This week in baseball blogs…
- The 3rd Man In argues that the Angels must trade Mike Trout this offseason.
- Rox Pile comes up with a few trades centering on Nolan Arenado.
- Chin Music Baseball notes that Marwin Gonzalez’s trip to free agency will be an intriguing one.
- NatsGM (podcast) talks with agent Joshua Kusnick, discussing Brodie Van Wagenen and other topics.
- The Point of Pittsburgh looks at how free agency relates to behavioral economics.
- Call to the Pen (links: 1, 2) asks who will acquire J.T. Realmuto, and takes a look at closers the Phillies could acquire.
- Reviewing the Brew wonders if the Brewers could land Realmuto.
- The Sports Tank pays tribute to the world champion Red Sox.
- Jays From the Couch is encouraged by superstar prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s defensive progress.
- Angels Avenue analyzes the 2018 performance of the Halos’ rotation and looks ahead to 2019.
- MLB & Fantasy Baseball Analyzed has an offseason plan for the Yankees.
- Motor City Bengals offers an early projection of the Tigers’ 25-man roster.
- Tomahawk Take lists five free agents the Braves should pursue.
- Sox On 35th lists a few reasons for optimism regarding Chicago’s rebuild.
- Everything Bluebirds believes the Blue Jays did right by Steve Pearce.
- Stats Swipe argues that the Mets are the most dysfunctional franchise in MLB.
- East Village Times wants the Padres to go after Blue Jays righty Aaron Sanchez.
- PhilliesNation examines Chase Utley’s Hall of Fame case.
- The Giants Cove explains that San Francisco’s next head of baseball operations will walk into a difficult situation.
- Mets Daddy names the worst free-agent signings in club history.
- Notes from the Sally previews the 2019 Asheville Tourists, the Rockies’ South Atlantic League club.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) evaluates Joe Mauer’s playoff legacy, and profiles top Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley.
- Friars On Base lists players the Padres could jettison from their 40-man roster this offseason.
- The K Zone delves into Gabe Kapler’s history.
- Foul Territory (podcast) discusses the World Series, Brett Gardner and Realmuto, among other topics.
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Good thing “third man in” isn’t running the Angels
Trout and Ohtani for Acuna, Freeman, and Soroka. Just curious, who would benefit from that?
Hahah.
The angels would easily win that trade. They would get 6 years of Acuña, 3 years of Freeman, and 6 years of Soroka. WAR Prediction.
Ohtani- Say 4 years because of injury would probably give you around 15 WAR.
Trout- Somewhere around 19 WAR for 2 years.
Acuña- 6yrs probably gives you around 25 WAR (Possibly More)
Freeman- 3 yrs probably gives you around 14 WAR
Soroka- Shoulder Injury, if he’s healthy, he could give you around 12 WAR (Maybe more, but I’ll go low on him)
So the angels would get around 51 WAR, while the braves get around 35.
I know teams don’t really look at WAR when evaluating trades, but that’s how I’m viewing it, since this trade would never happen.
lmao your projections are insanely lopsided on the Braves. Ohtani will pitch again and double that WAR. Acuna could sophomore jinx, Soroka might be a negative war player. So silly to project like that. Only ones you can do are Trout and Freeman.
I think you’re far more unrealistic. You just suggested that Ohtani, who’s not going to be able to pitch must next year coming off of TJ surgery, will average 7 WAR per year, for the next 4 years. Only two guys were over 7 last year. Scherer and deGrom.
Using your logic, it would make sense to trade 6 years of a 1 win player for Paul Goldschmidt (assuming you value him around 6 wins). Doesn’t work that way. You can’t assume WAR works that way….
Hes right on a blended rate. 1x pitching and 3x pitching+Hitting. 7war/yr is fine.
Also, your math is bad. The value of WAR coming out of a single roster spot versus 4 or whatever is much more valuable given that the Angels then get whatever they get out of the 3 other spots they fill while Trout gives you his 10 war goodness.
Terrible trade. Trout is ONLY leaving if he publicly demands a trade, which barring some crazy change in FO commitment isnt happening.
Odd how you say that Ohtani will double the WAR (30) but then you mention that Acuna might have a sophmore jinx and Soroka might be a negative WAR player. You’re assuming that Ohtani won’t struggle at the plate or on the mound. He’s under team control for 5 more years so he would need to average 6 WAR/year. Ohtani is just as likely to be a 15 WAR player until he’s a FA as he is to be a 30 WAR player.
But the OP is also assuming Ohtani will miss a year due to injury and Acuna is only under control for 5 more years.
15 WAR over 4 years would be around 3.75 per year.
Hah. The dude didnt even do a Google serach. The Angels system is top 50% by all account and now top 10 on a few sites. Tbh Connor Byrne, even including Phillies fan-fiction kind of degrades all the other blog posts that at least make an effort to research their writing for like 3 minutes.
I expect more from MLBTR.
It’s a very poorly written article with no research.
Very poor article showing no good reason to trade Trout.
There are many people who want Trout on any team, as long as it’s not the Angels.
Get over your obvious jealousy and hate for the team.
lol, pretty lame article it was
What a terrible package for trout. I’ll never click on that website again
Sorry you pooped your Diapers,I know the truth hurts,he’s gone when becomes a FA
what’s tuesday’s lotto number, god?
Right? Any Trout trade with the Phillies would start with Nola
Nola and Hoskins are the two I would keep too. Trade Kapler though with 10 others for Trout lol
I actually think the Cubs could get Trout. Trout for Almora, Chatwood, prospects Zagunis, Alzolay, Lange
lmao no Bryant no deal.
A lot of Cubs are underrated because of their “down” 95 win season. Almora is a still rising player who was hitting .300 most the season and is gold glove quality. Chatwood, if given the opportunity is a big bounce-back candidate, possible mid-rotation arm. Zagunis, is a major league ready prospect who could become a slightly above average starting OF, Alzolay and Lange are prospects with top of the rotation potential.
What a donk. All these trades are so lopsided in the favor of your teams. If you ever trade him, which no to would if he was on your team, you have to package a current major mlb player with potential, and at least 2 number one draft picks and more to get him. So only teams that have picks and want to unload a top talent major player who’s team is almost in a win now would do it. Let’s say a team like diamondbacks had him. And they can’t quite make the playoffs or advance. Would they trade him? You have to look at incentives. The angels are going to trade their biggest draw to attend games to see arguably the best player in baseball? What incentive does trout have to demand a trade to any team? I’m sure he likes his life in SoCal. It’s where players come to retire. Ask pujols
and I’m sure they will lament your departure
That’s an extremely good package for him. 1 perennial all-star in his prime, one of the brightest young stars in the majors and a promising front of rotation starter.
Chatwood, no thanks he would make any pitching staff worst…
are you referring to chatwood as the promising young starter? you do realize the angels had him at one point and traded him for Chris Ianetta. why would they want him as one of the headlining pieces of a Mike Trout trade.
Gnats should have traded Harper and the Angels should trade Trout.
Trout for Aaron Judge and 2-3 prospects: who says no?
angels. judge tailed off.
That “tailing off” is called a fastball to the wrist”. Even with missing 50 games he still had a 5 WAR season. As great as Trout is he’s a free agent in 2 years. Yanks are not going to give up Judge knowing they’d have to SD he’ll out a likely 10/$400 mil to keep him. That said, I don’t see a match.
I think any thing the Yankees offer would have to start at Torres or Andujar, Judge only has 2 more years of control than Trout, Yankees may be willing to give up more control on the infielders with expectation of being able to sign Trout long term.
The Yankees were all set to nail down Trout in the draft before the Angels took him. What that would have been….the next Mr.Yankee in the Dimaggio/Mantle mold.
Mariners scouts had him #2 in their draft board but then Jack Z talked them out of it to take Dustin Ackley. That’s baseball!
Depends on the prospects.
It would take franchise altering prospects the likes we’ve probably never seen in a trade.
The Cardinals trade for Arenado is just laughable. One year of him for five years of control over Carlos Martinez and then three guys who aren’t even at arb. in Carson Kelley, Luke Weaver, and Delvin Perez? Really? Maybe if Arenado were five years younger with the five years of additional control this make sense, but really?
it it laughable but even more so to what the Mets only had to give up
Ya, these trade suggestions are all over the map, you are exactly right
The trades for Arenado seem like overpays for only 1 year of control with a potential salary of 25m+.
I really think Marwin is the most underrated player in this free agent class. 4 or 5 years at 13-15 million per season is great value for a guy that can do anything.
Like A.J. Hinch says about him “If I have a question, Marwin is always the answer.”
Can’t believe the Astros are gonna let him walk.
Agreed, he’s going to be really undervalued for some reason, when his skillset is at peak value. I’m not sure he gets that deal but whoever gets him is getting a gem who plays everywhere and plays well.
One of the biggest reasons the Angels won’t trade Trout is how much he would cost. If Realmuto would cost 1 top 50 prospect and 2 top 100, I can’t even imagine what Trout would take. It’s not that I think it would be an overpay it’s just that I don’t know if any team would pay it.
I’m not sure if this was posted yet but Yankees are out on Harper
No they’re not. That was a rumor with no credible source and even if true means nothing. It’s simply smart business to act uninterested.
“They’re stuck in purgatory with a roster filled with expensive and aging veterans. They also feature one of the worst farm systems in baseball.”
These two statements alone tell me this “columnist” hasn’t followed the Angels for a few years.
They have only five non-arbitration players other than Trout under contract for ’19. Pujols is the only one that really fits that description. The others, when healthy, can be fine productive players. Simmons, Upton, Calhoun, and Cozart. So Trout is hardly “surrounded” by “aging” veterans.
The other part, about the farm system might have been true 2 years ago, but it’s not the case now. MiLB.com had them ranked #9 (this included Ohtani), BleacherReport had them ranked #14 post-season, Again, hardly “one of the worst”.
Clueless.
I wouldn’t get too worked up about a blog writer – anybody can buy a domain name – or even do a free blog somewhere – and there’s not exactly any filter about any qualifications to write about anything. There’s lots of terrible, uninformed blogs out there about any subject you could find, especially with sports and politics. MLBTR is just an aggregator, for the most part – they’re just scouring the web for baseball content and letting baseball fans decide what they want to read and what they want to believe. The internet, obviously, isn’t always true and it isn’t always written by people with any kind of insight or knowledge or even writing skills. I mean, there’s dozens, if not hundreds of websites, dedicated to the idea that the Earth is flat.
Since apparently the Rickets would rather line their pockets again and one World Series was enough, I think the Cards should be in on Machado or Harper. They can own the division again for years.
they should but they won’t, I honestly don’t even think they will get Donaldson.
Why are the Cub fans that run this site so sensitive about the Addison Russell comments?
If they were Cub fans they would allow it, I don’t want him anymore
Living in south jersey now and seeing what I do in regards to mike Trout it is inevitable he will be signing with the Phillies he is truly all about the Philly sport teams if the Angels were smart they would just trade him there and get it over with while the prospect return would be its highest
PR ramifications….but good baseball would say you’re atleast the 3rd best team in your own division and the chance to cash in Trout for a devastating level of prospects says make that move.
Yeah, I think you’re missing out on who Trout is.
He is closely aligned with his family and clearly enjoys his off-season away from the job. He literally leaves his job behind in California and spends his winters in Millville.
If he signed with the Phillies, there would be no “getting away from the job”, since he would be living among the Phillies fans. He has the best of all worlds, playing in a great climate in front of a loyal fan base (3M a year for last 16 seasons), then leaving it behind to be just Mike with his friends and family during the Eagles/hunting/holiday season.
Don’t be surprised if Trout signs an extension with the Angels, taking him well beyond 2020.
The Padres plan to acquire Aaron Sanchez is pretty intriguing.
But what if
Padres get Troy Tulowiski, Brandon Drury, Richard Urena
Blue Jays get Wil Myers, Luis Perdomo, Miguel Diaz, Brett Kennedy.
Its essentially a salary dump move. Padres get out from under Myers contract, clear 40 man spots, pick up a 3B SS flier in Drury and Urena.
Blue Jays can trade Smoak, put Myers at 1st, pick up some pitching
I would do that move in a heartbeat as a Padres fan.
The next few years of Myers’ deal would make this a hard no. Jays are dealing Smoak and not getting a 1B in-return. The plan is to deal him for arms or young OFs.
The trout article is asinine lol clearly a homer wrote it. Angels farm was 15 last year and now creeping in top 10, people really want to see trout traded but thankfully neither trout or angels feels this way at this current junction. Trout loves his home in hermosa and just because somone grew up somewhere doesnt mean he cant and doesnt go back in offseason. This narrative is annoying and im not even and angels fan lol.
from a pure baseball standpoint, the Trout predicament is nothing new; crappy teams with ONE star player inevitably have a difficult decision to make–keep the majority of fans happy by keeping the Super Star, or make the baseball move and extract the most value from him in a trade. With Trout, yea, it is a tough pill to swallow, but the writing is on the wall: this team is not currently constructed, nor will it be by Opening Day 2019, to beat Houston nor Oakland in a push to the playoffs. Yea, he may love his home in Hermosa I’m sure, but how much longer do you think he’s satisfied playing for a losing team? Trade him now and get value, or just wallow in mediocrity for two years and get nothing for him when he hits FA. I think the Angels will probably do the latter, which I’m sure the fans are fine with.
Ahh, TRout is a generational talent; by the time he finishes career he’s going to be one of the best players of all time, if not the best. Just a cursory glance of the top-10 players of all time (by bWAR) shows only four of them switched teams mid -career – Bonds, Speaker, Hornsby and Collins. Bonds was obviously free-agency driven, and the other three were turn of the century guys and baseball economics were very different than they are now. The other top-10 all time players palyed their careers with one team or mostly one team – Ruth obviously started with Boston but became *Babe Ruth* with the Yankees, Mays was a Giant, Cobb was a Tiger, Aaron was a Brave, Wagner with the Pirates, Musial was a Cardinal….unless Trout just really wants to get out, I think he’s going to be an Angel for life.
Yeah he loves it in Hermosa but he is at countless Philly sport teams home games (Flyers, Sixers, & Eagles) He has season tix to Eagles he is at every home game and could be found tailgating in every home game family had the tickets for years supposedly
Also has been said to have told ppl down here he hates that his family has to stay up so late to have to watch him play and he hates the traffic out there
Also hates the pizza and a lot more of the food options
I do a ton of work in Millville which is his hometown and Vineland which is a bigger town next door although still small and ppl I deal with that know him and a couple that actually grew up with him and are still in regular contact with him all say he will be coming home soon and he has no desire to be the highest paid player it’s just always been his dream to play for the Phillies even more than his dream just to make it to the majors from what everybody says that I ask down there they all say the same thing he is a philly sport fan through & through
I understand he might like the Northeast, but if everything you wrote is the case then why did Trout already give up his first four free-agent years to stay with LA? It would seem he’d have jumped at the first chance to play somewhere else (after the 2016 season) Instead, he signed an extension that kept him in LA when he could have left.
he was at the lakers and ducks, too!
Well put 3rd Man. This is over due. The Angels are going nowhere fast.
Honestly, how much do you guys vet these blogs for realistic content?
I’ve read some good stuff through here over the years, but 90% of it’s hot garbage.
Carlos Martinez (under contract for 5 years, plus Kelly, plus Weaver, plus Perez, for one year or Arenado?
Trout and Ohtani to the Angels in a Freeman and Acuna swap?
What free agents should the Braves pursue? Proceeds to name the best free agents available on the market … lol
I’m just curious if you guys are just giving us content to read, or if you read these things yourselves and find them valid
I don’t think it’s the job of an aggregator to vet content – they’re presenting it. Blogs are opinion. I honestly didn’t read this guy’s blog because it sounds like bad takes, but it’s just opinion. The internet is full of bad opinions and bad takes and even fake information, and if aggregator websites were tasked with verifying evry bit of information in every blog or picking and choosing what content is “worthy” to be linked to, they would be doing a disservice to their readers. They are presenting information for the reader to decide to read or not, or believe or not., just like pretty much most websites that aggregate content do.
MLBTR is not responsible for the content, but raving lunatics like the 3rd man site are Hazmat sites. No reason to link anyone to the rantings of the uninformed. To do so makes all the other links similarly suspect.
I think to most discerning readers we can figure out the bad, uninformed blogs pretty quickly from the worthy ones. Bad writing is obviously the first giveaway, or when people use the word “we” to refer to the team they follow (“we just need a couple starting pitchers…” etc.), or when they only cite a couple stats to value a player. BVut usually the writing is the dead giveaway. Because most blogs about baseball that are run by fans have no editing, it becomes quickly apparent when a blog isn’t going to have any interesting information or illumination. Blogs are just opinions. I only ever click on a handful of the links, on topics I find interesting. Sometimes they’re great, well-written blogs and sometimes they’re really lousy, much more passion than smarts. But I don’t blame an aggregator for sending me there; MLBTR doesn’t claim this is the “best of the baseball internet” or anything – they are linking to blogs that cover as many teams or issues as they can find, and there’s going to be a few poorly-written/researched or bad takes in any batch of opinions.
Yup. These blogs are just written by the same people who troll and comment unrealistic lopsided dreams and fantasies in this very site. Basically they spent more time typing at the computer than I did typing this comment on the pooper
All this talk about Trout led me to his B-R page to marvel at his career so far. Some highlights:
In 7 full seasons, Trout is already 144th in baseball history in bWAR, ahead of dozens of Hall of Famers, a couple wins behind Kershaw and tied with Halladay. In 7 seasons.
Trout turned 27 in August
The average HoF player’s “Black Ink” score (the number of times he led the league in a category) is 27. Trout’s is 30.
Trout’s “Most comparable players” through age 26: F Robinson, Griffey, Mantle, Aaron, Cabrera, Cepeda, Ott, Mathews, Jones, Pujols. Interesting list, only because it includes a few players who trailed off badly after age-30 (Cepeda, Jones, Ott only had one good post-30 season). Trout has a different skillset than those guys though, but it is an interesting thing to note.
It is amazing to me that people still don’t see him as the best player to ever play the game. When he calls it quits and is finished tearing up this league, his numbers are going to seem unreachable for a long, long time.
I really don’t think Trout wants for any acclaim. He is widely regarded as the best right now. As for all-time, just needs a few more years. No worries.