The Phillies and Diamondbacks had recent talks about a trade centered around Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic, but talks crumbled when the Phils tried to include Carlos Santana in the deal. Right-hander Zach Eflin was one of multiple younger players discussed as part of a potential return for Arizona, per Stark.
It’s somewhat of a surprise to see the Phils linked to Goldschmidt. A significant driving factor behind Philadelphia’s effort to move Santana, after all, is to open at-bats for Rhys Hoskins to return to first base. Acquiring Goldschmidt would likely mean that Hoskins would remain in left field, where he ranked as one of the game’s worst defenders at any position. Then again, the Phillies are known to be casting a wide net in an effort to improve at virtually any area of the roster, and plugging Goldschmidt in at first base would make for an immensely improved lineup, even if it meant another year of Hoskins in left field.
Goldschmidt, 31, enjoyed yet another brilliant season in 2018, hitting .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles and five triples. Perennially one of the game’s premier bats, Goldschmidt is owed $14.5MM in 2019 before he’ll reach the open market and become a free agent for the first time in his career next winter. That lack of club control, the presumably enormous cost of an extension and a crowded Diamondbacks payroll have all combined to create the possibility that Arizona moves the face of its franchise this winter.
Turning to another potential suitor, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cards have talked to the D-backs about a trade for Goldschimdt. As Goold explores in great detail, the slugger checks several boxes — the Cards prefer to trade for a bat rather than sign one and are especially interested in corner infielders — but there are question marks as well. He’d only add to a deluge of right-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup, for example, and there is of course no guarantee he’d be willing to sign an extension — something the Cards would be likely to pursue.
While Goldschmidt is the best player the D-backs could move this winter, he’s hardly the only high-profile candidate to change hands. Zack Greinke, too, has emerged as a potential trade candidate, though circumstances surrounding the two are quite different. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the D-backs want young players or prospects back in any Goldschmidt deal — hence the mention of Eflin in Stark’s report — the primary motivation in trading Greinke would be to escape the burden of the three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract (which includes his annual salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts as part of an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out evenly over the duration of the contract). Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract is the largest ever in terms of average annual value and was signed by the previous front-office regime in Arizona. At 35 years of age, the right-hander is still a highly effective pitcher, but it’s understandable that as payroll has risen beyond the organization’s comfort level, the new-look front office is hoping to unload some of that financial burden.
It’s natural to suggest that the D-backs could try to kill two birds with one stone by trading Goldschmidt and Greinke in one franchise-altering blockbuster. Attaching a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber to Greinke’s contract would hold appeal for an acquiring team, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that the D-backs aren’t interested in watering down a return on Goldschmidt by packaging him with Greinke. Rosenthal, in fact, notes that Cardinals already had internal discussions about attempting a trade to acquire both, but they’re cognizant of the fact that they’re on Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Goold tweets that the Cardinals’ inclusion on Greinke’s no-trade list is tied to geographic preferences.
It should be pointed out, too, that while Greinke’s contract is somewhat onerous, it’s not the albatross that many might think. The veteran righty has topped 200 innings in consecutive seasons with virtually identical ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 to go along with above-average strikeout rates, elite control and solid ground-ball tendencies. Were he a free agent, Greinke would still command significant interest on a multi-year deal and would likely be regarded alongside the likes of Dallas Keuchel as perhaps the second or third-best arm available.
He likely wouldn’t top $100MM in total guarantees, but there’s a very real argument that Greinke command $20MM+ annually on a three-year deal — as Jake Arrieta did last winter. Arrieta, of course, was a three years younger at the time than Greinke is now, but he was also coming off a worse season. And given the fact that the soon-to-be 39-year-old Rich Hill is entering the third season of a three-year free-agent contract, there’s recent precedent of a pitcher in his mid-to-late 30s securing a three-year guarantee. The exact valuation of Greinke will vary from team to team, but his contract may “only” an overpay of around $30-35MM relative to what he could realistically seek on the open market.
The point regarding Greinke is that the comps are guys who only cost money. So if AZ wanted to pay down Greinke to $75M, and then get nothing in return, then he’s a comp for some of the guys in the marketplace.
Exactly
My only disagreement with this is that if Grienke were a free agent at 35yo and diminished velocity his market value would not be 75 million or close to it. Especially with the fact that how does his past season translate in for example the AL East?
Why is it all about velocity?
Why is it all about the AL East?
That’s the whole point – his value WOULD be close to 3/$75M. Could even be more. Not every team is going to throw that kind of money around but Greinke will definitely be valued that way by many teams.
Outside of an injury-shortened season in 2016, Greinke has been posting WAR’s above 3.4fWAR since 2008. He’s coming off a 3.5fWAR year, the year before was even better at 5.1fWAR. In FA dollars, a win is going for $8-9M. To justify $25M/year he just has put up 2.5fWAR. He’s a solid bet to do that and more. 3/$75M feels like the lower end of his market.
And his velocity … it’s been decreasing, for awhile. Greinke is a smart pitcher and has learned to adapt as his physical skills erode. No one is expecting an 8 win season. But he showed two years ago that he can still post 5+ win season even with decreased velocity.
Realistically, if a team were to acquire both AND the Diamondbacks didn’t want to take on any money, I’d put the surplus value at around $10-20M dollars. You are getting a ton of surplus for Goldschmidt. You also get the value of a comp pick along with the chance to exclusively negotiate with him on an extension. You then take a hit on the Greinke contract. Diamondback fans are probably going to be disappointed in the talent coming back but freeing up $45-50M in 2019 is huge + you get a few decent prospects back.
When the Dodgers were making their also-ran play to keep Grienke, Rick Honeycutt weighed in with the opinion that Grienke was the kind of pitcher who could remain effective well into his 30s. Honeycutt knows pitchers.
Adding Goldy to the Cards’lineup would move Carp to third, a position he is better at anyway and allow Gyroko to be a late innings replacement and inserted against tough lefties. It would be paramont that the Cards add a lefty impact bat in right field.
Cards will suck with or without and Goldy at best they will finish 3rd or 4th place in central division.
The cubs are in the decline. The Cards are on the rise.
Hello? Carpenter is awful at third … one of the worst in the game. They moved him to first to avoid him playing there.
He isn’t terrible at third. You haven’t seen him play first on a daily basis. The Cards defense would improve with a Goldy first baseman. Ok on the left side, outstanding on the right, and among the best behind the plate and in center. But they must add a lefty impact bat in right.
Check the defensive metrics. Carpenter is actually slightly above average. The fact that he throws like a girl makes people think he can’t field the position of 3rd base.
Why are the Cards scared that he would extend? There was no guarantee Holiday would stay. High risk for high rewards. Plays a play like Goldi would love playing in STLs market.
Wouldn’t*
The Cardinals are in a different spot they had Pujols then and really all kinds of veteran talent. Goldy won’t come cheap and I think they are looking hard for a cornerstone guy if he doesn’t resign it’ll hurt. But I do get your point. You can’t keep passing on the free agent market and then hoard your prospects. Sometimes you gotta go get someone.
A combo of Goldschmidt and Greinke might be attractive to the acquiring team but you would have to give up too much when you factor in the financial commitment too.
Phillies:
A ship w/o a rudder
you’re without a rudder.
Pink,
omg, you are killing me today bro!!
Your name is an oxymoron
Emphasis on the moron part
Astros would make the most sense for Goldy
Grienke, Goldy and maybe $10mil to the Dodgers for Kemp, Verdugo and a prospect that isn’t a catcher. Yes, I know 0% chance of this in reality, but it makes some sense…
Actually, no it doesn’t. The Dodgers don’t have a need for either starting pitching or 1B, and they aren’t giving up Verdugo.
Bellinger can play center and Muncy can play second. Plus they’d only have Goldy for one year. And if they haven’t started Verdugo yet I doubt they ever will. From the All-Star break on when Kemp went south, they played an endless rotation in left field when they could’ve given Verdugo the every day job to see what he’s got.
Not sure we’d really like to see Muncy at 2B, where he’s hardly a defensive asset. Bellinger is already mostly playing CF and Muncy mainly at 1B. The other part of my point is I can’t see the Dodgers prioritizing starting pitching this offseason, especially considering what we’ve heard about their payroll plans. Their needs are 2B, C, and bullpen.
I don’t know when Verdugo gets a chance but with at least two outfielders being gone after this coming year, I think it’s sooner rather than later.
Here’s the logic with that:
If Grienke contract is only a 35 million overpay just say that’s the hard factual number. Why wouldn’t a trade such as Elsbury 47 plus 15 million sent from the Yanks to cover the difference plus a few top twenty prospects be a realistic possibility if both WAIVE NYC? Is it soo ridiculous like many high IQ MLB commenters insist it is?
Elsbury would have to agree to waive his NTC to go to Arizona and since he has the medical insurance built in as a team security in case he misses extended time again which is pretty common with him this isn’t unrealistic if Arizona wants to save money!
The real question is would Grienke waive which he probably wouldn’t but if he did then would a 35yo with a diminishing fastball in the AL east with banbox stadiums be able to pitch as good or close to what he did last season? I doubt it!
billysbballz it makes no sense because the Diamondbacks are trying to shed as much salary as possible. Their goal isn’t to take back the Yankees garbage and part with a clearly superior player all while only making a marginal payroll dent.
By including Ellsbury he is saying that he will probably just be injured and the D-Backs can collect the insurance on his contract. I doubt they would go for something like that when they can make a trade somewhere else that doesn’t have the “ifs” attached that would bring back the same prospect value. My fellow Yankee fans need to accept the fact that after the Paxson trade the Yankees now have a bottom 10 farm. They still have a ton of depth but that is mostly in RHP. There might be an all-star buried in there somewhere but he will be pretty far from MLB ready. I have seen Florial play and I think they should trade him while his value is high. He has the tools but I don’t think he comes close to his projected ceiling.
I think there is a remote possibility that the Dbacks would take Ellsbury in a trade for Greinke. The reason there is a sliver of a chance is that Ellsbury is a CF, and that is a position of need for the Dbacks. So, first of all, the Dbacks could Either try to unload as much of Greinke’s salary as possible OR they might consider reallocating Greinke’s huge salary to several positions of need. If they could get part time health from Ellsbury and platoon him with a cheap right handed bat, they might consider taking Ellsbury…but only if they could get one or two starting pitchers and a catcher in return.
That is why I’ve suggested a trade with the Yankees-Greinke, Chris Owings and Alex Avila for Ellsbury, Gray, Sanchez and Abreu. Owings is a fill in for injured Didi at SS. Avila replaces Sanchez. Greinke is a desperately needed Ace for the Yankees.
Dbacks take a chance on getting some health from CF Ellsbury, get a catcher and two starting pitchers. In 2019, Dbacks send $45M to Yankees, Yankees send back $31M. In 2020, Yankees have Greinke’s $35M contract and Dbacks have Ellsbury’s $21M contract. And in 2021, Yankees have Greinke’s $35M contract and Dbacks have Ellsbury’s $5M buyout. So Dbacks save $14M, plus $14M, plus $30M, for a total of $58M. Yankees have multiple big contracts coming off the books by 2021, and in the meantime have an Ace for 3 years, the first two of those years at the bargain basement cost of $14M per.
Gray lol
Wait did you add GARY Sanchez in that deal???
You are a Diamondback fan obviously because no sane Yankee fan would do that deal.
THE Gary Sanchez? The guy who hit .186 with a WAR of 1.2? One of the worst defensive catchers in the game
That Gary Sanchez?
Ellsbury is lucky to be replacement level….Grienke is a front of the rotation workhorse. Typical Yankees spare parts for a legit piece trade proposal.
The “watering down” comment is a little strange. Packaging both players together doesn’t change the market value of either one alone. If they trade Grienke without someone of value attached they will have to pay his contract down with cash.
Saying it would be “watered down” is completely accurate; you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
If a team took Grienke off the Diamondbacks’ hands, it wouldn’t be as interested in paying full value for Goldschmidt. They’d be better served trading them separately to get mainly salary relief for Grienke and a good package for Goldy.
This makes no economic sense. Their market value individually doesn’t change either way. The only way this potentially makes sense is if the D’backs are prepared to pay down Grienke’s contract to where they don’t have to throw in a player of value that might be represented by Goldschmidt (or someone else).
I’m not sure that I follow. Let’s assume the following assumptions.
Greinke = (-$15M)
Goldschmidt = +25M
Net = +$10M
If you package them together you are looking for a deal that either lands you $10M in surplus prospects or money. If you want more prospects, the DBacks send in cash. If the DBacks prefer the cash, they reduce their prospect ask and require more money coming their way.
If you split them apart the math works out the same way. Goldschmidt alone brings you cash/prospects. Greinke alone would require the DBacks SEND cash or prospects.
At the end of the day the values are the values and shouldn’t change based off whether they are packaged together or not. The only question becomes is whether it is easier to dispose of both options individually or separately while maximizing the return. I suspect that it will be hard to do that in a package deal. The odds of finding a team that has a need AND values both players in line with what the DBacks sees is pretty low..
Those are reasonable numbers for discussion purposes. Consider if the D’backs packaged the two together with the $15M you are saying they’d need to throw in to neutralize Grienke’s contract. They would still have the excess value of $10M in Goldschmidt to use for bargaining against a prospect return. You are right that it might be difficult to find a team that can use both of them, but it is an option for the right situation. The point on which I think we agree is that combining them into one trade doesn’t “dilute” Goldschmidt’s value any further than the D’backs chose to dilute it.
He is saying the attaching Greinke and his entire contract to Goldy would lessen (water down) the return they would receive for Goldschmidt alone. Arizona is banking on a Goldschmidt trade to restock their farm a bit. Packaging them together would save quite a bit of money but wouldn’t help with their lack of prospects. I know Holzen probably wanted to win right away when he became GM but he should have started the rebuild last year when he had more assets to trade. Plus players like Goldy and Bradley had more team control. Corbin and Pollack would have brought back decent prospects.
The Phillies’ apparent obsession with first basemen doesn’t make any sense to me. I get wanting to deepen the lineup, but the “defense” Hoskins played in left is the a big reason they’re trying to get rid of Santana. Adding another first baseman to the mix doesn’t make any sense at all, nor did trading for Justin Bour or even Jose Bautista last season.
I don’t know if Klentak realizes this, but hitters have to play defense too. I think he went to the Jack Zduriencik school of player acquisition.
Michael Chaney the interest in Goldy only makes sense to me if they are thinking of using Hoskins as a package headliner for a huge trade.
There would be one trade in which the Phillies would include Hoskins and that would be a remote possibility. I don’t mention the player for fear of being laughed off this board. Klentak should take note that a Philadelphia GM who’s arguably had more success was fired today.
Who was fired?
Oh, Flyers. Duh
The Phils are a joke.
They dart around like an untrained dog that gets a new scent.
The front office has no plan or direction it wants to head in. The Mariners, Padres, White Sox and others are in that bunch, But the Phils are the worst. Comic relief.
As a Cardinals fan I would say yes to Goldy and stay far away from Grienke.
Packaging Greinke and Goldschmidt makes zero sense for the Dbacks. As one commenter said here, there are virtually zero teams that can afford both AND have a need at both positions. I can think of one team, the Yankees, that could conceivably dabble in that market.
Frankly, I think Hazen is smart to say that he is dangling Goldschmidt, but if you go back to his original comments, you’ll see that unless there is an overwhelming overpay, Goldy isn’t going anywhere. But the Dbacks would like very much to unload most or all of Greinke’s contract, so a Greinke trade is almost certain. The advantage of dangling Goldy out there is to get multiple teams talking to the Dbacks, to enhance their chances of moving Greinke. Hazen has already stated that he has multiple suitors for Greinke. Don’t think the offers have been close to what Hazen wants, but he’s hoping for a bit of a bidding war to get a better offer. Makes sense, because Greinke is the 2nd or 3rd best starting pitcher on the market this off-season, including free agency and trades, so when certain other dominoes fall, there are still going to be multiple teams in the market for top of the rotation arms.
It’s pretty clear that the PHI front office has decided that getting rid of Santana is top priority this winter if not mandatory. Does the possibility exist that if they can’t find a taker they’d just eat the remaining 2 years and cut Santana loose?
Its sad that Klentak et al have to expend so much energy to correct a mistake that never should have been.
Hot take: Mets should deal Wheeler and a minor league starter like Anthony Kay for the entirety of the Greinke contract and Yoshihisa Hirano. If the Mets trade Syndergaard, the team will have the assurance of three years of a co-ace for (the soon-to-be-extended) deGrom. I don’t think the Mets will get much more value for Keuchel or Eovaldi and I think Greinke is probably a better pitcher than those two.
If the Mets behaved like a big market team I could see the Mets taking on most/all of his contract, but they run their club like the Royals, so there is less than zero percent chance they take on that contract. They also wouldn’t trade Wheeler from their SP bc they are already thin and they have expressed an interest in extending him. I think Wheeler puts up low 3’s this year and positions himself for a big payday.
Angels? Greinke? Maybe sign Corbin? We’ll probably just stand pat and sign a bunch of number 3/4 starters and finish .500 again.
Larry 48 is a moron even on Mars.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch stated on MLB Radio that the Cardinals OWNERS are putting pressure on the front office to acquire a true impact All Star type player this off season. I guess they are getting tired of John Mozeliak too.
Greinke to the Yankees, along with SS Chris Owings for Sonny Gray, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Medina and Matt Sauer.
Gray lol
More Yankee spare parts for a legit front of the rotation horse.
Adding Goldschmidt doesn’t make the Phillies better. I love Goldschmidt. He is a great player, but he is not what the Phillies need. They need to move Hoskins back to 1st, where he is better defensively. They need either a shortstop or a 3rd baseman or both & they need to beef up their pitching. Eflin was probably their 2nd best starter last season. Subtracting him from the rotation creates another hole. The Phils need to actually focus on their holes & not add to a position they already have a surplus at
Goldy and greinke to angels for pujols and jamie barria and either griffin canning (comp is young greinke) and or brandon marsh. Two high end prospect a solid four in barria and and aging pujols to offset the dollars owed to both greinke and goldy.
The Brewers should go after them, Greinke was beloved in MIL and Goldy would be perfect in the middle of that lineup. Something like Greinke/Goldy/30M for Aguilar/F. Peralta/D. Santana/A. Houser should be enough. Aguilar had a terrific couple of months, but wasn’t consistent enough towards the end of the season to depend on next season. All 4 players heading to ARZ are MLB ready and would be great for a fringe team like ARZ who are trying to fill holes. Also Shaw can play first in 2020 after Goldy leaves
As a phan, when I read the Phillies were linked to PG, I had to check the calendar to see if it was April 1st…WTH is Klentak thinking or should I say smoking?
Really?
The Braves should take in the money and send Teheran back in the deal. Relieves some financial burden while giving AZ a solid rotation piece and innings eater.
How did the talks crumble when you included Santana and a bucket full of money?
“no, doofus, look at the birdy, like Paul, not at the camera”