be fair!
Yankees should look at Belt. I know Voit’s been great, but they could use some left handed power. It would make it less impactful when the Red Sox inevitably add tough right handed pitching in the off-season (which they will…they can’t afford to keep sending Price and Rodriguez out to face the Yankees).
If it ain’t pitching, the Yankees don’t need it. They have to replace three of the five starters next year.
Voit has earned the opportunity to play first going forward.
Joe he’s trolling.
I don’t think that’s what trolling is considered
Have you seen the Yankees farm lately? If they sign anyone to pitch it should be a top lefty. They will piece together a rotation next year and wait for the huge influx of RHP prospects they have to start maturing. They need a 1st baseman badly and if they keep Andujar at 3rd they are going to need someone with Belt’s defensive ability at 1st.
Corbin is a lefty as well as Happ. Very good chance the Yankees sign both. CC could also be in the mix. Lefty problem solved.
As far as the infield issue, the current infield has won 100 games this year without Belt. He isn’t necessary and is expensive and injury prone.
LH power is soo wasted in SF. I like belt but would love to see him moved for his sake since LH power just doesn’t play in SF unless you are like bonds who could regularly hit out to center and right- which most guys can’t @ AT&T.
I know we don’t really need him, but Arenado in a Braves uniform is a wonderful thought
I was just thinking, if the Braves offered a package including Camargo would that start the conversation. I know it would take a more but that kind of affordable MLB talent would at least keep the Rox from a huge drop off at 3b.
I might could get behind that, if we could sign him to an extension. I’m not interested in trading Camargo plus Kyle Wright/Gohara/Allard/whoever for a one year rental. The upgrade isn’t significant enough for me
I’m surprised that Bumgardner isn’t on this list.
there is no D in bumgarner’s name.
Me too
Why Bummy not on trade list??!
Giants sign him to supermax contract???
Or maybe Bummy on number six???
You must have taken some good stuff at Woodstock, you still write like you’re zooted out of your skull
why cant I find mad bum and/or posey on this list?
Giants are probably going to compete in 2019, so they’re not going to trade mad bum or posey
They’re gonna what?
Lol
The Rockies are probably going to compete next year, and Arenado is on this list…
Yea I thought the same thing.
Barf
Wtf are you smoking?
That Bobby Evans and sabean thinking giants just two players away from playoffs
Very stupid thinking
Who cares what Evans thinks? He was fired.
Because the Giants will ridiculously think they will compete next year. Also, the fans might riot!
I think most of us giants fans, as much as we love bum have softened on the idea of moving him.
As great as Arenado appears on the surface, I’d be very weary of his home/road splits. One looks like HOF’er and the other looks league average.
I’m hopeful the Angels look into re-acquiring Patrick Corbin. It would make the Dan Haren deal full circle for the Angels, ha.
I think that could be a decent option as richards is slated for fa. They need a couple durable starters combined with a reworked bullpen. Id love to see goldy on angels but thanks to pujols mammoth deal i just dont see that happening.
Anyway angels could get belt? I think that left handed bat paired with ohtanis could fair quiet well too. Hopefully angels can speak with pujols about retirement or working for the team as a hitting coach for remainder of contract.
Arenado in Atlanta would be a nice fit. They have the prospects to get it done. Headline w/ Luis Gohara & Kyle Wright
No thank you not for a 1 yr rental I think it would look more like Camargo & Allard maybe a low level prospect
I don’t want him unless he comes with an extension though we got the money to make that happen
But realistically the Braves need to resign Markakis & move Riley to the OF and let them have a 4 man rotating OF
Then trade for either Realmuto or Sally Perez
Then sign Kimbrell
Camargo is fine as our 3B he proved himself for me this year
I wouldn’t mind MadBum either and would def be following the Giants to see if they are plan on tearing it down if so bring Buster home
Delusional lmao. No way braves get all if any of those free agents. Bigger markets have bigger capital to spend. Best chance is to trade for talent with the draft capital braves have aquired. I also think the market for kimbel will be heavy angels, red sox also need closers and have deep pockets.
Atlanta doesn’t want Kimbrel back. Lots of miles on that arm. Closers should be kept around 3-4 years, IMO, then moved on, and not brought back.
you’re not getting him from CO for Camargo & Allard. Allard looks terrible in the majors, camargo, not sure what the deal w/ most Braves fans is w/ this guy, he’s not some superstar. He’s average at best.
Why would CO trade Arenado for mediocre players? Not going to happen.
4 man starting OF? wtf is this nonsense.
Why not just go ahead and get Kershaw, Trout, Harper & Babe Ruth while you’re at it.
IMO, it is clear the Dbacks should tear it down this winter. Even with an injury plagued down season for the Dodgers they couldn’t overtake them. The snakes aren’t going to win the division next year making their typical tinkering around the edges moves and, at best, they currently only have the resources ($ or minor league capital) to make those types of moves. However, I do not believe ownership will punt on the 2019 season this winter. IMO, they won’t be willing to give up the season ticket $$… they will lock in the season ticket holders and sell off at the deadline. This is an organization that traded Touki Toussaint for about $10M of salary relief, they are cheap. I would guess most Dbacks fans believe the best trade this offseason would be Ken Kendrick for a new wealthier ownership group w/ vision.
Belt is the best defensive first baseman in the sport. If the giants eat his contract they could get an ideal prospect for him, preferrably a pitcher.
Belt – can’t stay on the field
Keep waiting for that monster season where hit rakes 35 110 …. if the guy could play 150 games it could happen / COULD
Trade Belt to the Orioles for Chris Davis and either Cobb or Bundy.. O’s gotta get rid of Davis somehow.
Lmfao what
Check Hosmer if your looking at defense and look at how many more games he’s been on the field
Belt doesn’t have any errors on routine pop-ups to lose the game. Hosmer for defense? You funny guy.
The only first baseman contracts that are worse than Belt’s are Hosmer’s and Davis’s.
Why would any team give up major prospects to rent Arrenado for one year with Machado and Donaldson on the market? I don’t think any of these guys bring back much of a return. Two first basemen, a platoon outfielder and a five inning starter would not make me give up the farm.
Because they lose out on Machado and Donaldson…
or they don’t trust Donaldson…
or Machado wouldn’t play 3B for their team…
This! Only one team can get Machado. Gotta have other options if you lose out…
Goldy would bring back a nice return and I could see. Team like the Cards making a push for Nolan if they lose out on Manny
Wouldn’t Goldy look good in an Astro’s uniform
It wouldn’t even be worth speculating that the Cardinals might acquire any quality impact players such as Arenado, Machado, Goldie, or Harper as long a John “Low Hanging Fruit” Mozeliak is the Cardinals President of Baseball Operations. Very sad but true. If Mozeliak remains in his current capacity, there will no post season play offs for 2019. And……No post season play for the remainder of his current contract. When other teams think of John Mozeliak, they automatically think of the Astros / Cardinals scandal. The other owners just won’t deal with Mozeliak. Mozeliak has to spend over and beyond any other club because other teams know he has to trade or sign a free agent each year to keep his own job.
I think the Cardinals trade Fowler for salary dump, if they do that I have a feeling they could go for Harper seeing how aggressive the Cardinals where for Stanton last offseason. If the rotation stats healthy and they do get Harper the Cardinals chances for playoff baseball is a very good chance.
Who on earth is trading for Dexter Fowler? Like do you people even pay attention to other teams and the trade market. Who is taking on 60 or 70 mil for Corner OF? I’ll wait when you can cite the example from last year.
Yankees took on $240m for a DH/OF.
Brewers also took on almost $60m for an OF.
Probably should have asked who would take on $70m-$80m for a declining, over 30 OF.
Then you probably should have mentioned the Yankees took on the reigning NL MVP who hit almost sixty home runs, or that the Brewers took on an all-star OF who was among the top free agents of the off-season.
Well at the same time you don’t have to give up prospects, and I doubt Fowler is going to repeat next year.
You can doubt it, but realistically look at the age and contract tied to him. Then add onto the fact that he’s a corner OF which again has been devalued. So it doesn’t matter about prospects OFs are easy to find/trade for unless discussing an ability to play above average cf defense, a cheap contract, or some sort of elite offensive skills. Fowler’s on the wrong side of 30 and a corner OF now. If they trade him it’ll be a bad contract swap or at the Cards taking on a significant portion of money.
What the Giants do with Bum will say it all as new younger mgt team takes over if they trade him – it’s on full retool mode… if they pull a 90’s version of Celtics keeping old guys ….. they are doomed for another half decade
Pollack – nice defense but can’t stay healthy
Goldie nice year but bad starts getting deeper into seasons –
Belt – see Pollack nice defense but can’t stay on the field
If the D’Backs still wanna contend and retain Goldy, the only way to do so is to get rid of (trade) Grienke’s contract… maybe even Ketel Marte.
Oakland seems like a match for Ray.
Aren’t the A’s a match for everyone?
not if they have a salary over $5. Otherwise the ownership can’t pocket the rest of the profits.
Yes…..
The ‘clutch’ is such a myth.
Hitting a HR with a runner on base in the 7th inning being up 8 runs against a mop-up pitcher, is just as good as hitting one with a runner on in the bottom of the 9th down by one run to a division rival with their closer on the mound.
Exactly!
I’m tired of ‘clutch’ crap. It’s just not statistically significant. My Twins have the hitter leading all of MLB in batting average with RISP. Guess what… The Twins aren’t going to the playoffs.
“clutch” might be something if it was repeatable, but literally a century of data has shown that it is not a repeatable skill. Guys who have great WPAs one season suck the next and vice versa. Even the guys we think of historically as “clutch” – Jeter, Reggie, Garvey, etc – had season results that vacillated wildly from year to year.
Some humans respond well under extreme pressure…others fold. I have watched people run away from an emergency, freeze and do nothing, or charge in to help with a clear head. It is a thing, even if you cannot make math contain it.
Honestly I don’t see any of these guys getting traded except for Peterson. I could see him as a A’s/Rays kind of OF bat, good on base, platoon guy, does some things well.
Seems more like a fit for the Mariners to me. They seem to love to platoon their OF’s.
I think Frankie reyes has a better chance of moving than franchise icons in arenado and goldschmidt whos teams have ideas of competing.
How did Paul G have a bad start??? He was on fire until injuries did the best of him…any negative makes a story right??? To the future, posts facts before you make a post blog.
Probably because he hovered at or below .200 for most of April, and couldn’t sustain an average above .250 till June. Stop being lazy and look up facts yourself before barrading a guy for literally doing his job.
LOL He said “Pederson having another stellar season”.
What a joke
I doubt Goldy or Arenado are dealt this offseason, I doubt Goldy is dealt at all
So I read the Pederson section and it really didn’t seem to be much in tune with how the Dodgers work. The Dodgers will be experiencing a significant roster crunch. So much so that there will be a a lot of pretty good upper level talent they’ll have to trade or lose for free, some interesting talent. With the Dodgers valuing flexibility and a glutton of OFs along with intriguing power sources in the minors, it seems to reason that Muncy would be one more likely to go. Bellinger isn’t going anywhere. Freese will probably be renewed to spell Turner and fill in against LHP (whether it’s Belli’s struggles or Belli seeing time in the OF again). Which solves a big need bc Dodgers haven’t had that guy really. I look at the roster, and see some interesting decisions to make. In terms of SP depth, injuries that sort of depleted the depth are going to replenish it at the onset of the offseason whether it’s Urias, Santana, Ferguson(in a different sense), and etc.. Seems to me that I can envision a scenario in which guys like Muncy, Wood, & Verdugo are traded along with minor pieces. Gale will be DFAd, I don’t honestly see how Farmer survives the crunch. Especially when it’s clear the Dodgers don’t trust him behind the dish. Ruiz and Santana are no doubt adds, you might see one of Beaty, Joe, or Rios being an add. Along with one or two spots for constant revolving doors as adding around the fringes. All in all the FO won’t trade the boat of prospects in the winter. They like to make significant upgrades at the deadline. And they don’t view non elite RPs having the same value that a guy like Joc has. Let’s face it, he made a significant jump in 16 and was bad in 17. It felt like injuries played a major part in 17. They stuck by him and him being a platoon corner OF doesn’t guarantee getting more value for him than with him.
LA needs to either trade Verdugo now, or clear away some corner outfielders (in order to get him some at bats next season). Despite his comeback this season, I’m sure the club would prefer to move Kemp, but I don’t deem that overly likely, given his contract (even in its last season). Puig is still relatively cheap, capable of some amazing hot streaks, and no longer viewed as a future star (that would likely bring significant return). As you said, Bellinger is going nowhere, particularly when he would seem to be the club’s everyday CF moving forward. That leaves Pederson, but LA isn’t going to give him away for simple bullpen depth or some project starter to come in and compete with Stripling for the #5 spot. This team has depth among rotation options already, with Urias coming back next year, and the guys (Wood, Maeda) who shuttle in and out of the rotation.
Madison Bumgarner belongs on this list. The only commodity a really bad Giants team has left, and even he is not what he was 2 years ago. SF would be wise to move him this offseason, before people start taking a closer look at his last two seasons and decide he’s no longer a staff ace on a contender. The Giants won’t get a thing for Belt, and Buster Posey looks like he’s ready to duplicate Joe Mauer’s late career status as a punchless former star. SF will be in last place next season, unless the Diamondbacks conduct a fire sale. San Diego has a much better farm than the Giants.
Belt is constantly harangued by SOME of the fanbase, mostly those who don’t actually pay attention to the numbers. There are many more of us who recognize him for the incredible value he brings.
“Incredible value” .253/.342/.414 from first base. Feel free to tell us which NL regular first basemen that he’s better than, in your opinion.