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Reds Acquire Tanner Roark

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The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.

There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.

Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.

Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.

That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.

If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.

As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.

Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Comments

      • Because he throws 100 this is a good trade ? So many minor leaguers throw 100 doesn’t make them good.

        4

        • Sidd Finch threw 160 and he never even cracked the upper minors

          8

        • Classic! Where’s Sid today? …. still looking for that arm they had to chop off.

          1

        • When the Reds brought him up from Triple AAA the few times he was promoted he didn’t last long in the majors as his control is terrible and he gave up several home runs in a few innings! He was once a decent prospect of the organization but the past few years the Reds gave up on him!

      • Great at 25 he throws a 100 but almost zero big league experience. Hmm something doesn’t seem right

        3

        • The Nationals have done a crack job of developing young starting pitchers and squaring away veteran ones the past 5 or so years.

          lol

          This pays the first installment on the Corbin contract.

      • 100 doesn’t matter when you can’t through strikes. He gave up 4hr in 7 innings because that 100 mph fastball is strait as an arrow. I’ve seen a lot of players come through here, and GABP gets in a lot of pitchers heads. I’m just happy the Reds finally got a starter. Still need at least 1 more though. 2 would be better..

        4

        • Justin Miller, Robles or Soto, Spencer Kieboom and lotto ticket for Kluber.

          1

        • Uh no. Robles and Soto are in the starting lineup. Spencer Kieboom? Maybe but its more likely to be from this group: Mason Denaburg, Carter Kieboom, James Borque, Raudy Read for Jason Kipnis and Corey Kluber. Nats immediately begin working on an extension for Kluber.

          1

        • Don’t see how the Indians can turn that down.

          Maybe they’ll throw in Lindor if the Nats add Michael A. and a thousand dollars.

          1

        • I think it should be the Nationals sending Scherzer and Zimmerman to the Indians for Ethan Hankins and 3 low impact, ho-hum prospects. The Nationals also need to pay down half of Max’s contract and make him 2 years younger. That’s the equivalent of the offer you just proposed.

          1

    • They just got Corbin (4.8 WAR) and plenty of other starters that produce way more than Roark can be picked up. They seem to have a good grip on starters, they could benefit from some solid guys in the pen.

      • Even if they have other options that doesn’t make the return for Roark enough.
        Surprises me when intelligent baseball fans say things like “well they didn’t really need him anyway” trying to justify a bad trade.
        A hard throwing AAAA reliever is just a bad return for a Major League starter……anyway you slice it.

        1

  6. Good pick up for the Reds. Nats must be going after another pitcher.

    1

    • Not necessarily. They already got Corbin. Roark was superfluous. That being said, I don’t like the return for the Nats here and the Reds win this trade on paper.

    • Actually he would need to have the operation then marry Chuck’s son’s son to be Tanner Tanner.

      1

      • ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..the rays just signed ……………………………………………………………………………… morton………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………,,

        4

  14. Nationals going after another big dog. gonna be the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse

    1

  16. Must be more about getting his salary off the books surely. Maybe they go after DJL now

    • Yep, yep, and yep…..Rourke is a whole bunch of “meh”, and 10M is a whole lot to pay for “meh”……Reds are going to spend money, obviously….now the next question is, do they know how?

      • Haha Reds have money to burn to no doubt, spending it on a 3/4 rotation arm isn’t the worst thing I suppose. Let’s hope they are somewhat smart going forward

  18. Great move dereck Johnson fixer Gio after he got traded to the brewers so he should be able to fix tanner as well

  19. Seems like a good move for the Reds! I am hoping it’s just the 1st in multiple new Starters for 19. Still need a #1

    1

  20. Will a Reds fan please explain this one to me? Do they have multiple other moves coming that will propel them into contention? Why give up a player with so much future control for one year of Roark?

    1

    • The Reds workbin mysterious ways. See: Bailey, Homer.

    • Because attracting a potential decent starter to Cincy, they would have to WAY OVERPAY. $10m for their likely #3 would cost them 12-15 on the open market. And they have a decent farm system for bullpen arms (on paper). The entire rotation has to be addressed this year (likely two to the arms) so this is one. Do I think we can really contend or be a playoff team this year? Not likely. But offensively we are pretty solid so getting a few pitchers that can pick up 10-15 wins a season will be a sure fire start. Who knows. A lot can happen if they can find some value type trades where they don’t have to give a lot up and get a quality starter back.

      2

      • I like this trade. Giving up someone not in the plans for someone decent who may want to re-sign.

      • Thank you, i can get on board with most of that. With that offense you can’t rule them out, although they must be open to a lot of scenarios cuz I don’t get the concept behind dealing Scooter if they’re looking to improve for this season. And getting good pitchers to play in that park will be the heavy lift for sure.

        • You deal Scooter for pitching if you’re aiming for Senzel to go immediately into the lineup. Then you’re a CFr away from a very solid lineup with an improved rotation.

          2

        • Then keep they same pitchers you got. No need in bring Roark’s bum butt in.

        • Roark’s bum butt produced an ERA+ of 98 last year. That would’ve tied for the best on the Reds with Castillo.

          Acquiring a middle of the road starter for a suspect reliever prospect is a win. He serves as a bridge to Santillan, and solidifies a very poor rotation.

          1

        • Although I will give this to you: the “bum butt” comment was pretty funny

      • I am so tired of hearing that the Reds would have to Overpay. It is a fairly ignorant statement that so many seem to think has merit. Players want to be places where they can win. Obviously players are also wanting to get the maximum value for their services. If the Reds trade for Kluber today, would any FA not believe the Reds are looking to win now? Of corse they would. It’s not the Reds have to overpay, it’s the Reds need to show they are going to be competitive.

        1

      • But they won’t contend in 2019 and then Roark will leave. They might as well have just released Rainey, the outcome would have been the same. Arguably better because they wouldn’t be paying Tanner Roark ~$9,8m to hurt their draft position.

    • Well Rainey wasn’t among the Reds top 25 prospects. He’s purely a lottery ticket and wasn’t likely to make the team at age 26. And yes the Reds are trying to contend in 2019, but they need to make several more moves for that to be possible.

      1

    • Almost any SP improves the Reds and Roark can eat innings and has actually put up 3 WAR. It doesnt get them over the hump, but it doesn’t preclude them from making other moves financially. He’s no higher in the pecking order now than he was in Washington. He only cost them a middling pen arm. That’s my Reds fans take. They have also been very busy on other things. Well see how it ends up going onto spring training

      4

      • He also cost money — One year less than $10M. Thats nothing 2019 for 3 WAR SP I’m guessing plus No such thing as a bad one year deal..

        Only thing is, I still see Reds trading for Gray. Idk You guys have always been my team for him, still are doesn’t have to be for top trade compensation

        2

        • They dropped Billy Hamilton and his probably 6m in arb money…so this is found goods

        • But Billy is probably a better player than Roark is. Cincinnati didn’t need either one of them

        • Billy Hamilton was 0.3 WAR and cost the Reds 24 runs on offense in 2018. Roark was 3.0 WAR. It’s not a straight comparison across the board but there is no doubt Roark is a better mlb player. Hamilton had a hard time cracking the top 40 CF.

    • Well, would you rather have one year of a good pitcher or six years of a bad one? Almost all minor league players have six full years of control remaining, but are not worth one year of Tanner Roark. For that matter, I have six full years of control and I will fully admit six years of me is not worth one year of Roark.

      • But Roark will make it to free agency before the Reds are contending (then again, so would you)

        • Someone has to eat innings on teams. Saving a pen by reliability is valuable. If he helps the Reds toward .500….and that makes the Reds a more viable free agent landing spot…Roark serves an ancillary purpose.

  22. Has the – “they can flip at the trading deadline” – comment been written here yet? There’s at least one under every article of a signing this offseason…..sometimes even in the article.

    lol

    2

    • Ahh the deadline flip, like the lure of the sirens’ song, never what it seems to be, yet who among us can resist?

      2

    • Classic. And the person who writes it no doubt thinks he/she is being so,so novel.

      1

  23. Where’s juicy juice? Seems like a good time to point out how this gives the Reds a better rotation than the Cardinals and that the Cardinals will finish in last place by 173 games!

    1

  24. OK. I hope Rizzo has something in the works to replace Roark in the rotation. Top three are set with Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin. After that, lots of question marks. Joe Ross is back from TJ, but who knows how he’ll do. Rodriguez got traded. Fedde has been underwhelming. I sure hope Rizzo isn’t planning on filing the roto with dumpster diving reclamation projects like Edwin Jackson or Jeremy Hellickson.
    The prospect we got in return has 7IP with an ERA over 24?

    • Miley Sanchez & Kikuchi are on the Radar according to our host site.
      I doubt Kikuchi will happen but that would be a nice acquisition to slot in the four hole. But I am betting the bidding on Kuch is going to be a bit stiff.

      As for Miley and Sanchez they are not really names that “sooth my fevered brow right now. But the market is rather thin if you are trying to maintain budget flexibility,

      Let’s not sleep on the prospects either. Fedde made progress last year and for the first time in two years we have a healthy Mighty Joe. Ross is my breakout pick this year. His velocity was back in the mid 90s by the end of last year. He should also better benefit from the improved pitch framing from the other side of the projected battery…

      • I agree. The problem last season was lack of depth. Every SP had to be healthy and productive for the Nats to succeed. As we know, that didn’t happen. Strasburg hit the DL for an extended period (which shouldn’t have been a surprise) and Roark, Rodriguez and Fedde struggled. They were lucky to get some solid innings out of Hellickson.
        Rizzo can’t roll the dice again in ‘19. He needs to have five solid starters and one or two solid backups in the system.
        So far, it’s Max, SS, Corbin, Ross (if he stays healthy) and ????

  25. Should have known “in over my head Dick” would pull off a garbage trade like this. One year of Roark at $8 or $9 million for 6 years of a kid who averaged 1.5 strikeouts per 9 and less than a half of a homerun per 9 in AAA. Could have signed garage like Lance Lynn for $10 million a year and not given up anyone. Seems like the Bengals sending Mike Brown out to assist Dick is paying off.

    • the kid in tripple a got destroyed in the majors. its a steal for the reds. Wont see the majors in WAS

      2

      • Stay with me…. Tanner Roark sucks and you have to pay him $10,000,000 to suck. Tell me the last pitcher the Reds or anyone for that matter who came to the majors and was lights out? All rookies struggle and most do it when they first get up. But, if he was to continue to suck, at least he makes $500,000 suckin. Write this down. Roark losing record, 4.50 plus ERA and 30 bombs given up. You have the same thing already on your roster and not paying them that much.

        • I’d say stay with me, but you’re clearly lost. Roark has a career ERA+ of 115, which equates to an above average pitcher. Last year he had an ERA+ of 98 which makes him an average pitcher for the year. NO ONE ON THE REDS had an ERA+ greater than 98 last year. How do you not see this as an improvement?

          Oh, I know, you’re one than hangs his hat on a pitcher’s record. DeGrom was 10-9 last year: must be an average pitcher.

        • By the way, stop making stats up.

          Roark didn’t have a 4.50 “PLUS” ERA.

          He had a 4.34 2018 ERA, and has a 3.59 career ERA.

          Roark didn’t give up 30 “bombs”.

          He’s never ever given up 30 HRs in a season.

          He’s never ever given up 25 HRs in a season.

          He gave up 24 HRs in 180 IP last season. That would have been the best rate on the Reds staff last year.

          The Reds don’t have ANYONE on the roster, save Castillo, who is nearly as good as Roark.

          1

        • I didn’t even know what his record was. I actually figured he had a winning record. I hang my hat on Tanner Roark is a piss poor pitcher. And he gets worse every year he hangs on. I know when he was in his 20’s and was pitching in the 5 spot for a really good team he put up good numbers. But he isn’t in his 20’s any more and each year he moves from his 20’s he gets worse. Big secret since your clueless, every pitcher does that with the exception of 1 out of a 100. Roark isn’t that one. Roark’s numbers will be 5.00 plus era and 1.5/HR per 9.

        • And I said he would have those number at Cincinnati. Any man who argues that Tanner Roark is a good pitcher is an idiot. You should be barred from ever watching a baseball game again.

        • Yeah, I’M clueless. Roark’s ERA+ over the last 3 years: 151, 96, 98. With 100 equating to a LEAGUE AVERAGE PITCHER, how do you insist that Tanner Roark is a “piss poor pitcher”?

          Your hangup on age is also suspect. Roark will be pitching ONE YEAR for the Reds, his age 32 season. CC Sabathia had ERA+ #’s of 84, 73, 86 in his age 32, 33, and age 34 seasons. He’s since put up ERA+’s of 110, 122, and 120 in his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons. The NYYs signed him to a one year deal for his age 38 season. JA Happ will probably sign for 3 years and he’s already 36. Charlie Morton, age 35, signed a 2 year deal Garrett Richards signed a 2 year deal for his age 31 and 32 seasons. Corbin signed a SIX year deal that will take him thru his age 34 season. Lance Lynn signed a THREE year deal thru his age 34 season. And we’re not even thru the winter meetings yet, Keuchel will probably sign a 5 year deal thru his age 36 season. You really need to let front offices throughout MLB in on your “BIG SECRET” .

          Roark is such a piss poor pitcher that he got $ 6.5 Mil in arbitration last year. This year he’s estimated to get $ 9 mil in arbitration, because you know, you get a big raise in arbitration when you’re a “piss poor pitcher”.

          I won’t bar you from ever watching baseball again. You clearly need to watch much much more of the game.

        • Your last post you said I was hung up on record and now age. You’re getting closer to figuring it out. It’s the total package of what Roark is and will be. Don’t compare him to CC and I’d give Happ and Morton $20 million a year to Roarks $10million. Compare Roark to the pitchers in his class. He is a Reds type pitcher and as everyone knows the were horrible this year. If everyone is healthy next and everyone that is on the roster today is there next year he will fight with Homer to be the number 3.

          If Tanner Roark is part of a solution for anything for the Reds next year they will own the number one pick in 2020.

        • And you do know Billy Hamilton was scheduled to make $6million in arbitration. I guess since he was going to get it that makes him a good player.

          A guy can either play or not, Hamilton wasn’t worth a crap and neither is Roark. But maybe they could let Billy pitch and Tanner hit and they would improve their worth. They sure wouldn’t be any worse.

        • Boy, you are calling a lot of people idiots. He is 32 on his contract year and I expect good things. His stats are right next to Castillo and right now he is are #1. Great pickup.

        • The Reds gave up a guy who greatly struggled in the majors and isn’t like some top 100 prospect. I know Roark is getting paid $10 million, but it’s not like the Reds are on a budget strain right now. Plus, he’s a much better than most of the Reds other options out of the rotation, except for Castillo.

        • Timothay, only in your mind will Roark be fighting with Homer for the #3 spot in the rotation. Homer hasn’t been league average in years upon years. Both players ERA+’s for the last FIVE years, starting in 2014 and ending in 2018:

          Player A: 131, 91, 151, 96, 98
          Player B: 99, 73, 65, 70, 69

          Innings Pitched over the same period:

          Player A; 199, 111, 210, 181, 180
          Player B: 146, 11, 23, 91, 106

          Yeah, they’re spitting images of each other, virtual twins, like Danny DeVito and Arnold.

          Player B(ailey) has been HORRIFIC for the last FOUR YEARS. Do you understand what order of magnitude represents the difference between an ERA+ of 98 vs 69, or 96 vs 70? They’re not even on the same planet, much less in the same area code. How you even attempt to compare Homer and Roark is beyond me.

          If you’re betting on the Reds having the worst record in MLB in 2019, based on adding a LEAGUE AVERAGE PITCHER to what has been an awful rotation, you’re gonna get great odds. Like a 1000 to 1 payoff.

          I’m done with this nonsense.

        • Rainey has always had a problem throwing strikes, no matter the sample size. I hope he figures it out, but there’s more hope than faith there. His walks per 9 over the last three years in the minors: 5.7, 4.8, and 6.2 last year. The chances of that walk rate getting down to a playable level are small, but if he finds some control, Rainey might really turn it around. His stuff is otherwise filthy.

          Unfortunately, the minors are chock full of guys who throw in the upper 90’s, but who can’t throw strikes.

          1

  26. I’m not trying to be rude but can someone please tell me why everyone is excited about this trade. Tanner Roark just seems like an average player to me

    2

    • Reds have put together multiple years of bottom 2-3 rotations in MLB. “Average” is a definite improvement.

      4

    • I don’t know other’s opinion, just my own. Roark is a solid starter, not spectacular but, someone a MLB team can hope to win with every 5 days. Rainey is 100 mph. can’t pitch, can’t find the plate, all hype, undefined role type pitcher. The Reds will flip Roark mid season for more than he’s worth and likely a better player… so its Rainey for hope.

      1

    • Even as an average pitcher he could be the 1 or 2 in this rotation come opening day as the team is currently constituted.

      1

  27. I feel like they could have gotten something a tad better in return. I’m not saying anything great… just better than this lol

    1

    • I will retract my statement… I saw his minor league #’s. Looks fair enough

      2

        • They ones that he actually accumulated this year at AAA. Iglesias type numbers. Fans one here don’t understand that most rookies struggle when they come and and thought he should have been lights out in his first 7 innings. By the way, Iglesias had a ERA of over 7 when he first came up.

        • Right, I didn’t pay attention to his major league stats, when I did I figured he must have had some potential in the minors. Which when I checked, he definitely does. So I’m owning up to my own mistaking of making a dumb comment without actually looking into the guy like I should have. Good trade. Seems fair

  28. Deal was done from a tanning booth at the winter meetings.

    We wait for the Nats next move.

  29. They need to find a guy named Danny Tanner and Tanner Daniels going either way. As ptbnl

  30. The best Tanner swap since they subbed Mary-Kate for Ashley on Full House.

    1

  32. Jason Marquis 2.0 ladies and gentlemen… I so, so hope I’m wrong

    • Roark’s last 5 years ERA+’s:

      131
      91
      151
      96
      98

      Marquis’s last 5 years ERA+’s:

      61
      87
      72
      84
      62

      Night and day difference.

      • hat’s off to you for doing your homework my friend.. indeed a poor attempt at humor on my part, but, what I’m trying to convey is my fear that his best years are behind him and that he’s being acquired just in time for his wheels to fall off. Obviously, that’s the most prevalent concern with any new acquisition. From a pure stuff standpoint, Roark is clearly a better pitcher than Marquis, I know

        • It’s a one year deal for his age 32 season. The risk is minimal. I do understand the Jason Marquis mentality; the FO has to prove itself, with pitching in particular. I think that as Reds fans, we’ve been so beaten down, we take good news and immediately look for the catch or the downside.

  33. Reds just got a very good pitcher. Watched him a few times last year. Under rated due to the fact he is behind the stars on the staff.

    1

    • He was their 4/5 starter making 10 million in a contract year. Simply, They wanted to clear that money.

    • It gives the Nats flexibility in the SP role, with Corbin coming aboard and Joe Ross returning from TJS.

      • Do you think Corbin is worth what they paid him?
        He’s a good pitcher but a 4 year contract at $68M seems more logical.
        Roark is a good pitcher. Probably worth 4 years $68M as well in 2020 – 2023.
        Washington has no balance.
        How do they pay both Scherzer and Strasburg about $38M each in 2019?
        And then get rid of Roark?
        Look at the way they structure their contracts.
        Usually back end loaded.
        That’s like placing a baloon payment loan on your house with a huge balance due at the end.
        No one will bail you out on contracts like that in July if your team tanks.
        There’s also no room to pay young talent.

        • On paper, I think Corbin was an overpay, more on the years than on the dollars. (but how do you separate those out?)

          In reality, it will become an overpay if Corbin doesn’t make it through four years, let’s say, without his arm falling off, or needing additional surgery. Rizzo placed a huge bet on that spin, with a lot of attendant risk and reward.

          Corbin only has about $10MM deferred, so that didn’t really add to the already significant load or Scherzer and Stras.

          As for young(er) talent, there is still the looming issue of Anthony Rendon.

    • To your comment about the off-season strategy in general for the Nats …

      Rizzo needed to address three main areas: relief, catching, and a starter. He has handled all three nicely. The Roark trade is a bit mystifying in that context since the net/net on starters is back to zero. Plus the return on Roark is underwhelming.

      I can only speculate that Rizzo considers Roark to be expendable with the imminent return of Joe Ross; or with the pursuit of another less splashy starter. Maybe they know something about Roark that suggests trouble ahead; maybe they didn’t like what they saw last summer? A $10MM salary “dump” isn’t much in the context of their other contracts.

      So there is probably more not known in this deal. I dunno … spitballing here, Rizzo hasn’t had many duds.

  35. You guys in Cinci will like Tanner. He’ll give you 180 innings of 3.7 ERA ball. He is the proverbial innings eater. At 31, he should have a few serviceable years left while you build up your rotation.

    In Washington, Roark did everything they asked him to. He went to the pen after Max came aboard; he struggled with mechanics this season and worked hard on it, recovering nicely, but a bit too late for any Nats’ post-season hopes. He sat out the entire 2017 post-season because he was in Dusty’s doghouse. He was on deck the day Dusty got confused as to which starter he wanted against the Cubs; Stras stepped up, and Roark kept his peace.

    Roark was a fan favorite in Washington despite not being an ace; his attitude and his origins made him well-liked. Besides, his facial hair gallery is entertaining.

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