Headlines

  • Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow
  • Astros To Promote Brice Matthews
  • Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers
  • Yankees Prioritizing Pitching, Also Searching For Infield Help
  • Orioles Trade Bryan Baker To Rays
  • Yankees Release DJ LeMahieu
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello

By Connor Byrne | August 14, 2019 at 6:42pm CDT

Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.

Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.

The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.

This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.

Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).

It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 4 Send via email0

Boston Red Sox Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Rick Porcello

Blake Swihart Clears Waivers, Accepts Outright Assignment
Main
Pirates Release Tyler Lyons
View Comments (41)
Post a Comment

41 Comments

  1. Sasha C. Handelman

    6 years ago

    He’d be lucky to get a 2/20 deal. I can’t see a team offering more than that

    2
    Reply
    • badco44

      6 years ago

      I don’t see 2/20, guy has been super stubborn about where he is throwing the ball. Gave up way too many gopher balls last year. Insists on throwing the ball up, and has left way too many up over the strike zone and it’s turned ugly for him. Don’t see him back in Boston

      3
      Reply
      • joshua.barron1

        6 years ago

        I think he’ll be willing to take less to stay in Boston but they might prefer to go with Brian Johnson/Hector Velazquez for league minimum. Not that it’s a major factor, but keep in mind he ‘allowed’ 6ER in 1/3 inning in London so his ERA would be 5.27 not 5.67 without that game. Still terrible, but I imagine not last in the league.

        Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          6 years ago

          I can see a 1 year make or break deal staying in Boston. His durability can’t be understated and part of his issues could be the ball. Unfortunately I think I read it won’t be changed until 2021. Hope I’m wrong. I also disagree with the article in that he was more valuable than Chris Sale the second half of last year.

          Reply
  2. Jeff Zanghi

    6 years ago

    Porcello has been worse than bad this year with the Red Sox. He has at times looked completely incapable of getting anyone out. Honestly I don’t think it would be a good investment for anyone to give him a contract and expect to rely on him performing. I imagine he must have something left in the tank at only 30 so maybe he can rediscover his old form – but I don’t think it should really warrant anything more than a “prove it” 1-year deal or maybe a 2-year with the second being an option/vesting-option as the best case scenario.

    3
    Reply
    • User 4245925809

      6 years ago

      I’d feel better giving Porcello 10m aav next season, even if total of 20m spread over 2y than giving JBJ 10m in 2020, which is what he’ll be making if tendered a contract (9m 2019). difference is, Dombrowski seems to have always loved JBJ for some reason, traded away Porcello when he ran the Tigers for a song (cespedes for 2 months) while Porcello, if never a frontline SP, most part has thrown close to 200 solid innings until this year.

      I’d gladly offer him half the current 20m he’s making to come back for 1-2y as solid as he was over Johnson and Velazquez as #5’s, then say bye-bye to JBJ and find a glove only (what he is) for 1/4 the price if they must.

      Reply
      • deweybelongsinthehall

        6 years ago

        JBJ is worth it for one year with that glove when the rest of the lineup is so strong. I do worry though as almost everyone else on the club is hitting with the juiced ball. I also worry that Devers in 2019 is a product of the ball like so many others. Teams will be overpaying on hitters and underpaying pitchers when the ball gets changed.

        Reply
  3. Melchez

    6 years ago

    I think the tigers shod try and get him as a bridge to the younger guys. Get him in a more pitcher friendly park, he might do well.

    2
    Reply
    • BobSacamano

      6 years ago

      I agree, I always liked Ricky! Unfortunately, I can see him going back home as a Met.

      1
      Reply
  4. chris redsox69

    6 years ago

    Just worthless

    2
    Reply
  5. Ashtem

    6 years ago

    He would be lucky if he gets a multiyear deal

    1
    Reply
  6. cgallant

    6 years ago

    One year $5mil
    Is my guess. Prob the Brewers.

    Reply
  7. Eightball611

    6 years ago

    Minor league deal at best

    2
    Reply
    • Occams_hairbrush

      6 years ago

      That’s ridiculous.

      2
      Reply
      • The Baseball Fan (Doesn’t like the White Sox)

        6 years ago

        No, it’s not.

        Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          6 years ago

          $5 – $m base plus incentives than can double that.

          Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          6 years ago

          $5 -$8m

          Reply
  8. angelsinthetroutfield

    6 years ago

    The major feather in his cap is durability and for that alone I can see him garnering some interest. Say what you will but the guys has averaged 30 starts/yr over an 11 year span

    2
    Reply
    • Occams_hairbrush

      6 years ago

      Exactly. He goes out there and competes every 5 days. . Will he get a big deal in free agency? Obviously not. Will there be numerous teams that want to sign him for short money? Obviously.

      1
      Reply
      • The Baseball Fan (Doesn’t like the White Sox)

        6 years ago

        Define ‘competes’.

        Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          6 years ago

          No injuries of significance. Durable.

          Reply
    • urnuts

      6 years ago

      Agreed and he has value, just ask the Angels who can not find a pitcher can pitch 190 innings.

      I think one year 12.5 or 2 for 22 is good value for him. Still young, has a Cy Young, and could be a strong 3 if he bounces back or worse a 4.

      1
      Reply
  9. jorge78

    6 years ago

    Bounce back candidate for the Rangers!!??

    1
    Reply
  10. Ronk325

    6 years ago

    Spoiler alert it’s not good

    1
    Reply
  11. Johhos

    6 years ago

    With the dearth of ML pitching, he gets a major league deal easy…

    3
    Reply
  12. Dorothy_Mantooth

    6 years ago

    He’ll find a team desperate enough to pay him close to $8M for one year. He is a workhorse; just a bad one!

    3
    Reply
  13. IjustloveBaseball

    6 years ago

    Is Rick Porcello having an awful year? Yeah, there’s absolutely no doubt about that. But, the ability to make 30+ starts a year is arguably more valuable than it ever has been, and he’s one of the best at taking the ball every 5th day.
    It also doesn’t hurt that Porcello has won a CYA and has a solid amount of experience in the postseason.
    Even on the heels of such a bad year, it wouldn’t surprise me if he still scores a multi-year deal–after all, everybody needs pitching.

    Reply
    • Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA

      6 years ago

      It’s actually lesser in value to mlb teams. Teams are stacking depth, and would take less innings at a greater performance than innings eaters. I think that continues to show on the market. I think Porcello sits on the market for a while and comes out with a one year prove it type deal.

      Reply
      • IjustloveBaseball

        6 years ago

        I agree that teams stack depth, and in many cases, choose to go with guys who they expect to provide better performances, albeit over lesser workloads. Part of that though, is influenced out of necessity–as there are no longer loads of hurlers who can be relied on to take the ball every 5th day–the reason why there are less today is for an entirely different conversation.
        Anyway, I wasn’t saying Porcello has more value than said pitchers, rather, guys who can make 30+ starts a year hold more value now than they did in the past.

        Reply
        • Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA

          6 years ago

          Like you said, I think that’s a different convo as to why guys don’t anymore. I think the point is that even though there may have been extreme value to take the bump 30+ times in the past, the game has somewhat evolved to make that trait not inherently valuable anymore, unless you’re say a plus SP. It has some value to rebuilding teams that want to save young arms or maybe a team that with a tremendous defense accompanied by a big park, but it’s just not there for most teams. Being a completely average pitcher, lines him up for a small AAV 1 year type deal maybe 2 (maybe more if a team feels an ability to unlock something), but most likely not. I get what you’re saying concerning the ability to take the ball everyday 5th day, but I’d argue that making 30 starts holds no more value, or less value, than it did in the past even if it’s now a rarity.

          Reply
  14. steelerbravenation

    6 years ago

    Why do I feel like this is going to be the big free agent signing for the Braves ???

    Reply
    • bosoxforlife

      6 years ago

      Anthopoulos has already proven how astute he is by bringing in Martin, Greene and Melancon to restock (destroy) the bullpen.

      Reply
    • larryk317

      6 years ago

      I have to agree with you. Braves looked at him when he was with Detroit a few years back. The asking price was too steep at that time.

      Reply
  15. Lembeck4

    6 years ago

    Still Butthurt that he won the Cy Young over JV, a travesty. Pretty Ricky has been a fine 3rd/4th starter who had one great year. Durable as the day is long, yes, but nowhere near as talented as his pending free agent counterparts on the horizon.

    Reply
  16. weaselpuppy

    6 years ago

    Meanwhile JV keeps crushing the league at 36. How is that other CyYoung thief Blake Snell doing? Crap you say?

    The Cy JV gets this year shoukd be his 4th.

    Karma, little Rickey…

    Reply
    • Occams_hairbrush

      6 years ago

      You think his karma is being a world series champ who has earned over 100 million dollars?

      Reply
    • Bruin1012

      6 years ago

      Well JV probably won’t win the Cy this year either. In fact his teammate GC has pitched better and deserved it more then JV.

      Reply
    • BobSacamano

      6 years ago

      Thief Blake Snell? Karma little Ricky? You are a weasel.

      Reply
  17. tigerdoc616

    6 years ago

    A 30 year old former Cy Young winner will get a MLB job somewhere. Might only be a one year deal. Might get a 2-3 year deal at max. Someone will give him a contract. Just might not be for as much as he wants.

    Reply
  18. FrostyPucker

    6 years ago

    I fear that the saga of Rick Poorfellow has come to an end.

    Reply
  19. koolga

    6 years ago

    He will end up with an NL Team. AL pitchers that need to breath new life go to NL to pitch. Will probably be a 1 or 2 year deal. I suspect he will do ok. He has up and down years and can really pitch when he gets on a good roll. Not been good this year though.

    Cubs? Marlins?

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow

    Astros To Promote Brice Matthews

    Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

    Yankees Prioritizing Pitching, Also Searching For Infield Help

    Orioles Trade Bryan Baker To Rays

    Yankees Release DJ LeMahieu

    Trevor Williams To Undergo UCL Surgery

    Nationals Fire PBO Mike Rizzo, Manager Dave Martinez

    Brewers Activate Brandon Woodruff

    Clarke Schmidt Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Bobby Jenks Passes Away

    Braves Release Alex Verdugo

    Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline

    Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim

    Yankees Have Shown Interest In Ryan McMahon

    Royals Interested In Bryan Reynolds

    Rangers Option Josh Jung

    Kevin Pillar Announces Retirement

    Braves Place Spencer Schwellenbach On IL With Elbow Fracture

    Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin

    Recent

    Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Yankees

    Trade Deadline Outlook: Atlanta Braves

    Which Other Relievers Might The Orioles Shop?

    Lee Elia Passes Away

    Red Sox Likely To Activate Alex Bregman Tomorrow

    Poll: Which Teams Should Make The Biggest Push For Jarren Duran?

    MLB Finalizes Home Run Derby Field

    Astros To Promote Brice Matthews

    Giants Outright Sergio Alcántara

    Joe Coleman Passes Away

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Sandy Alcantara Rumors
    • Luis Robert Rumors
    • Alex Bregman Rumors

     

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version