Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most dominant starters from 2014-18. During that 807 2/3-inning, 131-start span, Carrasco recorded a 3.31 ERA/3.03 FIP with 10.18 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, a 48.0 percent groundball rate and upward of 20 wins above replacement. That five-year stretch convinced the Indians to keep and extend Carrasco in the offseason, when there were rumblings they could offload starters, signing him to a team-friendly contract. Two months into the season, though, the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions haven’t resembled their previous selves, in part because Carrasco hasn’t managed the same results as he did in prior years.
The 32-year-old Carrasco has pitched to a 4.98 ERA through 65 innings, averaging just over five frames per start after logging better than six an outing during the previous half-decade. Carrasco’s 4.07 FIP is nowhere near as underwhelming as his ERA, but it’s still a run higher than he and the Indians are accustomed to. His strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal (10.94 K/9, 1.52 BB/9), and his .353 batting average on balls in play further suggests positive regression in the run prevention department. Aside from those figures, though, there are legit reasons for concern regarding Carrasco.
It begins with a newfound difficulty keeping the ball out of the air. Carrasco’s groundball percentage has nosedived to a career-worst 39.2, leading to personal worsts in fly ball rate (38.7) and launch angle against (14.2). Surprise, surprise: Home run troubles have come with those changes. Carrasco’s yielding gopher balls on 20 percent of flies, up from 12.7 during his aforementioned five-year stretch of excellence. It’s not just HRs, though – Carrasco’s surrendering more damaging contact in general. He ranks in the bottom 8 percent of the league or worse in exit velocity against (90.9), barrel percentage against (14.1) and hard-hit rate (47.3 percent), according to Statcast, which also assigns Carrasco a below-average expected weighted on-base average against (.329, compared to .280 in 2018).
So what’s causing Carrasco to falter? His biggest problem seems to be his changeup, a pitch he has relied on between 16 and 18 percent of the time dating back to last season. Batters have posted a .432/.377 xwOBA versus the offering this season after mustering a matching (and weak) .224/.224 against it a year ago. As is typically the case with changeups, Carrasco has primarily used it in an effort to quell opposite-handed hitters. They’ve caused the most damage against Carrasco, though, having slashed .287/.331/.574 for a .371 wOBA.
In essence, the average lefty swinger who has faced Carrasco in 2019 has hit like Trevor Story or Matt Chapman. That wasn’t the case last year, when lefties managed a Joe Panik-esque .302 wOBA off Carrasco. It’s happening in part because Carrasco isn’t locating his change as precisely as he did in 2018, keeping it too close to the middle of the plate (and inside versus lefties). That wasn’t true last season. Carrasco has had a similar problem with his curveball, having allowed a ludicrous .908/.719 wOBA/xwOBA when throwing it, though he has only turned to the pitch 2.3 percent of the time (down 5 percent from last year, when it was much more effective).
Cleveland’s a 28-28 team with a minus-12 run differential, already facing a 9 1/2-game deficit in the division it has owned in recent seasons. Considering the myriad issues the Indians are facing – including the weeks-long absences of injured righties Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, not to mention fellow RHP Trevor Bauer’s own decline – a middling version of Carrasco is one of the last things they needed. That’s what the Indians have gotten, though, and unless Carrasco returns to form, catching the first-place Twins is going to be an even tougher task.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Go get em Bucs. Can’t be any worse than Archer, right?
Archer has never been as good as Carrasco.
That’s my point.
Seems like working on the changeup is the solution, if not scrapping it altogether. He’s had a ton of success with it in the past, but you’ve gotta adapt.
And it’s preaching to the choir at this point, but it seems safe to admit that the strategy of lowkey dismantling an AL contender and relying solely on starting pitching hasn’t worked. Clevinger has been injured, Kluber has been injured and ineffective, Bauer has had a few rough starts lately, and Carrasco’s results haven’t quite been there either. Bieber has been terrific though.
Gregory Polanco for Carrasco. Who says no first?
Me.
both teams.
Buy low sell high, Carrasco isn’t going anywhere? Besides, he wanted to stay in Cleveland and took a very team friendly deal, he’ll stick around and work through whatever it is.
If we’re handing out fantasy trades….Carrasco for Randal Grichuk.
If the cards continue to flounder I’d offer ozuna,ponce de leon and gyorko for Carrasco and maybe a prospect or 2
why not just keep poncedeleon?
The Indians aren’t gonna take on that much salary. That’s why they went bargain bin shopping in free agency.
An outfielder who is a free agent at the end of the year, a high priced lousy utility guy, and a minor league reliever for a bargain priced starting pitcher with 4 more years of control after this season. Be serious, bighiggy.
uhhh, yea thats a hard pass……So, not only do u want a top 5 pitcher in the AL over the past half decade, who is going to be just fine as his K/BB rate is the best in the AL, but u also think two prospects should be thrown in so the Indians could obtain, two barely starter caliber players and Ozuna, who is one of the worst signings i can remember a franchise as great as the Cardinals ever doing,,,guy is supposed to be a big power hitter, except he i thikn hit exactly 30 his last yr with the Marlins (the season that caused St louis to make such a bad decision…pass on any guy who has a career .320 obp… it makes his very respectable .275 avg totally irrelevant.. he cant run, and has accrued about a 17 WAR in 6 seasons.. which is slightly above average every day player, until u take his MVP caliber season when his war was 6.0….again, hard pass. Cookie will be back to his normal self soon enough..for some reason, im most confident in him returning to himself…Bauer, had something knocked lose 5 weeks ago..only way to explain it…Bauer has the best stuff in baseball, but hes been off his rocker for whatever reason.. Carl Willis as the pitching coach is def part of it.. Mickey Calloway and Kevin cash are both managers , and pitching savants….Willis gets annoyed if he has to walk to the mound…
He’s having an off year, it happens to almost every player.
His xFIP is 3.33 and his SIERA is 3.32. Not concerned
xFIP and SIERA assume league average batted ball distributions (normalized HR/FB and BABIP’s). If Carrasco is getting hit really hard, he’ll be rewarded by xFIP. The inverse is true of soft contact specialists (peak Marco Estrada/Jared Weaver etc.).
I thought the author demonstrated some real concerns with Carrasco’s season so far.
But SIERA adjusts for the type of contact given up, so unless I’m mistaken, it’s not as though his overall contact profile is horrible
Start selling players already, because u guys are pathetic and just to be honest suck
A very productive comment here
agreed, tribe is unwatchable and the dolan family should be shot by a firing squad for destroying a very open pennant window bc being a billionaire and paying players like Brantley, Diaz, Gomes, etc is just not feasible bc they really love their billions..oh, and youre probably the epitiome of pathetic i suppose then, yea? this lonely to register a team site so u can root against and convince urself you are super cool with tons of friends, and that ur your mother didnt accidentally concieve you after her shift ended at the club all those years ago. And dad could be one of five guys…thats not too bad of odds
Once you’re on the wrong side of 30, things tend to go down hill very quickly.
No pitcher in MLB history was ever productive after hitting 30…I could only hope he continues to decline so he could get as low as Verlander…SMH
Is there a way to ban you from commenting for at least a day….lol, that is literally the exact opposite of true.. so many pitchers only start learning to pitch by 28-30… losing a fewmph on the fastball means nothing if u can pitch…I hate witnessing it, but JV is as good as hes ever been..i of course am very suspicious of him as well, he goes from about to finish his 3rd straight awful season, the tribe destroys him each outing,and in a move nobody was paying attention to, he arrives inhouston and can throw 99 again and is back to being one of the best inthe game…
Oh, and Kluber is 33, probably should just release him, no? His five year stretch from 2014-2018 last year, his WAR is barely of 32… what a loser…Only four top 3 cy young finishes and two awards??
From what I’ve seen of Carrasco, he looks a little uncomfortable in his starts this season. Idk, if something is bothering him, causing him to slightly adjust his mechanics or what. However, he seems to be having some trouble repeating his release point, especially on his fastball.
It is one thing if you’re telegraphing your pitches, because if a hitter knows what’s coming, then it’s nearly impossible to be an effective starter. Right now, Carrasco is still about an average ML starter, so I don’t think he’s tipping his pitches. I think his trouble stems mostly from struggling to repeat his release point.
That inconsistency, will be the difference between spotting your fastball on the black, and striking out a hitter looking or inducing weak contact, and missing your spot an inch or two either way, leading to either a hit or a ball. Plus, if you aren’t able to spot and locate your fastball, that lends itself to negatively effecting all your other pitches.
It’s certainly a fixable issue, if Carrasco is fully healthy. He just has to get in his side work, rediscover his most effective release point, and then be able to repeat it consistently from pitch to pitch, at-bat to at-bat, and inning to inning.
Carrasco is at his best when he’s spotting his fastball at will, and finishing off batters whiLe precisely locating his change and curve. I firmly believe once he regains a consistent release point, we should see the Carrasco we’ve come accustomed to seeing..He had some similar issues when he was first called up, and throughout his minor league work; however, once he got it figured out, he quickly returned to his effective and consistent form..
It is not uncommon at all for a pitcher to struggle with their release point when they’re either coming back from an injury, or when they’ve been pitching with any type of minor injury.
Pitchers, their bodies, and their delivery all involves muscle memory, repetition, and relying on their training and mechanics. Sometimes, when you’re coming back from an injury, or when you’ve been trying to pitch through an injury it can unintentionally cause the tiniest of adjustments, and even that subtle adjustment can throw a pitchers release point out of whack.
Like I said before, I think Carrasco just has to rediscover his release point, get it down, and he will ultimately be back to his former self. Personally, I’m not all that worried whatsoever, it’s just a matter of a couple more starts, and I think we will start to see Carrasco back on his A game..
The front office missed the boat by not cashing out either Bauer or Kluber in the offseason. Either
would have brought back quality prospects, or decent young MLB hitters, plus salary relief to spend on another hitter. Bad decision to hold them and bet on a AAA level outfield and no real DH.
Another guy living his life in hindsight with the would’ve could’ve should’ve…they didn’t, and I’m sure they had no shortage of offers to sift through and no matter which one they may have pulled the trigger on wouldn’t have solved the woes they currently have.
This isn’t a hindsight opinion by me, just a hindsight post. If they had traded either pitcher for lineup help, it is nearly impossible for the offense to be worse than it is now. That shouldn’t be hard to see, if it is, you should think more before you post.
Dude you will never win with some people. I agree with you completely and whether it’s hindsight or not, it’s a valid statement and opinion.
Based on your comment there must’ve been plenty of great deals they turned down. What deal did they turn down that would’ve helped the on field product today, kept the window of opportunity open and not brought on a heavy payroll cost?
It was widely rumored that Alex Verdugo would have headlined a Kluber deal to the Dodgers. Supposedly Cleveland was holding out for the inclusion of Bellinger, which wasn’t going to happen.
The Padres were very interested in Bauer, and maybe to a lesser extent Kluber. The only players rumored to be offlimits in a deal were Paddock, Urias, Gore, and Tatis Jr. Hunter Renfroe, plus a couple of solid prospects in the back end of the Padres top 10, would have Cleveland looking better than they do now by standing pat.
no, wrong answer… you should be IRATE that this team was gutted offensively and with Los Brantley, Yandy and the solid actual major league lineup we have had 1-9, we had just as good a shot to win a WS as any year….Now, Clev and Kluber getting hurt cant be planed for but you dont just give in esp not before we see what Clev looks like next week and i dont see Kluber being effective in august but id never count him out…oh, and as sick as watching our pen makes me, were still in the top 5 and have the best closer in the game…Jram is not gonna be getting mvp votes for a 4th straight yr its safe to say, but he iis around .280 over the last month and will be Jram again.. I want 23 HR JRam who hits 56 doubles, and steals 40 bags, which the steals is a given..andMercado looks amazing thus far…Id never put any team hope on a rookie and im sure he’ll hit a 3-34 stretch soon enough, but he is better than anyone on that lineup outside LOs, jose and Frankie obviously.. sorry for the novel, but Paul Trust Fund Dolan deserves to jump off a bridge
Until the team in Cleveland changes their team name I’m happy to see them fail miserably.
Wow great take there. So the Blackhawks, Redskins, Raiders, I’m guessing Warriors too are all on your fail list also? Great plan to live by. If you see a team name and associate it with a negative viewpoint your gonna find issues with everything and everyone in life.
Noone ever complains about the braves…
I’m just happy chief wahoo is gone. That was the problem for me.
History probably wasn’t your strong subject JDTroll….
And we have yet another person who’s “offended” because they think they’re supposed to be.
You’ll tend to have some bad results if you hang your changeup down the middle.