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Archives for February 2020

NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro

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The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

  • Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
  • Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

Latest On Rockies’ Bullpen Outlook

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That Wade Davis is likely to be named the Rockies’ closer in and of itself isn’t shocking. Davis is one of the most accomplished closers of this era, changing the game with an incomparable three-year run of dominance with the Royals from 2014 to 2016. Over that span, Davis appeared in 185 contests, posting a 1.18 ERA/1.86 FIP. He gave up just three home runs in that time, and along with running mates Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera, showcased the potential for an uber-dominant bullpen to undergird a champion. Whether that unit was truly transcendent is a debate for another day, but they did, at the very least, help drive the transformation of bullpen usage that, in part, defines our current era of baseball.

And yet, Davis wasn’t the nominal closer on those Royals teams. Not until an injury to Holland forced him into the role. But he is, once again, the nominal closer for the Colorado Rockies despite the 8.65 ERA he posted in 50 games last season, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.

In the Rockies’ defense, putting Davis back into the closer role allows manager Bud Black to deploy Scott Oberg or Jairo Diaz in higher-leverage situations, though there are other ways to protect Davis, should that be the goal. Davis’ trajectory should be a fun one to track throughout the season, as it’s hard to imagine many more opportunities to watch a team roll it back after their closer posted an ERA over 8.00.

Also to consider, Davis is making a chunky $17MM this season. The Rockies could be free of their obligation to Davis with a $1MM buyout prior to 2021. Regardless, they’re gonna make every effort to put their investment to good use this season.

Rays’ Centerfield Situation

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Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot are hard-coded atop the centerfield depth chart for the Tampa Bay Rays, but both players come with question marks.

Despite Kiermaier’s statesman status as the longest-tenured Ray, the club has taken an aggressive approach to finding players capable of roaming the grass in center. He remains a defensive stud, but his health is perpetually in question and his offense has slipped over the past two seasons. His two-year slash line checks in at just .223/.280/.386 across 847 plate appearances. Despite roughly 21% less offensive production than average (79 wRC+),  Kiermaier’s A-1 defensive abilities and plus baserunning skills maintain his viability as a starter. Margot fits the same profile, but five years younger and he bats from the right side.

The Rays know what they like, apparently, because they are continuing to experiment with  power-shy Lucius Fox in centerfield, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Fox has been an infielder for most of his career, primarily at shortstop, though he’s gotten looks at second and third as well. Fox is a tremendous speedster, making him a fit for center from a raw tools standpoint, but he has yet to log any professional time in the outfield. It hasn’t clicked yet for Fox offensively with a .244/.337/.325 line across four seasons in the minor leagues.

Before acquiring Margot, the Rays also picked up Randy Arozarena in the Matthew Liberatore trade. Arozarena now seems likely to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s another option for center. He also happens to be coming off a monster year in Triple-A, where he hit .358/.435/.593 in 64 games after earning a promotion from Double-A. He excelled in a small-sample 19 games with the Cardinals at the end of the year, making their playoff roster as a speed option off the bench. Purely from a numbers standpoint, Arozarena could have the highest-ceiling of all their current options.

The Rays clearly prefer a gold glove roving-type in centerfield, but Austin Meadows could also fill in there in a pinch. It is telling, however, that he has only logged 13 innings in center since being acquired from the Pirates.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Devers, Blue Jays, Biggio, Yankees, Garcia

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The Red Sox have not broached the subject of a contract extension with Rafael Devers, though the player says he’s open to it, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Of course, that’s a boilerplate response from Devers, and one of the reasons agents are so important for players. Devers, represented by Nelson Montes de Oca of Rep 1 Baseball, can let a shoulder shrug do his talking while rightfully laying contract responsibilities at the feet of his agent. He will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this upcoming season, so he can expect to field extension questions on a regular basis, though neither party has cause to be in any particular rush.After playing a starring role in the Red Sox 2018 World Series win, Devers didn’t disappoint with a .311/.361/.555 line last season with 32 home runs and 115 RBIs. He also notched a league-leading 54 doubles. Devers isn’t set to hit free agency until after the 2023 season. Let’s see what else is going on in the AL East…

  • Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoya  says Cavan Biggio is the Blue Jays second baseman. Still, given how spring training takes shape, Biggio will be keeping his outfielder glove within reach. The particularly contingency to track, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter), is Joe Panik. Outside of those two, it’s not a deep field of second base contenders. Santiago Espinal, 25, hit .317/.360/.433 in his first taste of Triple-A in 2019, certainly showing enough to get a look this spring. Brandon Drury and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also have experience at the keystone. Gurriel is ticketed as the everyday starter in left field, which is a position of equal or greater need for the Blue Jays unless something clicks for a youngster like Billy McKinney or Forrest Wall. Travis Shaw, theoretically, could also see time at second base, but he’s more likely to get his at-bats at first, third, or the designated hitter spot. Ruben Tejada, 30, and Kevin Smith, 23, are also both in camp as non-roster invitees. 
  • Yankees top pitching prospect Deivi Garcia is pushing to fill the injury void in manager Aaron Boone’s rotation, and good as he’s looked thus far, Garcia is unlikely to win a rotation job out of spring camp, per Newday’s David Lennon. The undersized right-hander has done nothing but impress over the last calendar year, and he continues to do so in spring training, keeping hitters off-balance with a power heater. Garcia, 20, won’t be rushed to the majors, despite the injuries. Still, given his progress last year, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him in the majors sometime around his 21st birthday in May. That’s still too aggressive to be an expectant timetable – but given the uncertainty in the Yanks’ rotation and the level of competition in the division, an early debut for Garcia certainly can’t be ruled out. 

Injury Notes: Canning, Snell, Robles

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Griffin Canning’s ongoing health concerns will remain nebulous until tomorrow at the earliest. The message from Angels manager Joe Maddon certainly paints the situation as unusual, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter). Whether there’s mixed messaging coming from the medical staff themselves, or if this particular injury is causing undue confusion isn’t totally clear from Joe’s comments. What is clear is that the next step is assessing how Canning reacts to his throwing session today. Canning is one of the wild cards in the Angels’ rotation, and it’d certainly be disappointing to begin the season with a significant setback. An update is likely to come tomorrow from Angels camp. In the meantime, let’s check in on some less serious injury news around the game…

  • Rays ace Blake Snell received a cortisone shot in his “outer elbow,” tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He is expected to resume throwing as early as Tuesday. As important as Snell is to the Rays’ rotation, they also have admirable depth there with young players like Brendan McKay, Brent Honeywell Jr. and Anthony Banda likely on the outside looking in at this stage. Still, Topkin notes that the Rays are not worried about the southpaw’s health. Snell is coming off an injury-shortened season in which he made just 23 starts, pitching to a 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP. The ERA ended up higher than expected, but the peripherals point to Snell being close to the same guy who won the Cy Young award in 2018, albeit with less BABIP luck.
  • Washington Nationals centerfield Victor Robles underwent an MRI on his left oblique recently. Nats fans can breath easy as the results came back negative, per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato. Robles is already back in the cage, but the plan is to remain cautious for the time being. Given Robles’ importance to the Nats, it certainly makes sense to take their time with him this early in spring. The Nationals don’t have a ton of depth behind Robles, with Michael A. Taylor serving as his primary backup. While Taylor is an above-average defensive outfielder, his struggles at the plate led him to spend most of the 2019 season in Double-A.

Latest On Aaron Judge’s Shoulder Injury

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Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge underwent testing this morning to examine his right shoulder, reports Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters including Erik Boland of Newsday that all those tests—including an MRI—have come back negative thus far, but Judge will noentheless undergo further testing on Monday.

As of now, there’s still no timetable for when Judge might appear in his first Spring Training game, but Boone remains optimistic that his start right fielder will be ready for Opening Day.

Judge reportedly felt discomfort under his right pec while swinging this morning. The 27-year-old hasn’t taken batting practice on the field yet this spring, with the injury restricting him to taking swings in indoor cages. On Thursday, we heard that Judge would be out another week while recovering from the shoulder soreness.

The Yankees’ battles against injuries have been well-documented, and this spring has largely been a continuation of a 2019 season that was played shorthanded. If Judge’s shoulder issues turn out to be something serious, he would be the fifth core Yankee to hit the shelf with a significant ailment, joining outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks and pitchers Luis Severino and James Paxton.

Judge personally has had his own struggles with health, missing a significant portion of each of the last two seasons due to oblique and wrist injuries. After his historic rookie campaign in 2017, we’ve yet to see a full year of Judge, who’s in the inner circle of baseball’s best players when he’s on the field. Here’s hoping that 2020 is the year Judge gets a full year of action.

Dodgers Designate Yadier Alvarez For Assignment

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The Dodgers have designated right-hander Yadier Alvarez for assignment, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Alvarez was reinstated from the restricted list, but was designated in lieu of occupying a 40-man roster spot. He was expected to pitch yesterday, but was a late scratch from his first spring appearance.

The Dodgers awarded Alvarez with a $16MM bonus when he signed with the organization as an international amateur in July 2015. He quickly made a name for himself as a consensus top-100 prospect, but has failed to live up to that billing with three unproductive seasons plagued by persisting control issues.

Today marks yet another setback for the 23-year-old flamethrower.  He was placed on the restricted list in September of 2019, capping off a season in which injuries limited him to just two minor league starts. After showing up to Spring Training unexpected this year, he was expected to get a chance to compete for reps, but was unable to make his first appearance yesterday when he “didn’t feel right,” according to Dave Roberts.

Whether Alvarez’s future is with the Dodgers or another team, he’ll have a long way to go to mitigate concerns about his ability to be a productive Major Leaguer. Given his prospect pedigree and undeniable arm talent, Alvarez may be of interest to several teams who hope to unlock the scintillating potential Alvarez showed as a teenager. Given his profound control issues (career 5.1 BB/9 in the minors), it seems most likely that he winds up in a bullpen role, but he’s still just 23 and there’s no question that his stuff could play in any role.

Mild Calf Tear Sidelines Brandon Morrow For 10-14 Days

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The whack-a-mole game that is Brandon Morrow’s body continues to keep him from his comeback. He threw earlier this week and appeared to be on track, until a twinge of pain in his calf during a run revealed a mild tear, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (via Twitter). The injury is minor, with Morrow projected to be sidelined for a mere 10-14 days.

Still, given the absolute deluge of elbow, bicep, and back injuries Morrow has undergone over the last couple of seasons, it’s fair to sound the alarms here. This latest setback is innocuous enough in a vacuum, and yet it certainly takes on greater significance given Morrow’s recent history. Even a short-term injury such as this one has to put Morrow’s availability for opening day in question.

The Cubs bullpen is primed for a re-characterization after moving on from veterans like Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, and Mike Montgomery, who was dealt to Kansas City at last year’s deadline. Morrow, 35, re-joined the Cubs on a minor league deal after being physically unable to contribute for the entire second season of his original two-year deal with Chicago. At this point, he has to be considered a long shot to make the team, fun as his reemergence would be.

Red Sox Notes: Dalbec, Perez

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The identity of the Boston Red Sox is unclear now that Mookie Betts and David Price play for a different organization. The trickle down effect of losing a bat like Betts from a lineup will certainly affect the other Boston position players, but they still have a talented group of players on hand, starting with corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo. If that sweet-swinging pair can take their games to the next level, the Red Sox should once again roster an above-average offense in 2020. Believe it or not, the Red Sox were fourth in the majors in runs scored last season, so even without Betts, they could surprise some people. Let’s check in on some camp battles worth watching in Red Sox territory…

  • Bobby Dalbec won’t be on the opening day roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Dalbec turns 25 this June, so it’s entirely likely he’ll be ready for major league action at some point this season. With Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis already on the roster, Dalbec is blocked at his natural position of third base. He has taken some reps at first base the last couple of seasons, which could pave the way for a 2020 debut. Mitch Moreland has his foot on the bag for now, with Chavis potentially sliding over from second against tough lefties. Even so, with the Red Sox holding a club option for Moreland in 2021 and a long history of just adequate offensive production, Moreland is hardly a monolith at first. With the expectation of making the opening day roster apparently dashed, Dalbec can focus in on the larger task at hand – putting himself in a position to usurp a roster spot at some point during the 2020 season. 
  • Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.” 

East Notes: Phillies, Werth, Harper, Mets, Gimenez, Orioles, Martin

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Jayson Werth was not surprised when his bromantic partner Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies exactly a year ago yesterday, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. After years of traveling together, yukking it up from stadium to stadium, Werth knew Harper’s feelings about the league about as well as could be expected, and given his own positive feelings about his time in Philly (he won a ring there in 2008), Harper taking a shine to his mentor’s former club definitely tracks. Werth impacted both franchises in their most recent championship endeavors, directly for the Phils as he hit .309/.387/.582 during their ’08 run. For the Nats, he provided legitimacy to the franchise at the outset of their current run of competency. The Nationals have posted a winning record in each of the last eight seasons back to 2012, Werth’s second year with the club. That’s enough reminiscing for today. Let’s stay in the NL East and check in on some spring training news…

  • New York Mets prospect Andres Gimenez added a leg kick to his swing this winter in an effort to get more lift, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Gimenez will have to push the envelope to make his presence felt at the major league level this season, but he’s breathing down Amed Rosario’s neck. Robinson Cano is owed big money over the next four seasons, but there’s certainly the possibility that one of the Mets’ young shortstops could eventually move to the keystone. Despite some uncertainty regarding Rosario’s performance at the big league level, shortstop is a deep positional field for the Mets organizationally. Gimenez is the Mets’ 2nd-ranked prospect, per Fangraphs, behind only Ronny Mauricio, who trails Gimenez in timeline by roughly the same margin between Gimenez and Rosario. For now, Rosario, 24, will keep the position warm until Gimenez, 21, can take it. That is, until Mauricio, 19 in April, can get to it first. 
  • Jumping to the junior circuit, the Baltimore Orioles expect 2020 to be a development year for Richie Martin – out of the spotlight. With defensive wizard Jose Iglesias in-house to hold down shortstop – until July at least – Martin can make up for lost time in Triple-A. Last year’s Rule-5 selection from the A’s, Martin was pushed into a full season with the big league club last year, and his naïveté showed. Martin put up -0.6 rWAR and a 50 wRC+ in 2019 as their more-or-less everyday shortstop. Still, Martin isn’t giving up the possibility of winning a job at second base or in a utility role, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The team lacked middle infield depth last season, but they at least have more players vying for those roles this spring – likely leaving Martin on the outside looking in on opening day. Hanser Alberto has his name on one roster spot, while Andrew Velazquez and Ramon Urias are contenders for utility roles, while Stevie Wilkerson, Pat Valaika, Jose Rondon, and Dilson Herrera are all in camp as non-roster invitees. 

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