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AL Notes: Vlad Jr., Bogaerts, Twins, Castellanos

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It has long seemed obvious that the Blue Jays would prefer to hold top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Triple-A to open the 2019 season. After all, the team decided not to call him up late last season and can push back his potential free agency by one season if they keep him down for at least a brief stretch to begin the new campaign. GM Ross Atkins declined yesterday to provide any kind of hint as to the anticipated timing, as Keegan Matheson of the Score tweets, though he did so in a manner that seemingly suggests the club is indeed preparing to hold off on a call-up. “There’s no firm timeline on when [Guerrero] arrives or when he is playing in Toronto for the first time,” said Atkins, “but we want to make sure he’s the best possible third baseman and the best possible hitter he can be.”

Let’s take a look at some other notes from the American League …

  • The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts reportedly failed to gain traction in extension talks earlier this winter. Perhaps it’s still possible, though, that the pending free agent could line up with the organization on a new deal. As John Tomase of WEEI.com writes, Bogaerts acknowledged that the slow-developing free agent market provides cause for him to consider extension scenarios — “you obviously have to think about that,” he said — though he also did not exactly hint that he’s particularly inclined to forego the risks and upside of the open market. The 26-year-old called this winter’s market developments “weird.” As for the possibility of a future in Boston, he ultimately would say only that he likes playing with the team and that “we’ll see what happens.”
  • While the Twins have looked into extensions with multiple young players, and recently locked up both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, all is quiet on that front at this point, per LaVelle E. Neal III off the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Players such as outfielder Eddie Rosario and righty Jose Berrios would seem to represent highly appealing targets, though both also have added leverage due to their strong 2018 seasons.
  • The Tigers, meanwhile, do not appear to have anything in the works with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who seems to be more of a mid-season trade candidate than extension candidate. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that skipper Ron Gardenhire would prefer Castellanos stick around. He just might get his wish, at least for the first half of the season, as it still seems there’s insufficient market interest in the defensively challenged slugger to pique the Detroit organization’s interest.

NL Notes: Cespedes, deGrom, Arenado, Marlins, Barrett

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Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes provided an update on his efforts to return from surgeries to both heels. As Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes, Cespedes expressed confidence that he will be able to make it back to the MLB field, but says it’s unlikely to occur before the middle of the coming season. Cespedes does say that he’s now pain-free, which seems promising, though it remains to be seen how things will progress once his rehab is able to ramp up toward full speed.

  • In other recent Mets news, ace Jacob deGrom discussed his contract situation with reporters including Tim Healey of Newsday. Generally, deGrom reiterated what is already known to be the case: he expects to discuss an extension in the coming weeks but has yet to receive an offer and won’t negotiate past the start of the season. The star righty largely demurred when asked about the oft-floated concept that he might operate under self-imposed workload limitations if he doesn’t have a long-term deal, though he did not rule out such an approach.
  • Speaking of possible blockbuster extensions, Rockies star third baseman Nolan Arenado will not follow deGrom’s lead in placing timing restrictions on his talks with the club, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. Arenado said he does expect there to be a “silent deadline” once “serious games start,” though generally it sounds as if he’s open to chat just about any time. It certainly seems as if there are plenty of good vibes between player and team, though hammering out an appropriate contract will still come with challenges. Arenado, 27, already agreed to a record-setting $26MM salary for the 2019 campaign, after which he’ll hit the open market.
  • While the Marlins were said to have some interest in Carlos Gonzalez, it seems the organization doesn’t intend to make any further additions at the outset of camp. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports that the club presently intends to give a chance to Peter O’Brien to stake out a claim to time in right field. That means that Brian Anderson is shifting back to third base, leaving the club with a rather unexpected combination of Neil Walker and Martin Prado slated to share the action at first bse (and other areas in the infield). President of baseball operations Michael Hill says the team will still keep an eye on market opportunities, but is “extremely happy” with the “current group of players.”
  • Nationals reliever Aaron Barrett has been through a gauntlet of terrible arm injuries, but he’s still plugging away at a comeback effort. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, the 31-year-old righty is showing some signs of real potential while enjoying an opportunity to pitch in MLB camp, though he has a ways to go before he’ll truly be considered for a big league opportunity. Barrett once featured intriguing swing-and-miss stuff, but has made only twenty low-A appearances over the past three seasons.

Brewers Sign Jay Jackson

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The Brewers have inked a minors deal with righty Jay Jackson, per a club announcement. It would pay him $1MM if he can crack the major-league roster, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter link)..

When last we saw him on this side of the Pacific back in 2015, Jackson had finally (albeit briefly) cracked the majors after seven seasons in the upper minors. Despite that milestone, and a generally productive season at Double-A and Triple-A after moving into a full-time relief role, Jackson’s outlook was decidedly uncertain. He ended up being set free by the Padres to pursue an opportunity in Japan.

Now 31, Jackson has been plying his trade in the interim in with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hiroshima Carp. Through three seasons, he has spun 176 innings of 2.10 ERA ball with 9.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. It’ll be interesting to see whether he can carry some of that success back with him to the affiliated ranks, though the hard-throwing righty will first need to earn his way onto the 40-man roster.

Braves Execs McGuirk, Anthopoulos Defend Spending Choices

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Braves fans have been none too pleased to see a surprising NL East title and NLDS appearance followed up by a relatively quiet offseason. While Atlanta made a big splash early by signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal and followed that with the nostalgic addition of Brian McCann, there’s been little activity since. Atlanta re-upped with Nick Markakis on an affordable one-year deal which, while reasonable from a financial perspective, did little to satiate those who’d been hoping for a higher-profile splash. The Braves remain a clear contender in a densely packed NL East, but have arguably bypassed some worthwhile chances to boost their odds of a repeat division title.

At the time of the Markakis re-signing, Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos preached that the pickup created unexpected financial flexibility and suggested that further additions could be made as a result. (“Nick coming back on these terms allow[s] us to pursue other things, have financial flexibility to improve the club in other ways.”) Since then, however, the club has remained quiet, and Anthopoulos has publicly cast doubt on the possibility of a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, suggesting that allocating “big, elite dollars” to a reliever may not be feasible for the organization.

With fan frustration building, Anthopoulos and Braves chairman Terry McGuirk told their side of the story to Jeff Schultz and David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link). It’s obviously well worth a read in its entirety, for Braves fans in particular, though the broader takeaways largely reflect prior statements from Anthopoulos. We’ll run through some of the most salient points here.

McGuirk emphasized throughout the interview that the team’s 40-man payroll is higher now than it was a year ago. He drew a distinction to the 2018 version of the club, which was paying a variety of expensive players who were no longer with the organization. The organization is “being very careful” to avoid the “mistake” of taking on a deal that turns into “dead money,” he emphasized. Anthopoulos also stressed the importance of managing contract length. A player “might fit the 2019 club,” he noted, “[b]ut what if you’re signing the guy to a long-term deal?”

Those talking points dovetail with the club’s stance that its available payroll is in fact rising. Per the execs, it’s just that the team has not elected to deploy it all and is being cautious not to over-commit its future resources. Anthopoulos sought to explain the seeming disconnect between the organization’s longstanding assertion that it’d have plenty of spending capacity this winter and the general lack of activity. There was and is “a lot of room” to spend, he said, “but that doesn’t mean we’re going to [spend the available payroll] just for the sake of doing it.”

The issue, per Anthopoulos, isn’t that the club can’t afford some of the players who have gone off the board. It’s that the front office does not “believe in some of the deals right now.” Both executives also emphasized a need to budget for possible mid-season acquisitions. While the offseason is “certainly relevant … the psychological value when you add to your team at the trade deadline is appreciable,” says McGuirk.

So, how does the club view its payroll position in comparison to the rest of the league? Both interviewees emphasized the upward trajectory more than the present commitments. “Our budgeted number absolutely is trending toward the middle” of spending league-wide, says Anthopoulos. By McGuirk’s reckoning: “We’ve been a bottom-10 payroll team for a couple of years. We’ve messaged that we want to get to the middle, and I think this year begins to get us to that neighborhood. I expect that we push beyond that in the coming five years.”

There are certainly those who’d say the pace ought to increase, particularly given the strides made last season. McGuirk says he has the authority to authorize spending as he sees fit, without interference from the club’s corporate ownership group. “We’ve never ever checked with Liberty on a salary decision, a free-agent signing, nothing,” he says. But what of the earnings from the new ballpark and last year’s postseason run? Paying down debt and principal on the club’s ballpark project will “produce profitability” in the future, he says, and that will help the organization move “from that small middle-market team to high middle-market team to even potentially something bigger.”

Is the organization cheap or a budding financial behemoth? Has it missed opportunities or averted risks? Is the front office blowing chances or wisely propping open windows? Fans will have to reach their own conclusions as to the validity of the explanations proffered.

So far as near-term roster considerations are concerned, the outlook remains murky. “We still have an appreciable amount of dry powder ready to go,” says McGuirk. Meanwhile, Anthopoulos says it’s a “coin flip” as to whether he’ll make another notable addition between now and Opening Day (which Schultz defined as a top two starter, an everyday player or a high-end reliever). At the same time, many of the above-cited comments seem to cast doubt on the likelihood of additional spending. The team “explored” but passed on adding Charlie Morton, Anibal Sanchez, Sonny Gray, Edwin Diaz, and J.T. Realmuto this winter, Anthopoulos acknowledged, so the organization has knocked on doors. At the same time, as Anthopoulos puts it, “we’re just not going to force it.”

Royals To Sign Drew Storen

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The Royals have announced a minor-league deal with veteran righty Drew Storen, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter). He’ll earn at a $1.25MM level if he makes it to the majors, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), with $900K in incentives also available, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link).

The deal includes an invite to participate in MLB camp. It also allows Storen to opt out on March 25th if he has not been added to the 40-man roster, Flanagan adds on Twitter.

Storen is still working back from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in September of 2017. He missed all of the ensuing campaign. Now, nearly a year and a half removed from the procedure, Storen will look to get back on track.

There’s more than just health to overcome for the former first-round pick, who’s now 31 years of age. Storen hasn’t been effective since wrapping up his time with the Nationals, a six-year run in which he threw 334 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. In the following two seasons, he managed only a 4.82 ERA in 106 1/3 innings.

The biggest change over the years has been a precipitous drop in velocity. While he once sat in the mid-nineties with his pair of fastballs, Storen dropped about 2 mph between 2015 and 2016 and did so again in the ensuing season. That led him to move away from his four-seamer in favor of his sinker, change and slider. While Storen was able to generate grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him in 2016 and 2017, he also lost swinging strikes and allowed more long balls. Without the threat of his full-throated heater to keep hitters honest, Storen got far fewer swings and misses on pitches out of the zone and coughed up a career-high 3.8 walks per nine in his most recent campaign.

Angels To Sign Dan Jennings

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The Angels have agreed to a deal with lefty Dan Jennings, according to reports. It’s a minor-league deal with a camp invitation. Jennings would earn $1MM in the majors, with up to $500K in incentives, per Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).

Jennings was non-tendered by the Brewers at the outset of the winter. He had projected to earn a $1.6MM salary but was instead kicked back to the open market. Now, he’ll have to earn his way into the Halos’ relief unit.

The 31-year-old southpaw, who’s just one MLB service day shy of reaching his sixth full season, has produced nothing but good outcomes in the majors. Through 344 career innings, he carries a 2.96 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. It was more of the same last year, as he provided the Brewers with 64 1/3 frames of 3.22 ERA ball.

Clearly, teams aren’t buying into the results. ERA estimators don’t either. Over his career, Jennings carries a 3.83 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, and 4.00 SIERA. He does get a lot of groundballs, with a 55.4% career rate, but otherwise stands out mostly for allowing opposing hitters to put the ball over the fence just 0.63 times per nine innings over the course of his seven seasons.

Whether that home run suppression is sustainable is probably the key question with regard to Jennings. He has seen his HR/FB rate jump in the last two years (21.1% and 13.3%) after sitting in single digits for every prior season, though he gets so many grounders that there still aren’t too many balls leaving the yard. It’s notable, too, that he has induced infield flies at better than the league average rate over the past four seasons, which perhaps also helps explain why he has found so much success despite ho-hum K/BB numbers.

In any event, this seems to be a no-brainer of a low-risk move for the Angels, who possess little in the way of lefty relievers. As things stand, the 40-man features Williams Jerez, Dillon Peters, and Jose Suarez as possible options, though the latter two seem likelier to serve as rotation depth. It certainly seems that Jennings will have the inside track on a big-league job.

Giants, Craig Gentry Agree To Terms

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The Giants have agreed to a contract with free-agent outfielder Craig Gentry, MLBTR has confirmed. He’ll give the team some additional outfield depth following this week’s signing of veteran Gerardo Parra to a minor league pact.

Gentry, 35, spent the 2018 season with the Orioles organization and appeared in 68 games at the MLB level, tallying 169 plate appearances and hitting .269/.321/.346 along the way. Those numbers align rather closely with the .262/.333/.339 slash that Gentry has posted in parts of 10 big league seasons with the Rangers, Orioles, Athletics and Angels.

As is typical for Gentry, he didn’t bring much power to the table in 2018 but provided the O’s with quality outfield defense and plenty of speed. Gentry saw action at all three outfield spots and turned in strong defensive marks (+7 Defensive Runs Saved, +2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +3 Outs Above Average) in a small sample of 386 2/3 innings. He also swiped a dozen bases in 15 attempts and ranked in the 90th percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.9 ft/sec), per Statcast.

The right-handed-hitting Gentry doesn’t have glaring platoon splits but has generally handled left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching (.711 OPS vs. .640 OPS). The Giants have plenty of uncertainty in the outfield, so it’s natural to see them bolster their depth. Young center fielder Steven Duggar is coming off shoulder surgery, and the other options on the 40-man roster — Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, Chris Shaw — all have some upside but are not yet proven big leaguers. The aforementioned Parra, too, will be in camp competing for a regular role. Offseason pickups John Andreoli and Mike Gerber are also in the organization as non-roster invitees to camp after the Giants were able to pass them through waivers.

Yankees Extend Luis Severino

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4:48pm: The Yankees have now announced the agreement.

11:00am Severino’s fifth-year option is worth $15MM and comes with a $2.75MM buyout, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll earn a $2MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary in 2019, $10MM in 2020, $10.25MM in 2021 and $11MM in 2022. In all, Severino can earn up to $52.25MM if the option is exercised.

As has been the case with numerous recent extensions — Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Whit Merrifield — Severino’s deal is more front-loaded than conventional extensions. That’s been agreed upon in some cases as a means of protection against a potential work stoppage upon completion of the current CBA in 2021.

10:41am: The Yankees and right-hander Luis Severino have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a multi-year contract, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The new contract is pending a physical. Severino, a client of Rep 1 Baseball, will be guaranteed $40MM over a four-year contract that contains a club option for a fifth season.

Luis Severino |Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The first major payday comes as an early birthday present for Severino, who’ll turn 25 next Wednesday. It’s a well-earned contract for the Dominican-born righty, who to this point in his career has turned in a 3.51 ERA in 518 innings of work. Over the past two seasons, Severino has been both excellent and consistent, compiling a combined 3.18 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate in 384 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s yet to find success in the postseason spotlight, the Yankees’ strong core should afford Severino ample opportunities to do so over the life of this contract.

Severino had been arbitration-eligible for the first time as a Super Two player, meaning he was already controlled for those four seasons. However, the new contract arrangement affords the team with control over what would have been the right-hander’s first season of free agency.

Severino’s camp filed for a $5.25MM salary against the Yankees’ submission of $4.4MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), so this contract promises him what would be at least an additional $35.6MM for his three subsequent arbitration seasons (or an additional $34.75MM in the scenario where he had won that case). Heading into arbitration, Severino and righty Aaron Nola were viewed as similar cases, and the similarity between the pair of extensions they signed this week — Nola inked a four-year, $45MM pact on Wednesday — further speak to the comparable nature of their cases.

The most notable difference between the pair of right-handers, though, was that Nola had already surpassed three year of service, while Severino was a Super Two. So while the Phillies gained control over an additional two seasons of Nola (in exchange for an additional $5MM in guarantees), the Yankees are buying out just one free-agent year. Severino will now hit the open market in advance of his age-30 season.

As was the case with the Nola deal, there’s some risk baked into this new pact for Severino. While one can hardly fault him from wanting to secure a first life-altering contract, Severino is also forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency heading into his age-29 campaign — an age at which Patrick Corbin received a six-year, $140MM contract. Granted, he’s only pushing the free-agent clock back by one season, but teams have shown an increased reluctance to pay a premium as players enter their early and mid-30s. It’s also quite possible that with at least $4.4MM (and potentially as much as $5.25MM) already banked, Severino could’ve handily topped $40MM in total earnings over the course of his four arbitration seasons.

Of course, those risks apply to virtually any early-career extension, and Severino’s new arrangement provides him with a nice safety net in the event that he incurs a serious injury or unexpected decline — either of which could radically alter his earning capacity in a scenario where he’d opted to go year-to-year through the arbitration process.

Looking at historical precedent, the contract, like Nola’s, is somewhat of a half measure. Severino isn’t fully betting on himself, surrendering his earliest opportunity at free agency in exchange for an immediate payday, but his camp also opted not to go for broke in terms of establishing a new precedent for Super Two starting pitcher extensions.

As shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Gio Gonzalez’s now seven-year-old extension with the Nationals (five years, $42MM and two club options) still stands out as the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of service time. Severino did top Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM deal with the Indians by a slight margin, but Kluber wasn’t Super Two eligible and was four years older at that point than Severino is now. Of course, both Gonzalez and Kluber agreed to five-year guarantees with multiple club options as part of those contracts, whereas Severino only surrendered five years of control in total. With that in mind, it’s likely that the Yankees would have wanted (at least) an additional year of control over Severino in order to firmly set a new precedent — something to which Severino’s camp may simply not have been amenable.

Historical context aside, Severino’s contract will push the Yankees’ 2019 payroll to just north of $202MM and come with a $10MM hit on their luxury tax payroll, which is calculated by contracts’ average annual value as opposed to their year-to-year salaries. The Severino extension, then, brings New York’s 2019 luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $222MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, which checks in about $16MM north of the $206MM luxury threshold. Looking beyond the current season, the Yankees now have nearly $146MM committed to the 2020 payroll and more than $161MM on their 2020 luxury ledger.

Tigers Win Arbitration Hearing Against Michael Fulmer

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The Tigers have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Michael Fulmer, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). He’ll now earn the $2.8MM salary that the team filed rather than the $3.4MM submitted by his camp.

Fulmer, 26 next month, struggled through the worst season of his young career in 2018, recording a 4.69 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, a career-high 1.29 HR/9 and a career-low 44.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty was also limited to a career-low 132 1/3 innings as he worked through oblique and knee injuries. While the 2018 campaign was far from his best work, Fulmer was a quality arm in each of his first two MLB campaigns, including a 2016 season in which he was named American League Rookie of the Year.

The lack of innings in Fulmer’s platform year, a career losing record thanks largely to playing on a rebuilding Tigers team (wins and losses still factor into arbitration proceedings even if they’re no longer valued by Major League front offices), and a relatively pedestrian strikeout rate all likely worked against Fulmer as he made a case for an additional $600K on top of what the Tigers offered.

Moving forward, Fulmer’s future raises and salaries in arbitration will be based upon that $2.8MM figure, meaning today’s loss has compounding downside for him in the future. He’ll be eligible for arbitration thrice more as a Super Two player before reaching free agency upon the completion of the 2022 campaign (barring a future extension, of course). Given Detroit’s status as a rebuilding club, Fulmer figures to once again see his name circulating on the rumor circuit this summer, though with so much team control remaining, the Tigers certainly hope to be competitive well before Fulmer is close to the open market. As such, there won’t be as much urgency to move him as there will be with a shorter-term asset such as right fielder Nicholas Castellanos.

Fulmer is the 10th player to go to a hearing this year, and as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, the players won six of those 10 hearings. Fulmer was the league’s final unresolved case, so this year’s slate of arbitration hearings will lean slightly in favor of the players’ side.

Athletics Sign Cliff Pennington To Minor League Deal

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The A’s announced Friday that they’ve signed infielder Cliff Pennington to a minor league contract with an invite to Major League Spring Training. With this deal, the Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon client returns to the organization that originally drafted him and the team with which he made his Major League debut in 2008.

Pennington, 34, split the 2018 season between the Reds and Rangers organizations, appearing in 16 games with Cincinnati and tallying 34 plate appearances. The rest of his season was spent between the two clubs’ top minor league affiliates. Prior to that, Pennington had been playing with the Angels on a two-year contract, primarily serving as a utility infielder.

That utility role is one that Pennington has settled into over the course of an 11-year big league career. He’s shown plenty of versatility, with nearly 5000 innings at shortstop, 1600 innings at second base, 350 at third base and some brief work in the corner outfield. In that time, he’s drawn excellent reviews for his glovework at second base and solid marks for his defense at shortstop as well. A switch-hitter, Pennington is a lifetime .242/.309/.339 hitter in 3142 trips to the plate.

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