NOVEMBER 25: The Seattle organization has announced the signing.
NOVEMBER 22: The Mariners and first base prospect Evan White are in agreement on a six-year, $24MM contract that contains three club options, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). The contract, which can max out at $55.5MM if the options are exercised (via Robert Murray), locks up a key piece of the Mariners’ future before he even sets foot in the Majors. White is represented by True Gravity Baseball.
White, the No. 17 overall pick in the 2017 draft, spent the 2019 campaign with the Mariners’ Double-A in Arkansas, where he batted .293/.350/.488 with 18 home runs, 13 doubles, two triples, a 7.3 percent walk rate and a 23 percent strikeout rate in 400 plate appearances. Those numbers were particularly impressive in a pitcher-friendly setting, evidenced by White’s robust 132 wRC+ (indicating that he was 32 percent better at the plate than the average hitter in the Texas League).
From a broader offensive standpoint, the University of Kentucky product has performed well throughout his minor league tenure. He hit .277/.345/.532 in a tiny sample of 14 games of short-season Class-A ball in 2017 after being drafted and followed that up with a .303/.375/.458 slash in a full season at Class-A Advanced in 2018.
White is also regarded as a superlative defensive first baseman, with scouting reports at FanGraphs and MLB.com pegging him as a 70-grade defender. He currently ranks in the game’s top 100 overall prospects at MLB.com (No. 58), Baseball America (No. 73) and FanGraphs (No. 77).
The extension in many ways mirrors the long-term deal signed by Scott Kingery just prior to the 2018 season. As was the case with Kingery at the time, White is a 23-year-old top prospect who is widely expected to be a key contributor for his club in the near future. Both deals guaranteed the player $24MM over six years, though Kingery’s option years are valued at a slightly higher rate, as his contract can max out at $65MM. That’s perhaps reflective of the fact that Kingery, unlike White, had already played in Triple-A and was perhaps on the cusp of making the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training. White, meanwhile, could still be ticketed for some Triple-A time to being the 2020 season, although the long-term deal should increase his chances of breaking camp with the team. There’s no longer any reason to play service-time games and option him to Triple-A if he convinces the team of his MLB readiness with a strong spring effort.
White is suddenly the only player on the Mariners’ roster signed to a guaranteed contract beyond the 2021 season. The 2020 campaign will be a pivotal one for the “reimagining” Mariners, as they’ll get their first glimpse at White and quite possibly (later in the summer) at vaunted outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic (acquired in last winter’s Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade). Lengthy auditions for lefty Justus Sheffield, righty Justin Dunn and outfielders Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley — each of whom made his MLB debut in 2019 — are likely on the 2020 docket as well.
Hopefully he can hit.
Why
So that they control him at a fair team price for an extra three years if he performs how they expect. And if he doesn’t perform well, he gets to fall back on $24 million.
Wouldn’t he have to play like a near-superstar in order to earn more than $24M over the next six years? Even if he was a Super-2, he’d be hard-pressed to earn arbitration raises big enough to out-earn this contract.
Good for the players, I guess. They needed a win.
If JBJ is in line for $11M in year 3 of arbitration (after $8M last year) he would NOT have to play like a super star to make $24M over 6 years. Mariners are taking a gamble for sure, but the real value here is in the option years. If he does become a star, they will have a bargain on their hands for his last 3 years of this deal. This is really a win-win deal for both sides.
not when super stars can earn up to 30+ million or more their last 2 years
Love it! He’s going to be a gamer for years.
26 and is in AA, he could become a 4A player. Numbers alone, he is a suspect.
If you’re talking about White, he is 23 and will turn 24 in April.
He’s 23
AA is widely considered to be the more competitive league these days.
You shouldn’t comment on a player with no knowledge in regards to them.
don’t let this distract you from the fact that Gerrit Cole hasn’t signed yet
THANK YOU! The nerve of the MLBTR media these days.
This is the one prospect I’m not that excited about. Great defense but not much power in that bat. I think he is will be a poor mans hosmer (the kc version). Hopefully I’m wrong…
Seems completely unnecessary.
Weird……….
Team gets cost certainty he gets life changing money. Good deal all around.
Cost certainty of what?!
If he comes up and rakes, they have set salaries that will be club friendly and can avoid the uncertainty of arbitration. It’s a gamble on both sides.
The only thing that is certain is that hes done it up to Double A.
Not doing it in the majors is included in their calculation. Their probably guaranteeing 2/3 of what they think he would cost instead of going year to year plus the option years as a bonus. I think it means they think he’ll be league average at his peak with additional upside which is what most prospect people are saying.
@cold beer
Wrong again. Another thing that is certain is what he will cost the team financially on a max level for the next 9 season. That is now a certainly defined amount
Stick to cold beer
@cold beer
Cost certainty for next 9 seasons thats what
Hopefully it ain’t jon singelton part II
If it is then it’s no worse than Ellsbury or Chen being released. But there’s a lot of possible upside.
He was old for AA.
4A potential at his age. Better prospects enter the league at 21-23.
He was drafted in 2017. Being in AA this year is right on target. Nothing about that screams 4A player. I’m not even a Mariners fan and I still say: move along, dope
Almost a full year younger than the average player in the Texas League. Sure, a lot of top prospects reach Double-A sooner, but he can’t control the rate at which the Mariners push him through the system.
“Almost a full year younger than the average player in”
Not relevant.
There are legions of guys younger than the average player in their league who will never be anything in MLB.
This is like saying the number one prospect in MLB’s worst farm system is valuable because that guy is that teams best prospect.
Wow, are you dense. Just wow.
Please stop now. Your attempt to make a point related to age was atrocious to be polite.
The guy only has 2 full minor league seasons under his belt. He’s not moving at a slow pace if that’s what you’re trying to get at. The talent level between AA and AAA is not all that great. With more top prospects being in AA. So you’re really grasping here.
How is that not relevant? He was responding to a commenter who had stated that he was old for the level.
It was 100% relevant.
Also relevant was his remark about how the Mariners have handled him. Local reporters have suggested that they kept White, Lewis, and Walton in AA because they believed they would benefit more in way of development from the the pitcher-friendly Texas League than in the hitter-friendly PCL.
Of course its relevant. The only thing that is not relevant is any of your posts.
Too soon?
Hopefully he doesnt turn out like Jon singleton
My first thought with these types of deals
Well he probably doesn’t smoke weed all day.
That was Singleton’s downfall. He now had 20 million bucks to smoke his life away.
Even if it does turn up to blow up, it probably is a worthwhile gamble. This AAV is nothing for these teams. Scott Kingery already almost provides the Phillies worthwhile value on their entire investment in one season.
he’s a nice 2020 ROY sleeper. nice hitting 1B that’s been slept on a bit by prospect evaluators recently.
I suppose all 2020 rookies are potentially ROY candidates.
It looks like the Ms spent more than they needed to.
A club option at $10m a year by 2026 is robbery.
Ya, to soon to offer this kind of contract.
Jerry must be bored
I get the allure of these deals for the team, but if I were the GM I would only be trying this with the can’t-miss guys that put up way better numbers than this. Otherwise I’d want a full season of MLB production before going this route.
Once White gives you a year of production he’s not taking a guaranteed 24 million bucks. That’s the risk/return here. But is there really that much of a risk? If white stinks you lost the equivalent of one bad FA reliever contract. There’s just very little risk for the clubs in doing this. I’d look at it like a Venture Capital investment. If you give out 3-4 of these and one hits big you still wind up in the black.
It’s just a small gamble for a ML club. I’d take the gamble nearly every time on a young guy.
exactly. its smarter than getting a 20 a year free agent. of course the more of these deals u do the better chance you have. like to see a guy took a lot of money and secure his family’s future. I can think of countless guys that turn down money only to fail
Not sure if you think it is unnecessary for White or Seattle. This is a great deal for Seattle there is a small chance he fails in the bigs. It is a good deal for white he is protected from injury or the small chance he fails.
As of now White doesn’t have a ton of power but that could happen later. Even if he doesn’t there is nothing wrong with having a high OBP. We have all fallen in love with the HR and think guys who hit for a high OBP are not good enough.
I am tired of seeing guys like Vogelbach go up and swing the bat and not even come close to getting a hit. He has that weird 3/4 swing and his approach doesn’t change from strike one to two. It is all close your eyes and swing hard. Most of his HRs were the first month and a half when the team was hitting and playing crazy good.
Locking guys like this long term is a very good move. Hopefully they can lock up some more of the young guys to deals like this. There is a chance he far exceeds the contract value. The same with some of the others. Kelenic is another guy they need to sign long term. I doubt they do this year but hopefully next. Sign them and get years out of them before they become FAs.
What a great/brutal deal. If he turns out to be good and the options beat, he’s a free agent at 33.
If he turns out to be good. You also have to remember that he wouldn’t start on the ML roster this year without this contract. Now there’s a chance he does. But it’s now irrelevant to him if he doesn’t. So you figure he wasn’t going to be a free agent until he was 31 if he didn’t sign it. So he’s really just giving up 2 seasons of free agency and the arb salaries for a guarantee now.
He puts a limit on his career earnings but for a 1B prospect who was facing the reality of entering free agency at the first time at 31 years old anyway; I don’t think he did so bad.
Jerry loves his 1B.
only to trade him away in a month or so!
Well, he’s not being overhyped by the yankees, so there’s a solid chance he will make it.
9-year-old’s comment.
L
A worthwhile gamble. Power in AA is promising. It is a much more pitcher-friendly league than the PCL, so I’d rather see a 132 wRC+ in Arkansas than Tacoma.
The floor on White is solid regular on a non-competitive team, because of the OBP and defense; the ceiling is occasional All Star. And I think there’s a better than average shot that he reaches that ceiling. If he does, good deal for Seattle.
The KEY here (the “soft metric”) is how does he react? With 24M in the bank, does White think that he’s arrived? What effect does the reality that his reward is already pre-determined have on his effort, conditioning, and overall habits? That’s really the most important factor, out-weighing all this “measurement” fiction; metrics are a RESULT, not a cause.
That said, White seems to be a high-character type, who’ll continue to work at his craft. As I said, IMHO it turns out pretty good for the Mariners.
As a Mariner fan I want to understand their motive behind this better. I think White can be very good, but if he IS very good, they’re still paying ~$55MM for what already would have been a relatively cheap period of his career. And if he’s a total bust, that’s $24MM down the drain.
Could someone help me understand this from the Mariners perspective in a money/value sense?
most players will earn 24 million pretty quick if they are good. think about this way if they were to go out and spend 24 million dollars in the open market and get two players or even one I still don’t even have that great of odds of it being successful. this way for the cost have a 2-year lower cost free agent you get a chance this guy for a long time. if you signed three of these deals two of them are bound to work out even if it’s only 1 you will probably still pay no more than a free agent and they still have plenty of risk. this is the kind of deals that can give you a lot of payroll flexibility down the road and change the course of your organization if you get lucky on a few. even if you get 1 out of 2 you wont lose money
In 6 years when the options kick in, $29M over 3 years will be way below market. Overpay now for financial flexibility in the future. If he’s a star, even better.
This deal is all about the control of his expected first years of FA eligibility. Additionally, it gives the Mariners a controlled cost over his arb. years, which if a player performs well, can result in lofty salaries.
It is a curious risk the Mariners are taking, but realistically, White is arguably taking the bigger risk here.
Rip Ryon Healy.
He was let go awhile ago.
This is great news!!! I picked up White in my Roto League towards the end of the season as a speculative guess to which prospects might make their teams 25 man roster come spring training 2020.
Am I the only person who sees DiPoto as a terrible GM? This guy is clueless.
He can’t be that clueless, he did get Jarred Kelenic from the Mets while convincing them to take Robinson Cano in return.
What has he done that suggests that really? I think he earned a bad reputation in Anaheim but I feel the owner meddles with the baseball decisions a lot there. He’s had a pretty decent run in Seattle trying to build them back up. There’s certainly a strong foundation that he’s responsible for.
Probably, southpaw, especially considering this could be a very shrewd move and he’s completely rebuilt a barren farm over the past few years. He’s in the middle of the pack for GMs.
Bats right and throws left. Very intersting how that can happen
Ala Ricky Henderson
My younger brother throws left but bats right handed. He was born left handed but growing up and playing in our backyard, I taught him how to hit right handed because I’m right handed. Hence the throws left, bats right. He turned out to be a pretty good switch hitter in HS
I hope the M’s haven’t removed that incredibly powerful carrot by paying him before he performs instead of afterword.
Jerry is betting on data. He said repeatedly last season that White was leading all of MiLB in exit velo, despite not being a power hitter. He came into pro ball as a well disciplined contact hitter who hit alot of line drives. Prior to last season they tweeked his swing a bit to give him more loft and he hit his 18 homers. If he hits, he’s locked him up for about 2-3 years worth of what his market value would be.
Good comment and spot on. I agree this is not a bad a move. Low risk and potential bargain.
So, he’s never even played in AAA and he plays the least valuable defensive position?
Yeah, give him 8 figures.
He’s guaranteed $4 million LESS over 6 years than Felix took home in 2019 alone. How did that work out?
but in real money it’s more like 10 million less. pay has gone up a lot since then
AA is a way harder league to hit in and he would be a top 3 defensive 1B in the bigs right now. Led minors in exit velocity and can play OF when needed.
He sounds a lot like Cody Bellinger did before he came up to the majors. He’s got more speed and could play the outfield if needed. He’s also got solid hitting tools (less power, but a higher expected hit rating than Bellinger did) and solid plate discipline.
Stop the nonsense please. Don’t put him in the same breath as Bellinger yet.
From all the things I hear, he sounds like he’s out of the John Olerud mold, Can hit for avg, but not really ‘traditional 1B power’, but plays gold glove type D and this guy I guess doesn’t clog the basepaths(Like Ole John did…LOL) and is considered one of the better base runners in the entire system…Lots of intangibles to this guy which should make him more Scott Kingery(+3.0 WAR last season) and less Jon Singleton(a total bust)!
I really like the Will Clark comparison made above. If he becomes a Will Clark type, Seattle gets an absolute STEAL here. If he completely fails, then the $4M/yr amount does very little to Seattle’s ability to field a competitive team. In order to get this deal, the club has to think very highly of him so this is a really good gamble on Seattle’s part, and also a good deal for White too. He has life changing money locked up and now can focus 100% on his craft and not worry about stats/playing time come arbitration time.
What are they doing with vogelbach then
He’ll continue to DH, like he did in 80 of his 129 starts last season.
Ok this got done now get Hanigar to the Braves
Poor Vogy.
He’s not losing his roster spot yet, he just won’t be the primary first baseman anymore and besides, he’s a DH at best.
Poor Vogy
This is like getting a tattoo now that says Seattle Mariners 2020 World Series Champs because you’re so confident they’ve got it won you just can’t wait until it actually happens.
Not sure why so many people care what billionaires and major corporations do with their money. The Mariners/Nintendo clearly think White is worth the investment and is a risk they are willing to take. Ya’ll feel so entitled to decide what right/wrong investment of other people’s money is.
The fans understand that there is an economic aspect of a move. They just lived through the end of Felix’s contract.
UMMM Nintendo doesn’t own the team anymore. They have a very small stake but no say. Sold the team almost 3 years ago. I agree with the sentiment though. I think the only thing dumber than some of the comments was me for reading all of them.
Yeah, I actually forgot Nintendo sold majority stake in the team, my bad. But as for the Felix comparison and saying fans understand their is an economic side to every move, that is ridiculous. The white and Felix deals aren’t remotely comparable at 6yr/$24m (9/$55.5m) vs. 7/$175m.
I never said it was exactly comparable, it was a case in point. Don’t get your panties in a twist, but then again you get triggered by fans commenting on investments.
If he becomes a valuable major leaguer this is a huge win for Seattle. If that happens, they just signed him from age 24-32
For 55.5 million dollars. He gave up his “big shot” at FA with this deal. It’s basically the opposite of NOT betting on yourself. He also gets more money right now and in the next 2-3 years, than he otherwise would have. And the obvious caveat here is if e fails, the Mariners wasted 24 million pretty badly. Good bat, great glove, already has good college experience and good minor league experience? I like it for Seattle. Not as much for he player, unless he doesn’t fulfill his potential. But who knows, maybe he was broke and needed some cash now. Slight nod to Seattle. But like any trade of acquisition…..we have to wait and see! Doesn’t matter what any of us think!!
Think of it this way, he can afford to buy himself and his parents houses right away, He can go on vacations right away, He can buy himself state of the art equipment for working out at home (i.e. home gym, batting cage, etc.) Eating healthy also costs money, and for those that think well he got his signing bonus. Take 3.25M and give away 30% or more to the government. So now he has $2.25M, while that’s a lot of money, if he properly invests it, he will never have to work when his baseball career is over. By signing this deal, he can still invest in his future and create a retirement plan, but most importantly, there is no limit to the quality of life he can enjoy as a 23 to 24 year old. I would give up a lot to have the ability to travel the world, and experience whatever interests me without worry of cost while I was still young. At almost 40 years old, time goes quick. Anyone who talks about the Trout money or to be more realistic, maybe the Hosmer money he might lose.
A) Free agency is a crap shoot ~ Free Agency is getting worse for players with no easy fix in sight.
B) Might be getting more than arb would guarantee ~ If he doesn’t sign this deal, he waits half a year to reach the majors and could have a rusty 1st half which delays him even more. This means that best case he’s earning pro-rated league minimum in 2020, league minimum in 2021-2023, and $3.6M, $4.5M, and $7.5M in arb for 2024-2026, which equals $17.5M for his first 7 years and only gets hit to free agency by 31 instead of 33.
C) Age of free agency ~ Most 2 WAR players in free agency at around 31-33 are making between $2-3M and as much as $7-10M, he’s already guaranteed the higher side of that total with his option years. By doing this, he also ensures that he either gets $55M or he’s a free agent going into his age 30 season, a year earlier than he otherwise could expect.
D) Cost to Play ~ Players have to pay for their own equipment, their own cars, their own food, and I’m pretty sure he’s at least thinking about settling down with his girlfriend or future girlfriend in the next couple years.
E) Getting Older ~ At 24 next year, he’s just starting to exit prospect status, he isn’t going to be worth more than he is right now.
F) Not Broke/Don’t Fix ~ If he believes in what the Mariners are doing, this is the one way to make sure you stick around and keep playing with the guys you have been with your whole career.
G) Money Isn’t Everything ~ More than $25M versus a “huge arbitration and free agency payday” is like comparing a company giving you a $100 per diem versus a $500 per diem for your business associate that neither can’t be rolled forward. You can eat whatever you want at $100 a day, so who cares if the guy next to you gets $500, he’ll never use it anyways. What is he going to do, order three filet mignon instead of 1 for all three meals? At some point debating about lost future income at the cost of potentially being out of baseball with less than 15% of that seems stupid on so many levels.
H) Betting on Himself ~ Maybe this is the ultimate betting on himself, because this could be him betting he’s good enough to still get a huge payday at 33 years old, good enough to be a hall of fame player, good enough at investing to make $25M today be worth more than $100M in a decade!
***Arb numbers were taken from the player requested totals of Brandon Belt, which is usually a little high but probably accounts for inflation. You can verify at the link below.
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
Actually, there are plenty of clueless baseball fans who think Dipoto is clueless. He’s doing a solid job fixing the mess left by Jack Z.
He’s doing many correct things, but whether he produces a winner is to remain to be seen
Selling high on Edwin Diaz and packaging him with an aging cheater in Cano borders on genius. An absolutely brilliant transaction!
Great move I agree but genius? It’s the fairly obvious move but had the Cards traded Carpenter before the year or earlier I’d be calling it genius myself.
Fairly obvious move? Dipoto was ridiculed and lambasted by most for trading away a dominant young closer with so many years of club control left.
What? That deal was a steal from day 1 even if Cabo and Diaz weren’t terrible. I don’t remember anyone blasting Dipoto. Maybe clueless Mariner fans who don’t think long term. Heck, getting rid of most of Cano’s awful deal and getting Kelenic alone made it worth it.
Bottom line: 23 years old in the Texas league , 92 K’s vs. just 29 walks in 400 PA, with decent, but not eye popping game power. (29 HR in 1000 PA last two years)
This is not a smart move.
Clearly you are out of your depth of comprehension if you truly think what you posted tells the story. First off, you mention homeruns but ignore his .488 Slg this year on AA. You also have zero idea about park factors which makes that even more impressive. Throw in his gold glove level defense and you have a pretty solid player.
Time will tell but to make a statement of fact in it is absurd as you have no factual basis if it’s a “smart move” anymore than anyone else does.
Big risk, may be a big reward on a very cheap deal if this guy becomes something productive at the big league level. We’ll see.
I’m a big fan of deals like this for the players, but never got the team. In general I believe the kids have to have some mlb experience before landing a longer term contract. Like, you know, actually being able to get to the clubhouse first. But hey, not my money, not my problem. Good for White here
They think he’s ready now, 6/24 mil plus is less than what they think he’ll cost them during that time, and the options have enough value to make the deal worth it.
We M’s fans are still shell shocked at how our last youth movement went. While these things can work great, see Astros and Altuve, Springer, Bregman, Correa, Our names were Ackley, Smoak, Zunino, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, If I’ve forgotten anyone then they were obviously forgettable.
Hopefully the kid hits like Edgar Martinez..