Right-hander Jake Arrieta entered free agency in winter 2017 after a four-year run as one of the majors’ premier starters. Arrieta was toiling as a back-end starter with the Orioles just a few years before, but he turned his fortunes around with the Cubs. Not only was he part of the Cubs’ World Series drought-breaking team in 2016, but he won the 2015 NL Cy Young Award and posted a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9 in 803 innings and 128 starts in a Chicago uniform.
If Arrieta had his druthers, he likely would have stayed on the North Side of Chicago, where he became a beloved figure. However, the Cubs’ Theo Epstein-led front office wasn’t willing to pony up for the Scott Boras client when he hit free agency. The Cubs weren’t alone in that regard. There were reports Arrieta had designs on a $200MM-plus contract when he reached the open market, but after upward of four months in free agency, he settled for the Phillies’ three-year, $75MM guarantee in March 2018. While the Phillies hoped they were landing a front-line starter at something of a discounted cost, they’ve essentially gotten mediocrity to this point.
Arrieta continued his years-long run of durability in 2018, notching 31 starts and 172 2/3 frames, though the results weren’t great. He logged a 3.96 ERA/4.26 ERA with 7.19 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 51.6 percent groundball rate. Respectable numbers? Absolutely. Worth ace-caliber pay? No.
Now 33 years old, Arrieta’s amid his worst season since 2013, when the Cubs pulled him from the Orioles’ scrapheap. He has pitched to a 4.43 ERA/5.14 FIP with 7.03 K/9, 3.47 BB/9 and a 52 percent grounder mark. Despite his continued penchant for inducing grounders, Arrieta has degenerated into a back-end starter. As a result, there’s basically no chance he’ll vacate the remainder of his contract after the season. Arrieta’s pact gives him the right to opt out of his $20MM salary for 2020 in favor of free agency. On the other hand, the Phillies could void his opt-out to pay him $40MM from 2021-22. It appears you can forget that on both counts, though.
Beyond simply looking at Arrieta’s basic numbers, leaks in his foundation are manifest. His average fastball velocity is hovering in the high-92 mph range for the third straight season, down from 94-95 in his best days. As noted before, he’s striking out fewer batters and walking more. Home runs have also become a major problem for Arrieta, who yielded long balls on 10.9 percent of flies from 2013-18 but is up to 21.4 percent in that category this year. Among qualified starters, only the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (whom they chose over Arrieta) and the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson have allowed more HRs per fly ball.
Looking at Arrieta’s bloated HR rate, it’s no surprise he’s fooling fewer hitters than he did during his peak. Arrieta’s 7.4 percent swinging-strike rate is his worst since 2010, when he debuted in the bigs, while his 27 percent chase rate is his lowest ever. When hitters have gone after Arrieta’s pitches, they’ve made much more impactful contact than before, evidenced by a hard-hit rate (37.9 percent) that easily ranks as the highest of his career. And it hasn’t been a matter of bad luck for Arrieta, whose expected weighted on-base average against (.338) is almost identical to his xwOBA (.337), according to Statcast.
While searching for further causes for Arrieta’s decline, it’s obvious a change in pitch usage has played a role. In 2015, when Arrieta won his sole Cy Young, he fired sinkers at a 33 percent rate, complementing those with sliders (29 percent), four-seamers (18), curveballs (15) and changeups (5). Those pitches all yielded good to dominant results – including against left-handed batters, who posted a dreadful .205 wOBA against him. Nowadays, though, Arrieta’s tossing his sinker 54 percent of the time and his change at roughly 17 percent, with his slider (15) and curve (12) next. For all intents and purposes, he has scrapped his four-seamer. Arrieta’s oft-used sinker and slider have been the main the sources of his problems in 2019, according to Statcast, which credits hitters with a .373 wOBA/.372 xwOBA against the former pitch and a .413/.413 line versus the latter. And lefties – whom Arrieta once stifled – have smashed him for a .384 wOBA.
Including his 2019 performance, the Phillies have gotten an OK starter in Arrieta – not the front-line righty they wanted when they signed him. His presence couldn’t help the club to the playoffs last year and doesn’t look as if it’ll be a key reason if the Phillies make it this season. Considering that, it appears the two sides will be tied together through 2020.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
And I wanted to see the crazy opt-out-option thingy used!
Guess he stopped doing “yoga.”
Once you get paid, no need for yoga. People paying attention were saying he and Darvish would be bad money, while others cried collusion when clubs laughed at the delusional contract expectations in both $ and years.
Is “yoga” a designer PED?
Bingo. Watch these guys leave Houston and the same happen.
You’re an idiot
Yeah, Charlie Morton has sucked this year after leaving the Astros. Are you high?
Silly me.. After hearing that he pitched much of 2018 with a knee injury, and had it surgically repaired during the off season, I was optimistic that he’d pitch better this year.
Still a better investment than Darvish.
The crazy thing about Jake is he still believes he’s good. Like he really believes it.
He’s paid more than Darvish though, 21M v 25M. If Jake had taken what the Cubs gave Darvish he’d have made more only because it would have be 146M over 6 years rather than 75M over 3 and if he’s lucky or turns it around, another 15-18M for two more years.
Paid more, but he’s actually been a serviceable starter and should be for another couple of years. If the Phillies ever actually felt like living up to their potential I think Jake would step it up in the playoffs. Darvish is just awful.
Yeah but Jakes only on the books for one more year. Cubs are stuck with their waste of money
Change which pitches he uses
Yet another bust who the simpletons said at the time was collusion when he wasn’t signed lol. All free agents suck. Unless they sign for one year. Never sign free agents for more than a year good thing GMs have figured this out. Continue with the collusion talk though lol.
This is why free agents don’t get paid as much as they think they should any more. And you can say that about a lot of players a few years after their big contracts.
Didn’t realize he was doing so poorly!
Started juicing after he left Baltimore. Karma. Biotch.
I don’t understand this logic. it implies he stopped doing it at some point because he got worse. He’s got money now; shouldn’t that mean he can find better juice to suit his needs?
Don’t feed the trolls.
And he had to juice after he left Baltimore because nobody there would ever juice, not Brady Anderson, not Raffy, not Miggy T….
Come on, Arrieta was juicing when he was with the Cubs. The Cubs knew it and they did not resign him because he would have been busted.
So that was a year and a half ago, has he been busted yet?
Right after Arrieta threw that no hitter against the Reds he started to decline since someone in the media asked him about drug testing while he admitting that he took numerous drug tests the year before when dominated for five months and won the Cy Young award. Arrieta was obviously covering up something in 2015 when he suddenly got jacked and dominated.
why as soon as someone changes their off season work out regiment and gets in better shape, are they automatically “juicing”? I dont really care about Arrieta, but its just such an un-informed comment to make.
“leaks in his foundation are manifest.” Exactly what I was thinking.
I think under truth serum Klentak would admit they overpaid. But you have to remember having Arrieta allowed them to slip Pivetta; Eflin and Velasquez from 2-3-4 to 3-4-5 in the rotation. They were not ready to be a 2-3-4 combination. To me Arrieta was a 2 1/2 last year; a 3 1/2 this year and will probably be s 4 1/2 next year. He hasn’t lost speed on the FB from 2017. A lot of his grounders go thru the infield for singles. I am ok with that signing, I think they also expected him to help develop the other three starters. I don’t know that that’s been a success
Arrieta has been a fairly average pitcher but on the Phillies their second starter.He is consistent but tough on the fielders if they make mental errors.
I do get the impression that he still thinks that he is good.
He is clearly overpriced but it is the owner’s crazy money.I just hope that he is realistic at the end of next year as he is not worth nearly what he thinks that he is worth.
Crazy money is stupid money’s cousin.
Thought he could be one of the horsemen?
You are thinking of blood money.
Every team needs a starting pitcher who will take the ball every fifth day; eat a bunch of innings and not embarrass himself or the team when he does. That’s more the definition of a 4th or 5th starter.
To his credit, Arrieta comes to the post each time his name is called. Works his butt off with stuff that’s obviously a shelf or two down from where it was in his heyday. Not worth $25 million a year, but that’s Cigar Guy’s (Middleton) cheese, not mine.
Key for the 2019 Phillies is for Klentak to pick up a good starting pitcher or two to slot in behind Nola and make Arrieta the #4 or #5 starter he actually has become.
Matt Boyd
Ahh the infamous “innings eater”, AKA a veteran that will pitch a lot of innings, albeit bad innings but 6+ every night out there. These guys could be picked up much cheaper than this guy.
Having the Pirates best chance (in 2015) to win fall short was one thing.
Losing to Arrieta left a bad taste in the mouth and a lot of questions….
…that we pretend we don’t know the answers to…
He is considered a veteran leader in the clubhouse so he gets some brownie points there, but still not worth his contract. He has to be considered a bust. Ironically, Darvish is an even bigger bust.
Plus he’s a tool.