You always hate to put too many expectations on a young player who was just taken in a draft. That’s all the more true in baseball, when there’s almost always a fairly lengthy period of development and preparation in the minor leagues before said player will even be ready to test himself at the game’s highest level.
But every situation is different. And last night’s draft seemed to represent a rare match of a desperate franchise with an exceptionally well-suited top selection when the Orioles chose Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall.
By definition, teams selecting first overall are in a tough spot when it comes to their MLB roster. It’s awfully tough to turn a club around immediately after pacing the league in losses in the prior season. But the Orioles were in especially dire straits after a calamitous attempt at one more season of contention before launching a rebuild.
The on-field product at Camden Yards was really poor last year and remains so at present. While the farm system isn’t barren, it was and is generally regarded as a bottom-third outfit. And the club’s new front office leadership is only just starting the arduous task of building out an international operation.
The first overall draft pick is a nice consolation prize for a wretched season; it’s one the O’s may well pick up for multiple years running. But it doesn’t always convey as much draft power as you might wish. The Diamondbacks, not the Orioles, had the highest overall spending capacity this year since they were able to secure some lofty comp selections.
More importantly, you’re always limited by the players available. Last year, the Tigers were glad to find Casey Mize at 1-1, though pitching prospects are always riskier. The Astros were able to get creative back in 2012, selecting Carlos Correa instead of consensus top prospect Byron Buxton and reallocating some bonus space for later draft targets. But that was only possible because there were two exceptional talents. In some years, there aren’t any slam dunks. Browse back through the recent history of top overall picks and you’ll find quite a few that did not stand out as obvious selections at the time (and haven’t necessarily worked out as hoped).
With the first overall pick, you want a combination of upside and floor. You want it all in terms of talent and makeup. Preferably the player is not just toolsy but advanced enough to be a relatively near-term MLB option. And when you’re in as deep a hole as the Orioles, especially, you are hoping that this special player is capable of taking on the immense pressure that comes with such a selection.
On the surface, Rutschman is all of that and more. He’s a switch-hitting catcher with outstanding abilities on both sides of the ball and a history of performance at the highest levels of the collegiate ranks.
True, there were some other blue chippers in this class. In particular, second overall selection Bobby Witt Jr. had a case to get the top nod. He’s got all the tools and comes with big league bloodlines. If you’re wary of putting too much stock in a guy who’ll take a lot of wear and tear behind the dish, maybe Witt was a better selection. As a high schooler, he wouldn’t be expected to push immediately towards the majors.
Expectations are certainly lofty for Rutschman. He already led OSU to a title. As an advanced college player, he’ll be expected to perform well out of the gates and move swiftly up to the bigs … where team-level expectations will immediately rise.
Rutschman spoke last night in a way that should resonate with Orioles fans: “I’m going to control what I can control and play the best that I can play and work as hard as I can. I think everything else is going to take care of itself.” It’s a humble statement on the surface, but one that’s also laden with expectations when you consider the context. With Rutschman leading the way, will everything else fall into place for the Orioles?
There should be a “How the heck should I know? It’s the day after the draft.” option.
I mean, yeah, of course. But … that’s the entire reason we’re doing a poll. It’s predictive. “Was Mike Trout a good draft choice?” would not be a worthwhile question.
Although on the day he was drafted, we all would have said “why did you take a fish in the first round”
But is it predictive? Everyone is just guessing. No one has any idea. If the majority predicts the outcome it’s still meaningless.
To elaborate, you could do fifty of these polls for the first fifty picks. As long as I took the third option, “The X picked the wrong guy,” I’d be right at least eighty percent of the time.
Does that mean I have some predictive knowledge about who is going to be successful or that I just understand prospect bust rates?
Your logic is flawed. If everyone makes the same guess based on the current variables, that is predictive. All of those people predicted what would happen based on the evidence. That’s sort of the definition of the word.
But what evidence? That’s my point. We have nothing that suggests he differs from any other top pick that may or may not bust. To say that somehow the crowd might know more than the scouting and analytics departments who still get it wrong most of the time is the height of arrogance.
All this poll predicts is how many people have strong opinions about something they really shouldn’t.
I’m sure you are fun at parties
Well I don’t come up with great original one-liners such as yourself that no one has ever heard before and aren’t just tired cliche responses dying on the screen but I do okay.
If he continues hitting like he did in college, he’ll be a great baseball player. I see him being an above avg but not great baseball player in the majors
Based on what? Your entirely uneducated opinion? Comical.
Feel free to post your scouting resume, moron. Give us your predictions based on your clearly superior ability to scout talent.
In a perfect world a few years down the road, Rutschman is behind the dish at Camden yards with Grayson Rodriguez and DL hall 1/2 in the rotation.
Let the talks begin now about that great switch hitting catcher leaving Baltimore for the riches in New York at his first chance…how’d that work out for Weiters?
I think it’s a smart move from multiple angles. This article states how he should move up quickly through the system, but slow down a bit. Catchers historically take longer to develop and that’s not necessarily a bad thing in the O’s case. They have a long road to contention, so there’s no real need to rush him. Catchers learning growing with their future pitching staff is a good thing. Making certain that the O’s future staff is mostly in place, with him, is key.
Of course, stating a player, one day after being drafted, is a future star or bust is almost always foolish. Many things could happen, both good and bad, over the next 3-4 years.
I like the pick and hope it works well. We’ll see.
Historically catchers taken that high (top 10) in the draft out of college are in the majors soon:
-Buster Posey – 3rd overall – a little over a year in the minors
-Mike Zunino – 3rd overall – less than a 100 games in the minors
-Kyle Schwarber – 4th overall – 147 games in the minors
If he’s not up getting at least a cup of coffee in a couple years then they will start to worry, because historically if he’s not up in that time, he will be a bust. College players on average spend less time in the minors, especially high first round picks.
Normally,i might agree with tat assessment, but the O’s are several years out from contending. Depending on what happens with regards to the new CBA, it would be foolish to waste his cheap years on seasons of second division teams. The O’s have the luxury, as i said before, of allowing him to grow with the pitchers in the minors.
“Buster Posey – 3rd overall – a little over a year in the minors”
Where are you getting this erroneous info? He was drafted 5th overall in 2008. He finished that year playing for rookie and low A teams. In 2009 he got a September call up for all of 7 games and 17 PAs, and didn’t get the real called up until May 2010. He played 210 games in the rookie and minor leagues.
It depends on his head. He’s likely never struggled at any level of the sport and probably always had his support group nearby. Now he’s gonna be spending some time out of the spotlight playing against others who are also used to excelling and will likely struggle at some point. How he handles it will be the key. My guess is that he will do well but you never know.
Yeah I wonder how aggressive they’ll be with him developmentally
He sounds waaaaaay too good to be true
exactly my opinion. i know im no expert on this sort of thing, but a generational player who is also a catcher? I dont buy it.
@DarkSide830
Bench, Fisk, Berra, Campanella, Ivan Rodriguez, Piazza
Not saying AR will be one of these guys, but there definitely have been generational players who have also been catchers.
i wouldnt call any of those players “generational” except maybe Bench. they are the best players in their generations at catcher, but not overall.
Pudge was the greatest defensive catcher in the history of MLB. He was also no slouch with the bat, especially during his peak years.
Whether that’s truly generational production or not, if Rutschman turns out to be a HOFer, no matter what other players picked after him do, the Orioles won’t regret the pick.
Who called him generational?
i believe it was mentioned on MLB network’s draft coverage.
I’m high on him because he has such a high floor. A plus defensive catch with exception plate discipline. At worse that sounds like a guy who controls a staff and gets on base. If he develops anything offensively, he will be an allstar
Next poll- will it rain in Des Moines on September 18. 2021?
Ha! You sir win the internet today.
Day after my 40th…yes, it absolutely will.
Its all downhill after 40. Enjoy your late 30s.
seeing how the state of Iowa is currently doing it’s best impression of Waterworld, my guess is that yes it will
Hopefully he isn’t the next Matt Wieters.
I hope he ends up being a great player but he can easily be Mark Weiters 2.0. Relax.
Mark Weiters is the man!
I liked Witt more
This will go towards curing a lot of The Orioles woes in a lot of different ways and is definitely a franchise altering pick. If health holds up. You are looking at a guy who will produce offensively and will be a reliable target behind the plate for pitchers to throw to. Which by looking at The Orioles horrendous ERA right now. They need Rutschman on that side of the ball as much as they need him offensively. Also, the people who are comparing Rutschman to Matt Weiters need to be laughed to scorn, and there is quite a few of them. The only similarities between them is both are switch hitting catchers who have been drafted by The Baltimore Orioles. That is were the similarities end.
Dang it, Dale, you missed Joseph’s lacrosse tryouts!
You say easily say that now because you saw how Weiters ended up, but years ago the hype machine was all over him being a superstar.
Just thought I would grace you with my presence – Randy Flores here – this guy has the ability to change an organization just by swinging his stick. That wooden thing will hit 30+ homers/year that he’ll make Cal Ripken want to come out of retirement. Watch our Buster – this guy is taking Golden Gloves, Silver Sluggers and even will swing the Orioles into the coveted World Series one day. -Director of Scouting
This guy will be a bust. book it. Didn’t hit in the cape. Cape is everything as pitching is better and its with wood. Suprised Elias fell for it. How many players are teams going to have to take from oregon state before they learn they don’t become what they are supposed to be in mlb. Andrew Susac at best
I thought gurus were supposed to be a positive influence. This guru just bummed me out. Why guru, why?
dude your a joke, he played in cap cod lg when he was a freshman in college 2017. He didn’t start to figure things out until 2018 and has gotten better each year. Hes played against the best pitching, and absolutely tore the cover off the ball. Hes going to be a good MLB player. As far as Susac comp, get real, Susac’s numbers in college were butt cheese. 5hrs, more ks then walks, just your run of the mill bum backup numbers at college level.
I tuned into the regional and conference champhionship to see what everyone was talking about with Rutchsman and i was shocked that Oregon States friday night starter and saturday starter were throwing 85 mph and 88. The team they were facing pitcher was throwing 89.
Do you know what guys throw in pro ball? I wathced one game the other day in double a and 7 players hit 100 mph. 7, in one single game! I haven’t seen a pitcher in the minors throw in the 80s in a long long time.
So i don’t care that he hit .350 in college season on the NW pacific. i care what he did with wood bat in cape as that is equivalent to Low A. Time will tell who is right on this.
Your knowledge of baseball is complete doo doo butter there fella
He sucked at 18 guys, no chance for him to be good. Great scouting report.
Well Guru you have a decent chance of being right because of the high bust rate of minor leaguers. I’m not buying your argument that because of a limited sample size he didn’t hit.
It’s really hard to know how anyone is going to fair in baseball for a few years. His defense alone makes him a low floor guy that if he can hit a little should be a valuable big leaguer but if he hits then he’s going to be a star.
Really hard to predict how a young man is going to play once he starts playing high end competition. Really tough to predict when someone will be tripped up going through the minor leagues. Here’s hoping the kid makes it and fulfills his promise.
Baseball is such a difficult and humble sport. Very rarely do we see any draft pick come up with an accurate “can’t miss” tag.
Affixing the pure “Hindsight is 20-20” goggles, Griffey, Bonds and… who else? Frank Thomas? It seems like the biggest stars of today and even the last 20-30 years were middle of the pack, high upside guys who happened to develop better than others. It just seems to me that any MLB draftee is simply a lottery ticket. Which continues to baffle me as to how protective teams are when signing a QO free agent.
This kid’s comment makes me wonder whether (signing bonuses aside) some of these top prospects might not at least privately wish they’d been picked a little further down in the first round.
He seems like an absolute stud. Putting up Nintendo numbers at a well-respected baseball program. The Orioles didn’t need a high schooler who will be ready in 3-4 years, they need help & have a fan base that needs a reason to be optimistic.
Adley Rutschman will be a superstar but not nearly enough to lead an Orioles renaissance in an always tough AL East and top heavy league that should only become stronger with an emerging power house on the South Side of Chicago.
If memory serves me well Joe Maurer started out with all this hype. Big bat, great defense, blah, blah! The biggest question would be can they stay healthy long enough to reach any expectation heaped up on them? In this era where even a strained muscle requires 8-12 weeks on the IL, I don’t buy the hype around any of them. Back when Bench, Berra, Campanella, Munson and the likes played, they battled injuries because they weren’t millionaires straight out the gate. They HAD to work! When you sign #1 overall and get like a $7mil signing bonus, the hunger is negated. That’s why so many “can’t miss” prospects never hit the majors! I hope for the O’s that the hype matches the player, but history over the past 30 years or so tells a much different story.
Didn’t Mauer have concussion issues? Before that he was a top notch catcher. No way to predict career altering injuries. Or should have a player like Ray Fosse played through his injury?
And Bryce Harper was a catcher, sooner or later if you value the players bat enough and want to extend his career you’ll have him switch positions.
Tell that to Buster Posey who is still playing catcher
He was good, sucks now. Just like Joe was an all star and eventually the wear and tear destroyed his hitting. They waited to long with Posey.
4% of respondents aren’t very bright
“Preferably the player is not just toolsy but advanced enough to be a relatively near-term MLB option.”
I think that’s generally true, but most catchers need more time in the minors, making that near-term MLB option less likely.
hyped up college catcher?
O’s fans have gone through and gotten burned by the matt weiters facts…. we’ll keep our expectations lower this time, I hope.
Last time the Orioles had a super hyped prospect at Catcher was Matt Weiters… Let’s not put too much pressure on the kid.
Adley Rutschman is a better prospect than Matt Weiters
People who think Adley Rutsschman is not a franchise type player has never seen the young man play because he has all the tools & then some that you don’t find in a young player very often.
Most people commenting on Adley only seen him play in the College World Series & don’t have a real clue to his abilities & if he decides to forego his Senior Season at Oregon State I believe he will move quickly through Baltimore’s system
.
I think he’ll be a bust. But we’ll see in 4 or 5 years.