With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.
To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.
It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.
Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.
Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.
Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…
Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Nats, 4 years/$80MM
He could likely get 3/75MM from ATL. Then at 38 he could probably get more than a 5MM one year deal. So why would he do that?
Security, for one. What are the chances of a 38 year old infielder getting a contract?
If he can still hit at all….pretty good for an AL team to give him more than 5MM
Thats a big assumption considering younger guys (Steve Pearce, Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Jose Bautista etc etc) have fallen a cliff a lot sooner than 38 and with the way DH is being used more to rest players instead of designated player to bat.
It also locks him into a home for 4 years instead of moving at year 3.
No way he devalues his AAV that much for a year.
Why not 82m for 15 years?
Wow ok. Bryce Harper turned down 4/180, Cole 8/300. Time proves Total Guarantee is more important to these guys than AAV.
LH…Harper and Cole both got record setting contracts. Donaldson can not be compared to them given his age. He has much less leverage.
Harper was just turning 26 and Cole is 29. Much easier to bury those late 30’s declining years into a long term contract when your paying for all those prime years.
Also Harper and Cole are represented by Boras. He has been getting every last million and extra years on contracts better than any other agent for many years.
It speaks to the players priorities. Each deal pays them through their age 38 or 39 season.
Yea I think that 4th year at a significant discount seems unlikely. I’d bet her could find 5 million somewhere even if that means playing overseas not to mention that extra 5 million for a 4th year isn’t gonna make a different to his future financial security… lol. Hey I hope you’re right and I hope that the Braves get him at that rate. But I don’t see it. I think in a reasonable market, 4 years 80 mil is good for him, but this market easily suggest otherwise
Braves won’t let him go to their biggest threat for that. He will be back where he wants to finish his career, no doubt.
Sounds about right
Nats have some pressure so I can see them caving and giving the 4th year. 4 years $75 million but I can see it being $80m as well. In comparison to the $210 million they offered Rendon at the end of the season it may seem like a bargain to the Nats
Closer to $100m than $75m, especially if it goes 4 years.
Braves don’t need Donaldson at 100 million. Use that money to sign Madison Bumgarner. If Shaw is still out there, try and sign him on a 1 yr. deal. Maybe try and get Castellanos. Braves aren’t hurting or in a desperate position.
Why does anyone think he’s gonna sign for 4 years 75-80 mil? If Moose got what he did and he was everyone’s safety net, JD will get a lot more. 4 years $95-$100 worse case… likely more
This might be the first post you’ve ever had that didn’t cause another reader to make sure they hadn’t been transported to an alternate universe.
He is not getting less than 4 years and $100MM – that’s the minimum to sign him.
feel like this is Atlanta’s race to lose now
Yea but every day that goes by and every person we add, makes that vision less likely in my opinion. I hope we get him… but his price better be worth what he produces for us
The braves are probably sticking with their original plan. Sign Donaldson for 1 year and bring up Austin Riley to play 3rd. They can still act like they’re going to resign him both to help out Donaldson and to ensure they get the highest level of draft compensation.
Just don’t think they’ll go 4/$100MM that’s the minimum it will take. My bet is that he gets 5/$125MM from the Twins because he can DH for sure in the AL in 5 years.
Refreshing seeing big names signing before Xmas again
I agree. Even if my Rangers aren’t getting any of them. I much prefer a faster paced free agency.
Rangers will be in on Bryant. Say Bryant and Heyward (they have to take him) for Winn and Jung.
Doubt it.
Interesting swap but probably too unconventional for MLB thinking. I don’t think Texas would deal two of their best prospects pre mlb debut.
braves 4/84
Chipper Jones (I know, I shouldn’t compare the two) played on a team friendly deal from his 34-40 years. Frankly Josh is in better condition than Chipper. I say go 4 years $100M and trade for Marte too. If pirates are willing to take Ender, Bryse Wilson, and Pache, we would have a solid line up.
No way, leave Pache out of that trade.
The replace Pache with Riley?
Well the pirates aren’t just going to give up Marte’s contract. You do realize something of value will have to go back? That trade seems light on thr braves side to me
Pache? That’s nuts. I wouldn’t trade Pache straight up for Marte. I would like to have Marte, though.
Word is, Waters is the better all around player of the two, I think he will be moved. (Pache)
Atlanta needs to keep both. Waters, Pache & Acuna outfield for the next 10 years. Especially if they can get Waters & Pache signed like Acuna & Albies.
Gotta give something to get something. I would love to see that group in the outfield too, but right now we are in the window and need to strike for someone that can help get us over the hump. I have a feeling we will get a 3B bat (FA) and an OF bat (trade) and maybe a SP (trade)
Exactly. How on earth can you expect to get Marte (considering contract situation) without including one of your very top prospects. Its unrealistic.
They’re just going to cheat by turning on commissioner mode and sending a bunch of junk back in return and force the trade. Real life works like video games, right?
For the braves it sure does.
The Braves DON’T NEED anything bad enough to trade the future away for a couple of years. If you are a Braves fan, get off this trading prospects thing.
According to scouts Waters is slightly more advanced today but Pache has higher upside.
Braves get Donaldson back 3/75
At the end of the day, Donaldson is still 34 years old. Sorry Josh,you’re going to be the victim of bad timing
I’m looking for the Nats to swoop in and get another Atl player . Who better right now to replace Rendon at 3rd ?
Mets 4 years $116 million @ $28 per.
Might want to check that math partner
$112 @ $28 per, thanks.
Sorry, MVP Sports Group accepted your initial proposal. Your math “skills” just got your team an extra $1 million per year, so ownership will probably fire you this season.
4/105. No way is he signing under 25 a year
If the Nats sign him it’ll be 5 years $150m just because that’s what the Nats do.
With $100M deferred
truth
Someone will be foolish and give a 34 yr old with an injury history a bad 4 yr contract. My guess is the Nats.
He had one season of injuries. He was healthy last season, made changes to his diet to sustain long-term health. He’s not walking on glass feet.
Try two. He only played 113 games in 2017 and 52 in 2018. Donaldson is on the wrong side of 30 and 2 of his last 3 season he has missed a good amount of time due to injury.
That’s one full season or injury which I think makes sense to identify. He was very healthy last year and people aren’t talking enough about going Vegan…its a game changer and will make the 4th year a little less risky. Still a risk, but going Vegan improves muscle condition and helps tremendously with inflammation. It’s TRUE. Meat eaters wont buy in but those of us who have tried it know the serious advantages
Yeah not playing on that turf in Toronto helped with the injuries as well.
There’s a typo at the top that it should be 2015 MVP instead of 2016
Whoops. Thanks for that. Updated.
Nats 3yr 66M In the end, a 34-year-old just wont get overpaid like the rest of the market.
You think he’s going to make less than he did last year for AAV?!
Thats what i said
Fair enough. Stupid take, though.
I don;’t think it’s a stupid date. Four years 90 million sounds about right.
That’s less than he made last year.
1 yr contract for age 33 vs 3-4 year contract starting at 34. What is stupid about the comment? And why do you feel the need to call someone stupid? To be honest his take is more valid than yours.
1 year contract where he provided more than 23MM worth of value, thus earning a bigger payday. Also, calling someone’s idea stupid is not the same as calling them stupid.
The AAV will go down over a 3 year contract is the point. Look at any free agent who has already signed this offseason. Would cole hamels have gotten 2/36 or 3/54? What does Cole get on a 1 year deal, 50 million? More?
I 100% agree. Him getting more years and the team taking the risk with his age I can definitely see a lower AAV. It’s best to work it out like 28, 26, 20, 16 mil. That’s the best way to look at it even if they do 22.5 across the board…
He could. Take less on a longer-term contract,
He could.
But he won’t HAVE To.
With all the interest and escalating salaries…..
……I think he’s getting at least a 3/75 deal from someone (probably the Nats)
That’s probably what he should get but you will be wrong and of course bc you are on the low side.
Have you heard of Supply and Demand? you should read up on this concept
The Braves and Nationals will start a bidding war for him as both teams are so close and should be fighting for the division. That is unless one of them gets hammered with injuries of course.
I think it will be another overpay for either team if it’s more than 3 years and $75 million. That seems to be the market this year though.
Won’t matter everyone knows nats won’t be back there this year knife gonna get max or strats
Your crystal ball must be nice to have.
Would like to see a poll like this for Ryu
Aw Josh Donaldson, what a tremendous player he turned out to be. A’s Billy Beane dragged him out from the cubs when Josh was a catcher. Oakland needed to replace Eric Chavez at third – Eric was leaving as a free agent – and the A’s gave Donaldson the chance at the hot corner and what stub Josh turned out to be! Just an incredible athlete, Donaldson is deserving of his contract! So what he is only 34? Age is so overrated in our Country.
It’s not overrated. Its statistically proven and relevant. He deserves a solid contract, but even if healthy the stats show he is going to fall of a cliff at some point. That’s why stats works.
Everyone is sure that ATL wants him back. Riley hit well last year & was a 3B in the minors, does his glove not translate well there in the majors? Just seems easier and cheaper to grab a bat-first LF and put Riley at 3B, maybe letting them target Ryu or Bumgarner?
Riley hit well for a month. Then, Riley hit no more.
He needs work, he needs to learn to hit offspeed stuff. Until then?
So blocking him for three or four years is a better option? If so, he needs to be dealt ASAP before his trade value has been diminished.
If the Braves resign Dinaldson then Rikey will likely be used in a trade for SP. The Braves really want to hold onto Pache, Waters, Anderson, and to some extent Wright as well. I think in the RIGHT move they could be dealt but I don’t see that move out there right now.
Although Riley, Wilson, and another piece or 2 could be enough to get the TOR starter the Braves have been looking for.
Riley can play left field too. Or can be traded. If he is in the OF look for Waters/Pache to get moved. I’d move Waters in a deal for Marte if we sign JD. Riley is an unknown but if he gets right and hits 5 for this team we have the best offense in the league. I see why AA is playing it safe by not giving him a definitive role, but clearly hasn’t given on up him. I’m excited about this team.
Pretty sure no one would “take Carpenter.”
3 years around 60m. Anything more then that someone is going to really regret. My guess is the nationals.
Well it’ll be more than that money-wise for sure. I don’t know that Donaldson will get more than 3 years, though.
teams are uping the value for donaldson so much that every one will drop out and he’ll have to take a one year deal again
I had no problem at the beginning of the off-season with a 4 year deal as long as the 4th year is some sort of vesting/team option. Bringing JD back frees up Riley to start in AAA’s outfield or trade for an established corner outfield bat and really lengthen the lineup.
@ffjsisk
I like this idea too. Resign Donaldson has to happen first though. Then trade for either Marte, maybe Eddie Rosario, or a TOR starter.
Whichever of the 3 make the most sense in terms of what Atl would have to give up.
I think he will ponder offers in the 3/75 to 4/80 ranges. I guess it will come down to what he values more (higher AAV, more guaranteed $$$ or playing for a contender). I would like to see the Twins swoop in and sign him.
Nats, 3yrs-93mill
Anywhere but DC or Atlanta Please,
Why is that? Those are two of his four biggest suiters.
Dodgers 3 year $80M with a player opt out after 2
Steven, I chose “Other” but I also choose not to specify in the comments, as the poll requested. I just don’t feel comfortable sharing my thoughts on this private matter at the present time. Thank you for your understanding.
How could so many people be wrong!?! Braves will be outbid and rather easily. This is probably Donaldson’s last big contract and he will take the money, I’m almost positive here. I give the chance of him returning to Atlanta at about 5-10% at best.
More realistic for the cardinals IF they add Donaldson would be just eat the contract of carp and use Him as a bench LH bat. They usually carry one and the whole team is heavy RH. No one is taking that contract unless you take a bad one on or add a qualify prospect. Might wave his trade clause if it’s that vs bench.
I’m fine with the Braves getting him for 4 years $100 mil. Would hope he sign for a fraction less like 95 mil but whatever. My big thing is, I think the Braves should trade Ender regardless, but especially if we sign JD. Free up a tiny bit of cash to invest in a different option… maybe pick up better hitting outfielder or hope one of our top prospects come in hot. I think even if 3B goes unfilled this offseason, Ender is our biggest weakness. And I know that’s a bold statement
Why aren’t the Phillies an option?
They’re listed as “Other”. Back in olden times, I believe the team name was going to be the Philadelphia Others. I have no evidence to back that up, but I said it on the internet, so whatever I want to believe is true.
You definitely seem olden. Like the comment though. Haha
Because no one likes the Phillies and we all hope they continue to blow their money on worthless contracts for the rest of time
Hard to imagine Donaldson barely has 1k hits but 44 war
When Billy Beane-Pitt invented WAR back in the aughts, he wanted to have his defense-oriented players look better than they actually were, so he added a much of defensive statistics to increase a player’s WAR. When he taught WAR to other GM’s in school, they ended up learning all A’s players had higher WAR than their own players. Since Donaldson is an excellent defensive player, he gets more WAR than the other children.
WAR was created long before Beane was the A’s GM
He was joking.
WAR is a stupid stat, I wish it never came out. Some analytical stats are ok and are worth looking at but traditional numbers still tell more than analytics do
Nats, 3yrs/$82.5MM ($27.5MM AAV)
Nats would be nuts to not sign Donaldson. Soto did well because he had Rendón ahead in the line up. Without a legit bat at 3rd, NATS can forget about scoring as much as 2019 & winning as many games. Come on Rizzo ? Also get a f-ing closer!
Donaldson had a .900 OPS. How does he not have a legit bat?
I find it hard to believe Donaldson is going to get the kind of money and years being thrown around in the media and on message boards. He’s kind of old and I know his OPS has been good but there’s just something that doesn’t seem right to me about him over the last few seasons. Yes last year he definitely improved over the previous season but still I can’t see him getting over $15 million a year for two maybe three seasons. I feel like if the Nats wanted to spend over $20 million a year on a third baseman they would have just re-signed a younger and better Rendon. Teams seem to get wrapped up in over paying guys as soon as a couple of other teams do it.
But Rendon didn’t sign for $20 million a year. He signed for $35. It hasn’t been just a couple teams over paying either. Cole, Strasburg and Wheeeler all got more than the industry expected.
The bidding between teams is what drives market prices over what seems sensible.
3yr/$81mil Braves
I got the Braves signing him for 4 years 85-90 mil. I would prefer 3/75 but I think it will get pushed a little higher due to demand.
He wants to stay in Atl, AA wants him back, Snit wants him back, and I’m sure Freeman wants the protection back! As long as the figures make sense then Atlanta is where he will likely be.
Based on the poll results, the readers are clearly voting based on what they want to happen as opposed to reality. He’s not signing with the Braves. He would have already done so. Instead, he understandably wanted to enter a bidding war, which the Braves will never win. He’s getting the fourth year and he’s getting somewhere in between $90-100 million or more because that’s what the bidding war will lead to.
He just came out and said he wants to return to ATL so saying, “it’s not going to happen” is complete and utter hogwash. He has 3 teams bidding up his final contract in the mlb, it’s genius to get every penny you can to set up for his retirement.
He’ll end up making $15 million more milking this out and probably an incentive-laden 3 year where if his options are vested will secure him a 4th year if he plays his cards right.
“He has 3 teams bidding up his final contract in the mlb, it’s genius to get every penny you can to set up for his retirement.”
I said he UNDERSTANDABLY wants to enter a bidding war, so that sentence was completely unnecessary. In fact, your entire reply was complete and utter hogwash. Everything I said is true. Sure, he may want to return to Atlanta, but it’s more than evident he’ll follow the money, so that eliminates the Braves.
I stopped reading after you said he’s not signing with the Braves, he’s making his most likely destination (ATL) pony up a little money for his final contract, that’s all.
If he was younger I would agree with you, but he’s not and ATL will find a way to bring him back.
How come you’re assuming everything you said is already true though? Quite the statement based on personal opinion.
I stopped reading your complete and utter hogwash.
At least you’re not original at all. It’s OK, I know the IGen can’t take any constructive criticism whatsoever without feeling like theyre being called out or patronized and have to get defensive right out of the box. Happy offseason and merry spring training.
Calling my rationale for Donaldson not returning to the Braves “utter hogwash” is not constructive criticism. Google the term before you misuse it again. Bottom line: I’m 100-percent correct about JD signing elsewhere and anyone who sees differently is in denial. Happy offseason and merry spring training.
Oh I wasnt calling you’re “rationale” utter hogwash at all, just the fact you’re completely writing off one of the 3 teams in the running and THE team he absolutely wants to play for.
Only time will tell and until then we can simply agree to disagree; when he does sign one of us can say, told ya so.. (he’ll be back)
After much thought and several imaginary conversations with JD and his agent we have a deal in place. Three years with a team option for a fourth, $80m guaranteed, $29/$26/$25, $23 for year four. Opt-out clause after year two, limited no-trade clause; full no-trade first two years, 8 team only list last two years (JD-#4/Braves-#4). Maxed out contract total $103,000,000.00.
Gotta run now, Theo Epstein is on hold.
I doubt he’d be willing to give out a team option in this market unless we horribly overpay him. Otherwise creative thinking here and reasonable for sure
I 100% agree. Him getting more years and the team taking the risk with his age I can definitely see a lower AAV. It’s best to work it out like 28, 26, 20, 16 mil. That’s the best way to look at it even if they do 22.5 across the board…
Signing a 34 year old to a multi year deal is a bad investment. Hard pass.
Offer 2 years, $55-mil with a $25-mil team option. Kick in $1-mil on the option if JD has 1000 plate appearances in the two seasons.
Hopefully not the Braves
The braves will give 3/70 with a vesting option for a 4th year worth 22 million. If he doesn’t take the braves offer and just wants money, I don’t see it happening he wants to be back in Atlanta, the nats will give him 4/104.
Why if the Cubs are such a good team and the problem is starting pitching why would you trade Kris Bryant and create a hole at 3rd base —
Who’s calling the Cubs a good team? They’re so bad they let go of their manager.
They have alot of very good players but they just need more pitching well and a guy to play 2b Cubs are better than Pirates – Reds – Brewers problem around MLB is there isnt enough decent starting pitching — Cubs just want to be cheap is whats up here
Cubs finished in 3rd place in the division and did not even make the playoffs. They are not a good team. That is the point.
Rangers should offer same as they did Beltre $96mil/6years.
Braves 3yr/82M
Lock up Donaldson and throw an offer at Cleveland for Kluber. Offer up some combination of Riley, Wright, Wilson, Waters,or one of the catcher prospects. If the cost of prospects gets a little too rich I’d ask to include Inciarte. Free up some cash in the process.
Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.
For 2020, I would love to see Donaldson back with the Braves. Beyond 2020 tunnel vision, I would rather see the Braves trade for Kris Bryant.