It isn’t uncommon for any free agent and team to profess some level of mutual interest as the player approaches the open market. Still, given the amount of connection between the White Sox and Jose Abreu, it still seems a bit surprising that the first baseman is still slated for free agency here in late October rather than already locked up to a new contract extension.
GM Rick Hahn said back in May that “it’s certainly very likely that [Abreu will] be here” once the Sox emerge from their rebuilding phase. Abreu himself has expressed his desire to remain on the South Side on multiple occasions, and even said in August that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had unofficially promised to keep him in the organization. So, while the two sides didn’t discuss an extension during the season, it still wouldn’t be a shocker to see Abreu and the Sox reach a new deal while the club still has exclusive negotiating rights (Abreu won’t file for free agency until five days after the end of the World Series).
That said, the lack of known movement towards a new contract could be some due diligence on the team’s part, as they weigh the pros and cons of re-signing a player who will turn 33 in January, and has only been pretty good rather than great over the last two seasons.
After Abreu’s first four MLB seasons resulted in a .301/.359/.524 slash line and 124 homers in 2660 plate appearances, the slugger’s production took a step backwards in 2018 and 2019. Injuries played a role in Abreu’s relative struggles in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2019 wRC+ (117) was only a touch higher than his 2018 production (115 wRC+).
Abreu’s 40.7% hard-hit ball rate in 2019 was the highest of his career, and he finished in the 94th percentile of all hitters in exit velocity. He also ranked in at least the top 18 percent of hitters in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and had a career-best 12.8% barrel percentage.
On the down side, Abreu has only a .328 on-base percentage over the last two seasons, and his 21.9% strikeout rate was the highest of his career. He has never been much of a baserunner, limiting his ability to beat out grounders despite the fact that opposing teams rarely deploy a shift against him. However, opposing pitchers have been feeding Abreu an increasingly large number of sliders over the last two seasons, with increasing success — Abreu had only an 89 wRC+ against sliders in 2018 and a 66 wRC+ against the pitch this year.
Beyond the Statcast numbers, there’s also the simpler lefty/righty split, as the right-handed hitting Abreu has been increasingly less-effective against right-handed pitching. 2019 marked the first time that Abreu was a below-average 99 wRC+) run producer against righties, dropping down from an also so-so 107 wRC+ in 2018.
There are enough question marks here for interested suitors to be wary of signing Abreu to a pricey multi-year pact in free agency. Despite the fact that Abreu looks like the clear best option (unless the Cubs inexplicably cut Anthony Rizzo free) in a relatively thin market of free agent first basemen, teams have shown that they are increasingly unwilling to pay big money for anything less than an elite production from the first base/DH positions.
Plus, the White Sox hold some significant leverage on Abreu’s market in the form of the qualifying offer. If Abreu was to reject Chicago’s one-year/$17.8MM offer, a new team would have to give up a draft pick in order to sign him, which could give even more clubs pause. Issuing the QO results in three potential scenarios, two of which are good for the White Sox — either the draft pick compensation depresses Abreu’s market to the point that they can re-sign him at more of a club-friendly price, or perhaps Abreu simply accepts the qualifying offer and the Sox retain a player they like but not at a multi-year commitment.
The third scenario, of course, would be that the Sox recoup a draft pick via the QO but Abreu signs elsewhere, which would be no small loss given Abreu’s mentorship role on a young White Sox team. As Hahn himself said, “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.” Perhaps moreso than most teams, the White Sox are a bit more old-school in their approach, and thus are more prone to go out of their way to keep a player who continues the Frank Thomas/Paul Konerko tradition of a franchise cornerstone first baseman, especially as the team looks to finally get back into contention in the AL Central.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Lots of numbers here except the biggest. He led the AL in RBI with 123 this season and was second in all of baseball.
Traditional stats like the RBI are on the pay no mind list by this site and others.
This guy must be trolling bringing out RBIs on us
RBI’s? Ha ha. Runs aren’t what wins games. WAR is what determines who wins. I think.
So you’re telling me that if he had all the exact same hits, but only half the runners were on base for all of them than were for what really happened, that he would be a lesser player?
The two most annoying types of fans in baseball on display here: old school guy who thinks advanced metrics are useless and new school guy who thinks all advanced metrics are perfect and that old school stats mean literally nothing.
Pitchers do in fact change their approach with runners on base. You are less likely to see a curve in the dirt with a guy on third, for example. RBIs aren’t by any means a great indication of a players offensive contribution. But to discount them entirely is also silly.
Right on!
It’s not silly to discount them. Of all the old school stats to scoff at, its RBI’s. they’re like pitcher wins for batters. If you want a true indicator of how good a guy is with men on, then look at his splits.
RBI’s are entirely dependent on other players doing the only job a hitter really has (dont make an out, or if you do, make it move a runner over) though.
Exactly this.
So…we don’t want runs driven in? Because most things that are useless, I don’t want.
If you put Jose Abreu in the Orioles line-up. do you think he will have more or less RBIs’s than if he was in the Dodgers’ lineup? Assuming he posts the same BA/OBP/SLG. wRC+, etc.
amen
Somehow a winning team has to score runs, so the capacity to drive runners home is a measure of a team’s capacity to win. Whether you like the RBI stat or not, my guess is you would agree that there are no bad players with 100 or more of them. You may prefer other, more esoteric stats, especially some that defy explanation. I think, too, that reliance on the convergence of selected statistical measures to identify good ball players obviates the need for judgment in the evaluation of personnel. There are now so many statistics, and no agreement about their relative merit, that it’s easy to say that none is “by any means a great indication of a player’s offensive contribution. But to discount them entirely is also silly.” If we accept your premise then none of us ever has to make any kind of judgment because the numbers will yield conclusions all by themselves.
The point here is that you can never know what would happen had Abreu been in the Orioles’ or the Dodgers’ lineup.
Yes, it is possible that Abreu would have had 100+ RBI’s on the Orioles. But the chances of it happening are much lower than if he were to be on the Dodgers. But in order to score multiple runs is also needed to win games. RBI’s are much to reliant on other factors outside of the batter’s control. If Abreu were to bat leadoff, he obviously isn’t going to get too many RBI opportunities, regardless of what team he is on than if he were to bat 4th or 5th. Another large contributor is how good the batters in front of you are at getting on base. It’s why Pujols still has fairly high RBI totals, and Rougned Odor had nearly 100 this year. A much better way at looking at if a player is good at driving in runners is their numbers with runners on base, or RISP. It does’t matter if the batters in front of them are good, or whether or not they’re batting leadoff or 3rd to change their batting average with RISP.
Rougned Odor had 93 but had a 79 ops+. 93 is close to 100, and he is still a very bad offensive player.
There are no bad players with 100 RBIs? That is so untrue. I count at least 11 players with 100 RBIs and also negative WAR in the same season, led by Ruben Sierra’s ghastly -2.6 WAR season in 1993. But hey, he had 101 RBIs. Great player right?!
It matters the context as with Abreu it seems like he is one of the few that is legitimately clearly better with RISP. Over his career Abreu is hitting 322/396/555/951 with a 105/172 BB/K ratio. With no one on he hits 283/331/499/830 with 100 BB/453 SO. It’s really unusual to have this significant a difference over a meaningful sample but it seems somewhat relevant to trying to figure out Abreu’s value
WTF!!??
Abreu’s RBI total is like 70 if Moncada and Anderson weren’t good at their jobs.
Actually you must of not watched many White Sox games. While both Mondcada and Anderson were good at their jobs they did not always bat 1 or 2 in the lineup. Abreu always batted 3rd. Anderson made over half of his starts (69 starts) batting behind Abreu in the lineup and Moncada made 36% (48 starts) hitting behind Abreu. Moncada missed 29 games this past season and Anderson 38.
Moncada and Anderson batting 1&2 in the same game only happened 5 times.
The White Sox were so good that Willie Jay batted 3rd,4th and 5th this year, and he knocked in a whopping 9 runs. The White Sox are a joke, but cut them some slack. They’re only in year 8 of their 12 year rebuild.
A player leading the league in RBI’s is usually a pretty damn good indicator that he has a good if not great Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position. I looked it up, Jose Abreu hit .337 in 2019 w/ runners in scoring position. RBI’s matter. I made an account just to make this comment. Big White Sox fan, hope they sign Abreu
He’ll be back. The mutual interest of both the team and player, plus the veteran leadership for all the young talent on this team will get him another contract. My guess is 2 years, $20-$25mm
That might be a little low. Jose Abreu earned $16MM in arbitration last season and figures to at least get a slight raise to remain with the White Sox after his bounceback 2019 season. The qualifying offer this offseason is $17.8MM so I would expect the White Sox to tag Abreu if a contract extension can’t be worked out while the club still has exclusive negotiating rights for their slugging first baseman.
Jose will be back. Good ballplayer, good mentor for the young guys, and a loyal team member. The Sox will make the playoffs next year and Jose should be a part of that. The youngsters are coming along but Vaughn is not ready. Let’s give Jose a two year deal. Not real impressed with all the statcast numbers, and I think much of it is for the bird(brains).
Their plan is QO to get him at a cheaper rate. Basically no on will give up a draft pick for a 1B/DH and they’ll screw him over until he ultimately accepts their low ball offer for 1 or 2 years.
I do expect the White Sox to tag Abreu with a qualifying offer if the sides can’t reach a contract extension before he elects free agency. Why would Abreu accept a “low ball offer” for one year with a QO already on the table?
Abreu’s going to reject the QO and elect to be a FA. Which will end up with him accepting a lesser contract ultimately. It happens every year. Why is Moose on a 5M a year deal?
I really doubt he declines it. There have too many players who have been screwed going that path recently
Abreu and his agent should have a pretty good idea of what of the parameters of a contract extension will be before the team offers him a QO and before he needs to accept it. You best believe his agent will be asking for a multi-year deal with an AAV of at least the $17.8MM QO amount to kick off negotiations. The White Sox will likely counter with an amount below that figure. If the White Sox offer is substantially below that number on their final offer and they still extend him the QO then Abreu will accept it and take his chances the following offseason when he can’t be tagged again.
Keep in mind that the relationship between Abreu and the White Sox is not a typical one. Both he and the front office, especially owner Jerry Reinsdorf, desire Abreu remain with the only MLB organization he has ever known. Abreu is the face of the White Sox franchise and the team also needs veteran leadership as they transition from rebuilders to contenders beginning in 2020. Abreu remaining with the White Sox is a no-brainer that many fans outside of Chicago just can’t grasp, especially with an owner who exudes loyalty to a fault.
Almost every FA.to be should demand a trade or extension before playing their final year to remove the QO.
@ phillyballers- every free agent to be should have voted against the CBA that put the QO into place….,.
*during their final year. Just need to be on one roster for an entire season to get a QO.
True at the deadline cause a stink.
This is not the NFL…..
Any star MLB player could take a page from the NBA or NFL and skip games due to a fake injury if a trade demand isn’t met.
Rarely am I first at anything. Note that Mark states and rightly, he may not be great, but still good. Seems he still has value and should get a modest extension. No place like home Jose.
White Sox are a perennial, irrelevant team. Abreu should move on from AAA and join a MLB team.
K.
2014 2-3 years away
2015 2-3 years
2016 2-3 years
2017 2-3 years
2018 2-3 years
2019 2-3 years
2020 2-3 years
White Sox are two years away from being two years away.
LOL!
L
You are full of CFAP!
Really? When was the last time White Sox made the playoffs?
200F
I wouldn’t sign Abreu long term because they just drafted Andrew Vaughn who will quickly rise through the minors and he is limited to 1b/DH and clogging it up long term with Abreu wouldn’t be smart
What?! Rizzo is not going to be a free agent! That’s crazy talk! Cole is going to be the best free agent pitcher unless the Nats release Scherzer, Abreu is going to be the best free agent first baseman unless the Angel’s cut Pujols, then Pujols takes a time machine to 12 years ago!
I certainly hope the comment about Anthony Rizzo being cut loose from the Cubs was made in Jest !!!!! In my opinion, the Cubs cutting Rizzo loose would be compared to the Cubs cutting their own throats.
Yankees should be all over this like fly on sheet
Yankees are 1B/DH rich
They have an odd addiction to power hitting righties. So this wouldn’t be a shock
Speed and defense are important aspects to remaining valuable as a player ages. Receiving nothing from either puts massive pressure on a player to produce power numbers that can prove elusive for an older player. The more they press, the worse they get.
Up the middle players who fade can be moved to corner spots if they can get on base and hit the odd homer here or there; corner infielders just become unplayable at a certain point.
I honestly do think they will tag him with a QO.
Rick Hah. Is the most egregious service time manipulator, so it goes without question that he would use any trick available to reduce the amount they either have to pay him in an extension, or use the QO to block him into a one-year deal.
That was probably the plan all along, given the fact that he wants to stay, and had a very solid year as a run producer.
Frankly, Hahn should go that route, given that Eloy is about a year away from getting a first/baseman’s mitt, and the fact that Vaughn could conceivably be ready for MLB next offseason.
Andrew Vaughn for Kyle Tucker, who says no? Why?
They’re not trading Vaughn.
Until they are.
At this point, ChiSox. Tucker looks lost in the post season. Vaughn still hasn’t shown anyone he might be overrated.
White Sox seriously needed to either extend or trade Abreu by the trade deadline. Or just trade him when they sold off Sale, Quintana and Eaton in the first place. There was no benefit to having Abreu on the team the past 3 years.
I’m sure it was considered, but the Sox didn’t get any quality offers for a player they like and respect.
They’re gonna get even less than that for him now.
What quality packages did the White Sox ask for that was turned down by other teams
Even a lottery ticket would have been better than letting Abreu reach free agency as a White Sox.
Up your butt, JoeBoo