Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.
Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.
The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.
An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.
Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.
Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.
Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs. Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).
Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
They shouldn’t trade Roark but instead sign him, Dietrich and Jose Iglesias to a contract extension! Alex Wood been a bust!
Wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Wood never does take the mound this year. At least he’s in a walk year as well so CIN won’t be saddled with him and his chronic back issues beyond 2019.
DD isn’t a free agent after the season so I’m sure he’ll be back at least for that final year of arbitration
Oh shoot sorry my mistake
The Reds should sign Roark to an extension as he’s an innings eater! They should also sign Dietrich and José Iglesias to an extension! Alex Wood been a bust!
Yes. Because that strategy worked so well with Zack Cozart and Matt Harvey…
They haven’t missed either, no mind!
Which explains why they did the same thing BigRedsFan41017 is suggesting they do now at the trade deadline during their contract years.
Dietrich is a one hit wonder. Comparing him to Cozart is perfect.
tough when a person who knows nothing about baseball makes stupid comments. no comparison between cozart and deitrich, completely different players with different skills.
Bigly, Alex Wood hasn’t been a bust, he’s been hurt. The Reds lack lefty starters, and Wood has put up above average ERA, FIP, ERA+, WHIP numbers, etc. over his career.
Sign him to a prove it extension/contract, and trade the more expensive Roark for a decent prospect or two.
Agree on Iglesias. DD’s future may depend on what Scooter does for the remainder of 2019. Second base is a position that the Reds have very well covered.
Roark has mixed some excellent years with very mediocre years. He’ll also be 33 in October, so he’s far from a sure bet moving forward — the Reds should deal him while his value is high rather than extend him.
Unless of course CIN continues to stay afloat in the division — then by all means keep him through the season.
why trade roark when you are only 4 to 5 games back at the break. add 2 relievers and lets see what we can do
The Reds are not just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, they are only 4 1/2 games out of the division lead. That is a big difference when deciding to sell, 4 1/2 out of the 2nd WC might be a good reason to consider selling. But right now, there should be ZERO NL Central teams considering selling right now.
Assuming the Giants trade anyone. Team starting to gel and JUST 5.5 games back. Plus we get Cueto for the stretch run. The next few weeks could get really interesting.
What’s the end game for the Reds here? Do you really extend Roark when….
– You’re about to lose Puig
– You’re about to lose Scooter
– You’re likely losing Iglesius
– You’ll probably lose Dietrich
– You are 50/50 in re-signing Alex Wood
– Votto is another year old with a nice, fat contract
Are you really prepared to go all out in 2019? Do you have the horses in the minor leagues to obtain the players needed to win? Are you willing to part with the future with little guarantee of a playoff berth?
Put it this way; if you think Pittsburgh should be in buy mode, Cincy is in buy mode.
If Scooter shows nothing, he’s gone. If he gets it going some they may sign him to a moderate, multi-year deal. DD is controllable for another season. Senzel is excellent at 2B if they trade for or sign a quality CF, or, let Scooter go.
Puig may want to stay. Also, the Org may want him to stay. Stay tuned as it seems there is a love affair developing that could get interesting since our fan base loves the guy.
Winker needs to become an everyday player or he becomes trade bait. Ervin could replace him in a heartbeat. Equally mediocre on D, but Ervin is proving to be a very productive hitter.
Don’t really need a soon to be 33 year old innings eater in Roark after this season. Maybe a 2 year deal at most or let him go. Wood is a myth until he isn’t. The core SP’s are Castillo, Gray, Disco and Mahle. If possible need a lefty SP and another lefty in the pen. Lodolo will be up in a couple years to handle one lefty spot.
You don’t get wild as an org with trades with the roster and performance of this team. They have overcome a horrid start and are just now starting to click. Bell is beginning to figure things out a bit better. Having DJ as the pitching coach is making life much easier for him. There’s some talent on the farm they will blend in over the next few years.
They’re all gone. Remember Matt Harvey and Zack Cozart.
The Reds should and will stand pat. The only position I think they could stand to upgrade is catcher. I’ve never liked Barnhart. Not even when he won a Gold Glove. He was just a plug for Mez with absolutely zero pop in his bat. And defense from the catcher position is vastly overrated, given the pitcher’s roles in holding runners and the diminished running game in the Bigs as a whole.
But I don’t know who’s out there who would be an upgrade over Casalli.
Call me crazy, but I like our platoon in LF with Winker and Ervin. Senzel and Puig in CF and RF are nice. Suarez, Iglesias, and Votto are solid, too. The platoon of Peraza and Dietrich doesn’t hit for average, but DD has pop.
I love our rotation and most of our bullpen. Not as in love with Hernandez as Bell is, but he’s not a total loser.
Reds kept Harvey and Cozart because there were no suitable offers. Teams don’t go stupid for these 2-3-month rent-a-players who are pending free agents. Especially when they are as pedestrian as Harvey and Cozart. Would any team look at either of those guys and say, “This is the guy we need to get us over the hump”? If so, they would have to be damn weak at those positions.
In case my “expert” opinion isn’t sufficient …
“Which division race will be the most interesting the rest of the way?
Passan: There’s a reasonable amount of intrigue in both leagues’ East and Central divisions. The AL East has three extreme haves and two tailor-made have-nots. The AL Central comes down to: Does Cleveland sell or take another crack? The NL East is juicy, with the Braves and Phillies and Nats and whatever comes of the Mets. But the NL Central, with the Cubs’ inconsistency and the Brewers needing another Christian Yelich MVP grab and the Reds’ upside-down run differential, is intriguing enough for a realistic shot at another Game 163.
Olney: NL Central. Five teams enter, one team prevails, and the rest will be left to wonder what the heck went wrong.
Schoenfield: The NL Central. Every team is going to end up 82-80, giving us a five-way tie. How do you break that tie? I don’t know! MLB’s tiebreaker scenarios don’t yet include that one. Better put somebody on it.
Doolittle: Like Buster and Dave said, the NL Central is a true five-team race that could be tilted in any direction by key injuries or trade acquisitions. The Pirates have to be considered the long shots because of their antipathy toward aggressive acquisitions, but they’ve also hung in there with a largely underachieving starting staff. If that group gets going, and the Bucs don’t trade Felipe Vazquez at the deadline, anything could happen. The Cardinals are another team with a lot of positive regression lying ahead of them.
Don’t even know what point you’re trying to make anymore with Cozart and Harvey your logic is so absent. The quicker you get it out of your mind that those two players had any value the better off you are. The Reds did not miss out on anything by not dumping them. They were worthless and would have got nothing for them so they held on to them.
They are certainly keeping Puig as he is a key part to Our Success. We are two games out in the loss column for first place. It is anyone’s division. You’re stupid to even suggest Puig should be traded.
Cozart and Harvey did not help the Reds win enough games to compete for the division title. Puig will. His intensity is contagious. Winning is contagious.I can only hope your stupidity is not contagious as we’re all in trouble if so.
I’ll go slowly. chettmixx said that they should extend Puig rather than trade him. I pointed out that the Reds utilized the same strategy with Cozart and Harvey and both players walked anyway. Showing that just because the Reds don’t trade Puig doesn’t mean he will stay. And just because they do trade him doesn’t mean they won’t.
And again, what they missed out on by not trading Matt Harvey was not having to look at or listen to him anymore.