Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is one of the majors’ top trade candidates going into the July 31 deadline, and for good reason. The right-hander’s eminently effective, making a reasonable salary ($6.3MM), under control for another year after this one, and playing for a rebuilding team that’s likely to move its best trade chips in the next week-plus. The 28-year-old has been connected to four teams in the rumor mill thus far (the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins and Braves), but it stands to reason he’s on even more contenders’ radars. Any club acquiring Giles would be getting an accomplished late-game option who happens to be amid a career year.
Giles entered 2019 off a strong half-decade run divided among the Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays, though he lost his place in the Houston organization amid a somewhat rocky campaign last year. Two-plus months before the Astros traded him to the Jays in a July deal for fellow reliever Roberto Osuna (who hadn’t yet returned from a domestic violence suspension), Giles made headlines for punching himself in the face on the heels of a rough outing against the Yankees. That was one of several uncharacteristically subpar nights for Giles, who pitched to a personal-worst 4.65 ERA across 50 1/3 innings. But hope wasn’t lost for Giles – he saved all 26 of his attempts, posted excellent strikeout and walk rates (9.48 K/9, 1.25 BB/9) and logged a 3.08 FIP.
This season, not only has Giles continued to fan and walk hitters at appealing clips, but his previously enticing ability to prevent runs has returned. A jaw-dropping, career-high 15.55 K/9 – which ranks third among all relievers – has helped Giles pitch to a microscopic 1.64 ERA/1.46 FIP over 33 innings. Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike percentage (20.8) also ranks among the elite (second).
With Giles missing bats at a ridiculous rate, he has saved 14 of 15 chances, continuing his near-automatic run in that department dating back to last season. Meantime, Giles’ walk rate has more than doubled (2.73 BB/9), but it’s still respectable; it’s also right in line with his career figure (2.72).
As you’d expect from a look at his bottom-line production, Giles has been tough on same-handed and lefty hitters this year. However, it’s righties (.286 wOBA) who have actually caused him more trouble than lefties (.219). Additionally, one would think Giles’ 97 mph fastball has driven his success this season, yet it’s his slider which has flummoxed hitters far more. They’ve put up a pitiful .138 xwOBA/.112 wOBA against Giles’ slider and a much better .367/.340 versus his fastball, according to Statcast. Giles, understandably, has changed how he deploys the two pitches. He turned to his four-seamer almost 59 percent of the time a year ago, but the mark has dropped below 49.0 in 2019. On the other hand, Giles’ slider usage has shot from 40.9 percent to 48.7.
A 7-plus percent decrease in groundball rate has come with Giles’ new pitch mix, but it hasn’t led to more home runs against. To the contrary, his HR-to-fly ball rate (7.1 percent) is outstanding and roughly 4 percent better than it was in 2018. It helps, of course, that Giles has upped his infield fly rate from 7.5 to 14.3 in a year’s time. Pop-ups represent weak contact, so it’s hardly a shock Giles ranks in the league’s upper echelon in hard-hit rate against (71st percentile), per Statcast, which shows his .230 expected weighted on-base average is even weaker than his .256 real wOBA. Just four other pitchers have bettered Giles in the xwOBA category.
Considering Giles’ ERA/FIP and wOBA/xwOBA gaps, not to mention the .365 batting average on balls in play he has yielded, his all-world 2019 production may be unlucky to some extent. No matter what, it’s clear this version of Giles has been on the shortlist of the game’s premier relievers. As a result, the Blue Jays may be in position to add at least one top 100 prospect to their farm system in a Giles trade. Not bad for a Toronto team that got Giles a year ago for a reliever it was eager to cut ties with.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Save percentage is a huge measurement of a good closer. I would take a closer with 100% save percentage if he had an era over 5. Era means nothing to a closer. Blown saves are huge for a closer.
This isn’t 1974. With that attitude you just traded Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney
He’s just a troll
I dont recall trading anyone… especially a guy that throws 200 innings for a guy that gives you 60.
Just saying, I dont care if my closer gives up a run in his one inning as long as we have a two run lead. He can do that all year long and have an era of 9.00 and save every game. A guy like Yates has a fantastic era, but hes blown some leads.
I agree with you, but some people always forget the actual elements of the game. Pitcher A giving up 0 runs in 3 innings when you are behind by 7 in the 5th inning is far less valuable than Pitcher B giving up 2, and only 2, runs when you are up by 3 in the 9th. ERA says says Pitcher A is better, I disagree.
Except that’s a gigantic extreme and no one w half a brain believes a mop up man’s numbers should be compared to a closers in any situation.
Of course it is an extreme, but extremes still happen. And ERA DOES compare mop up men and closers in every situation. Whether they should be is a different question, but they are.
I think we all know how ERA is calculated. If anyone is comping closers to mop up men there’s far more problems there. I don’t have to compare the profit margin of Mom and Pop’s corner store to Amazon’s just because they’re calculated the same way.
And anyway this comment about Yates is simply not true. He’s 31/33 in save chances. That’s a top 5 conversion percentage. Closers who give up a ton of runs but don’t blow saves don’t really exist. You can look at the best save percentages in baseball and all those guys have low ERA’s. We should be way past the point where we think a reliever with a 3.1 ERA is 100% better than a
Guy with a 3.48 ERA. There’s about a million better stats to look at than that anyway.
Nor do I think Alex Colome or Sergio Romo is a better closer than Kirby Yates because they’ve only blown a save apiece and Yates has only converted 31/33. If you look at any stat in a vacuum it’s not going to paint you a whole picture.
You mean like Pedro Baez coming into a game with the bases loaded giving up a couple of hits letting everyone score..lots of games and then telling tbe world his ERA is 0.00?
2018 Giles was perfect 26 for 26 in saves but had an era of 4.65. Blake Trienen was 38 for 43 (88.4%) but had an era of .78.
Would you rather have the guy with the real pretty era or would you want the guy that secures the win?
2019 Taylor Rogers has an era of 1.97 but is 14 of 18 in save opportunities (77.8%)
Romo 3.79 era 16 of 17 (94%) save opportunities.
Give me the guy with the cajones and gets the job done.
The guy with the low era, every time. You’re looking at past results and assuming that Giles somehow did something special to get all those saves despite the high ERA rather than just being lucky. Similarly Treinen, to you, is a bad pitcher who gives up a run (possibly unearned) when it matters most.
I look at the ERA (and other better stats) and use them to project the next 50 save appearances. The high ERA guy (and that was an abberation for Giles of course) is probably not going to close the next 50 saves. The low ERA guy is.
there is also something to be said for closers pitching differently in non-save situations. Anecdotally, I recall several, including Giles, that seem less focused or intense in those situations.
Giles’ numbers are better in non-save situations this season. On the other hand he’s only had 1 difficult team, the Boston Red Sox. 5 of the 6 runs he’s given up this season have come against Boston. The other lone run is Minnesota.
Not bad….
He’s having a great season. Houston’s pitching gurus can fix anyone, except Giles. Glad he was able to turn it around though.
Well written article covered all angles and was interesting to read. I hope the contender he goes to he does well for, and I hope the jays can recoup something very good in return. After his bad season in Houston and the jays problems getting proper value from Osuna they both deserve it
The trade has worked out for both teams, and both players. It’s a rare near perfect swap.
Twins plz also package stroman
I like the fit. We want a package with Kiriloff in return though. What are you thoughts?
Eesh I hate to give up kiriloff but sadly that is probably what it’s gonna take, kiriloff with 3-4 more at least decent prospects will get it done
They can do a deal without Kiriloff.
Graterol, Balazovic, Sands, Rijo and Arraez can probably do it.
Giles and stroman
For
Kirilloff, Graterol, Thorpe, and Balazovic
Even then Jays will want another prospect or two.
Bro I think that deal is right but only right now as of today, the blue jays asking price will go down it’s just that the demand is so high right now
No it won’t. It’s a sellers market. They can say nope we will do it in the offseason.
Seems fair to me.
Elite? He has a 1.06 whip, and opponent avg . 206. That’s good but not elite.
Hader- 0.71 whip opp avg . 133
16 k/9. That’s elite bub
It can be elite without being the best lol
It’s like you’re asking to get roasted here.
He’s already pickled!
Jorge come take my trash out
Giles numbers not elite? These are only 2 show us all his numbers. Before I can agree I like facts not opinions.
Should do well in Atlanta carving up his former team and burying them from even reaching a WC birth
Ken Giles is very reminiscent to me of another once elite closer, Mark Melancon. Melancon has made several stops in his career. In some he has looked like a potential HOF relief pitcher. In others, he has looked just gawdawful. Giles is about the same. You have to question whether you are Melancon from Houston or Pittsburgh OR Melancon from Boston or Washington. With Giles, are you getting the Giles from Toronto that has been elite or the Giles from Houston that was hit by everyone including himself.
Meh Giles also had two elite years in Philly and one in Houston. Even his 1.5 “bad” years showed misfortune. He was still striking everybody out, just faced some bad balls in play luck.
I am a Tigers fan and I’d obviously like to see them get alot for Greene… but Giles is much better and contending teams are going to want him rather than Greene if Detroit asks too much. Should be interesting.
There is always the chance though that teams might get scared off on the ask for Giles and then pivot to the next tier in Greene and pay that price.
I would like to see Braves get two relief pieces Giles and then Greene would be great
Why not Giles and Hudson?
Seems like this article should be called “Trade Candidate: Ken Giles”
So elite he was left off the All-Star roster. Should have been there.
Strike while the iron is hot with Giles. Could prove to be a terrific setup guy or be an upgrade at closer. All depends on the team.
The Jays arrogant front office will completely botch all of this. They have shown nothing to the fans of Toronto that they are willing to compete at the highest level. Ownership is a very greedy corporation that really does not care about putting butts in the seats as long as the TV audience is high, which it will always be due to a lack of other things to watch.
Also, I wouldn’t touch Giles with a 10 foot pole as it is obvious that he is having some elbow issues right now. If I can see that, I am sure that people who get paid to run baseball teams do, as well.
To your first point, I agree about the front office and ownership. I figured they would have worked the phones hard after Stroman’s start against Detroit. Now it appears they want 1 more start. Let’s hope for the best here.
As for Giles, elbow issues or not, he’s not the only reliever dealing with issues getting guys out. Jays did not cleverly disguise it unfortunately. That says more about the front office and PR department not being prepared for the predictable Q and A. It’s predictable because virtually half the media works for Rogers.