At times since he debuted in the majors in 2011, right-hander Kelvin Herrera has been one of the majors’ most dominant relievers. Between 2012 and ’16, for instance, Herrera pitched to a sterling 2.57 ERA/2.96 FIP with 9.14 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 48.7 percent groundball rate over 354 1/3 innings. He averaged a whopping 98.0 mph on his four-seam fastball along the way, and was a key reason why the Royals took home a World Series championship in 2015. That fall, Herrera turned in 13 2/3 innings of two-run ball (one earned) and totaled 22 strikeouts against three walks. Herrera hasn’t been the same caliber of pitcher over the past couple years, however, and is now struggling through the worst season of his career.
Things began going downhill for Herrera in 2017, his last full season as a Royal, and continued to spiral last year in a campaign divided between Kansas City and Washington. Herrera still notched an outstanding 2.44 ERA and barely walked more than two batters per nine over 44 1/3 innings, but his 7.71 K/9, 35.6 percent groundball rate, 3.95 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA ranked among the least impressive figures during his time in the pros. Making matters worse, Herrera suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in his left foot in late August.
Although 2018 concluded in unfavorable fashion for Herrera, that didn’t stop the 29-year-old from landing a solid payday in free agency last winter. The rebuilding White Sox, familiar with the hurler from his run with the division-rival Royals, committed two years and $18MM to Herrera.
Unfortunately for Chicago, the Herrera contract has looked like a mistake to this point. Through 34 1/3 innings with the ChiSox, Herrera has limped to a 7.08 ERA. Only two relievers who have accrued 30-plus innings (David Hernandez, whom the Reds just released, and the Orioles’ Branden Kline) have had more trouble preventing runs than Herrera, whose average fastball velocity (95.8 mph) sits as the least imposing of his career. Unsurprisingly, a drop in swinging-strike rate – 10.8 percent, the worst of Herrera’s majors tenure – has accompanied his dip in velocity. At the same time, with 4.19 walks per nine, Herrera has issued more free passes than ever.
Herrera’s new status as one of the game’s least effective relievers has come with a change in repertoire. According to Statcast, after throwing his four-seamer anywhere from 40 to 60 percent in previous seasons, he’s down to 32.8 percent this year. Hitters have tattooed the pitch, though, with a .483 weighted on-base average/.421 xwOBA. They’ve also had plenty of success against his sinker (21.9 percent; .432 wOBA/.364 xwOBA) and cutter (10.3 percent; .375/.391). Conversely, Herrera’s non-fastballs – his changeup (21.5 percent; .218/.225) and slider (13.6 percent; .202/.220) – have stymied the opposition. Perhaps he’d be well-served to rely more on those offerings.
Regardless of pitch choice, it does seem Herrera has encountered a bit of bad luck this season. His fielding-independent pitching marks, including a 4.73 FIP, are all much more respectable than his ERA (although hardly great). Hitters have also victimized Herrera for an unsustainable .378 batting average on balls in play, which sits well above his career .292 mark and has come in spite of a low average exit velocity. Herrera’s mean exit velo against (85.8 mph) ranks as his best in the Statcast era and falls in the top 7 percent of the league. The .339 xwOBA Herrera has yielded is still unimpressive, but it looks far better than the .370 real wOBA hitters have mustered off him. Meanwhile, Herrera has only stranded 63.2 percent of runners – down from a lifetime mark of 77.7.
Herrera and the White Sox will, of course, hope fortune starts going in his favor over the next year-plus. As of now, though, this doesn’t have the makings of a successful signing for the club, which committed much more money to Herrera than any other free agent last offseason. If Herrera does bounce back in 2020, though, it could go a long way toward helping the White Sox snap a painfully long playoff drought that’s sure to hit 11 seasons this year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Has anything gone the White Sox way the last 6-7 years?
Jose Abreu signing… trading Robertson/Frazier/Kahnle for premier prospects…
other than that, prob not.
Blake Rutherford? So far ,he’s only a mediocre AA guy. No other prospects in that trade in our system
@Hiro
Just a little off on that statement. I’m thinking you meant trading Sale/Q/Eaton for premier prospects.
The Robertson/Frazier/Kahnle trade only netted one prized prospect, which has fizzled so far. In fact, because Rutherford has the look of a bust, that trade may end up being more of a salary dump than anything else.
Rutherford had a brutal start to the season but has been solid since June. I wouldn’t write him off just yet. Plus, Birmingham sucks for hitters.
The Reinsdorf era short of his 2005 revival of Damn Yankees has been an unmitigated diaster.
@sf52
But Reinsdorf does have a WS ring, so I guess it wasn’t that much of a disaster. How many other owners long for just one WS ring?
Yes. That would include ownership on both sides of Chicago.
The White Sox were brutal under Comiskey family ownership following the 1919 Black Sox scandal. They finally relinquished controlling interest in the team with the sale of the club to Bill Veeck in 1958. Veeck never won a ring in either of his ownership stints with the White Sox but did manage a pennant in 1959 along with some entertaining clubs including the 1977 “South Side Hitmen”. The brief Allyn Brother ownership in the 1960’s had some exciting “Go-Go” White Sox teams up through 1967 but could never muster a pennant on the South Side of Chicago. The Jerry Reinsdorf era produced 5 AL Division titles and their one World Series championship in 2005.
The Cubs didn’t fare too much better under the Wrigley’s as majority owners since 1921 but did manage to produce 5 NL pennant winners between 1929-1945. The Tribune Corp. had some success with postseason appearances but never had a team reach the World Series despite twice being one game away. This included the 1984 heartbreak in San Diego when the team needed just one more win after defeating the Padres twice in Wrigley Field of a 5-game NLCS. They repeated this in 2003 in a 7-game NLCS versus the Marlins with the infamous “Bartman” incident in Game 6 and the Alex Gonzalez error in Game 7 in Wrigley Field. The Cubs reached the postseason twice more under Trib ownership but were swept out in the NLDS twice, by the Diamondbacks in 2007 and the Dodgers in 2008. The Ricketts family bought the team in 2009, hired Theo Epstein following the 2011 season and finally secured the Cubs first World Series title since 1908.
Yes, they are 16-11 against NYY, Houston, and Cleveland this season. Ricky’s boys don’t quit like the Cubs!
@Bocephus
There you are, you little rascal. I’ve been awaiting your return. Of course, you were disguised as chicubs_city and/or mike123, but the real you has resurfaced.
Welcome back good troll. Dogbone has been doing so much of the heavy lifting in regards to trolling, now you can ease the pressure off him a bit. Dogbone’s trying his best, but his trolling has been flat lately. I’ve been giving him thumbs up to give him encouragement while struggling with his lame posts, let’s hope it works.
Good luck the rest of the way through high school, you and Dogbone have so much to look forward to once you graduate.
BTW, I will give you a thumbs up for your lame post to encourage you also. Dig down deep, I know you have at least a mediocre post in you.
@bocephus. You are hilarious. You have a 60 year old man confused with a high school student. Do you think that Blake Rutherford will ever be a major league player? I don’t. And yes, Herrera is a bust. Can’t throw a MLB fastball
Relief pitchers have struggled so bad this year, it hasn’t been this bad in nearly 50 years, I don’t know what the cause of it is, but he isn’t the only one who has struggled. I guess it could be the balls are juiced like some people as well as players have stated. I don’t know how much validity that carries but who knows it could be the truth. If it is as sure as hell hope they don’t change it and keeping doing whatever they are doing to the balls. Home runs are the most exciting thing in baseball and I’m sure the MLB knows that. This would attract more people to the game, therefore generating more revenue for the MLB.
Juiced balls lol
Didn’t like this signing from the get go. He’s way too short to be a power reliever.
Craig Kimbrel and Billy Wagner say hello.
Except for ex-Sox Quintana, the entire Cubs pitching staff has fallen apart.
Another road game, another 11-1 Cubs deficit early on the road. Cole Hamels will go back to IL. Ha!
Meanwhile the Sox embarrass Houston’s Pressly and take 2/3 from a favorite to win WS. Eloy hit another monster HR! Ricky’s boys don’t quit!!
Cubs will drop to 3rd by Sunday.
No one mentioned the Cubs you moron. You make Sox fans look stupid.
Stop defecating into your hand and flinging your poo like a monkey.
Wait a minute. That’s an insult to monkeys everywhere.
Astro’s took the white Sox so lightly, they rested starters in the series. Alex Bregman didn’t play in either game of the DH yesterday.
U…R…A…MO….RON
Again I’m sorry for this moron who posts these things. I’m convinced him and chi town 311 are the same guy and definitely not a Sox fan. Maybe just use the cards or the Brewers as your anti cub team please and leave the Sox out of it
The Kimbrel mention opened the door.
Cubs 2-4 on yet another road trip! Ha!
BS.
Bregman had an “owie”.
Sox playing without Moncada, too.
Agreed, there’s always one of thee clowns making Sox fans look obsessed with the Cubs.
@Dogbone
Astute observation. You would think the Astros would learn from taking the Sox so lightly the first time around this year, but apparently not. You have a very keen eye, young troll.
For that, I will give you a thumbs up for your lame post, as motivation to come up with a mediocre post. I know you can do it, Dogbone!
Too short!!?? Really!!??
After he dominated for
years!!?? I call you out
sir!
Ok?
Not sure what the point of this article is. Herrera is just a minor piece to be flipped for assets at some point. The team’s still in rebuild mode, so it hardly matters that he’s having a bad year.
You’re delusional if you think anybody wants Herrera for “assets”
Royals traded him for two prospects last year.
He is making $8.5 million, money that could have been spent elsewhere or allocated to Machado.
It was a questionable signing and absolutely impacts the team’s ability to sign other players.
Move on The infield isn’t going to be a problem for this team. Spend the money on pitching and hope it doesn’t break.
This team is probably ok on pitching front, if the guys they have develop.
They need bats. Worst hitting team in ML baseball since break.
Pitchers are fragile; you can never have enough.
They are horrible at hitting because they’re playing a bunch of bums that will be off the team within 2 years. They’ve also been without Yoan, Tim, and/or Eloy for different stretches throughout the second half. Replace bums like Engel/Cordell/Jay/Yolmer/Castillo/Skole with a combination of Robert/Madrigal/Mendick/Collins/Mercedes/Vaughn, and you’re very likely to see substantial improvements on offense over the next 2 years (not to mention the failed experiments of Palka/Rondon/Alonso/Reed).
The only place on the field they don’t appear to have a legitimate answer within the next 2 years is RF, which is why Harper always made more sense than Machado (plus the fact he’s a lefty). Rutherford has been good after a brutal start; same for Gonzalez. Basabe still has all the tools, but he has been dealing with injuries most the year. Maybe (hopefully) one of those guys surprises and takes over RF by the middle of next year. Personally, I believe Steele Walker is the guy long-term, but he’ll take another 1.5-2 years to get here I’d imagine. We’ll see how it goes, but there’s a lot to like.
Reinsdorf doesn’t spend $9M a year, on anyone freely. Certainly Reinsdorf is way too cheap to spend that much, for a ‘flip’ candidate.
@Dogbone
Oh yes! Another morsel of wisdom from you. And spot on. Well, except for Abreu, Robertson, Dunn, Danks, Konerko, to name a few. But we’ll just ignore them, they are outliers.
Reinsdorf clenches his money so tightly in his fists, he puts holes in the money with his fingernails. You will never see him spend so wildly as to give $26MM to a prospect (with a matching penalty, of course). As we all know, a fool and his money are soon parted.
For yet another astute observation from you, I will once again give you a thumbs up.
The only management stupid enough to sign him has him.
“Has him”?!
That contract was a head scratcher…..
Corbin Burnes has a 9 ERA in 46 innings
9.0 ERA better than Hamels lately.
Here’s another free agent reliever the Red Sox passed on. Dave Dombrowski is so stupid, right?
Passing on free agents who haven’t been all that great this year doesn’t really excuse the disaster of a bullpen he has his hands full with
I’d say. Kinda laughed when I saw the notification with that title.
We don’t need a whole article to figure this one out.
I will admit, this is a guy I wanted the braves to get. Glad we didn’t. To be fair though, if he played on a better team, he’d prob do a little better. Pitchers are funny when it comes to the mental side of the game and playing on a good team makes a difference
Next year will be the time to start evaluating how good or bad the team is, not now. Most of the current roster will probably be gone a year from now anyhow. The organization is focused on acquiring talent and developing players. Period. As for your Braves, I wouldn’t get too cocky if I were you. Pitching is still a problem with that team. With owner unwilling to spend on free agents, all that position talent won’t matter.
Maybe the injury caused him difficulty in planting his foot. His fastball location is off. Either way he’s gone next year but hopefully in 2020 he’ll return to form. It’s not like his arm is shot.
who would’ve thought an injured reliever with diminishing stuff and bad peripherals wouldn’t work out
Teacher, can I answer, can I answer?
Is the answer, Jerry Reinsdorf?
There’s something very unsettling about your comment…
@Dogbone
HOHOHO, yes! For a 15-year-old, you are so incredibly wise beyond your years. You will have to excuse me while I change my clothes, for I laughed so hard at your lame comment, Dogbone, I wet my pants.
For your side-splitting humor, another thumbs up for you.
To the writer- thanks Captain Obvious
To be fair, everyone at the time of the signing thought it was a good move. So the hindsight author and peanut gallery can sit on it.
Kelvin Herrera is still just 29-years old. If he posts numbers like he has done throughout most of his MLB career he can still make good on this contract. This season has been a bust but it was not one in which the White Sox where expected to contend. When they signed Herrera and traded for closer Alex Colome it was also done with an eye toward 2020 when the White Sox figure to be more relevant.
Colome should continue as the White Sox closer in 2020 barring an offseason trade. Hopefully Herrera will be his primary right-handed setup man, the guy the White Sox thought they were getting in 2019, to pair along with southpaw revelation Aaron Bummer.
Btw: Herrera also has a 2021 $10M vesting option with a $1M buyout. The vesting option automatically kicks in with Herrera appearing in 110 games total during 2019 and 2020 along with at least 55 of those coming next season. He will also need to pass a physical at the end of the 2020 season.
Thank you Aaron. As usual very informative information.
Luckily for the Sox, they can stick him in a middle relief role until he figures it out. The backend of the bullpen has been excellent at closing out games this year. They very, very rarely lose games when they have a lead late.
Unfortunately, they lose a whole lot of games when the don’t have the lead late. They’re not a good early to middle innings team.
They hit but don’t pitch.
They pitch but don’t hit.
I think the guy is just hurt.
He looked good at the beginning of the season.
Kenny-Hahn forcing the issue again because of their fraile egos.
He was equally as bad in Washington last year. He’s been this bad since leaving KC.
Among Herrera, Castillo, the friends of Manny and Santana, Hahn shelled out about $30 million this year on guys who have given the team next to nothing, and who have or can be easily replaced, right now, by guys in the system.
It’s been a recurring theme. Hahn has paid out a lot of money for players with existing red flare who end up flaming out.
It’s a terrible sign for the rebuild.
If every team replaced more low upside veteran players with minors, the strike would’ve happened already.
There’s a bigger picture to all of this. A picture many armchair GMs fail to see.
Not saying Hahn shouldn’t sign/acquire vets.
Saying Hahn stinks at signing/trading for vets, which is a sign of an issue with pro scouting.
For every McCann there is a Keppinger, LaRoache, Shields, Alonso, Jackson, Rollins, Castillo and Latos.
This year was especially brutal and wasteful.
And if anything leads to a strike, it’s service time manipulation, which Hahn is at the forefront of doing.
It’s a touchy issue as some teams are truly rebuilding and using systems to their advantage, while others use such manipulations for a tank.
I really think this era of tanking is the problem. White Sox have parted with powerhouse contributors to MLB in return for rebuild tickets. Those tickets are a complete embarrassment if not given the opportunity to come up.
Economic factors should be considered as well. High profiting teams who tank make a lot of players and fans sick to their stomachs. And they not only get away with it, but it somehow becomes the new normal?
These other teams, who game the system by tanking, should be looked at more closely in my judgement.
I’m not too worried, it’s not like he’s single-handedly bringing the team down with his play and his contract. Yes, this season’s a lost cause for him. Get him healthy and see what he can do next year. Maybe he bounces back to what he was before last year. If not, the Sox just suffer through one more year for an overpaid subpar RP and pay the $1MM option in ’21, and wash their hands clean of him.
They got taken to the cleaners in the Dunn, LaRoche, and Danks deals and stayed afloat, Herrera’s contract isn’t going to haunt the Sox for years. And if he’s this bad next year, just stick him in a mop-up role and eat the money for one more year.
Unfortunately, the shift in numbers for Kelvin are more than glaring. So anyone can write up a piece saying the team “should’ve thought of that” or “doesn’t know how to assess”.
I agree, some players have bad years, adjust poorly or are not given the attention they are accustomed to with other organizations. Sometimes I wonder if the White Sox have so many pitchers to tend to, some of the vets are brought in expected to deliver without given a fair share of attention, and if that is somehow the problem?
But that’s business.
@bocephus. You are hilarious. You have a 60 year old man confused with a high school student. Do you think that Blake Rutherford will ever be a major league player? I don’t. And yes, Herrera is a bust. Can’t throw a MLB fastball
@Bocephus
I found one of your classmates, kamkz99, and he’s a real winner. I have no idea what he was trying to say, his first statement made no sense. But he was adamant because he posted the same incomprehensible comment twice. Since you have a basic command of the English language, Bocephus, you should tutor kamkz99 before he flunks out of high school.