Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer. Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
Astros
The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel. The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case. Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.
Dodgers
The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Nationals
The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.
Red Sox
The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.
The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s. The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s. The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin. Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.
Can Harper negotiate a long term deal with the Nats still? If they do, what happens then?
He can, and then there would be no draft pick compensation involved. I guess you could say they’d lose their opportunity to get a pick after the fourth round.
Thank you for clarifying. So much to learn about draft picks
Hey Tim, since so many questions arise with regards to the CBA and at times the JDA would it be possible to have links added to the site for both (and maybe even the MLB Constitution). I think they would be helpful tools.
No compensation either way.
Boy the Nats really look stupid now that they didn’t make that deal with the Astros for 3 prospects.
Can’t say that till he signs elsewhere I doubt he would have given Houston a chance had they traded him.
Yea but lets say he did resign with the Nats. They still lost out on 3 prospects plus if they do lose him now they basically get one 4th round comp pick.
Needless to say 3 beats 1.
If Harper signs with the Nats the decision not to trade him looks even worse. If they had traded Harper then signed him they would have Harper plus three prospects. But now they only get Harper. I think you know which one is better.
Why in the world would Harper eliminate the Nationals as a landing spot? For trading him to the defending world champions and a pennant race? That is absurd.
Hindsight is always 20/20. In the Nats’ defense, and I find it hard to use the word “defense” with a team headed by Rizzo, the team was only 5 games out of first place at the trade deadline. That’s not a big deficit when you have guys like Scherzer and Strasburg heading your rotation and hitters like Harper, Turner, Murphy, Sosa and Rendon as everyday players..
If I fault Rizzo, and I do that a lot, it’s because with some quality starting pitchers available for trade, Rizzo sat on his hands and did nothing in that department. Rizzo also sat by idly and watched a division foe (Phillies) scoop up Wilson Ramos for peanuts. Nats needed a catching upgrade all season, and Ramos would have filled a big hole.
Picking up a shutdown relief pitcher would have helped immensely, and there were quality names available here too, but Rizzo passed..
So long as Rizzo is steering this ship,( What’s he had, five managers in eight years?), there will be no sustainable upward direction. Only a weak NL East gives him a shot to return to the playoffs in 2019.
What the Red Sox sign Kimbrel?
I miss the old Type A and Type B free agent draft pick compensation.
The players don’t……restricted their movement. Almost guaranteeing all compensation will be done away with the next CBA….along with elimination of arbitration, new Free Agency guidelines (based on signing dates), salary floors, roster size (or “daily activations”)…..it’ll be an interesting negotiation…..
I’d be surprised if all of those drastic changes happened. I think they’ll all be discussed and on the table, but few of them will be changed (I think salary floor and the elimination of arbitration is unlikely)
I’m not sure how many fans realize that floor and replacing the arb system are not new(ish) ideas. Both were proposed by the owners in the 90-93 CBA but were rejected by the MLBPA along with a partnership that….well instead of explaining it here is a copy/paste from Cot’s….” The owners had proposed a “partnership” with the players committing 48 percent of all MLB gate and network and local broadcast revenues to players’ salaries and the players’ pension plan. In exchange, the owners’ proposal required the players to agree to a maximum and minimum salary cap and a “play for performance” system to replace salary arbitration. The players refuse.”
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/le…
Lol the old system was horrible, and none of those things will happen bobtillman
Lotta water over dat dere bridge since 1993….the landscape has completely changed. MUCH sharper owners , technology, growth of fantasy sports…..franchise values tripling every dozen years or so, even in places MLB was thinking of “contracting” a mere 15 years ago.
And changes have occurred within the MLBPA; Marvin Miller would have never agreed to the “give-backs” the owners got last time. Players (and their agents) won’t let that happen again.
Either way, MAJOR changes to the CBA, or a strike.
Highly doubtful, so we will just agree to disagree
That was a terrible system. Any half decent player would be type A and you would lose a first round pick for ridiculous signings. Like Orlando Hudson or a 42 year old Tom Glavine. If it was like that now, no one would sign anyone but stars
Hope the Nats enjoy that comp pick!
A pick after the 4th round is pretty much worthless. Too bad MLB can’t work out a rule that the losing team gets a pick based on the talent of the player. For Harper whose a superstar the Nats should get a 1st rd pick and it shouldn’t be the same level as say Grandal whose just a slightly above average guy. They should base it on WAR. Any player over a 5 WAR losing team gets a 1 rd and so on. Pretty simple and clean and better than this crap.