“Harper’s Bazaar” has reached a conclusion. The Phillies reached an agreement to sign Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330MM contract that now stands as the largest fully guaranteed contract in all of professional sports. While the journey to this terminus was tedious (surely even more so for those involved than for those of us following at a distance), it would appear that Harper and Boras ultimately met the goals they set out to achieve.
Boras, speaking to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (all Twitter links), made clear that Harper’s goal all offseason was to secure the longest contract possible. “Bryce wanted one city for the rest of his career,” said Boras. “That’s what I was instructed to do. It is very difficult in this time to get length of contract that takes a player to age 37, 38, 39.” That difficulty led to a trade-off in terms of annual value. Boras added that the hitter-friendly nature of Citizens Bank Park and owner John Middleton’s commitment to the courtship process both helped to sway Harper as well.
- One notable aspect of Harper’s deal was the lack of a player opt-out clause — a contract term that has largely become a standard feature of big deals. Boras went on record with Tom Verducci of SI.com on this point, saying that his client “refused to allow me” to negotiate an opt-out because he wanted “to be with one team.” While some may raise an eyebrow when hearing an agent suggest that his client didn’t want an opt-out clause in the contract, Harper’s former manager, Dusty Baker, suggested the same thing in a recent interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). “I’ve been told that he wants to be a free agent one time in his career, so I’m sure that’s probably got a lot to do with his decision,” said Baker. If you’re looking for a broad narrative account of Harper’s market experience — with loads of intriguing details and Boras’s commentary on many aspects of the deal and process — you’ll want to give Verducci’s piece a full read.
- Talks between the Phillies and Harper’s camp escalated so rapidly on Thursday morning that general manager Matt Klentak didn’t even have time to get to the team offices, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. According to Zolecki, Klentak closed out the negotiations alone from his condo. Zolecki details some of the many twists and turns negotiations took this weekend, noting that at one point, because the Phillies were worried about losing Harper to a shorter-term deal with a record-shattering average annual value, they put forth three separate offers: a short-term deal with that same type of AAV, a “mid-term” deal and the 13-year, $330MM offer to which Harper eventually agreed. Tacking on those final three seasons without actually upping the $330MM guarantee many expected it’d take to sign Harper was indeed a means of lowering Harper’s luxury tax hit to provide future flexibility when constructing rosters.
- The Giants’ top offer to Harper checked in at a hefty $310MM over a 12-year term, as first reported by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (via Twitter). The Giants would’ve been willing to go higher, according to Pavlovic, but they’d have had to push their final offer quite a ways north of $330MM given the discrepancy between taxes in California and taxes in Pennsylvania. At the end of the bidding, Boras asked the Giants to top the winning bid “by at least $20 million,” per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic (subscription link). San Francisco was long rumored to be interested in Harper only on a short-term pact, though it appears that the team did indeed step up and make a larger push for Harper in the late stages of negotiations. Notably, as Baggarly reports, team CEO Larry Baer says that it was president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi — not ownership — that “was the leading advocate for Harper.” While the Giants entered the fray relatively late in the game, Baer says the club’s interest emerged after Zaidi had spent time evaluating his resources and watching the market develop.
- Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Dodgers never really deviated from their insistence on a short-term deal (Twitter link). Per his report, though, Los Angeles put forth offers with enormous annual values — a three-year, $135MM pact ($45MM AAV) and a four-year, $168MM offer as well ($42MM AAV). That’s contrary to what Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported (subscription link); his sources indicate that the Dodgers were “well below $40 million” in annual value in their bidding. It’s worth noting that Boras, in his previously mentioned comments to Sherman, flatly indicated that he received offers of $45MM in AAV (without specifying the source) and stated that Harper had a “full buffet” from which to choose. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes opines (via Twitter), that the Dodgers “went overboard” with their insistence on a short-term deal in not even showing a willingness to pay Harper into his age-30 or age-31 season on a five- or six-year contract. It seems fair to say, too, that Harper also made a bold choice in his own right by turning down those fantastical annual salaries — if indeed they were on offer.
- While many will tab the contracts given out to Harper and Manny Machado as overpays, Eno Sarris of The Athletic argues to the contrary, calling each deal a relative bargain (subscription required). Looking at long-term projection models for each player’s production, Sarris concludes that the Phillies are effectively paying Harper at a $/WAR valuation that starts at $6MM in the first year of the contract (and increases from there with inflation). That, he notes, was considered the going rate for a win in free agency more than a decade ago (in 2008). As Sarris notes, projection systems are hardly flawless, and the same goes for the dollars-per-win argument. However, he also notes that when factoring inflation into the equation, the Harper and Machado contracts don’t rank anywhere near the top of the scale in terms of present-day dollars despite the fact that MLB revenues are higher than ever. (To that end, I’ll point out that Harper’s AAV is scarcely even higher than the $25.2MM annual value achieved by Alex Rodriguez with the Rangers nearly 20 years ago.)
This will set the Phillies back decades. And I love it.
well if it gets us back to the late 70’s, to the days of Schmidt, Luzinski, Boone, Bowa and Carlton, im all for that.
Just stopping short of 1980? Works for me.
It was kind of why I hoping the giants signed him
Lol… Are they even top 10 for opening day payroll with Harper? You do know decades is at least 20 years? Your math is as bad as your grapes are sour
If a contract like Harpers does go bad, it could set a team back decades. If Harper should get hurt or his production suddenly goes south, The Phils would have to eat an average of 25mil a year for several years in dead money. It could keep them from being able to sign players to replace his lost production and could take another 10 years (like it has since the last time the Phils one anything. So a huge contract can kill a team for decades.
Again… How on earth will 25 million hurt them for decades?
In 10 years I imagine their payroll is going to be over 200 mill… Its like them losing 10 million a year now… Teams routinely make “mistakes” with 10 percent of the payroll. It’s not ideal but to suggest it hurts them for decades is the biggest over reaction to an injury that hasn’t happened I’ve ever seen. Carlos Santana made 20 million for crying out loud
If Harper were to suddenly suffer a career ending injury, the Phillies would surely recoup most of that value through insurance payouts.
Harper’s contract will, with absolute certainly, be insured. If he were to get hurt and be forced out of baseball, the Phillies wouldn’t be paying anything and that money could then be used elsewhere.
25 million annually will not set a team back “decades”
That said, the “biggest loser” is Scott Boras, IMO. Machado gets a bigger AAV on a contract that’s pretty long itself. And Arenado — who was a Boras client until 2015 — gets a MUCH bigger AAV on an extension that’s 8 years itself.
Meanwhile, Boras can spin the 13-year length all he wants. When this year’s free agency started, he never said that going beyond 10 years was a major priority for Harper; ditto on the “only do free agency once.”
IF….we are to believe the new narrative, Boras did exactly what Harper wanted: one contract to finish his career. Boras wanted to go in a different direction but acquiesced to his client’s wishes. So Boras wins: he gets the big commission AND good advertising for the next generation of Harpers…
(caveat, can’t stand Boras since the JD Drew days)
And what a bunch of crap….”Harper wouldn’t allow him to negotiate an opt-out” because he wants to stay with one team. News flash: opt-outs allow for the player to make the decision, not the team! The fact of the matter is, setting the record $$ amount was the most important thing to satisfy both of their massive egos, and an negotiating in an opt-out would have reduced the $$ offer below the magical $326 mil level. Just HAD to break the record
Face saving, plain and simple (in their minds anyway).
I give no fox
However, negotiating an opt-out would change the value. The Phillies wouldn’t give him 80 million in the first 3 years if he negotiated an opt out. Since opt outs only benefit the player, something would need to be negotiated to benefit the team. Since he didn’t want an opt out, my guess is that boras was able to negotiate a full no trade clause by “sacrificing” the opt out. Pure conjecture on my part, but that’s how negotiations work.
Boras said nothing about “only doing free agency once.”
26 million a year will not set them back. Phillies have a lucrative TV deal and very good TV ratings. Also, CBP is going to rock again.
and the Aav makes it somewhat possible to sign trout maybe…
Not torpedo them completely, but it would definitely “set them back” if Harper’s production lags. Philly did an excellent job of spreading the risk out, but let’s not pretend that losing $25M a year in salary flexibility would have no impact.
im a giants fan and wanted harper but come on, how does this set them back for decades? just like ryan howards contract set them back for decades? apparently not if they still shelling out 330. or ellsbury set the yankees back for decades or heyward set the cubs back for decades? this is such a stupid comment. cueto, samardjiza and longoria have set our giants back 5 years. its a combination of getting young talent developed and having your free agent signings pan out for you, that help you win. even if harper turns into a bust after 6 or 7 years, that wont be the reason the phillies lose. the redsox did just fine last year with pablo sandovals hefty contract on the books
I disagree. It’s 1/8 of the CURRENT lux tax limit, a limit to which the Phillies can easily go if need be.
As a Phillies fan, I do not believe there is any way the Arte Moreno will let Mike Trout out of Anaheim, even if he has to chain him to the dugout. But if Trout does hit free agency, the Phillies will have room to compete for his services.
The signings of Harper, Machado, and Arenado have created the framework for determining what on would pay Trout. This provides the Angels with the ability to craft an offer which doesn’t leave either side guessing on what the market value would be.
I’ve said it several times, I don’t get the vibe from a Trout that he wants the biggest total dollars, or highest AAV, or anything like that. Those records are broken too easily, as Machado found out. But he seems to have a happy, respectful relationship with management and ownership, a great place to play in SoCal, in front of fans who adore him and great weather nightly. If Eppler has shown Trout the roadmap for the 2020s and how the team will be built to win, my guess is he will stay and be amply rewarded in the process.
The Angels have sucked with him there and have done nothing to get better. They’ve wasted his career so far by being painfully average. Why would he want to stay there?
I’m not a superfan of Harper, but this deal actually looks pretty decent on the Phillies’ end. Relatively low luxury tax hit and they’ll probably get a nice bump in overall sales and ratings. It will only really feel bad during the final years but by then they’ll probably feel like they got their money’s worth (and probably be right).
10 years from now 25 MM per year might be what an average player earns.
How is one $25M per year player going to set an mlb team with deep pockets back for decades? Even if he is a complete bust this is not a true statement.
This posted in the wrong spot.
Tell that to the Mets who’ll pay Bonilla 3 years after Harpers deal is done
Does Bonilla get mlb health insurance during that time too?
They wanted to spend stupid money, and they did. By spending it in a stupid way
Lol no it won’t. They’re a big market team. They can afford a 25 million dollar contract on their books for 13 years
The revenue generated by this signing (ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, hits on their website, featured games on national television, etc) over just the next few years will more than cover the cost of this contract. If anything the Phillies got a killer bargain.
I think I can fully understand, after this off season, why Harper would want to be a free agent once and once only…
dimitrios in la
Well I never thought of this additional reasoning but it’s certainly possibility that the insecure/uncertain nature of the market pushed him longer term.
With Harper’s injury history it wouldn’t be crazy to think that he may be on the DL for about a qtr of that contract…maybe more. Some players have trouble staying healthy….he’s one.
That’s a bias from when he first came up and was running into walls. In the last 4 years, he’s only had one year where he missed significant time for a DL stint. That year, he slipped running across a wet first base and missed more than a month. He played only 118 games total. Other three years he played at least 147.
I was more referring to the back end of the contract. For example Pujols. No big injury history until that last contract. Not wishing it but…..
Last I heard Kuechel was looking for five years and Kimbel the same. I don’t think the Phillies are done just yet. With the lineup they are going to put on the field one of these top FA pitchers may just want to contend enough to drop their demands to 3or 4 years. It is going to get even more interesting in the next week or two.
It does not cripple them.. or put them back decades. You’re. Just. Salty.
No it doesn’t cripple them at all! They are still 50+ million under the luxury tax threshold with a Top 3 NL team.
According to Cot’s they are sitting at 18 million under the soft cap for this season …
A 1 WAR player 2 of the last 3 years getting a 13 year $330 milliion dollar contract? The absurdity of the baseball team overpays continues.
There is more to baseball than WAR… having 100 or more RBIs only once in your career, two years of 30 or more HR and two years with a BA over 300. Don’t know why teams fall over each other to kiss this dudes butt. First seven years in the league he has comparable number to JAY BRUCE!!! Only difference is the BA is about 25-30 points higher
There’s more to baseball than WAR; Harper was fifth in all of baseball last season in times on base – that’s important; getting on base is the most important skill in baseball. While I like WAR as a rough-and-dirty metric, I think bWAR really hurts Harper in the way they rate defense, and some of the numbers they use are a little suspect. fWAR is a little nicer to Harper, and, of course, his 40 games in center hurt him badly. When the Nl gets the DH in a couple years his defense won’t really matter anyway. He’s an elite hitter – even in a down year he created tons of runs, and runs are what win games.
They aren’t paying for one stat. They are paying for the face of baseball in 2019. You might not like him as a player or even as a person, but to the casual fan he is the face of baseball, even more so than Mike Trout.
I think you can equate it to pro wrestling. Bret Hart was probably the best wrestler of the 1980s/1990s. But Hulk Hogan sold a LOT more tickets.
Being the best player has absolutely nothing to do with being the best draw.
Exactly. Trout is the best player in baseball, but Trout is also the most boring human being imaginable.
actually it kind of is.
Maikel Franco, Scott Kingery, Victor Arano, Jared Eickhoff, Adonis Medina, Aaron Altherr, Adam Haseley, and Nick Williams for Mike Trout, Zack Cozart, and Kole Calhoun.
Trout doesn’t look boring when he’s at home watching Eagles games from the front row.
It was never about being with the same team. He wanted to make sure he always had a paycheck for the entire baseball career. Because in that case he would have excepted the nationals offer. So it was about the financial security side of it.
then why the no trade clause?
Agreed. If staying with one team mattered at all, he would have demanded a no trade clause. He’ll be out of Philadelphia in 5 years or less.
no, there is a no trade clause;.
He has a full no trade clause Norm
Steve’s burning the candle at both ends – had 2nd shift last night and 1st this this morning.
Both deals seem reasonable for the caliber of players that were signed.
He wanted to make sure and accounted for the below average performance that he’s going to have the older you get. So he always wanted to make sure he had some kind of income coming in regardless of how well he played.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez signed the biggest contract in sports history; 5 years, 11 fights, 365 million.
It’s not guaranteed, according to a published report I read today, If he is knocked out in his next fight, guess what? 300 Million+ down the drain
Despite his inconsistencies, I think he will be just fine in Philly. The short right-field wall will help his home run total. I don’t think Harper’s offensive floor will fall out until he is 33-35. By the time he reaches the latter part of his contract, the salary cap will have increased quite a bit and his AAV will be quite small in comparison to others.
Those last 5-6 years could be subpar / hurt though if they feel they are obligated to keep trotting him out there despite a potential sharp decline in production due to the salary commitment.
I like the “I want to play for 1 team only” approach though.
His skill set tends to age well; walks and power are what you look for in terms of aging because they don’t tend to go away. The guys to be wary of are speed guys – the Carl Crawfords of the world.
And the lumbering first base types. Most big men go down early. Guys like Thomas, Ortiz and Thome being the exception to that rule it seems.
All those guys had the DH to fall back on; Harper is a pretty athletic guy who is a workout freak. And the NL will almost certainly have the DH in a couple years.
Let’s not forget with the DH due to come to National League he can ride out the last 4-5 just hitting I think that came into play here
It’s actually a good deal for both sides. It doesn’t set the Phils back at all. In just a few years mediocre players will be getting 20-25 mil/yr. Plus the Harper deal is front loaded so the salary is greatest in the first few years of the contract. All you haters are just jealous.
Jealous of what. So do you really think that adding him to the team is really good to increase your chances of winning a World Series. Sounds like a LeBron James comment.
Um, adding someone with a chance of putting up a 10 WAR season definitely increases your chances of winning the World Series.
Your dreaming. I wish Philadelphia the best. Go out and get your Bryce harper jersey while you can. And plan on wearing it in the postseason sitting on the couch.
Yeah, except Harper will never do that again. His MVP season was an anomaly
100% it increases there odds of winning a WS. But let’s not be remiss here. If the Phil’s solely added Harper and nobody else than absolutely not would it increase their odds. But he is a huge cog in this offseason and might be what pushes them over the hump. I suspect they are still looking at Keuchel and Kimbrel however too though
I’m curious as to how you think it DOESN’T improve their chances of winning a World Series? It’s pretty simple math, really. Nick Williams has been worth around -1.0 to 0 war/year. Aaron Altherr averages about 1.0 war per 500 ab’s. Bryce Harper has averaged about 4.0 over his career, with his peak years still in front of him. Even if the WAR remained the same, swapping out Harper for one of the other two is a net gain of 3-4 wins. If Harper has a big year, it would be much more.
Everybody keeps bringing up these history stats. That’s good on paper but you have to go by the person that you’re talking about. Over the past two seasons his performance started to decline. I personally believe that’s why he did not want to sign with the nationals again because he knew his performance started to decline. And in addition to that he wanted to have some kind of financial security for the next 10 years because he knows his body better than anybody. And he wanted to make sure he had financial security for the next 10 years to account for the declining performance that he is shown.
Declining performance? Harper drove in and scored over 100 runs last season. Was fifth in baseball in times on base. Not sure what the you’re talking about. He’s 26. Only four players in baseball reached base more often than Harper last season.
He could be talking about the 26 defensive runs given up last season
Some of these contracts need to have an opt out clause for the team. If a player is not performing as well as the team things they should be performing. They should have the right to break the contract.
All they have to do is negotiate it into the contract
That sounds easy to do. But you know as well as a I a player is not going to except the contract knowing that at least two out of every three seasons he has to perform above average.
It’s “accept” not “except”. They mean different things.
If Harper is unhappy there he will regret some of the choices he made with this contract. I hope he is happy there
The Philly suburbs are very nice and many are very affluent. It is a nice area to raise a family.
The four township area between Merion and Paoli PA – LM, Radnor and TE contain 3 of the top 25 public school systems in the entire country, out of over 8,700 school systems. A third one that is contiguous to the West, Great Valley, is in the top 140.
If public schools aren’t their thing, the Harper’s could send their kids to a host of elite private institutions as well.
Property values are half of what they are in Southern California, so their money will go further.
Bryce will be very happy.
“Sarris concludes that the Phillies are effectively paying about $6MM per WAR on the contract”
That’s yet to be proven. It should be “Sarris estimates…”, not concludes.
So, in the end, it would seem Harper wasn’t necessarily out for the most money, but that length was just as important, if not more so, than AAV.
For fans that will live through the entirety of the contract, it’ll be interesting to see if they think it was a smart investment or not.
The question i have for Phillies fans, is there a minimum number of WS trophies that makes this contract a success?
lets start with 1, and go from there.
What was most important was to be able to tell everybody that he set the record for the biggest contract. Ego driven. It was just so important that he topped that $325, which I’m sure is the real reason that there isn’t an opt-out in the contract. I’ve heard estimates that say an opt-out is worth around $20 mil, (and probably more for a contract of this magnitude), so that would have left him short. I don’t buy Boras’ explanation for there being no opt-out….how would that effect his ability to stay with one team from here on out? It’d be his decision.
Harper and Bryant are freinds and if Cubs said yes He would have been a Cub. But Mr. Ricketts saved us fans from this. Rickets said no, this is too much money, for many reasons. We who bleed the Cubbie blue are so thankful for this, spending all this money on Harper would be wasteful. We can trust his use of money. Mr. Ricketts is saving it for other important things. Mr. Rickets thinks of the fans first, instead of just putting famous players on the team.
Lol this is an interesting take. How do you know it wasn’t Theo who didn’t want to sign Harper to that kind of money? I highly doubt that if Rickets was involved, he didn’t do it because he was thinking of the fans first. Such a strange example of idolizing an owner
Without his Ameritrade billions, no Theo and no trophy.
Without his Ameritrade billions, it would be another billionaire and his billions. The cubs are a cash cow, he didn’t do the franchise a favor by buying it. He is privileged with having the opportunity to own the team
Harper was never going to sign with the Cubs. Bryant is forever salty for being kept down to squeeze out an extra year of control….So why would Harper sign there to have Bryant bolt…?
I’m glad Harper didn’t sign with the cubs. Could you imagine what cub fans would be like. They already act like the cubs are one of the greatest teams ever assembled. Good for the Phillys. They were always good back in my younger years.
This is good point. I’m not that type of Cub fan but too many are. The assumption that the team’s got to be awesome because Theo put it together. It’s a point of view from the naive fans, or the ones who go to party instead of to watch baseall. I have to admit there are too many Cubs fans like this. But also many, many do know the game. There’s no tougher critic of the Cubs than a Cubs fan who knows the game.
“Harper and Bryant are freinds and if Cubs said yes He would have been a Cub. But Mr. Ricketts saved us fans from this. Rickets said no, this is too much money, for many reasons. We who bleed the Cubbie blue are so thankful for this, spending all this money on Harper would be wasteful. We can trust his use of money. Mr. Ricketts is saving it for other important things. Mr. Rickets thinks of the fans first, instead of just putting famous players on the team.”
Yeah because right now he is wasting it on dead weight like Jayson Heyward and potential dead weight in Yu Darvish.
Yea the Cubs did great giving Heyward 8/184 didn’t they? If they didn’t have that albatross hanging around their necks they would of likely pursued Harper.
Big Theo misses: Heyward. Chatwood. Potential big misses: Darvish, Morrow. You’re right, that’s a lot of Ricketts cash tossed in the fireplace.
And why is Theo in love with Schwarber. Could have traded him for a 4th starter or a high farm pick after the WS.
The bottom line is the last line. Harper’s deal = A-Rod’s, factoring in inflation and other considerations.
Phillies have already, per MLB Network, sold 100,000 more tickets just since the signing….not bad for 12 hours work.
The only real issue is how Harper will respond when, over the course of the next 13 years, the Phillies go through the inevitable peaks and valleys of contention. It gets awfully hot and muggy in August in Philly, and when the team is out of contention…..that’s when the groin strains and “nagging injuries” come into play…..
He has a chance for immortality now, especially in that ballpark. Will he rise to the challenge? That’s the only question, really. You can cite all kinds of those squiggly numbers to justify or pan the deal. But it really boils down to Bryce Harper.
Like it always does.
They’ve sold an extra 100k tickets in one day? LOL I call BS.
Philadelphia senior vice president of ticket operations John Weber revealed to Zolecki that the team has sold approximately 100,000 tickets in less than 24 hours following the news.
I bought 18 games.
“It gets awfully hot and muggy in August in Philly, and when the team is out of contention…..that’s when the groin strains and “nagging injuries” come into play…..”
I assure you the August humidity is just as miserable if not worse in DC.
It’s worse. Way worse. DC is miserable in August – almost swamp-like conditions.
No, the contract isn’t equal to ARod’s. It’s actually of lesser value. I still don’t see him as a guy worth more than a five year, $125mil contract.
I just noticed, the dislike option has been removed.
We musn’t hurt people’s feelings and lower their self esteem. Snowflakes can be fragile things.
I think it’s more likely because certain posters took glee in only down voting, no matter what the comment was.
@Scrap Or maybe we just want to take some of the power from trolls and people who abuse it by logging into multiple accounts to downvote and bully people?
You need to have a better community than this one to have a downvote button imo
Get rid of the LIKE button, it’s just as infantile.
I just LIKED your comment! I agree…I’m all for it because it will rid the site of the annoying few who do nothing but down-vote every single comment.
Spare us all with the “snowflake” nonsense. Why would anyone have hurt feelings from downvotes? Why would that lead us to change the policy? Why would it stop people from expressing disagreement in the comments?
The feature was being abused and was not contributing to the site, so we scrapped it. That’s all. We aren’t hosting make-believe culture wars here, so please don’t try to drag that stuff in.
Two thumbs up for that choice.
The down vote nonsense was being abused. Why? Because that’s what the abusers actually project and reveal about themselves. Sniping from the shadows and it’s quite real and everywhere. It wasn’t a positive contribution and I ‘m glad you for ended it.
yea, I was desperately looking for that option as I read that post above from smokielink, who doesn’t have a clue what’s going on here.
Ha! lol! This site is as tasty as a bowl of mint chocolate chip deliciousness, and dude, you are the fresh whipped cream on top!
Wow….. come on this one was really easy!!!! Just look at his Home Run Log. AT&T Park only 2 home runs. Dodger Stadium only 2 home runs. Then Citizens Bank Park he has 14 home runs really obvious where he will sign!!!!
Brilliant! Nice cherry picking of a stat total, but you conveniently left out how many games has he played in those stadiums.
That explains why he did not sign with the Angels because he only ever had one homerun out there.
Enjoyed this. Thank you Steve and Jeff
Some of these Philadelphia fans see him as a super human unstoppable Force of nature. He is a overpaid underachiever player. As a dodger fan I could never be more excited about not seeing him LA dodger uniform for 10 years.
i havent heard one fan say anything close to that.
Apparently you don’t read all of the post. You might want to start reading a little closer and paying attention to detail. you might understand what I’m talking about.
oh please, spare me.
I think that your evaluation of him is by far the most popular one @number1dodger.
He was definitely overrated but I think so many people have said what you’ve said that he may be underrated at this point (though overpaid)
Cool story bro
That was @ number1dodger
I thin the Philly fans will turn on the Hair-flipping Prima Donna as soon as he hits a 2 for 37 slump. Those fans are fickle, fair-weather, and with you, WIN of DRAW. The Blue Collar Loudmouth Redneck comes out after a losing streak and 5 beers,
6 mil per WAR would be 55 war. No way Harper approaches 55 war over the next 13 years.
Definitely doable if he improves his defense
And that’s the key. If we’re measuring the long term value by WAR, Harper will need to be mega-premium w the stick to make up for his defensive short comings.
But who measures by WAR? Wins is the only real measurement.
I think WAR in it’s current form is flawed and I think the way that people argue value with it often misconstrues it and it’s intent.
But when debating points I try to work within the constructs of the argument presented, so if someone brings up WAR I’ll discuss it as if it were truly meaningful
Well he’s not going to be playing 1/3 of the season in CF so that alone should make a huge difference.
Why would you say he can’t approach 55 WAR? Harper is in elite company as a player who has 30+ fWAR through his age 25 season. Since WWII, there have only been 16 players who have done it. Their average fWAR over the next 10 years is over 52 with 14 of 16 having 39+. Harper producing 55 WAR over the next 13 years is definitely within reason.
Phillies are a better team w Harper.
Harper got his “one team forever” contract.
Boras mounts another epic contract in his showroom.
Phillies still have plenty of room under the CBT level to add players as needed.
Ticket sales spiked yesterday.
Seems like everyone involved should be feeling pretty good today.
let not forget the Taxes in California are higher compared to Philly . He`ll save more in PA for sure .
So many Bryce haters out there. Just entertain this for a minute. Washington Nationals have had 5 managers in the past 7 years. Arguably the best pitching staff year in and year out. But no WS appearances. Bryce got into the shift 91 times last year and walked 130 times. How, I ask you, does a 3 hitter do those things while maintaining a 90.2 average exit velocity and a hard hit ball % of 43.3? This is what happens when the players in front of you don’t get on base and the batter behind you isn’t hitting. Bryce wasn’t seeing a lot of good pitches, opposing pitchers worked around him and when they didn’t they were able to induce him hitting into the shifts. To say this guy isn’t a great player is buffoonery. And I know there will be somebody that compares him to Mike Trout, what a joke. Nobody compares to Trout, except Mantle, Williams, Gehrig etc. Watch what this kid does in Philly with Cutch, Segura, Hoskins and Realmuto around him. Also, the contract is a good one. 25m per year? That’s 14th highest AAV right now. 5 years from now it won’t be in the top 30, 10 years from now it won’t begin the top 75. Let the kid play and see what he can do.
finally, someone gets it.
six years into the deal, Harper will still only be 32. And there will be at least that many players making more than his 25 mil salary by that time, and the luxury tax threshold will have increased significantly by then as well. “Overpay”. “cripple the franchise” “not worth the money” –these are the weak, go-to argument lines for those too dumb to see what this deal really is.
As a Giants fan I’m pretty relieved their offer fell thru for Harper. With new leadership under Zaidi this club can do a lot with 330+ mill… a lot more than one lifetime .279 hitter, whose last b.a. was .249 after a terrific slump stretch in 2018. Philly will end up regretting this in my opinion.
I’d disagree. They have the money (gobs and gobs of same), and are going to need something to keep the Oracle faithful (of which there are many) happy.
You can rebuild without tanking; actually, there are few times when tanking actually worked. SF fans aren’t going to buy this “we’re playing for the future” line of BS; they’re smarter than that. And a whole lot more demanding. Not to mention the marketing aspect, much higher in SF than Philly.
But Harper knows his game doesn’t play as well there as it does in Philly; much harder park, offensively and defensively. THAT was the only reason why I thought he’d never go there.
“Baer says the club’s interest emerged after Zaidi had spent time evaluating his resources”
that tells you a lot about what the Giants FO thinks about their outfield…
You win games based on runs scores or rbi’s. Not based on speculations. Machado is not over paid. He is a two dimensional player. On the other hand Bryce Harper is an overrated and way-over-paid-player. With just one season with more than 100 rbi’s. Exactly 100. Bad deal, period. Time will comfirm.
Please, don’t be like MLB writers. They mix Mike Trout with Harper just based on age. Diluting an incredible player statistics and future Hall of Fame, with a mediocre one dimensional guy, with occasional power having high-low seasons and just average defensive skills.
Eno Sarris is a horrible read…dont give mention to his nonsense. Im being serious.
Goes from the most beloved player in DC to the most hated player overnight. They’ll hear the loudness of the boos all the way in Philadelphia when he plays in the capital.
Ski to Coors
I doubt that, he lead them to multiple winning seasons. Shouldn’t boo him when the Nats own front office wasn’t willing to give him an extra 3/30 (2029-2032 no less, 10M will be nothing by then).
They still offered him a very appealing and lucrative contract for anyone and he never led his team to the World Series when they were among the favorites in the NL every year. There is going to be a ton of bitterness among Nats fans.
only if Rizzo blocks people with PA zipcode from buying tickets to the Nats-Phils games again this year.
Two words to throw fear behind a contract like this: Rick DiPietro
Ski to Coors
If he only plays up to the 2018 level and eventually gets worse with age, this deal with be 3/5 Desmonds.
…”13-year, $330MM contract that now stands as the largest fully guaranteed contract in all of professional sports.”
To someone who isn’t deserving of it. Trout licking his chops for sure.
Love it that SF lost out because of their tax rate.
I have a lot more respect for Bryce now than I did. He could have made more money by taking a shorter deal with higher average then re-entering FA in a few years. Plus refusing an opt-out is a class move by Bryce. Good for Bryce, the Phils and Baseball, good job fellas.
The Giants were offering 12 years. How is that a short term deal? If he went even shorter, his earning power would have gone down.
Where did I say the Giants offered a short term deal? It was the Dodgers offering a short term with high average(3yrs-145M). Lets say he signed that deal. Afterwards he signs another 3yr $145m contract. Now he’s at 6 years and $290 million. One more 3 year $145 million would put him at 9 years and $435 million. Bryce could have certainly made more money long term if he had taken shorter years for more money.
Giants lost out because they would have had to offer $20 million more than the Phillies if they matched the 13 years, due to high SF taxes. I find it so funny cause a lot of the people there act like it’s the best place in the country.
Not getting at least 3 opt outs was very dumb from both sides.
So you think if Harper had 3 opt-outs, it would be BAD for Philly? You don’t follow baseball, do you? 1st of all, Harper would NEVER EVER EVER sign a contract which let Philly opt out of the contract. NEVER BEEN DONE, NEVER WILL BE DONE.
And if Harper is playing great, he opts out. If he stinks like a dead skunk, he stays put and collects $25 Million sitting on the bench. Look up Vernon Wells contract, Josh Hamilton, the list goes on for miles, of huge contract players starting to stink but still get paid. They don’t opt out because the owners guaranteed the contract, rain, shine, or war.
He should’ve went to San Fran tbh.
How mad will Phillies fans be if Nationals still win division? Team that lets Harper walk still wins division. Phillies starting pitching still falls short. Right fielders don’t win championships pitching does .
the Nats could definitely still win the division- now if they actually won a playoff series,
Harper could easily be the third most important acquisition by the Phillies this off season.
Getting Realmuto and Segura are huge adds.
Really improved team as long as the pitching holds up.
And they might not be done yet.
Imagine if they moved an extra bat and some prospects for a starting pitcher from say Cleveland.
I’m imagining Ryan Howard laughing right now “they never learned, did they!” Hahahah
Yes, while admiring his World Series ring.
Ryan Howard was a big lazy dog that should’ve been in the American League playing the DH position.
big yes, lazy no. Howards 25 mil those last few years were a lot larger percentage of the payroll than Harpers final years will be, almost 20 years later.
Howard was far from “ a big lazy dog”…not his fault he tore his Achilles…he’s a class act!!!…after his injury, he tried, but couldn’t get back to his former status…he could have said “screw it” and took the $$ but he worked at it, lost the weight, just was never right again….took all the criticism too, without ever lashing back…Man!!!…
He was lazy any way you slice it. When he was demolishing minor league pitching and had nothing more to prove there and was blocked at 1B by Thome he flat out refused to play LF to get to the majors sooner. My comments were based on his playing, big, lazy, and should’ve been in the AL as a DH later in his career but his contract made him an immovable object.
If Harper can bring a WS or two to Philadelphia within the next 6 or 7 years, the rest of the contract won’t matter much.
This report – didn’t want an opt-out and 1 city rest of career – 100% repairs his image for Phillies fans. The narrative that he doesn’t like Philly, the 3-yr opt out reports, the Cali teams getting back into it… that was damaging his image/like-ability with Philly fans, so the 13-yr deal and the ‘wants to recruit players’ reports does a 180 for a lot of fans. Very very very good PR move for him.
FYI – I’m pretty sure he only follows 1 non-washington athlete, Mike Trout.
If they have a decision to make – Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, Odubel – who are you dealing. You need to deal for pitching – controlled pitching preferably. B/c you can buy another bat next year – Xander Bogaerts and move Segura to 2B if Hernandez doesn’t improve, yes power numbers were up but that was actually a down year outside of incurring more walks.
They need a Lefty – Keuchel/Gio and Gio is burnt out. Overpay Keuchel for 1 season and address the Lefty situation next year when the pool is deeper – Sale, MadBum, Wood, Smyly, Miley.
you’d be trading low on Odubel and Quinn is always hurt so Nick would seem to be the obvious guy to trade, though not a ton of value. I don’t think they would need to buy another bat next year, nor would they spend big dollars on a Bogaerts.
yes, a lefty would be nice- they would have to get creative with payroll to squeeze Keuchel in even for 1 year and stay under the luxury tax.
WOW! Dumbest contract in MLB history! The Philly fans will eat him alive when he inevitably lets them down.
“While the journey to this terminus was tedious (surely even more so for those involved than for those of us following at a distance), it would appear that Harper and Boras ultimately met the goals they set out to achieve.”
I love MLBTR. I don’t love this writing example. “It appears Harper and Boras got the contract they were looking for” is all you really needed.
This is a gift to the Angels. I don’t see Philly landing Trout now. Although, the Yankees or Dodgers could certainly make an offer he can’t refuse. If Moreno wants Trout to be an Angel for life, he better get a deal done now or suffer the consequences.
I have a feeling Trout never sees free agency. I see 10/400 easily for Trout, unless he is absolutely adamant about testing the market or getting out of LA
when Harper was talking about recruting others to Philly, he was talking about Trout. Harpers AAV is lower than Stanton, so why would the Yanks be in a better position than the Phils to get Trout?
It would have been better for all parties if the contract was 10 /330M rather than 13 / 330M. The chances Harper will age well enough to provide surplus value in his age 35-38 seasons playing in the outfield is low. I doubt Harper is desirable on the 25 man roster beyond age 35 if he’s still being asked to play outfielder.
This contract appears to rob Peter to pay Paul.
You do realize he was going to get that money for 10 years and basically through in the last three seasons free. I took just going back and reading the articles on the signing.
exactly. it lowered the AAV to the Phils by almost 8 million a year.
“It seems fair to say, too, that Harper also made a bold”
“Too” is redundant when “also” follows a few words later. Not to mention more going overboard with commas, much like the Dodgers did.
Ask for a refund!
“It seems fair to say, too, that Harper also made a bold”
“Too” is redundant when “also” follows a few words later. Not to mention more going overboard with commas, much like the Dodgers did.
If taxes really were an issue that is disgusting
Most of us make under $100k and can’t get below the 26% rate. These guys make more money than they could ever spend and get to contribute up to 20% less than the rest of us?
There’s no use targeting ballplayers negotiating contracts because their agents and advisors make them aware of tax implications. You think the teams aren’t aware?
Frankly, everyone should think about how taxes might influence their financial decisions. I promise you that all rich or even fairly well-off people are doing so. Quite a few, surely, also go on to bend the rules.
This is why our country is trillions of dollars in debt. The elite feel they shouldn’t have to pay their share. What makes it worse is the mantra that they are job creators and are the only thing keeping this country going.
Everyone should be paying in. I’ll go one step further. It’s downright un-American. Way worse than kneeling during our anthem. The ones who can afford it should be happy to contribute
You’re really way off here, again he’s not against paying taxes but his agent was trying to get contracts to match up based on tax implications.
I feel it’s more a target on giving a pass on the situation. Everyone involved is to blame
I definitely am quick to point out that if the pie is $10b than the players deserve more of it. I don’t believe these are competing ideals
He’s not against paying taxes, but if two teams are matching contracts and at the end of the day you take home $20 million here and $17 million there where would you go?
At that rate, if the difference is going to the country and not a difference in the actual offer, it shouldn’t matter. It’s a huge amount of money. If my $50k has to pay 26% it is nonsense to hear that a player or agent is groveling at all. Most estimates seem to have him paying down below 10% in either location
SMH…have an adult explain to you the tax implications of living in different states and what the salary looks like in each location.
All this talk about how what swayed him was their persistence is a load of crap. If that was the case he would’ve signed weeks ago the fact of the matter is the second Philadelphia went to 13 years and no opt out clause is that why he agreed. If San Francisco did that he would’ve signed with them if the Dodgers did that he would’ve signed with them. Obviously winning is not as important to Harper as we all thought. He talked about wanting to be with one team that is funny because we all know not if but when Philadelphia does not win buy 2023 we will be hearing he wants out and the Phillies want to trade him they will come to an agreement where he will get traded somewhere he wants to go. When do we ever see with the exception of Alex Rodriguez a contract close to this Lankes where eventually the player does not want out.
Lets stop talking and “Play Ball”
I’d rather have AJ Pollock than Bryce Harper any day …
Harper made a big mistake signing with the Phillies, which he may very well find out sooner rather than later…..he should have done a little research before signing about the difference between Philly fans – who will boo him mercilessly if he doesn’t perform up to their expectations, and Giants fans – some of the best in baseball – who support their teams through good times and bad times and never boo their own players – ever….if/when that happens, Harper will be sorry he doesn’t have an opt-out provision in his contract…
Secondly, you can make a good case that Harper will be facing some of the best pitching in Baseball in the NL East…where he will play one third of his games (54), facing deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Foltynewicz, Newcomb, Sanchez, etc. all among the top pitchers in the NL last year. Granted, Harper is a dangerous hitter, but overrated IMO….virtually all of the other top players in Baseball (Machado, Trout, Betts, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Lindor, Baez, etc. are Golden Glove defenders, while Harper is average – at best
All you goombas talking about WAR. His AAV is 25M, not far off of what Machado and Arenados contract of $/WAR puts it at 23-24.25M as fair market value based on his 3.9 career average WAR. If it was 330/10 yrs, then it’s a drastic overpay for WAR.