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Víctor Robles Suspension Reduced To Seven Games

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Mariners outfielder Víctor Robles has had his suspension reduced to seven games, reports Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. He will begin serving it tonight. He received a ten-game suspension over a week ago but played for the club while appealing the decision.

The suspension stemmed from an incident which occurred during Robles’s minor league rehab assignment. He had been hit by a pitch numerous times during his rehab, including a few pitches from right-hander Joey Estes, then of the Las Vegas Aviators. Jomboy Media did a thorough rundown of the events which led to Robles losing his temper. As his anger boiled over, he threw a bat towards Estes and his tantrum continued after that.

The league understandably punished Robles, though he exercised his right to appeal. The Mariners reinstated him from the injured list about a week ago while the appeals process was playing out. He has now had the suspension reduced but will need to miss seven contests.

For the Mariners, they will be punished beyond just not having Robles. When a player is suspended for an on-field infraction like this, the team doesn’t get to replace him on the roster, meaning the M’s will have to play with a 25-man roster. The one consolation of that situation is the calendar, as rosters expand from 26 to 28 on September 1st. Still, the M’s will have a shorter bench of just three guys for their weekend series in Cleveland, a key matchup against one of the clubs trying to catch Seattle for a Wild Card spot.

Seattle has Randy Arozarena in left field and Julio Rodríguez in center most days. Since coming off the IL, Robles has been in the right field mix alongside Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley. For the next seven games, those two will handle the spot, with Robles getting back into the mix after he’s served his sentence.

For Robles, it’s going to contribute to a mostly lost season. He dislocated his shoulder early in the campaign, an injury which cost him over four months. He has been limited to just 14 games and has hit .246/.267/.298 in his 60 plate appearances. He still has time to alter those numbers but will have to wait another week.

The M’s were surely hoping for more when they signed Robles last year. A former top prospect, Robles had struggled to click in the majors but seemed to break out with the M’s in 2024. He finished the year with a .328/.393/.467 in 77 games for Seattle. In the middle of that performance, the Mariners signed him to a two-year, $9.75MM deal for the 2025 and 2026 seasons with a 2027 club option.

Photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images

Mariners Place Dylan Moore On Unconditional Release Waivers

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TODAY: Moore has now been placed on unconditional release waivers, the Mariners announced.

AUGUST 23: The Mariners announced this afternoon that they’ve designated utility man Dylan Moore for assignment. Moore’s spot on both the 40-man and active roster will go to outfielder Victor Robles, who was activated from the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Robles was recently dealt a ten-game suspension for an incident where he threw his bat towards the pitcher’s mound during a minor league rehab game. Robles will need to serve that suspension in the majors, but Daniel Kramer of MLB.com writes that Robles is expected to be in tonight’s lineup while he appeals the suspension.

Moore, 33, was the longest-tenured player on the Mariners roster prior to his DFA. The utility man debuted with the club back in 2019 and appeared in 113 games before breaking out in a big way during the shortened 2020 season. Moore appeared in 38 games for Seattle that year, and slashed an excellent .255/.358/.496 (140 wRC+) with eight homers and 12 steals in 159 trips to the plate. That was enough to make him the second best hitter on the roster, behind only catcher Austin Nola.

He dropped back below average in 2021, but starting in 2022 enjoyed a three-year stretch of above-average offense (113 wRC+) that also saw him swipe 60 bases and win a Gold Glove award.  Even in his leaner offensive seasons of 2019 and ’21, Moore’s impressive versatility was enough to make him a valuable piece of the Mariners roster. He’s appeared at every position on the diamond except for catcher throughout his time in the majors, included a one-inning cameo on the mound during his rookie season.

That versatility combines with his speed (116 steals in 156 career attempts) to make Moore a valuable role player every season. Another notable trait of Moore’s that has made him valuable to the Mariners over the years is his knack for hitting well against southpaws. While he’s a career 92 wRC+ hitter against right-handed pitching, that jumps up to 110 when looking at his work in 675 plate appearances against lefties. His work against opposite-handed pitching has been even more impressive in recent years, as he slashed .233/.356/.425 (129 wRC+) against lefties during his peak seasons from 2022 to ’24.

All of that came apart in 2025, unfortunately. This year has been the worst of Moore’s career by a wide margin. He’s hit just .193/.263/.359 (78 wRC+) in 88 games while striking out at a career-high 35.7% clip. His typically strong defense all over the diamond hasn’t rated well by the metrics this year. Most concerning is his vanishing production against left-handed pitching; while his 91 wRC+ against righties this year is right in line with his career norms, Moore has hit just .149/.257/.309 (66 wRC+) with a 40.4% strikeout rate in 109 plate appearances against lefties this year.

That production simply wasn’t tenable for even a bench role, and now the Mariners have opted to part ways with the veteran just a few months before he otherwise would have reached free agency. Seattle will have one week to attempt to pass Moore through waivers, where he can be claimed by any MLB club willing to give him a spot on their roster and pay the remainder of his 2025 salary. Should he clear waivers unclaimed, the club could try to outright him to the minor leagues but he has more than enough service time to reject that outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Replacing Moore on the roster is Robles, who suffered a dislocated shoulder back in April and has been on the injured list ever since. A former top prospect who spent parts of eight seasons with the Nationals, Robles broke out with the Mariners at the age of 27 last year as he slashed .328/.393/.467 with 30 steals in just 77 games. That elite production was enough to earn Robles a two-year extension with the club, but year one of that deal hasn’t gone especially well between his lengthy stay on the IL and the aforementioned suspension he incurred during his rehab assignment. With Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez entrenched in left and center field respectively, Robles figures to share time with Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley in right going forward.

Víctor Robles Given 10-Game Suspension For Bat-Throwing Incident

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Major league baseball announced that Mariners outfielder Víctor Robles has received a 10-game suspension and an undisclosed fine from the league. The suspension will begin as soon as Robles is reinstated from the injured list, though Robles has filed an appeal and the suspension is being held in abeyance until the appeals process is complete. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported these details prior to the official announcement. Divish notes that the M’s would have to play a man short during the suspension.

Robles has been on the injured list for most of the year. Back in early April, he made a sensational catch in San Francisco but crashed into the sideline netting and dislocated his left shoulder, causing a small fracture in the humeral head of said shoulder.

A week ago, he was finally able to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma. During that week, he was hit by pitches multiple times, as shown in this video breakdown from Jomboy Media. Though he was hit five times, only three of them were technically counted as hit-by-pitches, with the other two counting as swings. Regardless, the final incident saw Robles hit by Joey Estes of the Las Vegas Aviators. Of the five times Robles was hit, three of them were out of the hand of Estes, though the final two were counted as swinging strikes.

Regardless of how it was scored, Robles was clearly upset and threw his bat towards the pitcher’s mound. It doesn’t appear as though it hit Estes or anyone else, but major league baseball is understandably taking a firm stance against a player using his bat in this dangerous manner and sending Robles a message.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke to members of the media, including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, noting that the club tentatively planned to reinstate Robles from the IL next week but those plans may change with the suspension. Divish suggests that perhaps the best plan is to reinstate Robles on September 1st, so that the M’s can at least play with a 27-man roster, though that would push his reinstatement into the middle of September. Reinstating him earlier would mean playing with a 25-man roster for a while, though that would also mean Robles would be able to be reinstated for more games.

It’s also unclear how long the appeals process will take. Sometimes, players appealing a suspension will hang in limbo until their team goes to New York, where the MLB head offices are located. The M’s don’t play in New York again this year, so it’s not clear when the appeal would be scheduled for. Robles being in the minors could also complicate factors. The M’s would surely love for the appeal to drag out into the winter and for Robles to serve his suspension next year, since they are currently in a playoff race, though MLB presumably wouldn’t let it play out like that.

Photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images

Mariners Select Casey Lawrence

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The Mariners announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Casey Lawrence. Fellow righty Sauryn Lao was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma in a corresponding active roster move. To get Lawrence onto the 40-man, outfielder Víctor Robles was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Robles suffered a left shoulder dislocation a couple of weeks ago and isn’t expected back for several months.

Lawrence and the Mariners seem to have an arrangement that is working for both of them. The season is only a few weeks old but this is already the third time he has been selected to the roster. He signed a minor league deal with the M’s in the winter and was called up to the majors on April 9th. A few days later, he was designated for assignment, cleared waivers and elected free agency. He returned on a fresh minor league deal and was back on the roster by April 18th. Once again, he was quickly DFA’d and cleared waivers but is now back on the roster a third time.

Around those transactions, he has served as a multi-inning reliever for the club. He has logged five innings across three appearances thus far, having allowed two earned runs. By continually shuffling him on and off the roster, the Mariners can keep fresh arms moving in and out of the bullpen.

Lawrence is out of options, which necessitates him continually being removed from the 40-man. He has the right to elect free agency as a player with a previous career outright but seems content to circling back to the Mariners each time. From his perspective, he gets to add a bit of major league pay and service time, not a bad outcome for a 37-year-old journeyman.

Emerson Hancock, the least established member of the Seattle rotation, takes the ball tonight for the M’s at Fenway Park. If he gets into trouble, Lawrence will likely be called upon to sop up some innings and save the rest of the bullpen before tomorrow’s day game.

Photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear, Imagn Images

Víctor Robles Likely To Miss About 12 Weeks

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The Mariners today provided an update on outfielder Víctor Robles, who was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to a left shoulder dislocation. Today’s update says that the dislocation caused a small fracture in the humeral head in his left shoulder. The club believes that the fracture will heal without surgery, though Robles will be continually monitored to ensure that is the case. Even if he does continue to avoid surgery, the club estimates it will take him six weeks to heal, followed by a six-week rehab process. That suggests he will miss about 12 weeks even in a best-case scenario.

Of course, if there are any setbacks along the way or if it’s determined that Robles will instead require surgical intervention, that timeline would change. In either scenario, given that Robles is already looking at an absence that would extend to around the All-Star break, doubts about his ability to return this season could arise. For now, however, the Mariners are surely relieved that the injury doesn’t look to be season-ending in nature.

Robles, 27, was a longtime top prospect with the Nationals who debuted in as a 20-year-old in 2017 but never quite found his footing as a regular in Washington. He looked on the cusp of a breakout when he hit .258/.328/.430 with plus defense in 2018-19, his age-21 and age-22 seasons, but in 1124 plate appearances from 2020 through the time of his release last May, he batted only .222/.301/.308.

The Mariners signed Robles to a big league deal early last June and were almost immediately rewarded for their show of faith. He filled a bench role early on but played so well in a limited role that he forced himself into the everyday lineup before long. In 77 games with Seattle, Robles turned in a superlative .322/.393/.467 batting line with four homers, 20 doubles and an eye-catching 30 steals in just 31 tries.

Robles was never going to sustain the .388 average on balls in play that propped up his batting line, but he also showed vastly improved contact skills, cutting the 24% strikeout rate he’d displayed from 2020-24 (27.3% with the Nats last year) all the way to 16.8% as a Mariner.

With Seattle, Robles proved much more aggressive, increasing his swing rate at pitches over the plate by several percentage points and also improving his contact rate on said swings. He swung at only 49% of pitches over the plate up through the 2023 season and made contact on 84.5% of those swings; with the Mariners, he offered at 53% of pitches in the zone and made contact at an 87.1% clip.

Even with some expected regression, the Mariners’ version of Robles looked like a more balanced hitter than the one who’d spent several years struggling in D.C. The Mariner front office clearly believed that to be the case, as Robles inked a two-year, $9.75MM contract covering his first two free agent years last summer. The deal spans the 2025-26 campaigns and includes a club option for 2027.

Now, Robles will spend around half of that contract’s first season (at least) on the shelf. He’d been slotted in as the everyday right fielder with Randy Arozarena in left field and Julio Rodriguez in center field. The Robles injury likely paves the way for more Luke Raley to see more outfield time. He’d originally been expected to play more first base in 2025, but a big performance in spring training from Rowdy Tellez forced the Mariners to reevalute. Seattle released Mitch Haniger and committed to Tellez and Raley splitting the load between first base and DH.

Raley and Dominic Canzone figure to get more time in the outfield. It’s also possible that utilitymen Miles Mastrobuoni and Dylan Moore could log some reps there. All three of Raley, Canzone and Mastrobuoni are left-handed hitters, so a platoon arrangement among them isn’t likely. Raley and the righty-hitting Moore could make sense as an on-paper platoon, but Moore has been used as an infielder exclusively thus far and played a career-low 138 innings in the outfield last year.

However it shakes out, the Robles injury is a significant setback for a Mariners club that currently ranks 21st in the majors in runs scored (36). It’s also likely to result in a defensive downturn; the early marks from Robles this season have been uncharacteristically below average, but he’s generally graded as a strong defender in center and is viewed as a potential plus defender in a corner.

Mariners Outright Hagen Danner

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Hagen Danner cleared waivers and will be outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma. The righty had been designated for assignment last week when the club added Luis F. Castillo to the roster. Seattle also placed Victor Robles on the 10-day injured list with a dislocated left shoulder and recalled Dominic Canzone — moves that were reported yesterday.

Players have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency if they have either a previous career outright or at least three years of major league service time. Neither applies to Danner, so he’ll stick with the Mariners as depth but without taking up a roster spot.

The M’s are likely glad about that. They were intrigued enough by Danner to grab him off waivers from the Blue Jays in January. His track record isn’t long, for a few reasons. He was drafted as a catcher and tried his hand at that spot for a few years before moving to the mound. Since taking the hill, he has posted some decent rate numbers but has also been held back by some injuries.

In the majors, he has just one third of an inning to his name. In the minors, he has tossed 116 2/3 innings from 2021 to the present. Thanks to various injuries, he hasn’t hit the 40-inning mark in any individual season. But he has a 2.93 earned run average, 28.3% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate.

Over the course of a long season, the Mariners will surely need fresh arms from time to time, as all clubs do. If Danner gets back to the majors, he still has one option year and just 52 days of service time.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Victor Robles Carted Off Field With Shoulder Injury

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10:47pm: Ari Alexander of KPRC2 reports that Canzone is set to be recalled to the big leagues by the Mariners. That seemingly suggests that Robles is ticketed for the injured list, which Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported was likely earlier this evening, though no official move has been made to this point.

6:08pm: Mariners outfielder Victor Robles made an outstanding catch late in today’s game against the Giants, but the moment quickly turned worrisome when Robles crashed into the right field netting in foul territory. As noted by multiple reporters, including Adam Jude of The Seattle Times and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, Robles exited the game and was carted off the field clutching his left arm. As noted by Jude, manager Dan Wilson told reporters that Robles suffered a shoulder injury and is undergoing initial tests to determine the exact issue.

It’s potentially devastating news for the Mariners, for whom Robles has emerged as a spark plug in all aspects of the game since he was signed by Seattle back in June after being released by the Nationals earlier that year. In 77 games for Seattle the rest of the way, Robles hit a phenomenal .328/.393/.467 with a wRC+ of 154. He also played solid defense across all three outfield spots and went 30-for-31 on the basepaths en route to 3.2 fWAR in just 262 trips to the plate for the Mariners last year. It was such a strong performance that the club signed Robles to a two-year extension that guarantees him $9.75MM and keeps him under team control through the end of the 2027 season thanks to a $9MM team option for a third year.

That 2024 breakout season represented a remarkable comeback for Robles, who was considered the best prospect in the Nationals’ system and among the top prospects in the entire sport as he came up through the minor leagues alongside Juan Soto. Unfortunately, injuries have dogged Robles all throughout his career. He appeared in just 530 games in parts of eight seasons in D.C. due to elbow, ankle, back, and hamstring injuries among other ailments. He’s only had one full season in the majors over the years, his 2019 rookie season with the club, and since then has only reached even 400 plate appearances in a season a single time.

It’s impossible to say with certainty to what extent the injuries led to Robles, who hit a disappointing .236/.311/.356 during his time with the Nationals, to under perform the expectations associated with his top prospect status. Even so, it’s without a doubt that both he and the Mariners were surely hoping his fresh start in Seattle last year would afford him the opportunity to prove himself healthy and effective in the big leagues over an extended period of time. While even an approximate timetable for Robles’s return to action won’t be clear until the Mariners provide more details regarding the nature of his injury, it seems safe to say that Robles will miss at least some time due to the injury.

In terms of options to replace Robles in the lineup, they’re relatively few and far between. Dylan Moore has gotten off to a hot start this year but is currently stepping in for Jorge Polanco at third base while Polanco nurses a sore knee. Dominic Canzone is on the 40-man roster at Triple-A and capable of playing the outfield, or the club could move Luke Raley from first base back into the outfield while giving first base to some combination of Donovan Solano, Austin Shenton, and Tyler Locklear. Regardless of which options they ultimately go with to fill in for Robles while he’s out, an extended absence from the outfielder could be tough for the club to handle given their relatively lackluster depth options on the positional side of things.

Mariners Notes: Servais, Robles, Rodriguez, Crawford

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6:41pm: Crawford is beginning his rehab assignment earlier than expected, as Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto relayed this evening that the shortstop will be in the Rainier’s lineup this evening batting second and playing shortstop.

6:00pm: The Mariners parted ways with longtime manager Scott Servais earlier this week, and the now ex-manager spoke with reporters on the club’s beat (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) yesterday regarding his time in Seattle and the club’s decision to part ways with him.

Servais indicated during his remarks that he had previously thought that if the club missed the playoffs this year, that could lead to the end of his nine-year tenure as the Mariners’ manager. Even, so Servais expressed surprise at the club’s decision to part ways with him midseason, noting (as relayed by Kramer) that his “expectation was that [he’d] get to finish out the year” while also adding that he first heard of his dismissal via news alert on his phone prior to his in-person meeting with Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, an experience that Servais described as “alarming.”

The 57-year-old was first hired to lead the Mariners back in 2016. Servais had a 681-642 record during his time at the helm of the Mariners, good for a .515 winning percentage despite the fact that his teams made the postseason just once back in 2021 and never won the AL West under his guidance. Despite that relative lack of on-field success, Servais received votes for the AL Manager of the Year award three times during his tenure with the Mariners, including a third-place finish in 2022 and a second-place finish behind two-time winner Kevin Cash back in 2021.

Per Kramer, Servais indicated to reporters that he hopes his split with Seattle won’t mark the end of his managerial career. At least one job opportunity is set to be available this winter after the White Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol earlier this month. Grady Sizemore is currently acting as the club’s interim manager, although White Sox brass have already indicated that the club expects to look for a long-term solution outside of the organization. There’s also some level of uncertainty in the Rockies dugout as the club waits until after the season to discuss the future of manager Bud Black amid what officially became the club’s sixth consecutive losing season yesterday with their 0-3 loss to the Yankees.

More from around Seattle…

  • The club was dealt a bit of an injury scare earlier today when outfielder Victor Robles was struck by a pitch on his right hand during today’s game against the Giants. He exited the game after the incident, but the club fortunately announced shortly thereafter that x-rays had come back negative on the former top prospect’s hand and that he had been diagnosed with a right index finger contusion. The 27-year-old has impressed with a .280/.340/.413 slash line and a 14-0 record on the basepaths in 50 games with the Mariners since signing with them back in June, and while losing their leadoff hitter for any amount of time will surely be a blow, Seattle is a bit better equipped to handle an absence from Robles after young phenom Julio Rodriguez returned to center field yesterday. The 23-year-old has been back from a recent high ankle sprain for two weeks now but had been relegated to DH-only duties until yesterday, when he was finally cleared to return to the field. That kicked Robles over to right field, which now figures to be covered by some combination of Mitch Haniger, Dominic Canzone, and Luke Raley as he nurses his injured finger.
  • While it’s possible that today’s finger contusion could keep Robles out of the lineup for the time being, the Mariners did receive some refreshing injury news yesterday when reporters spoke to shortstop J.P. Crawford as relayed by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker. Crawford took batting practice on the field yesterday and, in conversation with reporters afterwards, indicated that he could begin a rehab assignment early in this next coming week. Crawford has been out for just over a month now while nursing a fractured pinkie finger. The 29-year-old was in the midst of a down season when bitten by the injury bug, with a .204/.299/.347 slash line in 77 games this year, and switch-hitting rookie Leo Rivas has impressed in 26 games while covering for the club’s regular shortstop. Still, Crawford’s return should improve the club’s overall infield mix by allowing Rivas to help carry the load at second and third base alongside Jorge Polanco and Josh Rojas.

MLBTR Podcast: The White Sox Fire Their Manager, Víctor Robles Extended, And The Marlins’ Front Office

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

We had some technical difficulties during this recording, so the audio is of a lower quality than usual. Apologies for that, but the source has been discovered and everything will be back to normal next week. This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will Camilo Doval pitch again this season (or ever) for the Giants? (25:10)
  • What ever happened to Archie Bradley this season? (29:20)
  • Well, if your offense stops failing you, let the pitching failures take the spotlight! As a Braves fan, I am feeling quite trampled after all the high expectations that this season came with. Should I forget any postseason hopes? (31:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mariners Sign Víctor Robles To Extension

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The Mariners announced that they have signed outfielder Víctor Robles to a contract extension. It reportedly guarantees him $9.75MM over the next two years, which includes a $1.25MM signing bonus. He can earn an extra $2MM via bonuses/escalators, $1MM in each season, $500K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $500K for 600 plate appearances. The Mariners will have a $9MM club option for 2027. Robles is represented by Republik Sports.

The deal is a demonstration of what a remarkable turnaround it’s been for Robles in the past two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for assignment at the end of May. They reportedly then explored trades with other clubs but couldn’t find any takers. Since Robles had enough service time to reject an outright assignment while keeping what remained of this year’s $2.65MM salary, the Nats simply released him.

The Mariners took a shot on him, which essentially came with no risk. The Nats were still on the hook for most of his salary, leaving the Mariners to pay just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats pay.

For that minimal investment, the Mariners have already been hugely rewarded. In 42 games for Seattle, he has three home runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% better than league average offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting average on balls in play is definitely on the high side but he’s only striking out at a 16.3% rate and that would be strong offense even with a bit of regression.

That’s especially true because Robles is capable of providing value even when he doesn’t have the bat in his hands. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and provided competent glovework in the outfield, playing all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth 1.2 wins above replacement already in his brief stint with the Mariners.

That has been especially valuable for a club that has struggled to generate offense this year. They have arguably the best pitching staff in the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops in the majors, but the lack of punch at the plate has kept them fighting for their lives. They are 63-56, effectively even with the Astros in the division but 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

Robles was an impending free agent but the Mariners have seen enough that they are willing to keep him around for another two and maybe three years. Of course, they’re not just making this decision based on the 42 games he has played since changing uniforms. During his time with the Nats, he was once considered one of the best prospects in the sport. He was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as fifth overall in 2018.

He seemed to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, helping the Nats win the World Series that year. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit below par, translating to a 92 wRC+, but he was able to produce 3.7 fWAR thanks to his defense and speed. He stole 28 bases on the year, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Average. Given that he was only 22 years old at the time, it seemed fair to expect that he was only scratching the surface of the player he was about to become.

Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his performance dropped significantly for the next few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend some time on the injured list but that was a significant sample size of 965 plate appearances.

Despite those struggles, the Nats stuck by him, continually tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He seemed to be getting things back on track last year, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, but he was limited to just 36 games on the season because of back spasms in the lumbar spine. Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM salary for 2024, hoping that Robles could both stay healthy and put his past struggles behind him. But this year got out to a shaky start, as Robles missed about a month due to a left hamstring strain and hit just .120/.281/.120 in 14 games for Washington before they decided to cut him loose.

The Mariners have been rewarded with the version of Robles that the Nats thought they had many times in the past. The combination of his past prospect pedigree and his recent performance clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can keep producing for a few more years. There is obviously some risk there based on how poorly he has performed at times in the past, but they are also not sticking their neck out with vast sums of money.

The guarantee works out to less than $5MM per year, which is fairly modest in baseball terms. Even if Robles takes a step back at the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of resources. And if he can continue to keep hitting, then there’s plenty of upside for the M’s.

For Robles, he is perhaps leaving a bit of money on the table here, but it’s also understandable that he would want to lock in some significant earnings. If he had continued to perform at this level for the rest of the season, he likely would have earned a larger guarantee than the one he’s agreeing to now. But as he surely knows from the winding path of his career, it’s not a guarantee that it will continue to go so well. After all, it was just two months ago that all the clubs in the league passed on the chance to acquire him while he’s making a fairly modest salary. If Robles had suffered another injury or simply struggled at the plate down the stretch, he may not have been able to secure a guarantee of even this size.

He also still has future earning power that he could tap into if he keeps performing. Due to debuting at such a young age, he’s still just 27 years old. This deal will cover his age-28 and -29 seasons with the option giving the M’s a chance to control him through his age-30 season. If he’s able to keep up his all-around performance through the course of this contract, he could line himself up for a more sizable deal at that point. If the option is triggered and he hits those escalators, he will have already banked $20.75MM off this deal.

The Mariners also get a headstart on bolstering their future outfield. They already have Julio Rodríguez locked in for many years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable via arbitration through 2026. Mitch Haniger has one more year on his deal after this and the club also has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone in the mix, though Raley has been getting a lot of playing time at first base lately. Justin Turner figures to be in the designated hitter spot a lot for the rest of this year but is an impending free agent.

It’s arguably a crowded mix but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is one of the game’s most active decision makers and could deal from this group in the offseason if the opportunity presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a player who is perhaps breaking out, but without breaking the bank. Robles, meanwhile, has secured himself a really nice bit of financial security that didn’t seem possible just a few short weeks ago.

Yancen Pujols first reported that the two sides had agreed to an extension with a $9.75MM guarantee (Spanish-language link on X). Jorge Castillo of ESPN had the two-year length, club option and $2MM in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com provided the specifics of the bonuses/escalators as well as the signing bonus (X link).

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