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Free Agency Notes: Cole, Strasburg, Pitching

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Some of his teammates in Houston anticipate that Gerrit Cole will ultimately land with a California team next season, per ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Angels, in particular, are where many within the industry expect Cole to gravitate, given the proximity of Angel Stadium to his high school home. The is a story the Yankees have seen before, going back to their signing of CC Sabathia. They also had to entice Sabathia away from his California homeland by paying a premium in free agency. Of course, Sabathia hadn’t received much interest from the Dodgers, his desired team at the time, whereas it would not be surprising in the least to see the Angels – or another Golden State franchise – going hard after Cole. But he’s not the only potential free agent hurler being featured in this week’s World Series…

  • After Cole, Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals would be the most talented arm on the market. There’s a feeling within the industry, however, that he won’t get there, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Strasburg, remember, was the rare Scott Boras client to sign an early extension, and it could be that Boras will leverage Strasburg’s opt-out into a longer deal with the Nationals. For his part, Strasburg has shown no inclination to test foreign waters, and tacking a couple years and a couple million dollars to the 4 years, $100MM already owed him after 2019 certainly could be enough to keep him in DC. After his current playoff run, it’s hard to imagine Stras pitching in another uniform. Still, if the window opens, there are sure to be suitors come to call. 
  • There’s no telling how much the free agency of the above-noted hurlers could change the shape of the league. Look no further than this week’s World Series for evidence. The Astros and Nationals will face off starting tomorrow with rosters built around “imported” pitching, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The Astros brought in Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke via trade, whereas the Nationals signed Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez in free agency. Whichever team wins four of the next seven games will add to a recent history of champions built around homegrown offense and supplemented pitching. The Cubs in 2016, Astros in 2017, and Red Sox in 2018 all boasted homegrown cores of position players and hired guns on the hill.

Yankees Notes: Lindor, Shortstop, Cole

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Many will categorize 2019 as a failure for the 103-win Yankees. For the most storied franchise in the game, anything less than a World Series victory is sufficient cause for handwringing. Chalk up 2019 as a close-but-no-cigar season – just a few outs here or there and the Yankees could be readying to take on the Nationals instead of watching from home. In a game with only one ultimate winner, however, 2019 goes down as a failed season even if, objectively, the Bronx provided some of the most potent, resilient, and thrilling baseball of the year. Moving forward, they have one of the strongest talent cores in baseball. And yet, in an era that includes a dynastic force like the Astros, savvy, irrepressible units in Oakland and Tampa Bay, and bounce-back potential in Boston, the Yankees owe their due diligence to improving the roster wherever possible. Starting pitching may be New York’s advertised soft spot, but they should target Francisco Lindor first and foremost, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Defense, baserunning, and an opportunity for diversified offense make Lindor a perfect fit on a roster of sluggers (though a player of Lindor’s caliber is a perfect fit on every roster). Let’s check in on what else is being said about the Bombers this morning…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney also targets shortstop as a position of reflection for the Yankees, though he emphasizes settling on a bellcow more than finding a significant upgrade. Didi Gregorius is a free agent likely facing a qualifying offer decision, and Gleyber Torres remains on-hand as the future somewhere up the middle. Given the keys to the car, Olney would also seek more production from the Yankee starting staff and left-handed hitting to balance the right-heavy group of savages already on-hand in the Bronx.
  • After not making the World Series for the entirety of the 2010’s, there may in fact be some urgency to New York’s offseason, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Gerrit Cole is the obvious answer, but there are legitimate questions as to whether the Yankees will shell out top dollar for a pitcher for the first time since Masahiro Tanaka prior to 2014. It’s also not entirely clear if Cole, a California native, has any interest in pitching for New York. Brian Cashman hasn’t been willing to move his line when it comes to free agents of late, with Patrick Corbin’s desire for a sixth contract year the most recent example, and it’s hard to argue with New York’s methods considering their recent success. On the other hand, Corbin will be playing in the World Series this week and the Yankees, of course, will not.

The Astros/Nationals Blockbuster Trade That Was Almost A Reality

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The Astros and Nationals share a Spring Training site, but there isn’t exactly a lot of shared history between the two franchises as they prepare to meet in the World Series.  The Astros hold a 244-207 all-time record over the Nationals/Expos, and the no-hitter that Larry Dierker threw against the Expos back on July 9, 1976 is probably the most historically significant game to ever take place between the two clubs….until Tuesday’s Game 1, that is.

There isn’t even a lengthy or significant trade history to work with in finding links between the two clubs, as the last deal between Washington and Houston took place back in 2007.  However, the reigning pennant winners came close to a much more significant trade in July 2018, when Bryce Harper almost became an Astro.  As detailed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) last November, the two teams had worked out the framework of a trade that would have sent Harper to Houston for a three-prospect package headlined by right-hander J.B. Bukauskas.  The other two prospects were a pitcher in the lower minors and catcher Garrett Stubbs “was in play” to be the third piece, Rosenthal noted.

The swap was ready to go by July 30, the day before the trade deadline, though Nationals ownership stepped in to veto the proposal.  The Lerner family was still hopeful of re-signing Harper to a new contract either in free agency or even before he hit the open market, and didn’t yet want to part ways with the star outfielder.  For similar reasons, a potential August trade between the Dodgers and Nationals that would have seen Yasiel Puig head to D.C. and Harper go to L.A. was also a no-go.

The idea Harper going to the Astros is such an eye-opening concept that the entire baseball world would have been shaken up had the trade been completed.  Here are four of the larger ripple effects that could have emerged if Harper had indeed donned Houston orange in July 2018…

Do The Astros Win The 2018 World Series?
Maybe the most obvious question of the bunch, as the Astros had a surprisingly middle-of-the-pack offense in the second half of the 2018 season.  With Harper’s bat in the lineup, perhaps Houston (who won 103 games in real life) could have scored enough extra victories to overtake the 108-win Red Sox for home-field advantage throughout the postseason.  If not, perhaps at least Harper helps the Astros generate enough offense to overcome the Red Sox in the ALCS.  Astros hitters combined for a mediocre .219/.337/.385 slash line in Houston’s five-game loss, and while pitching (a combined 5.52 ERA) was the Astros’ larger problem against Boston, it’s worth noting that Sox hitters had only a .710 collective OPS.

In a short series, even a few hits could have swung the entire thing Houston’s way, and perhaps Harper could have also been a difference-maker in helping the Astros top the Dodgers in the 2018 Series.  Stretching the butterfly effect out a bit further, maybe the Harper-led Astros only make it a round further, and it’s the Dodgers who wind up as the 2018 champions.  Or, if the Red Sox fell short, perhaps president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is fired after the season (ownership was already considering a change late in the 2018 season), Boston has a new front office boss installed last winter, and the entire scope of the Red Sox 2018-19 offseason and 2019 season are also changed.

No QO, No Status Quo For Harper’s Free Agency
One can definitely fall down lots of different wormholes when exploring an alternate reality scenario, but one thing seems pretty uniformly certain — Harper would still have become a free agent after the 2018 season, and he wouldn’t have been an Astro in 2019.  The Astros didn’t show interest in signing Harper to a mega-deal last winter, and even in a world where Harper magically carries Houston to a championship, it’s very likely that the two sides thank each other for the ring and part ways.  As such, the Astros’ offseason decisions aren’t greatly impacted, so the team’s real-world moves (i.e. signing Michael Brantley and Wade Miley) probably still happen.

One wrinkle to Harper’s free agency is that, since he was dealt at midseason, he was ineligible to have a qualifying offer placed on his services.  So the Nationals would’ve gotten the Bukauskas package but not the compensatory pick they received for Harper once he signed with Philadelphia.  This comp pick ended up falling after the fourth round (since the Nats exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2018) though Washington actually forfeited this pick regardless — the Nationals had to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft as compensation for signing Patrick Corbin, another QO free agent.  So without the Harper pick to work with, the Nationals wouldn’t have had a fifth-round draft pick, and thus wouldn’t have been able to select hard-throwing Florida right-hander Tyler Dyson.  Washington went well above slot ($346.8K) in signing Dyson to a $500K bonus, and MLB Pipeline ranks Dyson as the 20th-best prospect in the Nationals’ system.

So with Dyson still on the board, that single inclusion quite possibly shakes up a lot of movement in the draft.  But, if Harper doesn’t have a rejected qualifying offer hanging over him, the Phillies wouldn’t have had to give up their second round pick in order to sign him.  So this gives the Phils another high draft pick to add to their farm system — or maybe the Phillies end up using that pick anyway on another QO free agent.  Harper was known to be on the Phillies’ offseason radar from day one, so it’s safe to assume they’d already earmarked losing that pick to ink him.

But if that wasn’t a consideration, perhaps Philadelphia looks at the other five QO free agents who hit the market (Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted his offer and remained with the Dodgers) and pursues one of them during its aggressive offseason.  How does the 2019 Phillies season play out look if Corbin or Dallas Keuchel had been in the rotation, if Craig Kimbrel was closing games, if A.J. Pollock was in the outfield, or if Yasmani Grandal had been behind the plate?  The latter three are particularly intriguing, since signing any of those players would’ve meant the Phils would’ve had to forego some of their other acquisitions (such as David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen, or J.T. Realmuto) at those same positions.

Tax Relief In Washington
It isn’t known whether the Astros would’ve absorbed all of the approximately $7.21MM still owed to Harper over the last months of the season had the Nationals trade gone through.  But even if only a portion came off the books, trading Harper would’ve jump-started the Nats’ efforts to reload for 2019, and they might’ve dealt veterans like Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, and Ryan Madson on July 31 or earlier in the old August trade waivers period rather than wait until late August to unload the quartet.

The bottom line is that either by moving Gonzalez and company earlier, or in dealing Harper’s salary in its entirety, the Nationals would’ve been able to duck under the $197MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset their penalty clock.  In real life, D.C. had a $205MM luxury tax number, which resulted in a tax bill of $2,386,097 (which included a repeater penalty for exceeding the threshold in consecutive years).

The Nationals again slightly exceeded the $206MM threshold this season, as per both Roster Resource (just under $207.94MM) and Cot’s Baseball Contracts (less than $76K).  These figures are estimations, of course, and given the small amounts involved, it’s possible the Nats managed to slightly sneak under the $206MM mark after all.  Even with the 50% tax rate for three-time CBT payors, this small step over the threshold still means the Nationals won’t be facing a big tax bill.  At Roster Resource’s number, the Nats will owe $969,309.50 in luxury tax payments, which is pocket change to a high-spending team.

Much more importantly than saving under $3.36MM in tax money, escaping the “CBT payor” designation would’ve impacted the Nationals in the 2018-19 free agent market.  As per the qualifying offer rules, Washington’s compensatory pick for losing Harper would’ve come after Competitive Balance Round B rather than after the fourth round — a jump of roughly 60 slots.  Also, signing Corbin cost the Nationals $1MM in international bonus money as well as their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, whereas if they hadn’t exceeded the luxury tax threshold, the Corbin signing would’ve cost only the second-highest pick and $500K in international pool funds.

Do The Astros Still Get Greinke?
This is the ripple effect that perhaps has the most clear and direct impact on the 2019 Series.  If Houston trades Bukauskas in July 2018, it doesn’t have him in the organization in July 2019 to be dealt to the Diamondbacks as part of the four-player return for Zack Greinke.

It’s possible the Astros and D’Backs could’ve settled on another name rather than Bukauskas, though given how the Greinke talks were finalized just minutes away from the trade deadline, who knows how things play out with Bukauskas’ involvement.  Bukauskas was the top healthy prospect in the deal, after all, given that Corbin Martin is sidelined due to Tommy John surgery.

Or potentially, in a reality where the Astros swing the Harper trade but it doesn’t work out, perhaps GM Jeff Luhnow thinks twice the next year about another splashy trade for a big name and foregoes a Greinke trade entirely, perhaps focusing on a lower-tier player or players instead.

It’s safe to assume that the Astros would have still acquired some kind of starting pitching help, and still go on to win the AL West even without an ace like Greinke in the mix.  And while Greinke hasn’t been great in the postseason, does Houston still win Game Four of the ALCS without his 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball?  Or, maybe without Greinke down the stretch, the Astros win fewer than 107 games and lose home-field advantage to the Yankees, which swings the ALCS in New York’s direction.  Or, if the Yankees are the top seed, the American League bracket is flipped entirely and, who knows, we could’ve ended up with a Twins/Rays ALCS.

Carlos Martinez Undergoes “Small Procedure” On Shoulder

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Carlos Martinez recently underwent a “small procedure” on his bothersome right shoulder, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said during a radio interview on KMOX 1120 AM Sunday (hat tip to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  The treatment involved a platelet-rich plasma injection.  Martinez isn’t expected to miss any significant time, as Mozeliak said the right-hander “should have a pretty normal offseason” and is expected to ready for the start of the Cards’ Spring Training camp in February.

Shoulder issues have plagued Martinez in each of the last two seasons, which is why St. Louis shifted him into the bullpen in 2018 and used him exclusively as a reliever in 2019.  After making his season debut in May, Martinez posted a 3.17 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 2.94 K/BB rate over 48 1/3 innings, and also ended up accumulating 24 saves as the Cards’ closer once Jordan Hicks had to undergo Tommy John surgery in June.

Despite this success, Martinez has long stated his preference to work as a starting pitcher, the Cardinals left the door open to a return to the rotation in 2020.  Last week’s shoulder procedure was intended to correct the soreness that arose whenever Martinez began to pitch deeper into games, though after over a year away from the rotation, it remains to be seen if Martinez will be able to return to his old form as a starter.  “In terms of what we want to see happen with Carlos this upcoming year, I think there are going to be many factors that way into that, and him being one of them,” Mozeliak said.  “What he decides he thinks is best for him when you look at his career path and where he is physically.”

It wasn’t long ago that Martinez was seen as one of baseball’s top young arms, as he posted a 3.24 ERA, 2.82 K/BB rate, and 8.9 K/9 from 2015-17, averaging 193 innings per season.  This led to a contract extension in the 2016-17 offseason that guaranteed Martinez $51.5MM over a five-year stretch, and Martinez is still owed $23.5MM on that deal.  He’ll earn $11.5MM in 2020 and 2021, before the Cardinals can either exercise a $17MM club option for 2022 or buy it out for $500K, and there’s also an $18MM club option ($500K buyout) on Martinez’s services for 2023.

Those salaries become a veritable bargain if Martinez is able to return to the starting five and pitch as he did in 2015-17, and even if he remains as a reliever, $11.5MM per season isn’t an untoward amount for a bullpen arm who pitches as well as Martinez did in 2019.

Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, and Dakota Hudson have three spaces in the Cardinals’ rotation spoken for next season, though getting Martinez back would go a long way towards helping the team fill the final two spots.  Austin Gomber, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Genesis Cabrera, and Alex Reyes are all on the short list to compete for starting jobs, though one rotation space could be taken if veteran stalwart Adam Wainwright were to re-sign for another year in St. Louis.  If Martinez does return to starting, however, it leaves a vacancy for the Cards to address at closer, since Hicks is slated to miss most or potentially all of the 2020 season.

Latest On Cubs’ Managerial Search

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Just hours after celebrating the Astros’ thrilling ALCS victory over the Yankees, Houston bench coach Joe Espada is headed to Chicago for a second interview with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  For now, Espada is the only one of the Cubs’ six managerial candidates to be brought back for a second interview, greatly elevating his chances of becoming the next dugout boss at Wrigley Field.  Indeed, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes, Espada and former Cubs catcher David Ross “are widely considered the top two candidates for the post.”

It should be noted that a formal second interview might not necessarily be required for three of the other known Cubs candidates, since they all currently work for the organization — bench coach Mark Loretta, first base coach Will Venable, and Ross, a special assistant to the baseball operations department.  As Bastian puts it, “the Cubs know what they have in-house in Ross.  A second interview with Espada will help the franchise get a better sense of what he brings to the table, too.”

Espada has been a popular managerial candidate this winter, as the Giants and Pirates have also shown interest in speaking with the 44-year-old about their own open manager positions.  There hasn’t yet been any indication that Espada has interviewed with either of those clubs, however, though obviously Espada hasn’t had a lot of free time for interviews in recent weeks given the Astros’ continued postseason run.

Moving into the “second interview” phase would seem to hint that the Cubs are approaching an end to their search, though a formal announcement about a hiring may not come until after the World Series, as the league prefers teams to wait until postseason off-days to announce major news in order to keep the focus of the baseball world entirely on the Fall Classic.  This isn’t to say that the Cubs couldn’t announce Espada’s hiring on a World Series off-day, of course, or that he could be hired before his Astros’ tenure is officially over.  In fact, Alex Cora (Espada’s predecessor as Houston’s bench coach) was hired by the Red Sox as their next manager in the days leading up to the Astros beginning play in the 2017 World Series.

Red Sox Speak To Bryan Price About Pitching Coach Opening

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The Red Sox have made contact with former Reds manager Bryan Price about their vacant pitching coach position, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports.

With Dana LeVangie transitioning to a role in the Boston scouting department, the next pitching coach will mark the fourth person to hold the post in the last six seasons. Certainly, the organization would like some stability in the position; we’ll see if Price is the man to do just that.

While Price’s track record as a manager is not especially inspiring, he’s generally well-regarded as a pitching coach. Prior to being hired by the Reds, he served as the pitching coach for the Mariners and Diamondbacks. All told, he has 13 years of experience as a pitching coach, so he seems to fit the qualifications for the Red Sox job. He was rumored to have attracted interest last offseason, but if hired, it would be his first MLB coaching job since the Reds fired him in April 2018.

Interestingly, the Red Sox are proceeding with the search for their next pitching coach while the organization’s general manager chair remains unfilled after the deposition of Dave Dombrowski. However, recent news from Boston indicates that the team may be leaning towards an internal candidate to succeed Dombrowski, so the front office may be in sync despite the lack a nominal GM.

Whoever the new pitching coach is, he will certainly have a number of intriguing weapons at his disposal. He’ll be tasked with getting Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi back on track; all three have demonstrated their sky-high potential but stumbled through 2019, failing to live up to the hefty price tags to which they are attached. Of course, those costly starters aren’t going anywhere, and they’re undeniably instrumental to Boston’s future success, so Price’s approach to solving their issues will likely be a topic of discussion during the interview process.

Beyond that trio, Eduardo Rodriguez was perhaps the most dependable starter in the Red Sox 2019 rotation; at just 26, E-Rod may yet have his best years ahead of him. Much has been made of the barren bullpen mix, and it’s true that there’s considerable ground to be made up in that department; still, relief aces Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman comprise a fine pair of foundational relievers.

Mariners Shut Down Top Prospect Julio Rodriguez

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Mariners outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez has been shut down for the final week of the Arizona Fall League season due to a minor lower back strain, according to Greg Johns of MLB.com.

Evidently, the organization is handling Rodriguez much in the same way as it did Jarred Kelenic, who was likewise shut down after playing just three games in the Arizona Fall League. Johns also notes that another Mariners representative, right-handed pitcher Sam Delaplane, will also have his season end owing to triceps tendinitis.

Delaplane and Rodriguez were selected to participate in the league’s Fall Stars Game last weekend after impressive showings competing against other top prospects. Rodriguez, 18, has turned heads as the youngest player in the league. He has steadily climbed prospect lists after a stellar season in which he reached High-A ball—Rodriguez is now touted by MLB Pipeline as the Mariners’ No. 2 prospect—behind only Kelenic—and the 25th-best prospect in all of baseball. In 84 games across two levels of the lower minors, Rodriguez slashed .326/.390/.540 with 12 home runs.

Meanwhile, 24-year-old Delaplane has enjoyed a breakout season and had been enjoying increased exposure for his performance in the Fall League. He reached Double-A, where he threw 37 innings and struck out 58 batters with a minuscule 0.43 ERA. He’s followed that up with a strong AFL showing, having struck out 15 batters in eight innings of work.

Quick Hits: Hicks, Didi, Bradley, Nats

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As baseball takes a break until Tuesday night, we’ll touch on a few items pertaining to the upcoming offseason and looking back at how last offseason laid the foundation for where we stand.

  • Aaron Hicks made a remarkable return to action in the ALCS after sitting out over two months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. We knew at the time that Tommy John Surgery was in consideration for the 30-year-old, and with the season now over, Hicks admits it was actually recommended by renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter). Hicks reiterated last night he believes he’ll avert the operation given the progress he’s made with less drastic rehabilitation methods. Hicks, who signed a seven-year extension entering the season, is surely an integral part of the Bombers’ plans moving forward.
  • It’s less clear if Didi Gregorius is part of the team’s future, but the five-year Yankee tells reporters, including James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link), he’d like to return to the Bronx. The 29-year-old is ticketed for free agency, where he profiles as the top shortstop option on the market. Gregorius didn’t play in the majors this season until June 7 owing to a Tommy John of his own, and he never got on track offensively, slashing .238/.276/.441 (84 wRC+) in 344 plate appearances. Nevertheless, Gregorius’ pre-2019 track record, age, and the scarcity of shortstops available in free agency make him a reasonable qualifying offer candidate. With a glut of infielders on hand, among them former shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, Brian Cashman’s front office will have some tough decisions sorting out the infield mix this winter.
  • The Reds discussed Jackie Bradley, Jr. with the Red Sox last offseason, relays the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale. While there’s no indication talks progressed very far or have picked up since, it’s still noteworthy to hear Cincinnati’s front office liked the player not too long ago. Bradley’s one of the offseason’s most obvious trade candidates, as we’ve already heard rumblings Boston would shop him this winter to ameliorate payroll concerns. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently explored Bradley’s market in full and noted that the Reds have some uncertainty in center field if they believe Nick Senzel to be more valuable at second base. Bradley didn’t have a banner 2019 season and comes with a rather significant arbitration projection ($11MM), but the free agent market in center field isn’t particularly robust.
  • The Nationals aren’t turning their attention to next spring just yet. As the team gears up for a World Series showdown with the Astros, the Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli looks back to the organization’s roster construction work last winter. General Manager Mike Rizzo was aggressive early in free agency, re-signing Kurt Suzuki and bringing aboard Patrick Corbin and Brian Dozier. A willingness to dangle a sixth year was perhaps the driving factor in getting Corbin (the Phillies and Yankees stopped at five), the prize of last offseason’s pitching market. That said, Rizzo’s forthrightness in negotiations certainly didn’t hurt, Corbin explains, and Dozier tells Ghiroli he declined more lucrative offers elsewhere out of a belief in what the Nats were building. It’s a worthwhile read for Nationals’ fans soaking up the enjoyment of the franchise’s first pennant.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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What better way to kick off baseball’s two-day hiatus than by looking ahead to the upcoming Fall Classic? This year’s World Series feels like something of a throwback, featuring three powerhouse starting pitching matchups to get things going. It’s hard to imagine a better sextet of starters from two teams than Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke on one end, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin on the other.

The Astros figure enter the Series as the odds-on favorite. Houston won an MLB-best 107 games in the regular season compared to Washington’s 93. Houston’s +280 run differential was also the league’s best, again significantly better than the Nationals’ still-strong +149 mark. The Astros unquestionably boast a stronger bullpen than their D.C. counterparts, and their lineup, for all their struggles in the ALCS, was among the best of all-time in the regular season.

All that said, there are reasons one might reasonably expect an upset, even beyond the vagaries somewhat inherent in short series. The Nationals are probably the better defensive team, last night’s glove show by Houston notwithstanding, with Víctor Robles perhaps baseball’s best defensive outfielder. Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto can go toe-to-toe with any duo in the Astros’ order.

Most importantly, though, any Nationals’ optimism is rooted in the nature of the short series. Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin could (and probably would) start six of the seven games for Washington should this Series go the distance. No one’s surprised any time the Nats fly a curly W when any of those three take the mound. The Nats’ pitching depth (most notably in middle relief and setup work) was the club’s Achilles heel during the regular season. Yet the postseason’s heavy dose of off days has allowed manager Dave Martinez to leverage his top arms. To this point, Washington hasn’t felt any ill effects for essentially deploying a six-man pitching staff (the aforementioned trio of starters, fourth starter Aníbal Sánchez, and top relievers Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson). With six days off between NLCS Game 4 and Tuesday night’s Game 1, Washington’s arms should be more than ready to empty the tank one final time.

So, MLBTR readers, we turn things over to you. Will the Astros cement themselves as a dynasty by winning their second World Series in a span of three 100-win seasons? Or will the Nationals’ three aces pitch their way to Washington’s first World Series parade since the Coolidge administration?

(poll link for app users)

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